Baltic
Dry Index. 1274 +05 Brent Crude 64.76
Spot
Gold 3238 U S 2 Year Yield 3.96 +0.12
US
Federal Debt. 36.714 trillion!!!
The
Great Depression, like most other periods of severe unemployment, was produced
by government mismanagement rather than by any inherent instability of the
private economy.
Milton
Friedman
A wild unpredictable
week in the global stock casinos and a US bond market heading for crisis. The
dollar falling to three year lows. Where was the Fed?
With a crisis brewing
in the US Treasury market, the only safe-haven left to ride out the coming storm
was gold and to a lesser extent silver.
Signs that US
consumers have brought forward purchases in an effort to beat the coming Trump
tariff price rises.
A warning on falling
US corporate earnings from Jamie Dimon.
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday that
he expects estimates for corporate earnings to fall amid the uncertainty
created by President Donald
Trump’s trade negotiations.
A very uncertain,
troubled summer lies ahead. Where will the first losses start showing up?
Dow
jumps 600 points Friday, capping one of the most volatile weeks on Wall Street
ever: Live updates
Updated
Fri, Apr 11 2025 9:44 PM EDT
Stocks
climbed Friday as Wall Street wrapped up a historically wild week.
The S&P 500 advanced 1.81% to
end at 5,363.36. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average rose 619.05 points, or 1.56%, and closed at
40,212.71. The Nasdaq
Composite climbed 2.06% to settle at 16,724.46.
Stocks
took a leg higher Friday afternoon on comments from the White House that
President Donald Trump is “optimistic” China will seek a deal with the U.S.
This
week has been one of the most volatile periods on record for Wall Street. The
major averages tumbled Thursday as traders went into risk-off mode, with trade
policy uncertainty weighing on sentiment. Stocks lost a chunk of the historic
gains seen on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on some of his
high “reciprocal” tariffs.
The
S&P 500 fell 3.46% on Thursday, while the 30-stock Dow tumbled 1,014.79
points, or 2.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq ended the day lower by 4.31%. On
Wednesday, the S&P 500 rallied 9.52% for its third-largest
gain in a single day since World War II, while the 30-stock Dow
skyrocketed more than 2,900 points.
The CBOE Volatility Index, known as
the Vix, earlier in the week spiked above 50 before dropping to about 37 as of
Friday afternoon.
The
Trump Administration has opted for a universal tariff rate of 10% — except for
China. Goods from Beijing will see a rate of 145%, a White House official
confirmed to CNBC on Thursday.
China
on Friday retaliated by raising its levies on U.S. products to 125% from 84%.
“Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make
economic sense and will become a joke in the history of world economy,”
the Chinese
finance ministry said in a statement, according to a CNBC translation.
Meanwhile,
the European Union said its trade representative was flying to Washington on
Sunday to “try and sign deals.”
Stock
market news for April 11, 2025
Europe
stocks close slightly lower as U.S.-China tariffs escalate; euro jumps to
3-year high against U.S. dollar
Updated
Sat, Apr 12 2025 9:41 PM EDT
European stock markets closed lower on Friday to
round off a choppy session and hugely volatile week, as concerns about a trade
war between the U.S. and China mounted further.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index closed 0.1%
lower, following its
best session since March 2022. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 closed 0.64% higher
while the FTSE 250 was
flat after data showed the British
economy grew significantly more than expected in February.
Germany’s Dax and France’s CAC 40 fell by 0.9% and
0.3%, respectively.
Building on strong Thursday gains, the euro added
another 1.3% against the U.S. dollar to trade around $1.134, its highest level
since February 2022.
In a sign of continued nervous sentiment, the
industrials, technology and energy sectors remained lower, while sectors
perceived to be safer — utilities and consumer durables — traded higher.
It has been a choppy week for European, and global,
markets as investors have been reacting to the frequent developments in global
trade policy that were set off by U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest
tariff plans.
