Baltic Dry Index. 1696 -46 Brent Crude 43.55
Spot Gold 1810
Coronavirus Cases 16/7/20
World 13,647,940
Deaths 584,947
Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative.
Oscar Wilde
We open with China’s scripted economy
recovering in the second quarter, avoiding an official recession. Well if they
say so it must be true, right?
I suspect that neither quarter’s figures are
accurate, or rather as accurate as China’s coronavirus figures.
China's economy rebounds in second quarter after steep slump, consumption and investment still weak
July 16, 2020 /
3:45 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s economy
returned to growth in the second-quarter after a deep slump at the start of the
year, but domestic consumption and investment remained weak as the shock from
the coronavirus crisis underscored the need for more policy support to bolster
the recovery.
The gross domestic product (GDP) data, as well as key June indicators,
will be closely scrutinized around the world, especially as many countries
continue to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic even as China has largely
managed to contain the outbreak and has begun to restart its economic engines.
GDP rose 3.2% in the second-quarter from a year earlier, the National
Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, faster than the 2.5% forecast by
analysts in a Reuters poll, as lockdown measures ended and policymakers ramped
up stimulus to combat the pandemic-led downturn.
The bounce was still the weakest expansion on record, and followed a
steep 6.8% slump in the first quarter, the first such contraction since at
least 1992 when quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) records began.
“While in general it’s fair to say that the numbers beat expectations,
what the numbers also reveal is that we’re seeing that the China consumer
remains behind in terms of the recovery story,” said Rodrigo Catril, a foreign
exchange strategist at NAB in Sydney.
“It’s very much a story of government stimulus-led recovery, which is
very much focused on the industrial side. The consumer remains very cautious.
That cautiousness is something the market is looking at in terms of countries
where the consumer plays a bigger role, so that’s obviously relevant for the
U.S. as well.”
More
Dollar firms as weak China retail sales sound warning
July 16, 2020 /
1:55 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - The dollar found support on Thursday as simmering Sino-U.S.
tensions and weak Chinese consumption data knocked investors’ faith in a fairly
swift global economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis.
China’s 3.2% economic growth last quarter easily beat market
expectations for 2.5%. But an unexpected drop in retail sales - for a fifth
straight month - was an unwelcome harbinger of possible problems ahead for the
rest of the world as more countries relax lockdowns and allow businesses to reopen.
The growth-sensitive Australian dollar slipped under 70 cents after the
data, and the greenback clambered off an overnight one-month low against a
basket of currencies =USD.
---- Surging U.S. virus cases also dampened sentiment and weighed on equity markets as focus shifts to Europe, and the region’s recovery plans, as well as rising global tensions. [MKTS/GLOB]
Britain on Wednesday ordered that equipment from China’s Huawei be
purged from its communications network by 2027, prompting a warning from Beijing,
while China and the U.S. are at loggerheads over issues from trade to
technology.
President Donald Trump has not ruled out additional sanctions on top
Chinese officials over Beijing’s crackdown in Hong Kong, a White House
spokesman said on Tuesday.
The New York Times also reported his administration is considering a
sweeping ban on travel to the United States by Chinese Communist Party members,
citing four unnamed people with knowledge of such discussions.
The cautious drift in markets recoups some of the dollar’s losses this week as investors had cheered promising progress toward a coronavirus vaccine, pulling most of the majors back toward the ranges they have marked for more than a month.
“The broad dollar is at a crossroads,” said OCBC FX strategist Terence Wu. It is under pressure, but its near-term fate, he said, rests with the euro and the outcome of today’s European Central Bank meeting and the weekend’s EU Summit.
The euro EUR= has pulled back from a four-month top hit overnight, but remained supported in Asia at $1.1402.
The ECB is all but certain to keep policy on hold on Thursday, which would keep pressure on political leaders to agree on a recovery plan at a Friday-Saturday conference in Brussels.
More
In European news, while the rump-EU prepares
for yet another expensive summit, Germany is still closing the Wirecard stable
doors, Apple is laughing all the way to its Irish bank, and the EU attorneys are
trying to figure out what went wrong and whether to appeal.
