Monday, 6 July 2020

Skyscrapers, WeWork, NYC, Canary Wharf, Is It Over?


Baltic Dry Index. 1894 + 71 Brent Crude 43.06
Spot Gold 1772

Coronavirus Cases 06/7/20 World 11,572,240
Deaths 536,768

“They had stumbled either upon a serious flaw in modern financial markets or into a great gambling run. Characteristically, they were not sure which it was. As Charlie pointed out, “It’s really hard to know when you’re lucky and when you’re smart.”

Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.

We open, as usual, in the fantasy world of central bankster, fiat money fuelled, world of stock market casino gambling. If we didn’t know better, we might think that the Fed and the rest, were deliberately stoking up social division, wealth inequality, and revolution.

Asia shares climb as China blue chips hit five-year peak

July 6, 2020 / 1:41 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian shares scaled four-month peaks on Monday as investors counted on super-cheap liquidity and fiscal stimulus to sustain the global economic recovery, even as surging coronavirus cases delayed re-openings across the United States.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS climbed 1% to its highest since February.

Eyes were on Chinese blue chips .CSI300, which jumped 3%, on top of a 7% gain last week, to their loftiest level in five years. Even Japan's Nikkei .N225, which has lagged with a soft domestic economy, managed a rise of 1.3%.

“We think there is a case for raising tactical allocation on Asian equities in the context of global equity portfolios,” wrote analysts at Nomura in a note.

“We see a number of catalysts that could drive Asia ex-Japan (AeJ) equities’ outperformance over U.S. equities in the near term,” they added. “Better COVID-19 trends and mobility data in economies/markets that dominate the AeJ index should translate into faster economic recovery vs the U.S.”

E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 also firmed 0.8%, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 added 1.8% and FTSE futures FFIc1 1.5%.

Most markets had gained ground last week as a raft of economic data from June beat expectations, though the resurgence of coronavirus cases in the United States is clouding the future.

In the first four days of July alone, 15 states have reported record increases in new cases of COVID-19, which has infected nearly 3 million Americans and killed about 130,000, according to a Reuters tally.
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Now back to the harsh real world where everyone else lives. The great real estate bubble is already bursting and we’re only at the start of the tsunami of coming bankruptcies, mortgage defaults, rent defaults, and eventually, mass evictions. 

What do you do with largely fast emptying, death trap skyscrapers built for happier times in a bygone era? Suggestions please to Chairman Powell, Federal Reserve Bank, Eccles Building, Washington, District of Crooks.

Fujitsu to halve office space by end-FY2022 citing 'new normal'

July 6, 2020 / 3:07 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s Fujitsu Ltd (6702.T) said on Monday it would halve its office space by the end of the fiscal year through March 2023 as it rewrites the way employees work under a “new normal” amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Under a concept dubbed “Work Life Shift”, the IT solutions giant said its roughly 80,000 group employees in Japan would work flexible hours, and work-from-home would be standard wherever possible.

Real Estate Prices Fall Sharply in New York

Since the coronavirus shut the city down, the number of sales in Manhattan dropped 54 percent and the median price fell to $1 million.
July 2, 2020

The coronavirus has dealt a blow to the Manhattan real estate market unmatched in recent history, and the prospects of a near-term recovery remain unclear.

The number of closed sales in the second quarter were down 54 percent compared to the same period last year, the largest decline in at least 30 years, according to a new report from the brokerage 
Douglas Elliman. The median sales price fell 17.7 percent, compared to the same time last year, to $1 million, the biggest drop in a decade.

The number of contracts signed for apartments in June, the latest indicator of buyer appetite, was 
down 76 percent, compared to the same time last year.

“This is what you get when the market is not able to function,” said Jonathan Miller, a New York appraiser and the author of the report, noting that in-person apartment showings in New York City were banned for nearly the entire quarter. “It’s an extreme moment, to put it lightly.”
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WeDone: South Beach landlord seeks to evict WeWork for unpaid rent

Embattled co-working giant allegedly owes $660K at South of Fifth location
July 03, 2020 06:51 PM  
The landlord of a WeWork location in South Beach is looking to evict the embattled co-working giant for what it says is more than $650,000 in unpaid rent.

