Baltic Dry Index. 421 unch. Brent Crude 56.34 Spot Gold 1574
Brexit Freedom
Underway
Trump’s Nuclear
China Tariffs Now in effect.
Coronavirus Cases
14/2/20 China 64,441 Deaths 1491 (Maybe.)
Well maybe but I
would take the other side of that bet, especially with stocks trading in the
stratosphere, and the global economy having just hit an iceberg.
Below, Asian
markets mark time, another cruise ship gets quarantined, as the prison ship from
hell finally docks at Sihanoukville, Cambodia.
Asian markets mixed as investors digest surge in coronavirus cases
By Associated
Press Published: Feb 13, 2020 11:33
p.m. ET
Asian shares mostly gained Friday as investors turned
cautious following a surge in cases of a new virus in China that threatens to
crimp economic growth and hurt businesses worldwide.China on Friday reported another sharp rise in the number of people infected with COVID-19, as the death toll neared 1,400. The National Health Commission said 121 more people had died and there were 5,090 new confirmed cases. The number of reported cases has been rising more quickly after the hardest-hit province changed its method of counting them Thursday. There are now 63,851 confirmed cases in mainland China, of which 1,380 have died.
----China was also scheduled to cut tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. goods in half effective at 1:01 p.m. Beijing time.
On Thursday, Wall Street that snapped a three-day streak of record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite. The selling marked only the second day this month that the market has declined.
Investors had largely set aside worries about the economic impact of the virus outbreak the past two weeks. Markets rallied this week partly because the number of new cases appeared to be slowing.
Hopes were dashed by sharp increases in both the number of cases and newly reported deaths Thursday after the hardest-hit province of Hubei began counting doctors’ diagnoses without waiting for laboratory results in hopes of getting patients treated faster.
“We’re in a data-dearth period in the sense that we’re not really going to know fully the effects of the impact of that on Asian and Chinese growth, as well as global growth, for at least several weeks,” said Lisa Erickson, head of traditional investments at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. “You’re just going to see some back-and-forth movement (in the market) until that time.”
----But Stephen Innes chief market strategist at AxiCorp, said he believes the economic impact from the virus outbreak would likely be limited and the disease might be contained by March.
“The market impact was little more than a pause in the general bullish
upward trend rather than risk-off,” he said, referring to the reaction to the
higher case numbers.
Businesses have already been hurting due to the outbreak and more of
them are warning that the effects will linger through the year.
More
China coronavirus deaths slow, cruise ship disembarks in Cambodia
February 14, 2020
/ 1:18 AM
BEIJING/SIHANOUKVILLE,
Cambodia (Reuters) - The daily death toll in the Chinese province at the center
of the coronavirus outbreak halved on Friday, officials said, while passengers
on a cruise ship blocked from five countries due to virus fears finally disembarked
in Cambodi
News of the first death from the virus in Japan rattled Asian markets, already on edge after hopes that the epidemic was stabilizing appeared to be dashed by a sharp rise in the number of cases reported by China on Thursday.
In its latest update, Hubei province’s health commission on Friday said it had recorded 116 deaths and 4,823 new cases of the flu-like virus that emerged in the provincial capital, Wuhan, in December.
The number of new deaths and infections was down sharply on the previous day, when a change in the methods of diagnosing patients led to a record spike in cases.
GRAPHIC: Comparing new coronavirus to SARS and MERS - here
The new figures give no indication the outbreak is nearing a peak, said
Adam Kamradt-Scott, an infectious diseases expert at the Centre for
International Security Studies at the University of Sydney.
“Based on the current trend in confirmed cases, this appears to be a
clear indication that while the Chinese authorities are doing their best to
prevent the spread of the coronavirus, the fairly drastic measures they have
implemented to date would appear to have been too little, too late,” he said.
---- Japan confirmed its first coronavirus death on Thursday - a woman in her 80s living in Kanagawa prefecture near Tokyo. The death was the third outside mainland China, after two others in Hong Kong and the Philippines.
Japan is one of the worst affected of more than two dozen countries and
territories outside mainland China that have seen hundreds of infections from
the flu-like sickness.
Figures due out later on Friday are expected to show Japan’s economy -
the world’s third-largest - shrank an annualized 3.7% in the October-December
quarter, due partly to the impact of the virus outbreak, according to analysts.
More
Economic fallout from China's coronavirus mounts across the globe
Feb
14. 2020
The
economic casualties from China's coronavirus epidemic are mounting as Asian and
European auto plants run short of parts, free-spending Chinese tourists stay
home and American companies brace for unpredictable turbulence.
That's just the start of a financial hangover that is expected to linger
for months even if the flulike illness is soon brought under control,
economists and supply chain experts say. The Chinese epidemic's aftereffects
will likely cause the global economy to shrink this quarter for the first time
since the depths of the 2009 financial crisis, according to Capital Economics
in London.
