Baltic
Dry Index. 1403 +30
Brent Crude 66.34
Spot Gold 3311 US 2 Year Yield 3.67 -0.07
US Federal Debt. 36.784 trillion!!!
There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.
Andrew Mellon, US Treasury Secretary, 1929.
With the massive power outage in Spain and Portugal, plus the Liberal Party win in Canada well covered in mainstream media, today’s update will stick to the prospect of the US and global economies stumbling into President Trump’s tariff war quicksand.
In the stock casinos, fading bravado. The great Trump tariff wrecking ball is already swinging and starting to hit in the real global economy, but we haven’t seen anything yet.
Wait until rising prices and rising
unemployment hit at the same time, most likely starting in June.
European stocks head for mixed open as investors
eye tariff impact on earnings
Updated Tue, Apr 29 2025 12:42 AM EDT
European markets are heading for a mixed
open on Tuesday, as investors parse earnings for the impact of U.S. tariffs and
resultant global economic uncertainty.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed
higher the last five sessions and has returned to a year-to-date gain despite
sharp selling in March and April on tariff fears. A flurry of corporate results
could now cloud or brighten the picture in the weeks ahead.
Tuesday’s announcements come from firms
such as Lufthansa, Volvo Cars, Adidas, Carlsberg, BP, AstraZeneca, Deutsche Bank and Novartis.
Europe’s largest lender HSBC beat estimates in the
early hours despite year-on-year
falls in profit and revenue.
Data is due on Spanish economic growth,
ahead of the figure for the wider euro zone on Wednesday.
Traders will also be keeping an eye on
U.S. jobs market data out at 10 a.m. ET for clues on the health of the world’s
largest economy and the impact on Federal Reserve rates policy.
Asia-Pacific
markets were mostly higher on Tuesday, while U.S.
stock futures were near-flat ahead of Wall Street’s own earnings bonanza.
Europe stocks open to close: earnings, tariffs and data in focus
S&P 500 futures are little changed after broad
index notches fifth straight winning day: Live updates
Updated Tue, Apr 29 2025 12:05 AM EDT
S&P 500 futures were
near the flatline on Tuesday morning, after the fifth straight winning session
for the benchmark, as investors awaited more earnings reports.
Futures tied to the broad index edged up
0.14%, while Nasdaq 100
futures moved up 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures ticked
up 50 points, or 0.12%.
Those moves come after the S&P 500 eked
out a gain of less than 0.1% on Monday, allowing the index to keep its
winning streak alive. The Dow added
about 0.3%, while the Nasdaq
Composite ticked 0.1% lower.
The three major indexes swung between
gains and losses in the choppy session. The Dow tumbled more than 240 points at
its low and rallied around 300 points at the day’s high. The S&P 500 and
Nasdaq both traded more than 1% in the red at session lows before taking a leg
up in afternoon trading.
“Any pullbacks have turned to be buyable,”
said Larry Tentarelli, founder of the Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, of the
recent market action. “I think the bulls are back in control.”
Investors are gearing up for a busy
earnings week, with about one-third of S&P 500-listed firms slated to post
results between Monday and Friday. Big Tech is of particular focus, with Meta Platforms and Microsoft expected on
Wednesday and Apple and Amazon scheduled for
Thursday.
Of the more than 36% of S&P 500
companies that have reported so far this season, about 73% have exceeded Wall
Street expectations, according to FactSet. That’s modestly below the 5-year
average of 77%, per FactSet.
Traders will also monitor economic data on
home prices, consumer confidence and job openings due Tuesday morning.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Port Of Los Angeles Warns 'Difficult Decisions'
Ahead As Shipments From China Cease
04:03 PM ET 04/28/202
President Donald Trump's trade war
policies are expected to bring about a 35% decline in cargo arriving at the
Port of Los Angeles by next week as "essentially all shipments out of
China for major retailers and manufacturers have ceased," according to
Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka.
Seroka's warning came during the port's
board of harbor commissioners meeting on April 24, with the executive director
saying that retailers and manufacturers typically put in orders to factories in
Asia around three to four months in advance of shipments and that Trump's
90-day pause on the broad "reciprocal" tariffs resulted in no
"real difference" for businesses.
The Los Angeles Port head added on
Thursday that U.S. exporters are also getting "hit hard" by
retaliatory tariffs amid Trump's trade war. Seroka said the sectors include
agriculture, heavy-duty manufacturing and information technology services.
"U.S. ag exporters are having an
especially challenging time, so much so that in March, China bought more
soybeans from Brazil in one month than ever in their history," Seroka
said.
Meanwhile, major retailers have told
Seroka that they have about a six- to eight-week supply of inventory but that
"will quickly dry up." The Los Angeles Port is the major point of
entry for cargo ships from China and Southeast Asia into the U.S.
