Saturday, 11 July 2020

Special Update 11/07/2020 Covid-19 Surges. Hydroxychloroquine v Remdesivir.


Baltic Dry Index. 1810 unch.  Brent Crude 43.24
Spot Gold 1799

Covid-19 cases 04/07/20 World 11,205,038
Deaths 529,480

Covid-19 cases 11/07/20 World 12,638,393
Deaths 561,543

"The harsh reality is that many patients continue to experience lingering symptoms for weeks and months after being diagnosed with and 'recovering' from COVID-19,"

Dr. Robert Glatter is an emergency medicine physician at Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City, the early epicenter of the U.S. pandemic.

We open this weekend fearing that the USA has totally lost control of its coronavirus crisis. If so, any second half 2020 economic rebound will be very limited and feeble, with bad implications for the US and global service economy of tourism, airlines, cruise lines, hotels and hospitality.

Worse, this is happening in the northern hemisphere summer. Perhaps partly the result of all the rioting and looting. Perhaps partly the result of ending all the lock downs without adequate social distancing and masks.

But whatever the reasons, with 2020 flu season fast approaching for October-November, and a second wave of Covid-19 expected September onwards, (not that we will be able to call it a second wave if the USA doesn’t get control of wave one,) a picture of a very bleak second half economy is rushing into view.

Below, this week’s sad developments.

U.S. sets record for new COVID cases third day in a row at nearly 69,000

July 10, 2020 / 7:33 PM
(Reuters) - New cases of COVID-19 rose by nearly 69,000 across the United States on Friday, according to a Reuters tally, setting a record for the third consecutive day as Walt Disney Co. stuck to its plans to reopen its flagship theme park in hard-hit Florida.

A total of eight U.S. states - Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Montana, Ohio, Utah and Wisconsin - also reached records for single-day infections.

In Texas, another hot zone, Governor Greg Abbott warned on Friday he may have to impose new clampdowns if the state cannot stem its record-setting caseloads and hospitalizations through masks and social distancing.

“If we don’t adopt this best practice it could lead to a shutdown of business,” the Republican governor told local KLBK-TV in Lubbock, adding it was the last thing he wanted.

California announced on Friday the state will release up to 8,000 inmates early from prisons to slow the spread of COVID-19 inside the facilities. At San Quentin State Prison, outside San Francisco, half of the facility’s roughly 3,300 prisoners have tested positive for the virus.

The Walt Disney Co. (DIS.N) said the theme parks in Orlando would open on Saturday to a limited number of guests who along with employees would be required to wear masks and undergo temperature checks. The park also cancelled parades, firework displays and events that typically draw crowds.

---- Roughly 19,000 people, including some theme park workers, have signed a petition asking Disney to delay the reopening. The union representing 750 Walt Disney World performers has filed a grievance against the company, claiming retaliation against members over a union demand that they be tested for COVID-19.

Other theme parks opened in Orlando in June, including Comcast Corp’s Universal Studios Orlando and SeaWorld Entertainment Inc’s SeaWorld.

Florida remains one of the worst hotspots for the virus in the nation and is among a handful of states where deaths are rising, based on a Reuters analysis of fatalities in the last two weeks, compared with the prior two weeks.

---- This month, Florida has repeatedly reported more new daily coronavirus cases than any European country had at the height of their outbreaks. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a Republican, angered some residents and medical experts by calling the spike a “blip.”

On Friday, DeSantis said that the state would receive more than 17,000 vials of the antiviral drug remdesivir from the U.S. government, adding: “That’ll be something that will hopefully help to improve patient outcomes.”
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Gov. Greg Abbott warns if spread of COVID-19 doesn’t slow, “the next step would have to be a lockdown”

Abbott has repeated that warning multiple times in local television interviews this week.

With Texas continuing to break records for new coronavirus deaths and hospitalizations this week, Gov. Greg Abbott reiterated Friday afternoon that things will continue to get worse. And if people keep flouting his new statewide mask mandate, he said, the next step could be another economic lockdown.

