Baltic
Dry Index. 1373 +20 Brent Crude 66.87
Spot
Gold 3320 U S 2 Year Yield 3.74 -0.03
US
Federal Debt. 36.773 trillion!!!
Genius
is a rising stock market.
John Kenneth Galbraith
For more on the Trump
tariff wars going rapidly wrong, scroll down to the final YouTube section. We
have entered a rapidly changing economic world!
The new “Rome” is
dying in vast unrepayable fiat money debt, but we don’t know what replaces it,
or how fast. How long can an iPhone last? Will there be affordable toys for
Christmas 2025? Will there be any toys in the stores at all?
If President Trump
doesn’t rapidly drop his tariff war on the rest of the world, but directly focused
on China, the current stock casino relief rally will quickly turn into the
greatest stocks exit rally of our new century so far.
To dinosaur Graeme, I
think much of the supply chain damage is already irreversible. A great wave of
bankruptcies in America, Europe and Asia will hit across the summer. A great
financial crisis lies directly ahead.
A summer and fall of
unemployment also lies ahead. The stock casinos aren’t any nation’s economy. A
nation’s economy is made up of millions of workers and consumers plodding their
way through mundane daily life.
From shipping, to
manufacturing, to retailing, to real estate, to tourism, to everything else in
between, Trump’s tariff wars has tipped sand in the oil of international trade,
tossed a giant wrench into the US consumer led economy.
As we shortly enter
into the month of May, the consequences of the great mistake of trying to undo 50
years of globalisation in a matter of weeks, will fast become apparent to all.
S&P
500 closes higher for a fourth day in a row, notches 4% gain for the week
Updated
Fri, Apr 25 2025 4:57 PM EDT
The S&P
500 rose on Friday, adding to its strong gains for the week, as
investors continue to navigate an evolving global trade landscape while major
tech names got a boost.
The broad market benchmark ended 0.74% higher at
5,525.21, while the Nasdaq
Composite added 1.26% to end at 17,282.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged,
but managed to close 0.05%, or 20 points higher, at 40,113.50.
Alphabet rose
1.5% after the Google parent and “Magnificent Seven” name reported a beat on
the top and the bottom lines for the first quarter. Tesla, meanwhile, popped 9.8%,
while fellow megacap names Nvidia and Meta Platforms advanced 4.3%
and 2.7%, respectively.
The major averages rose on the week, notching their
second positive week out of three. The S&P 500 gained 4.6%, while the
Nasdaq climbed 6.7%. The Dow has underperformed but still cinched a one-week
advance of 2.5%. With these latest gains, Nasdaq is now slightly positive for
the month, but the S&P 500 is down 1.5% month to date. The Dow has fallen
4.5% so far in April.
Stocks have been taken for a wild ride in recent
weeks, as traders try to make sense of the severity of President Donald Trump’s
tariffs first unveiled on April 2. Mixed messaging around trade has added to
the volatility.
China said Thursday that there were no talks with
the U.S. on a potential trade deal. This came after the U.S. appeared to soften
its stance on trade relations with China.
On Friday, Time magazine published comments from Trump that said he would consider it a
“total victory” if the U.S. has high tariffs of 20% to 50% on foreign countries
a year from now. But his Tuesday comments published Friday also said the
president expects announcements on many deals to be coming “over the next three
to four weeks.”
Adding to the confusion, Trump told reporters from
Air Force One that he would not drop tariffs on China unless “they give us
something.”
Still, going forward, Jay Hatfield, founder and
chief investment officer of InfraCap, is optimistic that the worst of the
tariff-induced uncertainty is over.
“The confusion about whether there’s really talks
going on with China or not took some steam out of the market,” he told CNBC in
an interview. “Our view is that we’ve reached peak tariff tantrum and so it’s
likely to be more positive than negative.”
Hatfield believes the key driver for markets next
week will be earnings from big hyperscaler firms such as Microsoft and Amazon
Stock
market news for April 25, 2025
There
are signs the world is losing faith in the dollar
25 April 2025
First
he took the US on a collision course with China. Then he came for the rest of
the world.
He
crashed into the financial markets and now Donald Trump has been
gently tapping on the brakes all week.
The
world's economic policymakers have been on quite the journey over the past few
months.
Many
of them will have felt a little queasy as they got off the plane in Washington
DC for the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) annual spring meetings.
This
was their opportunity to talk. To strategise, strengthen alliances and figure
out their next move.
