Baltic Dry Index. 434 +09 Brent Crude 57.07 Spot Gold 1586
Brexit Freedom
Underway
Trump’s Nuclear
China Tariffs Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases
19/2/20 China 73,336 Deaths 1874 (Maybe.)
The
definition of an expert in any field, is a person who knows enough about what’s
really going on to be scared.
Anon.
Due to very early
travel on Wednesday, Wednesday’s update is being posted late on Tuesday
evening.
With a major
global supply chain disruption underway, why are stocks trading sky high? Are
the central banks, led by the Fed’s repos, funding the global hedge funds to
keep global tracker funds from selling?
Will it work?
Well possibly, but
only if China’s Covid-19 crisis swiftly comes to an end. If massive global
supply chain problems spills over into reduced global production and
consumption, or worse rising global unemployment, a corporate bust is coming
which will take down global stocks, as everyone sells out to the central
banksters.
It won’t work either
if the Covid-19 spills out of China into the rest of the world, which
thankfully it has barely done if the published official figures are accurate.
If it does spill into a global Covid-19 crisis, mass quarantines will surely
collapse global production and consumption.
Bankster market
rigging at best has limited time effectiveness, at worst can’t halt a
production and consumption collapse.
China sees fall in coronavirus deaths, WHO urges caution, Apple and markets take hit
February 18, 2020 / 1:27 AM / Updated 8
minutes ago
BEIJING/GENEVA (Reuters) - China reported
its fewest new coronavirus infections since January on Tuesday and its lowest
daily death toll for a week, but the World Health Organization said data
suggesting the epidemic had slowed should still be viewed with caution.
The head of a leading hospital in China’s central city of Wuhan,
epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, died of the disease, becoming one of the
most prominent victims since the disease first appeared at the end of last
year.
Illustrating the impact of the outbreak on worldwide growth and corporate profits, oil prices tumbled and equity markets slid after Apple Inc issued a revenue warning due to the disruption the disease is causing to global supply chains.
Chinese officials reported 1,886 new cases - the first time the daily figure has fallen below 2,000 since Jan. 30 - bringing the mainland China total to 72,436. A figure of 98 new deaths marked the first time the daily toll in China had fallen below 100 since Feb. 11, bringing the total to 1,868.
World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus
said Chinese data
“appears to show a decline in new cases” but any apparent trend “must be interpreted very cautiously”.
“appears to show a decline in new cases” but any apparent trend “must be interpreted very cautiously”.
Outside China, there have been 827 cases of the disease, known as COVID-19, and five deaths, according to a Reuters count based on official statements. More than half of those cases have been on a cruise ship quarantined off Japan.
More
Coronavirus could impact 5 million companies worldwide, new research shows
Published Mon, Feb 17 20209:07 AM ESTUpdated
4 hours ago
- A special briefing issued by global business research firm Dun & Bradstreet analyzed the Chinese provinces most impacted by the virus, and found they are intricately linked to the global business network.
- Almost half (49%) of the companies with subsidiaries in impacted regions are headquartered in Hong Kong, while the U.S. accounts for 19%, Japan 12% and Germany 5%.
Dun & Bradstreet researchers found that at least 51,000 companies
worldwide, 163 of which are in the Fortune 1000, have one or more direct or
“tier 1” suppliers in the impacted region.
The new coronavirus outbreak and subsequent shutdown of huge swathes of China could impact more than 5 million businesses worldwide, according to a new study.
A special briefing issued by global data analytics firm Dun & Bradstreet analyzed the Chinese provinces most impacted by the virus, and found they are intricately linked to the global
business network.
The affected areas with 100 or more confirmed cases as of February 5 are home to more than 90% of all active businesses in China, according to the report, and around 49,000 businesses in these regions are branches and subsidiaries of foreign companies.
