Baltic Dry Index. 480 +15 Brent Crude 58.73 Spot Gold 1629
Brexit Freedom
Underway
Covid-19 Cases 21/2/20
China 76,726 Deaths 2247
(Maybe.)
"Rule
No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is never forget Rule No. 1."
Warren
Buffett.
This weekend we
appear to be at a turning point. Bad economic news from the coronavirus crisis is
now arriving daily. Worse Covid-19 infection seems to have become uncontained
in South Korea and Japan.
If more and more
countries have to start closing down cities and factories following China, a
massive supply shock will hit the global economy. Production and consumption
will both fall, unemployment surge, the velocity of money slow drastically.
Below, when bad
news is no longer good news, no matter what central banksters and stock
promoters pretend to boost the latest stock bubble. Does the new reality sink
in next week?
Asian markets retreat amid worries of coronavirus’ spread outside China
By Associated Press
Published: Feb 20, 2020 11:10 p.m. ET
BEIJING — Asian stock markets followed Wall Street lower Friday after a
spike in new virus cases in South Korea refueled investor anxiety about China’s
disease outbreak.
Benchmarks in Tokyo, Hong Kong and Sydney retreated. Traders shifted
money into bonds and gold, a traditional safe haven.
Bond markets are “sounding a warning on global growth” as virus fears
spread to South Korea, Singapore and other economies, DBS analysts said in a
report.
Markets had been gaining on hopes the outbreak that began in central
China might be under control following government controls that shut down much
of the world’s second-largest economy.
Sentiment was buoyed by
stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data and rate cuts by China and other
Asian central banks to blunt the economic impact.
But investors were jarred by South Korea’s report of 52 new cases of the
coronavirus. That renewed concern the infection is spreading in South Korea,
Singapore and other Asian economies.
More
Coronavirus on G20 agenda as China reports uptick in cases
February 21, 2020
/ 12:45 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - China reported an uptick in new cases of coronavirus on Friday,
boosted by more than 200 people testing positive for the disease in two prisons
outside of Hubei province, the epicentre of the outbreak.
The epidemic is set to be a major focus of discussion at a meeting on
the weekend of finance leaders from the Group of 20 major economies, Bank of
Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said, amid rising risks to global growth.
Japan and Singapore are on the brink of recession and South Korea on
Friday said its exports to China slumped in the first 20 days of February as
the outbreak upends global supply chains.
Mainland China had 889 new confirmed cases of coronavirus infections as
of Feb. 20, the National Health Commission said, up from 394 cases a day
earlier. The death toll rose by 118 to 2,236, mostly in the Hubei provincial
capital of Wuhan, which remains under virtual lockdown.
Infections found in two jails, in the northern province of Shandong and
the eastern province of Zhejiang, made up most of the 258 newly confirmed cases
outside Hubei.
Top officials deemed responsible for the outbreaks have been fired,
authorities said on Friday.
---- South Korea’s fourth-largest city is the latest hotspot, with streets abandoned and residents holed up indoors after dozens of people caught the new coronavirus in what authorities described as a “super-spreading event” at a church.
The deserted shopping malls and cinemas of Daegu, a city of 2.5 million
people, became one of the most striking images outside China of an outbreak
that international authorities are trying stop from becoming a global pandemic.
The Tokyo Metropolitan government said it would cancel or postpone major
indoor events for the next three weeks, Jiji newswire reported, as the Japanese
capital prepares to host the 2020 Olympic Games starting in July.
More
Coronavirus: Wuhan still struggling to get medical supplies after nearly a month of lockdown
·
Officials say situation in the city and across
Hubei province ‘still extremely serious’ but it has improved
·
Shortages of medical gear and food still a
challenge, as is delivering the essentials to people
Keegan Elmer Published: 11:00pm, 20 Feb, 2020 Updated:
11:00pm, 20 Feb, 2020
Nearly a month after the lockdown of Wuhan – a city of 11 million people
and the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak – officials say they are still
struggling to cope with a shortage of medical supplies and getting essentials
to people, but the situation has improved.
The coronavirus, which causes a disease known as Covid-19, has
infected more than 74,000 people and killed over 2,100 in mainland China , with more
than 1,500 deaths in Wuhan alone. It has spread to more than two dozen
countries since it was first identified in late December.
Sunday will mark one month since the city at the heart of the outbreak
took unprecedented infectious disease control measures, including shutting down
businesses, schools and transport, and confining residents to their homes.
Other cities in the province imposed similar controls in a mass quarantine
effort affecting more than 50 million people.
