Baltic Dry Index. 506 +09 Brent Crude 56.63 Spot Gold 1650
Coronavirus Cases 25/2/20
China 80,253 Deaths 2,706
(Maybe.)
When my information changes, I
alter my conclusions. What do you do, sir?
John Maynard Keynes.
After “Black
Monday,” a final exit bounce? Well it
wasn’t exactly black Monday, and any bounce will be weak and very limited in
the face of a growing worldwide slump, and we’re still only two months in to
the start of the growing global shutdown.
Below, global
stock promoters peddle the line that the central banksters are about to sweep
in with “helicopter cash.” I doubt that
they will try, as they know that helicopter cash does nothing to stop a global
pandemic, a pandemic driving more and more of the global supply chain, tourism,
and retailing into recession.
Add in an Asian real
estate and new building collapse led by China, (how is WeWork China doing?) and
even if the FED went all in ECB style, with negative interest rates, it isn’t going to
reverse the looming slump, now getting underway. Rallies from here, if they
happen, are exit rallies.
With a little
luck, Covid-19, like regular annual flu, might fade with the arrival of Spring
and Summer, but what if it returns next autumn and winter? Will a second infection
be more deadly than the first, like Ebola and Dengue Fever, also coronaviruses,
or as with the great deadly flu pandemic of 1918-1919?
Below, the pause
before the panic?
Asia share slide pauses, awaiting clarity on pandemic risk
February 25, 2020
/ 12:33 AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian share markets found some stability on Tuesday after a wave of early
selling petered out and Wall Street futures managed a solid bounce, allowing
investors to take a breather from coronavirus fears.
Some dealers cited a Wall Street Journal report on a possible vaccine as helping sentiment, though human tests of the drug are not due until the end of April and results not until July or August.
Whatever the cause, E-Mini futures for the S&P 500 ESc1 bounced 0.7% to pare some of the steep 3.35% loss the cash index .SPX suffered overnight. EUROSTOXX 50 futures STXEc1 also added 0.6%, and FTSE futures FFIc1 nudged up 0.3%.
South Korea's hard-hit market .KS11 eked out a 0.6% rise and helped MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS fight back to flat.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 was still down 3.4%, catching up to the global sell-off having been shut on Monday, while Shanghai blue chips .CSI300 eased 1.6%.
European and U.S. stocks had suffered their biggest loses since mid-2016 amid fears the coronavirus was morphing into a pandemic that could cripple global supply chains and wreak far greater economic damage than first thought.
The risks were such that bond markets were wagering central banks would have to ride to the rescue with new stimulus.
Futures for the Federal Reserve funds rate <0> have surged in the last few days to price in a 50-50 chance of a quarter-point rate cut as early as April. In all, they imply more than 50 basis points of reductions by year end.
Central banks across Asia have already been easing policy, while governments have promised large injections of fiscal stimulus, something western countries might also have to consider.
The Dow .DJI had ended Monday down 3.55%, while the S&P 500 .SPX lost 3.35% and the Nasdaq .IXIC 3.71%. Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index , jumped to its highest close since early 2019.
Underlining the economic impact of the virus was a 3.5% drop in Apple Inc (AAPL.O) as data showed sales of smartphones in China tumbled by more than a third in January.
The coronavirus death toll climbed to seven in Italy on Monday and
several Middle East countries were dealing with their first infections, feeding
worries it could turn into a pandemic.
“If travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions spread, the impact
on global growth could be more widespread and longer lasting,” said Jonas
Glotermann at Capital Economics.
More
Report claims two-thirds of global coronavirus cases have gone undetected
Rich Haridy
February 23, 2020
A new report from a WHO infectious disease
modeling team based at Imperial College London is estimating about two-thirds
of Covid-19 cases worldwide have gone undetected. The analysis suggests the
global spread of the novel coronavirus is significantly greater than the
current volume of confirmed cases.
“We are starting to see more cases reported from countries and regions outside mainland China with no known travel history or link to Wuhan City,” explains Natsuko Imai, one of the authors on the new report. “Our analysis, which extends and confirms previously released analysis by other groups using flight volumes from Wuhan City and the reported number of COVID-19 cases, demonstrates the importance of surveillance and case detection if countries are to successfully contain the epidemic.”