More
If Apple is hurting due to the coronavirus, its suppliers and rivals likely are too
February 18,
2020 / 10:10 AM
SAN FRANCISCO/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Apple Inc’s (AAPL.O) surprise warning
that it will likely fall short of this quarter’s sales target due to the
coronavirus epidemic points to much pain for its chip and other suppliers as
well as for rivals who also rely on China to build their products. Revising guidance set just three weeks ago, the world’s most valuable tech company said while many factories that make iPhones have reopened for work, they were ramping up more slowly than anticipated.
The outbreak, which has infected more than 72,000 and prevented many employees from returning to work due to travel and quarantine restrictions, was reverberating throughout the U.S. firm’s supply chain, a source familiar with Apple’s operations in China said.
“If one component factory stays closed and they’re the only supplier, then everyone has to stop and wait. And if there are two suppliers and one is shut down, then we need the other to do more,” said the source who was not authorized to speak to media and declined to be identified.
Stacy Rasgon, a Bernstein analyst, said Apple’s woes probably also mean fewer chips will be sold throughout the mobile device industry because the overwhelming majority are made in China.
“Maybe this is the wake up call. I would be astonished if Apple is the only one,” he said. “Every electronic supply chain runs through China in a big way.”Research firm Canalys estimates both Apple, which outsources much of its manufacturing to Taiwan’s Foxconn (2317.TW), and rival
Huawei Technologies [HWT.UL] have 99% of their production in China. The world’s No. 1 smartphone market is likely see sales halve in the first quarter due to the virus, analysts have said.
Chinese rivals Oppo, Xiaomi Corp (1810.HK) and Vivo have 83%, 72%, and 65% of their production in China respectively.
More
Coronavirus: labour groups call for cash handouts to unemployed, say relief programme largely benefiting city’s business owners
·
Calls come as new unemployment figures paint
dire picture for Hong Kong’s retail, accommodation and food service workers
·
Pro-democracy and pro-Beijing unions alike call
for direct payouts to those put out of work amid coronavirus battle
Labour groups on Tuesday called on the Hong Kong government to deliver
cash handouts to residents laid off or forced to take unpaid leave during the
coronavirus outbreak, as new unemployment figures heralded more pain ahead for
the city.
In an afternoon statement, the government announced the unemployment rate had increased by another 0.1 percentage points, to 3.4 per cent, from November 2019 to January 2020, the highest in more than three years.
Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-Kwong said the employment situation for the sectors encompassing the city’s retail, accommodation and food services industries remained particularly difficult, with their combined unemployment rate holding at 5.2 per cent, also a three-year high.
“The labour market will be subject to even more pressure in the near term, as the threat of the novel coronavirus infection has already caused severe disruptions to a wide range of economic activities lately, particularly the consumption- and tourism-related sectors,” Law said, adding that new government relief measures were designed to “minimise any negative impact on the labour market”
More
Japan’s Economy Shrinks 6.3% as Sales-Tax Increase Cools Consumption
In Germany, central bank said it sees no sign of improvement in the first-quarter growth outlook
By Megumi Fujikawa
Updated Feb. 17, 2020 4:11 pm ET
TOKYO—Following a dismal final quarter of 2019, Japan’s
economy is facing the risk of a recession because the coronavirus outbreak is
hurting tourism and production, while Germany’s central bank called on the
government in Berlin to use its surplus to support growth as a broader danger
of a slowdown builds. Japan, the world’s third-largest economy after the U.S. and China contracted at an annualized rate of 6.3% in the October-December quarter, worse than economists’ forecast of a 3.9% contraction. The biggest reason was a sharp drop in private consumption after the national sales tax rose to 10% on Oct. 1 from 8%.
“Because of the effects of the novel coronavirus, weakness in consumption will likely continue in the January-March period. Exports and production could be dreadfully weak as the supply chain is interrupted,” said Daiwa Securities economist Mari Iwashita.
Some economists, including Ms. Iwashita, say Japan could fall into a technical recession—two straight quarters of contraction—this quarter. The contraction in the October-December quarter was the first in more than a year and the biggest since the April-June quarter in 2014, the last time the sales tax was raised.
