Baltic Dry Index. 508 +02 Brent Crude 55.18 Spot
Gold 1642
Covid-19 Pandemic
underway.
Coronavirus Cases 26/2/20
China 81,007 Deaths 2,763
(Maybe.)
February
26, 1797, the Bank of England issued its first One Pound banknote.
Though the World Health
Organisation won’t call it a “pandemic,” a coronavirus pandemic is exactly what
we now have in the world.
How bad it gets,
is still the big unknown, but prudently we should hope for the best but prepare
for the worst.
A worst that includes
it spreading to all continents except Antarctica, and includes a major disruption
to global trade, including goods, tourism, retailing, and finance.
In finance, with
corporations everywhere mired in unrepayable debt, expect a tsunami of
bankruptcy to sweep over the west before a great reset occurs ushering in a new
era.
But we are
probably many months away from that outcome.
Below, how our new
slump that began in China in December is unfolding. With containment now failed, no one is
prepared for what comes next, simply because our modern globalised,
financialised world has never seen a global pandemic.
Asian markets continue to pull back fears of growing global outbreak
By Marketwatch
Published: Feb 25, 2020 11:13 p.m. ET
Asian markets declined in early trading Wednesday following
another sharp selloff on Wall Street as the global spread of the coronavirus
outbreak continued to rattle traders.Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -1.13% sank 0.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, -0.49% dipped 0.5%. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.30% edged up 0.3%, while the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, -0.79% fell 0.8%. South Korea’s Kospi 180721, -1.05% retreated 1%. Stocks ticked up in Malaysia FBMKLCI, +0.32% , but fell in Taiwan Y9999, -0.70% , Singapore STI, -0.94% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -0.93% . Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -2.48% tumbled 2.3%.
Among individual stocks, SoftBank 9984, -1.45% , Sony 6758, -2.06% and Inpex 1605, -3.79% dropped in Tokyo trading. In Hong Kong, AAC 2018, -2.63% and Sunny Optical 2382, -1.95% fell, along with China Mobile 941, -2.17% . Samsung 005930, -1.90% declined in South Korea, while Beach Energy BPT, -4.15% and Rio Tinto RIO, -1.81% fell in Australia.
“The picture is not a good one,” Jeffrey Halley, senior Asia-Pacific market analyst at Oanda, wrote in a note. “Asian stocks will continue to remain under pressure, remaining acutely vulnerable to new negative virus headlines. Europe is to some extent, still playing virus catch-up, with European stock likely to endure a harsh morning session.”
New cases continued to rise sharply in South Korea, where the first U.S. soldier tested positive for the COVID-19 illness. More than 1,100 cases have been confirmed in South Korea, with at least 11 deaths, according to the Associated Press.
-----U.S. stocks closed Tuesday with the Dow registering its worst two-day loss on record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -3.15% slid 879.44 points, 3.2%, to settle at 27,081.3, while the S&P 500 SPX, -3.03% lost 97.68 points, 3%, to close at 3,128.21. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, -2.77% fell below 9,000, shedding 255.67 points, or 2.8%, to end at 8,965.61.
More
U.S. warned to prepare for coronavirus pandemic as Europe lockdowns spread
February 26, 2020
/ 2:11 AM
ROME/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A second
European hotel was in lockdown on Wednesday as authorities around the world
battled to prevent the spread of coronavirus, although a senior U.S. health
official said a pandemic was inevitable and urged Americans to prepare.
Austria sealed off the 108-room Grand Hotel Europa in the Alpine tourist
hub of Innsbruck after an Italian receptionist tested positive for the flu-like
virus that originated in China and has spread to about 30 countries.
Italy has become a frontline in the global outbreak of the virus, with
280 cases and 10 deaths, most in Lombardy and nearby Veneto. The receptionist
and her partner, who also tested positive, visited their home in Lombardy last
week.
A similar story was unfolding at the four-star H10 Costa Adeje Palace
hotel in Tenerife on the Canary Islands, which was locked down on Tuesday after
an Italian doctor and his wife were found to be infected. Spain also reported
its first three cases of the disease on the mainland.
The United States told Americans on Tuesday to begin preparing for
coronavirus to spread within the country as outbreaks in Iran, South Korea and
Italy escalated and fears that the epidemic would hurt global growth rattled
markets.
Dr. Anne Schuchat, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
principal deputy director, said that while the immediate risk in the United
States was low, the current global situation suggested a pandemic was likely.
“It’s not a question of if. It’s a question of when and how many people
will be infected,” Schuchat said.
Iran’s coronavirus death toll rose to 16 on Tuesday, the most outside
China. Iran’s deputy health minister and a member of parliament were among
those infected.