"United States consumers and
manufacturers alike will find difficult decisions in the weeks and months to
come if policies don't change," Seroka said.
The warnings from Seroka come amid
continued back and forth over tariffs and possible deals between the U.S. and
China. The uncertainty has led to a decrease in shipping volumes from China to
North America, with cancellations currently at 50%, according to global
logistics firm Flexport.
More
Empty shelves, trucking layoffs lead to a summer
recession in Apollo’s shocking trade fight timeline
Published Mon, Apr 28 2025 1:32 PM EDT Updated
Mon, Apr 28 2025 2:58 PM EDT
The economic impact of the tariffs imposed
by the Trump administration will soon become apparent to everyday Americans and
lead to a recession this summer, according to Apollo Global Management.
Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo,
laid out a timeline in a presentation for clients that showed when the impact
of tariffs announced by President Donald Trump could hit the
U.S. economy. Based on the transport time required for goods from China, U.S.
consumers could start to notice trade-related shortages in their local stores
next month, according to the presentation.
“The consequence will be empty shelves in
US stores in a few weeks and Covid-like shortages for consumers and for firms
using Chinese products as intermediate goods,” Slok wrote in a note to clients
Friday.
Tariff to recession timeline:
- April
2: Tariffs announced, containership departures from China to U.S. slowing
- Early-to-mid
May: Containerships to U.S. ports come to a stop
- Mid-to-late
May: Trucking demand comes to a halt, leading to empty shelves and lower
sales for companies
- Late
May to early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industries
- Summer
2025: recession
Source: Apollo Global Management
To support the idea that the U.S. economy
is on the verge of recession, the presentation also included data that shows
new orders for business, earnings outlooks and capital spending plans have all
fallen sharply in recent weeks.
More
Empty
shelves, trucking layoffs lead to recession in Apollo's trade war timeline
In other news.
Mr Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed that he saw no recession risk in France or in Europe, as inflation continued to decline.
Well, if he says so, he must be right, right?.
But remember poor old optimist Andrew Mellon. He quickly went from smelling of
melons in 1929 to stinking of durian in 1930.
Trump's tariff wars 'are not working,' says
France's chief banker highlighting US recession fears
28 April 2025
Donald Trump’s tariff wars
“are not working,” says the head of the Bank of France.
Francois Villeroy de Galhau, who is also a
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker, slammed the uncertainty the US president’s
wave of import levies has sparked in economies and markets around the world.
But Mr Villeroy de Galhau stressed: “We
are in a moment of great uncertainty ... Mr Trump’s policies are not working.
“The policies of this Trump administration
are playing against the US economy and unfortunately also against the world
economy.”
Noting that some economists were even
expecting a recession in the United States, he added on RTL Radio:
“Protectionism does not work, it means less growth and more inflation.”
The downgrade is the biggest for a major
economy.
The IMF also cut its growth forecast for
Britain by 0.5 percentage points to 1.1% for 2025, compared to its January
prediction, and hiked expected inflation by 0.7 percentage points to 3.1%.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been in
Washington for talks on a US-UK trade deal to try to limit the tariffs on Britain,
of 10%, and 25% for cars, steel and aluminium.
Amid the economic
mayhem, Americans are losing faith in Trump’s handling of the economy after his
tariff moves wiped trillions off the value of shares around the world.
Millions of Americans face being hit with
price rises due to the US import levies, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick
has admitted.
Trump has already
started exempting some goods, including smartphones, computers and some other
electronic devices from “reciprocal” tariffs, to limit the impact of his
controversial policies on US citizens.
The US president massively hiked tariffs
on goods from China, to 145% or more,
but now appears ready to try to avoid a full scale trade war with Beijing.
He is believed to be listening to his
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is not a tariffs hawk.
Germany will see no growth in 2025,
according to the IMF, France 0.6 per cent, Italy 0.4 per cent, Japan 0.6 per
cent and Canada 1.4%.
Mr Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed that he
saw no recession risk in France or in Europe, as inflation continued to
decline.
“We still have a gradual margin for rate
cuts,” he said.
ECB policymakers are becoming increasingly
confident about cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues its march
lower, but there is little to no appetite for a big move, six sources told
Reuters last week.
The ECB trimmed its benchmark rate to
2.25% earlier this month.
Trump's tariff
wars 'are not working,' says France's chief banker highlighting US recession
fears
Trade War Monitor
29 April 2025
Beijing has repeatedly denied rumors of
any trade talks with Washington in recent days, while actively introducing
policy measures to support the economy and sustain the momentum of its
recovery. The latest round of service sector liberalization across 11 provinces
and cities demonstrates the central government’s efforts to strengthen economic
resilience amid escalating tariffs.