Germany’s central bank warned Monday that it sees no sign of improvement in the growth outlook in the first quarter of 2020. Germany’s economy, Europe’s largest, has stagnated for almost two years as international trade tensions weighed on its large manufacturing sector. The coronavirus outbreak in China is an additional threat.
The Bundesbank said a temporary decline in China’s economy is likely to damp German exports. “In addition, some global value chains could be affected by the security measures taken. Delivery bottlenecks in individual industries in Germany would be the result,” it said.
----Singapore said Monday it was downgrading its growth forecast for 2020 to a 0.5% contraction to 1.5% growth because of the coronavirus outbreak, which has led to a sharp decline in tourist arrivals. In November, before the outbreak, the city-state’s government had projected growth of 0.5% to 2.5%. Singapore’s Ministry of Trade and Industry said China’s slowdown would have an impact across Southeast Asia due to supply-chain disruptions and reduced Chinese import demand.
Malaysian officials said Friday that the government would announce a stimulus package later this month to assist businesses. “Emphasis should also be placed on exploring alternative revenues such as shifting towards encouraging domestic tourism, and sourcing from other markets,” Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng said.
More
China postpones biannual auto show over coronavirus fears
By Associated Press Published: Feb 18, 2020 1:02 a.m. ET
BEIJING (AP) — China’s biannual auto show, one of the industry’s biggest
international events, is being postponed in response to the continuing spread
of a new virus.
The organizers of Auto China 2020 said in a statement dated Monday that
the sprawling event originally scheduled for April 21-30 in Beijing would be
moved to an undetermined date. The Auto China show has taken on increasingly
heft as global manufacturers seek to grow their sales in China’s massive, but
recently slowing, market for cars, trucks, vans and luxury vehicles.
That makes it the latest major event in China and other nations to be canceled or postponed out of virus fears, including the Shanghai Forumula 1 Grand Prix, other sports events, a major art festival in Hong Kong and a key telecoms conference in Spain.
China is also considering whether to postpone the meeting in March of its ceremonial parliament, the most important political event of the year for the authoritarian Communist government increasingly criticized for an initially slow response to the outbreak and tight controls on information.
China approves antiviral favilavir to treat coronavirus
Drug developed to treat inflammation in nose and throat shown to be effective in clinical trial of 70 patients with the virus.
Feb. 17, 2020 /
12:56 PM
Feb. 17 (UPI) -- Regulatory officials in China announced Monday that they have
approved the antiviral favilavir for use in the treatment of the novel
coronavirus COVID-19.The approval by the National Medical Products Administration was based on the drug's efficacy against the virus in clinical trials started in response to the ongoing outbreak, which has sickened more than 70,000 people globally. The vast majority of the cases have been identified in Hubei province, China.
Specific results of the clinical trial involving favilavir, formerly known as fapilavir, have not been released. The drug was tested in 70 patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection in the city of Shenzhen.
The drug, developed in China by Zhejiang Hisun Pharmaceutical Company originally to treat catarrhal, or inflammation of the nose and throat, is one of three currently being investigated for possible use in the treatment of COVID-19.
The company has begun producing the drug in large quantities to meet the demand created by the outbreak, though it is not the only one being investigated for use against COVID-19.
Another drug option, remdesivir, is being developed by U.S. drugmaker Gilead. Originally intended to treat Ebola virus, remdesivir has reportedly been used to treat one American sickened with COVID-19, and the patient in question has recovered fully.
However, the drug is still undergoing clinical trials and has not yet been approved to treat either COVID-19 or Ebola.
Meanwhile, doctors in South Korea have reported that they have used the HIV combination drug lopinavir plus ritonavir -- marketed as Kaletra -- to successfully treat COVID-19 in a 54-year-old patient.
Researchers in China have also asked patients who have fully recovered from COVID-19 to donate their blood plasma for possible use as the basis of a new treatment for the virus.
