Friday, 11 April 2025

After Trump Blinked, The EU Pauses Tariffs For 90 Days. Who “Wins?”

 Baltic Dry Index. 1269 +10       Brent Crude 63.16

Spot Gold 3209               US 2 Year Yield 3.84 -0.07  

US Federal Debt. 36.709 trillion!!!

The cynics are right nine times out of ten.

H. L. Mencken

It’s anyone’s guess as to where the stock casinos will close out the week.

There’s no sign of a coherent trade policy in Washington, District of Crooks.

Rather, tariff team Trump seem now to be spooked by a growing crisis in the US Treasury market.

Who knew, flip-flopping on tariff war announcements daily, would destabilise global stock markets leading to flight out the US Treasury market. Certainly no one on team Trump in Washington or the Trump White House.

A question for a later investigation, was anyone in Washington front-running any of the Trump tariff announcements and flip-flops?

Suspicious old dinosaur Graeme, thinks yes, but then I’ve been around stock and commodity markets since 1968. Human nature and temptation is what it is.

For every winner in whipsaw markets there are usually far more losers. Wealth is now getting destroyed on a biblical scale. I only hope no banks are now insolvent but hiding it. Look away from that record gold price now.

Japan stocks plunge over 5% as Asia-Pacific markets resume sell-off on U.S.-China trade war worries

Updated Fri, Apr 11 2025 11:40 PM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets fell Friday, after Wall Street resumed sell-off overnight as trade war tensions between the world’s two largest economies fueled risk-off mood.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 2.28%.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 lost 5.46%, while the Topix traded 5.05% lower. South Korea’s Kospi fell 1.55% and the small-cap Kosdaq declined 0.11%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index was down 0.8% while China’s CSI 300 dipped 0.13%.

U.S. President Donald Trump announced a tariff U-turn Wednesday, dropping the new reciprocal tariff rates on imports from most countries for 90 days.

“The extension of time does not alleviate uncertainty,” ANZ analysts wrote in a note. “There is skepticism about the outcome of trade negotiations, and that will continue to weigh on investment and thus the growth outlook.”

Additionally, the cumulative tariff rate on China now would be 145%, the White House confirmed to CNBC on Thursday. The figure consists of the new 125% duty on goods, on top of the 20% duty linked to the fentanyl crisis.

U.S. stock futures moved higher as investors look to close out a volatile week, punctuated by sharp swings for the major averages. S&P 500 futures added 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed roughly 0.1%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked higher by 28 points, or nearly 0.1%.

Overnight in the U.S., the three major averages closed lower, giving back some of the gains from the historic rally seen in the previous session after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on some of his “reciprocal” tariffs.

The S&P 500 sold off 3.46% and closed at 5,268.05, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.31% to end at 16,387.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, settling at 39,593.66.

Asia-Pacific markets live: Trump trade war, China tariffs

Stock futures fall as major averages resume their slide, fueled by tariff anxiety: Live updates

Updated Fri, Apr 11 2025 10:18 PM EDT

Stock futures fell on Thursday night as investors look to close out a volatile week, punctuated by sharp swings for the major averages.

S&P 500 futures slipped 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures lost 0.9%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 277 points, or 0.7%.

Tariff fears remain at the forefront of investors’ minds after President Donald Trump temporarily slashed his country-specific duties to a universal rate of 10% — except for China. Goods from Beijing will see a rate of 145%, a White House official confirmed to CNBC.

The S&P 500 fell 3.46% on Thursday, while the 30-stock Dow tumbled 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended the day lower by 4.31%.

Thursday’s declines wiped a chunk of the gains the major averages saw on Wednesday after Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on some of his high “reciprocal” tariffs. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 surged 9.52% for its third-largest gain in a single day since World War II and the 30-stock Dow skyrocketed more than 2,900 points.

Stocks resumed their losing ways on Thursday as traders went into risk-off mode, with trade policy uncertainty weighing on sentiment.

