Tuesday, 22 April 2025

Trump v Powell Kills Stocks And The Dollar. Gold Soars.

Baltic Dry Index. 1261 Thurs.      Brent Crude 66.63

Spot Gold 3481               US 2 Year Yield 3.75 -0.06

US Federal Debt. 36.755 trillion!!!

“Do you see over yonder, friend Starmer, thirty or forty hulking giants? I intend to do battle with them and slay them.”

President Trump, with apologies to Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Don Quixote

No need for my input today, the articles below speak loudly for themselves.

Asia-Pacific markets subdued after Trump’s attack on Fed chair sends Wall Street tumbling

Updated Tue, Apr 22 2025 10:47 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were subdued Tuesday, tracking Wall Street’s sell-off after U.S. President Donald Trump doubled down on his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 as well as the Topix were trading flat. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.19% and the small-cap Kosdaq inched 0.16% higher.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.63%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.25%. Mainland China’s CSI 300 slipped 0.17% at the open.

U.S. stock futures were nearly flat. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 18 points. Both the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures also traded near the flatline.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages fell following Trump’s attacks on Powell, raising questions about the central bank’s independence, while traders received few signs of progress on global trade talks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 971.82 points, or 2.48% to close at 38,170.41. The S&P 500 shed 2.36% and ended at 5,158.20, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 2.55% to settle at 15,870.90.

Powell noted last week that the Fed’s independence is a “matter of law.” Markets are trying to weigh how serious the termination threat is, versus jawboning for lower rates, ANZ economists wrote.

Asia-Pacific markets live: Trump, Fed chair Powell

US Stocks Tank Again as Trump Calls Fed Chair Names

April 21, 2025 at 11:39 PM GMT+1

Donald Trump sent the US stock market plummeting again, this time with social media snark and derisive playground nicknames aimed at the Chair of the US Federal Reserve. The president, under increasing pressure for singlehandedly destabilizing global markets with his trade war, has turned his attention to interest rates in a bid to avoid what economists increasingly fear is a recession dead ahead. Trump’s public mulling over whether he can legally fire Powell have market watchers eyeing a potential broad-based loss of confidence in the US economy if he were to try it

Donald Trump sent the US stock market plummeting again, this time with social media snark and derisive playground nicknames aimed at the Chair of the US Federal Reserve. The president, under increasing pressure for singlehandedly destabilizing global markets with his trade war, has turned his attention to interest rates in a bid to avoid what economists increasingly fear is a recession dead ahead. Trump’s public mulling over whether he can legally fire Powell have market watchers eyeing a potential broad-based loss of confidence in the US economy if he were to try it

US Stocks Tank Again as Trump Calls Fed Chair Powell Names - Bloomberg

Asia fights drag from Wall St as US assets buckle

22 April 2025

SYDNEY (Reuters) - Asian stock markets fought to hold their footing on Tuesday after a furious flight from U.S. assets undermined Wall Street and the dollar, while concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve piled fresh pressure on Treasuries.

Relatively limited losses in Asia sparked talk that funds could be reallocating money to equities in the area, though the impact of tariffs on economic growth remained a major drag.

President Donald Trump's increasingly vocal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting interest rates saw Wall Street indexes shed around 2.5% on Monday and the dollar hit three-year lows.

"The 'sell America' trade was in full flight," said Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at NAB.

"Whether or not President Trump is legally able and willing to move against the Fed, the jousting underscores the loss of U.S. exceptionalism and the very real policy risk for investors."

The selling did abate somewhat in Asia, allowing S&P 500 futures to bounce 0.4% and Nasdaq futures 0.5%.

The market faces another test from earnings this week, with Tesla due later in the session, having already shed almost 6% on Monday amid reports of production delays.

Also reporting this week are Alphabet and a host of high-profile industrials including Boeing, Northrop Grumman, Lockheed Martin and 3M.

The fallout from Wall Street saw Japan's Nikkei ease a modest 0.3%, while MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dipped 0.2%. Chinese blue chips were holding steady for now.

European shares were less fortunate, with futures for the EUROSTOXX 50, FTSE and DAX all down around 0.7% in choppy trading.

LOSS OF FAITH

Yields on U.S. 10-year notes stood at 4.40%, having climbed on fears the White House could try and replace Powell with someone more inclined to cut rates, even as inflation was being lifted by Trump's swingeing tariffs.

