Tuesday, 21 July 2020

A Vaccine By Christmas. 2019’s Back!


Baltic Dry Index. 1678 -32  Brent Crude 43.33
Spot Gold 1819

Coronavirus Cases 21/7/20 World 14,862,410
Deaths 613,298

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get."

Warren Buffett.

Hopium’s back, risk on! Buy more, buy everything! We will all have a vaccine by Christmas, goes the new hopium. That “V” shaped recovery is just weeks away.

To say that we are in the midst of a new stock mania and bubble, is something of a classic understatement. The hopium pushed the Nasdaq Composite up 2.51% to a record closing high on Monday.

What could possibly go wrong?

Asian shares extend gains as investors count on stimulus, vaccines

July 21, 2020 / 1:03 AM
TOKYO/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian shares advanced on Tuesday as prospects of a deal by European Union leaders to jointly fund recovery of their economies and hopes for a coronavirus vaccine lifted risk appetite.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.6% while MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 1.5% to edge near its four-month peak hit earlier this month.

On Wall Street, tech shares jumped after several days in the doldrums, pushing the Nasdaq Composite up 2.51% to a record closing high on Monday. The S&P500 also hit a five-month peak.

Euro Stoxx 50 futures gained 0.25% in Asian trade to stand near their highest since early March.

---- “The U.S. will likely adopt stimulus by the first week of August. We don’t know its exact size but I bet it will be something like $1 to $1.5 trillion.”

Advisers to President Donald Trump and congressional Democrats were set to discuss the next steps in responding to the coronavirus crisis on Tuesday.

Although coronavirus infections have surged in recent weeks in the country’s south and west, investors hope another economic package, which will come after $3 trillion in stimulus earlier this year, will help the economy tide over a difficult period.

Hopes that vaccines against the COVID-19 disease might be ready by the end of year also supported risk assets, following promising early data from trials of three potential vaccines.

The positive mood, however, faces more reality checks later this month as earnings season will be in full swing in many countries in coming weeks.

“If companies give stronger guidance than market expectations, that will be positive for stocks. But is that really possible under the current uncertain environment?,” said Tatsushi Maeno, senior strategist at Okasan Asset Management.

---- Gold held firm at $1,818 per ounce, having hit a nine-year high of $1,820.4 on Monday.

The metal retains its strength as an ultimate store of value as central banks around the world have committed themselves to an unprecedented level of money-printing to shore up pandemic-hit economies.

Brent crude ticked up 0.1% to $43.35 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was flat at $40.94.

U.S. markets hit highs amid record gains by Amazon, positive vaccine results

July 20, 2020 / 5:23 PM
July 20 (UPI) -- U.S. markets rose to their highest marks since February amid rising tech stocks and optimism surrounding a COVID-19 vaccine.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 8.92 points, or 0.03%, while the S&P 500 turned positive for the year after gaining 0.84% and the Nasdaq Composite hit a record high as increased 2.51%, it's highest boost since April. 

Tech stocks helped to push the Nasdaq higher as Amazon skyrocketed up 7.93%, its largest gain since December 2018, while Microsoft rose 4.3%, Alphabet climbed 3.1%, Apple grew 2.11%, Netflix increased 1.91% and Facebook ending the day up 1.40%.

Pfizer and BioNTech reported positive results from a joint coronavirus vaccine candidate test saying it "elicited high, dose level-dependent SARS-CoV-2-neutralizing titers and RBD-binding IgG concentrations after the second dose."

Pfizer stock rose 0.69 percent and BioNTech increased 3.46 percent.

A vaccine candidate from Oxford University and AstraZeneca also reported positive results causing AstraZeneca stock to climb to a record following the news, but shares ultimately fell 3.98% after analysts said the data failed to meet expectations

In extended trading on Monday afternoon, IBM stock increased 6% after the company exceeded analysts' expectations in its second-quarter earnings report.

The company reported earnings of $2.18 per share and revenue of $18.12 billion.
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/07/20/US-markets-hit-highs-amid-record-gains-by-Amazon-positive-vaccine-results/5541595276925/

In European news, a disunited Europe finally reached a recovery deal. Now comes the fight over who gets what and on what terms.

