Baltic Dry Index. 1810 unch. Brent Crude 42.91
Spot Gold 1805
Coronavirus Cases 13/7/20
World 13,047,071
Deaths 570,331
"Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast."
Fed Chairman Powell, with
apologies to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
An interesting
week ahead. After all the recent rioting, looting, demonstrations, and lock
down easings, we should be passing or have just passed, the peak of any surge
of new coronavirus cases in the USA. We will see.
This week the rump-EU
members meet in Brussels to fight over who gets what, and on what terms from the
EU's 750 euro pandemic bailout scheme. It may ultimately determine if Italy follows
GB out of the wealth and jobs destroying European Union.
The Fedster’s are
out en-mass speechifying again. Presidents Bullard, Harker, and Williams, hit
the fake news trail, telling us all what a good job the Fedster’s have done,
why it’s necessary to leave no billionaire behind, and that it’s all our fault
for not wearing masks, staying six feet away from all billionaires, and of not
have worked harder and saved more in anticipation of Covid-19.
Don’t expect any
of them to touch on the Great Nixonian Error of Fiat Money, nor how fiat money
always ends.
We open with greed
still trumping fear in the stock casinos, as everyone and their dog know that
the central banksters will soon turn us all into billionaires. The trouble is,
when everyone is a billionaire what will the price of a loaf cost, and who will
want to work to produce one?
Asian shares firm, hope for best from U.S. earnings
July 13, 2020 /
1:32 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares got off to a firm start on
Monday as investors wagered U.S. earnings season would see most companies beat
forecasts given expectations had been lowered so far by coronavirus lockdowns. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS added 0.15%, having climbed sharply to a five-month peak last week on the back of surging Chinese stocks .CSI300.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 gained 1.3% and South Korea .KS11 0.9%. E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 rose 0.2% even as some U.S. states reported record new cases of COVID-19, a divergence that shows no sign of stopping.
“Ongoing grim U.S. COVID-19 infection news continues to be summarily ignored in favour of ongoing optimism regarding the time-line for the discovery and rapid roll-out of an effective vaccine and/or more policy support for asset prices and the U.S. economy,” said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at NAB.
“JP Morgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all report on Tuesday and there’s a view that the bar has been set pretty low for them to report the almost obligatory ‘better than expected’ results - the absence of forward guidance from many firms notwithstanding.”
Wednesday sees Goldman Sachs and Bank of NY report, while Thursday has Netflix and Morgan Stanley.
While bank shares rose sharply on Friday they have been badly lagging technology stocks, with analysts at Bank of America noting tech outperformance in the past six months was greatest since the 1999 tech bubble and the 2008 global financial crisis.
If the S&P 500 .SPX was just "tech, health care, Amazon, Google" the index would now be 4,173, they wrote in a note, way above the current level of 3,185. If made up of everything else, it would be 2,924.
“Central banks are crushing rate expectations, forcing risk-taking in credit markets,” they added.
More
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-extend-rally-u-s-earnings-to-test-optimism-idUKKCN24E01J
In other news outside of the central banksters gambling palaces, the coronavirus crisis is increasingly out of control. No amount of central bankster, billionaire mollycoddling, will alter what comes next in the global economy until we get the coronavirus crisis under control.
What plan(s) do we have for when new cases hit 1 million a week? Who will be travelling? Where? Why?
We are possibly just one month away from a global coronavirus summer economic calamity, with next winter’s flu season due to hit in October-December. Strangely, in the stock casinos no one seems to care.
WHO reports record daily increase in global coronavirus cases, up over 230,000
July 12, 2020 /
5:14 PM
(Reuters) - The World Health Organization reported a record increase in
global coronavirus cases on Sunday, with the total rising by 230,370 in 24
hours.
The biggest increases were from the United States, Brazil, India and
South Africa, according to a daily report. The previous WHO record for new
cases was 228,102 on July 10. Deaths remained steady at about 5,000 a day.
Global coronavirus cases were approaching 13 million on Sunday,
according to a Reuters tally, marking another milestone in the spread of the
disease that has killed more than 565,000 people in seven months.
