Baltic Dry Index. 415 -15 Brent Crude 54.47 Spot Gold 1570
Brexit now in effect.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases 7/2/20 China 34,927 Deaths 725 (Maybe.)
“When my information
changes, I alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?”
Coronavirus, just how great will the
global impact be? No one knows of course, but its impact is already massive and
growing. This is not a time to be financially, or health wise reckless. Prudent
conservatism is back in fashion.
The Baltic Dry Index suggests a new
recession is at hand, no matter how much newly created out of thin air fiat money,
central banksters attempt to toss in to a rapidly closing down global economy.
In a pandemic, surviving is everything, buying an extra Beamer, or Burberry, or
ocean prison ship cruise, less so.
The next few weeks will be critical, in
every sense. If central banksters want to pretend it’s still business as usual,
it’s time to sell out to them, and sell them the Brooklyn Bridge as well.
Probably another rare Sunday update
tomorrow.
Global stocks fall on fears China virus to slow growth, gold gains
February 7, 2020 / 1:35 AM
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Global equity markets
and government debt yields slumped on Friday as nagging concerns about the
impact of the coronavirus on global growth overshadowed a strong U.S. jobs
report that indicated an economy on pace to grow moderately.
Stocks on
Wall Street retreated from record highs and safe-havens gold and the Japanese
yen rose as investors weighed how much the virus is likely to disrupt supply
chains. China accounts for about one-third of global growth.
The
better-than-expected U.S. labor report failed to move the market as often
occurs. Caution about the virus, which has inflicted 31,211 people and left 637
dead, dictated investor sentiment.
Nonfarm
payrolls increased by 225,000 jobs in January, with employment at construction
sites increasing by the most in a year amid milder-than-normal temperatures,
the Labor Department said.
“Investors
should be watching the effect of the coronavirus on the global supply chain and
thus, on the global economy and corporate profits,” said John Vail, chief
global strategist at Nikko Asset Management.
While the
amount and duration of the effect remains unknown, there is a chance the Phase
1 U.S.-China trade deal will be severely hampered and bilateral relations
worsen again, he said.
Global
supply chains have grown far more integrated, so disruptions from China have
bigger ripple effects around the world, said Ron Temple, head of U.S. equity at
Lazard Asset Management in New York.
More
New cases of coronavirus infections rise in China after two-day decline
February 8, 2020 / 12:39 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - The number of new
confirmed infections from a coronavirus in mainland China rose on Friday after
falling for two consecutive days, while the number of deaths from the outbreak
once again hit a daily record, pushing the death toll past 700.
Across
mainland China, there were 3,399 new confirmed infections on Friday, bringing
the total accumulated number so far to 34,546, the country’s National Health
Commission said on Saturday.
The death
toll had reached 722 as of the end of Friday, up by 86 from the previous day.
Central
Hubei province, the epicenter of the outbreak, reported 81 deaths, while in the
provincial capital of Wuhan 67 people died.
In mainland
China, excluding the 2,050 people who had recovered and the 722 who had died,
the total number of outstanding cases stood at 31,774.
Lockheed Martin drops out of Singapore Airshow over coronavirus concerns
February 8, 2020 / 12:09 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. weapons maker Lockheed Martin Corp said on Friday it will not
participate in next week’s Singapore Airshow over coronavirus concerns.
“Following
the Singapore Ministry of Health’s Feb. 7 declaration of a Code Orange health
alert, we consulted with the U.S. government and our medical teams and decided
not to participate in the Singapore Airshow,” the company said in a statement.
“We
determined this was in the best interest of our employees and aligned with the
U.S. Department of Defense’s decision to reduce its presence,” it said.
Four people on Royal Caribbean cruise ship hospitalized after ship docks in Bayonne
The Royal Caribbean cruise ship on which dozens of people were screened for coronavirus docked in New Jersey on Friday morning — and four passengers were rushed to Newark’s University Hospital “out of caution,” officials said.A brief clip tweeted by NBC 4 New York reporter Tracie Strahan shows two people being removed from the Royal Caribbean Anthem of the Seas and loaded onto waiting ambulances at the Cape Liberty Cruise Port in Bayonne.
One of the four travelers who had come from China for the Caribbean cruise — and are now hospitalized — had a fever on the cruise, Bayonne Mayor Jimmy Davis told NBC New York.
The fever went away with Tylenol, he said.
Three others are under observation at the hospital, which has negative-pressure isolation rooms, according to Davis.