Meanwhile, the impact of tariffs on various industries continues to kick in,
with the former WTO chief Pascal Lamy warning of a “mutual embargo” between the
world’s two largest economies. A recent survey shows that nearly 50% of Chinese
exporters intend to reduce business with the United States because of the
rising trade friction, while more than 75% are turning to emerging markets to
offset losses.
However, the China-U.S. trade war could mean trade opportunities for other
countries. As São Paulo Mayor Ricardo Nunes pointed out in an interview with
Caixin, business opportunities could be created for Brazil to partner with
Beijing in certain sectors. And according to the Swiss foreign minister, China
and Switzerland are aiming to accelerate negotiations to upgrade their free
trade agreement.
We will continue to closely monitor this economic warfare so our readers are
better prepared for the impacts to come.
No tariff talks
China isn’t engaged in any trade talks
with the U.S., a foreign ministry spokesperson said Monday, adding that
President Xi Jinping has not spoken with his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump
recently. President Trump’s tone has softened in recent days, saying that the
current tariffs are “too high” and previously claiming that his administration
was “talking to China” after Beijing “reached out a number of times.” In
response to a question on the topic, a spokesperson said last week “This is
misinformation. To my knowledge, China and the United States have not engaged
in consultations or negotiations regarding the tariff issue.”
Beijing’s economic support
China’s top leadership has vowed to roll
out more support for the country’s economy as the impact of external shocks has
increased. The meeting of the Politburo, chaired by President Xi Jinping
Friday, said that the foundation of China’s economic recovery needs to be
enhanced and requires a “proactive” policy stance, including lower interest
rates, a more active fiscal policy and support for technological innovation and
grassroots consumption. It also called for more efforts to defuse internal
risks from local government debt and the property market.
Economic aid
China is implementing coordinated fiscal
and monetary policies to stabilize employment and stimulate economic growth
amid U.S. tariff hikes. The country’s top economic planner outlined measures
including job support, aid for exporters, expanded investment in
infrastructure, and initiatives to encourage consumers to buy more cars and
services. At the same time, China’s central bank announced plans for new
structural monetary tools and financial support for targeted parts of the
economy like tech innovations and service industries like tourism.
More
Trade War
Monitor: China Repeatedly Denies Rumors of Trade Talks With U.S.
Once I built a railroad, I made
it run
Made it race against time
Once I built a railroad, now it's done
Brother, can you spare a dime?
Once I built a tower up to the
sun
Brick and rivet and lime
Once I built a tower, now it's done
Brother, can you spare a dime?
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
CEOs
are in distress and consumers fear job losses amid ‘stagflation shock,’
economist warns
April
27, 2025
·
Stagflation is the combination of slow growth and
rising inflation and
trade wars are a "stagflation shock," according to Apollo Global
Management.
In a new research note coauthored by chief economist Torsten Slok, the firm
predicts a sequence of events that could lead to economic catastrophe.
The
recent array
of tariffs the
Trump administration has announced have the potential to trigger a recession by
summer 2025, according to a new report from Apollo
Global Management.
Based
on Apollo’s potential sequence of events, shipping containers from China to the
U.S. slowed
down after
President Trump’s Liberation Day tariff address this month. Allowing for
20-to-40 days travel time, containers shipped to U.S. ports could halt in May.
By mid-May, that would portend a rapid slowdown in demand
for trucking,
which would be followed by less stock in stores for people to purchase. With
those signs, that would mean sluggish sales in spring, while subsequent layoffs
in retail and trucking could come by late May and early June. Then, in summer
2025, a full recession could take root.
The
Apollo report, co-authored by chief economist Torsten Slok, associate director
Rajvi Shah, and associate Shruti Galwankar, paints a bleak economic outlook and
is essentially a warning that the U.S. economy is rapidly on pace for a
recession due to trade disruptions.
Warning
signs have already appeared even though Trump’s tariff plan was only announced
weeks ago. The Apollo report specifically identifies trade wars as a source of
stagflation shock because they cause economic activity to lag due to
disruptions in supply chain and lower trade volumes. At the same time, the
trade standoffs typically raise prices on the cost of imported goods while
reducing competition. The dreaded stagflation results from
a combination of slower or stagnating growth and increased inflation. There
hasn’t been a sustained
period of
major stagflation in four decades.
The
Apollo research note warns important business sentiment indicators are dropping
in short order and the way consumers are responding is cause for serious
concern.
Waning
CEO Confidence
Chief
Executive’s most
recent survey of
CEO confidence shows declining optimism, with 62% of top execs now predicting a
slowdown or recession in six months.
