Baltic Dry Index. 421 +03 Brent Crude 55.73 Spot Gold 1574
Brexit Freedom
Underway
Trump’s Nuclear
China Tariffs Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases
13/2/20 China 60,375 Deaths 1369 (Maybe.)
According to the plan, Hubei
Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised
the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to
the new diagnosis classification. In order to be
consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces
across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of
clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.
Today, a harsh coronavirus
reality arrives. China’s rigged figures which triggered the latest fantasy
stock market bubble, are far from the truth. Hubei Province starts to come
clean. Asia travel anyone?
Expect a whole new
wave of event cancellations and postponements to follow. Expect a giant
downturn in global consumer spending to follow. We are entering the first real global
pandemic in the fiat currency age of gargantuan unrepayable corporate and
consumer debt.
Jump in new coronavirus cases stymies stock rally
February 13, 2020
/ 1:06 AM
SINGAPORE
(Reuters) - Asian stock markets wobbled on Thursday while safe-havens such as
the yen, gold and bonds rose as the number of new coronavirus cases and deaths
in the outbreak’s epicenter jumped.
China’s Hubei province, where the virus is believed to have originated, reported 242 new deaths, double the previous day’s toll, and confirmed 14,840 new cases on Feb. 12.
The rise in the number of cases, which came as officials adopted a new methodology for counting infections, is a sevenfold increase from a day earlier.
It was not immediately clear how the new methods affected the results, nor why the death toll rose so sharply, but it seemed to dash hopes that the virus’ spread might be slowing.
E-mini S&P 500 futures turned from positive to fall 0.3% ESc1. Dow Jones futures fell by the same margin YMc1, suggesting a pause in Wall Street’s strong rally.
Ten-year U.S. Treasuries fell about 3 basis points to 1.607% US10YT=RR, the yen strengthened past 110 per dollar JPY= and a rally in Asian currencies against the dollar halted.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS was steady in morning trade but the news knocked the week’s momentum from stock markets.
“The slowdown (in cases) was the key driver of the rally in growth-exposed assets,” said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
“A lot of people leapt to the conclusion that we might have seen a peak...the reversal of what appeared to be good news is enough to have people scrambling for the exits.”
---- Overnight, markets had taken comfort from the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) emergency program head describing the apparent slowdown in the epidemic’s spread as “very reassuring.”
Yet WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus had also warned that it should
be viewed with extreme caution. “This outbreak could still go in any
direction,” he said.
More than 1,300 people have died from the epidemic in China and the
total number of cases in Hubei province now stands at 48,206.
Even before the rise in cases, economists were turning more bearish on
the likely hit to China’s growth as factories idle and supply chains are
upended.
Citi on Wednesday again downgraded its 2020 GDP forecast for China to
5.3%. The bank had forecast it to be 5.8% in its January outlook, before
cutting it to 5.5% two weeks ago.
Morgan Stanley believes a gradual, rather than sharp recovery is the
most likely scenario. That all bodes ill for regional economies and has weighed
on Asian currencies and commodities.
More
Coronavirus death toll leaps in China's Hubei province, party bosses sacked
February 13, 2020
/ 12:52 AM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- The Chinese province at the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak reported a
record rise in the death toll on Thursday under a new diagnostic method, and
Beijing sacked two local leaders after criticisim of their handling of the crisis.
Health officials in Hubei province said 242 people had died from the
flu-like virus on Wednesday, the fastest rise in the daily count since the
pathogen was identified in December, and bringing the total number of deaths in
the province to 1,310. The previous highest daily rise in the toll was 103 on
Feb. 10.
Reports in state-run media said provincial Communist Party boss Jiang
Chaoliang had been sacked as secretary of the Hubei Provincial Committee, and
Ma Guoqiang had been removed as party chief in the provincial capital Wuhan.
The reports did not state a reason for the dismissals, but the two are
the most high-profile Chinese officials to date to be removed from duty
following the coronavirus outbreak that began in Wuhan late last yet.
“Thank you Communist Party. It should have been done earlier,” Wuhan
resident Wang You told Reuters.
The spike in the death toll came a day after China had reported its
lowest number of new cases in two weeks, bolstering a forecast by the country’s
senior medical adviser that the epidemic could end by April.
Another 14,840 cases were reported in Hubei alone on Thursday, from
2,015 nationwide a day earlier, after provincial officials started using
computerised tomography (CT) scans to look for signs of the virus.
Hubei had previously only allowed infections to be confirmed by RNA
tests, which can take days to process. RNA, or ribonucleic acid, carries
genetic information allowing for identification of organisms like viruses.
