Baltic Dry Index. 411 -04 Brent Crude 54.05 Spot Gold 1568
Brexit Freedom Underway
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases 11/2/20 China 42,636
Deaths 1016 (Maybe.)
“Given that China is now at the heart of
many global supply chains, this will have knock-on effects around the world,”
said Neil Shearing, chief economist of Capital Economics.
Stocks, never mind the growing global economic fallout
from the coronavirus crisis, nor the collapsed Baltic Dry Index, Buy More!
Someone has to buy the top.
Yesterday we reported on China’s coronavirus figures,
which while no one believes them, least of all in Beijing, yesterday, as per
the report below raises even more questions.
According to Beijing, yesterday there were 2,748 new
confirmed cases, with another 108 new deaths, bringing the total deaths to 1,016.
But is someone under reporting the number of new deaths,
and if so why?
By my spreadsheet, if the total of new deaths was 1,016
yesterday, new cases would have been 2,467 yesterday, with another 193 new
deaths, but only if the number of new deaths the day before, reported as 97 was
correct, and the total cases of 40,171 was accurate.
I strongly suspect that neither previous number was
accurate, with the figures now getting “massaged” to show a slowing new cases
increase, with an only modestly rising death rate.
Below, the official count. You’d have to be mad to
consider traveling to China or Hong Kong at present until this coronavirus
crisis really is under control, with meaningful figures coming out of China. An
ocean cruise anyone?
China reports record daily virus death toll, but new cases fall
February 11,
2020 / 1:46 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - The death toll from the coronavirus epidemic in
mainland China soared past 1,000 on Tuesday with a record daily rise in
fatalities, although the number of new confirmed cases fell.
Another 108 new coronavirus deaths were reported, a daily record,
bringing the total number of people killed in the country to 1,016, the
National Health Commission said.
There were 2,478 new confirmed cases on the mainland on Feb. 10, down
from 3,062 on the previous day, bringing the total to 42,638.
It was the second time in the past two weeks that authorities recorded a
daily drop in new cases, but the World Health Organization (WHO) has cautioned
the spread of cases outside of China could be “the spark that becomes a bigger
fire”, warning the human race must not let the epidemic get out of control.
There are 319 cases in 24 other countries and territories, according to
WHO and Chinese health officials. So far only two deaths have been reported
outside mainland China, in Hong Kong and the Philippines.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship with 3,700 passengers and crew remained
quarantined in the Japanese port of Yokohama, with 65 more cases detected,
taking the number of confirmed cases from the Carnival Corp-owned vessel to
135.
Thailand said on Tuesday it had barred passengers from Holland America’s
cruise ship MS Westerdam from disembarking, the latest country to turn it away
amid fears of the coronavirus despite no confirmed infections aboard.
The company, owned by Miami-based Carnival Corp, had said passengers
would disembark in Bangkok on Feb. 13 and that there was no reason to believe
anybody aboard had the virus.
“I have issued orders. Permission to dock refused,” Public Health
Minister Anutin Charnvirakul said in a Facebook post.
More
Coronavirus: four more residents at Tsing Yi estate where evacuations took place are showing symptoms, but officials say don’t compare it to Amoy Gardens Sars outbreak
·
Emergency operation targeted 23 households on
Monday night, with officials still trying to contact nine more
·
But health expert says incident is different to
2003 and there is no need to panic
Four more residents of a Hong Kong public housing estate, where 23
households were evacuated in an emergency operation on Monday night to contain
the coronavirus outbreak, have developed symptoms of the illness, according to
the city’s health chief.
Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee said officials were
also trying to contact nine more households that must be moved out from Hong
Mei House on the Cheung Hong Estate, in Tsing Yi, bringing the total number of
homes to be evacuated to 32.
Health authorities launched an emergency evacuation operation on Monday
night after the city confirmed its 42nd case of coronavirus infection.
Secretary
for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan also revealed that the toilet of one
of the coronavirus patients had been altered, even as officials again insisted
the situation was different from that in Amoy Gardens, ground zero of the
deadly Sars epidemic that hit the city in 2003.
Back then, more than 100 cases were reported in block E of the Kowloon
estate, and experts later found the deadly virus had spread through the sewage
pipes outside the building, as well as in U-shaped sewage devices which had
dried up.
Such devices were supposed to be filled with water at all times for
hygiene reasons.
----
The city’s 42nd case involved a 62-year-old woman who lived in
flat 307, on the third floor of A wing in Hong Mei House, a 35-storey building.
As a 75-year-old man who lived 10 floors above in 1307 had previously
been infected, health officials expressed concern that the coronavirus could
have spread through the water or sewage pipes in the building, and ordered the
removal of all residents living in flats ending 07 on all floors.
