Baltic Dry Index. 1241 -22 Brent Crude 66.56
Spot Gold 3340 US 2 Year Yield 3.77 -0.07
US Federal Debt. 36.734 trillion!!!
Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them.
George Orwell
More wobble and sag in the US stock casinos as Trumps tariff disruption starts to bite.
In the Trump tariff war on the rest of the
world, Japan gets hit with collateral damage from uhfriendly fire.
Just wait until another 80 days or so and Trump’s tariff pause ends.
Asia markets mostly rise after Wall Street slides
overnight
Updated Thu, Apr 17 2025 12:36 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose Thursday,
breaking ranks with Wall Street which declined sharply after U.S. Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that the ongoing trade tensions could
challenge the central bank’s goals of controlling
inflation and spurring growth.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 opened 0.49% lower
while the broader BSE
Sensex fell 0.1%.
Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased
1.65% while Mainland China’s CSI
300 was flat in choppy trade.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose 0.85%, while
the broader Topix index added 0.83%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index was up 0.68%
while the small-cap Kosdaq moved up 1.52%, after the central
bank held interest rates at 2.75%, as expected by economists polled by
Reuters.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 increased
0.57%.
U.S. futures
were little changed given investors’ concerns that a global trade
would adversely impact economic growth in the country.
Overnight
stateside, stocks fell sharply after Powell warned that the trade tensions
could impact the Fed’s inflation and employment goals. The sell-off in Wall
Street was also triggered by a 6.9% plunge in the artificial intelligence
darling Nvidia’s shares.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost
699.57 points, or 1.73%, closing at 39,669.39. The S&P 500 dropped 2.24% to
end at 5,275.70, led down by the information technology sector. The Nasdaq Composite pulled back
3.07% to close at 16,307.16. The tech-heavy index ended the day about 19% off
its closing high, sliding closer to bear market territory.
Asia
markets live: stocks mostly rise
US markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn
restrictions on China exports
16 April 2025
US stock markets suffered more significant
losses on Wednesday, with stocks in leading AI chipmakers slumping after firms
said new restrictions on exports to China would cost them billions.
Nvidia fell 6.87% - and was at one point
down 10% - after revealing it would now need a US government licence to sell
its H20 chip.
Rival chipmaker AMD slumped 7.35% after it
predicted a $800m (£604m) charge due to its MI308 also needing a licence.
Dutch firm ASML, which makes hardware
essential to chip manufacturing, fell more than 5% after it missed order
expectations and said US tariffs created
uncertainty.
The losses filtered into the
tech-dominated Nasdaq index, which recovered slightly to end 3% down, while the
larger S&P 500 fell 2.2%.
Such losses would have been among the
worst in years were it not for the turmoil over recent weeks.
It comes as China remains the focus of
Donald Trump's tariff regime, with both countries imposing tit-for-tat charges
of over 100% on imports.
The US commerce department said in a
statement it was "committed to acting on the president's directive to
safeguard our national and economic security".
Nvidia's bespoke China chip is already
deliberately less powerful than products sold elsewhere after intervention from
the previous Biden administration.
However, the Trump government
is worried the H20 and others could still be used to build a supercomputer
in China,
threatening national security and US dominance in AI.
Nvidia said the
move would cost it around $5.5bn (£4.1bn) and the licensing requirement would
be in place for the "indefinite future".
Nvidia's recently announced a $500bn
(£378bn) investment to build infrastructure in America - something Mr Trump
heralded as a victory in his mission to boost US manufacturing.
However, it appears to have been too
little to stave off the new restrictions.
Pressure has also come from the Democrats,
with senator Elizabeth Warren writing to the commerce secretary and urging him
to limit chip sales to China.
Meanwhile, the head of US central bank
also warned on Wednesday that US tariffs could slow the economy and raise
inflation more than expected.
Jerome Powell said the bank would need
more time to decide on lowering interest rates.
"The level of the tariff increases
announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated," he said.
"The same is likely to be true of the
economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth."
Predictions of a recession in the US have
risen significantly since the president revealed details of the import taxes a
few weeks ago.
However, he subsequently paused the higher
rates for 90 days to allow for negotiations.