Rachel
Reeves was
in the mix. While all the focus has been on a US-UK trade deal - and she is due
to meet her US counterpart on Friday - the chancellor was also here to meet her
G7 and G20 allies.
Countries
across the world are eager for Mr
Trump to reduce his tariffs but they are also looking to each
other, reflecting on how the world might look in the future and whether the US
is a reliable long-term partner.
That
much was obvious from a conversation with Paschal Donohoe, Ireland's finance
minister and president of the Eurogroup.
He
told Sky News that Ireland, a highly US-orientated economy, was diversifying.
That
being said, he was "more optimistic than some" that a high level of
trade integration would prevail well into the future.
"What
I think is very possible is the structure of that globalisation could begin to
change," he said.
That
changing structure might include a rejection of China's decades-long model of
export-led growth.
Since
joining the World Trade Organisation in 2001, China has been pumping out cheap
goods into the world economy, making far more than it consumes at home.
Poor
countries across the world have taken a similar approach to development but the
US Treasury secretary said on the sidelines of the IMF on Wednesday that it was
"absurd" for multilateral institutions to continue treating China
like a developing economy.
There
is a recognition among world leaders that some of Mr Trump's grievances are
reasonable.
They
believe his approach is the wrong one but in interviews they are now talking
about the negative consequences of trade imbalances and globalisation - the
impact on communities and the undercutting of wages.
That
wasn't the case just a few months ago.
Ms
Reeves took it one step further. On Wednesday, the Treasury announced plans to
tackle the dumping of cheap goods into the UK - no doubt aimed at China.
She
announced a review of the customs' treatment of low-value imports.
Currently
goods valued at £135 escape the duty. The US has already taken action.
----The
IMF too. While the Fund sharply downgrades global growth forecasts, it shied
away from openly criticising the US president.
Kristalina
Georgieva, the IMF's managing director, spoke of an erosion of trust between
countries, and "concerns about the uneven distribution of gains from
economic integration, its impact on the international division of labour,
supply chain security, and global imbalances".
So,
Mr Trump has got policymakers to shift their priorities.
At
the very least, he has brought a long-simmering issue to the boil. The world is
thinking differently about China now.
The
US is also showing signs that it's thinking differently. After a bruising
showdown with the bond markets, Mr Trump has
rowed back on his liberation day tariffs.
The
administration has softened its language, saying it wants reform and to work
with institutions.
The
president said tariffs could come down substantially on China.
However,
a lot of damage has already been done - not only his erratic tariffs policy,
but also his attack on institutions, including the US Federal Reserve.
The
world is now thinking differently about the US too, as are the markets.
Investors
normally dive into US assets - government debt and the dollar - during times of
turmoil, but Mr Trump's pronouncement has caused traders to do the opposite.
There
are signs that the world is losing faith in the US' ultimate safe haven status.
There are signs
the world is losing faith in the dollar
In other news, some bad
news for Canada ahead of their Monday general election. But some good news for the mad tyrant King
George III.
Trump reinserts himself into Canadian politics, saying
'as a state, it works great'
U.S. president says auto tariffs could go up: ‘We don't want your cars’
CBC News · Posted: Apr 23, 2025 7:41
PM EDT
Days before the federal election and after more than
a week without commenting on Canada, U.S. President Donald Trump
resurfaced his 51st state rhetoric Wednesday afternoon and suggested he
could further raise auto tariffs.
The president was speaking to reporters from the
Oval Office, when he repeated his false claim that the United States "subsidizes"
Canada to the tune of $200 billion US a year.
"I have to be honest, as a state it works
great," Trump said. "Ninety-five per cent of what they do is
they buy from us and they sell to us."
The comments come as the Canadian federal election
had become less focused on U.S. economic and sovereignty threats and as the
Liberal lead over the Conservative Party has tightened in the past week.
If Canada didn't trade with the U.S., Trump said,
"as Trudeau told me, they would cease to exist … which is true,
certainly, as a country." The president said he called former
prime minister Justin Trudeau "Governor Trudeau, affectionately."
On tariffs, he said he was "working on a
deal" with Canada, but later suggested he could raise them further.
"I'm working well with Canada. We're doing very
well," Trump said, adding he didn't think it was "appropriate"
for him to weigh in on the Canadian election, despite seeming to do exactly
that.
"I have spoken to the current prime minister.
He was very, very nice. I will say we had a couple of very
nice conversations."
The Prime Minister's Office confirmed to
CBC News that Liberal Leader Mark Carney has only had one conversation
with the U.S. president, a telephone call on March 28. At the time, the two
leaders described the call as productive and Carney said that Trump had
respected Canadian sovereignty.