A photo obtained by The Real Deal shows the three-day notice tacked onto the door of the 43,500-square-foot building at 429 Lenox Avenue, which is fully occupied by WeWork.

WeWork did not pay rent in April, May or June, according to the notice. WeWork began operating at the South of Fifth location in early 2016, and its triple-net lease runs until 2031.
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End Of An Era: WeWork Closing Its First-Ever Location

30 June 2020

WeWork is shutting down the location of its first-ever coworking space as the company moves to reassess its vast global footprint.
More.

Nightmare in New York: How Covid-19, BLM protests and a liberal mayor are turning the city into a no-go zone as murders skyrocket, shops are looted and 500,000 middle-class residents flee

·         The number of shooting victims has gone up 51 per cent to 616 this year in NYC
·         In June, there were 250 shootings compared to 97 in the same month in 2019 
·         Many blame New York’s mayor, Bill de Blasio, who has slashed police funding
·         New York state has suffered the highest coronavirus death toll in America 

World’s Largest Pension Fund Loses $165 Billion in Worst Quarter

By Shoko Oda and Shigeki Nozawa
July 3, 2020, 7:30 AM GMT+1 Updated on July 3, 2020, 9:02 AM GMT+1

The world’s biggest pension fund posted a record loss in the first three months of 2020 after the coronavirus pandemic sparked a global market rout in the period.

Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund lost 11%, or 17.7 trillion yen ($164.7 billion), in the three months ended March, it said in Tokyo on Friday. The decline in value was the steepest based on comparable data back to April 2008, reducing the fund’s total assets to 150.63 trillion yen. Foreign stocks were the worst performing investment, followed by domestic equities.

The results come just months after the fund revamped top management and revised its asset allocation to focus more on overseas debt. The loss, which wiped out gains for the fiscal year, may attract political attention as social security remains a major concern for tens of millions of Japan’s retirees.

“The decline in domestic and foreign equities led to a negative return for the fiscal year,” said Masataka Miyazono, the president of GPIF. “Both equity markets performed strongly during 2019 even under pressures from the U.S.-China trade negotiations. The global coronavirus pandemic led to investors taking a risk-off stance.”

Overseas bonds were the only major asset to generate a positive quarterly return. The securities gained 0.5%, compared with losses of 0.5% for domestic bonds, 18% for local equities and 22% for foreign stocks. In April, GPIF raised its asset allocation to foreign bonds by 10 percentage points to 25%, while keeping the target for foreign and domestic stocks unchanged at 25%.

Naoki Fujiwara, the chief fund manager at Shinkin Asset Management Co., said the losses were expected. Equities have rebounded since March, so the pension fund should be recouping losses for the April-June period, Fujiwara said.

“The current portfolio is exposed to equity volatility,” he said. “We’re in a low-yield environment right now, and will likely be for the next two years, so maybe it’s alright for now, but in the long run, the pension fund should correct the allocation of equities.”
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Finally, Shell is thinking of moving its headquarters from Holland to London.  But, the BOE, Bliar, Brown and Obama gang, said after Brexit everyone would leave London for unsafe Paris, boring Frankfurt, risky Amsterdam, dubious Dublin, or the Siberian wasteland of Luxemburg. What happened? What went so wrong in Utopian Euroland?

Shell CEO does not rule out moving headquarters to Britain

July 4, 2020 / 10:07 AM
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L) is not ruling out moving its headquarters from the Netherlands to Britain, the oil company’s chief executive Ben van Beurden said in a Dutch newspaper interview published on Saturday.

Anglo-Dutch consumer products giant Unilever (ULVR.L) (UNA.AS) said last month it plans to ditch its dual Anglo-Dutch legal structure and create a single entity in Britain.

Van Beurden did not explicitly say Shell wants to move its headquarters, het Financieele Dagblad said.

“You always need to keep thinking,” Shell’s Van Beurden told the newspaper. “Nothing is permanent and of course we will look at the business climate. But moving your headquarters is not a trivial measure. You cannot think too lightly about that.”

A Shell spokesman confirmed the CEO’s comments to Reuters and said the company was looking at ways to simplify its dual structure, as it had been doing for many years.

Shell has a complex Anglo-Dutch holding structure with a tax residency and headquarters in the Netherlands and a registered office in Britain.