Other officials at the briefing insisted that improvements in disease control
were being made, but admitted shortages of medical supplies and food would
still be a challenge in the days ahead.
“As Wuhan continues to enforce stricter disease control systems, the
demand for medical supplies will increase significantly,” said Lian Weiliang,
deputy director the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top
policy planning agency.
Officials have stepped up control measures since Wuhan and other cities
in Hubei
All vehicle traffic in the province was banned on Sunday, with the
exception of police cars, ambulances and vehicles carrying essential goods or
performing public services.
“Initially, our primary shortage was in the supply of N95 masks and eye
goggles. Now supplies of caps, gloves and boots are starting to run short. In
addition, the need for ventilators, heart monitors and X-ray machines is
rising,” said Lian, referring to supplies needed by medical workers.
“We can ensure the basic daily necessities, but with the tightening of
disease control measures, in terms of the delivery of these daily necessities,
we still have many problems that need to be resolved,” he said.
“We have to reduce the flow of people, but logistics relies on human
labour, and so, to some degree, there has to be a flow of people. We have to
strike a balance in order to guarantee supply [of daily necessities],” he said.
There had also been a shortage of essentials like meat and infant
formula in some parts of Hubei province, Lian said, without specifying where.
He said the State Council had prepared emergency goods that could be
dispatched to Hubei if needed, including 80,000 tonnes of rice, 36,000 tonnes
of pork, 29,000 tonnes of fresh vegetables and 300 tonnes of pork sausages.
More
China's Hebei province sets up $7 billion financing vehicle to shore up local economy
February 20,
2020 / 4:49 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - The northern Chinese province of Hebei has
established a special financing vehicle worth 50 billion yuan ($7.1 billion) to
help get the local economy up and running again after being hit by coronavirus
disruptions.
The funding is aimed at helping businesses resume production,
stabilising investment and ensuring that planned infrastructure projects
including venues for the Winter Olympics, will continue to move forward, the
Hebei Development and Reform Commission said on its website on Thursday.
The coronavirus epidemic has killed more than 2,100 and analysts believe
China’s first-quarter economic growth may dip below 5%.
Hebei, which surrounds the capital Beijing, is China’s top steel
producer and the province is working on a new development zone that will become
a regional economic hub.
The province has planned 163 new projects in 2020 worth a combined 443.6
billion yuan. These include infrastructure projects worth 138.9 billion yuan
and new steel projects worth 65.2 billion yuan, the planning commission said in
a document in January.
The coronavirus epidemic has killed more than 2,100 and analysts believe
China’s first-quarter economic growth may dip below 5%.
Hebei, which surrounds the capital Beijing, is China’s top steel
producer and the province is working on a new development zone that will become
a regional economic hub.
The province has planned 163 new projects in 2020 worth a combined 443.6
billion yuan. These include infrastructure projects worth 138.9 billion yuan
and new steel projects worth 65.2 billion yuan, the planning commission said in
a document in January.
Coronavirus: Hong Kong school closures cripple bus companies
·
Operators say drivers and minders have been left
unpaid and threatening to quit
·
And a government subsidy to ease their woe is ‘a
drop in the bucket’
Chan Ho-him Published: 9:35pm, 20 Feb, 2020
Drivers and minders on Hong Kong school buses have been left unpaid and
threatening to quit, operators warned on Thursday, their income cut off because
of class suspensions aimed at curbing the coronavirus outbreak.
That came a day after the government announced a one-off subsidy for
school bus companies – between HK$10,000 (US$1,285) and HK$20,000 per bus – as
part of a HK$30 billion relief package for industries hit hard by the
contagion.
A separate subsidy of more than HK$160 million was also set aside by the
Education Bureau for kindergartens struggling financially, and primary and
secondary schools looking to strengthen anti-infection measures such as buying
surgical masks and cleaning items.
But bus operators said the subsidies were
not enough, while school heads said that even with the cash injection they
would struggle to get their hands on masks.
Three major associations which between them represent about 90 per cent
of workers in the 11,000-strong school bus sector said up to 5,500 school buses
had been left idle, while many parents had demanded refunds on fares after
classes were suspended from February 3.
Tam Wai-chiu, director of the Motor Transport Workers General Union’s
non-franchised bus branch, said the sector expected class suspensions to extend
beyond March, but urged parents and schools to keep the industry running by
paying fares as usual.
“We can’t pay our employees if we can’t collect any money,” he said.