German watchdog under EU scrutiny as it widens Wirecard investigation
July
15, 2020 / 1:06 PM
FRANKFURT
(Reuters) - The European Union’s markets watchdog said on Wednesday that it was
reviewing Germany’s financial reporting set-up in the wake of Wirecard’s
collapse as Germany widened its own investigation into the failed company.
The assessment by the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA)
will focus on Germany’s financial supervisor BaFin and the accounting watchdog
- the privately-owned Financial Reporting Enforcement Panel (FREP).
BaFin and FREP have come under scrutiny for their oversight of Wirecard,
which filed for insolvency last month owing creditors 4 billion euros ($4.58
billion) after disclosing a 1.9 billion euro hole in its accounts that its
auditor EY said was the result of a sophisticated global fraud.
“High quality financial reporting is core to investor trust in capital
markets and Wirecard’s collapse has undermined this trust,” ESMA said.
“Therefore, it is necessary to assess these events to help in restoring
investor confidence,” it added.
ESMA said that it would complete the review by Oct. 30.
FREP, asked to comment on ESMA’s investigation, noted that a 2017 review
of its work by ESMA found “highly positive results”.
More
Blow for EU as Apple wins fight against $15 billion tax order
July 15, 2020 /
10:19 AM
LUXEMBOURG/DUBLIN
(Reuters) - Apple scored a major win on Wednesday as Europe’s second-highest
court rejected an EU order for the iPhone maker to pay 13 billion euros ($15
billion) in Irish back taxes, dealing a blow to the bloc’s attempts to crack
down on sweetheart tax deals.
In its order four years ago, the European Commission said Apple
benefited from illegal state aid via two Irish tax rulings that artificially
reduced its tax burden for over two decades - to as low as 0.005% in 2014.
“The General Court annuls the contested decision because the Commission
did not succeed in showing to the requisite legal standard that there was an
advantage for the purposes of Article 107(1) TFEU1,” judges said, referring to
EU competition rules.
They said the EU executive was wrong to say Apple’s two Irish
subsidiaries - Apple Sales International (ASI) and Apple Operations Europe
(AOE) - had been granted a selective economic advantage and, by extension,
state aid.
Apple welcomed the ruling, saying the case was not about how much tax it
pays, but where it is required to pay it.
Ireland - which had appealed against the Commission’s decision alongside
Apple - said it had always been clear it had not given special treatment to the
U.S. company.
More
No time frame for any possible Apple appeal, EU Commission says
July 15, 2020 /
1:19 PM
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - The European Commission could not say on Wednesday
how long it might take to decide whether or not to appeal an earlier court tax
ruling on iPhone maker Apple, a spokeswoman for the EU executive told
reporters.
“Regarding the time that is necessary to decide on the next steps ... we
cannot say more about how long it will take us to study the implications of
this ruling so quickly after it was issued,” the Commission spokeswoman told a
regular briefing.
In US news, the bankruptcies are just starting
says the corporate bankruptcy King. Who am I to disagree, just don’t let on the
gambling mob now running riot in the stock casinos.
Professor Whose Formula Predicts Bankruptcies Has a Big Warning
----The New York University professor who developed one of the best-known formulas for predicting corporate bankruptcies has a warning for U.S. credit investors: this year’s spate of “mega” insolvencies is just getting started.
More than 30 American companies with
liabilities exceeding $1 billion have already filed for Chapter 11 since the
start of January, and that number is likely to top 60 by year-end after
companies piled on debt during the pandemic, according to Edward Altman,
creator of the Z-score and professor emeritus at NYU’s Stern School of Business.
Global firms have sold a record $2.1 trillion of bonds this year, with nearly
half coming from U.S. issuers, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Companies around the world have sold a record amount of
bonds this year
Source: Bloomberg
This chart shows bonds sold annually from
Jan. 1 to July 15
---- While the stimulus-fueled rally in credit markets
since March has helped borrowers stay afloat during the coronavirus crisis,
Altman and others have warned that many companies are just delaying an
inevitable reckoning. Fitch Ratings estimates that worldwide corporate bond
defaults this year could exceed levels reached during the global recession in
2009.