The Liberal leader has been campaigning on his
ability to deal with Trump. In Victoria on Wednesday, Carney mentioned the U.S. president several times, calling for a
"strong mandate" for a Liberal government.
More
Trump reinserts himself into Canadian politics, saying 'as a state, it
works great' | CBC News
Comparisons
between Trump and Mad King George are unfair — to King George: historian
March 24, 2025
George III, king of Great
Britain and its colonies at the time of the
American Revolution, has been maligned unfairly.
During both the first and now the second term of President
Donald Trump, commentators in the U.S. have invoked the king’s
misdeeds to criticize Trump. When the president bypassed Congress to create a new government agency, appointed its head and stopped payment of millions of dollars of allocated federal
funds, his critics noted that he assumed the role of Congress, a power grab
that supposedly made him similar to George III. According to this
criticism, the president engaged in tyranny, just as the founders accused
George of doing.
As a scholar
of early America, I believe, however, that George III has gotten a
bad rap. He was not the all-powerful monarch that Trump allegedly aspires to
be.
In the 1770s, the power of the British king was
limited by the authority of Parliament. In that system, which Americans and
others praised at the time as balanced, the king and the legislature each had specific duties and powers so that neither could control the government alone.
George III was not an absolutist monarch, to use the
language of the day for a power-hungry ruler. The English had struggled in the
previous century over the extent of the king’s power. After fighting two civil wars, executing one
king, and, eventually, forcing the monarch to agree to rule with Parliament rather
than on his own, they believed their liberties were safeguarded.
This system, known as limited monarchy, was the
pride of Great Britain. It was also admired by the American founders. As late
as 1774, in his Summary View of the Rights of British America, Thomas Jefferson
praised the “free and ancient principles” of the British constitution in which
“kings are the servants, not the proprietors of the people.”
Trump has been compared with King George III by many
writers and commentators; the White House on Feb. 19, 2024, issued the fake
magazine cover of Trump crowned like a king.
More
Comparisons between Trump and Mad King George are unfair — to King
George: historian - Alternet.org
The
American colonies, all know, were greatly opposed to taxation without
representation. They were also, a less celebrated quality, equally opposed to
taxation with representation.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
Global
Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.
Given our Magic Money
Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation/recession now needs an entire
section of its own.
China
planning for 'worst-case scenarios' in tariff dispute with US
25 April 2025
China's government is preparing its economy and
society for a more serious situation in the escalating tariff dispute with the
United States, the official Xinhua news agency reported from a Politburo
meeting led by state and party leader Xi Jinping.
The Central Committee of the Political Bureau of the
Communist Party of China (CPC) called for adequate planning for
"worst-case scenarios," Xinhua reported.
The foundation for a sustainable economic recovery
must continue to be strengthened as China increasingly faces "external
shocks," it said.
Party cadres demanded further improvement of
economic instruments to stabilize employment and the economy, with planned
political measures to be implemented early, Xinhua reported.
Beijing reportedly considers a loose monetary policy
and a reduction of interest rates at the "right time" to be
necessary.
The report did not mention specific details about
the plans that have already been partially announced, but people in the lower
and middle-income groups are expected to earn more to boost the currently weak
domestic consumption and further drive the economic engine.
Companies affected by the tariffs are expected to
receive additional support.
China and the US continue to engage in a bitter
trade dispute.
The important decision-making body of the Communist
Party met after contradictory statements from both sides about ongoing
negotiations.
The foundation for a sustainable economic recovery
must continue to be strengthened as China increasingly faces "external
shocks," it said.
Party cadres demanded further improvement of
economic instruments to stabilize employment and the economy, with planned
political measures to be implemented early, Xinhua reported.
Beijing reportedly considers a loose monetary policy
and a reduction of interest rates at the "right time" to be
necessary.
More
China planning for 'worst-case scenarios' in tariff dispute with US
Germany
economy panic as Donald Trump's tariffs crash forecast growth
24 April 2025
Germany has cut
its economic growth forecast for this year to zero, blaming Donald Trump's "unpredictable" tariffs policy. It's
another blow for Europe's biggest economy after its growth forecast was slashed
to 0.3% earlier this year after a previous estimation of 1.1%.
Germany's outgoing
Economy Minister Robert Habeck made it clear what he believes is the cause of
the downgrade. "There is above all one reason for this, namely Donald Trump's trade policy and the effects of the trade policy
on Germany," he said.