There was also the concern that the current Fed might now be more reluctant to ease policy in case that was perceived as giving into political pressure.

While White House talks on various trade deals are underway or about to start, a quick resolution seemed unlikely. Analysts at JPMorgan noted the average trade deal took 18 months to negotiate and 45 months to implement.

"We reiterate our view that if current policies do not change, then the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 is 90%," they said in a note.

More

Asia fights drag from Wall St as US assets buckle

Gold maintains record rally following Trump's criticism of Fed chief

22 April 2025

(Reuters) - Gold prices continued their record rally on Tuesday, driven by concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which dampened risk sentiment and drove investors towards the safe-haven bullion.

Spot gold was up 1.4% at $3,472.49 an ounce, as of 0247 GMT, after touching a record high of $3,473.03 per ounce earlier in the session.

U.S. gold futures firmed 1.7% to $3,482.40.

"Investors have been giving a wide berth to U.S. assets amid tariff worries and Trump-Powell dramas, which has kept gold in prime position to capitalise on the dollar's woes," said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.

Trump reiterated his call for an immediate reduction in interest rates on Monday, warning that the U.S. economy could face a slowdown, while criticizing Powell's stance to keep rates unchanged until clarity on the inflation impact of Trump's tariff plans.

Asian stock markets struggled to maintain stability following a rapid sell-off of U.S. assets that weakened Wall Street and the dollar. [MKTS/GLOB][USD/]

On Monday, China accused Washington of abusing tariffs and warned countries against striking a broader economic deal with the U.S. at its expense.

More

Gold maintains record rally following Trump's criticism of Fed chief

In other news.

Trump tariffs could lead to a summer drop-off in economic activity after an ‘artificially high’ start, Chicago Fed chief says

Published Sun, Apr 20 2025 1:59 PM EDT Updated Sun, Apr 20 2025 2:14 PM EDT

Business owners and CEOs are already stocking up on inventory, and some American shoppers are panic buying big-ticket items in anticipation of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The sudden buying binge could cause an “artificially high” level of economic activity, said Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee.

“That kind of preemptive purchasing is probably even more pronounced on the business side,” Goolsbee told CBS’ “Face The Nation” on Sunday, adding: “We heard a lot about preemptive building-up of inventories that could last 60 days, 90 days, if there [was] going to be more uncertainty.”

Businesses stockpiling inventory and consumers accelerating their purchasing decisions — buying an Apple iPhone now, say, rather than waiting until the fall — may inflate U.S. economic activity in April and lead to a slowdown in the coming months, Goolsbee suggested.

“Activity might look artificially high in the initial, and then by the summer, might fall off — because people have bought it all,” he said.

Sectors affected by Trump’s tariffs, particularly the auto industry, are most likely to heavily stock up on inventory now before import levies on goods from other countries potentially rise further, said Goolsbee. Many car parts, electronic components and other big-ticket consumer items are manufactured in China, for example, which currently faces a 145% total tariff rate on goods imported to the United States.

Trump’s tariffs on a bevy of other countries are currently in the middle of a 90-day pause, with a 10% baseline tariff rate instead applying to all imported goods across the board. The pause is due to expire on July 9, with Trump touting a series of rate negotiations with foreign leaders between now and then.

“We don’t know, 90 days from now, when they’ve revisited the tariffs, we don’t know how big they’re going to be,” Goolsbee said.

Some U.S. business owners who buy goods manufactured in China say they already can’t afford to place rush orders on inventory. Matt Rollens, owner and CEO of Granite Bay, California-based novelty drinkware company Dragon Glassware, says he’s temporarily holding his products in China because paying the 145% levy would force him to raise consumer prices by at least 50%, likely drying up customer demand.

More

Trump tariffs could cause summer economic slump: Chicago Fed president

U.S. chip controls will benefit China’s Nvidia rivals like Huawei: Analysts 

Published Mon, Apr 21 2025 2:01 AM EDT

As the U.S. tightens controls on Nvidia’s sales to China, the country’s rising domestic artificial intelligence chipmakers like Huawei stand to benefit, semiconductor analysts say. 