EU reaches deal on post-pandemic recovery after marathon summit

July 21, 2020 / 4:58 AM
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - European Union leaders reached a deal on a massive stimulus plan for their coronavirus-blighted economies at a pre-dawn meeting on Tuesday after a fractious summit that went through the night and into its fifth day.

Summit chairman Charles Michel tweeted “Deal” shortly after the 27 leaders reached agreement at a 5.15 a.m. (0315 GMT) plenary session. 

While another official present at the summit said: “Conclusions adopted!”.

---- But the rhetorical skirmishing faded on Monday, and the leaders homed in on an agreement on the stimulus package and, linked to it, the EU’s 2021-2027 common budget of around 1.1 trillion euros.

Hopes for a deal to help address Europe’s deepest recession since World War Two sent Italy’s borrowing costs to their lowest since early March and pushed the euro to a 19-week high.

Michel proposed that within the 750 billion euro recovery fund, 390 billion should be non-repayable grants, down from 500 billion originally proposed, and the rest in repayable loans.

The Netherlands had pushed for a veto on aid for countries that backslide on economic reform, but diplomats said it was now willing to back a “stop-the-clock” mechanism by which member states could put a brake on disbursements for three months and have them reviewed.

Disbursements will also be linked to governments observing the rule of law. Hungary, backed by eurosceptic ally Poland, had threatened to veto the package if funds were made conditional on upholding democracy, but diplomats said a way forward on that was found.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-summit/eu-reaches-deal-on-post-pandemic-recovery-after-marathon-summit-idUKKCN24M0DF

Finally, Bermuda beckons.  Bermuda says to America, “Give me your tired, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, of Covid-19.”

Bermuda Pitches Island Life as Escape From Pandemic Madness
Ezra Fieser Jul 18 2020, 3:44 AM

(Bloomberg) -- For anyone tired of dodging coronavirus, sick of arguments over masks or just fed up with the home office grind, Bermuda has an offer: a year at the beach. The British Overseas Territory of 64,000, known for its pink sand shorelines and balmy climate, is offering one-year, renewable residency certificates for remote workers and post-secondary students. It’s pitching itself as a refuge as Covid-19 cases continue to climb in other countries and upend rules about where people can work.

“The world is changing, and we want people we consider long-term visitors to come to Bermuda,” Premier David Burt said in a telephone interview. Newly-minted temporary residents may also provide a boost at a time when the pandemic is roiling the economy, which is heavily dependent on tourism, the government said in a statement. Burt said life on the islands will appeal to foreigners because Bermuda managed to contain the spread of Covid-19 through rigorous testing, quarantine-monitoring bracelets, and rules on social distancing and mask wearing. Bermuda had less than 150 confirmed Covid cases and nine deaths.

As of Friday the island had just six active cases of the disease, Burt said. “Unlike places where you have to worry about going to the supermarket, here we have very clear rules,” he said. WFH Forever As the pandemic continues to rage across the U.S. many companies have ruled out an immediate return to offices for employees who can work remotely. Others, including Silicon Valley giants Facebook Inc. and Twitter Inc., enacted policies allowing work from indefinitely.

 Bermuda’s program, which costs $263 and will begin Aug. 1, will be marketed in big cities across the East Coast, including New York, Toronto, Boston and Miami. Barbados, an island in the eastern Caribbean, has floated a similar plan. Burt said Bermuda has a history of temporary residencies for foreigners, having long offered one-year certificates to retirees.

The new program will also include post-secondary students, from undergraduate to doctorate level -- potentially attracting college-goers whose schools plan to offer only remote learning in the next academic year. Workers approved for the one-year residency program must have health insurance and be employed by a “legitimate” overseas firm or their own company, the government says.
https://www.bloombergquint.com/pursuits/bermuda-pitches-island-life-as-escape-from-pandemic-madness

But the Bahamas is taking a different approach.

Bahamas Bans Flights From USA and Closes Beaches Due To Surge In Cases

Kashlee Kucheran July 19, 2020
Since reopening on July 1, 2020, The Bahamas has seen a surge of 49 news cases of Covid-19, making the total confirmed cases now at 153.