The “lower tariff level is still a huge problem, and deadlines three months out offer no certainty for consumers, business, and investors,” said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital Management. “This set of policies will leave the U.S. with higher inflation, lower economic growth, and a frustrated stock market.”

Here are the tariffs currently in place:

  • 145% duty on all goods from China
  • 25% tariffs targeting aluminum, autos and goods from Canada and Mexico not under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement
  • 10% levy on all other imports

Despite the tumultuous week, the three major averages are on pace for solid gains in the period. The S&P 500 is on pace for a 3.8% advance, its best weekly performance since November. The Nasdaq is on track to gain 5.1%. The Dow is on pace for a 3.3% jump week to date.

Investors are now turning to a slew of earnings out Friday from the nation’s largest banks and financial companies, which will kick off first-quarter earnings season and offer clues about the state of the U.S. economy. Morgan StanleyWells FargoJPMorgan Chase and BlackRock are a few names set to report their financial results.

On the economic front, the March producer price index report and the preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment data for April will be released Friday.

Stock market today: Live updates

Dow tumbles 1,000 points, wiping out a chunk of Wednesday’s historic rally: Live updates

Updated Thu, Apr 10 2025 4:22 PM EDT

Stocks fell Thursday, giving back some of the gains from the historic rally seen in the previous session after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on some of his “reciprocal” tariffs. Investors worried that even with the short pause on some of the duties, economic activity will be slowed by Trump’s singling out of China with a much higher rate.

The S&P 500 sold off 3.46% and closed at 5,268.05, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.31% to end at 16,387.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, settling at 39,593.66.

Notable decliners included Apple and Tesla, which pulled back 4.2% and 7.3%, respectively. Nvidia lost nearly 6%, while Meta Platforms slipped almost 7%.

Stocks fell Thursday, giving back some of the gains from the historic rally seen in the previous session after President Donald Trump announced a 90-day reprieve on some of his “reciprocal” tariffs. Investors worried that even with the short pause on some of the duties, economic activity will be slowed by Trump’s singling out of China with a much higher rate.

The S&P 500 sold off 3.46% and closed at 5,268.05, while the Nasdaq Composite slid 4.31% to end at 16,387.31. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,014.79 points, or 2.5%, settling at 39,593.66.

Notable decliners included Apple and Tesla, which pulled back 4.2% and 7.3%, respectively. Nvidia lost nearly 6%, while Meta Platforms slipped almost 7%.

---- Despite the initial optimism in response to the 90-day reprieve, many on the Street think the market is not yet out of the woods. Even with the delay in some tariffs, the hike on China duties puts the effective tariff rate at a historic high, according to Morgan Stanley.

“Delays help, but do not reduce uncertainty,” Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. economist, wrote in a Thursday note.

Stock market news for April 10, 2025

EU pauses tariff retaliation for 90 days to match Trump move, holding out hope for talks

10 April 2025

The European Union’s executive commission said Thursday it will put retaliation measures on hold for 90 days to match President Donald Trump’s pause on his sweeping new tariffs on global trading partners and leave room for a negotiated solution.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that the commission, which handles trade for the bloc's 27 member countries, “took note of the announcement by President Trump.”

New tariffs on 20.9 billion euros ($23 billion) of US goods will be put on hold for 90 days because “we want to give negotiations a chance,” she said in a statement.

But she warned: “If negotiations are not satisfactory, our countermeasures will kick in.”

Trump imposed a 20% levy on goods from the EU as part of his onslaught of tariffs of 10% and upward against global trading partners but said Wednesday he will pause them for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate solutions to U.S. trade concerns.

Countries subject to the pause will face Trump's 10% baseline tariff.

Before Trump’s announcement, EU member countries voted to approve a set of retaliatory tariffs on $23 billion in goods in response to his 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum that took effect in March. The EU, the largest trading partner of the U.S., described them as “unjustified and damaging.”

The EU tariffs were set to go into effect in stages, some on April 15 and others on May 15 and Dec. 1. The EU commission didn’t immediately provide a list of the goods.

