Baltic Dry Index. 1710 +11 Brent Crude 43.14
Spot Gold 1810
“The world is a place that’s gone from being flat to round to
crooked.”
Mad Magazine.
We open for the weekend with
the Washington Post, and others, positing that the US “recovery” may already be
ending. Just don’t let on to the crazed gamblers in the stock casinos.
Global central banksters may
have poured in 15 trillion US dollars (equivalent) of new fiat money created
out of thin air, but little of it reached real people in everyday life, in the
real economy.
Next, a rising tide of layoffs,
bankruptcies, evictions, and poverty?
“I
think we agree, the past is over.”
President
George W. Bush.
After the fastest recession in U.S. history, the economic recovery may be fizzling
July 13, 2020 at 4:19 p.m. GMT+1
United Airlines announced plans to lay off more than
one-third of its 95,000 workers. Brooks Brothers, which first opened for
business in 1818, filed for bankruptcy. And Bed Bath and Beyond said it will
close 200 stores.
Welcome to the recovery.
If there were still hopes of a “V-shaped” comeback from the
novel coronavirus shutdown, this past week should have put an end
to them. The pandemic shock, which economists once assumed would be only a
temporary business interruption, appears instead to be settling into a
traditional, self-perpetuating recession.
But without a uniform federal strategy, many governors rushed to reopen their economies before bringing the virus under control. Now states such as Florida, California, Texas and Arizona are setting daily records for coronavirus cases and more than 70 percent of the country has either paused or reversed reopening plans, according to Goldman Sachs.
After
two surprisingly strong months, the economy could begin shedding jobs again
this month and in August, Morgan Stanley warned Friday. Many small businesses
that received forgivable government loans have exhausted their funds while some
larger companies are starting to thin their payrolls in preparation for a
longer-than-expected downturn.
More
Next, China starts playing hardball
over Hong Kong and Taiwan. Will President Trump respond or play rollover? With a re-election just three and a half months away, rollover is
out of the question.
Hong Kong demands Taiwan officials sign 'one China' document for visa renewal - source
July 17, 2020 / 9:06 AM
TAIPEI
(Reuters) - Taiwan officials in Hong Kong have been told their visas will not
be renewed if they don’t sign a document supporting Beijing’s claim to Taiwan
under its “one China” policy, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told
Reuters.
The move
comes after Taipei strongly criticised a new security law imposed on Hong Kong
by Beijing, and opened an office in Taipei this month to help people who may
want to leave the Asian financial hub.
Several
Taiwanese officials at its de facto Hong Kong consulate who were due to renew
their visas have been asked by the city’s government to sign the document, a
senior Taiwan official with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
The official
said the move was unprecedented and presented an “unnecessary political
obstacle” for Taipei-Hong Kong ties.
---- The Hong Kong Immigration Department did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Taiwan’s
China policy-making Mainland Affairs Council urged Hong Kong to return to
“existing consensus” to maintain normal exchanges between Taiwan and Hong Kong.
---- Taiwan has 15 Taiwanese staff at its de facto consulate in the city, another person with knowledge of the matter said.
China sees
Taiwan as part of “one China” and has never renounced the use of force to bring
the island under its control.
---- The
source declined to say exactly how many Taiwan officials were asked to sign the
paper but said its acting chief, Kao Ming-tsun, had returned to the island late
on Thursday after he refused to sign the document upon his visa renewal.
More
How hot could US-China 'Cold War' get?
Issued on:
Tensions are
mounting by the day between the United States and China, leading to talk of a
new Cold War. Experts see important historical differences -- but believe the
two powers are entering dangerous territory.
US President
Donald Trump's administration has increasingly gone global against China,
pushing other nations to reject its strings-attached aid and telecom titan
Huawei, and siding unreservedly with Beijing's rivals in the dispute-rife South
China Sea.
Trump has
made China a major campaign issue as he heads into the November election, but
the relationship looks unlikely to change in more than tone if he loses to Joe
Biden, who has accused the president of not being tough enough.
Stephen
Walt, a professor of international affairs at Harvard University, said the
world's two largest economic powers were engaged in a long-term competition
over "incompatible strategic visions," including China's desire to
dominate Asia.
