Thursday, 2 July 2020

BLS Employment Day. Virus Mania. 1987.


Baltic Dry Index. 1803 + 04 Brent Crude 42.08
Spot Gold 1768

Coronavirus Cases 02/7/20 World 10,724,719
Deaths 519,929

The Representation of the People (Equal Franchise) Act 1928 was an Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom. ... The 1928 Act widened suffrage by giving women electoral equality with men. It gave the vote to all women over 21 years old, regardless of property ownership.

Royal assent: 2 July 1928

Later today, the US employment/unemployment figures from America’s Bureau of Lying Statistics, whose main role in life seems to be to make Beijing’s statistics look good.

After that, America heads off to celebrate their Independence Day, when 244 years ago sensible Americans decided that they could do without the tyrant King George and his GB London government imposing taxes in America without representation.

The weekend is also expected to see President Trump impose more sanctions on China over China’s scandalous treatment of its minority Moslem population. He might also take a shot at China over China breaking the “one China, two systems” Hong Kong treaty.

Not that any of this interfered with latest stock mania underway. Tesla has replaced Toyota as the most valued auto maker in the world. Nasdaq is back in technology bubble territory. No one remembers what happened just 20 years ago,

Below, stocks bubble on like it’s the summer of 1987 again. Does history repeat?

Asian stocks rise on vaccine hopes, eyes on U.S. payrolls

July 2, 2020 / 1:03 AM
SYDNEY/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Asian stocks tracked Wall Street higher on Thursday although sentiment was cautious ahead of U.S. employment data while copper prices jumped to more than six-month highs on a better global outlook and supply fears in top producer Chile.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside of Japan rose 0.9% with all major indexes trading higher on hopes of a vaccine for COVID-19, which has killed more than half a million people globally and shut down the world economy.

Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.4%, China’s blue-chip index added 0.6% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index climbed 1.7%.

E-mini futures for the S&P 500 were flat.

U.S. employment figures due later in the day are expected to show if the world’s largest economy can sustain its fragile recovery as new COVID-19 cases accelerate in several southern states.

Economists polled by Reuters expect private employers to show 2.9 new million new jobs June, which would follow a surprise increase in May. Casting some doubt over that projection, however, was a smaller-than-expected increase in jobs seen in the ADP report on Wednesday.

“A better-than-expected outcome could go some way to settling the near-term debate that the U.S. labor market will heal relatively quickly and justify new highs in U.S. equities,” said Stephen Innes, strategist at AxiCorp.

Wall Street ended Wednesday higher after key economic indicators showed a rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity as it recovers from the pandemic while sharp declines in European factory activity eased.
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Record U.S. job growth expected in June, but masks labor market weakness

July 2, 2020 / 5:19 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy likely created jobs at a record clip in June as more restaurants and bars resumed operations, which would offer further evidence that the COVID-19 recession was probably over, though a surge in cases of the coronavirus threatens the fledgling recovery.

The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Thursday would add to a stream of data, including consumer spending, showing a sharp rebound in activity. 

But the reopening of businesses after being shuttered in mid-March has unleashed a wave of coronavirus infections in large parts of the country, including the populous California, Florida and Texas.

Several states have been scaling back or pausing reopenings since late June and sent some workers home. The impact of these decisions will not show up in the employment data as the government surveyed businesses in the middle of the month.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell this week acknowledged the rebound in activity, saying the economy had “entered an important new phase and (had) done so sooner than expected.” But he cautioned the outlook “is extraordinarily uncertain” and would depend on “our success in containing the virus.”
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Reopenings stall as U.S. records nearly 50,000 cases of COVID-19 in single day

July 1, 2020 / 4:56 PM
(Reuters) - Governors of U.S. states hit hardest by the resurgent coronavirus halted or reversed steps to reopen their economies on Wednesday, led by California, the nation’s most populous state and a new epicenter of the pandemic.

New cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, shot up by nearly 50,000 on Wednesday, according to a Reuters tally, marking the biggest one-day spike since the start of the pandemic. 

“The spread of this virus continues at a rate that is particularly concerning,” California Governor Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, said in ordering the closure of bars, bans on indoor dining and other restrictions in 19 counties, affecting over 70% of the state’s population.

The change in California, which was the first U.S. state to impose sweeping “stay-at-home” restrictions in March, will likely inflict more financial pain on the owners of bars and restaurants who have struggled to survive the pandemic.

The epicenter of the country’s COVID-19 epidemic has moved from the Northeast to California, Arizona and New Mexico in the West along with Texas, Florida and Georgia.