“There was a huge buildup in corporate debt by the end of
2019 and I thought the market would gain some much needed de-leveraging with
the Covid-19 crisis,” said Altman, who is also director of credit and debt
market research at the NYU Salomon Center. “Now, seems like companies again are
exploiting what seems to be a crazy rebound.”
More
California’s Top Oil Driller Files for Bankruptcy Protection
By Steven Church, David Wethe, and Christine Buurma
July 16, 2020, 2:05 AM GMT+1 Updated on July 16, 2020, 2:55 AM GMT+1
·
·
Bankruptcy comes as low prices weigh on oil
industry
Finally, nothing good lies ahead this way. A
weaponised dollar incentivises everyone to seek ways around relying on the
weaponised US dollar. Keep faith with gold.
Rabobank: "We Now Have A US Dollar Weapon Countdown Underway"
by Tyler Durden Wed, 07/15/2020 - 09:30
Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank
Yesterday US President Trump officially removed Hong Kong’s US special
status, with few extra details that we didn’t already know other than that HK
passports are no longer any more welcome than Chinese ones in the US, and that
Fulbright scholarships are ended. Markets have kept shrugging that news off, as
have HK bankers: “Mo wentai” has been the mantra (“No Problem”). They
weren’t rattled by the imposition of the new national security law; they
weren’t rattled yesterday by Beijing stating pro-democratic/localist forces in
Hong Kong could be breaking that law in trying to win a majority in September’s
election; yet, according to Bloomberg, now that Beijing has just imposed its
own taxation on its overseas citizens, “Bankers Shocked by 45% China Tax
Rate Mull Leaving Hong Kong”. This rather makes the point about how it’s
hits to people’s pockets that really moves the Cold War dial nowadays, not
grandiloquent statements like “Ich bin ein Berliner”.
On that front, Trump also signed the Hong Kong Autonomy Act. Simply,
this law gives Treasury up to 90 days to compile a list of those who are
responsible for undermining HK autonomy; then up to 60 days to verify; and then
sanctions must be imposed on them – something the US is already doing over
Xinjiang. Then, a year after that date, any non-US banks with “significant
transactions” with those individuals or institutions must see five of 10
possible sanctions imposed, which includes banning executives from entering the
US, for example; and a further year later this *must* be expanded to all 10 – including
inability to access the USD. In short, as has been pointed out here several
times of late, we now have a US Dollar Weapon countdown underway, just
as we do with Hard Brexit. It might be some way off at best, but it’s clear
where it ends up.
Talking of where things end up, if pro-democracy Hong Kongers leave for
the UK and the US, and mainland talent goes back to cheaper China, who is going
to be left to "run the shop? Meanwhile, the New York Times has decided
it is going to move part of its operations from Hong Kong to Seoul.
More
When I was young I thought that money was the most important
thing in life; now that I
am old I know that it is.
Oscar Wilde.
Covid-19 Corner
This
section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
China says its first case was
on December 4th, 2019. Officially we reached 1 million cases on
April 1-2, 2020, roughly 120 days. Of course, the numbers aren’t accurate but
are indicative of what’s happening.
It took 14 days to get to 2
million cases globally. To get from 10
million to 11 million global cases took just 6 days. To get from 12 million
cases to 13 million cases took just 4 days.
We are far from beating Sars-Cov-2, and its disease Covid-19.
Now comes news that even if we
get to an effective, widely available, cheap to produce and distribute vaccine,
any immunity protection might last only a few weeks, at best. No herd immunity,
and multiple monthly shots?
It took about 103 days to jump
from 1 million cases to 13 million cases. What will the global cases number be
in another 103 days? 169 million? 100
million? 69 million? And then comes the usual winter flu season’s complications.
The global economic drag looks
like extending well into 2021.
Swiftly waning COVID-19 immunity poses vaccination challenge
July 14, 2020 /
4:33 PM
LONDON
(Reuters) - Emerging evidence that the body’s immune defence against COVID-19
may be short-lived makes it even harder for vaccine developers to come up with
shots fully able to protect people in future waves of infection, scientists
said on Tuesday.
Preliminary studies in China, Germany, Britain and elsewhere have found
that patients infected with the novel coronavirus make protective antibodies as
part of their immune system’s defences, but these appear to last only a few
months.