Using quicker CT scans that reveal lung infections would help patients
receive treatment as soon as possible and improve their chances of recovery,
the Hubei health commission said.
----
Asian stock markets wobbled and the safe-havens of the
Japanese yen, gold and bonds rose after the new Hubei numbers dashed hopes the
epidemic was stabilising and the Chinese economy could bounce back quickly.
[MKTS/GLOB]
More
Funding the coronavirus fight: Chinese companies sell US$4.1 billion in bonds to shore up finances as economy falters
·
Legend Holdings, China State Shipbuilding,
Central China Real Estate are among the borrowers that are tapping the capital
market with “anti-epidemic bonds” amid virus outbreak
·
The Chinese bonds are among the US$9 billion of
offshore deals by Asian borrowers signed since end of January
Published: 1:15pm, 13 Feb, 2020
Chinese companies have sold US$4.1 billion worth
of bonds to strengthen their finances against a stalling business environment,
taking advantage of the government’s order to relax funding approvals to help
the nation overcome its worst public health crisis since 2003.
Legend Holdings, China International
Capital Corporation (CICC) and China State Shipbuilding are among the Chinese
borrowers that have sold new debt in recent weeks, continuing a record-breaking
US$9 billion start to the year for bond issuance across Asia.
The
fundraising by Chinese companies adds to the 6.8 trillion yuan (US$974 billion)
of corporate bonds that are scheduled to mature this year, a second high-water
mark after last year’s record of 7.6 trillion yuan, according to Bloomberg’s
data.
The
health crisis in China
has forced the closure of shops and theme parks, severely curtailed foot
traffic at the outlets that remain open and disrupted parts of the global
supply chain. As a result, China’s 2020 economic growth pace is widely expected
to slow to less than 6 per cent as the virus buffets an economy already bruised
by its year-long trade war with the United States.
“Some of these companies are adopting a defensive stance, taking money now as
they don’t know what will happen down the road and many have refinancing needs
later on in the year,” said Tim Fang, head of global markets at Hong
Kong-headquartered investment bank AMTD Group who has been busy since the Lunar
New Year holiday ended, sealing multiple deals for corporate Chinese clients.
Beijing has also swung into action
helping to make sure borrowers get access to the liquidity they need at
potentially a lower cost. China’s top economic planner the National Development
and Reform Commission (NDRC) has said that some offshore borrowers can extend
their issuance quota by up to six months.
State-backed Chinese companies are heeding the
call and are flocking to issue “anti-epidemic bonds” to help fund the public
health campaign. Many of them are not priced yet.
Among them, Agricultural Development
Bank of China (ADBC) raised 1.5 billion yuan on February 11 partly to tackle
the coronavirus outbreak. The state-owned bank said demand for the bond from
investors including central banks at one point hit 8.3 times the offer size,
Chinese debt has typically made up
roughly half of all the new regional G3 debt sold offshore in recent years.
As well as potentially disrupting an
orderly plan for refinancing, the coronavirus known as 2019-nCoV originated in
the Hubei provincial capital of Wuhan, throwing into disarray how companies
raise capital from investors. Chinese executives who usually travel to
financial hubs such as Hong Kong and Singapore to tout their bonds are facing
lengthy quarantines.
Instead, they are jumping on
conference calls to get deals done. Far East Horizon, a Hong Kong-based
financial services group, is among those using conference calls to sell its
debt to prospective investors.
To be sure, the virus has tempered
the blistering pace of capital raising throughout January, when even high-yield
borrowers were able to stretch out the tenor of their debt. The volume of new
G3 bonds sold across Asia excluding Japan hit US$51.9 billion in January across
90 deals, the highest monthly volume since records began in 1995, according to
data from Dealogic which excludes short-term and money-market bonds.
Asian issuers, including Chinese
borrowers, have sold US$9 billion worth of G3 bonds since January 29, Dealogic
said.
“Investors have been more
discerning,” said Ed Tsui, head of Deutsche Bank’s Asia-Pacific debt syndicate,
who was busy in the office. He said investment grade, household names have been
particularly popular with investors.
Still, even a few high yield issuers
have sneaked through and been lapped up by investors when they hit the right
note, such as the US$300 million of notes with 364-day tenor at a 7 per cent
yield sold by Central China Real Estate.
“This kind of instrument checks the
boxes,” said Tsui. Most investors consider Chinese property developers big and
strong enough to weather any kind of storm in a year and junk bonds often offer
attractive yields. For developers, maturity within a year means that they do
not need high-level regulatory approval to quickly raise cash offshore.