Members of the EU — the world’s largest trading bloc — have said they prefer a negotiated deal to resolve a trade war that damages the economies on both sides. The bloc’s top trade official has shuttled between Brussels and Washington for weeks trying to head off a conflict.

The targeted goods are a tiny fraction of the 1.6 trillion euros ($1.8 trillion) in U.S.-EU annual trade. Some 4.4 billion euros in goods and services crosses the Atlantic each day in what the European Commission calls “the most important commercial relationship in the world.”

The EU has targeted smaller lists of goods in hopes of exerting political pressure and avoiding economic damage from a wider escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs.

The EU is also working on a further set of countermeasures in response to Trump’s blanket 20% tariff on all European goods, now suspended. That could include measures aimed at U.S. tech companies and the services sector as well as trade in goods.

Still, von der Leyen said that Europe intends to diversify its trade partnerships.

She said that the EU will continue “engaging with countries that account for 87% of global trade and share our commitment to a free and open exchange of goods, services, and ideas,” and to lift barriers to commerce inside its own single market.

“Together, Europeans will emerge stronger from this crisis,” von der Leyen said.

EU pauses tariff retaliation for 90 days to match Trump move, holding out hope for talks

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose

Beijing Has Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Tariff Fight

Adam S. Posen  April 9, 2025

When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,” U.S. President Donald Trump famously tweeted in 2018, “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” This week, when the Trump administration imposed tariffs of more than 100 percent on U.S. imports from China, setting off a new and even more dangerous trade war, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a similar justification: “I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they’re playing with a pair of twos. What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them.”

In short, the Trump administration believes it has what game theorists call escalation dominance over China and any other economy with which it has a bilateral trade deficit. Escalation dominance, in the words of a report by the RAND Corporation, means that “a combatant has the ability to escalate a conflict in ways that will be disadvantageous or costly to the adversary while the adversary cannot do the same in return.” If the administration’s logic is correct, then China, Canada, and any other country that retaliates against U.S. tariffs is indeed playing a losing hand.

But this logic is wrong: it is China that has escalation dominance in this trade war. The United States gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced any time soon or made at home at anything less than prohibitive cost. Reducing such dependence on China may be a reason for action, but fighting the current war before doing so is a recipe for almost certain defeat, at enormous cost. Or to put it in Bessent’s terms: Washington, not Beijing, is betting all in on a losing hand.

More

Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose: Beijing Has Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Tariff Fight

Finally, in AI news. Don’t worry, AI will get much better at fooling the courts.

AI-generated attorney outrages judge who scolds man over courtroom fake: ‘not a real person’

A New York man found himself in hot water after he used an AI-avatar to argue his case in front of a panel of judges

Published April 9, 2025 10:57am EDT

An artificial intelligence-generated avatar was the source of contempt inside a New York courtroom after judges quickly realized the attorney arguing a case in front of them was not real. 

The scene unfolded as Jerome Dewald, a plaintiff in an employment dispute, approached the stand of the New York State Supreme Court Appellate Division's First Judicial Department on March 26. 

"The appellant has submitted a video for his argument," Justice Sallie Manzanet-Daniels said. "We will hear that video now." 

The screen powered on, displaying a handsome young man wearing a button-down shirt, seemingly sitting in a home office. 

"May it please the court, I come here today a humble pro se before a panel of five distinguished justices," the man said.  Suddenly, Manzanet-Daniels interrupted the video and questioned the authenticity of the apparent attorney. 

"Hold on," Manzanet-Daniels said. "Is that counsel for the case?" 

Dewald confirmed the man was, in fact, his representative, and told the judges, "I generated that. That’s not a real person."  The fallout was immediate as the judge clearly expressed her disapproval of Dewald’s choice to present an AI-generated video

"It would have been nice to know that when you made your application," Manzanet-Daniels said. "You did not tell me that, sir."

Dewald reportedly submitted a letter apologizing to the court, explaining he did not have a lawyer representing him in the case and had not intended any harm. 

"The court was really upset about it," Dewald told The Associated Press. "They chewed me up pretty good." 