As of February 23, 2020, there are over 78,000 confirmed cases of Covid-19, the vast majority of which are concentrated in China. Prior studies have suggested most cases present with mild symptoms. Only a small minority of confirmed cases seem to progress into serious pneumonia-like disease, leading some researchers to suggest the virus may have spread wider than current numbers indicate.
This new report set out to explore how accurate current country-based surveillance of the disease may be, in relation to the average volume of travelers flying out of the epidemic epicenter in Wuhan, China.
“We compared the average monthly number of passengers traveling from Wuhan to major international destinations with the number of COVID-19 cases that have been detected overseas,” says another author on the new report, Sangeeta Bhatia. “Based on these data, we then estimate the number of cases that are undetected globally and find that approximately two thirds of the cases might be undetected at this point. Our findings confirm similar analyses carried out by other groups.”
The report concludes it is very likely a number of undetected chains of transmission have begun in many countries across the globe. Director-General of the World Health Organization Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus affirmed this growing concern during a recent WHO briefing.
"Although the total number of Covid-19 cases outside China remains relatively small, we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case," said the Director-General in the February 22nd briefing.
----Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist from Johns Hopkins University, said last week the spread of the virus already constitutes a global pandemic, despite the WHO’s reluctance to deem it so officially. While the difference between an epidemic and a pandemic may be a somewhat semantic one, based on geographic spread of the disease, Nuzzo suggests the terminology does fundamentally affect how we deal with the virus on a local level.
"I am of the belief ... that we are in the early stages of a pandemic," said Nuzzo. “I think it's important for us to ... talk openly about whether containment of an epidemic is possible, or whether we are exacerbating pandemic spread, because my worry is we're diverting resources from the community level.”
Source: Imperial College London
Opinion: If the coronavirus isn’t contained, a severe global recession is almost certain
By Rex Nutting Published: Feb 24, 2020 1:32 p.m. ET
Last week, it seemed as if financial markets believed that COVID-19 would be contained. But new cases in Italy, South Korea and Iran over the weekend undermined that belief. The World Health Organization tried to reassure the public on Monday, saying the disease was not yet a pandemic because it was not spreading in an uncontained way.
Investors are just beginning to price in the possibility of a sharp and nasty global recession that would be followed by a rapid rebound once the disease has run its course. Whenever that will be.
In the longer run, of course, a pandemic could have more far-reaching effects, including a smaller and less productive workforce and even a reordering of globalization.
A pandemic ‘could produce a short-run
impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of an
average postwar recession in the United States,’ the CBO found.
We’d like to think that we can know the worst that could happen, but there is still so much that isn’t known about COVID-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus that emerged in China and now spreading around the world. Most of the economic analysis is based on past pandemics, such as the 1918 global influenza pandemic, and more recent bouts with avian flu, SARS and MERS.
But none of those examples fit the current situation perfectly. For one thing, unlike the flu, no one in the world has any natural immunity to this disease, nor is there a vaccine. The coronavirus is quite contagious, and many more people are likely to get COVID-19 than is assumed in these generic pandemic simulations.
The more recent pandemics weren’t nearly as widespread or deadly as this one seems to be. People who don’t appear to be sick can transmit the virus, making efforts to contain its spread magnitudes more difficult.
What’s more, the 1918 flu pandemic occurred in a different world, the world before airlines shrank the world, the world before globalization knitted our economies closer than ever, and the world before the internet, a technology that can spread misinformation and fear virally around the globe in an instant.
For example, the 1918 pandemic didn’t seem to have much impact on global trade or financial markets. Compare that to what we’ve already seen with COVID-19. Here’s what Apple, Procter & Gamble, Walmart and other U.S. companies are saying about the coronavirus outbreak.
That means the economic impact of a global pandemic of these proportions could be much larger than what investors and policy makers have assumed.
Many economists have tried to model the economic consequences of a pandemic.
CBO did a study in 2005 and 2006, modeling the impact of a 1918-sized flu pandemic on the economy. They found that a pandemic “could produce a short-run impact on the worldwide economy similar in depth and duration to that of an average postwar recession in the United States.” Specifically, a severe pandemic could reduce U.S. gross domestic product by about 4.5%, followed by a sharp rebound.