The US President imposed 20% "reciprocal" tariffs on the European Union earlier this month before announcing a 90-day
pause - however, the EU is continuing to face the baseline 10% tariff
as talks between Washington and the bloc continue.
"The German economy is once again facing major
challenges due to the unpredictable trade policy of the United States," Mr Habeck said.
"It is therefore in our strong interest that
the EU and
the US find a
solution to the tariff dispute."
It comes after a report published by the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday said Germany expected to see economic growth of 0.0% in
2025 and 0.9% in 2026 - a decrease of 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points
respectively.
The IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts due
to the impact of tariffs, expecting the US to be the hardest hit among advanced
economies.
The UK's growth forecast was also reduced to 1.1%, down
from 1.6%.
Germany has an
export-oriented economy and is the third-largest exporter in the world
after China and
the US.
It was the only economy in the G7 that did not grow
for the last two years and is now on track for a historic third year without
growth.
More
Germany economy panic as Donald Trump's tariffs crash forecast growth
Rate
cut speculation lights up as economic outlook darkens
24 April 2025
There
is growing speculation of a pick up in the pace of Bank of England interest
rate cuts as the outlook for the UK economy darkens, with fresh data suggesting
a renewed slump in consumer confidence.
While
the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported a tentative 0.4% rise in
retail sales volumes during March, a closely-watched measure of the consumer
mood, covering the current month, fell back sharply.
GfK's
confidence barometer showed a four point decline to -23, with worries about
the economy and personal
finances driving that fall.
At
the same, a respected reading of corporate health by the consultancy Begbies
Traynor reported a 13% leap in the number of firms facing "critical"
financial distress.
It
all bolsters recent evidence that the economy is slowing in the face of US
protectionism and rising bills for both businesses and households alike - with
the challenges only growing since the start of the month.
But
it has also led both economists and financial markets to agree that the
gloomier outlook from growing challenges makes it easier for the Bank of
England to accelerate interest rate reductions, starting next month, despite
forecasts of a big lift to inflation ahead.
A
weakening economy and rising inflation
The
UK was among the major economies hardest hit by a series of growth
downgrades issued
by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week.
It
was not a message the chancellor would have wished to hear on her visit to
Washington for the body's spring meetings, given the government's stated
priority of growing the economy.
Rachel
Reeves is bidding, during her trip, to help secure a US tariff truce for
the UK through the form of a new trade deal in a bid to relieve some of the
challenges facing the public finances.
But
in its assessment, the IMF declared some of the UK's problems were home grown.
Chief
among them is inflation.
Businesses
are tipped to be raising prices to help account for tax rises in the
chancellor's autumn budget - costs that lobby groups warn will also harm jobs
and investment.
At
the same time, household spending power has also been hurt by a surge in
essential bills since the beginning of April, with those for energy, water and
council tax among those marching ahead by far more than the current pace of
price growth.
Inflation
is forecast to rise from this month, potentially breaching the 3% mark by the
year's end.
Trade
war the biggest threat
It
is clear the trade war is already having a big impact on confidence and
activity across the sectors which account for the bulk of UK output.
A
closely-watched index of activity in the service and manufacturing industries
fell into negative territory this week, showing its weakest reading since
November 2022.
The
survey of purchasing managers by S&P Global found export orders falling at
their fastest pace since early 2020.
How
this could all affect thinking at the Bank of England
On
the same day that report was released, LSEG data showed financial markets
had fully
priced in a
Bank of England rate cut on 8 May.
It
was on the back of remarks by a member of the monetary policy committee (MPC)
that the trade war could place downwards pressure on UK inflation, largely
because the UK's decision not to respond to Donald Trump's import duties
through reciprocal tariffs could make the country a destination for cheaper
goods from Asia and Europe.
It
has led some to speculate a bumper Bank rate cut of half a point to 4% is on
the cards.
Others
see a more gradual acceleration, with the market data showing an easing to 3.5%
by December is possible.
Such
a scenario would come as a welcome boost to hard pressed borrowers, especially
those seeking a new fixed term mortgage deal given the leap in rates witnessed
since 2022.
Rob
Wood, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note this week:
"All told, we think the MPC [monetary policy committee] has enough
evidence for precautionary back-to-back rate cuts in May and June, but it
cannot jump into easing with both feet going for 50bp [basis point] reductions
or green-lighting four or more further cuts this year - because of rising
inflation pressures.
"The
MPC still has a difficult growth-inflation balancing act to pull off, although
the growth side is worsening most."