Dewald reportedly applied for permission from the court to play a prerecorded video and initially planned to use an avatar that resembled himself, but opted for a program created by a San Francisco tech company. 

The snafu was not the first time artificial intelligence has raised eyebrows in court. 

Last year, two New York lawyers were each fined $5,000 by a federal judge after they used ChatGPT to conduct legal research, leading to them citing a fictitious case. 

Additional fake rulings were cited in legal papers filed by lawyers for Michael Cohen, a formal personal attorney for President Donald Trump. Cohen took responsibility for the incident, claiming he was unaware the AI-tool his firm was using was capable of "hallucinations." 

Dewald did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment.  

AI-generated lawyer enrages judges in New York courtroom as man argues case | Fox News

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Recession is a 'likely' outcome of tariffs chaos, says JPMorgan CEO

9 April 2025

The CEO of JPMorgan Chase has said Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs are "likely" to spark a recession.

Jamie Dimon is one of the most prominent voices in corporate America and has regularly been consulted by administrations during times of crisis.

A recession is when there are at least six months of economic contraction in gross domestic product (GDP), the total value of goods and services produced over a specific period.

Appearing on US channel Fox Business, Mr Dimon said: "I think probably [a recession is] a likely outcome."

"When you see a 2000-point decline [in the Dow Jones Industrial Average], it sort of feeds on itself, doesn't it," he continued.

Offering advice for the Trump administration, Mr Dimon called for the US government to make fast progress on trade agreements with other countries.

"Take a deep breath, negotiate some trade deals. That's the best thing they can do," he said. "I'm taking a calm view. But I think it could get worse if we don't make some progress here."

JPMorgan has "lost a couple of bond deals already" as clients overseas have said they would rather do business with local banks, the CEO added.

More

Recession is a 'likely' outcome of tariffs chaos, says JPMorgan CEO

'The Economist' editor unpacks the 'biggest trade policy shock' of Trump's tariffs

April 9, 2025 2:24 PM ET

President Trump's sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs have upended the global economy, sending stock markets into turmoil.

"This is, without a doubt, the biggest trade policy shock, I think, in history," Zanny Minton Beddoes, the editor-in-chief of The Economist, says.

Trump last week ordered a minimum 10% tax on nearly everything the U.S. buys from other countries. He's also ordered much higher levies on things the country buys from China, Japan and the European Union. However, a lot of those tariffs are in flux, because almost each day the president has either increased some tariffs or paused others.

"Presidents from Reagan to President Biden have increased tariffs on individual goods or individual sectors, but nothing like this. So this is off the charts in terms of scale, ... speed and uncertainty," says Minton Beddoes, who is a former economist for the International Monetary Fund.

While the motivation behind the tariffs remains unclear, she says that the Trump administration could be seeking to "radically remake the rules of global security, geopolitics, economics."

Minton Beddoes says the president seems to believe that the U.S. is getting a bad deal in the global economy, and that the tariffs will be used as a tool to renegotiate trade agreements: "It might be exactly what President Trump loves. Lots of people coming, knocking on his door, fawning, hoping for a good deal. This is The Art of the Deal on steroids," she says.

But, Minton Beddoes adds, the economic turmoil caused by the tariffs creates "a lot uncertainty, and a lot pain for consumers because tariffs are taxes on consumers. The people who pay this in the end, the cost of the tariffs, are people who pay more for the things that they buy."

"I think we've crossed some kind of a Rubicon in the last week or so, and we're not going to go back to the world as it was before," she says. "People, I think, are increasingly looking at the U.S. not as the shining city on the hill, a place which we all aspired to and certainly held in very high regard, but increasingly, it's a sort of bullying, swaggering, selfish, transactional country."