“Past experience shows summer holidays often get shortened after classes are
cancelled for a long period. If that’s so, our sector will provide free school
bus services during the extra class period.”
----“A government subsidy of up to HK$20,000 per
bus is merely a drop in the bucket,” he said, adding that monthly expenses for
each school bus could be up to HK$60,000.
An owner of a bus company with a fleet of 20, who only gave her surname
She, said income was as much as HK$1 million per month, but expenses including
monthly salary for 60 drivers and minders, plus the costs of petrol, parking
and repayments on the vehicles could amount to HK$900,000.
“I have already paid the [drivers’ and minders’] salaries in January ...
but there is no more money in our account. I’m afraid and don’t know what to
do,” she said.
More
These are the countries where novel coronavirus cases have been confirmed worldwide
Hong Kong (CNN)The novel coronavirus has spread throughout the world since the first cases were
detected in central China in December. At least 2,100 people have died and more
than 75,500 people have been infected, and the World Health Organization (WHO)
has declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern.
China's
National Health Commission has confirmed the virus can be transmitted
from person to person through "droplet transmission"
-- where a virus is passed on due to an infected person sneezing or coughing --
as well as by direct
contact.
There
are at least a 1,100 confirmed cases of novel coronavirus in 29 countries and
territories outside mainland China. More than half of those cases are linked to
the stricken Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Yokohama, Japan.
Eleven
people have died outside of mainland China from the virus. Three deaths have
been recorded in Japan, including two Diamond Princess passengers. Hong Kong
and Iran have recorded two deaths each, with one death each in South Korea, the
Philippines, Taiwan, and France.
Several
countries, including the United States and Japan, have evacuated their
nationals on flights from Wuhan, capital of Hubei province and the epicenter of
the outbreak. The US and other countries have also evacuated passengers from
the Diamond Princess.
This
is a full list of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, officially called
Covid-19, outside mainland China.
Finally, GB gets a new 20 Pound plastic banknote.
New polymer £20 featuring painter Turner enters circulation
20 February 2020
You'll soon no longer find Adam Smith in your wallet or purse. The economist
has been replaced as the face of the £20 note by artist JMW Turner.
The Bank of England said the new polymer £20 - which enters circulation
on Thursday - is its most secure ever banknote.
It includes two see-through windows and a two colour foil to help beat
forgers.
The Bank reckons half of all ATMs across the UK to be dispensing the new
notes in just two weeks' time.
The new £20 is the third plastic banknote to be issued by the Bank of
England after the fiver featuring Winston Churchill - launched in 2016 - and
the tenner featuring Jane Austen, which was first issued in 2017.
It replaces the paper one featuring Adam Smith which has been in
circulation since 2007.
But you'll still be able to use the old notes for
many months to come. The Bank will give six months' notice ahead of its legal
tender status being withdrawn.
More
Do coronaviruses last longer on
plastic banknotes than paper ones?
Will Covid-19 decline in the
summer only to re-appear next winter?
If it does, will it be worse
second time out like the 1918-1919 flu pandemic?
Will it be far worse for those
getting a second Covid-19 infection, as with other coronaviruses like Ebola or Dengue
fever, making vaccines a dangerous risk unless fully tested over a long
sequence of trials in animals?
I don't know either but neither
do the central banksters busy propping up most stock market bubbles.
"Price
is what you pay. Value is what you get."
Warren
Buffett.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more corporate fallout from coronavirus starts cascading in. But
it’s still far too early to guess what the real damage will be.
If global production, consumption, and the velocity of money drop in a
meaningful way, unemployment will inevitably rise, further lowering consumption
and the velocity of money, increasing western budget deficits, and all to
likely bringing on the next recession.
Maersk warns of coronavirus impact as earnings miss expectations
By Dominic
Chopping Published: Feb 20, 2020
2:49 a.m. ET
Danish shipping giant A.P. Moeller-Maersk AS said Friday
that it made weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter earnings and warned that it
expects a weak start to the year with limited visibility for the rest of 2020
amid the coronavirus outbreak.Maersk MAERSK.A, +1.19% MAERSK.B, +1.12% swung to an unexpected net loss in the quarter of $72 million from a profit of $46 million in the year-earlier period. A FactSet analyst poll had expected a net profit of $343 million. It said that its financials are materially impacted by implementing the IFRS 16 accounting standard and 2019 figures aren’t comparable with last year.
