Baltic Dry Index. 430 -23 Brent Crude 56.52 Spot Gold 1556
Brexit Freedom Underway
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases 6/2/20 China 28,413
Deaths 566
"Curiouser and curiouser!"
Alice in Wonderland.
First the good news. Forget coronavirus, buy more! I
suspect that this good news will be temporary to what comes next. I don’t
believe the official figures out of China. The actions taken in locking down
people and cities implies a much bigger problem than the official figures
suggest. More and more of the world’s second largest economy is closing down.
A classic sell opportunity.
Cui bono?
Asian markets surge as coronavirus fears fade
By Marketwatch
Published: Feb 5,
2020 11:53 p.m. ET
Asian markets rose in early trading Thursday on optimism
that the coronavirus outbreak would be contained.Markets got an unexpected boost later in the day as China announced it was cutting tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods in half.
On Wednesday, there were unconfirmed reports that researchers had made breakthroughs toward developing a vaccine, but the World Health Organization said there are still no known effective therapeutics against the coronavirus.
U.S. health officials said it is too soon to say when the outbreak may peak. “We’re preparing as if this is a pandemic,” said Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, according to the Associated Press.
China reported Thursday that the number of confirmed cases had risen to more than 28,000, with 563 deaths.
Still,
traders appeared confident that the economic impact of the outbreak would be
contained and short-lived.
More
China to cut tariffs in half on $75 billion of U.S. goods
By Mike
Murphy
Published: Feb 6,
2020 12:10 a.m. ET
China announced Thursday it will cut tariffs on $75 billion
of U.S. imports by half, starting next week.In a statement, China’s Ministry of Finance said 10% tariffs on some U.S. goods would be cut to 5%, while other goods that have faced 5% levies will have those cut to 2.5%, starting at 1:01 p.m. Feb. 14, Beijing time.
The ministry said the move was made “In order to promote the healthy and stable development of Sino-U.S. economic and trade relations.”
While the statement did not mention the current coronavirus outbreak, on Saturday the ministry suspended tariffs against some U.S. imports that could be used to help treat victims of the epidemic.
The retaliatory tariffs by China had been put into effect Sept. 1, as the U.S. similarly raised tariffs on $112 billion of Chinese goods.
In January, the U.S. and China signed a “phase one” trade deal, signalling a truce in a yearslong trade war. The deal cuts U.S. tariffs to 7.5% on about $120 billion in Chinese goods, but kept in place tariffs on about $360 billion of Chinese imports. President Donald Trump said those tariffs would stay in place until there’s a “phase two” trade deal.
U.S. stock futures gained after the announcement, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures YM00, +0.70% , S&P 500 futures ES00, +0.59% and Nasdaq futures NQ00, +0.76% all ticking up. Asian markets, which had been rising before the news, continued their gains, with indexes in Japan NIK, +2.68% and Hong Kong HSI, +2.73% up around 2%.
Next the bad news. Far from being contained, the coronavirus crisis is growing and grossly under counted. Our only break so far, is a relatively low death rate, unless that is also under counted.
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
By Keoni Everington, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2020/02/05 18:59
TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — As many experts question the veracity of China's
statistics for the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak, Tencent over the weekend seems
to have inadvertently released what is potentially the actual number of
infections and deaths, which were astronomically higher than official figures.
On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), Tencent, on its webpage titled
"Epidemic Situation Tracker," showed confirmed cases of novel
coronavirus (2019nCoV) in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official
figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four
times the official figure.
The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number
that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly
higher than the 300 officially listed that day.
More
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
China virus death toll jumps past 500, more cases on cruise ship off Japan
February 6, 2020
/ 1:14 AM
SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - Ten more people on a
quarantined cruise liner in a Japanese port have tested positive for
coronavirus, officials said on Thursday, as the virus death toll in mainland
China hit 563, with almost 3,000 new cases reported.
About 3,700 people on Carnival’s Diamond Princess are facing at least
two weeks quarantine on the ship, which has 20 virus cases and testing is
continuing. Japan now has 40 virus cases.
“We are hopeful that the U.S. government will be sending transport for
the Americans on board,” Gay Courter, a 75-year-old American novelist aboard
the ship, told Reuters.
“It’s better for us to travel while healthy and also if we get sick to
be treated in American hospitals.”
In Hong Kong a cruise ship with 3,600 passengers and crew was
quarantined for a second day on Thursday pending testing after three positive
cases onboard.
Authorities said 33 crew members on the World Dream had developed
respiratory tract infection symptoms and three had been sent to a hospital for
isolation and management after developing fevers.
All but one of the 33 tested negative for the disease, with the
remaining test pending, the city’s health department said in a statement late
on Wednesday.
