London Irvine Report: The 2020 Fed Fuelled Stock Mania.

Baltic Dry Index. 1799 + 05 Brent Crude 41.15

Spot Gold 1784

Coronavirus Cases 01/7/20 World 10,634,195

Deaths 514,931

Happy Birthday Canada.

"I don't even know what street Canada is on.”

Al Capone, bootlegger.

Well that was all too easy and predictable. With the end of quarter and end of half year to dress up, and unlimited free money from the Fed, tech stocks were goosed, which quickly moved the other indexes higher as stocks Monday and Tuesday were in a one way street.

But out in the real world, that one way street is leading towards a very different reality. A reality of missed rent and mortgage payments, rising bankruptcy filings, renewed unemployment claims, rising coronavirus new cases, and all too soon a tapering off of all the central bankster relief programs.

Soon enough too, starting next year rising taxes to begin to pay for all the 2020 US election year cash spigots.

Though stock markets are supposed to be forward looking, price discovery mechanisms, for now they only respond to the central banks fuelled stock manias. But I suspect, not for too much longer.

The lock down relief retail rally is probably close to over. China’s new laws suppressing Hong Kong take effect today. How will the USA and Britain and Europe respond? A consumer demand slowdown looms over the second half of 2020.

And as President Trump increasingly looks to become a “one termer,” a stock market socialist President Biden price shock awaits.

Below, the stock casinos heading for a 1987 repeat? That’s what it looks like to this old dinosaur relic.

Asian shares inch higher as data drives rebound hopes

July 1, 2020 / 1:01 AM

(Reuters) - Asian stocks struggled for headway on Wednesday as the second half of the year got underway, with improving economic data offset by worries that surging coronavirus cases in the United States could derail the world’s recovery before it properly begins.

Following firm U.S. housing data and signs of a rebound in Europe’s economy, the latest boost to sentiment came from Chinese factory activity gathering steam in June, with the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI rising to 51.2 compared with expectations for 50.5.

But virus cases surged, too, with the U.S. recording 47,000 infections on Tuesday, its biggest single-day spike since the pandemic began.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS rose 0.4%, led by gains in Korea .KS11 and China .CSI300.

Japan's Nikkei .N225 slipped 0.2%, though, U.S. stock futures ESc1 fell 0.3% and gold sat close to an eight-year peak, pointing to elevated caution.

The moves follow a strong finish to the quarter on Wall Street and also a loss of momentum in recent weeks as U.S. infection rates have surged, with some states reimposing restrictions on business and personal activity.

---- The S&P 500 .SPX index rose 1.5% for an almost 20% gain over the past three months, fuelled by unprecedented central bank stimulus and hopes for a swift pandemic recovery, but it rose only 1.8% in June.

Coronavirus cases more than doubled in 14 U.S. states last month, a Reuters analysis showed, and fears are growing that the caseload could prompt fresh lockdowns.

“Clearly we are not in total control right now,” the country’s top infectious disease expert, Anthony Fauci, told a Senate committee on Tuesday, adding that cases could increase by as much as 100,000 daily if the outbreak is not contained.

The surge has prompted California, Texas and Florida to shut recently re-opened bars in the last few days, while Australia has locked-down parts of its second-biggest city, Melbourne, to try and stop a spike in cases there.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-markets/asian-shares-inch-higher-as-data-drives-rebound-hopes-idUKKBN2413UE

Dow rises 216 points, records best quarterly gain since 1987

June 30, 2020 / 12:15 PM / Updated June 30, 2020 at 4:49 PM

June 30 (UPI) -- The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 216 points on Tuesday, recording its best single-quarter gain in decades.

The Dow rose 0.85 percent to close the second quarter, while the S&P 500 gained 1.53 percent and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.87 percent.

All three major indexes posted their third consecutive monthly gains with the Dow rising 1.7 percent in June, while the S&P increased 1.8 percent and the Nasdaq Composite grew 6 percent.