Trump’s so-called reciprocal tariffs came into
effect earlier this week before being temporarily
dropped to a blanket 10% for 90 days to allow for trade negotiations
with most of the close to 90 countries and territories targeted. Tariffs on
imports from China were raised to a rate of 145%, however, a level which economists
say effectively cuts off trade between the world’s biggest economies.
On Friday, China responded by raising
its levies on U.S. goods to 125% from 84%.
European
markets: stocks, news, data and earnings
Jamie
Dimon says he expects S&P 500 earnings estimates to fall as companies pull
guidance
Published
Fri, Apr 11 2025 8:52 AM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 11 2025 10:45 AM EDT
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said Friday that
he expects estimates for corporate earnings to fall amid the uncertainty
created by President Donald
Trump’s trade negotiations.
On
a call with reporters to discuss first-quarter earnings,
JPMorgan CFO Jeremy Barnum said he didn’t see a reason to pull the bank’s
guidance, which is contingent on how the economy and interest rates play out.
His
boss, Dimon, then interjected, speaking about the broader corporate world: “I
would just add companies, some have taken away their guidance. I expect to see
more of that.”
“Analysts
have generally reduced their S&P estimate earnings by 5%,” in recent days,
Dimon said. “I think you’ll see that come down some more.”
Later
Friday, Dimon specified that he expected analysts to slash their S&P 500
earnings estimates for growth of 5% to become flat and then as much as negative
5% “probably the next month.”
Companies
will be reporting earnings over the next several weeks, giving managers an
opportunity to update investors on their outlook during a period of heightened
uncertainty. Markets have whipsawed since Trump announced a sweeping set of
tariffs on America’s trading partners last week, and have remained volatile as
U.S.-China tensions have escalated.
Already,
companies with exposure to the consumer including Walmart, Delta and Frontier
Airlines have reined in parts of their guidance to
investors.
The
uncertainty is causing clients to pull back from acquiring companies and making
investments as they adopt a wait-and-see attitude, Dimon and Barnum said.
Anecdotal
examples suggest that “people are being cautious,” Dimon said. “You know,
people are pulling back on doing deals, not just big ones, but middle-market
companies are being very cautious about investment.”
Barnum
added the environment has led businesses to drop long-term plans in favor of
“near-term optimization of supply chains.”
“This
level of policy uncertainty is one that makes it hard to plan for the long
term,” Barnum said.
Meanwhile,
consumers have held up in the first quarter, and more recently there are signs
they’ve been accelerating purchases on concerns that tariffs will make items
more expensive, the CFO said.
Jamie Dimon expects S&P 500 earnings estimates to fall amid uncertainty
Gold
soars past $3,200 as trade war deepens, dollar loses ground
Published
Fri, Apr 11 2025 2:24 AM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 11 2025 3:45 PM EDT
Gold
blazed past the $3,200 mark on Friday, as a faltering dollar and an escalating
U.S.-China trade war stirred recession fears, sending investors
flocking to the safety of the yellow metal.
Spot
gold was up nearly 2% at $3,235.89 an ounce, after hitting a record high of
$3,245.28 earlier in the session. Bullion is up over 6% this week.
U.S.
gold futures rose 2.1% to settle at $3244.6.
“Gold
is clearly seen as the favored safe-haven asset in a world upended by Trump’s
trade war. The U.S. dollar has depreciated, and U.S. Treasuries are selling off
hard, as faith in the U.S. as a reliable trading partner has diminished,” said
Nitesh Shah, commodities strategist at WisdomTree.
China
increased its tariffs on U.S. imports to 125% on Friday, raising the stakes in
a confrontation between the world’s two largest economies.
The
dollar fell against its peers, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for
overseas buyers.
A
combination of central bank buying, U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations,
geopolitical instabilities and a surge of investor flows into gold-backed ETFs
has also supported gold’s rally this year.
More
Gold
soars past $3,200 as trade war deepens, dollar loses ground
In other news,
nothing good. President Trump’s Liz Truss moment as US Treasury market stumbles
towards crisis.
