Baltic Dry Index. 415 +16 Brent Crude 54.39 Spot Gold 1571
Brexit Freedom Underway
Trump’s Nuclear China Tariffs Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases 10/2/20 China 40,644
Deaths 910 (Maybe.)
Freedom
is the right to tell people what they do not want to hear.
George Orwell.
In what may turn into the greatest gamble ever, China has
begun the process of returning to work after the coronavirus extended Lunar New
Year holiday.
Will new cases and deaths now spike again as coronavirus
spreads among the returning workforce? No one knows, of course, but there is a
great danger that it might.
On December 31, 2019, China first announced coronavirus
to the world. There were 59 confirmed cases and no deaths. On January 11, 2020,
they declared the first death.
On January 20, right as people began travelling for the
Lunar New Year, China confirmed 291 cases and 3 deaths. By yesterday, 20 days
later, confirmed cases reached 40,171 with 823 deaths. But these are merely the official figures. No
one believes China’s official figures.
The World Health Organisation, thinks, largely based on
China’s research, that the new virus takes from 5 days to 14 days to show
symptoms. For the next two weeks China will undergo a great experiment.
If new cases surge by the end of the month, what then?
Mass quarantine across China and the collapse of much of the world’s just in
time supply chains?
Below, Asian markets open nervously, with China shares
heading down despite new support liquidity from the central bank.
Asian markets slip amid warnings that China virus remains a threat
Published: Feb 9,
2020 11:56 p.m. ET
Asian stock markets slid Monday after China reported an uptick in new
cases of its virus outbreak and analysts warned optimism the disease is under
control might be premature.
Market benchmarks in Tokyo, Shanghai and Hong Kong retreated. Australia
was unchanged.
A decline last week in the number of new Chinese virus cases reported
daily fed investor optimism the disease and its economic impact might fade. But
economists and industry analysts warn the outbreak still is weighing on
retailing, tourism, electronics, shipping and other fields.
Markets took the decline in daily new cases “as an early indication of
containment,” said Vishnu Varathan of Mizuho Bank in a report.
“But this may well prove to be premature relief,” said Varathan. “And so, the “Coro-NO-virus” relief is at best shallow, if not essentially no relief, at this point.”
The Shanghai Composite Index SHCOMP, -0.39% declined 0.5% and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.50% shed 0.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -0.77% lost 0.9%.
In South Korea, the Kospi 180721, -0.61% declined 0.8% while Sydney’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.07% was unchanged. Markets in New Zealand NZ50GR, -0.50% , Taiwan Y9999, -0.45% and Southeast Asia also retreated.
China reported 3,062 new virus cases in the 24 hours through midnight Sunday. That’s up 15% from Saturday’s tally in a reminder of enduring uncertainty about the disease, which has prompted authorities to cut most access to the central city of Wuhan and impose travel and other restrictions on others.
China’s central bank promised additional lending to cushion companies against the blow of intensive controls that closed shops, factories and other businesses nationwide. The government promised tax cuts and subsidies to farmers, makers of medical supplies and other companies.
Authorities are using targeted loans and government spending to fight the virus’s effects instead of a broad-based stimulus, said Iris Pang of ING in a report.
“It seems that policymakers do not want to confuse emergency policies with standard easing policies,” said Pang. “We may not see broad-based economic policy actions in the near term.”
On Wall Street, stocks snapped a four-day winning streak and fell Friday but closed out the U.S. market’s best week in eight months.
More
China slowly returns to work as coronavirus toll hits daily record
February 10, 2020
/ 1:18 AM
BEIJING
(Reuters) - Workers began trickling back to offices and factories around China
on Monday as the government eased some restrictions on working in the wake of
the coronavirus epidemic that has now killed more than 900 people, mostly on
the mainland.
Sunday’s death toll of 97 was the largest in a single day since the
outbreak was first detected in December at a seafood market in Hubei province’s
capital, Wuhan.
Across mainland China, there were 3,062 new confirmed infections,
bringing the total number so far to 40,171, according to the National Health
Commission (NHC).
The epidemic has caused huge disruptions in China with usually teeming
cities becoming virtual ghost towns during the past two weeks as Communist
Party rulers ordered virtual lockdowns, cancelled flights, closed factories and
shut schools.
Authorities had told businesses to tack up to 10 extra days onto Lunar
New Year holidays that had been due to finish at the end of January.
Even on Monday, a large number of workplaces will remain closed and many
white-collar workers will continue to work from home.