Taiwan’s health authority banned all international cruise ships from
docking at the island from Thursday.
Another hotspot emerged with at least three people contracting the
disease after attending a mid-January company meeting held with 94 overseas
staff, including one from Wuhan, at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Singapore.
---- The case provided more evidence the virus is spreading through human-to-human contact outside China, which the WHO has said is deeply concerning and could signal a much larger outbreak.
The virus death toll in mainland China jumped by 73 to 563 on Thursday,
its third consecutive record daily rise, as experts intensified efforts to find
a vaccine for a disease that has shut down Chinese cities and factories and
could damage the world’s second-largest economy.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health/china-virus-death-toll-jumps-past-500-more-cases-on-cruise-ship-off-japan-idUKKBN20003F?il=0
Taiwan bans international cruise ships from docking
February 6, 2020
/ 4:02 AM
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Taiwan’s health authority banned all international
cruise ships from docking at the island from Thursday amid increasing threat of
the coronavirus outbreak, after 10 more people were tested positive for the
virus on a quarantined cruise liner in Japan.
Many tourists aboard the Japanese cruise ship entered Taiwan for a
day-trip when the boat anchored at its northern port of Keelung on Jan. 31,
according to immigration authority, with local media saying they probably
visited several popular tourist sites in Taipei.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-taiwan/taiwan-bans-international-cruise-ships-from-docking-idUKKBN2000AP?il=0
Data suggests virus infections under-reported, exaggerating fatality rate
February 5, 2020
/ 10:14 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Fatalities from the coronavirus
epidemic are overwhelmingly concentrated in central China’s Wuhan city, which
accounts for over 73% of deaths despite having only one-third the number of
confirmed infections.
In Wuhan, the epicenter of the disease, one person has died for every 23
infections reported. That number drops to one on 50 nationally, and outside
mainland China, one death has been recorded per 114 confirmed cases.
Experts say the discrepancy is mainly due to under-reporting of milder
virus cases in Wuhan and other parts of Hubei province that are grappling with
shortages in testing equipment and beds.
“In an outbreak your really have to interpret fatality rates with a very
skeptical eye, because often it’s only the very severe cases that are coming to
people’s attention,” said Amesh Adalja, an expert in pandemic preparedness at
the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore.
“It’s very hard to say those numbers represent anything like the true
burden of infection” said Adalja, who estimates current fatality rates are
likely below 1%.
As of Tuesday, 24,551 cases have been confirmed globally. A 1% fatality
rate would put total cases at over 49,000, based on the current death toll of
492.
---- In Wuhan, some patients with milder symptoms have been turned away from hospitals in recent weeks because of the strain on resources, several people in the city told Reuters. Others have opted to self-isolate.
Wuhan resident Meiping Wang said she and her sister both believe they
have mild cases of the virus after their mother tested positive, but have not
been tested.
“There is no use going to the hospital because there is no treatment,”
Wang, 31, said in a telephone interview.
Under-reporting mild cases - which increases fatality rates - could have
a negative social and economic impact as global health authorities race to
contain the disease.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-deaths/data-suggests-virus-infections-under-reported-exaggerating-fatality-rate-idUKKBN1ZZ1AH
Qualcomm says China virus threatens phone industry disruption
February 5, 2020
/ 9:21 PM
(Reuters) - Chip maker Qualcomm Inc (QCOM.O) said on Wednesday
that the coronavirus outbreak in China poses a potential threat to the mobile
phone industry, with a possible impact on manufacturing and sales.
The comments by Qualcomm, the world’s biggest supplier of “modem” chips
that connect mobile phones and other devices to wireless data networks, dragged
down chip stock shares despite signs that an industry downturn was ending.
Qualcomm’s chief financial officer, Akash Palkhiwala, on a conference
call with investors following the release of quarterly results, said the
company expects “significant uncertainty around the impact from the coronavirus
on handset demand and supply chain.”
Qualcomm shares fell as much as 3.75% in after-hours trade.
The San Diego-based chip supplier forecast revenue for its fiscal second
quarter largely above Wall Street estimates, in the latest sign that the
protracted slowdown in the global chip industry is easing.
The forecast was wider than usual because of the outbreak in China,
which has killed hundreds and sparked fears around the world. The company
lowered the bottom end of its earnings-per-share guidance by 5 cents to account
for possible disruptions, Palkhiwala said.