Chinese factories had been scheduled to reopen on Feb. 10 after a Lunar
New Year holiday that already had been extended for several days because of the
medical scare. But with many workers unable or unwilling to return to employers
located in a sprawling quarantine region, the resumption of routine operations
in many workplaces has been delayed.
Caterpillar this week said most of its Chinese suppliers had returned to
work. But Foxconn, a major electronics producer for Apple, said it will be the
end of the month before even half of its facilities are operating.
The country's links to the outside world, meanwhile, remain frayed. Both
United Airlines and American Airlines said this week they would not resume
normal service to mainland China until April 24, almost a month later than planned.
The ripple effects of China's shutdown are spreading, with the auto
industry especially hard hit. Nissan temporarily closed one of its factories in
Japan after running short of Chinese components, one week after Hyundai in
South Korea did the same. Fiat Chrysler warned that it may shutter one of its
European plants. Some U.S. manufacturers could face parts shortages in one to
two weeks.
"I worry that it's going to be a bigger deal than most economists
are treating it as right now," said Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic
adviser at Allianz, the German financial services company. "It will take
time to restart all these economic engines."
---- The coronavirus struck China as many U.S. corporations already were reconsidering their global footprint. President Donald Trump's tariffs on roughly 70 percent of all Chinese goods, imposed during a two-year long trade war with China, raised doubts about the future of trans-Pacific supply lines.
"We were already hitting the pause button on globalization,"
El-Erian said. "This [virus] disrupts the movement of goods and it
disrupts the movement of people, making companies reassess how international
they want their supply chains to be."
After initially dismissing the epidemic as principally a Chinese
problem, U.S. policymakers in recent days acknowledged it will damage the
global and U.S. growth outlook. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell said
earlier this week that there will "very likely be some effects on the
United States" from the epidemic, which has closed thousands of Chinese
factories that supply American companies.
Among the first tangible impacts in the U.S. is a decline in the number
of Chinese tourists. Visitors from China represent a lucrative market for
American Airlines, hotels, luxury retailers and entertainment venues, with
average spending of around $6,500 per person.
As of Feb. 7, the number of passengers flying between North America and
China was 75 percent below last year's level and was shrinking by the day,
according to Quandl, a financial data provider.
More
Missed call? Counting the cost of no-show Mobile World Congress
February 13,
2020 / 3:17 PM
BERLIN (Reuters) - For an event meant to showcase the power of telecoms,
cancelling this year’s Mobile World Congress in Barcelona without a back-up
plan has perplexed many in the trillion-dollar sector.
Wednesday’s decision to call off the telecoms industry’s biggest annual gathering over fears of coronavirus, which has yet to reach mainland Spain, has left a hole in marketing budgets and dealt a $500 million blow to the local economy.
It has also raised questions about whether the four-day event, which drew 110,000 visitors last year, has become too big for its own good, while missing an opportunity to use the very communications technology that it is meant to highlight.
Sony (6758.T) and Nokia (NOKIA.HE) said after pulling out of the event that they would hold product launches online instead, while South Korea’s Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) showcased a new folding phone at separate event in San Francisco last week.
The crisis began eight days ago when South Korea’s LG Electronics (066570.KS) became the first company to scratch, triggering a spate of cancellations.
“The whole idea, that we’ve got to get tens of thousands of people together to meet, goes out of the window,” Mike Rosenberg, an associate professor at the IESE business school in Barcelona, said of the decision to cancel February’s event.
Rosenberg, who specialises in crisis strategy and scenario planning, said that with China still battling the worst of the coronavirus outbreak, the GSMA’s next big conference in Shanghai this summer could also be at risk.
---- While major exhibitors can bear the cost, hundreds of smaller companies for whom MWC is the big event on their marketing agenda may think twice about returning, analysts said.
“Now they face the challenge of having to figure out what the best way
to salvage something,” Ben Wood, chief of research at consultants CCS Insight,
said.
In a show of unity, the GSMA’s leadership held a joint news conference
with local leaders on Thursday, vowing to work to stage next year’s edition of
the event, which has been held in Barcelona since 2006.
But Director General Mats Granryd faced tough questioning from reporters
after conceding that insurance that the GSMA takes out on behalf of exhibitors
does not cover an event like the coronavirus outbreak.
“Clearly there is no way you can insure yourself out of a force majeure
situation,” Granryd said.
More
China's auto sales slump 18% in January
By Trefor
Moss
Published: Feb 13, 2020 2:06 a.m. ET
Chinese auto sales in January declined 18% on year to 1.94 million
vehicles, the government-backed China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
said Thursday.
With the Lunar New Year holiday falling in late January this year, as
opposed to early February in 2019, the on-year decline in sales was expected.
Commercial activity typically grinds to a halt during the weeklong vacation.
February won't provide the usual rebound, however, with the coronavirus
outbreak in China set to decimate first-quarter auto sales.
