Baltic
Dry Index. 1540 -43 Brent Crude 69.47
Spot Gold 3104 US 2 Year Yield 3.71 -0.20
US Federal Debt. 36.680 trillion!!!
From
now on, the pound abroad is worth 14 per cent or so less in terms of other
currencies. That doesn't mean, of course, that the Pound here in Britain, in
your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued.
Harold
Wilson
With the global stock casinos, plus oil and gold, crashing due to the Great Trumpian Error of Tariff Tyranny, which is well covered in mainstream media, there’s little need for my input, except to ask who taught Aussie Penguins how to make electrical machinery? Why?
In a bizarre twist to the escalating U.S.
trade war, President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from two
Australian territories inhabited solely by penguins.
The move has sparked confusion and satire
across the Pacific, as the targeted region, the Heard and McDonald Islands, is
entirely uninhabited and rarely visited by humans.
---- Even more puzzling were figures showing that the U.S. had imported $1.4 million worth of goods from the Heard and McDonald Islands in 2022 — mostly categorized as “electrical machinery.”
Japan stocks extend declines as Trump tariffs roil
markets, Nikkei falls over 2%
Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 10:58 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets extended declines on
Friday, tracking steep losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald
Trump’s tariffs rattled global markets.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.06%.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.07%
while the Topix declined 2.69%.
South Korea’s Kospi slipped 1.03% and the
small-cap Kosdaq was 0.30% higher after the country’s Constitutional Court
upheld the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, ousting him from office.
The decision now starts a 60-day countdown
where a presidential election must be held to select the next president. Prime
Minister Han Duck-soo has been reinstated
as acting president in the mean time.
Hong Kong and China markets are closed for
the Qingming Festival.
On Wednesday, Trump unveiled reciprocal
tariff rates that over 180 countries and territories will face, raising the
risk of a global trade war.
U.S.
futures fell after Trump’s tariffs led to the largest decline in U.S.
equities in five
years.
Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost
100 points, or 0.3%, after the 30-stock average tumbled more than 1,600 points
in the prior session. S&P
500 futures and Nasdaq
100 futures each shed 0.2%.
Overnight in the U.S., the three major
averages plummeted. The S&P
500 slid back into correction territory, dropping 4.84% to 5,396.52.
The Dow Jones Industrial
Average tumbled 1,679.39 points, or 3.98%, to close at 40,545.93 and
the Nasdaq Composite fell
5.97% to end at 16,550.61, logging its biggest decline since March 2020.
Asia-Pacific
markets live: Nikkei 225, Trump tariffs
Dow nosedives 1,600 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq
drop the most since 2020 after Trump’s tariff onslaught
Updated Thu, Apr 3 2025 4:37 PM EDT
Stocks plummeted Thursday, sending
the S&P 500 back
into correction territory for its biggest one-day loss since 2020, after
President Donald Trump unveiled sweeping
tariffs, raising the risk of a global trade war that plunges the economy into a
recession.
The broad market index dropped 4.84% and
settled at 5,396.52, posting its worst day since June 2020. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled
1,679.39 points, or 3.98%, to close at 40,545.93 and mark its worst session
since June 2020. The Nasdaq
Composite plummeted 5.97% and ended at 16,550.61, registering its
biggest decline since March 2020. The slide across equities was broad, with
more than 400 of the S&P 500′s constituents posting losses.
Thursday’s moves sent the S&P 500 to
its lowest level since before Trump’s election win in November. The benchmark
now sits about 12% from its record close touched in February.
Shares of multinational companies
tumbled. Nike and Apple dropped 14% and 9%,
respectively. Big sellers of imported goods were among the hardest hit. Five Below lost nearly
28%, Dollar Tree tumbled
13% and Gap plunged
20%. Tech shares dropped in an overall risk-off mood, with Nvidia off almost 8%
and Tesla down more
than 5%.
A baseline tariff rate of 10% on all
countries goes into effect April 5. Even bigger duties against countries that
levy higher rates on the U.S. will be charged in coming days, according to the
administration.
----- JPMorgan
economists said
a recession was now likely if these new tariff rates are sustained and
not negotiated lower.
Stock
market today: Live updates, Trump tariffs
Dow futures fall after tariffs push market to
biggest losses since 2020: Live updates
Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 7:42 PM EDT
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slid
Thursday night after President Donald Trump’s tariff plan triggered the biggest
slide in U.S. equities in five years.
