Tuesday, 28 July 2020

Commodities – The Mid 1970s Again?


Baltic Dry Index. 1293 -24  Brent Crude 43.44
Spot Gold 1945 (28/7/1978 gold reaches 200 for the first time.)

Coronavirus Cases 28/7/20 World 16,578,138
Deaths 655,947

28 July 1914. World War One starts.  Austria-Hungary decides against mediation and declares war on Serbia, the first declaration of war in WWI.

Fifteen trillion of new fiat money created out of thin air here, a few trillion more of new fiat money created out of thin air there, and pretty soon we’re talking gold trading with a 2,000 per troy ounce handle.

Unsurprisingly, all this new fiat money creation is unsettling people and nations of wealth.  They fear a Zimbabwe or Venezuela like eventual outcome. Better hide some of that fiat money wealth away in tangible assets now.

Wealthy individuals are spoiled for choice of tangible assets, gold, land, commodities, old masters, buildings, diamonds, private islands. But precious metals are the easiest to acquire, change location, and eventually sell.

That ability to easily change precious metals location, is a big advantage at a time when the US Democratic Party, which is on course to win the November elections, is talking about bringing in “wealth” taxes. Try moving that 100 million, billionaire’s row penthouse in Manhattan.

For wealthy nation states worried about all this new fiat currency creation out of thin air, swapping some of the new fiat currency into tangible assets is much more limited.  For them, gold, strategic minerals and metals, and strategic food stocks, are about the only meaningful large options.

While no commodity ever goes straight up without some profit taking sell-offs, such sell-offs usually become new buying opportunities for those who missed out at the start. 

Thanks to all that newly created fiat money created out of thin air, our commodity markets are on the cusp of a mid-1970s like boom.

Gold hits record, gets more precious as dollar loses value

July 28, 2020 / 2:15 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Gold hurtled to record peaks on Tuesday before the sheer scale of its gains drew a burst of profit taking, which lifted the dollar from two-year lows and curbed early equity gains.

The precious metal had stormed almost $40 higher at one point to reach $1,980 an ounce, only for a wave of selling to slap it back to $1,947 in wild trade. 

Gold is still up over $130 in little more than a week as investors wager the Federal Reserve will reaffirm its super-easy policies at a policy meeting this week, and perhaps signal a tolerance for higher inflation in the long run.

“Fed officials have made clear that they will be making their forward guidance more dovish and outcome-based soon,” wrote analysts at TD Securities.

“The chairman is likely to continue the process of prepping markets for changes when he speaks at his press conference.”

One shift could be to average inflation targeting, which would see the Fed aim to push inflation above its 2% target to make up for years of under-shooting.

The pullback in gold took some steam out of stocks but MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was still up 0.8%.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 firmed 0.3% even as the yen held recent gains, while Chinese blue chips put on 0.6% .CSI300.

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 edged up 0.1%, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures added 0.4% and FTSE futures 0.4%.

The Dow .DJI had ended Monday up 0.43%, while the S&P 500 .SPX gained 0.74% and the Nasdaq .IXIC 1.67%.

That rise was again led by technology stocks as investors wagered on upbeat earnings reports due this week. Analysts also noted the falling dollar was a positive given that more than 40% of S&P 500 earnings come from abroad.
More

Republicans unveil coronavirus plan, slash emergency unemployment benefit

July 27, 2020 / 11:18 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senate Republicans on Monday proposed a $1 trillion coronavirus aid package hammered out with the White House, paving the way for talks with Democrats on how to help Americans as expanded unemployment benefits for millions of workers expire this week.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell called the proposal a “tailored and targeted” plan focused on getting children back to school and employees back to work and protecting corporations from lawsuits, while slashing the expiring supplemental unemployment benefits of $600 a week by two-thirds. 

The plan sparked immediate opposition from both Democrats and Republicans. Democrats decried it as too limited compared to their $3 trillion proposal that passed the House of Representatives in May, while some Republicans called it too expensive.

McConnell said the package would include direct $1,200 payments to Americans, as well as incentives for the manufacture of personal protective equipment in the United States, rather than China.

It also includes $190 billion for loans to help small businesses, and $100 billion for loans to businesses that operate seasonally or in low-income areas.

Republicans want to reduce the expanded unemployment benefit from the current $600 per week, which is in addition to state unemployment payments and expires on Friday, to $200 in addition to state unemployment.

After two months, states would implement a new formula that replaces about 70% of lost wages.
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In other global economy news, don’t expect a “V” shaped recovery, just years more newly created fiat money, as we try to get back to 2019.

Coronavirus: UK economy 'could take four years to recover'

27 July, 2020.
The UK economy could take until 2024 to return to the size it was before the coronavirus lockdown, according to analysis from the EY Item Club.

The forecasters, who use a similar economic model to the Treasury, suggest unemployment will rise to 9% from 3.9%.