Unilever’s decision to move followed the scrapping in 2018 of a plan by Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to do away with a 15% dividend withholding tax.

Shell’s corporate structure features the parent company headquarters in The Hague but two share classes and other arrangements to prevent the Dutch government from levying withholding tax on dividends paid to shareholders of its former British arm.

The arrangement has come under renewed scrutiny after the Dutch government tried to scrap the dividend tax as an incentive to convince Unilever to unify its dual structure in Rotterdam.

Rutte abandoned the plan after a popular outcry over the tax cut, which was seen as a gift to rich foreigners.

Shell has consistently lobbied against the dividend tax, which it says makes financing dividends, share buy-backs and acquisitions more difficult.

“Because the lenders sold many—though not all—of the loans they made to other investors, in the form of mortgage bonds, the industry was also fraught with moral hazard. “It was a fast-buck business,” says Jacobs. “Any business where you can sell a product and make money without having to worry how the product performs is going to attract sleazy people.”

Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine.

Covid-19 Corner                       

Though hopefully, we are passing/have passed the peak of new cases, at least of the first SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, this section will continue until it becomes unneeded.

Hundreds of scientists say coronavirus is airborne, ask WHO to revise recommendations: NYT

July 5, 2020 / 5:48 PM
(Reuters) - Hundreds of scientists say there is evidence that novel coronavirus in smaller particles in the air can infect people and are calling for the World Health Organization to revise recommendations, the New York Times reported on Saturday.

The WHO has said the coronavirus disease spreads primarily from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth, which are expelled when a person with COVID-19 coughs, sneezes or speaks. 

In an open letter to the agency, which the researchers plan to publish in a scientific journal next week, 239 scientists in 32 countries outlined the evidence showing smaller particles can infect people, the NYT said nyti.ms/2VIxp67.

The WHO did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Reuters.

Whether carried by large droplets that zoom through the air after a sneeze, or by much smaller exhaled droplets that may glide the length of a room, the coronavirus is borne through air and can infect people when inhaled, the scientists said, according to the NYT.

However, the health agency said the evidence for the virus being airborne was not convincing, according to the NYT.
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Australia closes state border for first time in 100 years to halt coronavirus

July 6, 2020 / 3:18 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) - The border between Australia’s two most populous states will close from Tuesday for an indefinite period, Victoria Premier Daniel Andrews said on Monday, following an outbreak of the coronavirus in his state.

The decision marks the first time the border with neighbouring New South Wales has been shut in 100 years - officials last blocked movement between the two states in 1919 during the Spanish flu pandemic. 

The number of COVID-19 cases in Melbourne, Victoria’s capital, has surged in recent days, prompting authorities to enforce strict social-distancing orders in 30 suburbs and put nine public housing towers into complete lockdown.

The state reported 127 new COVID-19 infections overnight, its biggest one-day spike since the pandemic began. It also reported one death, the first nationally in more than two weeks, taking the country’s total tally to 105.

“It is the smart call, the right call at this time, given the significant challenges we face in containing this virus,” Andrews told reporters in Melbourne as he announced the border closure.

The closure will, however, likely be a blow to Australia’s economic recovery as it heads into its first recession in nearly three decades.

---- Australia has fared better than many countries in the coronavirus pandemic, with just short of 8,500 cases so far, but the Melbourne outbreak has raised alarm bells. The country has reported an average of 109 cases daily over the past week, compared with an average of just 9 cases daily over the first week of June.

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds

Published Wed, Jul 1 202011:41 AM EDT Updated Thu, Jul 2 20209:11 AM EDT
The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years. 

Researchers found that the excess number of deaths over normal levels also exceeded those attributed to Covid-19, leading them to conclude that many of those fatalities were likely caused by the coronavirus but not confirmed. State reporting discrepancies and a sharp increase in U.S. deaths amid a pandemic suggest the number of Covid-19 fatalities is undercounted, they said.

“Our analyses suggest that the official tally of deaths due to Covid-19 represent a substantial undercount of the true burden,” Dan Weinberger, an epidemiologist at Yale School of Public Health and a lead author of the study, told CNBC. Weinberger said other factors could contribute to the increase in deaths, such as people avoiding emergency treatment for things like heart attacks. 
However, he doesn’t think that is the main driver.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Health.