Texas again topped its previous record on Wednesday with 8,076 new cases, while South Carolina reported 24 more coronavirus deaths, a single-day high for the state. Tennessee and Alaska also had record numbers of new cases on Wednesday.
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Germany, U.K. Data Signal a Long Road to Recovery: Virus Update

Bloomberg News
June 30, 2020, 11:49 PM GMT+1 Updated on July 1, 2020, 10:59 AM GMT+1

Europe’s two largest economies reported more evidence of the economic damage wrought by the pandemic. Unemployment in Germany surged in June, accompanied by warnings of a slower-than-expected recovery. In the U.K., house prices posted their first annual decline since 2012, while the nation’s businesses reported a record slump in sales.

Airbus SE embarked on the most extensive restructuring in its history, setting out plans to cut 15,000 civil-aerospace jobs worldwide.

Confirmed coronavirus infections in the U.S. increased by 48,096 to 2.61 million Tuesday, a rise of 1.9% that was above the 7-day average.

----New coronavirus infections in Austria have become “worrying,” with 107 people who testing positive in the last 24 hours, Health Minister Rudolf Anschober told journalists in Vienna. That’s the biggest one-day increase since April 17.

The biggest addition is attributable to a cluster around a Pentecostal evangelical church in Linz, an industrial town two hours west of Vienna, Anschober said. The province of Upper Austria is taking “rigorous” measures, he said, without elaborating.

German Unemployment Rose Sharply in June (4:49 pm. HK)

Another sharp rise in unemployment figures in June took the number of job losses in Germany in the second quarter to 678,000, and the national total to just below 3 million. That’s a threshold not broken since 2011. Yet more redundancies were prevented by generous state wage support, the Federal Labor Agency said Wednesday.

The Ifo institute, which five weeks ago predicted an economic rebound of more than 10% next year, sharply lowered its projections to growth of 6.4%.

U.K. Data Reveal Challenge of Recovery (4.39 p.m. HK)

House prices in the U.K. posted their first annual decline since 2012, dropping 0.1% from a year earlier to an average of 216,403 pounds ($267,000), according to Nationwide Building Society.

Separately, measures of sales, orders and cashflow in the nation’s dominant services sector have plunged by the most in the 31-year history of the British Chambers of Commerce’s quarterly survey. Sentiment in manufacturing industry slid to the weakest level since the financial crisis.

While Bank of England Chief Economist Andy Haldane said Tuesday the recovery may be stronger than predicted, others are less optimistic, with the majority of the 7,706 companies surveyed by the BCC saying they expect turnover to worsen over the next year.
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Rating agency S&P cuts UK forecasts, warns of 'perfect storm'

July 1, 2020 / 11:12 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Rating agency S&P Global cut its UK forecasts for the year again on Wednesday to a 8.1% contraction and warned of a “perfect storm” next year if efforts to strike a post-Brexit EU trade deal fail.

S&P, which delivered its first ever double-notch downgrade to a triple A-rated country when Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016, said it no longer assumed the Brexit transition period will be extended this year. 

Instead it expects London to strike a “core” free trade deal starting 2021, though the risk that negotiations fail remains “elevated”.

“A second, bigger wave of (coronavirus) infections in autumn, then followed by a switch to WTO trade rules in January would be a perfect storm,” S&P said.

BoE's Haskel sees worrying signs of rise in unemployment

July 1, 2020 / 12:37 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Bank of England interest rate-setter Jonathan Haskel said there was a risk that Britain’s economy would be harder hit by the coronavirus crisis than the central bank has predicted and there were worrying signs of rising unemployment.

“I believe the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate but, on balance, risks are to the downside,” Haskel said in remarks he was due to deliver online to the Brighton Chamber of Commerce on Wednesday. 

Haskel was among the eight members of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee who voted last month to expand the BoE’s bond-buying programme to help the economy cope with the shock of the coronavirus lockdown.

In his remarks, Haskel said there had been some signs that economic activity was coming back from its initial slump more quickly than the BoE thought early on in the crisis.

“But we should remember this past quarter is still likely to see by far the largest decline in output since quarterly national accounts began,” he said. “Worryingly the indicators of rising unemployment are already revealing themselves.”

There was a lot of uncertainty about how many of the workers who are temporarily laid off under the government’s furlough scheme would be able to return to their jobs, he said.
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EasyJet to cut aircraft and employees in Berlin

July 1, 2020 / 10:47 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Low cost carrier easyJet (EZJ.L) said on Wednesday it planned to cut the number of aircraft and employees based in Berlin and has launched a consultation.

“Although we will remain Berlin’s largest carrier we have to adjust our schedule to reflect the demand following the pandemic and focus on profitable flying,” Chief Executive Johan Lundgren said in a statement.

There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.

John Kenneth Galbraith

Covid-19 Corner                       

Though hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Beijing approves experimental Covid-19 vaccine for use in Chinese military

By Ben Westcott, CNN
Updated 1354 GMT (2154 HKT) June 30, 2020
Hong Kong (CNN)The Chinese government has approved the use of an experimental Covid-19 vaccine for the country's military -- the latest step in a global race to stop the deadly disease caused by the novel coronavirus.

