Monday, 28 April 2025

Stocks, The Trump Top? Will The US Economy Freeze Up? Tourism?

Baltic Dry Index. 1373 +20        Brent Crude 67.08

Spot Gold 3296               US 2 Year Yield 3.74 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 36.780 trillion!!!

Term limits would cure both senility and seniority- both terrible legislative diseases.

Harry S. Truman

Earnest Hemmingway wrote “"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."

In today’s Trump tariff wars, its equivalent is, how did the US and global economy seize up?  Gradually and then suddenly.

Prepare for “suddenly” from about mid-May onwards. Enjoy “gradually” while it lasts.

Asia-Pacific markets muted after China vows targeted measures to support industries

Updated Mon, Apr 28 2025 12:14 AM EDT

Asia-Pacific markets were muted Monday as investors assessed China’s promises to support domestic businesses as well as developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries in the region.

Over the weekend, China’s finance minister Lan Fo’an said that the Asian powerhouse will “adopt more proactive macroeconomic policies to promote the realization of the expected growth target for the whole year and continue to bring stability and momentum to the global economy,” according to a Google translation of a statement posted on the ministry’s website.

Chinese authorities are slated to hold a press conference later in the day.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index were nearly flat in choppy trade.

Over in Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.37% while the broader Topix index advanced 0.9%.

In South Korea, the Kospi index eked out a 0.13% gain while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.04%.

India’s benchmark Nifty 50 moved up 0.74% in early trade while the broader BSE Sensex increased 0.34%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.65%.

Investors will also be keeping tabs on developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries in the region, after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that another pause to his “reciprocal tariffs” was unlikely, according to Bloomberg reports.

U.S. futures edged down ahead of a heavy earnings week, even as all three major benchmarks rose and notched their second positive week out of three.

The broad-based S&P 500 ended last Friday’s session 0.74% higher at 5,525.21, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.26% to end at 17,282.94. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, but managed to edge up marginally by 0.05%, or 20 points to close at 40,113.50.

Asia markets live: Stocks muted

Chinese factories are stopping production and looking for new markets as U.S. tariffs bite

Published Sun, Apr 27 2025 9:13 PM EDT

BEIJING — Chinese manufacturers are pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of U.S. tariffs sets in, according to companies and analysts.

The lost orders are also hitting jobs.

“I know several factories that have told half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their production,” said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting firm Tidalwave Solutions. He said factories making toys, sporting goods and low-cost Dollar Store-type goods are the most affected right now.

“While not large-scale yet, it is happening in the key [export] hubs of Yiwu and Dongguan and there is concern that it will grow,” Johnson said. “There is a hope that tariffs will be lowered so orders can resume, but in the meantime companies are furloughing employees and idling some production.”

Around 10 million to 20 million workers in China are involved with U.S.-bound export businesses, according to Goldman Sachs estimates. The official number of workers in China’s cities last year was 473.45 million.

Over a series of swift announcements this month, the U.S. added more than 100% in tariffs to Chinese goods, to which China retaliated with reciprocal duties. While U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday asserted trade talks with Beijing were underway, the Chinese side has denied any negotiations are ongoing.

The impact of the recent doubling in tariffs is “way bigger” than that of the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ash Monga, founder and CEO of Guangzhou-based Imex Sourcing Services, a supply chain management company. He noted that for small businesses with only several million dollars in resources, the sudden increase in tariffs might be unbearable and could put them out of business.

He said there’s so much demand from clients and other importers of Chinese products that he’s launching a new “Tariff Help” website on Friday to help small business find suppliers based outside China.

More

Chinese factories stop production, eye new markets as U.S. tariffs hit

Trump has two weeks to save America from empty shelves

As imports from China dwindle, US retailers face a difficult choice: pay the tariffs or suffer shortages

25 April 2025 6:00am BST

Donald Trump has kept the world on edge with a trade policy that seems to change by the day.

So far, American consumers have been shielded from much of the impact. But as the world of international shipping adjusts to his policies, the president is facing a potential reckoning.

With the US-China trade war starting to gum up container traffic between the world’s two biggest economies, freight companies are warning of plunging bookings and a surge in “blank sailings” – where ports are skipped or voyages are called off altogether.