China sees
Trump as a "weak and error-prone leader" and likely believes the
"disastrous" US response to the coronavirus pandemic presented
opportunities to press its advantage, he said.
"It
resembles the US-Soviet 'Cold War' in certain respects, but it is not yet as
dangerous as that earlier rivalry," Walt said.
"One
key difference is that the two states are still closely connected economically,
although that relationship is now under considerable strain."
US Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo, who is taking stern warnings about Beijing around the
world, did not reject the Cold War comparison in a recent radio interview.
He also
noted that the United States was never as economically intertwined with the
Soviet Union --and said the West therefore needed to separate from China,
especially its technology, which Washington fears will be used for espionage.
More
Up next, fraud news. It’s only
the tip of the iceberg, I suspect as our new and growing global recession
unfolds.
Burnt Banks Claim Fraud, Fabrications in Asian Oil-Trading Web
By Serene Cheong and Alfred CangThe troubled transactions, outlined in court documents, offer the clearest look yet at some of the deals at the heart of a web of scandals in the Asian energy-trading hub that have already caused more than $9 billion in potential losses for global lenders.
The Singapore units of CIMB Bank Bhd. and Natixis SA claim to be victims in separate cases filed in the High Court of Singapore. Their accusations span four separate oil deals, but involve the same players:
- Hontop Energy (Singapore) Pte. Ltd., the oil trading unit of conglomerate China Wanda Group that’s now in receivership. CIMB is suing to put the trader under judicial management and is seeking $105 million from it and its parent, saying there is evidence of serious fraud and misconduct by its management.
- Singapore’s Sugih Energy International Pte. Ltd., which has since renamed itself as Aeturnum Energy International Pte Ltd. Natixis is suing the trader in two separate cases seeking a combined $86 million and/or the surrender of relevant documents, accusing it of false and fraudulently made representations.
- Oil major BP Plc, who isn’t being accused of wrongdoing by either bank.
More
Finally,
that still growing coronavirus crisis. Even the magic vaccine ending is
starting to look like too little too late.
Coronavirus surge, renewed lockdowns fan fresh worries about global fuel demand
July 17,
2020 / 6:26 AM
LONDON/NEW
YORK (Reuters) - Surges in coronavirus infections are slowing a recovery in
fuel use from the doldrums of lockdowns in the United States and other
countries, raising concern it could be years before consumption rebounds from
the impact of the pandemic.
Global fuel
demand fell by around a quarter at the peak of the lockdowns, when over 4
billion people worldwide were asked to stay at home. The unprecedented decline
in demand forced producers to make record output cuts and pump hundreds of
millions of barrels of oil into storage.
Fuel
consumption and oil prices had recovered some ground as governments relaxed
restrictions on population movements and the output cuts stemmed the glut.
That
recovery is stalling, however, as infections swing upward in top fuel consumer
the United States, as well as in other major economies such as Brazil and
India.
In the week
ended July 11, U.S. retail gasoline demand fell 5% from the previous week,
according to GasBuddy, which tracks real-time retail gasoline purchases, after
several states reimposed restrictions to control outbreaks of COVID-19. Demand
also fell the week before, the first time since lockdowns began in March that
it dropped for two straight weeks.
“Normally
this two-week period would have been the peak demand period and we didn’t get
it,” said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. “The recovery has
been unwinding.”
The surge in
U.S. virus cases is happening in some of the most populous states including
California, Texas and Florida, which account for more than one-quarter of U.S.
gasoline consumption.
U.S.
gasoline demand pre-pandemic was around 9 million barrels per day (bpd), or
around 9% of global oil supply, according to U.S. government data.
Driving in
major U.S. cities with rising infection rates dropped in July, including in Los
Angeles, Phoenix, and Miami, according to Dutch location technology company
TomTom.
Traffic in
Houston, Texas, had recovered in early June, but it has now dropped to where it
was at the depth of the lockdown in April, TomTom showed.
More
U.S. divided over masks, schools as coronavirus cases rise by over 70,000 again
July 17, 2020 / 2:07 PM
(Reuters)
- Americans debated mask mandates and the reopening of schools during the
coronavirus pandemic on Friday as state and local officials imposed conflicting
orders and cases rose by more than 70,000 across the nation for the second day
in a row.