The vaccine, known as Ad5-nCoV, was jointly-developed by the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology -- part of the Chinese government's Academy of Military Medical Sciences -- and vaccine company CanSino Biologics.

In a statement to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, CanSino announced that China's Central Military Commission had given the vaccine a "military specially-needed drug approval" on June 25. The special permission will last for one year and will only apply to military personnel.

China has repeatedly insisted that its military has remained unaffected by the pandemic, with officials claiming that the People's Liberation Army (PLA), has not recorded a single coronavirus case.

US observers, however, have cast doubt on the claims, noting that the PLA is the among the world's largest standing armies, making it statistically unlikely that its personnel have not been exposed to the virus.

Neither the Chinese government nor CanSino have said how broadly the vaccine will be distributed, which units were be selected or whether it will be mandatory or voluntary for personnel.

CNN has reached out for CanSino for comment on the announcement.

According to a CanSino statement, clinical trials of the new vaccine have shown a "good safety profile" with initial results indicating that Ad5-nCoV had potential to prevent diseases caused by SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus strain that causes Covid-19.

CanSino had previously announced in May that the Canadian government was allowing human trials of the Ad5-nCoV vaccine. "This vaccine candidate holds great promise," Iain Stewart, president of the National Research Council of Canada, said in a statement at the time.
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World takes stock of COVID-19 drug remdesivir after U.S. snaps up supplies

July 1, 2020 / 7:02 PM
SEOUL/BERLIN/LONDON (Reuters) - Some governments in Europe and Asia said on Wednesday they have enough of Gilead’s COVID-19 anti-viral remdesivir for now despite fears of shortages since the U.S. drugmaker pledged most output to its home market for the next three months.

The pharmaceutical company’s move stirred the global debate about equitable access to drugs and brought concerns about accessibility, especially in regions where coronavirus rates are still high or there have been new outbreaks. 

Remdesivir is in high demand after the intravenously-administered medicine helped shorten hospital recovery times in a clinical trial. It is believed to be most effective in treating COVID-19 patients earlier in the course of disease than other therapies like the steroid dexamethasone.

Still, because remdesivir is given intravenously over at least a five-day period it is generally being used on patients sick enough to require hospitalisation.

Britain and Germany said they had sufficient reserves for now, though they were weighing options for when those might be exhausted.

South Korea, for its part, has started distributing stocks, but plans talks to purchase more supplies in August.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) this week said it had secured all of Gilead’s projected production for July and 90% of its production in August and September, in addition to an allocation for clinical trials.
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Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Researchers print, tune graphene sensors to monitor food freshness, safety

Date: June 29, 2020

Source: Iowa State University

Summary: Researchers are using high-resolution printing technology and the unique properties of graphene to make low-cost biosensors to monitor food safety and livestock health. 

Researchers dipped their new, printed sensors into tuna broth and watched the readings.

It turned out the sensors -- printed with high-resolution aerosol jet printers on a flexible polymer film and tuned to test for histamine, an allergen and indicator of spoiled fish and meat -- can detect histamine down to 3.41 parts per million.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has set histamine guidelines of 50 parts per million in fish, making the sensors more than sensitive enough to track food freshness and safety.

Making the sensor technology possible is graphene, a supermaterial that's a carbon honeycomb just an atom thick and known for its strength, electrical conductivity, flexibility and biocompatibility. 
Making graphene practical on a disposable food-safety sensor is a low-cost, aerosol-jet-printing technology that's precise enough to create the high-resolution electrodes necessary for electrochemical sensors to detect small molecules such as histamine.

"This fine resolution is important," said Jonathan Claussen, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Iowa State University and one of the leaders of the research project. "The closer we can print these electrode fingers, in general, the higher the sensitivity of these biosensors."

Claussen and the other project leaders -- Carmen Gomes, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Iowa State; and Mark Hersam, the Walter P. Murphy Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois -- have recently reported their sensor discovery in a paper published online by the journal 2D Materials

The National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Air Force Research Laboratory and the National Institute of Standards and Technology have supported the project.

The paper describes how graphene electrodes were aerosol jet printed on a flexible polymer and then converted to histamine sensors by chemically binding histamine antibodies to the graphene. The antibodies specifically bind histamine molecules.

The histamine blocks electron transfer and increases electrical resistance, Gomes said. That change in resistance can be measured and recorded by the sensor.

"This histamine sensor is not only for fish," Gomes said. "Bacteria in food produce histamine. So it can be a good indicator of the shelf life of food."

The researchers believe the concept will work to detect other kinds of molecules, too.

"Beyond the histamine case study presented here, the (aerosol jet printing) and functionalization process can likely be generalized to a diverse range of sensing applications including environmental toxin detection, foodborne pathogen detection, wearable health monitoring, and health diagnostics," they wrote in their research paper.
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"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

Ludwig von Mises

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.

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