Saturday, 4 July 2020

Special Update 04/07/2020 July 4th - Nixon Returns? Covid Surges.


Baltic Dry Index. 1894 +71  Brent Crude 42.80
Spot Gold 1772

Covid-19 cases 27/06/20 World 9,952,829
Deaths 497,963

Covid-19 cases 04/07/20 World 11,205,038
Deaths 529,480

Signed by representatives from 13 states on 4th July 1776 the declaration was a statement adopted by the Second Congressional Congress and the first step toward forming an independence United States.

The declaration was drafted by
Thomas Jefferson and edited by the Committee of Five headed by John Adams before being further refined by Congress. It was first printed and disseminated by John Dunlap in Philadelphia and then sent across America. A copy reached the Commander-in-Chief of the Continental Army George Washington who read it to his troops on the 9th July.

The engrossed version of the Declaration with its signatures was requested by Congress in 1777 and it is this copy that resides on display in the National Archives. By 1820 the document was already showing some wear so an engraving was made and it is this engraved image which is now the mostly widely known image and that pictured here.

Looking more and more to be a one term president, President Trump is using the Independence Day celebrations to try to re-energise his campaign.

From far away London, he seems to be adopting President Nixon’s law and order game plan from the 60s and 70s. But does it still work in 2020? Well maybe, it all depends on how chaotic the violent anarchy gets. The silent majority doesn’t vote for riots.

Given the coronavirus crisis, and, stock markets excepted, the collapsed state of the economy, in a normal year the presidential challenger ought to be heading for a landslide.

But the Democrats, in their wisdom, have put up the oldest presidential candidate in 244 years, one with a deeply tainted baggage train too boot. An interesting, mostly ugly summer election campaign lies ahead.

I have my doubts that the campaigns will change many voters. Most will just “hold their noses” and vote for their already chosen candidate.

Still given what’s likely to become a vey flawed “dirty tricks” campaign already underway, “the Russians paying a bounty to the Taliban for killing US troops,” I think I will place a small bet on the incumbent surprising everyone again.

Trump blasts 'left wing cultural revolution' at Mount Rushmore

July 3, 2020 / 12:13 PM
MOUNT RUSHMORE NATIONAL MEMORIAL, S.D. (Reuters) - President Donald Trump on Friday railed against “angry mobs” that tried to tear down statues of Confederate leaders and other historical figures, warning thousands of supporters at Mount Rushmore that protestors were trying to erase U.S. history.

Speaking underneath a famed landmark that depicts four U.S. presidents, Trump warned that the demonstrations over racial inequality in American society threatened the foundations of the U.S. political system.

“Make no mistake, this left wing cultural revolution is designed to overthrow the American revolution,” Trump said.

“Our children are taught in school to hate their own country,” he added.

The event drew an estimated 7,500 people, packed tightly into an amphitheater beneath the famed landmark that depicts the images of U.S. presidents George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln. Masks were offered to attendees but many did not wear them.

Trump has held three public events that have drawn thousands of supporters over the past three weeks, despite warnings from public-health officials who have urged Americans to avoid large gatherings as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the country. Seven states posted a record number of new COVID-19 cases on Friday.

---- South Dakota, a solidly Republican state, has not been hit as hard as other states by COVID-19, but cases in Pennington County, where Mount Rushmore is located, have more than doubled over the past month.
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American History, Alive in Stone...

Majestic figures of George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln, surrounded by the beauty of the Black Hills of South Dakota, tell the story of the birth, growth, development and preservation of this country. From the history of the first inhabitants to the diversity of America today, Mount Rushmore brings visitors face to face with the rich heritage we all share. Read More
https://www.nps.gov/moru/index.htm

In other news, this summer weekend:

Seven U.S. states post record COVID cases, curfew ordered in Miami

July 3, 2020 / 5:55 PM
(Reuters) - Alabama and six other U.S. states reported record increases in coronavirus cases on Friday as Florida’s most populous county imposed a curfew ahead of the Independence Day weekend and Arkansas joined a push toward mandating mask-wearing in public.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alaska, Missouri, Idaho and Alabama all registered new daily highs in cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the novel coronavirus. Texas hit a new peak for hospitalizations, with one doctor calling for a “complete lockdown” in the state to get the virus under control.

The daily U.S. tally of cases stood at 53,483 late on Friday, below the previous day’s record 55,405.

The recent surge, most pronounced in southern and western states, has alarmed public health officials, who urged caution ahead of a July 4th holiday weekend to celebrate the Declaration of Independence of the United States in 1776.