More
In other news, as a plague of locusts devastates crops in east Africa, harvests in major food exporter Australia are heading for a record low.
Drought slashes Australian crop output to record low
Issued on: 18/02/2020 -
06:32Modified: 18/02/2020 - 06:30
Australia's hottest and driest year on record has slashed crop
production, with summer output expected to fall to the lowest levels on record,
according to official projections released Tuesday.
The country's agriculture department said it expects production of crops
like sorghum, cotton and rice to fall 66 percent -- the lowest levels since
records began in 1980-81.
"It is the lowest summer crop production in this period by a large
margin," Peter Collins, a senior economist with the department's
statistical body ABARES told AFP.
Early February downpours are likely to have come too late to help farmers.
Swathes of Australian farmland have suffered three or more years of
drought. But 2019 saw rainfall below the previous record low set in 1902 and
average temperatures 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.4 degrees Fahrenheit) above the
previous warmest year in 2013.
The fall in the summer forecast follows a drop of winter crops -- which includes wheat, a major cash crop -- by an estimated five percent.
Australia is one of the world's leading agricultural producers, with the sector making up around three percent of total GDP.
The climate-change-fuelled drought also exacerbated a bushfire season that ripped through more than 10 million hectares (25 million acres) of tinder-dry landscape in Australia's south and east, killing 33 people.
“It’s a recession when your neighbour loses his job; it’s a depression when you lose your own.”
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, cruising. What 60s, 70s, or 80 year olds, will want to risk imprisonment, confined
to cabin, and pay thousands for the privilege?
USA TODAY
Published 9:37 PM EST Feb 17, 2020
A top health official at the National Institutes of
Health acknowledged that the quarantine aboard
the coronavirus-infected Diamond Princess Cruises ship failed while discussing
the decision to evacuate hundreds of American passengers – 14 of whom
tested positive for the virus.Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, said the original idea to keep people safely quarantined on the ship wasn't unreasonable. But even with the quarantine process on the ship, virus transmission still occurred.
The Japanese health ministry said Monday that the number of cases confirmed aboard the Diamond Princess had reached 454.
"As it turned out, that was very ineffective in preventing spread on the ship," Fauci told the USA TODAY Editorial Board and reporters Monday. Every hour, another four or five people were being infected.
Quarantines, isolation, lockdowns: Can they stop the coronavirus?
The quarantine on the ship was scheduled to end Feb. 19, and those who came back to the U.S. a couple of days ahead of the end of the quarantine probably will have to restart the clock on a new 14-day quarantine.
The Princess Cruises ship was carrying 2,666 guests and 1,045 crew when it set sail and was quarantined after 10 cases of coronavirus were reported Feb. 4. About 380 Americans were on the cruise ship.
"The quarantine process failed," Fauci said. "I'd like to sugarcoat it and try to be diplomatic about it, but it failed. People were getting infected on that ship. Something went awry in the process of the quarantining on that ship. I don't know what it was, but a lot of people got infected on that ship."
Opinion Q&A: 'Danger of getting coronavirus now is just minusculy low'
Top disease official: Risk of coronavirus in U.S. is 'minuscule,' skip mask and wash hands
Passengers were instructed to stay in their suites or cabins during the quarantine. Those in interior cabins with no window or outdoor access were able to go on deck for up to an hour and a half but had to stay at least 3 feet from fellow passengers, Matt Smith, a family law attorney from Sacramento, California, told USA TODAY a few days into the quarantine. Meals were dropped off at the door by the ship’s crew.
The crew also distributed masks and thermometers, and passengers were asked to take their temperatures and report readings above 99.5 degrees, Smith said. Common coronavirus symptoms include fever, cough and shortness of breath.
The State Department coordinated with the Department of Health and Human Services and other agencies to bring passengers back to the U.S. It was a tough call to make in the first place, but it grew tougher once 14 passengers tested positive for the virus.
The passengers were thought to be negative and put into the evacuation process. As they were on the bus getting ready to leave, tests came back positive.