Futures tied to the blue-chip index lost
77 points, or 0.2%, after the 30-stock average tumbled more than 1,600 points
in the prior session. S&P
500 futures lost 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures were
marginally lower.
Thursday night’s action follows the worst
day since 2020 for each of the three major indexes. The Dow and S&P 500 dropped roughly
4% and 4.8%, respectively, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged
nearly 6%.
The S&P 500 fell back into a
correction Thursday, down more than 10% from its February all-time high. The
small-cap focused Russell 2000 dove
more than 6%, the first widely followed measure of U.S. stocks to enter
a bear market, or a decline of at least 20% from its last peak.
Thursday’s sell-off hit megacap technology
stocks especially hard, with CNBC’s
Magnificent Seven index sliding more than 6%. Collectively, the stocks
in the “Magnificent Seven,” which led the market higher in both 2023 and
2024, lost
more than $1 trillion in market value.
The Nasdaq Composite has led the way lower
for stocks this week, falling 4.5% as the tariff plan drove investors to reduce
their risk exposure. The S&P 500 and Dow Industrials have slipped 3.3% and
2.5%, respectively, week to date. Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 are tracking
for their worst weekly performances since September 2024 and sixth negative
week of the last seven.
Global markets sold off after Trump on
Wednesday announced a baseline tariff rate of 10% on imported goods from all
countries going into effect April 5. Several nations face far higher levies,
according to the White House.
Investors now wonder if countries will be
able to strike trade deals with the U.S. to reduce tariff duties. Trump said
Thursday he is open
to trade negotiations, an about-face from earlier statements by
administration officials.
“The Trump administration may be playing a
game of chicken with trading partners, but market participants aren’t willing
to wait around for the results,” said Michael Arone, SPDR chief investment
strategist at State Street Global Advisors. “Investors are selling first
and asking questions later.”
Investors on Friday morning will focus on
the closely
watched jobs report for March. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect
nonfarm payrolls to rise by 140,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to hold
steady at 4.1%.
Stock
market today: Live updates
US dollar pounded amid fears Trump's trade war
will plunge the US into recession
3 April 2925
The pound and the euro raced to six-month
highs against the dollar yesterday on fears Donald Trump’s trade war will
plunge the US into recession.
As panic mounted amid warnings of an
economic ‘spiral of doom’, sterling topped $1.32 for the first time since
October while the single currency rose above $1.11.
The greenback was also sharply lower
against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc and has now fallen more than 6pc
against a basket of global currencies in 2025 – its worst start to the year
since 1995. It has given up all the gains made since Trump’s election win in
November.
‘The blowback of US tariffs on to the US
domestic economy leaves the dollar naked,’ warned Chris Turner, global head of
markets at banking group ING.
Investors dumping the dollar flocked to
the relative safety of government bonds, pushing prices up and yields lower.
The yield on ten-year UK gilts fell
towards 4.5pc having touched 4.8pc last week in the wake of Chancellor Rachel
Reeves’ Spring Statement.
The equivalent yield on US Treasuries
dropped to 4 per cent for the first time since October.
The latest ructions came after the US
President slapped a baseline 10 per cent tariff on imports from around the
world and added eye-watering top-ups on dozens of trade partners.
While Trump insisted tariffs would ‘make
America wealthy again’, analysts warned they could tip the US into recession.
This is how you sabotage the world’s
economic engine while claiming to supercharge it,’ said Nigel Green of the
global financial advisory Devere Group.
Countries are now drawing up plans for
tit-for-tat tariffs as protectionism sweeps the globe. ‘It’s clear countries
will think about how to retaliate in a politically astute way,’ said Justin
Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James’s Place.
‘Significant retaliation could lead to a
tariff spiral of doom that could be the growth shock that drags us into
recession.’
The slump in the dollar and government
bond yields suggests investors are more concerned about a downturn in the US
economy than the inflationary impact of tariffs pushing up the price of
imported goods.
George Brown, an economist at Schroders,
said tariffs put the US Federal Reserve, the central bank, ‘between a rock and
a hard place’ as it is left to grapple with weaker economic growth and higher
inflation.
Chris Iggo, chief investment officer at
AXA Investment Managers, said: ‘The US’s more aggressive stance on trade
appears to be turning global investor sentiment away from the world’s largest
economy.
More
US
dollar pounded amid fears Trump's trade war will plunge the US into recession
Trump tariffs to drag global growth down by
trillions of dollars
Thursday 03 April 2025 11:47 am
Donald Trump’s tariffs is set to drag the
world economy down by trillions of dollars, according to forecasts by leading
economists.