Sophia Chan said on Tuesday that, apart from the two households that
involved confirmed infections, 32 households needed evacuation. Twenty-three of
them had been sent to the government’s four quarantine camps, while officials
were still trying to contact the remaining nine.
Among the 23 that were quarantined, three households, involving four
people, were found to have developed symptoms. They had been isolated at
Princess Margaret, Tuen Mun and Prince of Wales hospitals respectively, she
added.
Explainer: As coronavirus fails to ease, interest in 'force majeure'
February 11, 2020
/ 1:52 AM
(Reuters) - With
the coronavirus outbreak that originated in Hubei province, China, showing no
signs of abating any time soon, some companies that buy and sell goods in the
Chinese market are taking interest in the legal defence of “force majeure.”
The death toll in China from the epidemic continues to climb and now stands above 1,000, more than the SARS epidemic two decades ago, with more than 42,000 confirmed cases in China and 319 cases in 24 other countries.
WHAT IS FORCE MAJEURE?
Force majeure refers to unexpected external circumstances that prevent a party to a contract from meeting their obligations.The underlying event must be unforeseeable and not the result of actions undertaken by the party invoking force majeure. Natural disasters, strikes, and terrorist attacks can all be force majeure events.
Declaring force majeure may allow a party to a contract to avoid liability for nonperformance.
IS THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT?
Legal experts said that the coronavirus likely qualifies, but any company invoking force majeure would need to show that it is effectively impossible to perform their contractual duties as a result of the outbreak.
In other words, a company is not excused from an obligation just because
it has become more costly or time-consuming, said John Scannapieco, a
Nashville, Tennessee-based lawyer who advises U.S. companies on Chinese
transactions.
The coronavirus is “not carte blanche to say force majeure,” said
Scannapieco, a shareholder at law firm Baker Donelson. “You have look at the
facts and circumstances.”
HOW IS FORCE MAJEURE INVOKED?
Cross-border deals typically include clauses that allow for non-performance during force majeure events, said Vanessa Miller, a U.S. lawyer at Foley & Lardner. These clauses are sometimes “cut and paste” and “not reviewed as carefully as they ought to be,” Miller said.Force majeure clauses rarely mention diseases, but more frequently provide relief in the event of unforeseen “acts of government,” Miller said. Chinese authorities have ordered lockdowns and closed factories in the wake of the coronavirus, so the “act of government” language could allow some firms to invoke force majeure, she said.
More
What’s the coronavirus’ impact on the world? Economists get creative in finding data to measure the outbreak’s effects
·
Store closures, flight-tracking websites,
factory shutdowns and the latest numbers on infections and fatalities are just
some of the high-frequency data points economists are scouring for clues on the
hit to growth
·
The virus has sickened more than 40,000 people
around the world, almost 99 per cent in mainland China, killing 910 people with
3,342 recoveries
It’s a mad scramble for the best data: Economists are grappling with
ways to gauge the real-time impact of the coronavirus on the world economy,
even as the outbreak continues to confound forecasters.
Store closures, flight-tracking websites, factory shutdowns and the
latest numbers on infections and fatalities are just some of the high-frequency
data points economists are scouring for clues on the hit to growth.
“To track the impact of the virus on the global economy, we have had to
look at indicators I have never looked at before in my 25 years of doing
macroeconomic forecasting,” said Torsten Slok, chief economist for Deutsche
Bank.
We asked a group of economists how they’re tracking the fallout. Here’s
a snapshot of their responses:
Torsten Slok, chief economist for Deutsche Bank
Understanding the impact of the virus is all about identifying the
transmission channels through which it will impact the global economy, and
those include: global tourism, supply chain disruptions, Chinese consumer
spending, lower commodity prices, and wealth effects from global lower stock
prices, with the last effect probably being more important than the others
combined. Put differently, the level of global anxiety and the impact of the
“fear factor” in markets is probably what we should worry most about.
Rob Carnell, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at ING Groep NV
My daily routine has changed: I now check the latest World Health
Organisation situation report and supplement that with Worldometer’s
coronavirus count.
Most important for me now are the new cases of non-China infection, as
these are now either from encounters with Wuhan/China tourists, evacuated
residents from Wuhan or community transmission. It is really the first and
third of these that may shed light on whether this virus is going to go global
and, therefore, if we have to take a much dimmer view on what impact this will
have on the global economy than just factoring how many fewer tourists will
arrive in Thailand.