Fauci explained there was a choice: Should these people stay in Japan, or should they be flown home?
Passengers ultimately boarded flights home. The infected and the uninfected flew in separate areas of the plane. The infected were in an area Fauci described as similar to a containment laboratory.
To call the situation stressful would be an understatement.
"Many of them were elderly; many of them had underlying conditions," Fauci said. "They just wanted to get home, and we felt it was safe enough on the plane to get them home without infecting anybody else."
'Glad to be going home': Passengers on coronavirus-quarantined cruise detail US evacuation
Fauci said health officials are expecting more positive tests, and he wouldn't be surprised if the number of infected evacuees turned out to be higher than 14.
More
Coronavirus: Largest study suggests elderly and sick are most at risk
18, February 2020.
Health officials in China have published the first details of more than
44,000 cases of Covid-19, in the biggest study since the outbreak began.
Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC)
finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly
most at risk.
The research also points to the high risk to medical staff.
A hospital director in the city of Wuhan died from the virus on Tuesday.
Liu Zhiming, 51, was the director of the Wuchang Hospital in Wuhan - one
of the leading hospitals in the virus epicentre. He is one of the most senior
health officials to die so far.
Hubei, the province Wuhan is in, is the worst affected province in the country.
The report by the CCDC shows the province's death rate is 2.9% compared with 0.4% in the rest of the country.
The findings put the overall death rate of the Covid-19 virus at 2.3%.
China's latest official figures released on Tuesday put the overall death toll at 1,868 and 72,436 infections.
---- While the results largely confirm previous descriptions of the virus and patterns of infection, the study includes a detailed breakdown of the 44,672 confirmed cases across all of China.
It finds that 80.9% of infections are classified as mild, 13.8% as severe and only 4.7% as critical. The number of deaths among those infected, known as the fatality rate, remains low but rises among those over 80 years old.
More
“Suckers think that you cure greed with money, addiction with substances, expert problems with experts, banking with bankers, economics with economists, and debt crises with debt spending”
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Coronavirus Outbreak Could Hit India’s Solar Growth
February 17th,
2020 by Saurabh
The
Coronavirus crisis in China will likely have far-reaching ramifications across
the world as manufacturing has slowed down sharply. Among the various sectors
likely to feel the pinch of this spreading disease is the solar power sector.
Among the
fastest growing solar power markets in the world is India, and developers there
are staring at delays of several of months for delivery
of plant equipment. Multiple developers have told news agencies that they have
been warned of delays and that this would push back the commissioning of
projects.
India plans to achieve 100 gigawatts of operational solar power capacity milestone by December 2022. At the end of 2019 the country had an installed capacity of 34 gigawatts, leaving a gap of 66 gigawatts to be filled in 36 months.
According to multiple international news sources, most Chinese solar equipment manufacturers have yet to reopen facilities at the extended break over Lunar New Year. Like several other major solar power markets, India has a large dependence on Chinese products.
An analysis by PV Magazine showed that China accounted for 78% of all solar cells and modules imported into India. China remains a highly dominant suppliers of solar cells and modules despite the safeguard duty levied by the Indian government. Before the safeguard duty was in place, China’s share of Indian imports was higher than 90%.
Several observers claim that slowdown in manufacturing is only a part of several potential delays in the entire supply chain. Increased screening could delay shipments at ports as well.
Shipment delays isn’t the only potential headache for developers. Long-term shutdown of manufacturing facilities could drive prices of raw materials and modules impacting financials of projects.
In this time of crisis the developers are expected to turn to the government for some relief. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy has told media agencies that delays due to COVID-19 shall be treated as a force majeure event and that relief will be provided to affected developers.
Even before the COVID-19 spread India had been struggling to keep pace with the installation targets. The country now faces a tough task to even achieve a sizeable portion of the said target by the set deadline.
If everything seems under control, you’re just
not going fast enough.
Mario Andretti.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the rising economic threat from the coronavirus crisis.
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