Treasury yields soar as
bond rout intensifies
US government debt
on course for worst week since 2019 as traders report worsening liquidity
11 April 2025
Treasury yields soared to their highest level since
February on Friday, as traders complained liquidity was worsening amid a
deepening rout in the $29tn US government bond market.
The 10-year Treasury yield
climbed 0.19 percentage points to 4.58 per cent amid a deepening slump for an
asset traditionally considered the global financial system’s ultimate haven.
The yield has risen from less than 3.9 per cent
earlier in the week as Donald Trump’s erratic tariff policies shake
investors’ faith in US policymaking and the economy, sparking an exodus from
American assets.
While Trump backed down from his so-called
reciprocal tariffs on non-retaliating countries earlier this week — agreeing to
a 90-day hiatus for most major US trading partners — he placed even steeper
levies on Chinese imports.
“There is real pressure across the globe to sell
Treasuries and corporate bonds if you are a foreign holder,” said Peter Tchir,
head of US macro strategy at Academy Securities. “There is a real global
concern that they don’t know where Trump is going.”
Friday’s sell-off, which left Treasuries on course
for their worst week since 2019, according to returns on the Bloomberg US
Treasury index, was accompanied by a drop in the dollar.
A gauge of the currency’s strength against major
peers fell as much as 1.8 per cent on Friday. Sterling, the Japanese yen and
the Swiss franc all made significant gains.
“We are concerned because the movements you see
point to something else other than a normal sell-off,” said a European bank
executive in prime services, a division that facilitates leveraged trading for
firms including proprietary traders and hedge funds. “They point to a complete
loss of faith in the strongest bond market in the world.”
One of the primary beneficiaries of the sell-off in
US assets had been German Bunds, said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist
at Janney Montgomery Scott. The 10-year German yield was down 0.04 percentage
points to 2.54 per cent.
Traders said poor liquidity — the ease with which
investors can buy and sell Treasuries — was exacerbating market moves.
Analysts at JPMorgan said market depth, a measure of
the market’s ability to absorb large trades without significant shifts in
price, had significantly worsened this week, meaning even small trades were
moving yields significantly.
The head of Treasury trading at a major US bond
manager said liquidity was “not great today” and explained that “market depth
was running 80 per cent below normal averages” on Friday.
Treasury yields soar as bond rout intensifies
10-year
Treasury yield tops 4.5% after surge this week that’s worrying Wall Street and
the White House
Published
Fri, Apr 11 2025 5:02 AM EDT Updated Fri, Apr 11 2025 4:28 PM EDT
The
10-year Treasury yield climbed higher Friday, adding to its steep weekly rise,
as dizzying trade moves by President Donald Trump caused investors to dump U.S.
assets in favor of other global safe havens.
The
benchmark 10-year Treasury yield
advanced 9 basis points to 4.486%. It earlier jumped to its highest level since
Feb. 13. The 2-year
Treasury yield climbed
12 basis points on the day at 3.97%.
One
basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields move inversely to prices.
The
10-year yield this week has risen more than 50 basis points this week after
ending last week around 4%, marking one of the biggest spikes on record.
The
move marks a stark reversal in how investors view Treasurys. Traditionally,
investors have turned to U.S. debt as a safe haven during tumultuous times.
That doesn’t appear to be the case this week as China and Japan appeared to be
selling Treasurys amid the heightened trade tensions, traders speculated.
The
move higher may have complicated the White House’s approach to trade.
----Seema
Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, added that the
bond market “likely struck a nerve with the Trump administration.”
“They
have repeatedly emphasized their focus on bond yields and even celebrated last
week when Treasury bond yields dipped below 4%. Low financing costs appear to
be a key pillar of the Trump administration’s overall agenda, so the reversal
in market trends, surging Treasury yields, undoubtedly caused significant
concern in the White House,” Shah said.
Despite
the pause, however, rates resumed their upward climb to the high levels that
previously sparked concerned for the White House.