Ben Emons, managing director of macro strategy at Medley Global Advisors
I expect the first signs of the virus impact on local economies to show
up between February 20 and February 25, when Taiwan export orders, Australia
PMI, Thailand and Hong Kong import data are released. A change in product
inventories from Chinese manufacturers, as well as imports by major auto,
retail and durable goods companies, is possibly a signal the production
shutdown is affecting the supply chain.
A second gauge is shipping and freight rates to and from China. Lastly,
imports/exports of materials, textile, and oil products.
More
Coronavirus prompts Sony, NTT and Intel to join Barcelona congress exodus
February 10,
2020 / 10:29 AM
BARCELONA (Reuters) - Japanese wireless
carrier NTT Docomo (9437.T),
Sony Corp (6758.T)
and California-based chip giant Intel Corp (INTC.O) pulled out of the
Mobile World Congress (MWC) in Barcelona on Monday because of the coronavirus
outbreak.
Amazon (AMZN.O), South Korea’s LG
Electronics (066570.KS),
Swedish equipment maker Ericsson (ERICb.ST) and U.S.
chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O)
have already withdrawn from MWC, which had more than 100,000 visitors and
upwards of 2,400 exhibitors in 2019.
MWC, due to take place on Feb 24-27, is the telecom industry’s biggest
annual gathering, with companies spending millions on stands and hospitality to
fill their order books.
Barcelona’s economy got a boost of around 470 million euros ($515
million) last year from the event, its organizer the GSMA estimated. The GSMA
had no immediate comment.
Gremi d’Hotels de Barcelona, the city’s main hotels association, said
coronavirus concerns had resulted in cancellations but it was too early to
quantify the impact on overall bookings.
More
China says 27 foreigners in the country have been infected with coronavirus, two dead
February 10,
2020 / 7:54 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s Foreign Ministry said that 27 foreigners in
the country have been confirmed infected with the new coronavirus as of Monday
morning, and two had died.
An American died on Feb. 6 and a Japanese died on Feb. 8, ministry
spokesman Geng Shuang told a daily news briefing in Beijing.
Three of the cases have been discharged, he added.
"There are three kinds of
lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Mark Twain.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more fallout from just in time
supply chains relying on China. Over priced stocks anyone flying on a wing and
a prayer? I wonder how WeWork China is doing?
Nissan to temporarily halt production at Japan factory due to coronavirus -Nikkei
February 10,
2020 / 11:37 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) will temporarily
halt production at its plant in Kyushu, southwestern Japan, due to the
coronavirus, the Nikkei newspaper said on Monday, as the outbreak starts to
strain the global supply chain. Nissan, the first automaker to halt production at a plant in Japan because of the outbreak, was finding it increasingly difficult to procure parts from China, the Nikkei said.
The stoppage could impact production of around 3,000 vehicles, it said.
Nissan will halt two production lines at the Kyushu plant from Feb. 14, the Nikkei said, underlining the extent to which manufacturers in the world’s third-largest economy are reliant on China for supplies.
A spokesman for Nissan was not immediately available for comment.
Nissan’s production in Kyushu was around 434,000 vehicles in the 2018 financial year, the Nikkei said, with about half of that for the domestic market.
Nissan will halt another line, one that makes mainly cars for export, on Feb.17, the Nikkei said.
The coronavirus outbreak - declared a global health emergency by the World Health Organization - has disrupted Chinese manufacturing and that is having an effect on plants abroad.
In South Korea, Hyundai Motor (005380.KS), Kia Motors (000270.KS) and Renault subsidiary RSM have all announced closures citing disruption to supply of parts from China. [nL4N2A41I5]
Volkswagen postpones reopening of some Chinese plants amid coronavirus spread
By Olivia
Bugault Published: Feb 10, 2020 1:35
a.m. ET
Volkswagen AG said Saturday that it has postponed
production at some of its plants in China as the deadly coronavirus continues
to spread.Saic Volkswagen — a joint venture between the German car maker VOW, +0.09% and SAIC Motor Corp. 600104, +0.71% — has postponed the production at its factories until Feb. 17, Volkswagen said. Only one of its plants, in Shanghai, will restart earlier, on Feb. 10.
FAW-Volkswagen, a joint venture between FAW Group and Volkswagen, will resume production in China on Feb. 10, except for its site in Tianjin which will resume one week later.
“We are working hard on getting back to normal production processes, facing challenges due to the nationwide re-starting of supply chains as well as limited travel options for our production employees,” Volkswagen said.
Airbnb suspends bookings in Beijing for rest of February
February 10,
2020 / 6:19 AM
(Reuters) - Airbnb said on Monday it has suspended bookings in Beijing
until Feb. 29 as death toll from the coronavirus outbreak in China exceeded
900.