Prime Minister Hubert Minnis held a press conference today, July 19, to update Bahamians and tourists on the current state of affairs and major changes he is making to protect the country.
PM Minnis clearly stated that swift action needed to be taken in order to save the Bahamas from a complete lockdown. 

One of the most drastic updates he is making, effective Wednesday July 22, 2020, is to ban ALL international flights except for those coming from Canada, the UK and nations within the EU. 
This travel ban will most greatly affect travelers from the USA, who have been permitted to travel to the island since its reopening on July 1st. 
More

For now, ignore the harsh reality of the real world, party on. The American’s and Europeans are both about to bring out the punchbowl again. Fiat money is about to flow like water rushing over Niagara Falls.

Well maybe, but a vaccine’s not certain by Christmas nor is its lasting effectiveness a sure thing.

What is a sure thing is that we still have massive unemployment, with many more being kept in employment mostly paid for by the nation states.

Our airline industry still remains mostly grounded, with new planes piling up unsold on airfields across America and Europe. Autos are piling up too, because few people or firms are buying even the scaled down levels of new production.

And let’s not visit the sunk cruise line industry, hotels, tourism, and hospitality.

With the fiat money spigots all getting turned on again, I wonder where gold and silver will finish the year?

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Coronavirus: Protein treatment trial 'a breakthrough'

The preliminary results of a clinical trial suggest a new treatment for Covid-19 dramatically reduces the number of patients needing intensive care, according to the UK company that developed it.

The treatment from Southampton-based biotech Synairgen uses a protein called interferon beta which the body produces when it gets a viral infection.

The protein is inhaled directly into the lungs of patients with coronavirus, using a nebuliser, in the hope that it will stimulate an immune response.

The initial findings suggest the treatment cut the odds of a Covid-19 patient in hospital developing severe disease - such as requiring ventilation - by 79%.

Patients were two to three times more likely to recover to the point where everyday activities were not compromised by their illness, Synairgen claims.

It said the trial also indicated "very significant" reductions in breathlessness among patients who received the treatment.

In addition, the average time patients spent in hospital is said to have been reduced by a third, for those receiving the new drug - down from an average of nine days to six days.

The double-blind trial involved 101 volunteers who had been admitted for treatment at nine UK hospitals for Covid-19 infections.

Half of the participants were given the drug, the other half got what is known as a placebo - an inactive substance.

Unconfirmed results

Stock market rules mean Synairgen is obliged to report the preliminary results of the trial.

The results have not been published in a peer-reviewed journal, nor has the full data been made available; so the BBC cannot confirm the claims made for the treatment.

But if the results are as the company says, it will be a very important step forward in the treatment of coronavirus infections.

The scientist in charge of the trial, Tom Wilkinson, says if the results are confirmed in larger studies the new treatment will be "a game changer".

The trial was relatively small but the signal that the treatment benefits patients was unusually strong, he says.
More

Oxford vaccine: Early trials suggest “double protection” from coronavirus

The vaccine being trialled at the University of Oxford has been shown to produce antibodies and ‘killer T-cells’, according to reports.
By Alexander McNamara, PA Science  16th July, 2020 at 09:38

Human trials of a potential coronavirus vaccine being developed by scientists in Oxford are reported to have shown promising results.

The researchers believe they have made a breakthrough after discovering the jab could provide “double protection” against the virus, the Daily Telegraph reported.

The newspaper said the phase 1 trial in healthy adult volunteers, which began in April, showed the vaccine generated an immune response, with blood samples indicating it stimulated the body to produce both antibodies and “killer T-cells”.

It came as Health Secretary Matt Hancock said teams were working towards a “best-case scenario” of a vaccine being made available some time this year, although he conceded it was more likely in 2021.

David Carpenter, chairman of the Berkshire Research Ethics Committee, which approved the Oxford trial and continues to work with scientists on amendments, told the Telegraph that the team were “absolutely on track”.

“They can strengthen findings by targeting people in hospitals, healthcare professionals, where the spread is [more] likely to happen,” he said.

“Nobody can put final dates… things might go wrong but the reality is that by working with a big pharma company, that vaccine could be fairly widely available around September and that is the sort of target they are working on.”

But a source told the newspaper that the results did not yet prove that the Oxford vaccine, known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, provides long-lasting immunity.