Japan, U.S. discuss jump in coronavirus cases at U.S. military bases
July
13, 2020 / 4:00 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan and the United States are sharing
information about coronavirus infections at U.S. military bases after an
outbreak provoked ire in the southernmost prefecture of Okinawa, a top Japanese
official said on Monday.
Okinawa confirmed a total of 62 individuals - 39 at Marine Corps Air
Station Futenma, 22 at Camp Hansen and one at Camp Kinser - had tested positive
for the virus between Sunday and July 7.
“We will cooperate appropriately on this matter,” Chief Cabinet
Secretary Yoshihide Suga told a regular news briefing.
“Japan and the United States are sharing information about the activity
history of the infected military individuals.”
Okinawa is host to the bulk of U.S. military forces in Japan, whose
alliance with Washington is central to its security.
But many Okinawans associate the bases with problems from crime to
accidents, and want the Marines to reduce their presence or leave the area
altogether.
At the weekend, Okinawa Governor Denny Tamaki said it was “extremely
regrettable” that a large number of infections had occurred in a short time,
adding that Okinawans were “shocked” by the news.
“I can’t help but have strong doubts about the U.S. military’s measures
to prevent infections,” he said, adding that there were reports of personnel
leaving base for beach parties and visits to night life districts around
Independence Day on July 4.
On its Facebook page for Pacific bases, the Marine Corps said it was
prohibiting off-base activity for all installations across Okinawa, except
essential needs such as medical appointments approved by a commanding officer.
More
Florida sets one-day record with over 15,000 new COVID cases, more than most countries
July 12, 2020 /
4:14 PM
(Reuters) -
Florida reported a record increase of more than 15,000 new cases of COVID-19 in
24 hours on Sunday, as the Trump administration renewed its push for schools to
reopen and anti-mask protests were planned in Michigan and Missouri.
If Florida were a country, it would rank fourth in the world for the
most new cases in a day behind the United States, Brazil and India, according
to a Reuters analysis.
Florida’s daily increases in cases have already surpassed the highest
daily tally reported by any European country during the height of the pandemic
there. It has also broken New York state’s record of 12,847 new cases on April
10 when it was the epicenter of the U.S. outbreak.
The latest rise was reported a day after Walt Disney World in Orlando
reopened with a limited number of guests who were welcomed with a host of
safety measures, including masks and temperature checks.
Anti-mask activists in several states, including Florida and Michigan,
have organized protests against local mandates, arguing that the measures
infringe upon individual freedom.
Coronavirus infections are rising in about 40 states, according to a
Reuters analysis of cases for the past two weeks compared with the prior two
weeks. Nationally, the United States has broken global records by registering
about 60,000 new cases a day for the last four days in a row, according to a
Reuters tally. Hospitalizations and positive test rates are also rising in
Arizona, California, Florida and Texas.
More
In other US news,
American’s prepare for a long, hot, airconditioned summer. Let’s all hope those
aircon units all have the right kind of HEPA air filters.
How a ‘Heat Dome’ Forms—and Why This One Is So Perilous
A massive, intense heat wave is settling
over the continental US. The ravages of the Covid pandemic are going to make it
all the more deadly.
07.10.2020 07:00
AM
A perfect storm of crises is forming across the United States. Above our heads, a “heat dome” of high pressure could blast 80 percent of the continental US with temperatures over 90 degrees for the next few weeks. This coming in a summer when the Covid-19 lockdown has trapped people indoors, many without air-conditioning—and mass unemployment may mean that residents with AC units can’t afford to run them. Deeper still, the heat and the pandemic are exacerbating long-standing and deadly inequities that will only get deadlier this summer.
A heat dome “is really just sort of a colloquial term for a persistent and/or strong high-pressure system that occurs during the warm season, with the end result being a lot of heat,” says climate scientist Daniel Swain of UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability.
That high-pressure air descends from above and gets compressed as it nears the ground. Think about how much more pressure you experience at sea level than at the top of a mountain—what you’re feeling is the weight of the atmosphere on your shoulders. As the air descends and gets compressed, it heats up. “So the same air that's maybe 80 degrees a few thousand feet up, you bring that same air—without adding any extra energy to it—down to the surface in a high-pressure system and it could be 90, 95, 100 degrees,” says Swain.