U.S. Treasury
yields: tariffs-led sell-off continues
Finally, in
escalating trade war news, 1930s 2.0? Who is likely to ride out Great
Depression 2.0 best? The American
consumer with massive credit card and other debts or the Chinese consumer with
a lower standard of living and savings instead of debt? The answer, neither.
Both lose out in a 1930s style depression.
China
strikes back with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, starting April 12
Published
Fri, Apr 11 202 54:12 AM EDT
China on Friday retaliated against U.S. President
Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs by raising its levies on U.S. goods to 125%
from 84%, according to a statement from the
Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council.
“Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher
tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the
history of world economy,” the statement said, according to a CNBC translation.
“With tariff rates at the current level, there is no
longer a market for U.S. goods imported into China,” the statement said, adding
that “if the U.S. government continues to increase tariffs on Chinese goods
exported to the U.S., China will ignore.”
Trump administration confirmed to CNBC on Thursday
that the U.S. tariff rate on Chinese imports now effectively totals 145%.
Hopes for a U.S.-China deal to resolve trade tensions have faded fast as Beijing has been hitting back in the last week with
tit-for-tat duties on American goods and wide-ranging restrictions on U.S.
businesses.
“It’s unfortunate that the Chinese actually don’t
want to come and negotiate, because they are the worst offenders in the
international trading system,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox
Business on Wednesday after China’s raised tariffs to 84%.
“They have the most imbalanced economy in the
history of the modern world, and I can tell you that this escalation is a loser
for them,” Bessent said.
Goldman Sachs on Thursday cut its China GDP forecast to 4%
given the drag from U.S. trade tensions and slower global growth.
While Chinese exports to the U.S. only account for
about 3 percentage points of China’s total GDP, there’s still a significant
impact on employment, Goldman Sachs analysts said. They estimate around 10
million to 20 million workers in China are involved with U.S.-bound export
businesses.
China strikes back with 125% tariffs on U.S. goods, starting April 12
Danish
shoppers boycott U.S. products as Greenland — and trade — tensions escalate
Published
Fri, Apr 11 2025 1:08 AM EDT
COPENHAGEN,
Denmark — Incensed by President Donald Trump’s posturing over Greenland and
sweeping trade tariffs, Danish shoppers are turning their backs on American
products in a show of national protest.
The
small European nation and longtime U.S. ally has lately found itself in the
president’s crosshairs amid his ambitions over Greenland, a semi-autonomous
Danish island. Meanwhile, new U.S. tariffs, recently reduced
to 10%,
now hinder EU exports to one of its key markets.
Trump
has repeatedly said the U.S. should take control of
Greenland,
which houses American military facilities, in the interests national security.
Danish officials have fervently rejected the notion, and now —much like in
Canada, which Trump would like to make the 51st U.S. state — consumers are
making a stand.
“It’s
the only way they [shoppers] can make a little protest on Trump,” Sanne, a
store worker at a Copenhagen branch of Danish grocery store chain Føtex, told
CNBC.
“F---
the U.S. basically at this point,” said shopper Sanja, an Australian now living
in Copenhagen.
Salling
Group, which owns Føtex and other supermarket chains Bilka and Netto, has made
the process of avoiding U.S. products easier by last month introducing an
asterisk star to the price tags of all European-owned brands across its more
than 1,700 stores in Denmark, Germany and Poland.
A
spokesperson for Salling Group said the move was not about “boycotting” U.S.
products, but came in response to a number of recent inquiries from shoppers
seeking “clearer information about European ownership.”
Still,
several shoppers told CNBC they welcomed the move.
“I
would prefer European products versus American, not only because of the
conflict, but also the standards. Now that the conflict is what it is, it’s
even more so,” said Sanja, whose mother was visiting from Australia and said
she, likewise, planned to shun U.S. products back home.
Another
shopper, Eva, agreed: “Yes, I would avoid American products. I think they need
a new president.”
The
boycotting of U.S. products has been mirrored elsewhere in Europe, with the
#BoycottUSA hashtag spreading on social media and Facebook groups emerging to
help consumers locate regionally made goods. It follows similar moves by
shoppers in Canada, where Americano coffees have been renamed Canadianos.
