Baltic Dry Index. 1300 +39 Brent Crude 66.20
Spot Gold 3330 US 2 Year Yield 3.81 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 36.763 trillion!!!
Government machinery has been described as a marvelous labor saving device which enables ten men to do the work of one.
John Maynard Keynes
In the global stock casinos, more relief rally from the Trump retreat on China and firing Fed Chairman Powell. But how long will the relief rally last, given an increasingly unstable and unpredictable President Trump?
I suspect, the stock casinos are merely in the still eye of the Great Trump Tariff Trade War Hurricane.
Bad things in the global economy are now starting to pile up fast.
European markets set for somber open as relief
rally stalls
Updated Thu, Apr 24 2025 12:21 AM EDT
European stocks are heading for a flat to
mixed open Thursday as a relief rally stalls.
The U.K.’s FTSE 100 index is expected
to open 6 points higher at 8,404, Germany’s DAX flat at 21,933,
France’s CAC 2
points lower at 7,475 and Italy’s FTSE MIB 53 points lower at
35,942, according to data from IG.
Earnings are set to come from Unilever, Banco Sabadell, Sanofi, Eni, BNP Paribas and Dassault Systemes. Data releases
will include French consumer confidence and EU new car registrations.
Regional markets had followed their global
counterparts higher Wednesday as concerns about a trade war between the U.S.
and China receded.
U.S. stocks also surged on Wednesday after
President Donald Trump said he didn’t plan to remove Federal Reserve Chairman
Jerome Powell from his post as central bank leader. Market sentiment had dipped
in recent days amid concerns that the central bank’s independence could have
been compromised.
S&P 500 futures rose on
Wednesday night after the major U.S. averages posted a second straight winning
day, while
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed overnight as a possible
thaw in U.S.-China trade war fueled investor optimism.
‘Bear market rallies are the most
violent,’ Wolfe Research strategists say
“Bear market rallies are the most
violent,” according to Wolfe Research macro strategists Rob Ginsberg and Read
Harvey in a note published late Tuesday after Day 1 of the latest market
comeback.
Tuesday’s 2.5% gain in the S&P 500
showed internal markers such as breadth and volume that “were extremely strong,
but that’s the point of the bear market rally, they make you a believer,” the
pair wrote.
Because their analysis of longer-term,
weekly and monthly trends “continues to suggest that we are in a bear market,”
Ginsberg and Harvey are looking for “a cluster” of signals to shift direction
before declaring the bear dead. Those include a turn in the three-month rate of
change and for the S&P 500 to climb above short-term resistance levels
between 5500 and 5700.
The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at
5,375.86.
European
markets live updates: stocks, news, data and earnings
S&P 500 futures rise after major averages post
back-to-back gains: Live updates
Updated Thu, Apr 24 2025 8:15 PM EDT
S&P 500 futures rose on
Wednesday night after the major averages posted a second straight winning day.
Futures linked to the broad market index
were up 0.3%, while Nasdaq
100 futures traded 0.3% higher. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures
lost 15 points.
In extended trading, International Business Machines slumped
more than 6%. The company posted better-than-anticipated earnings
and revenue for the first quarter, but maintained its full-year
guidance. Southwest Airlines lost
more than 2% after the company said it plans
to cut its schedule in the second half of this year and pulled its
guidance for earnings before interest and taxes in 2025 and 2026.
In regular trading, the S&P 500 gained almost
1.7%, while the Nasdaq
Composite jumped 2.5%. The 30-stock Dow added more than 400
points. While the three indexes posted a second consecutive winning session,
they ended the day well off their highs: At one point on Wednesday, the Dow was
up more than 1,100 points.
Stocks seemed to get a lift on hopes that
trade tensions between the U.S. and China would ease. Earlier this week, Trump
said he is willing to take a less confrontational approach toward trade talks
with Beijing. Further, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Wednesday that the
U.S. has the “opportunity
for a big deal” on trade. Chinese imports are subject to a U.S. tariff
of 145%.