“Things will get worse, and let me explain why,” he told KLBK TV in Lubbock. “The deaths that we’re seeing announced today and yesterday — which are now over 100 — those are people who likely contracted COVID-19 in late May.

“The worst is yet to come as we work our way through that massive increase in people testing positive.”

Texans will also likely see an increase in cases next week, Abbott said, and people abiding by his face mask requirement might be the only thing standing between businesses remaining open and another shutdown.

“The public needs to understand this was a very tough decision for me to make,” Abbott told KLBK of his face mask mandate. “I made clear that I made this tough decision for one reason: It was our last best effort to slow the spread of COVID-19. If we do not slow the spread of COVID-19 … the next step would have to be a lockdown.”

Abbott has pushed that message repeatedly in television interviews this week. But he emphasized Friday that another shutdown was not imminent and he pointed to steps he has taken so far to scale back reopening in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus, including the mask order and a requirement that bars, once again, close their doors. He has also tightened restaurant capacity limits.

Texas reported 100 more coronavirus deaths on Thursday, another record.

COVID-19 symptoms persist for weeks after hospital discharge for most survivors

July 10, 2020 / 2:31 PM
Even a month after hospital discharge and "recovery," a majority of patients who had survived severe COVID-19 were still dealing with fatigue, shortness of breath and other symptoms, Italian research shows.

The study tracked outcomes for 143 hospitalized patients treated in April in Rome, at the height of the Italian COVID-19 pandemic.

They'd spent an average of about two weeks under hospital care, and one-fifth had required some form of respiratory support, said a team led by Dr. Angelo Carfi, of the Policlinic Foundation University Agostino Gemelli, in Rome.

Assessed an average of five weeks after discharge, few of these survivors could say that their lives and health had returned to normal. In fact, "87.4 percent reported persistence of at least one symptom," most typically fatigue (53 percent of patients) or a troubling shortness of breath (43 percent).

UK economy to slump over 10%, debts to surge: Moody's

July 10, 2020 / 10:20 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain will suffer the sharpest peak-to-trough economic slump of any major economy this year, rating agency Moody’s warned on Friday, and the coronavirus crisis will push up national debt as a share of GDP by nearly a quarter.

Moody’s said the UK government’s latest 30 billion pound ($37.9 billion) stimulus package, announced this week, would aid a gradual economic recovery but add further pressure to the UK’s fiscal position.

“The UK’s public debt ratio will likely rise by 24 percentage points of GDP or more relative to 2019 levels,” a group of Moody’s analysts wrote in a note, taking the debt to 109% of GDP this year.

“We forecast a contraction of 10.1% in the UK’s GDP for this year, but expect a gradual subsequent recovery on the back of the easing in lockdown measures, with growth rebounding to 7.1% next year.”

Moody’s rates Britain Aa2 with a negative outlook following a series of cuts since the country voted to leave the European Union in mid-2016.

Later on Friday, Fitch, another ratings agency, said it now expected Britain’s economy to shrink by 9% this year, a bigger hit than its previous projection of a 7.8% contraction, and the budget deficit would leap to as much as 17% of economic output.

Fitch said the government’s 30 billion pound stimulus package would probably only cost 21 billion pounds - largely because millions of furloughed workers were likely to be sacked later this year, rather than their employers taking a 1,000 pound government grant to reinstate them.
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Up next, the economic reality as seen in Germany.

“The Virus Must Be Contained Before the Economy Can Recover”

In an interview, Clemens Fuest, one of Germany’s top economists, discusses the impact of the coronavirus on governments and business. He says bankruptcies are inevitable and that the effects of the crisis will be with us for a long time to come.
Interview Conducted by Martin Hesse und Michael Sauga

DER SPIEGEL: Mr. Fuest, in recent months, the state has intervened in everyday life and in the economy in an unprecedented way - with rules on the public’s behavior, economic stimulus programs and subsidies. Was it all necessary?