While smoothing out cash flow is at
the top of every chief financial officers' mind in the face of crises, they are
also mindful of when they will have to pay back their existing debt to
investors.
Credit rating agency Moody’s
estimates the developers' that it keeps tabs on have around US$51.3 billion of
onshore bonds and US$27.6 billion of offshore bonds maturing or subject to put
options within the coming year. Hangzhou-based Xinhu Zhongbao has around US$600
million of debt coming due in March.
Chinese property developers took
advantage of the tailwind in capital markets at the start of the year and have
issued US$17.6 billion of offshore bonds so far this year, said Dealogic.
China Evergrande Group, one of the
most leveraged among Chinese developers, issued US$6 billion worth of debt in
January, roughly equal to a typical monthly average for the entire sector.
But if the virus crisis deepens, some
highly leveraged borrowers may still be caught out.
“Developers with weak liquidity and
high refinancing needs will be more vulnerable as weakening cash flow could
hinder their debt servicing capabilities,” said Moody’s analysts.
WHO says first coronavirus vaccine could be ready in 18 months
Feb. 11, 2020 /
7:58 PM
Feb. 11 (UPI) -- The World Health Organization said Tuesday it hopes to develop a
vaccine for the coronavirus within 18 months.WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said the vaccine for the virus, which the organization dubbed Covid-19, will take time to develop and said countries will have to make do with available resources in the meantime.
"The development of vaccines and therapeutics is one important part of the research agenda. But it's not only one part. They will take time to develop -- but in the meantime, we are not defenseless," he said. "The first vaccine could be ready in 18 months, so we have to do everything today using the available weapons to fight this virus."
---- The city of Wuhan, in Hubei province, announced new restrictions on citizens Tuesday, allowing only one member of a household to make one shopping trip every three days while also quarantining entire buildings in some cases.
Beijing also called on countries that have placed a restriction on travel to China in an effort to curb the spread of the virus to restore normal relations for the benefit of the global economy.
The Chinese government said Tuesday that businesses have faced worker shortages, transport disruption and a lack of medical supplies as they attempt to return to operation in the wake of the outbreak.
"We have also noticed difficulties in fully resuming work," Cong Liang, a senior official at China's National Development and Reform Commission said.
Dozens of cities were placed on lockdown at the end of last month and many factories and other businesses were shut down to prevent the spread of the virus.
Singapore has also anticipated a drop in tourism as the country has reported 45 cases of the virus.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/11/WHO-says-first-coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-18-months/4781581462650/?ts_=8
Coronavirus outbreak 'just beginning' outside China, says expert
February 12,
2020 / 11:49 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The coronavirus epidemic may be
peaking in China where it was first detected in the central city of Wuhan but
it is just beginning in the rest of the world and likely to spread, a global
expert on infectious diseases said on Wednesday.
The Chinese government’s senior medical adviser has said the disease is
hitting a peak in China and may be over by April. He said he was basing the
forecast on mathematical modelling, recent events and government action.
Dale Fisher, chair of the Global Outbreak Alert & Response Network
that is coordinated by the World Health Organization, said that predicted “time
course” may well be true if the virus is allowed to run free in Wuhan.
“It’s fair to say that’s really what we are seeing,” he told Reuters in
an interview. “But it has spread to other places where it’s the beginning of
the outbreak. In Singapore, we are at the beginning of the outbreak.”
The flu-like virus has killed more than 1,100 people and infected nearly
45,000, predominantly in China and mostly in Wuhan.
Singapore has reported 50 coronavirus cases, one of the highest tallies
outside China, including mounting evidence of local transmission.
“I’d be pretty confident though that eventually every country will have
a case,” Fisher said.
Asked why there were so many cases in Singapore, he said there were
comparatively more tests being conducted on the island.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-singapore-interview/coronavirus-outbreak-just-beginning-outside-china-says-expert-idUKKBN2061L7
‘It’s the pneumonia everybody in China knows about’ – but many deaths will never appear in official coronavirus figures
·
Wuhan’s overburdened health workers are unable
to confirm many of those who died were suffering from Covid-19, which means
they will not show up in official figures
·
The families of those who die at home are also
denied the comfort of being able to make proper funeral arrangements
Phoebe Zhang Published: 10:00pm, 12 Feb, 2020
Retired Wuhan factory worker Wei Junlan had always
been in good health, but around two weeks after developing the first signs of a
cough and fever, the 63-year-old was dead from what doctors suspect was the new
coronavirus.
But her death on January 21 will not show up in
official statistics about the outbreak – her death certificate listed her cause
of death only as “heavy pneumonia”.