The CBO assumed that 90 million people in the U.S. would get sick, and 2 million would die. There would also be demand-side effects, with an 80% decline in the arts and entertainment industries and a 67% decline in transportation. Retail and manufacturing would drop 10%.
More
Hong Kong’s construction industry grinds to halt, and union says coronavirus has left 50,000 workers jobless
·
Construction Industry Employees General Union
blames supply chain issues caused by shutdown of factories in mainland China
·
Bosses say another 80,000 workers have had their
hours slashed to just one or two days a week
Lilian Cheng Published: 7:30pm, 24 Feb, 2020
Some 50,000 construction workers in Hong Kong have lost their jobs since
the coronavirus epidemic hit, and more than 80,000 have had their hours
slashed, a union said on Monday.
The Hong Kong Construction Industry Employees General Union said half of
its 57,000 members were now unemployed, a situation it attributed to the supply
chain issues that had arisen since the outbreak began.
Some 250,000 people work in the industry in Hong Kong, and the union
said a third of those fortunate enough to still have jobs had been reduced to
working one or two days a week.
Wong
Ping, the union’s chairman, said the coronavirus had forced many factories in
mainland China to stay shut until a week ago, impacting the amount of building
materials that could be brought into the city.
“The construction chain intertwines with one another. If we do not have
some of the materials, we cannot proceed to the next step,” Wong said.
“For example, some workers can do the nail boarding first, but without
cement pouring in as the next step, you cannot proceed to nail boarding for the
other floors.”
Chow Luen-kiu, the union’s former chairman, said the inability to ship
some prefabricated parts for housing estates to Hong Kong had caused delays in
projects.
---- Private developer Chun Wo Construction
Holdings said its construction sites had been unable to resume projects as
planned.
“Many of the materials have not been brought in from the mainland, such
as concrete cube, and the factories in China have not resumed totally,” Stephen
Lee Ka-lun, the firm’s CEO, said. “It affected all kinds of projects, and it
stopped the following procedures.
“At the same time, we have to separate the workers at the sites to
prevent them from getting infected by one another, and that will slow the
project speed as well.”
More
Singapore Airlines cuts capacity by 10%, freezes hiring as virus takes toll
February 25, 2020
/ 5:40 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Singapore Airlines Ltd has cut nearly 10% of its capacity, frozen
recruitment for ground positions and deferred spending as it deals with lower
demand due to the coronavirus outbreak, according to an internal memo seen by
Reuters.
The carrier has temporarily suspended more than 3,000 flights from
February to end-May, accounting for 9.9% of the group’s scheduled capacity,
said the memo sent to staff.
“We will continue to be nimble and flexible in adjusting our capacity to
match the changing demand patterns in the market,” Chief Executive Goh Choon
Phong said in the memo, first reported by the Straits Times newspaper.
“We have also proactively reached out to our suppliers and partners to
discuss additional mitigating measures during this difficult time,” he said.
---- Travel demand has been hit due to the virus and also as governments imposed curbs on movement to contain the epidemic, forcing airlines to cancel thousands of flights.
Singapore Airlines, earlier this month, said it would cut capacity
across its network in the three months to May including destinations like
Frankfurt, Jakarta, London, Los Angeles, Mumbai, Paris, Seoul, Sydney and
Tokyo.
----
Hong Kong-based rival Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd has cut 40% of capacity across
its network due to the fall in demand associated with the epidemic and asked
all its employees to take three weeks of unpaid leave.
Export-heavy German economy would be hard hit if coronavirus becomes pandemic: Ifo
February 24,
2020 / 10:00 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - The export-dependent German economy would be
particularly hard hit if the coronavirus outbreak turns into a pandemic, an
economist at the Ifo institute said on Monday.
Klaus Wohlrabe said if Chinese economic growth were to be 1 percentage
point lower in the full year, German growth would also be around 0.1 percentage
points lower.
He said the coronavirus outbreak was not yet fully reflected in Ifo’s
survey, which showed business sentiment improving slightly in February.
Sixth person dies in coronavirus outbreak in Italy - state broadcaster RAI
February 24,
2020 / 1:56 PM
MILAN (Reuters) - A sixth person has died in the coronavirus outbreak in
Italy, state broadcaster RAI reported on Monday.