Earlier this week, America’s most powerful retail executives trooped into the White House to deliver a blunt prognosis: tariffs on Chinese goods risked causing “empty shelves” in two weeks without a change of course.

The three companies who attended the meeting – Walmart, Target and Home Depot – are among the most exposed to the president’s policies, which include tariffs of up to 145pc on Chinese goods and higher port fees for Chinese-made vessels.

Walmart sources roughly 60pc of its imports from China, including clothing, electronics and toys, according to Reuters’ research, while around 50pc of Target’s suppliers are also based there.

Many retailers and manufacturers will have a “buffer” of stock kept in warehouses and other storage facilities that will have initially allowed them to weather any disruptions.

But these can only last so long, usually a matter of weeks. And after that point, retailers will face a choice: pay the tariffs and either swallow the extra cost or pass them on to customers; or stop buying goods from China and accept shortages on shelves.

Sailing into trouble

There are signs that many American companies are now responding by cancelling orders, at least temporarily.

It takes about two to three weeks for vessels from the east coast of China to make their way to the west coast of America.

According to data published by the Port of Los Angeles, which handles large amounts of goods shipped from Chinese ports including Shanghai, container traffic was 56pc higher this week than a year earlier, likely reflecting a flood of orders that were placed just before Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement on April 2.

But next week traffic is expected to be 11pc lower, and then 33pc lower the week after.

The drop in predicted arrivals at Los Angeles follows reports from data provider Vizion of a “crash” in container bookings in April. For shipments from China to the US, bookings fell 64pc in the first week of the month compared to the previous week.

Analysts blamed the crash on importers who were cancelling shipments to “reassess costs, timelines, and broader trade strategy”.

This is leaving more container ships half-empty – and prompting more shipping companies to cancel voyages in a bid to reduce losses and stop fees plummeting.

More

Trump has two weeks to save America from empty shelves

Huge decline at L.A. port is a hit to truckers—and a stark warning of coming tariff damage

April 26, 2025

Logistics experts are warning that cargo volumes at U.S. ports are undergoing a precipitous drop. This trend is most apparent in Los Angeles, home to the nation’s busiest port, and one that is first to feel any drop-off from Asian shipping. The drop in container shipping is the latest sign the White House’s trade war is having a real effect on the U.S. economy, and one sizable group of workers is poised to feel the impact first: long-haul truckers.

On Thursday, the founder of a media firm that tracks shipping trends reported that daily volumes this week are equivalent to Thanksgiving and Christmas Day—the two slowest shipping days of the year. The founder, Craig Fuller, also warned truckers to avoid hauling shipments to Los Angeles since they would likely have to “deadhead” back home—the industry term for driving an empty load.

The drop-off coincides with the ongoing fallout from the global trade war launched by President Donald Trump, which imposed tariffs on countries around the world, and singled out China for a dramatic 145% levy. This has led to a resulting drop-off in orders for Chinese goods, though the effect on shipping is only hitting U.S. shores now.

This week, though, the effect is beginning to be felt at West Coast ports—and is soon going to become far more pronounced. Here is a chart from Port Optimizer, hosted by the Port of Los Angeles, that shows what is poised to happen to import volumes:

---- Those declining volumes will translate directly to even fewer loads for truckers at the Port of Los Angeles, but that is only the beginning of the ripple effects. In addition to a coinciding drop-off at other West Coast ports like Long Beach and Seattle, truckers in other cities—where vessels take longer to arrive from Asia—will see deliveries dry up.

On X, entrepreneur Molson Hart posted shipping route data to show that in the next two weeks, containers will stop arriving in Houston and Chicago, and that the same will happen in New York a week later:

Earlier this week, President Trump indicated that he was ready to scale back some of his tariffs. That may not be enough, however, to reassure skittish trading partners wary that the President’s tariff policy could shift again. Meanwhile, a near-term drop-off in container traffic is now a certainty, meaning that U.S. truckers may have to get used to driving fewer miles for the foreseeable future.

Huge decline at L.A. port is a hit to truckers—and a stark warning of coming tariff damage

American Consumers Serve Up Bleak Outlook on Economy

The University of Michigan’s closely watched sentiment index fell to its lowest levels ever among Democrats and independents

Updated April 25, 2025 1:40 pm ET

American households ended April feeling much worse about the economy than they did in March, according to a closely watched measure of consumer sentiment. 