“While it’s encouraging to hear a more
dovish tone on tariffs from the administration, stocks remain range-bound for
the time being, as the ultimate goal for markets is either a reversal of the
tariffs or significant trade deals,” said Gaurav Mallik, chief investment
officer of Massachusetts-based Pallas Capital Advisors. “It can take a few
months for corrections to end, and we still believe that this is a correction
given the speed of the declines.”
In addition, Trump said late Tuesday that
he has “no
intention” of firing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, whose term as
Fed chair will end in May 2026. This seemed to boost sentiment in the market,
particularly as the relationship between Trump and Powell has been growing more
tense in recent days. Earlier this week, the president called Powell a “major
loser.”
All three of the major averages are on
pace for weekly gains, with the Nasdaq up 2.6% and the S&P 500 up nearly
1.8%. The Dow is on pace for a 1.2% advance in the period.
On Thursday, investors will look for
quarterly earnings reports from Alphabet, Intel and PepsiCo. On the economic
data front, durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims are due in the
morning.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Bridgewater three co-CIOs warn 'exceptional risks'
to US assets
April 24, 2025
HONG KONG (Reuters) -Bridgewater
Associates' three Co-Chief Investment Officers said they see "exceptional
risks" to U.S. assets under the Trump administration's rapid shift to
modern mercantilism that puts "America First".
The hedge fund giant made the comments in
a newsletter late on Wednesday, raising their growing concerns about a possible
U.S. recession and threats to U.S. assets which are dependent on foreign flows.
"We expect a policy-induced slowdown,
with rising probability of a recession," the Co-CIOs, Bob Prince, Greg
Jensen and Karen Karniol-Tambour said in the newsletter.
Assets like U.S. equities that benefited
from massive inflows due to strong economic growth and a proactive Federal
Reserve in old days are facing imminent risks, they said.
U.S. stocks tumbled, bonds were sold off
and the dollar hit a three-year low after U.S. President Donald Trump's started
a trade war this month that upended the global trade order.
Investors are also fearful of a deep hit
to asset prices if Trump attempts to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
In November, Bridgewater Co-CIO
Karniol-Tambour said U.S. stocks are a "good thing" to hold following
Trump's victory in the presidential election. The latest comments mark a stark
shift from that stance.
Bridgewater
three co-CIOs warn 'exceptional risks' to US assets
CNBC Daily Open: Trump starts trade war but also
blinks first
Published Wed, Apr 23 2025 9:23 PM EDT
U.S. President Donald Trump called the
first shots in his trade crusade, but he also blinked first in his tariff war.
Trump late Tuesday said that the current
145% tariff on Chinese imports is “very high, and it won’t be that high. … No,
it won’t be anywhere near that high. It’ll come down substantially. But it
won’t be zero.” The president’s softer tone towards China, despite no formal
talks, was in stark contrast to his more combative rhetoric earlier in April.
China, on its part, has welcomed the
talks, but has not ceded any ground. “China’s attitude towards the tariff war
launched by the U.S. is quite clear: We don’t want to fight, but we are not
afraid of it. If we fight, we will fight to the end; if we talk, the door is
wide open,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said
Wednesday.
Markets then rallied following the
softening stance, but with the swings in rhetoric from the White House, we
might be in for another whiplash if Trump changes his mind.
CNBC
Daily Open: Trump starts trade war but also blinks first
Trump’s U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire
Economic Warnings
April 23, 2025 at 1:55 AM GMT+1 Updated
on April 23, 2025 at 11:02 PM GMT+1
Confronted with fresh warnings from
financial markets, business leaders and top advisers, President Donald
Trump this week eased off on two of his frequent punching
bags: Jerome Powell and China.
More, subscription required.
Trump
U-Turns on Powell, China Follow Dire Economic Warnings - Bloomberg
In other news, the good and the bad of
President Trump’s erratic tariff wars.
US will aim for UK to cut its automotive tariff
from 10% to 2.5%, WSJ reports
23 April 2025
(Reuters) -The United States will aim for
Britain to reduce its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, The Wall Street
Journal reported on Tuesday, citing people with knowledge of a draft document
circulated by the administration of President Donald Trump.
British finance minister Rachel Reeves is
due to meet Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week to push Britain's case
for a trade agreement with Washington that could lower or eliminate the tariffs
imposed by Trump on UK exports.