The International Monetary Fund estimates
the current global economy is worth more than $115 trillion and it has been
predicted to grow by around three per cent, per various forecasts.
But since Trump announced
damaging tariffs reaching as high as 49 per cent, economists have been rapidly
downgrading their forecasts.
Panmure Liberum’s Simon French
dropped his prediction for global economic output growth to 2.5 per cent from
3.25 per cent.
He attributed this lower estimate to the
“demand shock” that will shake the world.
The National Institute
of Economic and Social Research said ahead of Trump’s Rose Garden
speech that ten per cent tariffs could hold back global output by around two
per cent over five years.
A 0.5 per cent knock to global GDP would
equate to around $5 trillion.
Tariffs on different countries have varied
as the UK was left relatively unscathed in comparison to the likes of Cambodia
and Vietnam.
China, meanwhile, now faces taxes on its
exports to the US of around 54 per cent when earlier tariffs are taken into
account.
Economists have set out to calculate the
global average rate of tariffs, with estimates ranging between 18 per cent and
22 per cent.
ING’s James Knightley said the total value
of the tariffs poised to upend the global economy was $600bn.
There are growing concerns about what
‘Liberation Day’ means for some of the world’s economic powerhouses.
US economy now “vulnerable” to recession
Oxford Economics’ Ryan Sweet said
the US economy is now “dangerously vulnerable” to a recession, a prospect which
is likely to devastate major trading partners across Europe and Asia.
Sweet also suggested the worst could be
yet to come, with President Trump claiming his tariffs were “very kind”.
“Uncertainty hasn’t been materially
reduced, as it’s unclear if these tariffs are a cap, if they could move even
higher or how long they will be in place.”
Chatham House researcher Max Yoeli
suggested an all-out global trade war had now begun.
“Internationally, it is likely today’s
measures will accelerate US trade partners’ diversifying their relationships
and reducing reliance on the US,” he said.
“Once the first salvos are fired in a
trade war, it is difficult to predict where it will end, and this uncertainty
poses vexing challenges for businesses and governments alike.”
Trump tariffs to
drag global growth down by trillions of dollars
Pharma tariff relief likely short-lived with
sector-specific duties on the horizon
Published Thu, Apr 3 2025 6:25 AM EDT
Pharmaceutical companies breathed a sigh
of relief Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump revealed that they would
not be subject to reciprocal tariffs — but that reprieve could prove fleeting
as the White House moves ahead with plans for the sector.
The Trump administration is considering
launching a so-called 232 investigation into pharmaceuticals, among other
industries, which could lead to import duties under the Trade Expansion Act.
“The pharmaceutical companies are going to
come roaring back, they are coming roaring back, they are all coming back to
our country because if they don’t they got a big tax to pay. And if they do,
I’ll be very happy,” Trump said during his “Liberation Day” tariff
announcement.
In a national emergency declaration
accompanying the tariff plan, the White House cited the “particularly acute”
need to reinforce domestic manufacturing across sectors such as
pharmaceuticals, autos and shipbuilding.
Health care stocks opened slightly higher
Thursday, but the Stoxx Healthcare index then dipped 0.4% by 11:00 a.m. London
time, extending losses from the previous session as investors braced for more
uncertainty ahead.
Switzerland’s Roche led declines, shedding 2.4%,
while Wegovy-maker Novo fell 0.7%. Other regional players including Novartis, Bavarian Nordic, AstraZeneca ticked
slightly higher.
The pharma industry’s hopes of a
sector-wide tariff carve-out faded after Trump last week confirmed that an
announcement would come soon, but drugmakers have since been lobbying the
administration for a phased approach to allow
companies time to relocate their manufacturing Stateside.
“A whispered potential for a phase-in
approach, if it materializes, could dampen immediate shocks across the
industry,” Citi said in a note Thursday.
Nevertheless, even with a delayed
approach, the complex nature of pharmaceutical supply chains mean that
“larger-scale shifts are on a multi-year timeline,” making any relief
potentially short lived.
Novo Nordisk declined to
comment on the tariff developments on Thursday, but chairman Helge Lund told
CNBC last week that the company was not speculating on any levy announcements
and was instead focused on remaining “flexible.”
More
Pharma tariff
relief likely short-lived as sector-specific duties on the horizon
Trump Slaps 10% Tariffs on Remote
Penguin-Inhabited Islands
3 April 2025
And no - it's not a late April First.