The epidemic will wreak greater havoc on the Chinese economy than the
2003 SARS outbreak, according to a survey of over 300 auto companies conducted
by the manufacturers' association, although they also said that the collapse in
consumer demand should be relatively short-lived.
Auto sales in China declined for the second straight year in 2019 to
25.8 million, down significantly on the record-high 28.9 million sold in 2017.
The painful start to the year could spell another full-year decline for the
Chinese industry in 2020.
Sales of electric vehicles also slumped in January, falling 54% on year
to 44,000 vehicles.
China's coronavirus hit clubs prompt Pernod to cut profit growth forecast
February 13,
2020 / 6:46 AM
PARIS (Reuters) - Shuttered Chinese clubs and bars led
French spirits group Pernod Ricard (PERP.PA) to warn on
Thursday that the coronavirus outbreak would have a severe impact on its
third-quarter. The Martell cognac owner, the biggest international spirits maker in China and the world’s second-biggest behind Diageo (DGE.L), also cut its full-year profit growth outlook, but was confident over its medium-term Chinese prospects.
“Night clubs and night bars are all closed in China and those bars and restaurants that are not closed are empty,” Chairman and CEO Alexandre Ricard told Reuters.
Ricard, whose third quarter runs to the end of March, said the safety of
2,000 employees in China was a priority for the group, which had re-opened its
offices on Feb.10 after a week-long closure. Staff could work from home and
those who wanted to return to work were wearing masks.
Pernod Ricard is assuming a gradual recovery in bars and restaurants
from March in China, its second largest market after the United States, and a
return to normal in June, with a recovery in March in spirits sales from
stores.
“Our mid-term ambition remains intact. Fundamentals in China are
extremely solid,” Ricard said.
China accounts for around 10% of sales at Pernod Ricard, which has been
banking on a growing middle class and young population to grow sales at a high
single digit to low double digit rate, after 21% sales growth there last year.
More
Coronavirus spells brutal Valentine's Day for Shanghai dining spots
February 13, 2020
/ 9:41 AM
SHANGHAI (Reuters)
- As Valentine’s Day nears on Friday, Shanghai restaurant owner Bill Hu finds
himself unusually free.
The lights are out at seul&SEUL, his French fine dining spot in a
high-end mall in China’s commercial hub, with wine glasses stacked up and the
kitchen silent, save for two employees tasked with disinfection duties.
“The number of reservations this year is almost zero,” said Hu, when asked
about preparations for the festival popular with many in China’s cities, a time
when he is usually busy with plans for special menus and reservation bookings.
“This virus epidemic came all of a sudden,” added Hu, who said his
restaurant had about 170 customers last Valentine’s Day. “Many customers who
had made reservations all called in to cancel.”
His is just one of many businesses reeling from the impact of a
coronavirus outbreak that spurred harsh travel curbs across China, with
authorities encouraging people to stay home, leaving large cities looking like
ghost towns.
The past few weeks had been “brutal”, said Austin Hu, the chef at
Heritage by Madison, a high-end restaurant nestled by the river on Shanghai’s
famed Bund.
“Valentine’s Day is kind of sad so far, we
have one booking at the moment,” he added. “It’s going to take a while for the
confidence to come back. “The real question is whether we can last long
enough.”
More
Valentine’s Day flower trade wilts in China as businesses take hit from coronavirus outbreak
·
It’s usually the busiest time of the year for
florists, but ‘80 per cent of flower shops and markets have been forced to
close’
·
Many people have had to cancel plans amid
lockdowns and other measures to contain the outbreak
Published:
10:30am, 14 Feb, 2020
Florist Zhong Wenping is usually racing around at this time of year,
preparing for Valentine’s Day. But this year her flower shop in Jingshan, a
small city in central Hubei province, is quiet.
Like many places in the province at the centre of a deadly coronavirus outbreak, the streets of Jingshan are
empty. Wedding banquets and other events are on hold. The shops are shut, as
are cinemas, karaoke bars, restaurants and even banks. Checkpoints and guard
posts have been set up at the entrance to every public building, and
residential communities are in lockdown as authorities try to contain the
outbreak that is believed to have started at a live animal and seafood market
in the provincial capital Wuhan in December.
Since then, the virus – which causes a disease now officially known as
Covid-19 – has
killed more than 1,300 people and infected over 59,000 in China, and
it has spread to more than 20 other countries.
“It should have been the busiest day of the year for me because the
Lunar New Year holiday is over and everyone should have been back to work,”
Zhong said.
“I should have started preparing roses a week ago, but people haven’t
been able to leave their homes since late last month – let alone do any
celebrating,” she said. “Also, how can you really sterilise flowers?”
More
Oil Tankers Idling Off Shandong Show Depth of Demand Destruction
Bloomberg News
February 13, 2020, 7:43 AM GMT
·
Two ships idling for at least 20 days; avg. wait
less than 5
·
Qingdao port says discharge of crude inventory
has slowed
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