Washington is preparing its terms for
trade negotiations, aiming for London to reduce levies and other non-tariff
barriers on a variety of goods, the report said, adding the Trump
administration also aims to push for more relaxed rules on U.S. agricultural
imports, including beef.
Trump imposed a 10% tariff on most imports
from Britain and a 25% tariff on key sectors such as cars and steel.
It remains unclear if the U.S. will
consider reducing its 10% tariff on Britain if London agrees to all of its
trade demands, according to the Journal.
The White House, U.S. Trade Representative
and Downing Street did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for
comment.
US will aim for UK to cut its automotive tariff from 10% to 2.5%, WSJ reports
Approx. 14 minutes.
U.S.-China Trade War EXPLODES! Ports Jammed,
Amazon Cancels Orders & Car Prices Skyrocket!
U.S.-China Trade War EXPLODES! Ports Jammed, Amazon Cancels Orders & Car Prices Skyrocket! - YouTube
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Eurozone
economy stalls in April as tariffs rattle services activity
23
April 2025
Economic
momentum in the eurozone stalled in April, as recent trade tensions battered
the services sector, undermining fragile optimism for the bloc’s recovery path.
The
eurozone’s Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), a closely watched gauge
of private sector health, dipped to 50.1 in April from 50.9 in March, falling
short of consensus expectations of 50.3.
The
figure, barely above the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction,
suggests stagnation across the bloc’s economy as the second quarter began.
April’s
performance marked a divergence between a mildly resurgent manufacturing sector
and a services sector that slid into contraction. The flash Services PMI fell
from 51 to 49.7, the first decline in five months, while the Manufacturing PMI
nudged higher to 48.7, surpassing forecasts of a fall to 47.5.
Surveys
witnessed a sharp deterioration in business confidence across the euro area,
with sentiment sinking to its lowest level since November 2022 and remaining
well below the series average.
The
decline was broad-based, affecting both manufacturing and services, and was
evident across most major eurozone economies, reflecting widespread caution
amid rising geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty.
Tariff
worries hit German services, yet manufacturing remains resilient
In
Germany, the eurozone’s industrial heartland, business activity retreated after
three months of expansion. The Germany’s Composite PMI dropped from March’s
51.3 to 49.7 in April.
Services
suffered a steeper fall, with the sector’s PMI plunging to 48.8, down from
50.9, well below expectations of 50.3.
Service
providers cited tariff-related uncertainty and hesitant clients. “Concerns over
tariffs and the broader economic outlook have led to delays in decision-making
and restrained spending,” de la Rubia said. Despite this, employment in
Germany’s private sector dipped only marginally, and manufacturing margins
improved due to falling input prices, particularly in energy.
The
fall in energy prices, tied to fears of a US recession, has been a tailwind for
producers. Manufacturing firms also reported a rare rise in export orders and a
modest ability to raise selling prices, hinting at budding pricing power for
the first time in nearly a year.
Dr.
Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said
manufacturing “seems to be holding up better than expected” in the face of the
fresh tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump earlier this month.
----France
struggles as downturn deepens
France,
however, painted a bleaker picture. The Composite PMI slid to 47.3 in April
from 48, below forecasts of 47.8.
The
country’s services sector bore the brunt of the contraction, with a Services
PMI of 46.8, while manufacturing remained weak, though stabilising somewhat at
48.2.
More
Eurozone
economy stalls in April as tariffs rattle services activity
EU
won't decouple from China as condition for reaching trade deal with Trump
22
April 2025
The
European Union will not decouple from the Chinese economy as a condition for
reaching a trade deal with Donald Trump's administration, the European
Commission said on Tuesday amid reports that the White House has asked
countries to do exactly that.
Although
the US has not officially confirmed the demand, Trump has sounded amenable to
making nations choose between Washington and Beijing in order to win permanent
concessions from his sweeping tariffs, which have shocked allies and
adversaries alike.
The
duties have been temporarily suspended for 90 days, a window of opportunity
that governments are betting on to strike commercial agreements.