“In light of the novel coronavirus outbreak and guidance from local
authorities for the short-term rental industry during this public health
emergency, bookings of all listings in Beijing with check-in from 7 February
2020 to 29 February 2020 have been suspended,” the short-term home rental
company said in an email statement.
The decision was only for Beijing, a spokesperson for Airbnb China said,
adding that the company evaluates the situation and works to comply with
guidance from local authorities.
Food prices are soaring in China because of the coronavirus and swine fever
Updated 1343 GMT (2143 HKT) February 10,
2020
Hong Kong (CNN Business)The coronavirus outbreak is driving up the cost of food — and
almost everything else in China — adding to the pressure on household budgets.
China's
consumer price inflation hit 5.4% in January, according to the country's
National Bureau of Statistics on Monday. Prices rose last month at their
fastest rate since October 2011, when China was battling
to control months of soaring inflation.
Food,
which makes up nearly a third of spending by Chinese consumers, is spiking the
most. Pork — a mainstay in the Chinese diet that is already under pressure
because of a devastating pig disease — skyrocketed a
staggering 116% compared to a year ago. Vegetables were 17% more expensive.
Other
items saw modest price rises by comparison: Health care was 2.3% more
expensive, for example, while clothing prices rose 0.6%.
The
statistics bureau acknowledged the role coronavirus played in causing prices to
surge. In a statement, it attributed the increase to the outbreak and to the
Lunar New Year holiday, which was observed in January this year rather than
February, as it was in 2019.
Economists at Citi blamed the price surge
on the way the coronavirus has disrupted production and transport links.
Dozens of Chinese cities have been on lockdown to prevent the spread of
the virus, which has killed more than 900 people and infected at least 40,000,
mostly in mainland China. Many factories and businesses were also shut down as
government officials extended the holiday.
Hoarding is also a factor, according to analysts from Capital Economics.
People are rushing to buy basic necessities, fearful of how long they may be
stuck in their homes, state-owned media outlet Xinhua reported last week.
Analysts at Nomura expect inflation to taper off a little in February,
adding that the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday distorted the figures
somewhat. But they said they expect the coronavirus outbreak to keep the
consumer price index above 4% because of hoarding by households and supply
shocks attributable to the lockdowns.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Voyager 2 comes back online, 11.5 billion miles from home
Loz Blain February 09, 2020
Plenty can go wrong when you're floating
through interstellar space, billions of miles from Earth, running on a
radioisotope thermoelectric generator and coming up on 43 years since the last
time anyone laid a spanner on you. Last week, Voyager
2 shut itself down into a safe mode after an unexplained delay in a
calibration maneuver caused two high-powered systems to come on at the same
time, overdrawing the power supply.
Now, NASA has announced that it's turned Voyager 2's scientific instruments back on and resumed collection of scientific data. The rest of the craft is still under review, and the team is slowly running diagnostics to determine when everything else can be switched back on.
Such are the foibles of working with humanity's earliest interstellar machines, particularly given that the twin Voyager spacecraft left Earth back in 1977, and their incredible journey thus far and the observations they have sent back to us from the outer reaches of the solar system have been achieved using technology from before the age of the personal computer.
These kinds of problems will eventually become more common. Their power
supplies relies on the decay of densely-packed radioactive plutonium oxide
spheres, which at the time of launch were able to supply a constant 470 watts
of power. That figure has been slowly dropping over time as the fuel has
decayed; its half-life of 87.7 years means Voyager 2 is losing about 4 watts a
year right now.
By mid-2019, power was down to about 280 watts, and NASA decided to turn
off one of the onboard heaters, which was designed to keep its cosmic ray
subsystem instrument within its optimal operating conditions. Remarkably, that
system has continued to operate despite dropping to temperatures well below
what it was ever tested for, and despite the reduced power available, Voyager
is still sending back data from five instruments, many years after anyone
expected we'd still be in touch with it. The original Voyager team did an
exceptional job on this machine, building in failsafes like this safe mode that
have kept it in terrific condition.
At some point, it'll no longer have enough power to heat up its own fuel
lines, and it'll lose the ability to aim its antenna back at Earth to speak or
listen. Then, off it'll soar into the vastness of interstellar space as a
lonely record of our civilization. That'll do, Voyager 2, that'll do. You've
done us proud.
Statistics don't lie but liars use
statistics.
Mark Twain.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 28,256 +97 Up. NASDAQ: 9,151 +152 Up.
SP500: 3,226 +130 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take.
The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a
month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally,
made all the more urgent by the rising economic threat from the coronavirus
crisis.
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