North Carolina, for one, reported 951 hospitalizations and 2,099 cases, both record highs.
Bill Saffo, mayor of Wilmington, North Carolina, said many infections had been traced to large gatherings and predicted a further jump after the holiday weekend as people flouted guidelines on social distancing and masks.

“We know that the spread is going to happen. We know probably in about two weeks we’ll see a spike from the July 4th weekend,” Saffo told CNN.

Despite the jump in infections, the average daily death toll in the United States has gradually declined in recent weeks, a reflection of the growing proportion of positive tests among younger, healthier people who are less prone to severe outcomes.
More

Second wave of virus closures wallops California restaurants

MICHAEL R. BLOOD
July 3, 2020
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Homayoun Dariyani was training servers and cooks for his soon-to-open gourmet hamburger grill in March when California abruptly shut down dine-in restaurants to slow the spread of the coronavirus.

After a three-month delay, Dariyani held the grand opening for Slater’s 50/50 on June 18 after the state allowed restaurants to operate with limited capacity. It would be a brief reprieve.

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Wednesday shuttered indoor dining for at least three weeks across much of the nation's most populated state, warning that infections were rapidly climbing.

The sudden reversal, less than two weeks after Dariyani opened the doors of his restaurant in the Los Angeles suburb of Santa Clarita, left him stunned and in a financial fix. He had stockpiled fresh beef and produce for a busy Fourth of July weekend, which now could turn into a five-figure loss.

He’s struggling — again — to keep 60 workers on the payroll with nearly 300 seats inside his restaurant empty. He has a takeout window and room for 80 on his patios, where customers are allowed to eat because the threat of virus transmission is much lower outdoors.

The latest order “is a huge step back for all the restaurants,” said Dariyani, who also runs a catering business. “It’s not fair to anybody.”

The coronavirus crisis has left millions unemployed, but few businesses have been hit as hard as California's estimated 90,000 restaurants. Industry experts predict that as many as one-third of them will never reopen, while others are trying to navigate a maze of new sanitation rules and physical-distancing guidelines that have gutted seating charts and boosted in-house costs.

“It’s chaos,” said Jot Condi, who heads the California Restaurant Association.
More

Global Markets: COVID recovery vs COVID reality

Marc Jones  July 3, 2020 / 1:04 AM / Updated 14 hours ago
LONDON (Reuters) - World shares inched towards a four-month high on Friday and industrial bellwether metal copper was set for its longest weekly winning streak in nearly three years, as recovering global data kept nagging coronavirus nerves at bay.

The market rally fuelled by record U.S. jobs numbers had largely blown itself [out] amid a spike in U.S. COVID cases, though the fastest expansion in China’s services sector in over a decade and more stimulus ensured optimism remained.

Chinese shares had charged to their highest level in five years, helping the pan-Asian indexes to 4-month peaks, so the sight of European markets stalling early on took some traders by surprise.
Currency and commodity markets also had a subdued feel after an otherwise strong week for confidence-sensitive stalwarts such oil, copper, sterling and the Australian dollar, which all struggled on Friday.

“I think infection rates and fears of localised lockdowns have doused some of the enthusiasm,” said Societe Generale strategist Kit Jukes.

“We have three elements now; vaccine hopes, decent data in most places but also the return of infection rates which can make you nervous.”

Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose slightly in early London trading. It was up less than 0.1% at 97.306 and still firmly on track for its biggest weekly fall since the first week of June.

----U.S. nonfarm payrolls surged by 4.8 million jobs in June, above the average forecast of 3 million jobs in June, thanks to rises in the hard-hit hospitality sectors.

But economists noted there were caveats to the upbeat headline figures.

The number of permanent job losers continued to rise, increasing by 588,000 to 2.9 million in June while the unemployment rate remains a chunky 7.6 percentage points above its February level. A Deutsche Bank analysis put the U.S. unemployment rate behind all its developed market peers barring Canada.

The recovery also faces more headwinds as a surge of new coronavirus infections prompts U.S. states to delay and in some cases reverse plans to let stores reopen and activities resume.

More than three dozen U.S. states saw increases in COVID-19 cases, with cases in Florida spiking above 10,000.
More
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/global-markets-covid-recovery-vs-covid-reality-idUSKBN244003

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live


Finally, just how safe is modern “money?”  Turns out, not very safe at all. Many more scandals to come, I suspect. Where’s next?

It's only when the tide goes out that you discover who's been swimming naked.

Warren Buffett.

Your Wirecard E-Cash Was Safe Until It Wasn’t

The aftershocks of the German fintech firm's collapse reach the U.K., with chilling results.
By Lionel Laurent
July 3, 2020, 7:17 AM GMT+1

The collapse of fintech darling Wirecard AG into insolvency proceedings is a total embarrassment for Germany, whose regulatory apparatus and corporate-governance system failed to properly scrutinize the company’s accounting practices even as red flags kept being waved.