"Maybe
in a certain way," Trump told Fox News when asked whether Latin America
should decouple from China. "Maybe, yeah, maybe they should do that."
The
mere suggestion was enough for Beijing to issue a pointed
warning of
retaliation.
"China
firmly opposes any party reaching a deal at the expense of China's
interests," the country's Ministry of Commerce said on Monday.
"If
this happens, China will never accept it and will resolutely take
countermeasures in a reciprocal manner. China is determined and capable of
safeguarding its own rights and interests. No one can remain immune to the
impact of unilateralism and protectionism."
On
Tuesday, the European Commission, which has exclusive competence to negotiate
the trade policy of the 27-member bloc, sought to distance itself from the
spat, insisting that talks with the US and relations with China are "two
distinct matters".
"We
have ongoing trade negotiations with our US counterparts," said Arianna
Podestà, the Commission's deputy spokesperson.
"It's
a negotiation between two parties and the two parties are discussing what are
the elements where a win-win outcome can be reached," she added.
"This
is distinct from our relation with China."
Podestà
stressed that, despite the latest developments, the bloc's policy on China
remained "the same", based on "de-risking, not decoupling".
However,
when asked whether China was "off the table" in negotiations with the
US, Podestà said the only red line was the "safety and well-being" of
EU citizens, a reference to the food safety standards that the White House has
labelled as a "non-tariff barrier".
More
EU won't decouple
from China as condition for reaching trade deal with Trump
Trump’s
trade war will hit US prosperity hard, IMF warns
Updated
11:36 AM EDT, Tue April 22, 2025
President
Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy and countermeasures by America’s
trading partners will likely deal a heavy blow to economies worldwide, with US
prosperity hit particularly hard, the International Monetary Fund warned
Tuesday.
Global
economic growth will slow to 2.8% this year, from 3.3% last year and
significantly below the historical average, the IMF forecast in its World
Economic Outlook report.
The
slowdown expected in the United States is even steeper, with its economy likely
to grow only 1.8% in 2025, compared with a 2.8% expansion in 2024.
Both
predictions are more pessimistic than the fund’s January projections, which
came before Trump’s flurry of tariff announcements took America’s average
import tax to its highest level in a century.
“The
swift escalation of trade tensions and extremely high levels of policy
uncertainty are expected to have a significant impact on global economic
activity,” the Washington, DC-based institution said. And risks to the global
economy are “firmly tilted to the downside,” it added.
Trump’s
new tariffs account for almost half of the sharp downgrade in the IMF’s US
growth forecast for this year, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief
economist, wrote in a blog post, noting that uncertainty over policy dented
demand in the US even before the recent tariff announcements.
North
America, just like all regions, can’t expect any upside from the tariffs
further down the line. “The long-term impact of the tariffs, if they are
maintained, (will be) negative for all regions, just like the short-term
impacts,” Gourinchas told reporters Tuesday.
Gourinchas
also said that “central bank independence remains a cornerstone.” The comment
comes just a day after Trump attacked US
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as a “major loser,” part of his
continuing campaign to pressure the central bank chief to cut interest rates.
Lowering
borrowing costs at this point would risk pushing up US inflation, which is
still running above the Fed’s 2% target and is likely to rise further because
of Trump’s tariffs, according to many forecasters.
The
IMF has grown gloomier on US prices and now sees inflation hitting 3% this
year, compared with its January forecast of 2%.
The
latest World Economic Outlook was put together under “exceptional”
circumstances, the IMF said. Trump’s unveiling of sweeping tariffs on April 2
“forced us to jettison our projections — nearly finalized at that point,” it
wrote.
Similarly,
Gourinchas told reporters: “We’re entering a new era as the global economic
system that has operated for the last 80 years is being reset.”
More
Trump’s tariffs will hit US prosperity hard, IMF warns | CNN Business
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Trump
administration may pull Covid-19 vaccine recommendation for children
April
22, 2025
HHS
Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is weighing pulling the Covid-19 vaccine from
the government’s list of recommended immunizations for children, two people
familiar with the discussions told POLITICO.
The
directive under consideration would remove the Covid shot from the childhood
vaccine schedule maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
and widely used by physicians to guide vaccine distribution, marking Kennedy’s
most significant move yet to shake up the nation’s vaccination practices.