“Most people make them (antibodies), but often they can wane rather
rapidly, suggesting there could be little immunity,” said Daniel Altmann, a
professor of immunology at Imperial College London.
That raises big problems for developers of potential COVID-19 vaccines,
experts say - and for public health authorities seeking to deploy them to
protect populations from future waves of the pandemic.
“It does mean that the over-reliance on a vaccine (to control the
pandemic) is not wise,” said Stephen Griffin, a Leeds University associate
professor of medicine.
To be truly effective, COVID-19 vaccines “will either need to generate
stronger and longer lasting protection ... or they may need to be given
regularly”, he said.
“And those things are not trivial.”
More
The Latest: Tokyo governor warns infections rising quickly
TOKYO — Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike says the spread
of infections in the Japanese capital has escalated to levels tantamount to
“issuing an alarm,” and requested residents and business owners to step up
preventive measures.
Koike specifically urged restaurants, shops and
nightclub operators to fulfill safety measures and urged customers to stay away
from places that don’t comply with guidelines.
Koike also asked Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s
government to revise the law to authorize local governors to penalize business owners
who violate requested safety measures.
She appealed to residents to avoid
non-essential out-of-town trips, and to the government to “think carefully” if
it’s an appropriate timing to push Abe’s unpopular tourism campaign.
Experts on the Tokyo task force said infections
are no longer limited to younger generations linked to nightlife districts.
The number of serious cases is not rising
rapidly but hospital beds are quickly filling up and more are needed. Tokyo has
had 8,189 confirmed cases and 325 deaths.
U.S. sets new daily record for COVID-19 cases -- 67,400
July 15, 2020 /
11:43 AM
July 15 (UPI) -- The United States has set a new single-day record for fresh COVID-19 cases as
surges in several states continue to strain healthcare providers.There were 67,417 new U.S. cases reported on Tuesday, according to an update Wednesday by researchers at Johns Hopkins University. For the past week, the national daily average has been about 62,000 new cases.
Since the pandemic began, 3.43 million cases and 136,500 deaths have been reported in the United States.
Experts say nearly half of the new cases were recorded in three states -- Florida, Texas and California.
Florida officials said Wednesday they recorded about 10,200 new cases on Tuesday, pushing the state's total past 300,000.
Health officials in Florida have called it the U.S. epicenter of the disease. The state reported a daily record in cases Sunday (15,300) and its highest one-day death toll on Tuesday (132).
Testing nationwide has also risen significantly. The COVID Track Project said the United States performed more than 760,000 tests on Tuesday -- the most to date for a single day.
More
Prepare now for a winter COVID-19 peak, warns Academy of Medical Sciences
Tuesday
14th July 2020
The
UK must prepare now for a potential new wave of coronavirus infections this
winter that could be more serious than the first, says a new report from
the Academy of Medical Sciences released today (Tuesday 14 July).
Combined with the disruption already created in the health service by COVID-19, a backlog of patients needing NHS assessment and treatment, and the possibility of a flu epidemic, this poses a serious risk to health in the UK.
These new pressures are in addition to the challenge winter usually presents to the NHS, when other infectious diseases are more common and conditions such as asthma, heart attack, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and stroke tend to worsen.
The ‘Preparing for a challenging winter 2020/21’ report stresses that ‘intense preparation’ is urgently needed throughout the rest of July and August to reduce the risk of the health service being overwhelmed and to save lives this winter. This includes:
- Minimising transmission of coronavirus in the community, with a public information campaign for all, as well as advice tailored to individuals and communities at high risk.
- Reorganising health and social care staff and facilities to maintain COVID-19 and COVID-19-free zones, and ensure there is adequate PPE, testing and system-wide infection-control measures to minimise transmission in hospitals and care homes.
- Increasing capacity of the test, trace and isolate programme to cope with the overlapping symptoms of COVID-19, flu and other winter infections.
- Establishing a comprehensive, near-real-time, population-wide surveillance system to monitor and manage a winter wave.
- Guarding against the worst effects of flu with a concerted effort to get people at risk, and health and care workers safely vaccinated.