But it’s also a serious problem for the U.K., where a burgeoning fintech industry grew up around Wirecard. The German company’s British subsidiary, Wirecard Card Solutions, has an “e-money” license, which allows it to handle digital cash without fully becoming a deposit-taking bank. As a member of Mastercard and Visa's payment networks, the unit is able to issue cards under those brands.

Fintech startups unwilling or unable to go through the regulatory hoops to do it all themselves flocked to Wirecard over the years as a cheap and convenient way to offer digital wallets, money transfers and widely-accepted payment cards.

Last Friday, the U.K. Financial Conduct Authority slapped a temporary halt on Wirecard Card Solutions. Those handy cards suddenly stopped working for customers at firms with names like Curve, Pockit and ANNA (whose acronym stands for Absolutely No Nonsense Admin). The freeze was lifted late on Monday, marking a pretty long blackout for 21st-century finance. In racing to protect the money of millions of people and ensure the U.K. is isolated from woes in Germany, 
 British regulators have exposed a lack of trust in the system that consumers won’t soon forget.

These weren’t full-blown bank accounts, and in many cases users had fallback options, so disruption was obviously far less severe than in financial crises such as the Northern Rock or Lehman Brothers failures. Some companies, like Curve, were even able to set up alternatives to Wirecard over the weekend, but they were exceptions. Wirecard Card Solutions said that after “intensive work” with the regulator the FCA was satisfied that its client money is safe.

Still, it was a far cry from the marketing campaigns promoting these cards as an easy way to shop, save or get special deals from merchants. The reality of catering to the “unbanked” meant that people on government benefits couldn’t access their money. Hip startup founders in t-shirts found themselves trying to explain the inner workings of payments to enraged customers who wondered why they hadn’t stuck with old brick-and-mortar banks.

This is an expensive lesson in cheap banking: Nothing is risk-free and the convenience of e-money also brings fewer protections than regulated bank deposits (such as government-guaranteed schemes).

----Today, though, regulators don’t seem so confident in high-flying fintechs’ commitment to the rules. The FCA’s freeze was apparently intended to make sure customer money was where it was supposed to be. After all, Wirecard AG had just admitted that it couldn’t locate 1.9 billion euros ($2.1 billion) of cash. There was perhaps an additional fear of U.K. customer funds becoming mixed up in insolvency proceedings.

But the freeze also symbolizes a breakdown of faith in German regulators, who have taken over and ring-fenced Wirecard’s banking operations. In imposing the freeze, the FCA’s list of demands to Wirecard’s U.K. subsidiary included safeguarding customer funds at a bank authorized in Britain, something industry folks say is a new development in what is supposed to be a harmonized European system.
More
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-07-03/u-k-fintech-your-wirecard-e-cash-was-safe-until-it-wasn-t?srnd=premium-europe

“Rule No. 1: Never lose money. Rule No. 2: Never forget rule No.1”

 Warren Buffett


This weekend’s musical diversion.  The almost completely unknown Bohemian composer Frantisek Jiranek who is believed to have studied under Vivaldi.

F. JIRÁNEK: Flute Concerto in in D major Jk 11, Collegium Marianum

František Jiránek

Jiránek was born on 24 July 1698 in Lomnice nad Popelkou (Northern Bohemia, present-day Czech Republic). His parents were servants of the Counts of Morzin; František also started to work for them as a musician. Count Václav Morzin sent[1] him to Venice in 1724 to improve his musical abilities. His teacher was probably Antonio Vivaldi himself.[1] Count Václav Morzin was a very important supporter of Vivaldi (Vivaldi dedicated to him his famous Four Seasons).
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4 July 1838. Huskar Colliery Mining Disaster in Silkstone England: mining pit floods drown 26 children, leads to 1842 'Mines and Collieries Act' bans women and children working underground.

In 1838 Huskar was connected to Moorend Colliery, and used for ventilation. It had a vertical shaft to the surface and a drift shaft (known as a "dayhole") leading to Nabs Wood. On 4 July 1838 heavy rainfall struck the area, disabling the winding engine on the vertical shaft. The workers stranded at the pit bottom were instructed to remain there until they were able to be brought up to the surface, but a number of children decided to try and escape via the dayhole to Nabs Wood. A nearby stream had burst its banks in the rain and a torrent of water entered the shaft, drowning 26 children aged 7 to 17. Some were able to escape via a passage that lead to Moorend and alert colliers on the surface.
More

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June


DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down. 

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.


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