More

Editor of 'The Economist' explains Trump's tariffs : NPR

Goldman’s Gold $4,500 Forecast ARE conservative

Over 70% of World is Dumping US Treasuries and Buying Gold. Get in Front of This Once in a LifeTime Stampede

The Silver Academy

 Apr 11

Goldman Sachs has recently revised its gold price forecast for 2025, citing a range of structural and geopolitical factors driving demand. The investment bank raised its year-end target to $3,300 per ounce, with an upper boundary of $3,520 per ounce. Additionally, it introduced a tail-risk scenario that could see gold prices spike as high as $4,500 per ounce. This upward revision reflects a combination of factors including central bank purchases, speculative positioning, and emerging demand from China's insurance sector.

One key driver is the sustained buying by central banks, which Goldman identifies as a permanent shift in reserve management behavior following geopolitical tensions such as the freezing of Russian assets in 2022. Central banks in emerging markets, particularly China, are diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings. Goldman now estimates monthly central bank purchases to average 70 tonnes, up from its previous forecast of 50 tonnes. This trend underscores gold's appeal as a secure asset that cannot be frozen or confiscated when held domestically.

Another significant factor is China's recent policy allowing insurers to invest up to 1% of their assets under management in gold, potentially translating into demand for approximately 280 tonnes. While this demand has yet to materialize fully, Goldman expects it to emerge during price corrections, providing stability to the market. The structure of China's gold market—regulated by import quotas and influenced by local inventory levels—will determine how this demand plays out.

More

thesilverindustry@substack.com

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.


Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

HydroGraph’s Graphene Delivers Breakthrough in Polyurethane Coating Durability

 Apr. 9, 2025, 07:30 AM

TORONTO, April 09, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) --  HydroGraph Clean Power Inc. (CSE: HG) (OTCQB: HGRAF) (FRA: M98) (“HydroGraph” or the “Company”), a sustainable commercial manufacturer of pristine graphene, has announced new testing results demonstrating the performance benefits of its Fractal Graphene™ (FGA-1) as an additive in polyurethane (PU) coatings. Conducted at the Graphene Engineering Innovation Centre (GEIC) in Manchester, England, the study validates how HydroGraph’s graphene improves mechanical durability, UV resistance, and anti-corrosion properties – key factors in extending the lifespan of protective coatings used in harsh environments.

Industrial coatings, a $93B global market in 2024, face significant challenges, including early degradation due to corrosion, UV exposure, and mechanical wear. These issues lead to costly maintenance cycles, particularly in industries like offshore energy, where recoating platforms every 5-7 years can exceed $5 million per installation. With corrosion-related costs estimated at $2.5 trillion annually, the need for more resilient and sustainable coatings has never been greater.

“By incorporating our Fractal Graphene™ into commercial coatings, we are enabling a step-change in performance,” said Kjirstin Breure, CEO, HydroGraph. “These results confirm that even at ultra-low dosages, our graphene improves coatings’ durability, reducing maintenance needs and offering a compelling value proposition for industries requiring long-lasting protection.”

Unlocking New Performance Levels

HydroGraph’s graphene was tested in commercial polyurethane topcoats – with graphene loading levels of 0% (control), 0.05%, 0.1%, and 0.5%. The coatings were evaluated across key performance metrics:

  • Abrasion Resistance – Graphene-enhanced coatings outperformed control samples, with the Sigmadur 550 system (0.5% graphene) surviving 1,000 abrasion cycles without failure.
  • Scratch Resistance – 0.5% graphene loading improved scratch resistance by 13% in the Sigmadur system.
  • Corrosion Resistance – Graphene-modified coatings showed reduced micro-blistering, improving long-term protection in corrosive environments.
  • UV Stability – FGA-1 at 0.1% loading retained 77% of its gloss after 1,000 hours of UVA exposure, compared to 59% for control samples.

These findings highlight HydroGraph’s ability to simultaneously enhance multiple protective properties of polyurethane coatings, offering a solution to key industry challenges without compromising environmental compliance.

More

HydroGraph’s Graphene Delivers Breakthrough in Polyurethane Coating Durability | Markets Insider

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and how many more “victories” will President Trump’s tariffs team create. Shame about all those stock and commodity whipsaw losses though. Have a great weekend everyone.

On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

H. L. Mencken

No comments:

Post a Comment