Baltic Dry Index. 1598 -04 Brent Crude 74.94
Spot Gold 3145 US 2 Year Yield 3.89 unch.
US Federal Debt. 36.668 trillion!!
Of all the mysteries of the stock exchange there is none so impenetrable as why there should be a buyer for everyone who seeks to sell.
John Kenneth Galbraith
It is April Fools Day, will the stock casinos today make fools of the buyers or the sellers?
Today’s stock casinos action might not matter much anyway, depending on what happens on Trump’s “Liberation Day” tomorrow.
The days after tomorrow don’t look to good either.
Brussels is considering the possibility of using a full arsenal of measures, including restricting the access of American companies to the European market and public tenders. This was reported by a source of El País in the EU.
Then there is Friday’s US March jobs report, where for the first time, the DOGE layoffs and cutbacks might start to show up in the figures although that’s more likely to happen in the April jobs report.
All in all, a good time to join Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway in sitting out events in cash.
Look away from that soaring gold price and rising crude oil price now.
Asia-Pacific markets rise after key Wall Street
indexes gain overnight
Updated Tue, Apr 1 2025 12:14 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets climbed Tuesday,
after two key Wall Street benchmarks rose as investors awaited clarity on U.S.
President Donald Trump’s tariff rollout.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.91%,
after the Reserve Bank of Australia held
interest rates at 4.1%, in line with expectations, as the country heads
to the polls on May 3.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 pared earlier
gains to trade flat, while the broader Topix index was up 0.12% in choppy
trade.
Japanese markets fell into correction
territory in the previous session, with the Nikkei
225 falling 4.05% to end the day at a six-month low.
The Kospi index advanced 1.66%
while the small-cap Kosdaq surged 2.88%.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.29% while Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased
1.06%.
China’s Caixin PMI for March came in
at 51.2,
compared to the 51.1 reading penciled by economists in Reuters’ poll,
and slightly higher than the 50.8 reading in the previous month.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 rose 0.1% in choppy
trade at the open while the broader BSE Sensex dropped 0.42%.
U.S. futures
slipped as investors awaited clarity on Trump’s upcoming tariff
plans.
Overnight, two
of the three key benchmark indexes on Wall Street ended the session in
positive territory.
The S&P 500 clawed back
earlier losses on to end the session higher. The broad market index added 0.55%
to close at 5,611.85. At one point, it fell as much as 1.65% and traded 10%
below its record.
The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.14%
and closed at 17,299.29. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average advanced 417.86 points, or 1%, to settle at
42,001.76.
Asia
markets live: Stocks rise
U.S. stock futures slip as investors await clarity
on Trump’s upcoming tariffs: Live updates
Updated Tue, Apr 1 2025 12:23 AM EDT
U.S. stock futures slipped on Tuesday
morning as the market awaited clarity from President Donald Trump regarding his
tariff policy rollout.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones
Industrial Average fell 112 points, or 0.27%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures dipped
0.36% and 0.41%, respectively.
On Monday, the S&P 500 and the
blue-chip Dow posted
gains for the session. The broad market index added 0.55% on Monday, while the
30-stock Dow jumped 1%. The Nasdaq
Composite slid 0.14% for the session.
Stocks were shaken in the first quarter of
2025 by mounting uncertainty around the new Trump administration’s economic
tariffs. As recently as Sunday, Trump said that his “reciprocal
tariffs” plan would “start with all countries.” Investors had been hoping
for a narrow approach toward administering the levies.
Traders will likely receive further
insight into the situation on Wednesday, April 2 — when many of Trump’s duties
are slated to go into effect.
Stocks ended the first quarter with
losses, as the S&P 500 posted a 4.6% decline and the Nasdaq dropped more
than 10% in the period — the worst quarterly decline for both indexes since
2022. However, the future may be brighter heading into the second quarter,
especially given the S&P 500′s rebound during Monday’s session, according
to Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment
Institute.
“We saw the retest today; we might get a
little bit of a bounce here. We want to buy while we’ve got a pullback,” he
said Monday on CNBC’s “Closing
Bell: Overtime.” Consider that the broad market index at one point traded
10% below its record high on Monday, but ultimately made a comeback from the
drop.