On the conference call, Qualcomm officials tried to calm analyst
concerns over the virus, saying that the biggest 5G markets this year are
expected to be in the United States, Korea and Japan, and that the company
could weather disruptions.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-qualcomm-results/qualcomm-says-china-virus-threatens-phone-industry-disruption-idUKKBN1ZZ2VW
Coronavirus hurts production at Airbus, Hyundai
Published: Feb 5, 2020 7:09 a.m. ET
Airbus SE shut down a key factory in China, cutting almost 10% of global
production of its most popular jet, as precautions taken to contain the
coronavirus outbreak ricochet across global industries.
The move follows Hyundai Motor Co.'s decision Tuesday to begin suspending
production at all seven of its plants in South Korea because of a lack of parts
made by suppliers in China. It was the first big auto manufacturer to close
factories outside of China because of supply-line bottlenecks created by
widespread factory outages inside the country and strict limits on worker
movements.
Many global companies have suspended production, closed facilities and
shut retail outlets in China. In many cases, they have extended preplanned
shutdowns coinciding with the Chinese Lunar New Year. As it tries to contain
the spread of the deadly coronavirus, the Chinese government has ordered most
big plants to stay closed until Feb. 10. Airbus had already closed its factory
for the holiday. It said Wednesday it was now extending that suspension
indefinitely, depending on further guidance from Beijing.
The list of companies suffering from Chinese production stoppages
includes major foreign auto makers as well as technology giants such as Apple
Inc. and Foxconn Technologies Co., the biggest manufacturer of its devices.
Analysts expect Apple to ship between 5% and 10% fewer iPhones in the current
quarter because of the disruption.
Many other companies are bracing for supply-line shocks. Industrial
giant Siemens AG set up a crisis team to ensure it can continue to operate
through the epidemic. Chief Executive Joe Kaeser told reporters Wednesday the
team was monitoring potential bottlenecks in the company's supply chain. China
is one of Siemens's largest markets, worth roughly 10% of the group's total
sales.
So far, the German company hasn't encountered problems purchasing
components. The crisis team was to "make sure it stayed that way,"
Mr. Kaeser said.
Airbus, the world's largest jet maker by deliveries, said Wednesday that
domestic and international travel restrictions were hampering its ability to
continue production at its Tianjin factory. The plant manufactures Airbus's
bestselling A320neo narrow body, the rival to Boeing Co.'s 737 MAX. The factory
currently produces about six jets a month. Airbus makes just over 60 of the
jets a month globally.
More
Coronavirus forces Deere to shut down facilities in China
The equipment manufacturer has eight locations in China.
February 3, 2020
Deere & Co. announced that it has temporarily closed
facilities in China in response to the coronavirus outbreak.The Moline, Ill.-based equipment manufacturer maintains eight facilities in China. None of these locations are in Wuhan, which is the epicenter of the virus.
In a report by Reuters, Deere said that most of its employees in China will work remotely.
The coronavirus has claimed the lives of more than 360 people in China with infections being reported at more than 17,400. The Philippines recently reported the first death connected to the coronavirus outside of mainland China.
More
Finally, in other news, to no one’s surprise, President
Trump was acquitted of impeachment by the US Senate. Between a party political
impeachment failure, an Iowa caucus fiasco, extreme far left socialists running
to challenge President Tump in November, can the US Democrat Party save itself
from a Comrade Corbyn like disaster in November?
U.S. Senate acquits Trump in historic vote as re-election campaign looms
February 5, 2020
/ 10:23 AM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - President Donald Trump was acquitted on Wednesday in his U.S.
Senate impeachment trial, saved by fellow Republicans who rallied to protect
him nine months before he asks voters in a deeply divided America to give him a
second White House term.
The businessman-turned-politician, 73, survived only the third
presidential impeachment trial in U.S. history - just like the two other
impeached presidents - in his turbulent presidency’s darkest chapter. Trump now
plunges into an election season that promises to further polarize the country.
Trump was acquitted largely along party lines on two articles of
impeachment approved by the Democratic-led House of Representatives on Dec. 18.
The votes to convict Trump fell far short of the two-thirds majority required
in the 100-seat Senate to remove him from office under the U.S. Constitution.
The Senate voted 52-48 to acquit Trump of abuse of power stemming from
his request that Ukraine investigate political rival Joe Biden, a contender for
the Democratic nomination to face him in the Nov. 3 election. Republican
Senator Mitt Romney joined the Democrats in voting to convict. No Democrat
voted to acquit.
The Senate then voted 53-47 to acquit him of obstruction of Congress by
blocking witnesses and documents sought by the House. Romney joined the rest of
the Republican senators in voting to acquit on the obstruction charge. No
Democrat voted to acquit.
More
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, some of the first estimates of the cost to
the global and Chinese economy from coronavirus. I think current estimates are
gross underestimates.