US
markets fall as AI chipmakers mourn restrictions on China exports
Global trade outlook has ‘deteriorated sharply’
amid Trump tariff uncertainty, WTO warns
Published Wed, Apr 16 2025 9:00 AM EDT Updated
Wed, Apr 16 2025 12:40 PM EDT
The World Trade Organization warned on
Wednesday that the outlook for global trade has “deteriorated sharply” in the
wake of U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariffs regime.
“The outlook for global trade has
deteriorated sharply due to a surge in tariffs and trade policy uncertainty,”
the WTO said in its latest “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics” report out
Wednesday.
Based on the tariffs currently in place,
and including a 90-day suspension of “reciprocal tariffs,” the volume of world
merchandise trade is now expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025, before posting a
“modest” recovery of 2.5% in 2026.
The decline is anticipated to be
particularly steep in North America, where exports are forecast to drop by
12.6% this year.
The WTO also warned that “severe downside
risks exist,” including the application of “reciprocal” tariffs and a broader
spillover of policy uncertainty, “which could lead to an even sharper decline
of 1.5% in global goods trade,” particularly hurting export-oriented,
least-developed countries.
The recent tariff disturbances follow a
strong year for world trade in 2024, during which merchandise trade grew 2.9%
and commercial services trade expanded by 6.8%, the WTO said.
The new estimate of a 0.2% decline in
world trade for 2025 is nearly 3 percentage points lower than it would have
been under a “low tariff” baseline scenario, the WTO added, and marks a
significant reversal from the start of the year when the trade body’s
economists expected to see continued trade expansion supported by improving
macroeconomic conditions.
“Risks to the forecast include the
implementation of the currently suspended reciprocal tariffs by the United
States, as well as a broader spillover of trade policy uncertainty beyond
U.S.-linked trade relationships,” the WTO said.
“If enacted, reciprocal tariffs would
reduce world merchandise trade growth by an additional 0.6 percentage points,
posing particular risks for least-developed countries (LDCs), while a spreading
of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) would shave off a further 0.8 percentage
points. Taken together, the reciprocal tariffs and spreading TPU would lead to
a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade volume in 2025.”
Trump stunned trading partners and global
markets in early April, when he announced a raft of so-called reciprocal
tariffs on imports from more than 180 countries. Beijing was hit the hardest of
all, with the U.S. duty on Chinese imports now effectively totaling 145%. China
in turn struck back at Washington with retaliatory tariffs of up
to 125% on U.S. imports.
The tariffs between China and the U.S.
will likely to lead to a “drastic contraction” of trade between the two, Ralph
Ossa, chief economist at the WTO, told CNBC’s Silvia Amaro on Wednesday.
More
Global
trade outlook for 2025 has 'deteriorated sharply,' WTO warns
US-China trade fight slams stocks, sends gold to
record high
16 April 2025
BOSTON/LONDON (Reuters) -Global shares
fell sharply on Wednesday as U.S. restrictions on chip sales to China and
continued tariff uncertainty battered tech stocks, while gold traded at record
highs and support for the dollar continued to erode.
----U.S. Federal Reserve Chair
Jerome Powell said on Wednesday the Fed would wait for more data on the
economy's direction before changing interest rates, and characterized recent
market volatility as a logical processing of the Trump administration's dramatic
shifts in tariff policy.
"Powell is doing what the rest of us
are doing - waiting and watching," Jamie Cox, managing partner for Harris
Financial Group, said in an email. "The Federal Reserve won't act unless
and until either the labor market turns or there is a systemic risk, such as a
breakdown in the payment system."
Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. retail
sales surged in March as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles ahead
of tariffs, though concerns about the economic outlook are hurting
discretionary spending.
----The World Trade Organization
sharply cut its forecast for global merchandise trade from solid growth to a
decline on Wednesday, saying further U.S. tariffs and spillover effects could
lead to the heaviest slump since the height of the pandemic.
TREASURIES DOWN, GOLD SHINES
The uncertainties left gold in an
unstoppable position, with bullion hitting another record high of $3,339 per
ounce, last up 3.5%.
Australian bank ANZ on Wednesday updated
its forecast for gold to hit $3,600 an ounce by year-end, saying safe-haven
demand for the asset would accelerate.
U.S. Treasury yields fell after comments
from the Fed's Powell stoked concerns about economic growth and inflation
pressures.
The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell
4 basis points to 4.283%, after yields surged last week on concerns about the
stability of the U.S. economy.