On one of the usually busiest subway lines in Beijing, trains were
largely empty. The few commuters sighted during peak-hour morning traffic were
all wearing masks.
Hubei, the province hit hardest by the outbreak, remains in virtual
lockdow, with its train stations and airports shut and its roads sealed off.
Some restrictions on people entering and leaving residential compounds are in
place in many other cities across China, and schools in many regions will be
shut through the end of February.
Stocks and oil fell while safe-haven gold rose on Monday as the death toll from the outbreak surpassed the coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) global epidemic in 2002/2003, raising alarm bells about its severity.
Graphic: Comparing new coronavirus to SARS and MERS - here
---- China’s central bank has taken a raft of measures to support the economy, including reducing interest rates and flushing the market with liquidity. From Monday, it will provide special funds for banks to re-lend to businesses combating the virus.
Taiwan’s Foxconn has received Chinese government approval to resume production
at a key plant in the northern China city of Zhengzhou, a source with direct
knowledge of the situation told Reuters on Monday.
About 16,000 people, or under 10% of Foxconn’s workforce in Zhengzhou,
have returned to the plant, the person said.
More
Coronavirus turns busy Chinese cities into ghost towns
February 9, 2020 /
1:20 AM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- After making sure everyone’s face mask is on and sanitizer is to hand, the
Qiao family heads out to Jingshan Park, a former royal sanctuary beside the
Forbidden City in China’s capital Beijing.
Snow has fallen for a second day, a rare event in the city of 21.5
million that would normally bring hundreds of thousands of people out to take
photos and play. But the streets are empty and the parks are so quiet the only
sound is of birds chirping.
It’s not just Beijing. Shanghai, China’s financial hub, and other cities
in the world’s most populous nation have turned into ghost towns after the
government extended a holiday and asked residents not to go out because of the
coronavirus.
“We know the situation of the coronavirus is severe. But the epicentre
is far away, so we think it should be fine here ... It’s a God-given chance to
enjoy this family moment with snow and without work,” said Mr Qiao, who has an
11-year-old daughter.
The epidemic has killed 722 people and infected nearly 32,000 in China
as of Feb 8. More than three-quarters of the cases are in the central Hubei
province where the virus originated - more than 1,000 km (620 miles) from
Beijing.
Only a few people are brave enough to come out. A security guard at
Jingshan Park said there were less than a third of the number of tourists than
usual, even with the rare snowfall.
Even at one of the
best spots for snapping photos of snowy Beijing just outside the Forbidden
City, there’s barely a crowd, while the usual tour buses and groups of people
speaking different dialects are nowhere to be seen.
---- Security guards along Wangfujing street, a popular pedestrianised shopping area in downtown Beijing, said it was normally so crowded during the holiday period that it was hard to move around.
“Look at it now, there are more security guards and street cleaners than
tourists!” said one of the guards.
Businesses, including shops, bars and restaurants, have been severely
hit by the epidemic as the government has banned mass gatherings and even group
meals in an effort to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
More
China's Hebei says schools shut until March to stop virus - state media
February 9, 2020
/ 8:36 AM
BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - The northern Chinese province of Hebei will
keep its schools shut until at least March 1 to control the coronavirus
outbreak, the Communist Party-run People’s Daily newspaper said on Sunday,
citing the local education bureau.
Hebei, which surrounds the capital Beijing, is one of a number of
provinces and municipalities to extend the school shutdown until the end of the
month, with others including Shandong, Jiangsu and Shanghai.
Singapore Airshow hit by virus fears as 70 exhibitors pull out
Issued on:
09/02/2020 - 08:46
More than 70 exhibitors including US aerospace giant Lockheed Martin
have pulled out of the Singapore Airshow over concerns about the coronavirus
outbreak, but organisers insisted Sunday that Asia's biggest aviation event
would still go ahead.
Precautionary measures -- including a major reduction in public
attendance and temperature screenings -- have been imposed ahead of the opening
of the event which opens Tuesday in the city-state, which has reported 40
coronavirus infections.
Organisers were also encouraging attendees to greet each other by bowing
or waving instead of shaking hands.
Leck Chet Lam, the managing director of organiser Experia Events,
confirmed that more than 70 exhibitors have decided not to participate, but
said there was "still strong presence" at the show.
The biggest names in aerospace participate in the Singapore Airshow, and
often massive deals -- such as aircraft orders from major carriers -- are
announced at the event.
The outbreak, which has killed more than 800 people and infected tens of
thousands across China, has spread to nearly more than two dozen other
countries and sparked global concern.