For the quarter, the Dow gained 17.8 percent -- its largest quarterly rally since 1987 when it rose 21.6 percent -- the S&P 500 had its greatest quarterly gain since 1998, rising nearly 20 percent and the Nasdaq gained 30.6 percent for the quarter, its best since 1999.

Tech stocks and shares of aerospace giant Boeing boosted U.S. stocks on Monday, when the Dow closed by 580 points.

On Tuesday, tech stocks continued to rise as Amazon stock increased 2.93 percent, Facebook grew 2.91 percent and Netflix gained 1.74 percent.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell also delivered mixed testimony on Tuesday with Mnuchin saying the economy is in a position to make a strong recovery from the pandemic while Powell expressed more uncertainty.

"Output and unemployment remain far below their pre-pandemic levels. The path forward for the economy is extraordinarily uncertain and will depend in large part on our success in containing the virus," said Powell. "A full recovery is unlikely until people are confident that it is safe to re-engage in a broad range of activities."

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2020/06/30/Dow-rises-216-points-records-best-quarterly-gain-since-1987/8721593528491/

But, does this look like a “V” shaped recovery to anyone outside of the stock casinos, or theTrump re-election campaign, aka the Fed?

Broadway to remain closed through 2020

June 29, 2020 / 1:04 PM

June 29 (UPI) -- The Broadway League announced on Monday that Broadway performances in New York City will remain suspended throughout the remainder of 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Broadway theaters are offering refunds and exchanges for tickets purchased for all shows through Jan. 3, 2021.

Productions are set to resume performances over a series of rolling dates starting in early 2021.
Tickets for Broadway shows scheduled for next winter and spring are expected to go on sale in the coming weeks.

The Broadway League, the national trade association for the Broadway industry, will continue to work with government and medical officials on the best plan to reopen.

https://www.upi.com/Entertainment_News/2020/06/29/Broadway-to-remain-closed-through-2020/1051593447853/

Workers getting laid off for second time as virus's surge closes businesses

Eli Rosenberg and Abha Bhattarai, The Washington Post

Published 12:40 pm CDT, Tuesday, June 30, 2020

When she was first furloughed in March, Randee Heitzmann knew how to make ends meet.

She deferred payments on her new Honda Civic, spent $3,000 in stimulus money and tax returns on other payments, and drained her savings.

Then she was called back to her job, as a bartender at a cigar bar near Dallas for five weeks, taking home about $100 per shift, just 20% of what she was used to.

But on Friday, Heitzmann was cut loose again, hours before her shift was to begin.

"I don't have any savings left," the 28-year-old said. "I don't know how long it's going to be before I get a paycheck again."

Millions of American workers are suffering from economic whiplash, thinking they were finally returning to work only to be sent home again because of the coronavirus's latest surge. Stores, restaurants, gyms and other businesses that reopened weeks ago are shuttering again, and this time Congress appears less inclined to provide additional aid. Other businesses that had banked on customers returning and restrictions lifting - such as hotel chains, construction firms and movie theaters - are seeing hours cut and reopening dates pushed back indefinitely as consumer demand stalls.

----Thousands of workers are caught in these rapidly shifting seas, many of them hourly and low-wage service employees, and are now facing unemployment for a second time. They say the past few months have been jarring: navigating unemployment in March, preparing to go back to work in April or May, and now confronting the prospect of what could be another long stretch without a paycheck.

This time, many say they're on even shakier financial ground as they topple into yet another period without a job. They face what experts have begun calling a "fiscal cliff": the July end date for the $600 in weekly supplemental aid that has helped keep so many families afloat.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/business/article/Workers-getting-laid-off-for-second-time-as-15377041.php

A cash cliff spells trouble for U.S. unemployed, and everyone else

Jonnelle Marte, Ann Saphir June 29, 2020 / 11:10 AM

(Reuters) - Judith Ramirez is bracing for July. That’s when the hotel housekeeper and her electrician husband - who have both been out of work for three months - expect their combined unemployment benefits to drop by more than half, and their deferred $1,500 monthly mortgage payment on their Honolulu home to come due.