Research suggests that COVID-19 is more likely to spread in winter with people spending more time indoors and the virus able to survive longer in colder, darker winter conditions.
More
COVidIVERmectin: Ivermectin for Treatment of Covid-19 (COVER)
19 June 2020
Study Description
Brief Summary:
Prospective,
multi-centre, randomized, double-blind trial to assess efficacy and safety of
ivermectin for the treatment of initial infection with SARS-CoV2 infection.
Study arms: A) placebo B) ivermectin 600 μg/kg daily for 5 consecutive
days (I_600) + placebo. C) ivermectin 1200 μg/kg daily at empty stomach with
water for 5 consecutive days (I_1200). Patients will be randomized at emergency
room of hospitals as well as at outpatient ambulatory care as well as at home,
according to routine procedures of recruiting centres.
In arm A and B, the number of placebo tablets to be administered will be
calculated by the study dedicated pharmacist considering the number of tablets
that should be taken in case a patient with the same weight is assigned to arm
C.
more
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Safe, fast-charging lithium battery handles 5 times the current
Nick Lavars July
14, 2020
Carefully
introducing new materials into the design of today’s lithium-ion batteries has
the potential to greatly improve their performance, and scientists have just
happened upon a promising possibility in carbon nanotubes. By incorporating
these materials into the electrode of a lithium metal battery, the researchers
have produced a version that is not only safer, but has the potential to charge
up in just a fraction of the time of conventional devices.
----For
its anode, the team used carbon nanotubes to build three-dimensional porous
scaffolds laced with molecules that cause the lithium ions to bind to its
surface. It took some experimentation, but with the right concentration of
these binding molecules, the team found it had produced a battery anode that
avoided the buildup of dendrites on its surface.
“But when we had just the right amount of these binding
molecules, we could ‘unzip’ the carbon nanotube scaffolds at just certain
places, allowing lithium ions to come through and bind on to the entire surface
of the scaffolds rather than accumulate on the outer surface of the anode and
form dendrites,” says study author Juran Noh.Another consequence of this even and safe distribution of the lithium ions was an increased ability of the battery to produce larger currents. So much so, the team reports that the anode can handle currents five times that of conventional batteries. This raises the prospect of a battery that is not only safer and with greater energy density, but one that can be charged in possibly a fraction of the time.
“Building lithium metal anodes that are safe and have long lifetimes has been a scientific challenge for many decades,” Noh said. “The anodes we have developed overcome these hurdles and are an important, initial step toward commercial applications of lithium metal batteries.”
The research was published in the journal Nano Letters.
Earwig wings inspire new folding technology
Ben Coxworth
July 14, 2020
Although
there are many insects with wings that fold down beneath covers when not in
use, the earwig's wings fold the most compactly. Scientists have now copied
that folding mechanism, with an eye towards using it in human technology.
The
team of Japanese and British researchers started by examining folded-down
earwig hind wings, utilizing tomographic imaging – this is an umbrella term for
any type of imaging that involves the use of penetrating waves.
What they discovered was a complex and unique folding pattern, which the
fossil record shows has remained unchanged for at least 280 million years. Not
only does this pattern keep the relatively fragile hind wings safely stowed
beneath the more robust forewings, but it also allows them to remain flexible,
so that the insect isn't impeded as it burrows in the soil or squeezes through
tight spaces.
Initially, the team replicated the pattern using classic drawing
techniques. They have also created a computer program, however, which shows
users how to apply the pattern to flat objects of various shapes, sizes and
materials.
It is now hoped that once developed further, the folding technology could be applied to items such as ultra-compact fans and umbrellas, along with fold-out drone wings, antennae reflectors, or photovoltaic panels on spacecraft.
"Nature has consistently been an everlasting source of inspiration," says Oxford University's Prof. Zhong You, co-author of a paper on the research. "Bioinspired technologies keep offering some of the most efficient and sustainable ways to meet many of the challenges of the future."
Also taking part in the study were scientists from Japan's Kyushu University, Hokkaido University, and the University of Tokyo. The paper was recently published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.
It is better to have a permanent income than to be fascinating.
Oscar Wilde
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up.
SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.
The NASDAQ has remained up.
The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed
to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.
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