The United
States recorded a total of at least 70,674 new COVID-19 infections on Friday
after climbing by a record 77,499 a day earlier, the largest increase posted by
any country since the pandemic started, according to a Reuters tally.
U.S. deaths
on Friday rose by at least 912, the fourth day in a row that fatalities have
exceeded 900 a day.
In the state of Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp sued Atlanta’s mayor to prevent her from mandating masks.
Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot announced a plan to offer both in-person and remote instruction at the nation’s third-largest school district, over the objection of the teachers’ union, which wants remote learning only.
Americans have become divided along political lines over mask orders, with conservatives more likely than liberals to call the rules a violation of their Constitutional rights.
“Everybody saying that (wearing a mask) is a violation of their freedom - no, it’s not. Because a seatbelt is mandated and that’s to save your life,” said Sharon Taylor, 48, a cardiothoracic nurse in Atlanta.
With school set to resume in a few weeks, local officials across the country have announced a variety of plans to resume teaching.
California Governor Gavin Newsom, who until now has allowed school districts in the nation’s most populous state to set their own policies, said on Friday schools could reopen only in counties that for 14 days have stayed off a worsening trends watch list.
As of
Friday, 30 of the state’s 58 counties were on the list and schools there must
remain closed. Among them are Los Angeles, Sacramento and San Diego counties,
accounting for nearly 40% of the state’s population.
The United
States has been averaging about 60,000 cases a day in July with cases rising in
41 states on Friday, based on a Reuters analysis. Texas and Arkansas reported a
record number of deaths on Friday, while Kansas, Ohio, North Dakota and Puerto
Rico reported record numbers of infections.
More
Mexico reports 7,257 new cases of coronavirus, 736 more deaths
July 18, 2020 / 1:42 AM
MEXICO CITY
(Reuters) - Mexico’s Health Ministry on Friday reported 7,257 new confirmed
coronavirus infections and 736 additional fatalities, bringing the total in the
country to 331,298 cases and 38,310 deaths.
The
government has said the real number of infected people is likely significantly
higher than the confirmed cases.
But ….
Scientists identify six different types of coronavirus with increasing severity levels
Henry Bodkin, The Telegraph•
Six distinct types of coronavirus have been identified by
scientists in a breakthrough that promises to save lives by flagging the
highest-risk patients.Analysis of thousands of cases by artificial intelligence software has revealed different "clusters" of symptoms and ranked them in order of severity.
Headache and loss of smell are common to all six groupings, but the range of symptoms varies widely after that.
Scientists at King's College London (KCL) found that patients with the sixth type of Covid-19 are nearly 10 times more likely to end up needing breathing support than patients in the first group.
This is significant because often patients only deteriorate to a critical stage several days after after showing symptoms. The new ranking system should flag up the highest-risk cases and give doctors the opportunity to intervene earlier.
The findings, derived from KCL's symptom tracker app, used data from 1,600 users in the UK and US who have had confirmed Covid-19. The resulting algorithm was then tested on an independent cohort of 1,000 users in the UK, the US and Sweden.
"These findings have important implications for care and monitoring of people who are most vulnerable to severe Covid-19," said Dr Claire Steves from KCL.
"If you can predict who these people are at day five, you have time to give them support and early interventions such as monitoring blood oxygen and sugar levels, and ensuring they are properly hydrated – simple care that could be given at home, preventing hospitalisations and saving lives."
The least severe categories of the virus were characterised by flu-like symptoms, either with or without fever.
Gastrointestinal problems, such as diarrhoea, dominate the
third category, whereas fatigue, confusion and ultimately respiratory problems
are associated with the increasingly severe fourth, fifth and sixth categories.
More
UK may already have enough herd immunity to prevent second coronavirus wave, study says
Scientists say many people may already be immune to
Covid-19 without ever having caught it
The UK may have already achieved a sufficient level of herd immunity to stop a second wave of coronavirus, an Oxford University study has suggested.
Scientists believe the "threshold" of herd immunity may have been lowered because many people may already be immune to the disease without ever having caught it.