No one
aboard the ship is believed to have coronavirus, but the Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention and health officials removed 23 other Chinese nationals
after the ship docked, NBC reported.
Those
passengers will be taken to Newark Liberty International Airport for a flight
back to China, according to the report.
None of the
27 people are from Wuhan — where the virus first appeared — or had traveled
there since the start of the outbreak, the outlet reported.
In a
statement early Friday, Royal Caribbean said it is “participating in elevated
levels of guest screening” to combat the spread of the virus.
China to delay release of January trade data
By MarketWatch
Published: Feb 7, 2020 3:52 a.m. ET
BEIJING--China's
customs bureau said Friday that it would delay the release of January's trade
data and combine them with February's figures.
The General
Administration of Customs said the delay was to make the data release in line
with that of the National Bureau of Statistics, which publishes other economic
data such as industrial output, investment and retail sales.
The
announcement of delay was made the day that January trade data was originally
scheduled to be released. The customs bureau said it would combine data for the
first two months from this year.
China's
statistics bureau decided to combine the release of some but not all economic
data for the first two months of the year in order to iron out activity
disruptions caused by the Lunar New Year, which falls in different months each
year.
Chinese
exports likely fell 4.8% on year in January, while imports may have dropped
6.5%, according to the median forecasts of 14 economists polled by The Wall
Street Journal.
Both exports
and imports recorded on-year increases in December amid easing trade tensions
between the U.S. and China. The economists also predict the trade surplus to
stand at $40 billion.
Global automaker supplies threatened by China coronavirus crisis
February 6, 2020 / 3:55 PM
DETROIT (Reuters) - The threat from the coronavirus crisis
closed in on the global auto industry on Thursday, as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles
NV warned that a European plant could shut down within two to four weeks if
Chinese parts suppliers cannot get back to work.
The next several weeks will be critical
for automakers. Parts made in China are used in millions of vehicles assembled
elsewhere, and China’s Hubei province, epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak,
is a major hub for vehicle parts production and shipments.
Industry
experts said auto suppliers had built up a cushion of parts in inventory and
in-transit ahead of the long Chinese New Year holiday in late January. Those
will start to run out if Chinese parts factories cannot get back to work next
week, or if flights to and from China remain limited.
Chinese auto
parts and assembly plants have extended previously planned New Year’s shutdowns
through Feb. 9. But some have pushed the shutdowns out further.
“Almost
everybody has some product where they are in trouble,” said Dan Hearsch, a
managing director for the auto and industrial practice of consulting firm
AlixPartners.
Fiat
Chrysler Chief Executive Officer Mike Manley said Thursday the automaker could be
forced to suspend production at a European assembly plant if parts don’t begin
to flow within two to four weeks. He did not identify the plant or vehicles at
risk.
South
Korea’s Hyundai said shortages of parts from China would force it to suspend
production at its South Korean plants.
Other global
automakers have not disclosed details about potential disruptions outside
China, but have said they are monitoring the risks. Toyota operating officer
Masayoshi Shirayanagi said the automaker is “looking very closely at
inventories of components” outside China.
GM has teams
working around the clock to head off trouble, the automaker’s chief financial
officer said.
---- Still, not all the production from China’s Hubei province can be easily replaced or moved. Hubei is one of 11 Chinese provinces that are responsible for more than two-thirds of vehicle production in China, IHS Markit said in a study last week.
If plants
remain idled into March, the production losses within China would become
significant, amounting to more than 1.7 million vehicles of lost production
during the first quarter, IHS projected.
More
Hong Kong residents hoard toilet paper, noodles as coronavirus fears mount
February 7, 2020 / 7:28 AM
HONG KONG (Reuters) - Panicky Hong Kong
residents scooped loads of tissues and noodles into supermarket trolleys on
Friday despite government assurances that supplies would be maintained during
an outbreak of a new coronavirus that emerged in mainland China last month.
Hong Kong
has had 24 cases of the virus, and one of only two deaths outside mainland
China where almost 640 people have died in the outbreak.
“Everyone’s
snatching whatever they can get. I don’t even know what’s going on,” said a
72-year-old woman surnamed Li as she clutched two bags of toilet roll.
Shoppers
have been clearing supermarket shelves of staples like rice and meat as well as
cleaning products such as soap.
The city’s
government has condemned “malicious rumors” about shortages which have led to
panic buying “and even chaos”, while supermarkets have put limits on the amount
of products, including toilet paper, rice, and antiseptics, that people can
buy.