WHO demands more coronavirus data-sharing, notes global cost of outbreak
The response will cost some $675 million over the next three months, while taking a $60 billion-plus toll on the Chinese economy, officials said.
Feb. 4, 2020 /
3:45 PM / Updated Feb. 4, 2020 at 3:59 PM
Feb. 4 (UPI) -- World Health Organization director-general Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus has asked public health officials in countries impacted by
the 2019 novel coronavirus to improve data-sharing in response to the outbreak.
Ghebreyesus announced during a meeting of the WHO's executive board on
Tuesday that he had sent letters to the relevant agencies in each of the 23
countries with confirmed cases of the virus known as 2019 n-CoV.
The agency also said the cost of response to the new coronavirus, for
the next three months, is estimated at just under $700 million. Another report
put the potential economic cost of the outbreak, for just China, at more than
$60 billion, illustrating that the costs of 2019 n-CoV go well beyond just
treating patients.
In the United States, officials with the Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention and the National Institutes of Health have acknowledged that their
counterparts in China had been proactive in sharing information on the virus
genome -- which can be used as a starting point in the development of drugs and
vaccines against it -- with other countries in early January.
---- On Tuesday, though, Ghebreyesus reiterated the WHO's plan to send a team of international experts to work with Chinese responders. Exactly when that team will be on the ground is still to be determined.
Whether or not other countries are eventually able to work directly in China, the outbreak response is already projected to be an expensive proposition. WHO officials estimate that the overall public health cost of outbreak response in February, March and April will be $675 million.
Their cost estimates were announced on the heels of a report from financial publication Learn Bonds, which has pegged the total economic toll of the ongoing outbreak in China at $62 billion, or about 2 percent of the country's gross domestic product, for the first quarter of 2020 alone.
If accurate, that would make 2019 n-CoV the most expensive infectious disease outbreak of the past 20 years. To compare, the economic impact of the 2015 Ebola outbreak in West Africa was $53 billion.
According to reports, China has already spent approximately $12.6 billion on outbreak response.
ECB chief warns of growing risk from coronavirus
February 5, 2020
/ 12:33 PM
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - China’s coronavirus outbreak is adding to global
economic uncertainty, compounding already widespread worries over the impact of
trade protectionism, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on
Wednesday.
The ECB has long warned that global risks weigh on the euro zone’s
economic outlook but has recently sounded more optimistic, arguing that risks
appear to be abating, driving investors to price out expectations for more
central bank easing.
Lagarde’s newest comments may signal increased caution and could point
to continued anaemic growth in the 19-member currency bloc.
“While the threat of a trade war between the United States and China
appears to have receded, the coronavirus adds a new layer of uncertainty,”
Lagarde said in Paris.
“The short-term uncertainties are mainly related to global risks –
trade, geopolitical and now the outbreak of the coronavirus and its potential
effect on global growth,” she said.
More
"Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six
impossible things before breakfast."
Alice in Wonderland.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
02.05.2020 11:56
AM
Cisco Flaws Put Millions of Workplace Devices at Risk
Five vulnerabilities in Cisco Discovery Protocol
make it possible for a hacker to take over desk phones, routers, and more.
All software has flaws, but embedded device issues are especially concerning given the potential for espionage and the inherent complexity of patching them. These particular vulnerabilities, found by the enterprise security firm Armis, can also break out of the "segmentation" that IT managers use to silo different parts of a network, like a guest Wi-Fi, to cause widespread issues. Attackers could target a vulnerable Cisco network switch—which moves data around an internal network—to intercept large amounts of unencrypted, internal information and move between different parts of a target's system. Attackers could use related flaws, also disclosed by Armis, to attack batches of Cisco devices at once—like all the desk phones or all the webcams—to shut them down or turn them into eyes and ears inside a target organization.
“Network segmentation is a key way to secure IoT devices,” says Ben Seri, vice president of research at Armis. “But sometimes we can poke holes. And we know that enterprise devices are being targeted in the world. If they have this type of vulnerability, unfortunately that can be very powerful for a group like an APT.”
The flaws lie in the implementation of a mechanism known as the Cisco Discovery Protocol, which allows Cisco products to broadcast their identities to each other within a private network. CDP is part of a network's "Layer 2," which establishes the foundational data link between network devices. All devices use some sort of identity broadcasting mechanism, but CDP is Cisco’s proprietary version.
More
“When I used to read fairy tales, I fancied that kind of
thing never happened, and now here I am in the middle of one!”
Alice in Wonderland.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 28,256 +97 Up. NASDAQ: 9,151 +152 Up.
SP500: 3,226 +130 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take.
The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a
month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally,
made all the more urgent by the rising economic threat from the coronavirus
crisis.
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