Maersk, which is considered a barometer of global trade, saw revenue fall 5.6% to $9.67 billion, missing expectations of $9.94 billion, as its shipping unit lowered capacity to adjust to market conditions.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation for the quarter came in at $1.46 billion against expectations for $1.53 billion. For the full-year, Ebitda rose to $5.71 billion, meeting the company’s own guidance of between $5.4 billion and $5.8 billion.
The company’s main shipping unit saw revenue fall as volumes dropped 1.8% while freight rates slipped 0.4%. Maersk said it continued to cut its cost base at the unit while lower fuel prices also helped offset some of the weakness.
Volumes were hit in both East-West and North-South routes, amid continued slower growth in the U.S. and front loading of orders in the same quarter last year ahead of anticipated tariffs, lower demand in Europe, continued weak demand in Latin America, and weakened market conditions in West and Central Asia and Oceania.
Maersk said the outlook and guidance for 2020 is subject to significant uncertainties and impacted by the current outbreak of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) in China, which has significantly lowered visibility on what to expect in 2020.
“As factories in China are closed for longer than usual in connection with the Chinese New Year and as a result of the COVID-19, we expect a weak start to the year,” the company said.
Foxconn says cautiously resuming China output, warns coronavirus will hit revenue
February 20,
2020 / 6:19 AM
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan’s Foxconn said on Thursday it would
“cautiously” resume production at its main factories in China as the major
Apple Inc supplier warned revenue will be hit this year by the coronavirus
epidemic.
Its warning comes just days after Apple rescinded its March quarter
sales guidance because of slower-than-anticipated resumption of production in
China and weak demand there, the world’s biggest smartphone market.
Foxconn, the world no. 1 contract manufacturer whose clients also
include Huawei, said plants in countries such as Vietnam, India and Mexico
continued to be operating at full capacity with expansion plans under way as it
seeks to minimize the impact of the virus.
It said the outbreak will have a negative impact on its full-year
revenue, without disclosing details.
Reuters reported earlier this month that Foxconn could see a “big”
production impact, with shipments to customers including Apple facing
disruption due to the prolonged Chinese factory halt, and that the company was
utilizing factories in other countries to fill the gap.
Air France-KLM warns of coronavirus hit as 2019 profit falls
By Olivia
Bugault Published: Feb 20, 2020 1:48 a.m. ET
Air France-KLM said Thursday that profit and operating
result fell in 2019, and warned on the effect of the coronavirus for 2020.The Franco-Dutch carrier AF, -5.61% reported a net profit of 290 million euros ($313.1 million) in 2019 down EUR130 million from with the same period a year earlier.
Its closely-watched operating result fell 19% to EUR1.14 billion, hit by rising fuel bills and pressure at its Cargo business, while revenue edged up to EUR27.19 billion.
Looking to 2020, Air France-KLM gave a first estimation of the cost of the coronavirus along with its guidance.
Due to flights suspensions to and from China, Air France-KLM estimates
that the coronavirus could hit its operating result by EUR150 million to EUR200
million for February to April. It also expects unit revenue to decrease at
constant currency in its first quarter because of the health crisis.
Its fuel bills should decrease by EUR300 million to EUR5.2 billion in
2020, it said.
Coronavirus outbreak to cost airlines almost $30bn
2 hours ago
Airlines stand to lose $29.3bn (£23.7bn) of revenue this year due to the
coronavirus outbreak, the global airline industry body has warned.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts demand for
air travel will fall for the first time in more than a decade.
Airlines in China and other parts of the Asia Pacific region are
expected to take the vast majority of the impact.
It comes as carriers around the world have been forced to reduce
flights.
In total, airlines in the Asia Pacific region are set to see a $27.8bn
revenue loss in 2020, while those outside Asia are expected to lose $1.5bn in
revenue, IATA has forecast.
Of that figure, IATA predicts that carriers in China are set to lose
revenue of $12.8bn in their home market alone.
In a statement Alexandre de Juniac, IATA's director-general said:
"Airlines are making difficult decisions to cut capacity and in some cases
routes... This will be a very tough year for airlines."
---- It also assumes that the virus remains centred on China, but warned the effect could be far worse if the infection spreads further in the region.
IATA has previously forecast that Asia Pacific would be the biggest
driver of air travel demand between 2015 and 2035, with four of the five
fastest-growing markets in terms of passengers being from Asia.
Yesterday two major airline groups warned of a severe financial impact
as the coronavirus outbreak dampens demand for travel in Asia.
Australia's Qantas said the outbreak would result in a 100m -150m
Australian dollar hit for the financial year, once it had accounted for cutting
flights.