But hundreds
of shoppers thronged city supermarkets again on Friday, loading up their trolleys.
---- Worry over the virus has led to new friction, with many people, particularly medical workers, demanding that the city government does more to stop the virus crossing in from the mainland by sealing off the border.
Hong Kong
has closed some cross-border links but has said completely sealing it would be
inappropriate, impractical and discriminatory.
On Saturday,
Hong Kong will introduce quarantine for two weeks for all people arriving from
the mainland.
Thousands of
hospital workers have been on strike this week to press the government to close
the border and on Friday they occupied the headquarters of the
government-backed Hospital Authority.
More
Myanmar watermelon farmers feel pinch as coronavirus hits China trade
February 7, 2020 / 11:25 AM
BAGO, Myanmar (Reuters) - In a field in
southern Myanmar, Naing Lin Htet stands among hundreds of overripe watermelons
he intended to export to neighbouring China but will instead leave to rot
because of the fast-spreading coronavirus that has hammered sales.
“The traders
told us not to bring the produce to the border as there are no buyers there,”
the 43-year-old farmer said. “So we don’t dare to bring our fruit.”
Almost all
of his harvest would have been bound for China, he said, but he has chosen not
to waste money on transport and has slashed his 300-strong workforce to just 40
labourers.
China, the
world’s most populous nation, usually has a voracious appetite for everything
from raw materials and fuels to food.
But the
combination of an extended Lunar New Year holiday and the rapid spread of the
coronavirus, which has killed more than 600 people and restricted the movement
of millions more, has jammed logistics channels into and across China.
China is
Myanmar’s biggest trading partner and trade at a single border gate, the
northern town of Muse, is worth about $1 billion (£773.46 million) per year,
government statistics show, with Myanmar exporting rice, pulses, dried tea,
fruit and animal products.
Normally,
hundreds of trucks loaded with watermelons pass into China every day, Sai Khin
Maung, the owner of a fruit warehouse in Muse, told Reuters by phone.
Although the
border remains open, just 20 or 25 trucks carrying the fruit have been passing
the gate in recent days because there are so few buyers, and the goods are
selling for a third of their usual value, he said.
More
WHO warns of global shortage of coronavirus protective equipment
February 7, 2020 / 11:41 AM
GENEVA (Reuters) - The world is facing a
chronic shortage of gowns, masks, gloves and other protective equipment in the
fight against a spreading coronavirus epidemic, World Health Organization (WHO)
chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday.
The U.N.
agency has been sending testing kits, masks, gloves, respirators and gowns to
every region, Tedros told the WHO Executive Board in Geneva.
“However the
world is facing a chronic shortage of personnel protective equipment, as you
might imagine.
“This afternoon I will be speaking to the
pandemic supply chain network to identify the bottlenecks and find solutions
and push (for) fairness in distribution of equipment,” he said.
More
Coronavirus brings China's surveillance state out of the shadows
February 7, 2020 / 12:28 PM
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) - When the man
from Hangzhou returned home from a business trip, the local police got in
touch. They had tracked his car by his license plate in nearby Wenzhou, which
has had a spate of coronavirus cases despite being far from the epicentre of
the outbreak. Stay indoors for two weeks, they requested.
After around
12 days, he was bored and went out early. This time, not only did the police
contact him, so did his boss. He had been spotted near Hangzhou’s West Lake by
a camera with facial recognition technology, and the authorities had alerted
his company as a warning.
“I was a bit
shocked by the ability and efficiency of the mass surveillance network. They
can basically trace our movements with the AI technology and big data at any
time and any place,” said the man, who asked not to be identified for fear of
repercussions.
Chinese have
long been aware that they are tracked by the world’s most sophisticated system
of electronic surveillance. The coronavirus emergency has brought some of that
technology out of the shadows, providing the authorities with a justification
for sweeping methods of high tech social control.
Artificial
intelligence and security camera companies boast that their systems can scan
the streets for people with even low-grade fevers, recognise their faces even
if they are wearing masks and report them to the authorities.
More
In other news, poor Europe.
“It is better to be
roughly right than precisely wrong.”
German industrial production plunges in December
By Maria
Martinez Published: Feb 7, 2020 2:44
a.m. ET
German
industrial production plunged in December. The Federal Statistics Office said
Friday that total industrial output--comprised of output in manufacturing,
energy and construction--fell 3.5% in December from November, in
calendar-adjusted terms. Economists had forecast a 0.1% increase in December,
according to a poll by The Wall Street Journal.