“I can tell you that we now know the Oxford vaccine covers both bases – it produces both a T cell and an antibody response,” the source said.

“It’s the combination of these two that will hopefully keep people safe. So far, so good. It’s an important moment. But we still have a long way to go.”
More
https://www.sciencefocus.com/news/oxford-vaccine-early-trials-suggest-double-protection-from-coronavirus/

Hong Kong third wave: Covid-19 bed situation ‘critical’ as public hospitals near capacity at first-tier isolation wards

·         Hospital Authority warns it could run out of the isolation beds this week, with first-tier occupancy at 77 per cent
·         Nearing capacity has already forced the transfer of some patients, with Hong Kong in grip of third wave of Covid-19
Published: 1:11pm, 21 Jul, 2020

Hong Kong may run out of first-tier isolation beds for coronavirus patients this week, the Hospital Authority warned on Tuesday as it scrambles to open new facilities in the community to cope with the city’s worsening Covid-19 crisis.

Describing the capacity situation as critical, the authority said it had already transferred about a dozen confirmed patients in a stable condition to second-tier isolation wards to create room for those newly infected.

It came as Hong Kong’s tally of infections  hit 1,958 on Monday , a sharp increase of more than 600 cases over two weeks, while another 46 people tested preliminary positive. The number of coronavirus-related deaths in the city stands at 12.

“Isolation beds in public hospitals are becoming limited and the situation is critical,” said Ian Cheung Tsz-fung, the Hospital Authority’s chief manager of cluster performances.

“As there are more elderly patients in this wave, we might use up our isolation beds much sooner than we did in March. This week is the key.”

First-tier isolation wards offer higher levels of infection control than second-tier ones, with the former prioritised for those most seriously ill.
More


Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Atomtronic device could probe boundary between quantum, everyday worlds

Clouds of supercooled atoms offer highly sensitive rotation sensors and tests of quantum mechanics

Date: July 17, 2020

Source: DOE/Los Alamos National Laboratory

Summary: A new device that relies on flowing clouds of ultracold atoms promises potential tests of the intersection between the weirdness of the quantum world and the familiarity of the macroscopic world we experience every day.

A new device that relies on flowing clouds of ultracold atoms promises potential tests of the intersection between the weirdness of the quantum world and the familiarity of the macroscopic world we experience every day. The atomtronic Superconducting QUantum Interference Device (SQUID) is also potentially useful for ultrasensitive rotation measurements and as a component in quantum computers.

"In a conventional SQUID, the quantum interference in electron currents can be used to make one of the most sensitive magnetic field detectors," said Changhyun Ryu, a physicist with the Material Physics and Applications Quantum group at Los Alamos National Laboratory. "We use neutral atoms rather than charged electrons. Instead of responding to magnetic fields, the atomtronic version of a SQUID is sensitive to mechanical rotation."

Although small, at only about ten millionths of a meter across, the atomtronic SQUID is thousands of times larger than the molecules and atoms that are typically governed by the laws of quantum mechanics. The relatively large scale of the device lets it test theories of macroscopic realism, which could help explain how the world we are familiar with is compatible with the quantum weirdness that rules the universe on very small scales. On a more pragmatic level, atomtronic SQUIDs could offer highly sensitive rotation sensors or perform calculations as part of quantum computers.

The researchers created the device by trapping cold atoms in a sheet of laser light. A second laser intersecting the sheet "painted" patterns that guided the atoms into two semicircles separated by small gaps known as Josephson Junctions.

When the SQUID is rotated and the Josephson Junctions are moved toward each other, the populations of atoms in the semicircles change as a result of quantum mechanical interference of currents through Josephson Junctions. By counting the atoms in each section of the semicircle, the researchers can very precisely determine the rate the system is rotating.

As the first prototype atomtronic SQUID, the device has a long way to go before it can lead to new guidance systems or insights into the connection between the quantum and classical worlds. The researchers expect that scaling the device up to produce larger diameter atomtronic SQUIDs could open the door to practical applications and new quantum mechanical insights.
"Should you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing vessels is likely to be a more productive than energy devoted to patching leaks."
Warren Buffett.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.

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