They also estimate the economy will shrink by 11.5% this year, worse than the 8% they predicted only a month ago.

Consumers have been more cautious than expected, they said, while low business investment will dampen growth.

However, the forecasters say it is early days and useful data has only recently been made available.

"Unsurprisingly, without hard data, a wide range of views on the performance and outlook for the UK economy emerged," said Mark Gregory, UK chief economist at EY.

Last week, the Bank of England's chief economist Andy Haldane told MPs the UK economy had "clawed back" about half the fall in output it saw during the peak of the coronavirus lockdown in March and April.

There had been a V-shaped "bounceback", he said, referring to the shape that indicates a rapid economic recovery.

Last month, Mr Haldane said the economy was "on track for a quick recovery".

However, other economists have expressed doubts about the potential for such a swift recovery in activity.

"Even though lockdown restrictions are easing, consumer caution has been much more pronounced than expected," said Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club.

"We believe that consumer confidence is one of three key factors likely to weigh on the UK economy over the rest of the year, alongside the impact of rising unemployment and low levels of business investment.

"The UK economy may be past its low point but it is looking increasingly likely that the climb back is going to be a lot longer than expected."
More
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53552494

World Trade Continues To Slide As Recovery Sputters 

Mon, 07/27/2020 - 04:15
New data published by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis on Friday reveals world trade fell 1.1% in May after a 12.2% plunge in April. 

Highlights from the CPB report indicate world trade continues to decelerate:

·         World trade volume decreased 1.1% month-on-month (growth was -12.2% in April, initial estimate - 12.1%).
·         World trade momentum was -11.6% (non-annualised; -6.9% in April, initial estimate -7.2%).
·         World industrial production increased by 0.8% month-on-month (having decreased 8.5% in April, initial estimate -8.1%).
·         World industrial production momentum was -7.1% (non-annualised; -5.8% in April, initial estimate - 5.6%).

To visualize the collapse in world trade, CPB published several charts showing world merchandise trade volume to industrial production volume, all suggesting the global recovery is far from a "V." 

----"Although the full impact of the pandemic is not yet reflected fully in trade statistics, it is expected to be very substantial", said WTO director-general Roberto Azevedo, who presented the trade report to its 164 member states on Friday. 

WTO said last month that 2Q20 world trade YoY could plunge upwards of 18%. Along with slumping world trade, we noted earlier this week (July 21) that the global recovery is running on fumes.

To get a better sense of what collapsing world trade means for global stocks. Here is world trade volume versus MSCI World. 
More
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world-trade-continues-slide-recovery-sputters

In central banking as in diplomacy, style, conservative tailoring, and an easy association with the affluent count greatly and results far much less.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Covid-19 Corner                       

This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Three-quarters of adults with COVID-19 have heart damage after recovery

July 27, 2020 / 11:37 AM
July 27 (UPI) -- Seventy-eight percent of people diagnosed with COVID-19 showed evidence of heart damage caused by the disease weeks after they have recovered, according to a study published Monday by JAMA Cardiology.

Of 100 participants in the study, 78 had evidence of heart damage on magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI, according to the researchers. 

None of the 100 patients included in the analysis had experienced heart symptoms related to the new coronavirus and "were mostly healthy ... prior to their illness," the researchers said.

"The patients and ourselves were both surprised by the intensity and prevalence of these findings, and that they were still very pronounced even though the original illness had been by then already a few weeks away," study co-author Dr. Valentina Puntmann told UPI.

"We found evidence of ongoing inflammation within the heart muscle, as well as of the heart's lining in a considerable majority of patients," said Puntmann, a consultant physician, cardiologist and clinical pharmacologist at University Hospital Frankfurt in Germany.

The researchers said the MRI findings were consistent with two potentially serious heart conditions: myocarditis and pericarditis, according to the researchers.

Myocarditis is inflammation of the heart muscle, and it can reduce the heart's ability to pump, potentially causing irregular heartbeats, Puntmann said.
More

Travel bans cannot be indefinite, countries must fight COVID-19 at home: WHO

27 Jul 2020 06:52PM (Updated: )
GENEVA: Bans on international travel cannot stay in place indefinitely, and countries are going to have to do more to reduce the spread of the novel coronavirus within their borders, the World Health Organization said on Monday (Jul 27).

A surge of infections has prompted countries to reimpose some travel restrictions in recent days, with Britain throwing the reopening of Europe's tourism industry into disarray by ordering a quarantine on travellers returning from Spain.

Only with strict adherence to health measures, from wearing masks to avoiding crowds, would the world manage to beat the COVID-19 pandemic, the World Health Organization's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said at a virtual news briefing.

"Where these measures are followed, cases go down. Where they are not, cases go up," he said, praising Canada, China, Germany and South Korea for controlling outbreaks.