Her nephew Jerry Shang said she had not been
tested for the disease, but the doctor said her symptoms – including a lung
infection, fever and increasing weakness – closely matched those of Covid-19,
the disease caused by the virus.
By the end she was unable to walk, and the last
the family saw of her was when she was being wheeled into the emergency room.
The doctor told the family: “It’s the pneumonia that everybody around the
country knows about.”
Local doctors have heard of many such cases and
many Wuhan residents have complained that family members cannot get a proper
diagnosis because frontline hospitals are overwhelmed in the face of high
patient numbers and a shortage of supplies and testing kits.
In other news, is it all over for the Softbank “business model?” Will Covid-19 kill off WeWork in 2020.
SoftBank's Vision Fund 2 stalls as key backers opt out
February 12,
2020 / 12:58 PM
DUBAI/RIYADH (Reuters) - Big investors who are critical to
SoftBank Group’s plans for a second massive technology investment fund are
refusing to take part unless the first $100 billion (77 billion pounds) Vision
Fund can turn around its performance, sources familiar with the talks told
Reuters.
SoftBank chairman Masayoshi Son on Wednesday acknowledged the lack of
commitments for Vision Fund 2, but vowed to forge ahead with his investment
strategy using SoftBank money.
That approach could prove difficult in the wake of news last week that
activist investor Elliott Management has built up a stake of nearly 3% in
SoftBank and will pressure the company to spend its cash on share buybacks.
The first Vision Fund lost $2.5 billion in the quarter ended December,
SoftBank reported Wednesday, largely as a result of a disastrous bet on
office-sharing company WeWork.
Three sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters the two biggest
backers of the Vision Fund - Abu Dhabi’s state fund Mubadala and Saudi Arabia’s
PIF sovereign wealth fund - had declined to commit to Vision Fund 2, though
some conversations were ongoing.
One of those sources said iPhone-maker Foxconn, which Son said last year
had committed in principle to the new fund, was also pulling out.
Mubadala, PIF and Foxconn did not immediately respond to requests for
comment.
Son upended start-up tech investing with the Vision Fund, making massive
bets on scores of unproven companies in sectors ranging from ride-hailing to
real estate. The fund now has stakes in 88 companies, but many of them have
shown disappointing results, forcing the fund to write down their value.
SoftBank says it has invested $74.6 billion in the 88 companies, and
according to its internal valuations those investments are now worth $79.8
billion. The unusual structure of the Vision Fund also requires interest
payments of 7% to some of its investors.
The sources said Mubadala was continuing discussions with SoftBank but
was unlikely to commit to the new fund in the foreseeable future.
Morehttps://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-softbank-group-results-vision-fund/softbanks-vision-fund-2-stalls-as-key-backers-opt-out-idUKKBN2061T4?il=0
Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.
John Kenneth Galbraith
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, the start of a wave of
global cancelled events and projects. Since the stock markets love bad news,
buy more. Never mind that people are losing their jobs, prospects, and consumer
spending power. The “Drunken Sailor” Fed has everyone’s backs, covered, right?
What could possibly go wrong?
Chinese Grand Prix postponed due to deadly coronavirus outbreak
Updated 1304 GMT (2104 HKT) February 12,
2020
(CNN)The 2020 Chinese Grand Prix has been postponed due to the deadly
coronavirus outbreak, Formula One announced on Wednesday.
The decision to cancel the race weekend in Shanghai, which was scheduled
for April 17-19, was taken jointly by F1 and the sports governing body, the
FIA, after the Juss Sports Group -- the Chinese Grand Prix promoter --
officially requested its postponement.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has declared the coronavirus
outbreak a global health emergency.
"The Chinese Grand Prix has always been a very important part of
the F1 calendar and the fans are always incredible," F1 said in a
statement. "We all look forward to racing in China as soon as possible and
wish everyone in the country the best during this difficult time."
According to the WHO, more than 43,000 cases of the coronavirus have
been confirmed in 28 countries and territories around the world, with the death
toll this week exceeding 1,000.
Race organizers say they will continue to monitor the situation to
assess the possibility of rescheduling the race for a later date.
The cancellation means there will be a four-week break in the middle of
the F1 calendar.
The inaugural Vietnamese Grand Prix takes place in early April and
without Shanghai, there won't be another race until the return of the Dutch
Grand Prix at the beginning of May.
The China race has been held at the Shanghai International Circuit in
Shanghai since the inaugural Chinese Grand Prix in 2004.
"The FIA and Formula 1 will continue to work closely with the teams,
race promoter, the Motorcycle Sports of People's Republic of China and the
local authorities to monitor the situation as it develops," added the F1
statement.