“We’re expecting some broadening out in
both earnings and just stock performance this year,” Wren said. “We don’t think
it’s going to be another year where you’ve got a handful of stocks leading the
charge.”
On Tuesday, traders will watch out for
March’s manufacturing data alongside February’s job openings and construction
spending reports.
Stock market today: Live updates
U.S. Stocks Post Worst Quarter Since 2022 on
Threat of Trade War
Tariff uncertainty and a flagging tech
trade drag the S&P 500 and Nasdaq lower to start 2025
Updated March 31, 2025
4:37 pm ET
Worries about tariffs and the economy sent
the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to their worst quarters since 2022, a
setback that is pushing some investors overseas.
The Trump administration’s whipsaw rollout
of a tariff fight with America’s biggest trading partners
has analysts trimming forecasts for economic growth and lifting estimates for
inflation. The tech trade that carried indexes to new highs is fizzling.
Investors big and small have been shifting bets to Europe—where
new spending plans could jolt a lethargic economy—and beyond.
Monday’s action highlighted the volatility
pummeling markets in recent weeks. U.S. stocks opened sharply lower following a
global selloff overnight, before an afternoon rally carried the broad index to
its largest intraday recovery in more than two years.
----The S&P 500 is struggling to claw
its way out of a correction after falling 10% from its
February record. The tumultuous quarter has left the U.S. stock benchmark down
4.6%, far behind the gains of indexes overseas. The dollar has weakened, leaving investors wondering if the
pullback from investing in U.S. assets heralds the start of a long-term regime.
It is a far cry from the end of 2024, when
the S&P 500 capped a second consecutive year of more than 20% gains.
Cooling inflation had allowed the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates three
times in a row. Election Day victories by President Trump and
congressional Republicans seemed to presage tax cuts, deregulation and boom
times ahead.
Few money managers are ready to proclaim
an age of European dominance. But some are considering the possibility that
years of middling results from the continent’s stock markets could give way to
sustained strong performance.
While European stocks have long been
cheaper than U.S. shares relative to companies’ earnings, the continent’s
sluggish economy and less tech-oriented market had turned off many
investors.
Now, with the U.S. warning Europe not to
take its military protection for granted, Germany and other countries have
announced major increases in defense spending that some economists think could
jump-start the region’s economy.
Investors are rushing to get in on the
action. The Stoxx Europe 600 index has outpaced the S&P 500 by 9.8
percentage points so far this year, its largest quarterly lead since the start
of 2015, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Among defense stocks in Europe, Rheinmetall in
Germany has more than doubled while Thales in
France has climbed 77%.
More
U.S.
Stocks Post Worst Quarter Since 2022 on Threat of Trade War - WSJ
Next, where’s the gold? More specifically,
where’s Germany’s gold? Is the trade war about to turn nasty?
German Conservatives Raise Alarm Over $113 Billion
in Gold Held in New York
31 March 2025
For decades, Germany’s gold reserves
stored in the United States have been considered a pillar of postwar financial
stability. But with over €100 billion in bullions still sitting in the vaults
of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, that confidence is starting to crack.
As reported by Digi24, conservative
lawmakers in Berlin have renewed calls for greater scrutiny—and even
repatriation—of the 1,236 metric tons of gold Germany holds in the U.S., as
political instability and executive overreach under President Donald Trump stir
fears about future access to the reserves.
Shadow of Trump fuels anxiety
Germany maintains the second-largest gold
reserve in the world, with 37% of it still abroad in New York. That
arrangement, once considered prudent for international liquidity and monetary
security, is now seen as potentially risky in a shifting political climate.
“Of course, the question arises again
now,” said CDU lawmaker Marco Wanderwitz, who first requested an inspection of
the vaults back in 2012. Fellow CDU member Markus Ferber echoed that concern,
urging Bundesbank officials to personally inspect and document the bullion.
Recent speculation about Trump’s
willingness to override traditional legal boundaries—combined with remarks from
his key adviser Elon Musk demanding audits of U.S. gold reserves—have only
added fuel to the fire
Bundesbank reassures, but memories linger
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel
attempted to calm concerns in February, telling reporters, “We have a
trustworthy partner in the New York Fed… It doesn’t keep me up at night.” Yet
the issue is far from new. A similar wave of concern in 2013, sparked by
populist pressure, led Germany to repatriate gold held in Paris.