CEOs
surveyed who predicted a severe recession rose from 9% in March to 14% in
April, Chief Executive’s monthly survey found. Furthermore, some
84% of CEOs reported anticipated revenue growth at the start of the year, while
only 49% predicted that revenues would grow in 2025 when CEOs were queried
again in April.
Only
9% of CEOs expected a revenue decrease at the start of the year, compared to
44% in the April survey.
A
steep falloff in CEO optimism is coupled with a similar decline in a positive
outlook among consumers.
Plummeting
Consumer Sentiment
In
a new
chart on
Sunday, Slok, Apollo’s chief economist, noted that a new record high share of
households are only making minimum payments on credit card balances.
The Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revealed that credit card balances
are showing signs of “consumer distress.” The percent of accounts making
minimum payments hit a 12-year high based on the Fed’s data, while delinquency
metrics were close to or set new highs.
At
the same time, people are increasingly worried they will lose their jobs, the
Apollo report shows.
More
CEOs are in
distress and consumers fear job losses amid ‘stagflation shock,’ economist
warns
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
FDA
may ask Novavax to conduct additional trials of its Covid-19 vaccine to receive
full approval
April
27, 2025
The
US Food and Drug Administration has discussed with vaccine-maker Novavax the
need for an additional trial of its Covid-19 vaccine as a post-approval
commitment, a source familiar with the matter told CNN.
The
terms need to be negotiated before Novavax’s vaccine could be granted full
approval, the source said, declining to be named because they weren’t
authorized to speak on behalf of the FDA.
The
Novavax Covid-19 vaccine, which uses more traditional protein-based technology
than the newer mRNA vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna, has been subject
to emergency use authorization since 2022. But with FDA
action, it would be the third vaccine against Covid-19 to receive full FDA
approval, which could provide additional reassurance to people seeking the
shot.
More
FDA may ask Novavax to conduct additional trials of its Covid-19 vaccine to receive full approval
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Graphene electroluminescence, an unexpected discovery!
April 28, 2025
For the first time, electroluminescence has
been observed in a metal-like material thanks to the use of high-quality
graphene.
Semiconductor-based light-emitting diodes
(LEDs) have revolutionized consumer lighting by reducing power consumption
fivefold. They have gradually replaced incandescent bulbs, which produce light
through thermal radiation from a metal filament.
Between these conductive metals and the semiconductors used in
LEDs lies graphene, a two-dimensional semi-metallic material that could be
described as "intermediate," as it exhibits properties of both.
Unsurprisingly, for example, under high voltage, it displays well-documented
incandescence (in the visible and near-infrared range).
In 2018, measurements of electrical current
fluctuations suggested that electrons in high-quality graphene could reach an
out-of-equilibrium state favorable for light emission via electroluminescence.
However, this prediction, surprising for a material lacking a bandgap, required
experimental confirmation.
In a paper published in the journal Nature,
the result of a French collaboration, a group of French researchers
demonstrates for the first time that, under certain conditions, graphene can
emit light beyond its natural incandescence by entering an electroluminescence
regime. This emission (in the mid-infrared range) at a wavelength of 6.5 µm is
possible when the graphene crystal is exceptionally pure and defect-free, while
being protected from external physicochemical damage by a matrix of
two-dimensional material composed of hexagonal boron nitride.
This discovery was accompanied by a second
surprise: in this graphene electroluminescence regime, researchers observed an
exceptional increase in the efficiency of near-field electromagnetic energy
transfer within the graphene/boron nitride stack.
Using infrared pyrometry—a technique
commonly employed to assess building heat loss with an infrared
camera—researchers demonstrated that graphene electrons transfer most of the
electrical power injected into the device to the substrate via specific elementary
excitations of the encapsulating material (hyperbolic phonon-polaritons of
boron nitride).
Until now, this radiative transfer
mechanism, though known in semiconductor-based LEDs, was considered anecdotal
due to its very low efficiency. Here, it becomes the dominant energy transfer
mechanism (up to 75%).
Finally, the consortium showed that this
energy transfer critically depends on the crystalline quality of the graphene
encapsulant. Indeed, by using boron nitride produced via a polymer ceramization
method, it is possible to suppress near-field electromagnetic transfer without
altering the system's electrical characteristics.
The researchers' goal is now to exploit graphene's semi-metallic
nature to induce electroluminescence at arbitrary wavelengths. This variability
would clearly distinguish graphene from semiconductors, whose emission
wavelength is constrained by the bandgap value. In the long term, the
unprecedented flexibility of this type of source could pave the way for
applications in optics, telecommunications, and electronics.
Graphene
electroluminescence, an unexpected discovery! 💡
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
I see
nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants
pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity
in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady
progress.
Andrew Mellon, US Treasury
Secretary, 1930.
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