Big
U.S. brands have also faced a backlash, with one French poll pointing to
pushback against household names like Starbucks, McDonald’s and Coca Cola. Perhaps the most
prominent among them, Tesla has seen
sales drop significantly across the
region, with some dealerships in Germany, Italy and Sweden vandalized in a
rejection of CEO Elon Musk’s political moves.
More
Danish shoppers
boycott U.S. products as Greenland, trade tensions escalate
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
‘The
damage is done’: Why the risk of global recession remains despite Trump’s
tariff pause
10 April 2025
Economic experts have told The Independent the
risk of a global recession remains
despite the 90-day delay in Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff increases.
Trump made an abrupt U-turn on Wednesday when he
announced the three-month pause to all affected countries bar China, following
economic meltdown and widespread backlash.
But Pau S Pujolas, who wrote a study that was cited by the Trump
administration to justify the tariff hikes, says
the president’s “recklessness” means it may be too little, too late.
“Yes, the damage is done,” he said. “Global value
chains are suffering with all the recklessness, uncertainty is a good friend of
recession.
“This is not a serious way to manage an economy.
Firms and households need clear, predictable policies to take the right
decisions and make the economy blossom.”
Even if Trump decides not to reintroduce the high tariffs, the
global economic risk remains “until either Trump stops playing the tariff game,
or Congress removes the power vested on the president”, the associate professor
at McMaster University in Canada added.
Economist Justin Wolfers agreed there would be
lasting consequences despite the pause, as the president has shown he will say
something one day and change his mind the next.
“The damage there is very, very lasting and very
profound, because basically, he has shown he’s completely unreliable,” he
told The Independent.
The Trump administration had announced aggressive
tariff increases on nearly all of its trading partners, slapping levies of more than 30 per cent on some of the world’s weakest economies and placing a minimum
tariff of 10 per cent on almost everyone else.
But after creating market turmoil, which was
estimated to have wiped trillions off global stock markets by Tuesday, the
president abruptly announced he would pause the hikes for 90 days, with the
exception of the widespread 10 per cent levy, while also raising duties on
China by an additional 125 per cent.
Wolfers, a professor of economics at the University
of Michigan, said while pressing pause on the major levies had changed the risk
of a global recession, it had done so “by less than you think”.
Even with the delay on tariffs of more than 30 per
cent on some countries, with the previously increased tariffs on steel and
cars, the US still has some of the highest tariffs in the world, he said.
“The tariff rate has fallen from maybe, you know, 20
times that of our trading partners, to be 15 times that of our trading
partners. So it went from absurd to ridiculous,” he said.
Betting markets had recession odds at about 68 per
cent on Wednesday morning, and those odds had fallen by Wednesday afternoon
after the U-turn but were still at 53 per cent, Prof Wolfers said.
“It’s taken the edge off it, but it’s only taken the
edge off. So the risks remain incredibly elevated,” he said.
Leading independent Australian economist Chris
Richardson said the risk of a recession remains elevated because the constant
mind-changing was terrible for long-term business planning and public sector
decision-making.
“Chaos comes at a cost, and the tariff stuff is
playing out to the tune of ‘Hokey Pokey’. Tariffs go on, tariffs go off, then
get shaken all about,” he said.
The constant change in America’s trade policy has
also made the people who lend money to financial markets nervous, he said, as
evidenced by the fall in the US bond market.
“What’s happening with the Trump stuff is the world
is seeing risks going up, and people choosing to be safer: less risk, less
return,” he added.
More
‘The damage is done’: Why the risk of global recession remains despite
Trump’s tariff pause
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Solar Energy’s Unstoppable Ascendancy: The Role of Battery Storage
in Growth
April 9, 2025
The global energy landscape is
undergoing a seismic shift as solar power has reached a scale and momentum that
few anticipated. As costs continue to plummet and deployment accelerates, solar
is transforming power markets, cutting reliance on fossil fuels,
and reshaping geopolitics. And with batteries now scaling at an unprecedented
rate, the world is on the cusp of an energy revolution where solar and storage together form an unstoppable force.