European carrier Air-France KLM estimated the
coronavirus would cost it between €150m and €200m between February and April.
Schneider Electric estimates coronavirus costs at 300 million euros
February 20, 2020
/ 6:11 AM
(Reuters) -
France’s Schneider Electric (SCHN.PA) expects the
outbreak of a new coronavirus to cost it around 300 million euros (£251
million) in the first quarter, it said on Thursday.
“The Group is assessing the impact of the coronavirus to the business,”
the company said in a statement, adding that it will be felt mostly in China
due to factory closures in January and February.
The virus, which originated in the city of Wuhan in western China, has
so far killed more than 2,000 people, mostly in the country, and spread to more
than two dozen other countries, causing widespread economic and travel
disruptions.
The group, which markets products ranging from electrical car chargers
and lighting control to transformers and production software, expects the
impact to be almost entirely offset throughout 2020, mostly in the second half
of the year.
Full-year sales in the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 27% of
revenue, grew 4.4% organically, with China growing a high-single digit,
delivering a strong performance in commercial and industrial buildings.
“China continues to remain a growth market with dynamism in many end
markets and segments,” Schneider said, adding the demand in original equipment
makers (OEM) could strengthen in the second half of the year.
More
"For
the investor, a too-high purchase price for the stock of an excellent company
can undo the effects of a subsequent decade of favorable business
developments."
Warren
Buffett.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Improving the electrical and mechanical properties of carbon-nanotube-based fibers
Researchers recently developed a technique that can be used to build carbon-nanotube-based fibers by creating chemical crosslinks; the technique improves the electrical and mechanical properties of these materials
Date:
February 18, 2020
Source:
Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology
Summary:
Researchers recently developed a technique that can be used to build
carbon-nanotube-based fibers by creating chemical crosslinks. The technique
improves the electrical and mechanical properties of these materials.
The Lyding Group recently developed a technique that can be used to
build carbon-nanotube-based fibers by creating chemical crosslinks. The
technique improves the electrical and mechanical properties of these materials.
"Carbon nanotubes are strong and are very good at conducting heat
and electricity," said Gang Wang, a postdoctoral research associate in the
Lyding lab, which is at the Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and
Technology at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. "Therefore,
these materials have wide applications and can be used as strong fibers,
batteries, and transistors."
There are many ways to build materials that have carbon-nanotube-based
fibers. "Airplane wings can be made, for example, by embedding these
fibers in a matrix using epoxy," said Joseph Lyding, the Robert C.
MacClinchie Distinguished Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering and
a Beckman faculty member. "The epoxy acts as a binder and holds the matrix
together."
However, combining the tubes to make such materials can lead to a loss
in important properties. "We came up with a method to bring a lot of that
performance back," Lyding said. "The method is based on linking the
individual carbon nanotubes together."
The researchers dispersed brominated hydrocarbon molecules within the
nanotube matrix. When heat is applied, the bromine groups detach, and the
molecules covalently bond to adjacent nanotubes.
"When you pass current though these materials, the resistance to
the current is highest at the junctions where the nanotubes touch each
other," Lyding said. "As a result, heat is generated at the junctions
and we use that heat to link the nanotubes together."
The treatment is a one-time process. "Once those bonds form, the
resistance at the junction drops, and the material cools off. It's like popcorn
going off -- once it pops, that's it," Lyding said.
The researchers faced many challenges when they were trying to build
these materials. "We have to find the right molecules to use and the
proper conditions to make those bonds," Wang said. "We had to try
several times to find the right current and then use the resulting material to
build other devices."
"This paper is the first step in making a new class of materials.
It is likely that the performance we see now will become better because it has
not been explored fully yet," Lyding said. "We are interested in
investigating how strong we can make these materials, how we can improve their
electrical conductivity, and whether we can replace copper wires with materials
that are 10 times lower in weight and have the same performance."
Another weekend and how much more
economic bad news will surface due to Covid-19?
Will airlines drop South Korea next?
After having made a long distance
UK train journey mid-week, I saw first hand just how easy it would be for the coronavirus
to spread in the UK if it ever got loose in the UK. If it doesn’t get contained in East Asia,
mostly China and South Korea, a massive global economic shutdown lies
ahead. Have a great weekend everyone.
"Should
you find yourself in a chronically leaking boat, energy devoted to changing
vessels is likely to be more productive than energy devoted to patching
leaks."
Warren
Buffett.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
All higher
again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed
monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the
Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the
rising economic threat from the coronavirus crisis.
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