It said the person was a cancer patient in the northern town of Brescia.
France blocks passengers on board bus from Italy after one falls ill
February 24,
2020 / 12:51 PM
LYON (Reuters) - France on Monday blocked the passengers of a coach that
had travelled from the Italian city of Milan to Lyon over concerns one Italian
on board might be suffering from the coronavirus, local health authorities
said.
Police put up a security cordon around the bus and moved the passengers
into an area of the Lyon Perrache bus station where they would not come into
contact with other travellers. The passenger showing flu-like symptoms was
taken to hospital.
Italy is fighting to contain the biggest outbreak of coronavirus in
Europe, which is centred in Lombardy and Veneto, with more than 200 cases
confirmed since Friday and five people dying from the illness.
The French government also issued guidelines on Monday telling parents
whose children had visited China, Hong Kong, Singapore or Italy’s Lombardy
region, or who had come into contact with people from there, during the
February holidays to keep their children at home.
Two more Japan officials aboard ship contract coronavirus
Issued on:
24/02/2020 - 11:42
Two more officials sent to a cruise ship quarantined off Japan to help
with on-board efforts to contain the deadly coronavirus have contracted the
illness themselves, authorities said Monday.
The announcement came as experts warned the next one to three weeks
would be "crucial" to preventing widespread infections and as fears
deepen that the isolation of the virus-stricken Diamond Princess has been
ineffective.
A quarantine officer in his 50s and a health ministry official in his
40s both tested positive and are in hospital, the ministry said, after they
were dispatched separately to the vessel earlier this month.
The new infections come after Japan Sunday reported a third death among
people who spent time on the ship -- a man in his 80s who died from pneumonia.
Six officials linked to containment work on the boat have now tested
positive, fuelling doubts about the effectiveness of the quarantine.
We don't know at the moment through what routes the infections occurred.
We'll find out and take measures," a ministry official told reporters.
- 'Not perfect' -
More than 690 ship passengers have so far fallen ill with the pathogen,
and off the vessel Japan has confirmed over 140 cases across the country,
including an elderly woman who died.
At least 20 foreigners evacuated from the boat have tested positive
after returning home.
More
Coronavirus live updates: fourth Diamond Princess passenger dies as Japan closes some schools
Concerns mount that the spread of Covid-19 cannot be stopped as stock markets fall amid investor fears. Follow latest news- Coronavirus outbreak is pandemic ‘in all but name’, says expert
- Stocks fall as virus fears hit global markets
- Iran denies cover-up after reports of 50 deaths
- What is coronavirus and what should I do if I have symptoms?
Tue 25 Feb 2020 06.24 GMT
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, why very few can expect coronavirus help from their insurance
coverage.
Why Many Businesses Will Be on the Hook for Coronavirus Losses
Burned by SARS, insurers across the board now exclude epidemics in standard business-interruption policies
Jing Yang Feb. 21, 2020 6:00 am ET
With large parts of China in lockdown and other Asian countries on high alert, the virus, which causes an acute respiratory disease called Covid-19, has disrupted shops, hotels, airlines, factories and much else. Multinationals including Apple and Starbucks have closed many outlets in mainland China.
It has some companies poring over insurance policies in hopes of filing a claim for losses from business interruptions. “We are getting lots of questions about it,” said Gisele Norris, a strategic account manager at insurance broker and consultant Aon PLC, and co-leader of its global infectious disease task force.
The odds aren’t great. Insurers and reinsurers learned a costly lesson from severe acute respiratory syndrome in 2002-03. In Hong Kong, HK$325 million ($41.8 million) was claimed for business interruptions from SARS; hotel chain Mandarin Oriental International Ltd. alone recouped US$16 million from its insurers, led by American International Group Inc.
Now insurers across the board exclude epidemics in standard business-interruption policies, which mainly cover property damage from events such as fire, terrorism and natural catastrophes.
“Since the SARS outbreak, insurers added specific exclusions for bacterial or viral outbreaks to our insurance coverage,” said a spokeswoman for Yum China Holdings, which operates Pizza Hut and KFC in China and is the country’s biggest restaurant group.
Forced to close more than three in 10 outlets, the group has warned of possible operating losses for at least the first quarter. Yum has a prudent financial policy and maintains a strong balance sheet, the spokeswoman added.