More
As world scrambles, experts warn virus spread in US certain
NEW YORK (AP) — U.S. health officials warned
Tuesday that the burgeoning coronavirus is certain to spread more widely in the
country at some point, even as their counterparts in Europe and Asia scrambled
to contain new outbreaks of the illness.
“It’s not so much a question of if this will
happen anymore, but rather more a question of exactly when this will happen —
and how many people in this country will have severe illness,” Dr. Nancy
Messonnier of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a
call with reporters.
The CDC’s call for Americans to be prepared
added new urgency to response efforts that, until this week, focused on a
disease largely confined to China, where it apparently originated, and
neighboring countries.
In other developments Tuesday:
— New clusters of the illness popped up far from
China, causing increased concerns for officials in some of the wealthiest
nations in Europe and Asia, as well as in countries with far fewer resources.
But many remained uncertain about how best to contain it.
The new outbreaks were reported in places as
far-flung as Italy and Iran, France and Algeria, and Spain’s Canary Islands.
The tiny Persian Gulf nation of Bahrain said it had 17 cases, including a
school bus driver who had transported students as recently as Sunday.
In Iran, the head of the country’s virus task
force, who just a day earlier had urged the public not to overreact about the spread
of the disease, tested positive himself. The official, Iraj Harirchi, posted a
new video online, promising authorities would bring the virus under control
within weeks.
But a ministry spokesman, Kianoush Jahanpour,
said it could take at least until the Persian New Year’s holiday on March 20,
or as long as late April, to contain the disease. “We don’t expect a miracle in
the short term,” he said.
— Officials in South Korea said they were racing
to contain an outbreak that has grown to nearly 1,000 cases.
More
China factories struggle to get back online amid virus outbreak
By Associated Press
Published: Feb 25, 2020 11:28 p.m. ET
BEIJING — Factories that make the world’s smartphones, toys
and other goods are struggling to reopen after a virus outbreak idled China’s
economy. But even with the ruling Communist Party promising help, companies and
economists say it may be months before production is back to normal. The problem is supply chains — the thousands of companies that provide components, from auto parts to zippers to microchips. China’s are famously nimble and resourceful, but they lack raw materials and workers after the most intensive anti-disease measures ever imposed closed factories, cut off most access to cities with more than 60 million people and imposed travel curbs.
In smartphones, an industry that relies on China to assemble almost all its handsets, some components suppliers say production is as low as 10% of normal levels, according to Nicole Peng of Canalys, a research firm.
“The bad news is that there will be further impact, and the impact is worse than a lot of people initially expected,” said Peng.
Travel and retail businesses that need Chinese customers have suffered the most so far from the partial shutdown of the second largest economy. But brands including Apple Inc. AAPL, -3.39% say it is starting to disrupt their supplies. Analysts warn the longer that disruption lasts, the more damage will spread to wider industries and other economies.
Global brands have used low-cost Chinese labor to assemble goods for three decades. Now, they increasingly depend on China to supply auto, computer and other components. Disruptions can make this country a bottleneck, choking off their sales.
The most optimistic forecasts call for bringing the virus under control by March, allowing manufacturing to rebound. Gloomier outlooks say the outbreak might last until mid-May or later. Or, as the World Health Organization warned this week, authorities might fail to stop its global spread.
More
Feb 26, 2020
06:53 AM
Coronavirus Tuesday Update: U.S. Health Official Warns of Bigger Outbreak, China Offers More Credit Support to Businesses
China is grappling with a new coronavirus epidemic that began in December and has since spread to countries around the world. While the country has made headway controlling the virus’s spread, the picture abroad is less positive as hotspots emerge in a number of other nations, including Japan, South Korea, Italy and Iran.Caixin Global will continue covering this story as it develops. Please check back regularly for updates.
More
14% of Recovered Covid-19 Patients in Guangdong Tested Positive Again
Feb 26, 2020
06:47 AM
South Korea reports 169 new coronavirus cases, including first U.S. soldier
February 26,
2020 / 1:33 AM
SEOUL (Reuters)
- South Korea reported 169 new coronavirus cases on Wednesday, including a U.S.
soldier, as health authorities readied an ambitious plan to test more than
200,000 members of a church hit hardest by the country’s outbreak.
The new cases pushed the total tally to 1,146, with the numbers expected
to rise as the government widens its testing.
Of the new cases, 134 were from Daegu city, where a branch of the
Shincheonji Church of Jesus, which has been linked to outbreaks, is located,
the Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (KCDC) said.