Compared
with December 2018, total industrial output fell 6.8% in calendar-adjusted
terms.
The office
also said production expanded 1.2% in November, more than in the preliminary
figure of 1.1%.
The data
follows disappointing manufacturing orders data Thursday, which showed a 2.1%
decline in orders on an adjusted basis.
French industrial production weaker than expected
By Maria
Martinez Published: Feb 7, 2020 3:08
a.m. ET
French
industrial production fell further than expected in December, data from
statistics agency Insee showed Friday.
The office
said that total industrial output--comprised of output in manufacturing, energy
and construction--fell 2.8% in December from November, in calendar-adjusted
terms. Economists had forecast a 0.4% decline, according to a poll by The Wall
Street Journal.
The increase
compares with revised growth of 0.0% in November.
Manufacturing
output declined 2.6% in December on month, while construction contracted 2.7%
and energy fell 4.0%.
L'Oreal CEO says coronavirus will hamper sales in coming weeks
February 7, 2020 / 9:29 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - L’Oreal (OREP.PA) CEO Jean-Paul Agon
said on Friday that the French cosmetics company had a good January in China
but that the spread of the coronavirus would have an impact on demand in the
coming weeks. “E-commerce will definitely help as people can order products to be delivered to their homes, but it (the virus) will certainly have an impact in the weeks to come,” Agon told a news conference, emphasising that e-commerce accounts for almost 50 percent of L’Oreal’s sales in China, one of its biggest markets.
Agon also said that L’Oreal’s factories and offices were closed in China until Monday and it was too early to quantify the impact on sales.
Burberry shares drop in London as luxury-goods group warns of coronavirus fallout
By Barbara
Kollmeyer Published: Feb 7, 2020
6:27 a.m. ET
Confirming what the market has already been suspecting,
Burberry Group said on Friday that the coronavirus was hitting sales in its
China region. Shares of Burberry BRBY, -1.44% fell 1.5% in London after the luxury-goods group said sales in mainland China and Hong Kong had been affected by the outbreak and suggested its fiscal-year guidance (ending March) could shift. The FTSE 100 dropped 0.7% to 7,454.96 as investors faced a weekend that could potentially bring more troubling headlines on the virus that had killed 636 people in China as of Friday.
“Our most recent guidance for the year predates the impact of the coronavirus outbreak,” the company said, adding that its taking steps to mitigate the fallout. Burberry reported that 24 of 64 stores in mainland China were closed, with reduced hours and a sharp fall in foot traffic for the rest.
China has
cut off some cities and restricted travel, as other countries have also imposed
travel restrictions. The country is an important market for luxury-goods
retailers, and investors have been selling shares of companies in the
sector—Burberry is down nearly 10% this year.
“Today’s
release from Burberry confirms our view that the impact of the virus will be
disproportionately more severe for the companies that are still in turnaround
mode,” said a team of UBS analysts led by Zuzanna Pusz. They expect a
“theoretical 20%” fall in Chinese demand in a single quarter could have a 7%
negative impact on earnings per share.
More
Jaguar Land Rover to cut output at two UK factories
February 7, 2020 / 9:49 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Jaguar Land Rover (TAMO.NS) will reduce or
stop production on certain days at two of its British factories over the next
few weeks as Britain’s biggest carmaker pursues cost-cutting measures in
response to falling demand. JLR posted a 2.3% drop in retail sales in the three months to the end of December and has targeted billions of pounds worth of savings to tackle falling diesel demand in Europe and a tough sales environment in China.
The firm
will halt production on selected days over a four-week period from late
February at its Castle Bromwich factory in central England and stop production
on some half or full days at its nearby Solihull facility until the end of
March.
“The
external environment remains challenging for our industry and the company is
taking decisive actions to achieve the necessary operational efficiencies to
safeguard long-term success,” the company said in a statement.
More
This weekend’s musical diversion. French composer
Jean-Marie Leclair. A major composer
involved in an unsolved murder mystery, his own.
J.-M. LECLAIR: Violin Concerto in F major Op. 7/4, Europa Galante
Jean-Marie Leclair
“The long run is a misleading guide to current affairs. In the
long run we are all dead.”
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 28,256
+97 Up. NASDAQ: 9,151 +152 Up. SP500: 3,226 +130 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is
all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I
continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all
the more urgent by the still increasing coronavirus crisis.
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