At the same time, a high-pressure system keeps clouds from forming by
inhibiting upward vertical motion in the atmosphere. Oddly enough, it’s this
same phenomenon that produces extremely cold temperatures in the winter. “If
you don't have that upward vertical motion, you don't get clouds or storms,”
Swain says. “So when it's already cold and dark, that means the temperatures
can get really cold because of clear skies, as things radiate out at night. In
the warm season, that lack of clouds and lack of upward motion in the
atmosphere means it can get really hot because you have a lot of sunlight.”
That heat can accumulate over days or weeks, turning the heat dome into
a kind of self-perpetuating atmospheric cap over the landscape. On a normal
day, some of the sun’s energy evaporates water from the soil, meaning that
solar energy isn’t put toward further warming the air. But as the heat dome
persists, it blasts away the soil’s moisture, and that solar energy now goes
full-tilt into heating the air.
“So after a certain point, once it's been hot enough for long enough, it
becomes even easier to get even hotter,” says Swain. “And so that's why these
things can often be really persistent, because once they've been around for a
little while, they start to feed off of themselves.”
Unfortunately for the southwestern US, this is likely to unfold in the
next week or two. Normally at this time of year, monsoons would be drenching
the landscape, but no such storms are on the horizon.
“And so those super dry
land surfaces are going to amplify the heat and the persistence of this heat
dome,” says Swain. The central US and mountain states will also be sweltering
particularly badly over the next few weeks—heat domes tend to perpetuate
inland, where they more easily dry out the surface than in wetter
regions—though over three-quarters of the Lower 48 will be under the dome’s
influence.
More
Finally,
The New York Times takes a look at the Covid-19 future, before descending into
a typical NYT pro Biden PR promo piece.
It’s 2022. What Does Life Look Like?
The pandemic could shape the world, much as World War II
and the Great Depression did.
July 10, 2020
It’s 2022, and the coronavirus has at long last been defeated. After a
miserable year-and-a-half, alternating between lockdowns and new outbreaks,
life can finally begin returning to normal.
But it will not be the old normal. It will be a new world, with a
reshaped economy, much as war and depression reordered life for previous
generations.
Thousands of stores and companies that were vulnerable before the virus
arrived have disappeared. Dozens of colleges are shutting down, in the first
wave of closures in the history of American higher education. People have also
changed long-held patterns of behavior: Outdoor socializing is in, business
trips are out.
----All of this, obviously, is conjecture. The future is
unknowable. But the pandemic increasingly looks like one of the defining events
of our time. The best-case scenarios are now out of reach, and the United
States is suffering through a new virus surge that’s
worse than in any other country.
With help from economists, politicians and business
executives, I have tried to imagine what a post-Covid economy may look like.
One message I heard is that the course of the virus itself will play the
biggest role in the medium term. If scientific breakthroughs come quickly and
the virus is largely defeated this year, there may not be many permanent
changes to everyday life.
On the other hand, if a vaccine remains out of reach for
years, the long-term changes could be truly profound. Any industry that depends
on close human contact would be at risk.
Large swaths of the cruise-ship and theme-park industries might go away. So
could many movie theaters and minor-league baseball teams. The long-predicted demise of
the traditional department store would finally come to pass. Thousands of
restaurants would be wiped out (even if they would eventually be replaced by
different restaurants).
The changes that I’m imagining in this article are based
on neither an unexpectedly fast or slow resolution, but instead on what many
scientists consider the baseline. In this scenario, a vaccine will arrive
sometime in 2021. Until then, the world will endure waves of sickness, death
and uncertainty.
Before we get into the details, there is one more caveat
worth mentioning: Many things will not change. That’s one of history’s
lessons.
More
Covid-19 Corner
Though
hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the
first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes
unneeded.
So,
you think it’s safe to go back on a cruise line-prison ship.