Currently, more than half of Germany’s
gold is stored domestically in Frankfurt, with smaller portions kept in London
and New York. But as fears over Trump-era unpredictability grow, so too does
public and political pressure for the Bundesbank to consider bringing the rest
home.
German
Conservatives Raise Alarm Over $113 Billion in Gold Held in New York
EU Commission may close European market for US
goods - El País
31 March 2025
The EU is preparing a response to the US
duties. Brussels is considering a complete market closure for American goods,
El País reports.
The European Union is preparing to
retaliate against the introduction of new duties by the Donald Trump
administration, which will come into force on April 2.
Brussels is considering the possibility of
using a full arsenal of measures, including restricting the access of American
companies to the European market and public tenders. This was reported by a
source of El País in the EU.
The new US customs tariffs, which Trump
calls "reciprocal," could seriously affect trade relations between
the two sides of the Atlantic.
According to the US administration, the
annual volume of imports and exports between the US and the EU reaches 900
billion euros, with a trade balance of 235.5 billion euros in favor of Europe.
In response, the European Commission is
considering tough measures, including imposing tariffs on American goods,
restricting access to European financial markets, and even banning American
companies from participating in EU-funded projects.
At the same time, European capitals,
including France, Italy, and Ireland, are calling for a cautious approach to
avoid a full-blown trade war.
Despite the escalating situation, Brussels
continues to try to negotiate with Washington. The EU is even offering some
concessions, including lower duties on industrial goods and increased purchases
of American liquefied natural gas.
However, if the US does not abandon the
new customs restrictions, Europe is ready to act without red lines.
Europe's reaction
During his recent visit to the United
States, French President Emmanuel Macron advised his American counterpart,
Donald Trump, not to start a trade war with Europe. Instead, he urged him to
focus on China.
The French President also made it clear to
Trump that Europe would not be able to increase defense spending, as demanded
by the United States, in the event of a trade war.
In addition, the EU promised to respond to
Trump in the event of a trade war. For several months, the EU has been working
on a set of potential retaliatory measures in case Trump imposes tariffs,
although the details of the list were closely guarded. Afterward, an EU
spokesperson said the bloc would react strongly if Trump imposed tariffs.
Kaja Kallas, the EU's foreign policy
chief, says that if the United States and Europe start a trade war, it will be
China that will be laughing.
EU
Commission may close European market for US goods - El País
In other news.
South Korea, China, Japan agree to promote
regional trade as Trump tariffs loom
Published Sun, Mar 30 2025 3:23 AM EDT
South Korea, China and Japan held their
first economic dialogue in five years on Sunday, seeking to facilitate regional
trade as the three Asian export powers brace from U.S. President Donald Trump’s
tariffs.
The countries’ three trade ministers
agreed to “closely cooperate for a comprehensive and high-level” talks on a
South Korea-Japan-China free trade agreement deal to promote “regional and
global trade”, according to a statement released after the meeting.
“It is necessary to strengthen the
implementation of RCEP, in which all three countries have participated, and to
create a framework for expanding trade cooperation among the three countries
through Korea-China-Japan FTA negotiations,” said South Korean Trade Minister
Ahn Duk-geun, referring to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
The ministers met ahead of Trump’s
announcement on Wednesday of more tariffs in what he calls “liberation day”, as
he upends Washington’s trading partnerships.
Seoul, Beijing and Tokyo are major U.S.
major trading partners, although they have been at loggerheads among themselves
over issues including territorial disputes and Japan’s release of wastewater
from the wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant.
They have not made substantial progress on
a trilateral free-trade deal since starting talks in 2012.
RCEP, which went into force in 2022, is a
trade framework among 15 Asia-Pacific countries aimed at lowering trade
barriers.
Trump announced 25% import tariffs on cars
and auto parts last week, a move that may hurt companies, especially Asian
automakers, which are among the largest vehicle exporters to the U.S.