The U.S. military reported its first case of the coronavirus on
Wednesday, in a 23-year-old soldier based in Camp Carroll, about 20 km (12.4 miles)
from Daegu. The camp is also near a disability centre that has had its own
outbreak of the virus.
A twelfth death from the virus was reported on Wednesday, according to
the Joongang Ilbo newspaper.
Around 80 percent of the country’s cases - including at the disability
centre - are linked to the Daegu church, and to a hospital in nearby Cheongdo
County, which some members are believed to have visited.
The church said it had agreed to provide the government with contact
details for all of its members and people in trainee programmes, on the
understanding that the information would not be made public.
“We have obtained a list of 212,000 number of the Shincheonji believers
from the church last night,” vice health minister Kim Gang-lip said at a briefing
on Wednesday.
More
Two new local Covid-19 cases
published : 25 Feb 2020 at 13:06
The Public Health Ministry on Tuesday announced two new Thai Covid-19
cases: a woman, 31, whose relative visited Guangzhou and a male driver of Chinese
tourists, 29, as the total number of local cases rose to 37.
Sukhum Kanchanapimai, permanent secretary for health, said the woman was
a maid and was initially diagnosed with pneumonia of unknown cause. Later,
doctors learned she had a relative who returned from China. She was now being
treated at Rajavithi Hospital.
The male patient was admitted to the Bamrasnaradura Infectious Diseases
Institute in Nonthaburi province. He had been in close contact with Chinese
tourists and initially showed up with a fever and cough.
Health officials were checking if other people close to them were also
infected.
"We found more confirmed cases because the Public Health Ministry
improved its surveillance on February 18, increasing the number of countries,
visitors and provinces under close watch," Dr Sukhum said.
---- He said confirmed cases in Thailand now numbered 37, of whom 22 (60%) had fully recovered and were discharged, while the 15 others remained at hospitals. Twelve of the 37 were Thais.
Patients under investigation numbered 1,580. Of these 1,160 had seasonal
influenza, recovered and were discharged and were being monitored. The other
420 patients remained at hospitals.
More
Finally,
in other news, Europe. Germany joins Italy in leading the Eurozone into recession
and we’ve hardly got started on the effects of the Great Global Slowdown from coronavirus
or Brexit.
How
bad will recession be in Euroland? That
will largely depend on whether the Covid-19 crisis in Europe gets contained in
Italy or jumps out elsewhere.
GB
warns travelers returning from north Italy.
Falling exports bring German economy to standstill in fourth quarter
February 25,
2020 / 7:28 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - Shrinking exports held back German economic activity
in the fourth quarter of last year, detailed data showed on Tuesday, confirming
that Europe’s largest economy stagnated on the quarter from October to
December.
The Federal Statistics Office said exports fell by 0.2% in the fourth
quarter from the third, which meant that net trade took off 0.6 percentage
points from gross domestic product growth.
Gross investment - which includes construction - rose by 2.9% in the
last quarter of the year, adding 0.6 percentage points to growth.
State consumption added 0.1 percentage points to growth while private
consumption, which has been a key pillar of support recently, made no
contribution.
The Statistics Office confirmed that the German economy grew by 0.6%
last year, the weakest expansion rate since the euro zone debt crisis in 2013.
For 2020, the government expects growth to pick up to 1.1%, helped
mainly by a higher number of working days. Adjusted for calendar effects,
Berlin predicts 0.7% growth.
Coronavirus set to deal heavy blow to Italy's ailing economy
February 24,
2020 / 3:51 PM
ROME (Reuters) -
Italy’s economy, which was already contracting at the end of last year, looks
sure to be thrown into yet another recession by a sudden outbreak of
coronavirus that has rocked the country.
More than 220 people have come down with the virus in Italy since
Friday, latest data showed, the vast majority in the wealthy northern regions
of Lombardy and Veneto. Six have died.
Like common influenza, the highly contagious illness is most dangerous
for the weak and vulnerable. The same is true for its economic impact, and in
terms of gross domestic product growth, Italy is as vulnerable as it gets.
The euro zone’s third-largest economy has been the most sluggish in the
19-nation bloc since the start of monetary union. It shrank by 9% in the wake
of the 2008 global financial crisis and has recovered only about half of that
since then.
Italian GDP fell by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of last year from the
previous three months, yielding full-year growth of just 0.2%. Economists
expected it to fare little better this year — and that was before the
coronavirus hit.
Lorenzo Codogno, head of London-based LC Macro Advisors and a former
chief economist at the Italian Treasury, said he is now forecasting a GDP drop
of between 0.5% and 1% in the first quarter, plunging Italy into its fourth
recession since 2008.