In a bizarre twist to the escalating U.S.
trade war, President Donald Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on goods from two
Australian territories inhabited solely by penguins.
The move has sparked confusion and satire
across the Pacific, as the targeted region, the Heard and McDonald Islands, is
entirely uninhabited and rarely visited by humans.
The islands, located in the Southern Ocean
between Antarctica and Australia, are considered among the most isolated places
on Earth.
Covered in glaciers and home to vast
colonies of penguins and seals, the volcanic islands have not seen a human
visitor in nearly a decade. Despite this, they appeared on an official White
House list of “countries” facing new U.S. import tariffs, as reported by Digi24.
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese
commented dryly, “Nowhere on Earth is safe,” after news broke that even this
icy wilderness had been swept up in Washington’s sweeping protectionist
campaign.
The Heard and McDonald Islands are
administered by Australia as external territories, along with other sparsely
populated or uninhabited regions like the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, Christmas
Island, and Norfolk Island — all of which were listed separately in the White
House tariff announcement.
One of the most baffling entries on the
list was Norfolk Island, a tiny Pacific outpost with just over 2,000 residents,
which received a 29% tariff — notably higher than mainland Australia’s 10%.
However, local officials disputed the data
that underpinned the tariffs. George Plant, administrator of Norfolk Island,
said, “There are no known exports from Norfolk Island to the United States.”
Even more puzzling were figures showing
that the U.S. had imported $1.4 million worth of goods from the Heard and
McDonald Islands in 2022 — mostly categorized as “electrical machinery.” No
such production facilities or settlements exist there, raising questions about
the accuracy of export data or possible mislabeling.
More
Trump Slaps 10% Tariffs on Remote Penguin-Inhabited Islands
In other news, a fatal EV fire in Madrid.
Deaths in Garage Fire
by Hugh
MacArthur • April
3, 2025
Two firefighters have died and 14 injured
in a garage fire in Madrid yesterday. Of those injured, only one was seriously
injured with the rest all suffering from mild toxic inhalation.
According to emergency-services sources,
the fire was probably caused by an electric car that went up in flames within
the garage on Calle Lilos the barrio of Las Retamas.
As for the deaths, it appears that one of
the deceased had been caught out by an explosion that affected several parked
cars. The second death was caused by severe, toxic-fumes inhalation leading to
the victim succumbing on his way to Getafe University Hospital.
The explosions, flames and toxic smoke
necessitated the evacuation of the building above the garage and those within
the immediate vecinity.
Deaths in Garage
Fire - Costa Tropical Gazette News
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
‘Absolutely
nothing good’ coming out of Trump’s tariff announcement: Analysts react to
latest U.S. levies
Published
Thu, Apr 3 2025 2:17 AM EDT
U.S.
President Donald Trump on Wednesday
laid out the “reciprocal tariff” rates that more
than 180 countries and territories will face under his sweeping new trade
policy.
The
announcement sent stocks tumbling and prompted investors to seek refuge in
assets perceived to be safe.
Analysts
generally had a pessimistic take on the announcement, with some even predicting
an increased risk of a recession for the U.S.
Here
is a compilation of reactions from experts and analysts:
Tai
Hui, APAC Chief Market Strategist, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
“Today’s
announcement could potentially raise U.S. average tariff rates to levels not
seen since the early 20th century. If these tariffs persist, they could
materially impact inflation, as U.S. manufacturing struggles to ramp up
capacity and supply chains pass on costs to consumers. For instance, advanced
semiconductor manufacturers in Taiwan may not absorb tariff costs without
viable substitutes.
“The
scale of these tariffs raises concerns about growth risks. U.S. consumers may
cut back on spending due to pricier imports, and businesses might delay capital
expenditures amid uncertainty about the tariffs’ full impact and potential
retaliation from trade partners.”
David
Rosenberg, President and founder of Rosenberg Research
“There
are no winners in a global trade war. And when people have to realize, when you
hear this clap trap about how consumers in United States are not going to bear
any brunt. It’s all going to be the foreign producer. I roll my eyes whenever I
hear that, because it shows a zero understanding of how trade works, because it
is the importing business that pays the tariff, not the exporting country.
And
a lot of that will get transmitted into the consumer, so we’re in for several
months of a very significant price shock for the American household sector.”