It’s a cash cliff millions of Americans face this summer as the emergency benefits — which lifted U.S. consumer incomes by a record 10.8% in April — expire. The loss of that safety net looms in the weeks ahead, well before a sustained recovery is likely to take hold from the sudden and deep recession brought on by the novel coronavirus. Personal income dropped 4.2% in May, data Friday showed.

The $600 supplement Congress added to weekly unemployment benefits is due to expire July 31.

Without new support, recipients face a substantial loss of income - particularly devastating for those like the Ramirez family who worked in hard-hit sectors like hospitality where new jobs are scarce.

During high unemployment and a still-raging pandemic, the end of enhanced jobless benefits could drag on consumer spending, set off a wave of missed rent and mortgage payments and translate to a slower recovery, economists said.

---- As the novel coronavirus pandemic exploded in March and local authorities shut down large parts of the U.S. economy, the Trump administration and Congress softened the blow by moving quickly to roll out a patchwork of emergency aid.

The centerpiece: stimulus checks for most households and more generous unemployment benefits for tens of millions of newly jobless Americans.

The combined cash aid provided $3 in support for every $1 in lost income in April, Oxford Economics’ Gregory Daco estimated. And until it expires on July 31, the extra $600 weekly unemployment payment on average makes up for income lost due to unemployment and reduced hours, he said.

Indeed about two-thirds people eligible for unemployment benefits can collect more in benefits than they earned while working, researchers from the University of Chicago found.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-cliff-analysis-idUSKBN24014U?taid=5ef9c889d50dbc00016bc39d

Nearly half the U.S. population is without a job, showing how far the labor recovery has to go

Published Mon, Jun 29 20201:09 PM EDTUpdated Mon, Jun 29 20204:53 PM EDT

The employment-population ratio — the number of employed people as a percentage of the U.S. adult population — plunged to 52.8% in May, meaning 47.2% of Americans are jobless.
As the coronavirus-induced shutdown tore through the labor market, the share of population employed dropped sharply from a recent high of 61.2% in January, farther away from a post-war record of 64.7% in 2000.
“To get the employment-to-population ratio back to where it was at its peak in 2000 we need to create 30 million jobs,” said Torsten Slok, Deutsche Bank’s chief economist.
Investors will look to this week’s June jobs report for an update on the pace of the labor market recovery.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/29/nearly-half-the-us-population-is-without-a-job-showing-how-far-the-labor-recovery-has-to-go.html

Quick recovery of German economy "off the table" - DIHK

June 30, 2020 / 9:40 AM

BERLIN (Reuters) - A V-shaped recovery of the German economy from the impact of the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely, with two thirds of companies expecting a return to normalcy in 2021 at the earliest, business association DIHK said on Tuesday.

“The V is off the table,” DIHK said, adding that its survey of 8,500 companies confirms its forecast for a 10% slump in Germany’s economy this year.

The association added that four out of five companies expect their sales to decline this year. “These numbers show the great uncertainty among our companies.”

Germany is planning to implement stimulus measures worth more than 130 billion euros ($146 billion) overall to cushion the blow of the pandemic, including a temporary cut in value-added tax and funds to rescue small firms from bankruptcy.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-germany-economy/quick-recovery-of-german-economy-off-the-table-dihk-idUKKBN24112Z?il=0

Airbus to slash 15,000 jobs amid pandemic

June 30, 2020 / 3:58 PM

June 30 (UPI) -- Airbus announced plans Tuesday to lay off approximately 15,000 workers over the next year as the coronavirus pandemic further tamps down on travel worldwide.

The Dutch company said the layoffs would take place by summer 2021.

"Airbus is facing the gravest crisis this industry has ever experienced," Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said in a statement. "The measures we have taken so far have enabled us to absorb the initial shock of this global pandemic. Now, we must ensure that we can sustain our enterprise and emerge from the crisis as a healthy, global aerospace leader, adjusting to the overwhelming challenges of our customers.

