Baltic Dry Index. 465 +15 Brent Crude 59.41 Spot Gold 1607
Brexit Freedom
Underway
Trump’s Nuclear
China Tariffs Now in effect.
Covid-19 Cases 20/2/20
China 75,741 Deaths 2128
(Maybe.)
“Socialism
only works in two places: Heaven where they don’t need it and hell where they
already have it.”
Ronald
Reagan.
Today, did
Covid-19 start its breakout from China into the rest of the world starting in
east Asia?
It’s too early to
tell but what happens in the next 3 to 4 weeks will be critical.
China yet again
changed the methodology of how it records new cases, with surprise, surprise,
the new methodology lowering the amount of new recorded cases. From China’s lock down
of some 600 million people and up to 80 percent of its economy, I suspect that
the real numbers might be under reported by a multiple of 10 or more.
But I suspect that
China has no idea of the real numbers, and is just statistically modelling the
reported numbers to try to prevent a domestic panic, and an international
imposed quarantine.
Having spent much
of yesterday traveling 200 miles and back by high speed train, I became well
aware of how uncleaned/unsanitised tables and seats, plus the carriage heating and air
circulation systems can all easily act as means for spreading a virus, to say
nothing of passengers joining the train and searching for seat, or merely
heading up and down to the toilets, or seeking to get coffee or a snack.
If things go awry
in the next 3 to 4 weeks, no amount of central bank stock market rigging will alter the global recession that follows
as global production, consumption, and the velocity of money falls
dramatically.
Asian stocks slip as virus' global impact puts markets on edge
February 20, 2020
/ 1:13 AM
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian stocks eased
and currency markets were skittish on Thursday, as virus cases rose in South
Korea and Japan even as China added more stimulus via a rate cut to support its
economy.
China reported a large drop in new cases but that came together with a
jump in infections in South Korea, two apparent deaths in Japan and researchers
finding that the virus spreads more easily than previously believed
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 0.6%,
led by falls of 0.8% on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s KOSPI.
E-mini futures for the S&P 500 traded 0.2% softer while bonds firmed
slightly and the U.S dollar rose.
“I think there’s a realisation that before we get all the stimulus
measures that people have been frothing about, you’ve got to deal with a lot of
companies that are finding themselves with impairment charges or indeed
solvency problems,” said Sean Darby, global equity strategist at Jefferies
in Hong Kong.
“Markets have taken a step back because the authorities won’t do any
major stimulus until they are completely sure the virus has stopped, because
there’s no point in doing it when people are sitting at home.”
China cut its benchmark lending rate earlier on Thursday, as
anticipated, adding to a slew of measures in recent weeks aimed at cushioning
the virus’ impact on the economy.
That kept Chinese stocks supported, while Japan’s Nikkei advanced 1% as
an overnight slide in the yen is a boon for exporters, though the mood was more
nervous elsewhere. [.T]
More
Coronavirus fears grip South Korean city; China reports drop in new infections
February 19, 2020
/ 1:06 AM
SEOUL/BEIJING
(Reuters) - Coronavirus fears spread to South Korea on Thursday where the mayor
of the country’s fourth-largest city urged residents to stay indoors after a
spike in infections linked to a church congregation, while China reported a
sharp drop in new cases.
In the South Korean city of Daegu malls and movie theatres were empty
and the usually bustling downtown streets were quiet in scenes one resident
likened in comments posted on social media to a “disaster movie”.
Daegu Mayor Kwon Young-jin asked the city’s 2.5 million residents to
stay indoors after 23 new coronavirus infections were traced to church services
in Daegu attended by a woman who later tested positive for the pathogen.
At least 90 of more than 1,000 other people who attended the church
services were showing symptoms, officials said, in what Korea’s Centers for
Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) described as a “super-spreading event”.
“We are in an unprecedented crisis,” Kwon told reporters. “We plan to
test all believers of that church and have asked them to stay at home isolated
from their families.”
The situation was “very grave”, South Korean Vice Health Minister Kim
Kang-lip said at a separate briefing.
South Korea now has 82 confirmed cases of the flu-like virus that
emerged for China late last year and has now claimed more than 2,100 lives.