The Commerce Department said last week that Nvidia’s H20 graphics processing units — designed to comply with previous U.S. restrictions — would now require export licenses, as would additional chips from AMD. Nvidia says it has already halted exports of the GPUs, resulting in a quarterly charge of approximately $5.5 billion. 

But the American AI darling’s loss could be a gain for China’s local AI chip players as Beijing continues to search for its own Nvidia alternative, semiconductor analysts told CNBC. 

“There are several local Chinese companies that produce chips to compete with Nvidia,” said Brady Wang, associate director at Counterpoint Research. 

Examples of these local AI chipmakers include tech powerhouse Huawei and the partially state-owned and publicly listed Cambricon Technologies, which designs GPUs. 

Shares of Cambricon were up over 10% in the past five trading days amid news of the latest Nvidia controls. The stock is up over 400% in the past 12 months. 

These local competitors now have greater impetus and opportunity to grow and improve their solutions, Wang said, adding that he expects that demand for their GPUs will increase.

Can China fill the gap?

Analysts pointed to Huawei as a clear leader in China’s race to find a Nvidia competitor. The U.S.-blacklisted company has been working on its own “Ascend 910” GPU series, the latest of which is reportedly the Ascend 910C.

“With NVIDIA’s H20 and other advanced GPUs restricted, domestic alternatives like Huawei’s Ascend series are gaining traction,” said Doug O’Laughlin, an industry analyst at independent semiconductor research company SemiAnalysis.

recent report from SemiAnalysis states that although Huawei remains “a generation behind in chips,” the company is “making waves” with the hardware that uses them.

“While there are still gaps in software maturity and overall ecosystem readiness, hardware performance is closing in fast,” O’Laughlin added. 

However, experts note that export controls have also hindered China’s ability to produce advanced GPUs at the same scale that Nvidia can through its partner Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest contract chip maker.

“Huawei has shown to be a competitive fabless chip designer ... but they struggle to find enough supply from their foundries,” said Phelix Lee, a semiconductor-focused equity analyst for Morningstar. 

Because TSMC’s chipmaking equipment includes U.S. technology, the company has complied with U.S. trade restrictions on Huawei and the shipment of advanced chips to China. That has left Chinese companies increasingly reliant on domestic foundries like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation.

Nevertheless, SMIC is under its own export controls, which prevents it from accessing some of the world’s most advanced chipmaking equipment.

Given those conditions, Lee said, he remains “very skeptical” that Chinese chip foundries would be able to supply enough H20 GPU alternatives to meet the demand of Chinese tech companies anytime soon.

Are export controls working?

However, experts say that Chinese chip makers won’t need to immediately fill this H20 demand thanks to stockpiles and previous export exemptions and loopholes. 

More

U.S. chip controls boon for China Nvidia rivals like Huawei: Analysts 

“Your grace, come back, President Don Quixote, I swear to God you're charging sheep!”

With apologies to Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Don Quixote

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Sell USA? Why Trump's tariffs may be sparking a historic storm on Wall Street

April 21, 2025 5:00 AM ET

For decades, the U.S. financial system has been regarded as one of the most stable and powerful in the world. Now, there are fears that something unprecedented may be happening as a result of President Trump's tariffs: Investors everywhere may be losing their faith in the United States.

The concerns come as Wall Street is being convulsed by an extremely rare event: Stocks, U.S. government bonds, and the dollar are all taking a hit at the same time — and not everybody can agree on why.

The most pessimistic fear is that the sell-offs mean that investors around the world are losing trust in the U.S. as a result of Trump's unpredictable policies — and they are therefore cutting their investments across the board.

If true, it would represent a seismic change in the global financial system, in which the U.S. is no longer considered as a haven.

And it matters in the U.S. as well. Foreign investors' confidence in the United States is critical — not only to the trillions of dollars tied up in this country's financial markets, but to the American way of life.

Here are five key questions about the financial storm that President Trump may have unleashed.

What is happening in the markets?

As soon as Trump unveiled his tariffs on April 2, stock markets plummeted all over the world. That was not a surprise. Stocks tend to immediately react to big news — good and bad. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has recovered somewhat after Trump paused many of his tariffs, but it's still down more than 7% since his initial announcement.

But typically, at times of intense turmoil, investors rush to buy U.S. government bonds and the dollar. And for good reason.