After Mexico, South Korea is the world’s
largest exporter of vehicles to the United States, followed by Japan, according
to data from S&P.
The ministers agreed to hold their next
ministerial meeting in Japan.
South Korea,
China, Japan to promote regional trade as tariffs loom
Key Takeaways From NYT's Secret History
Detailing US 'Shocking' Involvement In Ukraine War
Sunday, Mar 30, 2025 - 09:55 PM
It is years too late and
alternative and independent media had already done so much work on exposing the
reality, including 600+ page books which have
been published, but the New York Times on Sunday is out with a
lengthy report on The Partnership:
The Secret History of America’s Role in the Ukraine War.
Up until very recently, mainstream media
gatekeepers wouldn't so much as admit that a proxy war has
been unfolding from the very start of the conflict in Ukraine. This even after
the so-called paper of record had earlier in Feb. 2024 acknowledged that the
CIA had built 12 "secret spy
bases" in Ukraine to wage a shadow war against Russia going back
to 2014.
Again, it comes much too belatedly, but
now with Ukrainian forces clearly losing the fight, the Times admits
that the prior Biden administration was far more involved in being
embedded on a military and intelligence level with Ukraine than was
previously made public by official sources.
The report is a deep dive into the
"extraordinary partnership of intelligence, strategy, planning and
technology" that became Zelensky's "secret
weapon" in countering Russia. It begins by describing that within
two months of Putin sending his army across the border, Ukrainian generals in
civilians clothes were being secretly whisked away for high-level war planning
sessions at US bases in Germany.
"The passengers were top Ukrainian
generals," NY Times describes of men taken
by a convoy of unmarked cars from the Ukrainian capital to Western Europe.
"Their destination was Clay Kaserne, the headquarters of U.S. Army Europe
and Africa in Wiesbaden, Germany. Their mission was to help forge what would
become one of the most closely guarded secrets of the war in Ukraine."
The report makes clear that US commanders
were much more inter-woven into Ukrainian operations than known, to the point
of 'shocking' some NATO allies. In essence many counter-Russia
operations happening on Ukraine's battlefields were simply run from the base in
Germany.
"But a New York Times investigation
reveals that America was woven into the war far more intimately and broadly
than previously understood," the report continues. "At critical
moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military
operations that, by U.S. counts, have killed or wounded more than
700,000 Russian soldiers. (Ukraine has put its casualty toll at 435,000.) Side
by side in Wiesbaden’s mission command center, American and Ukrainian officers
planned Kyiv’s counteroffensives. A vast American
intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and
funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field."
Notably, this is essentially US officials
and the NY Times also admitting that the Kremlin has all along been
right when it insisted this was never really simply about Moscow
vs. Kiev - but that NATO countries have militarized Ukraine and weaponized it
against Russia. President Putin and Kremlin officials have been fiercely
complaining about US intervention all along, but this was dismissed in the West
as merely 'propaganda'.
Below are some key excerpts from the
very lengthy NY Times
report,
with subheadings and emphasis by ZeroHedge...
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
consumer spending rises in February, but falls short of expectations
31
March 2025
Consumer
spending in the United States rose in February but fell short of economists’
expectations, as households cut back on dining and travel while grappling with
rising costs and economic uncertainty.
Figures
released by the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis showed
that consumer spending climbed by 0.4 per cent last month. This followed a
downwardly revised 0.3 per cent decline in January and was slightly below
economists’ expectations of a 0.5 per cent rebound.
The
data suggests that American households remain cautious about non-essential
purchases. Spending on restaurants, hotels and motels dropped sharply by 15 per
cent, while expenditure at non-profit institutions also slumped by 15.8 per
cent — likely impacted by federal funding cuts as President Trump
moves to shrink government spending.
However,
the overall picture was supported by stronger sales of durable goods, including
motor vehicles, furniture, and household equipment. Non-durable goods such as
food and beverages also saw a modest rise, while services spending edged up 0.2
per cent.
The
weaker-than-expected rebound in spending comes amid mounting pressure on US
households from rising prices and concerns over the economic outlook.
Economists are increasingly warning that a series of tariffs imposed by
President Trump could push inflation higher, particularly on imported goods.