---- Milan’s central Piazza Duomo was far emptier than usual on Monday, and the cashier at the famed cake shop Iginio Massari said clients were down 50% on Sunday and even further on Monday.
Even the city’s cavernous but usually bustling courtrooms were deserted,
with the judge immediately postponing a hearing in an accounting scandal
involving British Telecom to March 9 due to the coronavirus emergency.
The city council put on hold the Mido eyewear fair that was due to run
Feb 29-March 2, while politicians called for a postponement of the April 21-26
Milan Design Week which showcases top furniture-makers and was attended last
year by almost 400,000 people.
“The situation is grave because the coronavirus is unlikely to stabilize
soon, and the economy was already sinking,” said Roberto Perotti, economics
professor at Milan’s Bocconi University. Like Codogno, he forecast the economy
would contract both in the first quarter and in 2020 as a whole.
More
Britain advises travellers self isolate after north Italy trips
February 25,
2020 / 8:16 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain said on Tuesday that people who had visited
northern Italy should self isolate if they had any flu-like symptoms.
Italy is trying to contain Europe’s worst outbreak of coronavirus so far
that flared up in the regions of Lombardy and Veneto.
“The official advice which will be formally updated at eight o’clock
this morning is going to change so that those who have been to northern Italy -
that is essentially anybody who has been to Italy north of Pisa - should, if
they have flu-like symptoms, self isolate,” Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.
“If people have been to the affected areas that the Italian government
has quarantined, then they should self isolate whether or not they have
symptoms,” Hancock said.
The country's
finance minister warned France's tourism sector has plunged following the
outbreak of the virus last month. "We have fewer tourists, of course, in
France, about 30%, 40% less than expected," Maire said.
"That's, of
course, an important impact for the French economy," he said. Tourism
represents 10% of GDP in the country and supports upwards of 3 million
jobs.
Maire said France
welcomed 2.7 million Chinese tourists last year, "It won't be the same, of
course, in 2020," he said, referring to the more than 200,000 flight
cancellations since the virus broke out in China last month.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, some of the under reported fallout from the coronavirus crisis.
While everyone has now caught on to the economic disruption in global supply
chains, the growing slump in economic activity is spreading far from global
supply chains. The vendors and temporary workers in professional sports are all
vulnerable to a growing economic hit.
Soccer: Japan postpones Cup games due to coronavirus concerns
February 25,
2020 / 5:15 AM
SAPPORO, Japan (Reuters) - Japan’s J.League says it has postponed seven
Levian Cup matches scheduled for Wednesday due to concerns about the
coronavirus outbreak and is considering postponing all domestic soccer games
through the first half of March.
The death toll from the flu-like virus, which originated in China, has
exceeded 2,600 while more than 80,000 have been infected. Japan has 850 cases,
most from a cruise ship, and has recorded four deaths.
The J.League said the decision to postpone Wednesday’s matches was part
of efforts to contain the spread of the virus.
“The J.League will make maximum efforts to prevent infection and prevent
its spread,” it said in a statement.
The
spread of the coronavirus has forced the cancelation of many sports events in
recent weeks, including Serie A soccer matches in Italy, and raised alarm bells
for Tokyo 2020 organizers.
Japanese health minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday it was still too
early to talk about cancelling the Olympics, which start on July 24, due to the
coronavirus.
Questions have risen about whether the Olympics should be moved or
canceled, with one London mayoral candidate saying London was ready to host the
games if needed.
The International Olympic Committee has said it had been advised by the
World Health Organization that there is no case for contingency plans to cancel
or relocate the Games.
Table tennis world team championships postponed over virus
Issued on: 25/02/2020 - 06:52
Table tennis's world team championships, due to take place next month in
the South Korean city of Busan, were postponed on Tuesday following a leap in
novel coronavirus cases.
The International Table Tennis Federation said the event, originally
planned for March 22-29, had been provisionally rescheduled for June 21-28
following an emergency meeting with local organisers.
South Korea's K-league had already postponed the start of the new
football season on Monday as the virus causes chaos in the country's sporting
calendar.
Volleyball, basketball and handball have taken similar measures as
confirmed cases of COVID-19 rose to 893 in South Korea, with eight deaths.
"In light of the emerging situation in Korea Republic and to best
preserve the health and safety of players, officials and fans, the Hana Bank
2020 World Team Table Tennis Championships in Busan have been postponed with
the dates of 21-28 June provisionally reserved," said an ITTF statement.
"By continuing to work hard and in close cooperation with all
stakeholders in Busan, the ITTF remains confident about putting on a great
World Championships in June."