More
US-China
trade fight slams stocks, sends gold to record high
In other news.
Japan exports growth misses expectations, rising
by a modest 3.9% in March as tariffs bite
Published Wed, Apr 16 2025 8:02 PM EDT
Japan on Thursday reported a 3.9% rise in March
exports compared to a year earlier, a month after exports saw their largest
rise since May 2024.
The growth missed expectations of a 4.5%
rise from economists polled by Reuters, and was lower than the 11.4% jump in
February.
By region, Japanese exports increased the
most to the Middle East, recording a 17.1% rise, compared to the same period a
year ago.
Exports to the U.S., Japan’s
second-largest trading partner, saw a 3.1% rise.
March data does not include the full
impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The U.S. had announced tariffs
of 25% on auto imports effective April 3, and 25% levies on steel and aluminum
came into
effect on March 12.
Trump, however, has suspended his
“reciprocal” tariffs of 24% on Japan for 90 days, leaving a baseline tariff of
10%.
The trade data also comes as Japan’s is
locked in trade negotiations with the U.S. On Thursday, Trump said in a Truth Social post that there was “big progress” in the
talks, having earlier said that he would also be attending the trade
meeting. He also wrote that the talks will cover “tariffs, the cost of military
support, and ‘TRADE FAIRNESS.’”
Japan was reportedly the sixth largest steel exporter to the U.S. in 2024, and
Japanese car brands make up four of the top eight best selling brands in the
U.S, with Toyota taking the top spot.
Automobiles are Japan’s top export to the
U.S., accounting for 28.3% of all shipments in 2024, according to customs data.
Imports to Asia’s second largest economy
by GDP rose 2%, compared to expectations of a 3.1% rise from the Reuters poll.
Japan’s trade deficit narrowed to 544.1
billion yen, but was wider than the Reuters poll expectations of 485.3 billion
yen. The deficit in February stood at 590.5 billion yen.
“Japan is no longer the export powerhouse
it once was,” said Jesper Koll, expert director at financial services firm
Monex Group.
Koll told CNBC that while the yen has been weak, and the fear of tariffs could
boost exports via frontloading, China-made were replacing Japanese exports.
This meanz that “as US-China trade wars
escalate, Japan will be hurt even more as China will be forced to de-facto dump
the capacity it used to sell to America onto global markets,” he said.
Japan exports growth misses expectations, rising by a modest 3.9%
Trump orders tariff probe on all U.S. critical
mineral imports
Published Tue, Apr 15 2025 7:35 PM EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday
ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on all U.S. critical minerals
imports, a major escalation in his dispute with global trade partners and an
attempt to directly rebuke industry leader China.
The order lays bare what manufacturers,
industry consultants, academics and others have long warned Washington about:
that the U.S. is overly reliant on Beijing and others for processed versions of
the minerals that power its entire economy.
Trump signed an order at the White House
directing Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to start a national security probe
under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. That is the same law
Trump used in his first term to impose 25% global tariffs on steel and aluminum
and one he used in February to launch a probe into potential copper tariffs.
Market dynamics for all critical minerals
- including cobalt, nickel and the 17 rare earths - will be studied for
potential tariffs, according to the order, which added uranium and any other
elements that U.S. federal officials deem necessary.
The U.S. currently extracts and processes
scant amounts of lithium, has only one nickel mine but no nickel smelter, and
has no cobalt mine or refinery. While it has multiple copper mines, the U.S.
has only two copper smelters and is reliant on other nations to process that
key red metal.
“The dependence of the United States on
imports and the vulnerability of our supply chains raises the potential for
risks to national security, defense readiness, price stability, and economic
prosperity and resilience,” Trump said in the order.
Beijing earlier this month placed export
restrictions on rare earths in response to Trump’s recent broad tariffs. Rare
earths are a group of 17 elements used across the defense, electric vehicle,
energy and electronics industries. The United States has only one rare earths
mine and most of its processed supply comes from China.
Those restrictions from China were seen as
the latest demonstration of the country’s ability to weaponize its dominance
over the mining and processing of critical minerals after it put outright bans
on the export of three other metals last year to the U.S. and slapped export
controls on others.
Chinese mining companies across the globe
have been flooding markets with cheap supplies of many critical minerals in
recent years, fueling calls from industry and investors for action from
Washington to support U.S. projects.