Japanese media on Thursday reported the deaths of two elderly passengers
from the quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship anchored off Yokohama, the
biggest cluster of infection outside mainland China with more than 620 cases.
A second group of about 600 Japanese and foreign passengers from the
Diamond Princess was set to disembark on Thursday, after the first batch were
released from quarantine a day earlier. The ship was carrying about 3,700
people when quarantined on Feb. 3.
Hundreds of people who left the ship on Wednesday were placed in
quarantine again in their home countries, with Australia and Hong Kong putting
their returned citizens in supervised isolation for another two weeks.
Passengers arriving in Hong Kong were taken straight into quarantine at
a new public housing estate. A contingent of Australian evacuees were placed in
quarantine at an old mining camp outside Darwin in the country’s far north.
Two people died of the disease in Iran on Wednesday, Iranian officials
said, bringing the death toll outside mainland China to eight. If the reported
deaths on the quarantined ship are confirmed the toll outside mainland China
would stand at 10, according to a Reuters tally based on official statements.
China’s Hubei province, which accounts for
the vast majority of cases, reported a sharp drop in new infections after it
stopped diagnosing people using chest X-rays and counted only those who tested
positive for genetic traces of the coronavirus.
---- Excluding Hubei, the number of new confirmed cases in mainland China fell for the 16th
consecutive day to 45.
While the numbers suggest a downward trend, scientists in China who
studied nose and throat swabs from 18 patients say the newly identified virus
could be more contagious than previously thought.
More
Studies show COVID-19 likely has multiple infection routes
Feb 19,
2020
As the COVID-19 outbreak grows in China and abroad, new
studies attempt to answer questions on how the virus is shed and the range of
clinical outcomes, with two studies indicating that shedding—and therefore
transmission—likely occurs via multiple routes.Currently, testing for and confirmation of infection with COVID-19 is conducted via oral swabs. But in a study published in Emerging Microbes & Infections, Chinese scientists report evidence of an oral-fecal transmission route for COVID-19 viruses and show that, in hospitalized patients, viral RNA was found in anal swabs and in blood samples.
The study was conducted in a Wuhan, China, hospital, with samples collected from 178 patients. The study authors found viral nucleotide in anal swabs or blood even when it was not detected in oral swabs, especially in patients who had been receiving supportive care for several days.
The results also showed that the timing of positive swabs changed. On the first day of illness, 80% of oral swabs were positive in a small group of patients, but by day 5, 75% of anal swabs were positive for COVID-19 virual RNA, and only 50% of oral swabs were still positive in the same patients with lab-confirmed COVID-19.
"These data suggested a shift from more oral positive during early period (as indicated by antibody titres) to more anal positive during later period might happen," the authors said.
The results of the study are the first to show COVID-19 could be transmitted via respiratory, fecal-oral, or body fluid routes, the authors say. They also warn that a patient with negative oral swabs after several days of illness may still be capable of transmitting the virus.
In a report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control, authors describe how they isolated the virus from a stool sample of a patient with COVID-19
"Respiratory droplets and contact transmission are considered to be the most important routes of transmission of 2019-nCoV, but do not fully account for the occurrence of all coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases, previously known as novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP), and the reasons for the rapid spread of this virus," they write.
The finding suggests stool can contaminate hands, food, water, and, as with the other study, it points to multiple routes of transmission.
Milder symptoms in non-Wuhan Chinese patients
Today in The BMJ, Chinese scientists looked at the clinical findings of 62 COVID-19 patients from seven hospitals in Zhejiang province, China. None of the patients died, and only one patient was admitted to the intensive care unit.Of the 62 patients, 48 (77%) presented with a fever, 50 (81%) had a cough, 35 (56%) had a productive cough, 32 (52%) reported muscle pain or fatigue, and 21 (34%) had a headache. Only two patients (3%) developed shortness of breath on admission, the authors said.
The authors said that, compared with patients in Wuhan, the patients seen in Zhejiang had relatively mild symptoms. None of the patients had exposure to the Wuhan seafood market linked to the origin of the virus, and all had contracted the disease front another infected person.
Patients who experienced symptoms for the more than 10 days were more likely to have underlying health issues.