The University of Michigan said Friday its final index of consumer sentiment for April was 52.2, down from 57 in March, a drop of 8% from the previous month. The index hit its lowest levels ever for Democrats and for independents. 

The reading was a slight improvement on a preliminary print of 50.8 earlier in the month. A separate index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future was down 32% since January. The survey said that was the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession.

Concerns about higher prices combined with a weaker labor market suggest “consumers have really reflected—ahead of financial markets—the fears of stagflation,” said KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk. “The Fed’s got to be nervous about the inflation expectations looking higher,” she added.

Respondents said they expect prices to surge 6.5% over the next year, up from expectations in March for a 5% increase. It was the highest reading since 1981, the survey said. Longer-run inflation expectations also rose compared with March.

The Michigan survey said people expect weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Slower consumer spending—or higher expectations for rising prices—can turn a gloomy mood into a real economic slowdown.

“Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. “Labor market expectations remained bleak,” she added. 

The survey ran from March 25 to April 21, a topsy-turvy month in which markets churned after President Trump announced sweeping tariffs, temporarily paused some of them, then implied that he would fire the Federal Reserve chair. (The survey ended before Trump said on Tuesday that he had “no intention” of firing the Fed chair.)

The Michigan survey is one of the first major economic gauges to examine the month of April. 

Other surveys and signs also suggest that American consumers and businesses are feeling rattled by the Trump administration’s stop-start moves on tariffs, as well as other disruptive measures like mass layoffs of federal employees. Sales of existing homes in March posted their biggest monthly decline in more than two years, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

More

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Falls to Its Lowest Level Ever Among Democrats - WSJ

Finally, so you really, really want to visit Trump’s USA. Travel to America, at your severe peril? A massive tourism bust gets underway.

The tourists whose dream American vacations were destroyed by Trump’s border crackdown

27 April 2025

Charlotte Pohl and Maria Lepère’s first night in Honolulu was not how they intended.

The jet-setting high school graduates from Rostock, Germany, had envisioned island-hopping across Hawaii before flying inland to California.

Instead, they woke up from their “fever dream” on a moldy mattress in a frigid, dilapidated cell, detained by authorities when they arrived at Honolulu airport and had attempted to go through U.S. customs.

Pohl and Lepère’s experience is one of several harrowing, high-profile accounts from tourists who have had their vacations derailed at the hands of border officials since Donald Trump's return to the White House in January.

Ever since the president promised to stage “the largest deportation operation in American history” earlier this year, international tourism to the U.S. has plummeted amid reports of detained tourists and travelers.

Total foreign visitors were down 12 percent year-on-year in March, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office, a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce. That drop marked one of the steepest declines on record outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Western European visitors experienced a 17 percent drop-off last month, spearheaded by fewer British and German visitors — 14 and 28 percent, respectively.

Here are some of the tourists that did try and visit — but instead had their American dreams dashed.

Charlotte Pohl, 19, and Maria Lepère, 18, from Germany

Pohl, 19, and Lepère, 18, were denied entry into the U.S. on March 18 despite holding the required documentation, including the electronic visa required by most visitors.

The teens said that they wanted to travel “spontaneously,” and subsequently hadn’t booked accommodation for the entirety of their five-week stint on the archipelago, Pohl told German newspaper Ostsee Zeitung.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection Assistant Commissioner Hilton Beckham countered this week that the tourists were “attempting to enter the U.S. under false pretenses,” and claimed they admitted they “intended to work” without the appropriate visas.

The travelers told the newspaper they were stripped and searched before being given prison garments to wear and locked in a double cell.

After three days detained, they returned to Rostock via Tokyo, Qatar, and Frankfurt am Main.

“We had already noticed a little bit of what was going on in the U.S. But at the time, we didn't think it was happening to Germans. That was perhaps very naive,” Lepère reflected.

For tourists like Pohl and Lepère, and others legally in the U.S. and subsequently removed, that so-called “privilege” was not afforded.

Rebecca Burke, 28, Wales

Welsh graphic artist Rebecca Burke was detained on February 26 after she embarked on “the trip of a lifetime” across North America.