According to a new model produced by an Oxford University team led by Professor Sunetra Gupta, as little as 20 per cent of the population may need to be resistant to the virus in order to prevent a new epidemic spreading.
"It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50 per cent for any epidemiological setting," the study says.
"Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses.
----Leading experts have already suggested that a sizeable number of people may have immunity against coronavirus because of its similarity to viruses including the common cold.
The Oxford model, which has not yet been peer-reviewed, suggests that when resistant people mix with non-resistant people, the herd immunity "threshold" drops sharply.
Read the full study here
"Given the mounting evidence that exposure to seasonal coronaviruses offers protection against clinical symptoms, it would be reasonable to assume that exposure to SARS-CoV-2 itself would confer a significant degree of clinical immunity," the study says.
-----"There is probably background T-cell immunity in people before they see the coronavirus, and that may be relevant that many people get a pretty asymptomatic disease," he said.
Llamas—Yes, Llamas—Could Help Us Fight Covid-19
These creatures have evolved special
"nanobodies" that may have an edge over human antibodies when it comes
to developing a new treatment.
07.15.2020 07:00 AM
Millions of years ago, some unknown common ancestor of today’s llamas, camels, and alpacas underwent an unusual genetic mutation. This evolutionary happenstance gave llamas and their kin a strange type of antibody that no other mammals have—which, surprisingly, could end up aiding in the fight against Covid-19. On Monday, in the journal Nature Structural & Molecular Biology, researchers from the Rosalind Franklin Institute and the University of Oxford reported the discovery of two llama antibodies, also called nanobodies, that could prevent the virus that causes Covid-19 from infecting human cells.
“These [nanobodies] can block—do block quite potently—the interaction between the virus and the human cell,” says Ray Owens, a professor of molecular biology at the University of Oxford and one of the study’s senior authors. “They basically neutralize the virus.”
Like all antibodies, the nanobodies that Owens and his team developed have the ability to recognize and attach to a specific spot on a specific protein—in this case, the so-called spike proteins that cover the surface of the novel coronavirus. When these spikes latch onto ACE2, a protein that sits on the outside of many human cells, the coronavirus can enter and infect those cells. If, however, the spike proteins are blocked from attaching to ACE2, the virus will float around harmlessly, unable to invade.
More
Some useful Covid links.
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus
resource centre
Rt Covid-19
Covid19info.live
Graupner - Concerto a 2 corni e timpani, 2 violini, viola e cembalo in G GWV 332
Christoph Graupner
---- Graupner inadvertently played a key role in the history of music. Precarious finances in Darmstadt during the 1710s forced a reduction of musical life. The opera house was closed, and many court musicians' salaries were in arrears (including Graupner's). After many attempts to have his salary paid, and having several children and a wife to support, in 1723 Graupner applied for the Cantorate in Leipzig. Telemann had been the first choice for this position, but withdrew after securing a salary increase in Hamburg. Graupner's "audition" Magnificat, set in the style of his teacher, mentor and predecessor, Kuhnau, secured him the position. However, Graupner's patron (the Landgrave Ernst Ludwig of Hesse-Darmstadt) would not release him from his contract. Graupner's past due salary was paid in full, his salary was increased; and he would be kept on staff even if his Kapelle was dismissed. With such favorable terms, Graupner remained in Darmstadt, thus clearing the way for Bach to become the kantor in Leipzig.
After hearing that Bach was the choice for Leipzig, on 4 May 1723 Graupner graciously wrote to the city council in Leipzig assuring them that Bach "is a musician just as strong on the organ as he is expert in church works and capelle pieces" and a man who "will honestly and properly perform the functions entrusted to him."[1]
Why did I take up stealing? To live better, to own things I couldn't afford, to acquire this good taste that you now enjoy and which I should be very reluctant to give up.
Cary Grant. To Catch A Thief.
The Monthly Coppock Indicators finished June
DJIA: 25,813 -2 Down. NASDAQ: 10,059 +196
Up. SP500: 3,100 +75 Down.
The NASDAQ has remained up. The S&P and the DJIA still remain down
despite the best efforts of the Fed to get them to go higher. The Dow has now
gone negative.
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