The authors also provided a timeline for infection: "Among 56 patients who could provide the exact date of close contact with someone with confirmed or suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection, the median incubation period from exposure to symptoms was 4 days (interquartile range 3-5 days). The median time from onset of symptoms to first hospital admission was 2.0 (1.0-4.3) days."
SARS-CoV-2 is another name for the COVID-19 virus.
More
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/studies-show-covid-19-likely-has-multiple-infection-routes
China deploys 40 incinerators to Wuhan amid fears of coronavirus death toll 'cover up'
Chinese media reports that the mobile furnaces – used for
burning animal carcasses and medical waste – have been shipped to the centre of
the Covid-19 outbreak
Henry HollowayChief Reporter
12:11, 19 FEB 2020 Updated12:17, 19 FEB 2020
China has reportedly deployed 40 industrial incinerators to the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak Wuhan.
Chinese media reports that the furnaces have been shipped to the city amid ongoing fears the death toll is being covered up.
NTD reports that the cabins are for the disposal of animal carcasses,
while China Ship news reports the incinerators are for medical waste.
Wuhan has been at the centre of the global epidemic which has infected
more than 75,000 people and killed more than 2,000.
It is believed the virus spread from bats to other animals in the
so-called “wet markets” in the city before being passed to humans.
Sources quoted in Chinese media raise questions over whether or not the
incinerators are for animals, or will be used to dispose of human remains.
More
As Cases Mount, Japan Rapidly Becomes a Coronavirus
Hotbed
Gearoid Reidy Feb
19 2020, 3:33 PM Feb 20 2020, 10:49 AM
(Bloomberg) --
Japan is emerging as one of the riskiest places for the spread of the
coronavirus, prompting criticism that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government
has misfired on its policies to block the outbreak. The number of infections in
Japan has more than doubled in the past week to 84, tying Singapore as the
country outside mainland China with the most cases.
Adding to the worries is that passengers began leaving the quarantined vessel Wednesday amid concerns some might later test positive and take the virus to more parts of Japan. The situation is growing more alarming as Japan’s elderly population and work ethic present high-risk scenarios for the outbreak’s spread. ‘Second Wuhan’ Professor Kentaro Iwata, a specialist of infectious diseases at Ko
In an interview with Bloomberg News before deleting the videos, Iwata said Japan now faces a crucial period in its handling of the outbreak to prevent a “second Wuhan.” “It’s a really critical moment to see whether Japan is going to see the containment of the disease or really suffer from the spread,” he said, adding that he rated the government’s response apart from the handling of the Diamond
While a handful of the cases in Japan are evacuees from Hubei province – the epicenter of the disease where Wuhan is located – the vast majority are Japan residents, many with no history of traveling to China. Among those have been several taxi drivers, suspected of having extensive interactions with the public before their diagnoses.
More
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Virus Havoc Could Shut Down a
Nissan Factory Half a World Away
Bloomberg News
The Japanese carmaker procures more than 800 parts from factories in the outbreak epicenter of Hubei to make cars worldwide and is concerned that most of those components — ranging from brake hoses to air conditioning controllers — will run out if plants in the province stay idled beyond Feb. 21, when the government has signaled that production could resume for most companies, according to one of the people, who asked not to be identified discussing a private matter.
The shortage could lead to some Nissan car output in Japan to be suspended as soon as Feb. 23, followed by Malaysia soon after, the person said. Further delays could mean plants in the U.S., U.K., India, Mexico, Russia and Spain also have to stop production, the person said.
More
Australia extends coronavirus ban on travel from China into fourth week
Government cites continuing infections in mainland China in decision to extend ban until 29 February, despite pleas from higher education sector
Thu 20 Feb 2020 06.54 GMT Last modified on Thu 20 Feb 2020
06.57 GMT
The Australian government has extended its ban on international arrivals who have travelled through China for a fourth week due to the novel coronavirus crisis, despite the increasing pressure on the economy and the start of the university year.
The ban has been in force since 1 February and was initially scheduled for 14 days, would continue into a fourth week.
Announcing the extension on Thursday, the government said in a statement that the number of coronavirus cases in Hubei province continued to grow, but was slowing elsewhere.