The rise of solar power is no longer a distant
future—it is happening now, at an unprecedented pace and scale. Global solar
power capacity reached one terawatt (TW) in 2022 after decades of growth but
reached two TW only two years later, in 2024. No other electricity source has
expanded so rapidly in history. Doubling every three years, solar has become
the dominant source of new power, outpacing fossil fuels and securing its place
as the engine of the energy transition.
According to Ember’s Global Electricity Review, solar added a record 474 terawatt-hours (TWh) of
electricity worldwide in 2024, more than three times as much as coal (+149 TWh)
and almost five times as much as gas (+103 TWh). Solar has now been the largest
source of new electricity globally for three years in a row and has been the
fastest growing for twenty years straight. China added twice as much solar
electricity as coal in 2024, and in the United States, solar outpaced gas
growth.
Cheap solar power is upending energy
economics. Without solar, global fossil generation would be twelve percent
higher than it is today. In China, the world’s largest coal consumer, solar alone prevented an estimated 783 TWh of
additional coal-fired power last year—without it, the country’s coal generation
growth over the past five years would have been fifty percent larger. In the
European Union, where the energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine spurred
an accelerated rollout of renewables, solar has rapidly replaced fossil fuels.
The New Solar Superpowers
China – the undisputed solar superpower
– accounts for thirty-nine percent of global solar generation. However, the
growth of solar is not confined to a few pioneering nations; it is a worldwide
phenomenon. Forty-two countries now generate at least a tenth of their
electricity from solar. Over the past five years, ninety-nine countries have
doubled their solar generation, with emerging economies and industrial
powerhouses alike integrating solar into their grids.
New solar superpowers are emerging. In
2022, India overtook Japan to become the third-largest solar generator in the
world. In 2024, Brazil overtook Germany to become the fifth-largest solar
generator. Alongside China, this means that BRICS members now represent three
of the world’s top five solar-generating countries.
Solar is now so cheap that large markets
can emerge in the space of a single year – as evidenced in Pakistan in
2024. The low-cost, fast-to-build nature of solar power can transform
electricity systems at an unprecedented rate, bringing into sharp relief the
need for updated system planning and regulatory frameworks. There are signs in
other regions that more rapid change could be around the corner: countries in
Africa and the Middle East saw record solar imports in 2024, driven by the
technology’s falling costs and ease of deployment.
At the forefront, countries such as
Chile and Hungary demonstrate that high shares of solar are feasible, with
solar contributing over twenty percent of electricity in both nations.
More
Solar Energy’s Unstoppable Ascendancy: The Role of Battery Storage in
Growth
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Approx. 12 minutes. More Ben. Albertin at Easter.
Alfons
Albertin (1736-1790) - Sonata à 4 Organi con Stromenti (1787)
Alfons Albertin
(1736-1790) - Sonata à 4 Organi con Stromenti (1787) - YouTube
Alphons
Albertin
Alphons Albertin -
Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This
weekend, a trip on England’s heritage railway, The Bluebell Line. Approx. 6
minutes. An Easter outing perhaps.
Beachy
Head- Welcoming Britain's Newest Steam Locomotive
Beachy Head-
Welcoming Britain's Newest Steam Locomotive
This
weekend’s final interesting diversion. Approx. 26 minutes.
Why
Did Bangkok 33-Story Building COLLAPSE? Chinese Crime?
Why Did Bangkok
33-Story Building COLLAPSE? Chinese Crime? - YouTube
From the Great Depression, to the stagflation of the seventies,
to the current economic crisis caused by the housing bubble, every economic
downturn suffered by this country over the past century can be traced to
Federal Reserve policy. The Fed has followed a consistent policy of flooding
the economy with easy money, leading to a misallocation of resources and an
artificial 'boom' followed by a recession or depression when the Fed-created
bubble bursts.
Ron Paul
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