Fuest: By and large, the government has acted correctly, both in the fight against the coronavirus and in terms of economic policy. In a crisis like this, the markets don’t function properly, so the state should intervene. However, it is equally important that politicians find a way out of the emergency measures once the acute crisis passes. We have to be careful and make sure that we do not fall into a state-controlled economy.

DER SPIEGEL: Do you see that danger?

Fuest: Yes. I think there is too much talk about public spending and too little about the necessary freedom for the private sector. Our prosperity isn’t generated by the state, but by entrepreneurs and workers. Things won’t be as smooth this time as they were after the financial crisis, when the economy quickly regained momentum.

DER SPIEGEL: When the virus began spreading, the government froze large parts of the economy. Was the lockdown excessive?

Fuest: No. Experience from previous pandemics like the Spanish flu suggest that the economic damage will be smaller if the disease is fought with determination. As long as the spread of the virus continues, people reduce their economic activities on their own. They consume and produce less because they are afraid of infection. The virus must be contained before the economy can recover. The contradiction between health and economic interests, which has been frequently discussed in the corona crisis, doesn’t really exist.

DER SPIEGEL: Nevertheless, many companies have accumulated gigantic losses and now have to be rescued by the state, through loans or direct equity investments. Are we facing a kind of corona socialism?

Fuest: I hope not. It may be right for the state to take a stake in certain companies to save them from bankruptcy. But the government should then also impose conditions - that companies temporarily can’t pay out dividends, for example. It would be wrong for the state to interfere in operational business.
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Next, yet another easy come, easy go banking scandal. Why am I not surprised that the auditor was E&Y?

What's in a name? Banks count cost of loans in NMC collapse

July 10, 2020 / 7:11 AM
DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - As the crisis engulfing his business empire deepened, Bavaguthu Raghuram Shetty met with Bank of Baroda officials in mid-March to discuss the $250 million (£198.57 million) he and his firms owed.

The loans were granted on the strength of Shetty’s reputation as a billionaire and his businesses, in particular, NMC Health, the Middle East-focused hospital group he made his fortune from, according to court filings.

Borrowing on the basis of reputation, known as “name lending”, and taking on a large exposure to one person or entity is not unusual in the Gulf region despite previous episodes going badly wrong, bankers and analysts told Reuters.

Shetty, an Abu Dhabi-based Indian entrepreneur, was feted as the Gulf’s ultimate immigrant success story and NMC Health, the United Arab Emirates’ largest private hospital group, borrowed without having to provide collateral from dozens of banks either headquartered or with bases in the region.

NMC’s implosion this year amid allegations of fraud and the disclosure of more than $4 billion in hidden debts has left some UAE banks and overseas lenders nursing heavy losses and prompted legal battles to try and recover money owed.

---- NMC was put into administration in April and Alvarez & Marsal, its administrators, said in late May that they were conducting an investigation of its borrowings and suspected fraud across multiple jurisdictions. The administrators declined to comment further.

---- UK’s Financial Conduct Authority told NMC in late February that it has commenced a formal enforcement investigation against the company, formerly a member of Britain’s prestigious FTSE 100 index, while the UK’s accounting regulator has opened an investigation into EY’s audit of NMC Health.

EY has said it will cooperate with the review and declined further comment.

NMC’s financial irregularities came to light when short-seller Muddy Waters questioned its financial statement late last year. NMC initially said that Muddy Waters’ report was “false and misleading”.

“We thought they understated their debt by at least several hundred million dollars, and that cash balances were overstated. But 4 billion dollars of undisclosed debt, nobody can find a rug big enough to cover that up, and that’s why it went the way it went,” said Muddy Waters’ founder Carson Block.

In Covid-19 news, will there ever be light at the end of the tunnel? Well, perhaps, but don’t take any unnecessary chances. Having an air filter that operates at 200C, 392F, generates its own complications and hazards.

“Catch and Kill” Air Filter Kills Coronavirus

A research team at the University of Houston (UH) collaborated with their colleagues to design a “catch and kill” air filter that has the ability to trap the virus that causes COVID-19 and kills it immediately.