"All parties will take the appropriate amount of time to study the
viability of potential alternative dates for the Grand Prix later in the year
should the situation improve."
The Shanghai race isn't the first motorsport event in China affected by
coronavirus; the Formula E race due to be held March 21 in Sanya, China has
also been canceled.
Meanwhile, Chinese Formula E driver Ma Qinghua has been quarantined
ahead of the Mexico ePrix.
More
BT pulls out of Mobile World Congress
February 12,
2020 / 12:07 PM
LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s biggest telecoms group BT (BT.L) said on Wednesday it was
pulling out of the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona because of the
coronavirus outbreak. “After careful discussions and planning, BT have decided that we will not attend GSMA Mobile World Congress Barcelona 2020,” a spokesman said. “We value our participation in important industry groups like GSMA and deeply respect the steps they have already taken to protect attendees.
“Unfortunately, the most responsible decision is to withdraw our participation from the event to safeguard our employees and customers.”
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-mobileworld-bt-group/bt-pulls-out-of-mobile-world-congress-idUKKBN2061N1?il=0
Telecoms group Orange to also pull out from Mobile World Congress - source
February 12,
2020 / 12:19 PM
PARIS (Reuters) - French telecoms group Orange (ORAN.PA) has also decided
to pull out of the Mobile World Congress telecoms event in Barcelona due to
concerns over the coronavirus, said a source close to the matter on Wednesday. Orange CEO Stephane Richard is the current chairman of the GSMA telecoms lobby group, which organises the event.
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-mobileworld-orange/telecoms-group-orange-to-also-pull-out-from-mobile-world-congress-source-idUKKBN2061PN?il=0
Organisers poised to call off Mobile World Congress - sources
February 12,
2020 / 11:15 AM
MADRID/PARIS/BERLIN (Reuters) - Organisers
of the Mobile World Congress (MWC) will decide on Wednesday whether to cancel
the event, two sources said, after several major European telecom companies
pulled out due to the coronavirus outbreak.
The GSMA industry association that organises the conference was due to hold a ‘virtual’ meeting of its board, consisting of 25 industry bosses, at 1300 GMT to discuss its options, according to three people with knowledge of the matter.
“They have to cancel,” said a source with one exhibitor that has decided to pull out.
The telecom industry’s biggest get together, scheduled for Feb. 24-27,
typically draws more than 100,000 visitors to Barcelona. By the GSMA’s own
estimate it gives a lift of around half a billion dollars to the local economy.
The GSMA has been silent since saying last Sunday it planned to go ahead
with the event, while tightening health precautions to guard against the
coronavirus that has killed more than 1,000 people in China since breaking out
last month.
A source close to the organisation said it was preparing a statement.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
'Atomic dance' reveals new insights into performance of 2D materials
The findings could help lead to more stable and reliable wearables and flexible electronic devices
Date:
February 11, 2020
Source:
Northwestern University
Summary:
A team used electron microscopy to observe the cause of failure in a widely
used 2D material, which could help researchers develop more stable and reliable
materials for flexible electronic devices.
A team of Northwestern University materials science researchers have
developed a new method to view the dynamic motion of atoms in atomically thin
2D materials. The imaging technique, which reveals the underlying cause behind
the performance failure of a widely used 2D material, could help researchers
develop more stable and reliable materials for future wearables and flexible
electronic devices.
These 2D materials -- such as graphene and borophene -- are a class of
single-layer, crystalline materials with widespread potential as semiconductors
in advanced ultra-thin, flexible electronics.
Yet due to their thin nature, the
materials are highly sensitive to external environments, and have struggled to
demonstrate long-term stability and reliability when utilized in electronic
devices.
"Atomically thin 2D materials offer the potential to dramatically
scale down electronic devices, making them an attractive option to power future
wearable and flexible electronics," said Vinayak Dravid, Abraham Harris
Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at the McCormick School of
Engineering.
The study, titled "Direct Visualization of Electric Field induced
Structural Dynamics in Monolayer Transition Metal Dichalcogenides," was
published on February 11 in the journal ACS Nano. Dravid is the corresponding
author on the paper. Chris Wolverton, the Jerome B. Cohen Professor of
Materials Science and Engineering, also contributed to the research.
More
There can be few fields of human endeavour in which history counts for so little as in the world of finance. Past experience, to the extent that it is part of memory at all, is dismissed as the primitive refuge of those who do not have the insight to appreciate the incredible wonders of the present.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
All higher again, but
it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing
at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest
stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the rising economic
threat from the coronavirus crisis.
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