Covid-19 Hits Cruise-Ship Crews Hard
Slow, arduous process for repatriating idled crew members increased their exposure to virus, according to newly released data
July 11, 2020 12:55 pm ET
Cruise-ship workers suffered from more confirmed cases of Covid-19 than
passengers, according to newly released
government data, suggesting that a slow, arduous process for
repatriating idled crew members increased their exposure to the contagious
virus.
Crew members also had more cases of “Covid-like illness” of undetermined
cause than passengers, according to the data released Friday to The Wall
Street Journal.
Most cruise ships disembarked passengers in March and April, as cruising
wound down due to the pandemic. It was difficult for crew members to get off
ships due to barriers including closed borders, lengthy quarantine periods and
the logistical difficulty of securing the necessary charter and commercial
flights.
More than two out of every three Covid-19 infections confirmed through
testing, at 69%, involved crew members, according to the data released by
the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. An even larger
percentage of cases of “Covid-like illness” involved ships’ employees, at 71%.
Passengers, of course, were far more numerous than crew, early in the pandemic,
but they were on ships for shorter periods.
The information provided by the CDC shows that some ships had their last
Covid-19 case as recently as June 21, long after the cruise lines stopped
taking passengers.
Passengers, who were generally older than crew members, died in greater
numbers than crew members, with 21 passenger deaths versus 12 crew deaths,
according to the CDC, the agency that looks out for the health of Americans.
The data, which covered 121 vessels, came from cruise-line reports and
public health officials’ counts and covered the period from March 1 to June
23, for what the CDC described as ships in the U.S. jurisdiction, though
not always in U.S. waters. Some cases of infection on cruise ships,
identified when people returned to their home countries, didn’t appear to have
been included, according to the Journal’s analysis.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-hits-cruise-ship-crews-hard-11594486510?mod=business_lead_pos3
Hong Kong third wave: 53 new coronavirus infections reported, majority are confirmed cases, medical source says
·
37 of the cases are confirmed, 16 relate to
those who tested preliminary positive, according to the source
·
Hong Kong is in its most alarming run of
Covid-19 cases since the public health crisis took hold, officials say
Tony Cheung Lilian Cheng Published:
3:43pm, 12 Jul, 2020
Hong Kong’s third wave of Covid-19 infections continued on Sunday with a medical
source reporting at least 53 more cases, most of which have been confirmed
while the remainder are those testing preliminary positive.
The situation as of 11am was that 37 people were verified as infected
with 16 awaiting confirmation they had the coronavirus.
It came a day after health authorities warned that thecurrent wave of infections hitting Hong Kong
was by far the most severe of the epidemic to date. On Saturday, at
least 61 people in the city were either confirmed as infected or returned
preliminary positive readings.
As of Saturday night, this month’s upsurge had taken the city’s Covid-19
total to 1,431 with seven deaths.
It is not known at this stage how many of Sunday’s new cases are locally
transmitted or imported.
Coronavirus: Hong Kong expert warns each infected person can now spread Covid-19 to four people
·
Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of HKU medical school,
says a strain of the virus has increased its infection rate by 30 per cent due
to a DNA mutation
·
Microbiologist Yuen Kwok-yung says the current
wave of new infections is almost certainly due to the lifting of
social-distancing measures
Emily Tsang Zoe Low Published:
12:04pm, 12 Jul, 2020
A top medical expert advising the Hong Kong government on Covid-19 has warned
that each infected person could transmit the coronavirus to four others, as the
virus has turned more infectious, while the city has now entered the most serious phase of the public health crisis.
Professor Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s medical
school, said he believed there were at least 50 to 60 hidden cases in the
community as an international study indicated a strain of the virus had
increased its infection rate by 30 per cent due to a DNA mutation.
He highlighted Kowloon East and Sha Tin as two areas most at risk of an outbreak and urged the government to
prioritise testing resources for the elderly.
“This is the start of a sustained massive local outbreak the likes of
which we have never seen before,” Leung said on a radio programme on Sunday.
On Saturday, health authorities warned that Hong Kong’s third wave of
Covid-19 was by far the most serious of the public health crisis to date, as at least 61 people in the city were either
confirmed as infected or had tested preliminary positive.