Trump orders
tariff probe on all U.S. critical mineral imports
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Global fund managers warn of accelerating risk of recession in key survey
16
April 2025
The
world’s most powerful fund managers increasingly fear a recession will be
triggered by Donald Trump’s alarming new era of trade barriers.
Bank
of America’s
monthly Global Fund Manager Survey for
April shows a net 42% of respondents now expect a recession.
That
is the most since June 2023 and the 4th highest level in the past 20 years of
the survey.
It
also represents a remarkable flip from the previous month when a net 52% said a
recession was unlikely.
Overall
it was the 5th most bearish survey in the past 25 years with a record number of
global investors planning to to cut their exposure to US stocks.
A
net 82% of respondents say the global economy to set to weaken, a 30-year high.
There
was some good news for Britain with fund managers taking a more favourable view
of UK equities compared with the long-term average in the current volatile
markets.
It
showed that, in historical terms, investors are overweight in utilities, bonds,
staples and UK stocks, and are underweight tech, energy, industrials & US
stocks.
The
survey came as China has warned of the impact of Trump tariff shocks even as
its economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter year-on-year
The
numbers were better than forecasts but covered a period before US tariffs on
Chinese-made goods jumped from 10% to 145% .
China's
leader Xi Jinping is on a charm offensive tour of south east Asia, visiting
Malaysia today, and Cambodia next.
He
left Vietnam yesterday, where he signed a slate of agreements and told his
counterpart To Lam to "jointly oppose unilateral bullying".
South
East Asian countries face some of the highest US tariffs, including 46% for
Vietnam and 49% for Cambodia - before a 90-day pause was issued last week.
Global fund managers warn of accelerating risk of recession in key survey
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New Yorkers
revolt against ‘toxic’ new neighborhood battery storage facilities as backlash
grows to green energy law
April
14, 2025
It’s
the new not-in-my-backyard rage – and the latest blow to New York’s green
energy agenda.
New
Yorkers are lining up in opposition to dozens of new lithium-ion battery
storage facilities planned across the Big Apple and beyond, over fears they
could spark toxic infernos in residential neighborhoods.
Queens
Councilman Robert Holden said he doesn’t want his neighborhood to turn into a
potential “mini-Chernobyl” — a reference to the nuclear power plant disaster in
Ukraine on April 26, 1986 that released a mass amount of radioactive material
and forced the evacuation of more than 100,000 residents.
“Why
are we putting our children in a dangerous situation?” lifelong Middle Village
and stay-at-home mom, Graceann Faulkner, 50, told The Post at one recent
protest of a proposed NineDot Energy battery warehouse.
The
site, which is now vacant at 64-30 69th Place, stands next to a daycare and
preschool (Books & Rattles, Inc.), the Juniper Valley Animal Hospital and
also lies across the street from PS 128.
Faulkner
said she would pull her fifth grade daughter, Christina, out of PS 128, if
plans for the battery storage facility power ahead.
NineDot
Energy spokesperson Karen Alter, when contacted by The Post, said the
Brooklyn-based firm had not made a “final decision on moving forward.”
In a
copy of emails with community officials obtained by The Post, NineDot rep Sam
Brill defended the safety of such battery sites, including a NineDot battery
facility in the Bronx, that for years has “safely operated” 40 feet from a
public school.
“FDNY
wouldn’t let us build these if they weren’t safe,” Brill said.
The
standoff is an increasingly common sight in the five boroughs with locals
complaining potential blazes would be difficult to put out, as battery
storage explosions
in California have shown.
California’s
Public Utilities Commission recently tightened up safety
rules for these facilities following fires that
spewed toxic smoke.
The
batteries store energy, primarily from emerging solar and wind power, to help
New York meet targets under the much-criticized Climate Act of 2019 approved by
then-Gov Andrew Cuomo — now a mayoral candidate.
Under
the plan, New York must reduce greenhouse gas emissions 40% by 2030 and have
100% zero-emission electricity by 2040. Rules require New York to generate
9,000 megawatts of offshore wind energy by 2035, 6,000 megawatts of solar
energy by 2025 and build 3,000 megawatts of energy storage by 2030.
More
New Yorkers revolt
against ‘toxic’ new neighborhood battery storage facilities as backlash grows
to green energy law
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
It
would be so nice if something made sense for a change.
President
Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll.
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