"To confront that reality, we must now adopt more far-reaching measures."

Of the positions cut, 5,100 will be in Germany, 5,000 in France, 1,700 in Britain, 900 in Spain and 1,300 at other sites.

Airbus said it made the cuts because commercial aircraft business has dropped 40 percent in recent months and air travel isn't expected to recover to pre-pandemic levels until as late as 2025.

Airbus' announcement came the same day Air France said it planned to cut more than 7,500 jobs over the next two years, according to France24.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/06/30/Airbus-to-slash-15000-jobs-amid-pandemic/8451593542827/

“Socialism only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they already have it.”

Ronald Reagan.

Covid-19 Corner

Though hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Global COVID-19 prevention trial of hydroxychloroquine to resume

June 30, 2020 / 8:20 AM

LONDON (Reuters) - A global trial designed to test whether the anti-malaria drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can prevent infection with COVID-19 is to restart after being approved by British regulators.

The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) took its decision on what is known as the COPCOV trial after hydroxychloroquine was found in another British trial to have no benefit as a treatment for patients already infected with COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus.

The COPCOV study was paused pending review after the treatment trial results.

It is a randomised, placebo-controlled trial that is aiming to enrol 40,000 healthcare workers and other at-risk staff around the world, and is being led by the Oxford University’s Mahidol Oxford Tropical Medicine Research Unit (MORU) in the Thai capital, Bangkok.

---- But White, who is co-leadng the COPCOV trial, said studies of the drugs as a potential preventative medicine had not yet given a conclusive answer.

“Hydroxychloroquine could still prevent infections, and this needs to be determined in a randomised controlled trial,” he said in a statement. “The question whether (it) can prevent COVID-19 or not remains as pertinent as ever.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine/global-covid-19-prevention-trial-of-hydroxychloroquine-to-resume-idUKKBN2410T2?il=0

Italian study shows lower viral load in COVID-19 patients in May than April peak

June 29, 2020 / 11:38 AM

MILAN (Reuters) - A small study by researchers in Italy has found that COVID-19 patients who were tested for the novel coronavirus at a hospital there in May had fewer virus particles than those who were tested a month earlier.

The researchers offered some theories for the lower “viral load”, including that lockdown measures may have reduced patients’ exposure to the virus, but their study did not provide evidence to explain their finding.

Another Italian doctor said last month that “the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy”, suggesting the interaction between the virus and its human host had changed.

Alberto Zangrillo, head of intensive care at Italy’s San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, said at the time that his comments would be reinforced by soon-to-be published research co-led by fellow scientist Massimo Clementi.

But Clementi’s study, published on Monday in the journal Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, did not look for mutations in the virus or changes in patients that might explain why the illness seemed less severe overall in the May patients.

Instead, it looked for links between illness severity and the amount of virus - the viral load - in the patients.

The researchers analysed 200 nasopharyngeal swabs taken at the San Raffaele hospital. Half were from patients treated in April - at the pandemic’s peak - and half were from patients treated in May.

Based on the results, the researchers calculated that patients’ viral loads were higher in April. Patients swabbed in April also had more severe symptoms and were more likely to need hospitalisation and intensive care, they found.

Viral loads were similar in men and women, but were higher in patients aged 60 and over, and in those with severe COVID-19.

Clementi’s team said that while it was theoretically possible that the new coronavirus had mutated, they did not have molecular data to prove it.

Other possible explanations include wider use of social distancing in May versus April, warmer temperatures, increased use of face masks and hand-washing, and less pollution, they said.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-study/italian-study-shows-lower-viral-load-in-covid-19-patients-in-may-than-april-peak-idUKKBN24017V

Italy's Cassandra: the scientist who challenged WHO guidelines

June 29, 2020 / 4:29 PM

ROME (Reuters) - Andrea Crisanti says his one regret is that he didn’t yell loudly enough at the beginning, when the dead had yet to pile up. 