The city reported 16 local infections among 28 cases officially
confirmed on Saturday, while another 33 people were awaiting confirmation they
had caught the deadly virus.
The continued surge takes Hong Kong’s Covid-19 total to 1,431 with seven
deaths.
Saturday’s new local infections included
those from previously known clusters revolving around two restaurants – in Ping
Shek Estate of Kwun Tong district and in Jordan of Yau Tsim Mong district – as
well as an elderly care home: Kong Tai Care for the Aged Centre Limited in Tsz
Wan Shan.
---- On Sunday, Leung cited an international study
which suggested there was a DNA mutation in the most widely circulating strain
of the virus, which has changed from 614G from the previous 614D, making it
more infectious by about 31 per cent.
He said another local study confirmed such a trend, as the number of
people expected to be infected by each case increased in March from 2½ to
three, and had now risen to four. But there was no evidence to show that the
virus had become more deadly.
---- Speaking on a television programme on Sunday,
HKU microbiologist Professor Yuen Kwok-yung said the current wave of new
infections was almost certainly due to the lifting of social-distancing
measures.
“It is very obvious that when the government relaxes social-distancing
measures, the pandemic situation gets worse. The change is immediate,” he said.
More
Hong Kong Book Fair postponed amid spike in coronavirus cases
July 13, 2020 /
6:20 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) - The Hong Kong Book Fair has been postponed due to
a spike in locally transmitted coronavirus cases in the global financial hub,
the organiser said on Monday, just two days before the exhibition was due to
open.
The Hong Kong Trade Development Council said the fair, which draws one
million visitors annually, will be rescheduled at a later, unspecified date.
Three other July fairs and expos were postponed.
Hong Kong authorities have warned of an escalating third wave of
coronavirus infections, prompting the suspension of all schools and some
tighter social distancing requirements. The city has reported 1,470 cases and
seven deaths. Among the 38 new cases on Sunday, 30 were local infections.
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.
Porous graphene ribbons doped with nitrogen for electronics and quantum computing
Date:
July 8, 2020
Source:
University of Basel
Summary:
A team of physicists and chemists has produced the first porous graphene
ribbons in which specific carbon atoms in the crystal lattice are replaced with
nitrogen atoms. These ribbons have semiconducting properties that make them
attractive for applications in electronics and quantum computing.
Graphene consists of a single layer of carbon atoms arranged in a
honeycomb structure. The material is of interest not only in basic research but
also for various applications given to its unique properties, which include
excellent electrical conductivity as well as astonishing strength and rigidity.
Research teams around the world are working to further expand these
characteristics by substituting carbon atoms in the crystal lattice with atoms
of different elements. Moreover, the electric and magnetic properties can also
be modified by the formation of pores in the lattice.
Ladder-like structure
Now, a team of researchers led by the physicist Professor Ernst Meyer of
the University of Basel and the chemist Dr. Shi-Xia Liu from the University of
Bern have succeeded in producing the first graphene ribbons whose crystal
lattice contains both periodic pores and a regular pattern of nitrogen atoms.
The structure of this new material resembles a ladder, with each rung
containing two atoms of nitrogen.
In order to synthesize these porous, nitrogen-containing graphene
ribbons, the researchers heated the individual building blocks step by step on
a silver surface in a vacuum. The ribbons are formed at temperatures up to
220°C. Atomic force microscopy allowed the researchers not only to monitor the
individual steps in the synthesis, but also to confirm the perfect ladder
structure -- and stability -- of the molecule.
----From
the literature, it is known that a high concentration of nitrogen atoms in the
crystal lattice causes graphene ribbons to magnetize when subjected to a
magnetic field. "We expect these porous, nitrogen-doped graphene ribbons
to display extraordinary magnetic properties," says Ernst Meyer. "In
the future, the ribbons could therefore be of interest for applications in
quantum computing."
"It's no use going back to yesterday, because I was a different person then."
The Covid-19 Rest of the World. With apologies
to Lewis Carroll and Alice.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up.
SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.
The NASDAQ has remained up.
The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed
to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.
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