“We will need to watch closely whether this positive trend continues as people return to work after the holidays,” the statement said.
The government’s approach to preventing the spread of the disease in Australia continued to be successful, it said, with the number of cases remaining at 15.
The Australian economy faces an estimated $8bn hit due to the novel coronavirus outbreak, which is expected to cost the global economy US$1.1tn.
The ban has hit the higher education sector particularly hard, stranding an estimated 65,800 international visa-holding students in China, with universities reportedly preparing for a $1.2bn loss of income while scrambling to accommodate remote learning and to manage the effect on staff workloads, particularly casual staff.
---- Under the restrictions, foreign nationals who have travelled through mainland China are not allowed to enter Australia for 14 days from the time they left.
Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family are
exempt from the ban, but are required to self-isolate for 14 days – the
incubation period of the virus – on their return to Australia if they have been
in mainland China since 1 February.
On Thursday, 75,660 cases of Covid-19 had been recorded worldwide,
including 62,031 in Hubei province, where the virus emerged. More than 2,000
people have died.
More
Technology Update.
Fast-charging, long-running, bendy energy storage breakthrough
Date:
February 17, 2020
Source:
University College London
Summary:
A new bendable supercapacitor made from graphene, which charges quickly and
safely stores a record-high level of energy for use over a long period, has
been developed.
While at the proof-of-concept stage, it shows enormous potential as a
portable power supply in several practical applications including electric
vehicles, phones and wearable technology.
The discovery, published today in Nature Energy, overcomes the
issue faced by high-powered, fast-charging supercapacitors -- that they usually
cannot hold a large amount of energy in a small space.
First author of the study, Dr Zhuangnan Li (UCL Chemistry), said:
"Our new supercapacitor is extremely promising for next-generation energy
storage technology as either a replacement for current battery technology, or
for use alongside it, to provide the user with more power.
"We designed materials which would give our supercapacitor a high
power density -- that is how fast it can charge or discharge -- and a high
energy density -- which will determine how long it can run for. Normally, you
can only have one of these characteristics but our supercapacitor provides
both, which is a critical breakthrough.
"Moreover, the supercapacitor can bend to 180 degrees without
affecting performance and doesn't use a liquid electrolyte, which minimises any
risk of explosion and makes it perfect for integrating into bendy phones or
wearable electronics."
A team of chemists, engineers and physicists worked on the new design,
which uses an innovative graphene electrode material with pores that can be
changed in size to store the charge more efficiently. This tuning maximises the
energy density of the supercapacitor to a record 88.1 Wh/L (Watt-hour per
litre), which is the highest ever reported energy density for carbon-based
supercapacitors.
Similar fast-charging commercial technology has a relatively poor energy
density of 5-8 Wh/L and traditional slow-charging but long-running lead-acid
batteries used in electric vehicles typically have 50-90 Wh/L.
While the supercapacitor developed by the team has a comparable energy
density to state-of-the-art value of lead-acid batteries, its power density is
two orders of magnitude higher at over 10,000 Watt per litre.
Senior author and Dean of UCL Mathematical & Physical Sciences,
Professor Ivan Parkin (UCL Chemistry), said: "Successfully storing a huge
amount of energy safely in a compact system is a significant step towards
improved energy storage technology. We have shown it charges quickly, we can
control its output and it has excellent durability and flexibility, making it
ideal for development for use in miniaturised electronics and electric
vehicles. Imagine needing only ten minutes to fully-charge your electric car or
a couple of minutes for your phone and it lasting all day."
The researchers made electrodes from multiple layers of graphene,
creating a dense, but porous material capable of trapping charged ions of
different sizes. They characterised it using a range of techniques and found it
performed best when the pore sizes matched the diameter of the ions in the
electrolyte.
The optimised material, which forms a thin film, was used to build a
proof-of-concept device with both a high power and high energy density.
More
21st
century adage: Is that true, or did you hear it on the BBC?
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 24,999 +76 Down. NASDAQ: 7,282 +124 Down.
SP500:
2,704 +71 Down.
All higher
again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take. The rally is all down to the Fed
monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a month. I continue to look on the
Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally, made all the more urgent by the
rising economic threat from the coronavirus crisis.
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