Coronavirus and
trade tensions are testing the stability of global supply chains. While that’s
pushed some businesses to consider loosening their ties with China, WSJ
explains why leaving the “factory of the world” is easier said than done.
Photo: China Daily via Reuters
“The potential losses from communicable diseases can be terribly large,” said Simon McConnell, Hong Kong-based managing partner at law firm Clyde & Co. “If all economic losses were insured, it would become commercially unviable for insurers themselves.”
“Insurers are in the business of covering risks they can understand,” said Neil Thomas, head of claims for Asia at insurance broker Willis Towers Watson. “There’s not an insurer on the planet willing to put themselves on the front line of something they can’t quantify.”
----It
is also hitting a Chinese economy that is much larger and more
connected to the world than in 2003, so the economic impact is
likely to exceed the $54 billion that the World Bank estimates SARS cost the
global economy. Disruptions in China’s service sector alone could slice 474
billion yuan ($67.5 billion) off gross domestic product in the first quarter,
China Renaissance Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd. estimates, with additional GDP
lost in manufacturing and construction.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
How Low Can Solar Cells Go? Perovskite Researchers Say Down, Down, Down
February 21st, 2020 by Tina Casey
The cost of solar power is sinking
practically by the day, and the next new “hot” solar cell material — perovskite
— will push costs down even more. So far you can’t get perovskite solar cells
in stores but this year will bring a trickle into the market, and a batch of
new research suggests that the trickle will become a flood. When that happens,
look out. The thermal coal market is already in the toaster and perovskite
could fry it to a crisp while also dragging natural gas down along, too.
Perovskite is a naturally
occurring mineral (aka calcium titanate) that has been known to science
since its discovery in the Ural mountains in 1839.Science may have known perovskite, but researchers didn’t fully cotton on to its photovoltaic properties until the 1950s.
Synthetic perovskite is relatively inexpensive and easy to make, which brings up the prospect of using it as a substitute for silicon, the main ingredient in today’s solar cells. Silicon is efficient but pricey, and the hunt has been on for substitutes.
That brings us up to today, when researchers have figured out how to resolve the Achilles’ heel of perovskite, which is its tendency to fall apart in humid conditions. One solution, for example, is to add a dose of graphene to the mix.
Another piece of the puzzle is the use of lead in perovskite solar cells. According to our friends over at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, adding lead in minute quantities can ramp the efficiency of perovskite solar cells close to the 25% range. Without that assist, efficiency is cut in half.
The problem is that lead is toxic in the environment, and the form of lead used in perovskite cells dissolves in water. That’s actually not a problem if the cell is just sitting there undisturbed, but lead could be exposed if the cell is damaged.
A team of researchers from NREL has figured out a way to practically eliminate that risk. Their solution is to coat both sides of the cell with a durable lead-absorbing film.
How durable? Check into the journal Nature and get all the details from their paper, “On-Device Lead Sequestration for Perovskite Solar Cells,” which describes tests that involved hammers, knives, and acid, among other stressors.
Meanwhile, Panasonic and NEDO (Japan’s New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization) have been working on bringing manufacturing costs down for perovskite solar cell modules.
In the latest development, the collaboration has resulted in a 16.09% efficient PV cell that can be fabricated by deploying a high volume, high throughput process similar to inkjet printing.
Aside from bringing down costs, the lightweight cell can operate efficiently in applications where silicon solar cells are impractical, such as windows and building facades.
A conversion efficiency of 16.09% is pretty decent for that type of cell, but the partners plan on tweaking their perovskite formula for future improvements. In any case, the lower efficiency is balanced out by the potential for covering larger areas at less expense.
On the higher end of the efficiency scale is the strategy of combining perovskite with silicon in a single tandem solar cell. The latest development on that score comes from a research team at the Kaunas University of Technology, in Lithuania.
Their new perovskite-silicon tandem cell has been Fraunhofer-certified at 29.15% efficiency, a record-breaker for that type of cell.
The basic idea is to use low-cost perovskite a a means of stretching out the more expensive silicon.
More
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/02/21/how-low-can-solar-cells-go-perovskite-researchers-say-down-down-down/
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
All higher
again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed
monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the
Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the
rising economic threat from the coronavirus crisis.
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