The 28-year-old from Monmouthshire was reunited with her family this month after spending 19 days in a processing center after being denied entry at the border between the U.S. and Canada over a so-called visa mix-up.

Burke had been residing with host families in Portland, Oregon, whom she helped out with chores in exchange for her accomodation.

As she attempted to cross into Canada, border officials informed her that her living arrangements would mean she needed a work visa, not a tourist one.

She was sent back to the U.S. where American officials classed her as an illegal alien.

Burke was shackled and transported to an Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention center in Tacoma, Washington.

She was not allowed to fly home to the U.K. despite having the funds to pay for a plane ticket. Burke was detained while attempting to leave the U.S., not entering it.

As she was ushered to the plane before finally being flown back to Britain, her father told the BBC she had been taken in “leg chains, waist chains and handcuffs” like The Silence of the Lambs serial killer, “Hannibal Lecter.”

More

The tourists whose dream American vacations were destroyed by Trump’s border crackdown

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

US Recession Seems Likely, Nobel-Winning Economist Says

April 25, 2025

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman warns that President Donald Trump's unpredictable tariff policies—including imposing and pausing various tariffs as well as changing rates—make a U.S. recession seem "likely."

Newsweek has reached out to Krugman for further comment via email on Friday.

Why It Matters

President Donald Trump largely campaigned on economic and immigration policies, pledging to levy numerous tariffs and increase U.S. manufacturing, as well as cracking down on illegal immigration.

Trump's tariffs and shakeup of global trade has rattled global and domestic markets, with Wall Street tanking over the past month, marking the worst days for the U.S. stock markets since 2020. Markets later surged after Trump paused a broad set of retaliatory tariffs, but many businesses and consumers remain in limbo as the current economic policy remain uncertain.

Krugman's latest warning, which has been echoed by leading financial institutes, highlights the risk that policy volatility could tip the country into an economic downturn. Many economists, financial firms, Democrats, and some Republicans have warned that Trump's tariff policy would spark a recession, while the Trump administration has not ruled out the possibility, noting the transition period will be marked with some market "disruption."

What To Know

Krugman, who won the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 2008, said during an April 23 episode of a Goldman Sachs podcast that Trump's tariff policy, and the way it has been delivered, is introducing severe uncertainty into the business environment.

"There has been nothing like this," Krugman said, adding "the story keeps changing."

Krugman has been critical of Trump's policies in the past and warned ahead of the 2024 election that the Republican nominee's economic policies would cause "economic chaos."

The economist noted that what's ironic about his prediction of a likely recession is "this is not the tariff," as a "stable tariff rate would not cause a recession, but an unpredictable tariff rate that can change the next day is really a depressing effect on demand."

Krugman further noted "the secret sauce of the Trump tariffs is that they are extremely uncertain. Nobody knows what they will be. Nobody knows what comes next."

Trump has repeatedly announced, imposed, paused and reimposed a series of blanket, sectoral and retaliatory tariffs. Notably, just hours after sweeping, retaliatory tariffs went into effect on April 9, he paused the majority of them.

Krugman noted that these conditions are impacting business investment, consumers, and homebuilders, among others, which "is the reason why a recession seems likely."

He later noted that he doesn't expect the recession to be "severe," however he noted that "if consumer spending falls off a cliff, yeah, then it can become a severe recession."

Trump has urged Americans to "hang tough" amid market volatility and the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by other countries, including China.

What People Are Saying

Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates said during a recent NBC interview: "I think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession, and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't handled well."

"Such times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history, and history repeats over and over again," Dalio added. "If you take tariffs, if you take debt, and the rising power challenging an existing power, and those factors—those changes in the orders, the systems—are very, very disruptive. How that's handled could produce something that's much worse than a recession, or it can be handled well."

Economist Torsten Slok said in a Monday appearance on CNBC that there will "absolutely" be a recession in 2025 if tariffs "stay at these levels."

President Donald Trump said in an April Truth Social post: "THIS IS AN ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won't be easy, but the end result will be historic. We will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"

Vice President JD Vance said in an X post earlier in April: "There is a category of DC insider who wants to fight an actual war with China but also wants China to manufacture much of our critical supply. This is insane. President Trump wants peace, but also wants fair trade and more self-reliance for the American economy."