Kennedy,
a longtime anti-vaccine activist, has previously questioned the need for kids
to get the shot, raising doubts about its safety and citing studies showing
healthy children face an extremely low risk of death from Covid.
Eliminating
the vaccine from the CDC schedule would not bar kids from receiving it. But the
change would represent an extraordinary intervention by Kennedy to override the
agency's scientific decision-making and reverse a recommendation backed by the
CDC and a slate of independent advisers just three years ago.
The
removal would also likely influence vaccination procedures across the nation.
Pediatricians rely on the CDC schedule to determine which vaccines they should
give children and when to administer them, in order to protect against a range
of common infectious diseases.
The
schedule is also closely watched by insurers in deciding which vaccines to
cover, as well as states and localities that determine which vaccines schools
require for students — though no states currently mandate the Covid shot.
More
Trump
administration may pull Covid-19 vaccine recommendation for children
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the development
of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
This is how your dirty sewage waste could be used to produce clean
energy
21 April 2025
A first-of-its-kind project to use gas from
sewage waste to produce clean energy is under way in Greater Manchester.
United Utilities has joined forces with
Cambridge-based climate tech firm Levidian to demonstrate the opportunity for
biogas produced from wastewater to create hydrogen and super-material graphene
- the thinnest and strongest material on the planet.
The trial is taking place at Manchester
Bioresources Centre, part of the Davyhulme Wastewater Treatment Works, where
modern-day sewage treatment processes were first developed back in 1914.
Supported by the Department for Energy
Security and Net Zero’s Hydrogen BECCS Innovation Programme, Levidian’s LOOP
device uses electromagnetic waves to split methane gas (CH4) into hydrogen and
carbon, capturing the carbon in solid form as graphene.
The lower carbon blend gas is then fed into
United Utilities’ onsite generator where it is burned to help power the site.
The graphene produced has a multitude of
use cases, from extending the life of tyres and driving down the carbon
footprint of concrete, to boosting the performance of batteries and solar
panels or creating cut resistant fibres.
Research by the firm has identified the
opportunity for biogas generated from sewage waste to be used as a fully
sustainable feedstock to produce up to 75,000 tonnes of hydrogen a year -
enough to fuel over 40 per cent of all UK bus and coach journeys.
Hydrogen could be used as a clean fuel for
industrial processes, zero carbon transport such as HGVs or blended into the
national gas network to reduce the emissions associated with heating homes and
cooking on gas.
Tom Lissett, Bioresource and Green Energy
Director at United Utilities, said: "This trial is a world first, and it’s
exciting to deliver it here in Manchester.
"We already use sewage sludge as a
sustainable feedstock for renewable energy and biomethane production and this
project brings potential to really build on that.
"We’re actively talking to partners
across the North West about the role we can play in decarbonising the region
and this is a great example of where we could make a positive contribution.
"We currently inject some of the
biogas we produce into the gas network and we’re exploring how we can support
the development of the hydrogen network in the region.
"Since it was built in 1894, Davyhulme
has played an important role in the development of wastewater treatment.
"When scientists here first developed
the processes that would go on to be used around the world, I’m sure they
couldn’t imagine just how far they would develop to enable us to harness
something that most people think of as a waste product, into a useful resource.
"It is a great example of a circular
economy in action."
Levidian aims to produce the cheapest
hydrogen anywhere in the world thanks to the production of high value graphene.
John Hartley, CEO of Levidian, said:
“Hydrogen is set to play a critical role in meeting the UK’s legally binding
commitment to achieve net zero by 2050 but is currently being held back due to
the cost of production – an issue we hope to unlock here in Manchester as we
continue to scale our LOOP technology to industrial levels.”
Alongside this trial, United Utilities is
exploring the potential to scale up use of the technology to increase hydrogen
production at Davyhulme and other sites across the North West.
This is how your dirty sewage waste could be used to produce clean energy
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
If
farming were to be organised like the stock market, a farmer would sell his
farm in the morning when it was raining, only to buy it back in the afternoon
when the sun came out.
John
Maynard Keynes
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