The Italian virologist has become a medical celebrity at home, a contrarian who broke with initial  World Health  Organization  (WHO) guidelines  on testing for the new coronavirus, deeming them narrow and “stupid” — something the U.N. agency denies.

While the WHO was advising governments back in January to only test people showing symptoms of the virus, Crisanti, professor of microbiology at Padua University, was convinced that some people could catch the disease and spread it without even realising they were ill.

To combat such symptomless transmission, the 65-year-old scientist called for broad testing even before the first flare-up came to light in Italy in February. However, his request was rejected by officials in his northern Veneto region, who relied initially on guidance from national and international health authorities.

“All infectious diseases have an asymptomatic transmission component. The longer the asymptomatic period, the more it has the ability to transmit,” Crisanti told Reuters this month. “The WHO guidelines were wrong.”

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-crisanti/italys-cassandra-the-scientist-who-challenged-who-guidelines-idUKKBN240233

Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Rt Covid-19

https://rt.live/

Covid19info.live

https://wuflu.live/

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21^st century onwards.

Iberdrola joins partnership to build Basque country’s ‘largest’ solar PV plant

The 100MW plant could triple the region’s solar generation capacity of 60MW and reduce 25,000 tonnes of CO2 annually
30 June, 2020.

Spanish electric utility Iberdrola has joined a public-private partnership (PPP) that seeks to develop the Basque Country’s largest solar photovoltaic (PV) plant.

Iberdrola is joined by the co-operative Mondragon Group, the Provincial Council of Alava and the Basque Government’s energy agency EVE to develop the 100MW EKIENEA project.

The project has attracted €70 million (£63.7m) of investment and could generate enough clean electricity to supply more than 160,000 people, in addition to reducing 25,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide annually.

The renewable project is estimated to triple the Basque Country’s current solar generation capacity of 60MW

The EKIENEA plant is expected to generate hundreds of jobs in construction and maintenance and will also use its land area for the preservation of forests.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/06/30/iberdrola-joins-partnership-to-build-basque-countrys-largest-solar-pv-plant/

‘World’s longest’ subsea cable project worth £2bn passes halfway point

The two parallel 720 kilometres cables will connect the UK and Norwegian electricity grids
26 June, 2020.

Construction of the ‘longest subsea power cable in the world’ has now passed the halfway point.
National Grid and the Norwegian system operator have joined forces to bring a subsea electricity cable project into life.

Named ‘North Sea Link’, the project will have a cable, which will connect the UK and Norwegian electricity grids.

When wind generation is high and electricity demand is low in the UK, North Sea Link will allow up to 1,400MW of power to flow from the UK, conserving water in Norway’s reservoirs.

If the demand is high in the UK and there is low wind generation, up to 1,400MW could flow from Norway, helping to secure electricity supplies.

Engineering teams worked at depths of up to 210 metres and the laying of the 2.8 kilometres- parallel subsea cables was executed from a platform, equivalent to the size of two tennis courts.

By 2021, the two parallel 720 kilometres cables between Northumberland in the UK and Kvilldal, in Norway are expected to be completed, making North Sea Link the longest subsea power cable interconnector in the world.

Nigel Williams, Construction Director for National Grid North Sea link, said: “The engineering, which has taken place to lay high-voltage cables below the seabed is remarkable.

“The difficult terrain, the depth of the waters and all in amidst of operating during a pandemic has made it extremely challenging. Nevertheless, we have powered through and remained on track with our project timelines.”

Once North Sea Link is operational, the 1.4GW electricity interconnector will allow the UK to import enough clean energy to power up to 1.4 million homes.

https://www.energylivenews.com/2020/06/26/worlds-longest-subsea-cable-project-worth-2bn-passes-halfway-point/

“I sometimes get the impression that many U.S. media outlets work according to a principle which was common in the Soviet Union. Back then, people used to joke that the newspaper Pravda [Truth] had no truth in it, and the Izvestia [News] paper has no news in it. I get the impression that many U.S. media operate in the same way.”

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. May 2017.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.