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were about 122,300, or nearly 19% higher, than what would normally be expected, according to the researchers. 
Of the 122,300 excess deaths, 95,235 were attributed to Covid-19, they said. Most of the rest of the excess deaths, researchers said, were likely related to or directly caused by the coronavirus.
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Will COVID-19 fears stop you from hurricane evacuation? In Florida, 2 out of 5 say yes

June 02, 2020 01:41 PM , Updated June 05, 2020 06:47 AM
Coronavirus is no longer keeping South Floridians at home. But that might change if or when a hurricane threatens the state.

A new survey by AAA shows that two out of five people — 42 percent — surveyed in Florida say fear of being exposed to COVID-19 makes them less likely to evacuate under a hurricane warning.

Not only that: More than a quarter of Florida residents say they would refuse to leave their homes if they were told to evacuate.

AAA’s annual hurricane season survey also reports that 31 percent of Floridians are more worried than ever about the 2020 hurricane season, which began June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Their anxiety is justified: The state is already making plans for possible evacuations as the pandemic continues and considering how to maintain social distance in traditionally crowded shelters.

NOAA has already predicted an above-average hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms and six to 10 hurricanes, with three to six of them major. The earliest third named storm on record, Tropical Storm Cristobal, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico.

“The coronavirus just complicates matters even more for those preparing for what is forecast to be an active hurricane season,” said Mark Jenkins, spokesman, AAA — The Auto Club Group, in a press release. “AAA urges families to develop an emergency plan now. Your plan should include several evacuation destinations, in case a shelter or hotel is closed due to the pandemic.”
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Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards.

Building a harder diamond

Date: July 1, 2020

Source: University of Tsukuba

Summary: Scientists create a theoretical carbon-based material that would be even harder than diamond. This work may have industrial applications for cutting and polishing in place of current synthetic diamond.

Researchers at the University of Tsukuba used computer calculations to design a new carbon-based material even harder than diamond. This structure, dubbed "pentadiamond" by its creators, may be useful for replacing current synthetic diamonds in difficult cutting manufacturing tasks.

Diamonds, which are made entirely of carbon atoms arranged in a dense lattice, are famous for their unmatched hardness among known materials. However, carbon can form many other stable configurations, called allotropes. These include the familiar graphite in pencil lead, as well as nanomaterials such as carbon nanotubes. The mechanical properties, including hardness, of an allotrope depend mostly on the way its atoms bond with each other. In conventional diamonds, each carbon atom forms a covalent bond with four neighbors. Chemists call carbon atoms like this as having sp3 hybridization. In nanotubes and some other materials, each carbon forms three bonds, called sp2 hybridization.

Now, researchers at the University of Tsukuba have explored what would happen if carbon atoms were arranged in a more complex structure with a mixture of sp3 and sp2 hybridization.

"Carbon allotropes with both sp2 and sp3 hybridized atoms have greater morphological diversity due to the huge number of combinations and arrangements in networks," says first author Yasumaru Fujii.

To calculate the most stable atomic configuration, as well as estimate its hardness, the team relied on a computational method called density functional theory (DFT). DFT has been successfully used throughout chemistry and solid-state physics to predict the structure and properties of materials. 
Keeping track of the quantum states of all of the electrons in a sample, and especially their interactions, is usually an intractable task. Instead, DFT uses an approximation that focuses on the final density of electrons in space orbiting the atoms.
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“There was more than one way to think about Mike Burry’s purchase of a billion dollars in credit default swaps. The first was as a simple, even innocent, insurance contract. Burry made his semiannual premium payments and, in return, received protection against the default of a billion dollars’ worth of bonds. He’d either be paid zero, if the triple-B-rated bonds he’d insured proved good, or a billion dollars, if those triple-B-rated bonds went bad.

But of course Mike Burry didn’t own any triple-B-rated subprime mortgage bonds, or anything like them. He had no property to “insure” it was as if he had bought fire insurance on some slum with a history of burning down. To him, as to Steve Eisman, a credit default swap wasn’t insurance at all but an outright speculative bet against the market—and this was the second way to think about it.”

Michael Lewis, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.

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