More

US Recession Seems Likely, Nobel-Winning Economist Says

Finally in other news, even the conservative UK press thinks Trump’s tariff wars has demeaned the United States.

Trump’s attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated

America has emerged from the trade war as an international laughing stock

26 April 2025 11:00am BST

It seems unlikely that President Donald Trump has read much Lenin, but had he done so he might have stumbled across the following observation: it takes organisers to make a revolution.

Characterised by screeching handbrake turns, made-up policy on the hoof and mixed-messaging on steroids, it’s been another week of chaos in Washington.

If anyone knows what on Earth it is that the US is trying to achieve on trade, and much else besides, then I’d like to hear from them, because having come to the US capital in the hope of garnering some insights, I’m none the wiser.

What’s now increasingly obvious, however, is that Trump is in ragged retreat; he’s compromising all over the shop, such that if the plan was to upend the established global order, one can almost definitely say that, beyond the rhetoric, it is already over.

Rank lack of professionalism and organisation has defined the endeavour all along, and now it’s coming apart at the seams. Sensing an administration on the run, no one is any longer hurrying to do a trade deal with the US. From Britain to Canada and beyond, getting the right deal rather than a quick one has become the new mantra.

Trump has in the meantime made himself – and the US – into an international laughing stock, never mind the damage that policy uncertainty is inflicting on the global economy. You’d be forgiven for thinking that chaos is itself the policy goal.

Repeatedly forced to row back on its demands and aspirations, the White House has been left looking back-footed and ridiculous.

Trump has to show a “win” of some sort, so no doubt something that might pass for one will eventually be plucked from melee, but it will be tokenistic stuff.

There have been two defining retreats in particular: first, the pause in “reciprocal” tariffs in the face of a potentially catastrophic market sell-off, and second, attempts to sack the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, likewise quickly ditched when markets ran for the hills.

More

Trump’s attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated

Covid-19 Corner

This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported.

Stellantis solid-state EV battery 'breakthrough' to bring more range and faster top-ups

Car making giant is teaming up with US specialist to demo advanced new cells next year

25 Apr 2025

Stellantis has announced plans to demonstrate solid-state batteries in 2026 after a successful ‘breakthrough’ validation of the technology. 

The parent company of major car brands such as VauxhallPeugeotCitroen and Fiat invested 75 million dollars (roughly £56m) in US-based solid-state battery specialist Factorial Energy back in 2021. Since then, the pair have worked towards a five-year goal of introducing solid-state batteries into electric vehicles.

“Reaching this level of performance reflects the strengths of our collaboration with Factorial,” said Ned Curic, Stellantis Chief Engineering and Technology Officer. “This breakthrough puts us at the forefront of the solid-state revolution. We continue working together to bring us closer to lighter, more efficient batteries that reduce costs for our customers.”

Unlike the lithium-ion batteries that conventional EVs currently use, solid-state batteries have a capacity for higher energy density – essentially resulting in more range and quicker charging speeds

Tesla’s latest 4680 battery technology, for example, has an energy density of 244Wh/kg; Stellantis’ solid-state demonstrator’s density stood at 375Wh/kg after completing 600 charging cycles. Stellantis claims a 15 to 90 per cent top-up will take 18 minutes.

The solid-state cells should also weigh less than comparable lithium-ion batteries and will also deliver a higher power output, with Stellantis noting their ability to support “greater performance demands in electric vehicles”. The battery can perform in temperatures ranging from -30 degrees to 45 degrees Celsius. 

While Stellantis says its latest validation “marks a significant step forward on the path to bringing next-generation electric vehicle (EV) batteries to market”, it is not committing to a date when we might see production-ready solid-state battery-powered vehicles. However, it does intend to build a demonstration fleet with Factorial next year for “assessment of performance in real-world driving conditions”.

While we’ll see road tests of solid-state battery vehicles in the next 18 months, Stellantis’ latest STLA platform (which was only introduced in 2023) isn’t expected to be compatible with the new technology.

Stellantis solid-state EV battery 'breakthrough' to bring more range and faster top-ups | Auto Express

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

No one should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.

Dwight D. Eisenhower


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