WHO emergencies programme head Mike Ryan said it was impossible for countries to keep borders shut for the foreseeable future.
More

Hong Kong bans restaurant dining as it battles new wave of coronavirus

July 27, 2020 / 9:48 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong banned gatherings of more than two people on Monday, closed down restaurant dining and introduced mandatory face masks in public places, including outdoors, as it tries to rein in a new coronavirus outbreak.

The measures, which take effect from Wednesday, are the first time the densely populated city has completely banned dining in restaurants. Since late January, more than 2,700 people have been infected in Hong Kong, 20 of whom have died. 

“The situation is very worrying,” said Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung, adding that the current outbreak is the most severe the city has experienced.

The measures will be in place for seven days, he said.

The ban on dining at restaurants and food stalls threatens to complicate life for the many people in the city who depend on eating out for daily meals as their tiny apartments lack kitchen facilities.

The Chinese-ruled territory, with a population of more than 7 million, in July halted dine-in services from 6 p.m. as concerns grew of a third wave of infections but allowed restaurants and cafes to function through the day as normal.

However, the city has seen a spike in locally transmitted coronavirus cases over the past three weeks, with Monday the sixth consecutive day of triple-digit infections.

Authorities reported 145 cases on Monday, a new daily record, of which 142 were locally transmitted cases.
More

Australia posts daily virus record, more deaths expected

July 27, 2020 / 1:12 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australia’s Victoria state on Monday reported the country’s highest daily increase in coronavirus infections, prompting the authorities to warn a six-week lockdown may last longer if people continue to go to work while feeling unwell.

The second-most populous state reported 532 new cases of the virus which causes COVID-19, taking the national total to 549, the most new cases in a day since the pandemic arrived. 

Victoria currently has more than 4,500 active cases after weeks of triple digits daily rises.

It reported six more deaths, taking the state toll to 77, almost half the total national death toll. Five of the deaths were in aged care facilities, which have been hit hardest in the state.

Australia has avoided the high COVID-19 casualty rates of other countries, but a wave of community transmission in Victoria has prompted a lockdown in Melbourne, the only Australian city to make it mandatory to wear a facemask in public.

“If you’ve got a sniffle, a scratchy throat, a headache, fever, then you can’t go to work,” said Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews in a televised news conference.

“This is what is driving these numbers up, and the lockdown will not end until people stop going to work with symptoms and instead go and get tested because they have symptoms.”

Melbourne, home to a fifth of Australia’s 25 million population, is halfway though a six-week ban on movement other than for work, buying food, giving or receiving healthcare, or daily exercise. 
Andrews added that he may announce additional measures later this week.
More

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live


Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Graphene can act as surfactant

Date: July 22, 2020

Source: Cranfield University

Summary: New research into graphene flakes has discovered that the material can act as a surfactant, for the first time demonstrating how it can be a versatile 2D stabilizer ideal for many industrial applications from oil extraction to paper processing.

Pristine graphene is completely water repellent, but the researchers found that at a particular size (below 1-micron lateral size), amphiphilic behaviour is possible. This graphene flake attracts water at its edges but repels it on its surface, making it a new generation of surfactant that can stabilise oil and water mixtures.

Krzysztof Koziol, Professor of Composites Engineering and Head of the Enhanced Composites and Structures Centre at Cranfield University said, "This new finding, and clear experimental demonstration of surfactant behaviour of graphene, has exciting possibilities for many industrial applications. We produced pristine graphene flakes, without application of any surface treatment, at a specific size which can stabilise water/oil emulsions even under high pressure andhigh temperature . 

Unlike traditional surfactants which degrade and are often corrosive, graphene opens new level of material resistance,can operate at high pressures, combined with high temperatures and even radiation conditions; and we can recycle it. Graphene has the potential to become a truly high-performance surfactant."

The qualities of this graphene flake make it an ideal material to be combined with water and used as a surfactant in environmently friendly extraction of minerals, crude oil and other ores from rock. There is also need for better quality surfactants as plasticisers for fluid concrete, additives in flameroofing and waterproofing as well as lubricants in drilling fluids to improve effectiveness of drilling operations.

The surfactants currently in use are corrosive and degrade under intense heat and pressured environments. Graphene offers a more stable, cost-effective and environmentally friendly way to operate in harsh geological or chemical environments.

Mike Payne, Professor of Computational Physics at Cambridge University, who was one of the co-researchers for this project, said: "There is an enormous volume of scientific research on graphene. In some ways this is to be applauded but it can also lead to conflicting results in the literature -- as in the present example of whether graphene flakes are hydrophobic or amphiphilic. Our work combines exciting experiments on well characterised material with a range of theoretical simulations, including quantum mechanical calculations. Together they provide a detailed understanding of the properties of the graphene flakes and a definitive answer to this question."

It is only by not paying one's bills that one can hope to live on in the memory of the commercial classes.

Oscar Wilde.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.

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