Many nations, including Singapore, have barred the entry of travellers
who had been to China recently from entering or transiting through its
territory to counter the spread of the virus.
Despite that ban, the Chinese air force will take part in the air show
for the first time. The acrobatic team will participate in the flight displays
-- the highlight of the biennial event -- but more than 10 Chinese companies
have withdrawn.
More
Every
generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before
it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.
George Orwell.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner.
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, rare earths, which mostly come from coronavirus hit China. Is the west about to get a very nasty, coronavirus
induced, supply shock? The answer is probably yes if China’s coronavirus crisis
continues for much longer.
Below, rare earths industry expert Jack Lifton, covers the subject and
starts to fret.
The inevitable impact of the Coronavirus on the world’s rare earths supply.
Jack Lifton | February 07,
2020
Critical materials-based supply chains may be hanging by a thread, the thread of the size of existing Chinese inventories.
The coronavirus outbreak in China has had a foreseeable but unintended consequence. Truck drivers have refused to make deliveries into areas either identified as or suspected of harboring the disease.This has interrupted not only the flow of minerals out of the affected areas but also the refining and manufacturing of metals, food, and fuel. Among the under-reported deficiencies thereby caused the most important ones for the global rare earths production and utilization industries is the interruption in the flow of chemical reagents necessary for refining rare earths and for producing metals, alloys, and magnets.
It cannot be overemphasized that the shutdown of a supply chain on purpose is time consuming, and its re-start even more so. Supply chains are not turned on and off with the flick of a switch.
The dependence of American and European manufacturing on the
just-in-time delivery of components means that their industries maintain
limited or even non-existent inventories. We do not know much about Chinese inventories,
but we do know that they cannot be infinitely large.
If the coronavirus outbreak continues, we will soon learn a lot about
the size of Chinese inventories providing, of course, that export from China
does not also shut down (It is certainly slowing down).
Rare earth enabled components for moving machinery, such as automobiles,
trucks, trains, aircraft, industrial motors and generators, home appliances,
and consumer goods, almost all today come from China or Japan (which of course
gest its rare earth magnets, alloys, phosphors, and catalysts from China). That
flow is now slowing. This will have a domino effect on American and European
industry. These items cannot be re-sourced due to China’s monopoly of rare
earths production and its monopsony of rare earth enabled component
manufacturing.
More
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates
as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy
mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Engineers mix and match materials to make new stretchy electronics
Date:
February 7, 2020
Source:
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Summary:
A new process may be the key to manufacturing flexible electronics with
multiple functionalities in a cost-effective way.
At the heart of any electronic device is a cold, hard computer chip,
covered in a miniature city of transistors and other semiconducting elements.
Because computer chips are rigid, the electronic devices that they power, such
as our smartphones, laptops, watches, and televisions, are similarly
inflexible.
Now a process developed by MIT engineers may be the key to manufacturing
flexible electronics with multiple functionalities in a cost-effective way.
The process is called "remote epitaxy" and involves growing
thin films of semiconducting material on a large, thick wafer of the same
material, which is covered in an intermediate layer of graphene. Once the
researchers grow a semiconducting film, they can peel it away from the
graphene-covered wafer and then reuse the wafer, which itself can be expensive
depending on the type of material it's made from. In this way, the team can
copy and peel away any number of thin, flexible semiconducting films, using the
same underlying wafer.
In a paper published in the journal Nature, the researchers
demonstrate that they can use remote epitaxy to produce freestanding films of
any functional material. More importantly, they can stack films made from these
different materials, to produce flexible, multifunctional electronic devices.
The researchers expect that the process could be used to produce
stretchy electronic films for a wide variety of uses, including virtual
reality-enabled contact lenses, solar-powered skins that mold to the contours
of your car, electronic fabrics that respond to the weather, and other flexible
electronics that seemed until now to be the stuff of Marvel movies.
More
“When it becomes serious, you have to lie.”
Jean-Claude
Juncker. Failed former Luxembourg P.M., serial liar, ex-president of the
European Commission. Scotch
connoisseur.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished January
DJIA: 28,256 +97 Up. NASDAQ: 9,151 +152 Up.
SP500: 3,226 +130 Up.
All higher again, but it’s not a buy signal I would take.
The rally is all down to the Fed monetizing at a rate of about 100 billion a
month. I continue to look on the Fed’s latest stock bubble as an exit rally,
made all the more urgent by the rising economic threat from the coronavirus
crisis.
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