Rate cut
speculation lights up as economic outlook darkens
Technology
Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
This weekend, it
looks like the future is Cattle CATL.
Five-minute EV charging: CATL says "Hold my electrons and
watch this"
By Joe Salas April 23, 2025
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), the largest
battery manufacturer in the world with a 38% share of the global market, has
just announced some fairly significant breakthroughs in battery tech that
aren't just theoretical; they're already hitting the market.
- The Naxtra
battery is the first mass-produced sodium-ion battery in the world.
- The Freevoy
Dual-Power battery has dual architecture with several options.
- The
Second-Gen Shenxing Superfast Charging battery charges, well, super fast.
For starters, sodium is far cheaper, more abundant, and
significantly safer than lithium – and the Naxtra sodium-ion battery isn't just
a lab-grown prototype, it's already in production. CATL has managed to stuff in
energy density on par with today’s lithium-ion cells at around 175 Wh/kg
– and with a shockingly good 10,000+ charge cycles over its
lifetime.
This is a really big deal.
For example: Tesla LFP (LiFePO4/lithium iron phosphate) battery
packs are rated between 3,000 and 4,000 charge cycles before the battery
capacity degrades below 70-80%. While still usable, that would relegate
your Tesla 3 Long Range from
its EPA-estimated 363-mile (584-km) range down to roughly 255 miles (410 km).
Real-world data has shown that after 200,000 miles (322,000 km), the average
battery capacity loss is about 15%. Pretty solid numbers, but CATL's claim
doesn't just one-up today's battery tech, it absolutely decimates it.
If CATL's >10,000 charge cycles claims aren't simply marketing
fluff, you're looking at closer to 3.6 million miles (5.8
million km) of driving before dropping below 85% capacity and you just might be
passing these batteries down to future generations for their flying cars.
Another benefit of sodium over lithium is its cold weather
performance, working from -40 °F to 158 °F (-40 °C to 70 °C). Even with a 10%
charge remaining, CATL claims the Naxtra battery will still punch out full
power at negative forty degrees. Working temps for traditional
lithium-ion batteries generally fall between -4 °F to 140 °F (-20 °C to 60 °C)
for discharging, with a much stricter charge temp between 32 °F to
113 °F (0 °C to 45 °C).
CATL has
also thrown a Naxtra Heavy-Duty Truck Integrated Start-Stop Battery 24-volt
option into the mix for big trucks and machinery. It's said to last
significantly longer than traditional flooded lead-acid batteries. And even
after sitting idly for a year, it will still crank your starter, slashing
lifetime costs by 61% over old lead-acid tech, claims the company.
The next big thing on the list is the Freevoy Dual-Power battery.
Think of it like a battery within a battery with different chemical makeups for
five layers of duality: Dual high-voltage, low-voltage, thermal management,
structure, and safety systems. The battery system actively switches between
zones based on how you drive, be it short or long trips, hard acceleration, or
frigid winters ... the Freevoy can mix and match cell chemistries.
More
CATL's Naxtra,
Freevoy, & Shenxing Batteries: Game Changing EV Tech?
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
This
weekend’s music diversion. Another long forgotten maestro. Approx.8 minutes.
Francesco
Manfredini (1684-1762) - Concerto con due Trombe (1711)
Francesco
Manfredini (1684-1762) - Concerto con due Trombe (1711)
This
weekend’s tariff diversions. Approx. 11
minutes. Approx. 2 minutes. Approx 12
minutes.
China
Cancels All U.S Soybean Orders! 2.4 Million Tons And $1.1 Billion Gone In
Hours!
China Cancels All
U.S Soybean Orders! 2.4 Million Tons And $1.1 Billion Gone In Hours!
Arizona
farmer's exports to China go to zero after tariffs
Arizona farmer's
exports to China go to zero after tariffs
The
CEOs of Walmart, Target, Home Depot Warn That Store Shelves All Over America
Could Soon Be Empty
The CEOs of
Walmart, Target, Home Depot Warn That Store Shelves All Over America Could Soon
Be Empty
This
weekend’s final interesting diversion. A new SWIFT? Approx. 12 minutes.
China
Cut Offs SWIFT: $1.2 Trillion Digital Yuan Goes Global—Can The U.S. Stop This?
China Cut Offs
SWIFT: $1.2 Trillion Digital Yuan Goes Global—Can The U.S. Stop This? - YouTube
"When a President does it, that means that it is not
illegal.”
President Trump Nixon.
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