Baltic Dry Index. 415 -16 Brent Crude 54.47 Spot Gold 1570
Brexit now in effect.
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
The USA v EU trade war started October
18. Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases 9/2/20 China 37,601 Deaths 814 (Maybe.)
The head of the Beijing
Municipal Bureau of Justice, Li Fuying, told reporters that people deliberately
concealing contacts or refusing isolation could be punished with death.
With coronavirus events happening fast,
I decided to do a Saturday noon update.
The official numbers are just that, the
official numbers, but announcing “that people deliberately concealing contacts
or refusing isolation could be punished with death,” suggests that Beijing
knows of a far bigger problem underway.
Whether Beijing has accurate other
figures, is open to question. My guess, and it is only a guess, is that they
have far higher figures of both cases and deaths, but they’re not accurate
either. Just more accurate than the official figures.
Below, Saturday’s noon update. Next week’s
return to work across China, should give us a much better idea, of the coming
hit to China’s economy, and with it the hit to the global economy.
By the end of the month we should know
if the return to work has increased the spread and size of China’s epidemic.
As China returns to work, it is hardly business as usual
February 8, 2020 / 8:41 AM
SHENZHEN, China/BEIJING (Reuters) - The
Chinese economy will sputter towards normal on Monday after the coronavirus
outbreak forced an extended holiday, although numerous stores and factories
will remain shut and many white collar employees will continue working from
home.
The usually week-long Lunar New Year holiday was extended by 10 days in much of China amid mounting alarm over an epidemic that as of Saturday morning had killed 722 people.
Huge cities including Beijing and Shanghai seem like ghost towns, with shops and restaurants closed or empty, and as containment measures including transportation curbs are enforced in many parts of the country. Some cities are keeping schools closed and restrictions on movements remain.
Many employers in the southern technology hub of Shenzhen are taking precautions to prevent workers from returning in large crowds, asking those who have travelled from elsewhere to self-quarantine for up to 14 days.
Calls to the hotlines of an NGO serving migrant workers in nearby city of Guangzhou have multiplied in recent days.
“People are asking, ‘what if my factory hasn’t put enough safety measures in place? Will there be a notice suspending work again? How do I get in to work if roads are sealed off?’” said Ice Huang, a spokeswoman for the Inno Community Development Organisation.
Apple Inc (AAPL.O) said on Friday its retail stores in China would stay closed, even as it worked toward opening its corporate offices and contact centres.
Apple supplier Foxconn (2317.TW) plans only to “gradually” restart its factories with a view to resuming full production in late February, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
While in Shanghai, the city government said Tesla’s (TSLA.O) factory would reopen on Monday.
The toll on China’s already-slowing economy has been heavy, with Goldman Sachs cutting its first quarter GDP target to 4% from 5.6% previously and saying an even deeper hit is possible.
“It’s certainly not going to be a return to normal next week,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics in Singapore. “The longer this disruption continues the higher the risk it affects employment and the higher the risk of a much bigger hit on the economy,” he said.
In Shenzhen, businesses looking to reopen were required to check the recent travel history of all staff and implement temperature checks and prevention measures such as providing masks. Similar guidelines were in place elsewhere.
More
U.S. citizen died from coronavirus in China's Wuhan
February 8, 2020 / 5:13 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - A 60-year old U.S. citizen diagnosed with coronavirus died at
Jinyintan Hospital in China’s Wuhan on Feb. 6, a U.S. embassy spokesman in
Beijing said on Saturday, in what appeared to be the first death of an American
from the outbreak.
“We offer
our sincerest condolences to the family on their loss,” the spokesman told
Reuters. “Out of the respect for the family’s privacy, we have no further
comment.”
As of noon
Thursday, there had been 19 cases of foreigners infected with the coronavirus,
of which two had been discharged from hospital and 17 were being quarantined
and treated, Hua Chunying, spokeswoman at the Chinese foreign ministry, told
reporters at a regular briefing last Thursday.
Japanese man hospitalized with pneumonia in Wuhan dies, coronavirus suspected
February 8, 2020 / 4:54 AM
TOKYO
(Reuters) - A Japanese man hospitalized with pneumonia in the Chinese city of
Wuhan, the epicentre of a coronavirus outbreak, has died, Japan’s foreign
ministry said in a statement on Saturday.
The man in
his sixties was suspected of having been infected with the coronavirus but due
to difficulties in diagnosing the disease the cause of death was given as viral
pneumonia, the foreign ministry said citing Chinese medical authorities.
The man is
potentially the first Japanese to have died of the disease, as a foreign
ministry official said the government does not know of any Japanese that have
died from the coronavirus epidemic, which has killed more than 700 people in
mainland China and infected over 34,000.
The death in
Wuhan came as the number of passengers infected with the virus from a cruise
liner quarantined in Japanese port of Yokohama jumped to 64 on Saturday.
The virus
has spread around the world, with 320 cases now in 27 countries and regions
outside mainland China, a Reuters tally of official statements showed.