The coronavirus has had a serious impact on sports events worldwide,
with football matches in Italy, China and Japan postponed as well as the
Formula One Chinese Grand Prix, the Hong Kong Rugby Sevens and elite women's
LPGA golf tournaments in Thailand, Singapore and China.
The Korean Volleyball Federation said it would hold matches behind
closed doors until "an improvement in the situation".
The Women's Korean Basketball League took a similar decision last week
and offered fans full refunds.
And the Korea Handball Federation cut its season short, cancelling the
playoffs and finals.
Nearly 2,700 people have died in China but the rising number of
coronavirus cases and deaths elsewhere has deepened fears about a potential
pandemic.
More than 2,000 cases and 30 deaths have been reported outside China.
'Mission: Impossible VII' halts Italy filming over virus: report
Issued on: 25/02/2020
Production on the latest film in the "Mission: Impossible"
series starring Tom Cruise has been stopped in Italy following the outbreak of
coronavirus cases, US media reported Monday.
According to entertainment specialist The Wrap, the seventh instalment
of the Paramount Pictures franchise was scheduled to shoot in Venice for three
weeks.
"Out of an abundance of caution for the safety and well-being of
our cast and crew, and efforts of the local Venetian government to halt public
gatherings in response to the threat of coronavirus, we are altering the
production plan for our three-week shoot in Venice," a Paramount
spokesperson said in a statement to The Wrap.
The spokesperson added that Cruise had not traveled to Italy, and that
crew members were allowed to return home until production started.
Italy reported its seventh death from the new coronavirus Monday, but
officials called for calm and reported a lower rise in the number of infections
after a spike over the weekend.
The number of cases now stood at 229, the head of Italy's civil
protection department Angelo Borelli said at a press conference on Monday
evening, the highest number in Europe.
In addition to "MI7," the spread of the virus has disrupted
high-profile events including Milan Fashion Week and the Venice Carnival. On
Monday evening, sports minister Vincenzo Spadafora announced that six Serie A
football matches would be played behind closed doors.
Coronavirus fears loom over giant US toy show
Issued on: 25/02/2020 - 02:46
There is no China Pavilion at this year's Toy Fair owing to the new
coronavirus outbreak, and the travails of the world's second-biggest economy
hang over the giant trade show.
Output in China -- by far the world's biggest maker of toys -- has
slowed to a trickle as the country reels from a public health crisis that has
already claimed nearly 2,600 lives and spread to dozens of countries, raising
fears of a global pandemic.
As some 25,000 toy industry officials gather this week in New York for
the largest toy show in the Americas held amongst a sea of stuffed animals,
electronics and action figures, attendees are grappling with a considerably
less cheerful topic: a deadly health crisis and its effect on the world's leading
maker of consumer goods.
The hit has been mitigated somewhat for toys because it is taking place
during a seasonal lull and not closer to the holiday shopping period, toy
executives say.
Still, there is widespread worry and talk of item shortages as soon as
this summer. China manufactures about 85 percent of US toys, according to
industry officials.
The virus "is going to have a major, major effect worldwide,"
said Isaac Larian, chief executive of MGA Entertainment, adding that he is
currently drawing from about two months of inventory for his company's
best-selling "LOL Surprise" dolls.
MGA depends on China for more than 85 percent of its production. The
company's factories in the country are operating at only about 20 percent
capacity, with many workers still away and other activity stymied by shortages
of raw materials or transportation bottlenecks, Larian said.
In his 41 years in the toy industry, the hit from the virus to supply
chain is "the worst thing I've seen," Larian said.
---- The Chinese industry itself is normally a major presence at the show, with dozens of booths that are typically cloistered together on an upper floor of the Jacob Javits Convention Center.
But the Toy Association cancelled the China Pavilion a few weeks ahead
of the show, resulting in the loss of 47 exhibitors and about 550 attendees,
said Steve Pasierb, president of the trade group.
Overall attendance is still on pace because the show has seen an uptick
in registrants who normally attend Chinese trade shows that have been
cancelled, Pasierb said.
More
Factbox: Airlines suspend China flights due to coronavirus outbreak
February 25,
2020 / 5:02 AM
(Reuters) - Airlines are suspending flights to China in
the wake of the new coronavirus outbreak.
Below are details (in alphabetical order): AIRLINES THAT HAVE CANCELLED ALL CHINA FLIGHTS
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
No update today, more
tomorrow,
February 26, 1974 Gold hits record $188 per troy ounce in Paris.The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
All higher
again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed
monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the
Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the
rising economic threat from the coronavirus crisis.
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