Federal
Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said last week that inflation had begun to rise,
“partly in response to tariffs,” and warned that further progress towards the
central bank’s 2 per cent inflation target could be delayed.
In
the 12 months to February, core inflation — which excludes food and energy —
rose to 2.8 per cent, up from 2.7 per cent in January.
The
Fed, which tracks the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index as
its preferred inflation measure, left interest rates unchanged last week,
maintaining its benchmark range between 4.25 and 4.50 per cent. Financial
markets currently expect the Fed to resume rate cuts in June, but analysts are
growing more sceptical.
Stephen
Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said the
spending figures support the view that the Fed may hold off on rate cuts this
year. “Admittedly, officials are likely to be concerned by the evidence of
slower consumer spending growth, but we suspect that is partly due to the
unseasonably severe winter weather,” he said.
With
inflation still running hot and consumer sentiment fragile, policymakers will
be watching closely for signs that demand is cooling — or whether further
interest rate adjustments may be needed to keep inflation in check while
supporting household spending.
US consumer spending rises in February, but falls short of expectations
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Factbox-Airlines
that have updated their lithium battery policies
31
March 2025
SEOUL
(Reuters) -Several airlines have updated their guidance on carrying lithium
batteries onboard. The batteries are in devices such as cellphones and
e-cigarettes, and can malfunction to produce smoke, fire or extreme heat.
In
2024, three incidents of overheating lithium batteries on planes were recorded
globally every two weeks by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration, compared
to just under one a week in 2018.
Aviation
has long recognised the batteries as a safety concern, and rules are
periodically tightened in response to accidents.
AIRLINES
IN SOUTH KOREA
In
January, an Air Busan plane was consumed by flames while preparing to depart
South Korea. Investigators have not issued a final report into the cause of the
fire, but the transport ministry said on March 14 that a power bank was the
possible cause.
Air
Busan was the first to change its policies to disallow power banks in overhead
cabin bins, saying passengers should keep them on their person, to more easily
spot any problems.
From
March 1, South Korea tightened rules for all South Korean airlines, including
keeping power banks and e-cigarettes with passengers and not in luggage bins,
and not charging devices onboard.
AIRLINES
IN HONG KONG
Hong
Kong's aviation regulator said local airlines from April 7 must not allow
passengers to use or charge power banks during flights, and they must not be
stored in overhead lockers.
On
March 20, a Hong Kong Airlines flight departing China was forced to divert due
to a "suspected hand carry baggage fire" in an overhead compartment.
Hong
Kong's Civil Aviation Department said on March 24 it was "highly concerned
about recent safety incidents suspected to have been caused by passengers
carrying and using lithium battery power banks (power banks) on aircraft".
Hong
Kong-based carrier Cathay Pacific said it would implement the new regulations,
adding that it recognised the importance of continuous improvement in aviation
safety. The airline had earlier told Reuters it would not change its guidelines
out of concern it would be hard to enforce and "may lead to negative
unintended consequences".
AIRASIA
AirAsia,
a budget airline owned by Malaysia's Capital A, said it will ban the use and
charging of power banks on flights from April 1. Power banks must also be
stored in the seat pocket or under the seat, and not in overhead compartments.
"These
measures align with global aviation safety standards to reduce the risk of
battery-related incidents during flights," the airline said.
AIR
ASTANA
Kazakhstan's
Air Astana from March 13 prohibited charging or using power banks during
flights and said lithium batteries, external batteries and e-cigarettes must be
kept in hand luggage and placed on the luggage racks.
BATIK
AIR
From
March 14 passengers on Indonesia's Batik Air, part of the Lion Air Group, may
not use power banks in flight. Two power banks may be carried on their person
and not in overhead cabins.
"Passengers
are also advised to exercise caution when carrying auto-magnet charge power
banks, as these may pose additional risks," the airline
said.
CHINA
China's
aviation regulator has said from at least 2014 that passengers should not
charge devices using power banks during flight.
More
Factbox-Airlines
that have updated their lithium battery policies
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
economic repercussions of a stock market crash depend less on the severity of
the crash itself than on the response of economic policymakers, particularly
central bankers.
Ben
Bernanke
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