Anthony
Raza, Head of Multi-Asset Strategy, UOB Asset Management
“They’ve
come up with the most extreme numbers that we can’t even comprehend. How
they’re coming up with these? And then in terms of timing, I think we were
hopeful that maybe this would be something that was rolled out over the course
of a year, that would allow like time for negotiations or whatever. But it does
seem like the timing is much more immediate and is, again, worse than our
worst-case type scenario in terms of flexibility.”
David
Roche, Strategist, Quantum Strategy
”These tariffs are not transitional. They are core to President Trump’s
beliefs. They mark the shift from globalisation to isolationist, nationalist
policies – and not just for economics. The process will last several years and
be felt for decades. There will be spillovers into multiple policy domains such
as geopolitics.
Right now, expect retaliation, not negotiation by the EU (targeting U.S.
services) and China (focusing on U.S. strategic and business interests). The
Rose Garden tariffs will cement the bear market. They will cause global
stagflation as well as U.S. and EU recession.”
More
Fed's
Kugler says inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy
April
2, 2025
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - Progress towards the U.S. central bank's 2% inflation target has
slowed recently and may have stalled, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler
said on Wednesday, a reason to keep interest rates where they are.
"Recent
disinflation has been slower, and the latest data indicate that progress toward
the Federal Open Market Committee's 2% goal may have stalled," Kugler said
in remarks prepared for delivery for an event at Princeton University.
In
addition to that lack of progress, Kugler noted the recent rise in inflation
expectations, and the "upside risks associated with announced and
prospective policy changes," such as the import tariffs planned by the
Trump administration.
Kugler
said she would support keeping the Fed's benchmark policy rate in the current
4.25%-4.50% range "for as long as these upside risks to inflation
continue," given ongoing economic growth and stable employment.
The
job market does seem to be moderating, she said, but does not appear to be
weakening significantly.
Kugler
focused much of her speech on the role inflation expectations play in
price-setting behavior among firms and wage demands in households.
The
fact that inflation was recently so high, she said, meant expectations may be
more sensitive to further price moves.
Measures
of expectations have risen lately, Kugler said, something the Fed needs to
watch. She said, however, that she took "some comfort from the much
smaller increases in longer-term expectations" seen in some surveys and
market-based measures.
The
Fed held interest rates steady at its March 18-19 meeting, and central bank
officials have said they want more clarity on the impact of President Donald
Trump's policies. Fed policymakers' projections for the year, however, showed
they expect higher inflation and slower growth than they did in December before
the sweep of Trump's tariff plans became clearer.
Fed's Kugler says
inflation progress may have stalled, backs steady rate policy
Covid-19
Corner
This
section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported.
Sunny weather
sees new record for British solar power
2
April 2025
Sunny
conditions helped solar power generate a new record high of more than 12.5
gigawatts of electricity on Tuesday, the system operator has said.
The
record 12.569GW of power from solar – equivalent to around four new nuclear
power plants – was generated between 12:30 and 1pm on Tuesday.
And
with the sunny conditions continuing, there is potential for the new record to
be broken again later this week.
A
spokesperson for the National Energy System Operator (Neso) said it was “great
to see solar being able to play an ever increasing role in our energy mix”.
The
spokesperson said: “Over the last six years we’ve been working to reconfigure
the network to enable more and more clean power sources to operate as the use
of coal has been phased out.
“Today’s
new solar record is testament to the work our teams have been leading to
deliver our 2025 ambition for zero carbon operation.”
Responding
to the new record, Jess Ralston, analyst at the Energy and Climate Intelligence
Unit (ECIU) think tank said increased solar power generation made Britain less
reliant on gas, the cost of which soared following Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine.
“Every
new solar panel installed in the UK makes us less dependent on gas imports,
which is good for our energy independence as well as for stabilising energy
bills given the sun offers up its power for free.
“As we
install more solar and build more wind turbines, our reliance on gas will fall,
as will our vulnerability to the likes of Putin.
“Volatile
gas prices cost us an extra £140 billion since the crisis began so there are
benefits for tax payers and bill payers alike,” she said.
Sunny weather sees
new record for British solar power
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
Another weekend and the first weekend of the newly
started Trump global trade war. How long it lasts and how it ends, no one
knows. Who will be the winners, if any, and who will be the losers is an open
question, although US consumers will be among the losers by paying higher
prices for imported goods. Have a great
weekend everyone.
The ambition of the present
Labour government is that every worker in the country will have a greater than
average income.
Harold Wilson
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