Thailand reports seven new coronavirus cases - health ministry
February 8, 2020 / 5:59 AM
BANGKOK
(Reuters) - Thailand’s public health ministry reported seven new cases of the
coronavirus on Saturday, including three Thais and four Chinese.
The new
cases brought the total reported in the country to 32.
Five Britons contract coronavirus in French ski resort
February 8, 2020 / 9:59 AM
PARIS
(Reuters) - Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with
the coronavirus in France, after staying in the same ski chalet and coming into
contact with a person who had been in Singapore, Health Minister Agnes Buzyn
said on Saturday.
The total
number of people infected with the virus in France has now reached 11.
Buzyn said
the group of people newly infected with the virus were not in a serious
condition.
They had
formed “a cluster, a grouping around one original case” after staying in the
same chalet, in the Contamine Monjoie resort in Savoie in eastern France.
“That original case was brought to our
attention last night, it is a British national who had returned from Singapore
where he had stayed between January 20 and 23, and he arrived in France on
January 24 for four days,” Buzyn said.
More
Latest coronavirus study implicates fecal transmission
Issued on:
08/02/2020 - 00:30
Diarrhea may
be a secondary path of transmission for the novel coronavirus, scientists said
Friday following the publication of the latest study reporting patients with
abdominal symptoms and loose stool.
The primary
path is believed to be virus-laden droplets from an infected person's cough,
though researchers in early cases have said they focused heavily on patients
with respiratory symptoms and may have overlooked those linked to the digestive
tract.
A total of
14 out of 138 patients (10 percent) in a Wuhan hospital who were studied in the
new paper by Chinese authors in the Journal of the American Medical Association
(JAMA) initially presented with diarrhea and nausea one or two days prior to
development of fever and labored breathing.
The first US
patient diagnosed with 2019-nCoV also experienced loose bowel movements for two
days and the virus was subsequently detected in his stool, and there have been
other such cases in China documented in the Lancet, albeit infrequently.
"Importantly,
2019-nCoV has been reported elsewhere in the feces of patients with atypical
abdominal symptoms, similar to SARS which was also shed in urine, suggesting a fecal
transmission route which is highly transmissible," William Keevil, a
professor of environmental healthcare at the University of Southampton said in
a comment to the UK's Science Media Centre.
The
possibility is not totally surprising to scientists, given that the new virus
belongs to the same family as SARS.
Fecal
transmission of SARS was implicated in sickening hundreds in Hong Kong's Amoy
Gardens housing estate in 2003. A rising plume of warm air originating in
bathrooms contaminated several apartments and was transported by wind to
adjacent buildings in the complex.
Based on the
literature, "The 2019-nCoV virus found in stool may be transmitted through
fecal spread," added Jiayu Liao, a bioengineer at the University of
California, Riverside.
But, he
added, "We still do not know how long this virus can survive outside the
body -- HIV can only survive roughly 30 minutes outside the body -- and what
temperature range the 2019-nCoV is sensitive to."
Fecal spread
could present new challenges to the virus's containment, but is more likely to
be a problem inside hospitals, which can become "amplifiers" of
epidemics, said David Fisman, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto.
More
Cruise line bans China citizens; Outrage as doctor who sounded coronavirus alarm dies
February 6, 2020 / 1:14 AM / Updated 7
hours ago
BEIJING/SHANGHAI,
Feb 7 (Reuters) - A major cruise line on Friday took the extraordinary step of
banning citizens of China regardless of when they were last there, while there
was sorrow and anger over the coronavirus death of a doctor from Wuhan who had
been reprimanded for sounding an early warning about the disease.
The death of
Li Wenliang, 34, came as President Xi Jinping reassured the United States and
the World Health Organization (WHO) of transparency and maximum effort to combat
the virus.
---- After two days in which Hubei reported fewer new cases of coronavirus and deaths, spurring some optimism, there was an uptick on Friday.
The Hubei
health commission website reported 82 new deaths and 2,841 new cases in the
province, taking the mainland China totals to more than 700 deaths and over
34,000 infections
---- Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd issued a statement on Friday saying: “Any guest or crewmen traveling from, to, or through mainland China, Hong Kong or Macau less than 15 days prior to their sailing will be unable to board any of our ships.”
But it did
not stop there. It also said, “Any guests holding a Chinese, Hong Kong or Macau
passport, regardless of when they were there last, will not be allowed to board
our ships.”
More
“However, as bad as things
were, the worst was yet to come, for germs would kill more people than bullets.
By the time that last fever broke and the last quarantine sign came down, the
world had lost 3-5% of its population.”
The 1918 Spanish Flu
Pandemic: The History and Legacy of the World’s Deadliest Influenza Outbreak
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 28,256
+97 Up. NASDAQ: 9,151 +152 Up. SP500: 3,226 +130 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the still increasing coronavirus crisis
well said kep update us more. http://raimosofamityville.com/contact
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