Zhifeng Ren, who is the director of the Texas Center for Superconductivity at UH, worked with Monzer Hourani, CEO of Medistar—a Houston-based medical real estate development firm—and other scientists to develop the filter, which has been reported in a paper recently published in Materials Today Physics.

According to the team, virus tests carried out at the Galveston National Laboratory identified 99.8% of the novel SARS-CoV-2, the virus that is responsible for causing COVID-19, was destroyed in a single pass via a filter created from commercially available nickel foam that was heated to 200 °C, or around 392 °F.

It also killed 99.9% of the anthrax spores during tests performed at the national lab, which is operated by the University of Texas Medical Branch.

This filter could be useful in airports and in airplanes, in office buildings, schools and cruise ships to stop the spread of COVID-19. Its ability to help control the spread of the virus could be very useful for society.
Zhifeng Ren, MD, Study Co-Corresponding Author and Anderson Chair Professor of Physics, University of Houston

According to Ren, the executives of Medistar are also developing a desktop model that can purify the air in an office worker’s closest surroundings.

The team was aware of the fact that the virus can stay in the air for around three hours, implying a filter that could eliminate it rapidly was a practical plan. Since the businesses are about to reopen, it was crucial to control the spread of the virus in air-conditioned spaces.

Furthermore, Medistar knew the virus is not capable of surviving temperatures above 70 °C, and around 158 °F. Therefore, the team decided to use a heated filter. Since the filter temperature was far hotter—around 200 °C—they could kill the virus almost immediately.

Ren recommended the use of nickel foam as it satisfied various essential needs: it is flexible, enables airflow, and is porous and electrically conductive, making it easy to heat.

However, nickel foam has low resistivity, making it harder to increase it to a sufficient temperature that would rapidly kill the virus. The team resolved that issue by folding the foam and linking several compartments with electrical wires to raise the resistance and increase the temperature to as high as 250 °C.
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Research is coalescing around the idea that coronavirus antibodies may last just a few months

awoodward@businessinsider.com (Aylin Woodward)
July 9, 2020
·         We don't know how long coronavirus antibodies last.
·         Recent research from Spain suggests they may disappear in some patients in a matter of weeks.
·         Other studies suggest antibodies last a few months.
·         Here's what we do know so far about the life span of coronavirus antibodies and what it means for immunity and potential vaccines.

Among the many lingering questions about the coronavirus, one of the most crucial is: How long do antibodies last?

With some diseases, like measles and hepatitis A, infection is a one-and-done deal. Once you get sick and recover, you're immune for life.

"For human coronaviruses, that's not the case," Florian Krammer, a vaccinologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, told Business Insider. "You can get repeatedly infected once your immunity goes down."

Increasingly, research is starting to coalesce around an unfortunate picture of COVID-19 immunity: People who develop antibodies might not keep them for very long.

Last month, a study showed that antibodies may last only two to three months. Then research published Monday suggested that antibodies could last only three to five weeks in some patients.

Such findings have implications for vaccine development, since the efficacy of a vaccine hinges on the idea that a dose of weakened or dead virus can prompt your body to generate antibodies that protect you from future infection. If those antibodies are fleeting, a vaccine's protection would be fleeting too.

Short-lived antibodies also diminish hopes of achieving widespread or permanent herd immunity.

In the great Covid -19 drug fight, who are you going to believe? Self serving statements from Gilead promoting remdesivir, or peer revived research from the Henry Ford Healthcare System in Detroit? Remdesivir is supposedly going to cost 4,200 a dose. 

Hydroxychloroquine costs a little over a dollar a pill. Money wouldn’t be behind the relentless attack on hydroxychloroquine would it?

Gilead says remdesivir reduced risk of death in COVID-19 patients, more studies needed

July 10, 2020 / 1:56 PM
(Reuters) - Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD.O) said on Friday additional data from a late-stage study showed its antiviral remdesivir reduced the risk of death and significantly improved the conditions of severely ill COVID-19 patients.

The company, which had initially released the data from the trial in April, said the finding requires confirmation in clinical trials.