U.S. Treasury bond, or just Treasuries as they are usually known, are widely considered among the safest holdings in the world, sold — and backed — by the economic might of Uncle Sam. And the dollar is the world's biggest currency, used everywhere from buying gas at your local station to paying for business transactions around the globe.

A simultaneous fall in all markets — from a country's stocks to its currency — happens occasionally in emerging economies, such as when the Asian financial crisis swept the region in the late 1990s.

It has rarely happened in the U.S., according to many who follow the market.

So why are stocks, bonds and the dollar all falling at the same time?

That's what even the smartest minds on Wall Street are debating.

One explanation is that it has to do with sophisticated investors, both foreign and domestic, adjusting their portfolios based on tariff news that stunned most people in financial markets.

After all, many investors had believed Trump was just using tariffs as negotiating ploy. Instead, his tariffs are so sweeping they threaten to kickstart a new global economic order. Some analysts compare it to when President Nixon delinked the U.S. dollar from gold, in what became known as the "Nixon Shock."

But there's another explanation for why all three markets fell: What if the sell-off represented the moment the U.S. lost the trust of global investors — and now means that U.S. bonds and the dollar are no longer considered to be among the world's safest investments?

After all, in less than 100 days, Trump has also unsettled investors with chaotic firings across the federal workforce, pushed to acquire Greenland, expressed a desire to "take back" the Panama Canal, and said Canada should become the 51st state, among many other actions.

Taken all together, it's creating what markets hate most: Unpredictability. — and Wall Street fears it's making foreign investors lose confidence in the U.S. as a result.

More

Trump’s tariffs may have upended the global financial system : NPR

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.


Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

New graphene-based flash memory writes data in 400 picoseconds, shattering all speed records

"PoX" can execute 25 billion operations every second

By Skye Jacobs April 19, 2025 at 2:09 PM

What just happened? Researchers at Fudan University in Shanghai have unveiled a flash memory device that breaks speed records once thought unreachable. Dubbed "PoX," the device can program data in just 400 picoseconds, or four hundred trillionths of a second, making it the fastest semiconductor charge storage device ever recorded.

To put this achievement into perspective, PoX can perform 25 billion operations per second – surpassing the previous world record for similar technology by a factor of 100,000.

The implications are profound, particularly for the fast-moving field of artificial intelligence. As AI models continue to grow in complexity and scale, their soaring computational demands are pushing existing memory technologies to their limits. Traditional volatile memories like static RAM and dynamic RAM offer impressive speeds – typically writing data in under a nanosecond – but they lose all stored information when power is cut.

Non-volatile memories like flash storage retain data without power and consume significantly less energy than volatile counterparts, but they've traditionally lagged in speed – often requiring microseconds to milliseconds for data access.

A research team at Fudan University, led by Professor Zhou Peng of the State Key Laboratory of Integrated Chips and Systems, set out to close this performance gap by rethinking the physical structure of flash memory. Rather than using conventional silicon, the researchers turned to graphene – a two-dimensional material celebrated for its remarkable electrical properties – and implemented a Dirac band structure.

By leveraging graphene's ballistic transport behavior and precisely tuning the Gaussian length of the memory channel, they developed a mechanism they call "super-injection." This process enables an almost unrestricted flow of charge into the storage layer, effectively eliminating the speed bottleneck that has limited non-volatile memory for decades.

According to Zhou Peng, the difference is staggering. "This is like the device working 1 billion times in the blink of an eye, while a typical USB flash drive can only work 1,000 times. The previous world record for similar technology was 2 million."

The potential applications for PoX reach well beyond faster consumer electronics. In the realm of artificial intelligence, the speed at which data can be accessed and processed is a key limiter of overall computing performance. As AI models become increasingly data-intensive, storage systems capable of keeping pace with processors are critical. With its unprecedented speed and low power consumption, PoX could enable real-time processing of massive datasets while also curbing the energy demands of data movement, one of the major inefficiencies in today's AI hardware.

New graphene-based flash memory writes data in 400 picoseconds, shattering all speed records | TechSpot

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

“When life itself seems lunatic, who knows where madness lies? Perhaps to be too practical is madness. To surrender dreams — this may be madness. Too much sanity may be madness — and maddest of all: to see life as it is, and not as it should be!”

Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra, Don Quixote.

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