Remdesivir has been at the forefront of the battle against COVID-19 after the intravenously administered medicine helped shorten hospital recovery times in a clinical trial.

Several countries have approved the use of the treatment in severe patients but there are concerns over supply of the drug, which is also being tested as an inhaled version.

Gilead said it analyzed data from 312 patients treated in a late-stage study and a separate real-world retrospective cohort of 818 patients with similar characteristics and disease severity as in the study.

---- Dr. Susan Olender from Columbia University Irving Medical Center said in the Gilead statement that the analysis draws from a real-world setting and serves as an important adjunct to clinical trial data even as it is not as vigorous as a randomized controlled trial.

---- Gilead also said the rates and likelihood of recovery were lower in patients who received hydroxychloroquine as well as remdesivir compared with patients treated with remdesivir who did not receive hydroxychloroquine.

Gilead’s shares rose 2% to $76.21 in early trading.

Treatment with Hydroxychloroquine Cut Death Rate Significantly in COVID-19 Patients, Henry Ford Health System Study Shows

July 02, 2020
DETROIT – Treatment with hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly in sick patients hospitalized with COVID-19 – and without heart-related side-effects, according to a new study published by Henry Ford Health System.

In a large-scale retrospective analysis of 2,541 patients hospitalized between March 10 and May 2, 2020 across the system’s six hospitals, the study found 13% of those treated with hydroxychloroquine alone died compared to 26.4% not treated with hydroxychloroquine. None of the patients had documented serious heart abnormalities; however, patients were monitored for a heart condition routinely pointed to as a reason to avoid the drug as a treatment for COVID-19.

The study was published today in the International Journal of Infectious Diseases, the peer-reviewed, open-access online publication of the International Society of Infectious Diseases (ISID.org).

Patients treated with hydroxychloroquine at Henry Ford met specific protocol criteria as outlined by the hospital system’s Division of Infectious Diseases. The vast majority received the drug soon after admission; 82% within 24 hours and 91% within 48 hours of admission. All patients in the study were 18 or over with a median age of 64 years; 51% were men and 56% African American.

“The findings have been highly analyzed and peer-reviewed,” said Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of Infectious Disease for Henry Ford Health System, who co-authored the study with Henry Ford epidemiologist Samia Arshad. “We attribute our findings that differ from other studies to early treatment, and part of a combination of interventions that were done in supportive care of patients, including careful cardiac monitoring. Our dosing also differed from other studies not showing a benefit of the drug. And other studies are either not peer reviewed, have limited numbers of patients, different patient populations or other differences from our patients.”

Zervos said the potential for a surge in the fall or sooner, and infections continuing worldwide, show an urgency to identifying inexpensive and effective therapies and preventions.

“We’re glad to add to the scientific knowledge base on the role and how best to use therapies as we work around the world to provide insight,” he said. “Considered in the context of current studies on the use of hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19, our results suggest that the drug may have an important role to play in reducing COVID-19 mortality.”

----“Our analysis shows that using hydroxychloroquine helped saves lives,” said neurosurgeon Dr. Steven Kalkanis, CEO, Henry Ford Medical Group and Senior Vice President and Chief Academic Officer of Henry Ford Health System. “As doctors and scientists, we look to the data for insight. And the data here is clear that there was benefit to using the drug as a treatment for sick, hospitalized patients.”
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Some useful Covid links.

Johns Hopkins Coronavirus resource centre

Rt Covid-19

Covid19info.live

This weekend’s musical diversion.  Dresden’s very under appreciated Johann David Heinichen.  Often ill from TB, he died early and became largely forgotten, until relatively recently.

(Last weekend’s musical diversion I suspect is misattributed. I suspect it was actually by Vivaldi himself, but what do I know? I only know how to recognize stock bubbles and an impending, fiat money, calamity. Just don’t tell any central banksters!)

Heinichen Dresden Concerto in F Seibel 233


Whenever you are asked if you can do a job, tell ‘em, “Certainly I can!” Then get busy and find out how to do it.

Theodore Roosevelt.

The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June

 DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196 Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.

The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now gone negative.

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