Baltic
Dry Index. 1373 +20
Brent Crude 67.08
Spot Gold 3296 US 2 Year Yield 3.74 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 36.780 trillion!!!
Term limits would cure both senility and seniority- both terrible legislative diseases.
Harry S. Truman
Earnest Hemmingway wrote “"How did you go bankrupt?" Bill asked. "Two ways," Mike said. "Gradually and then suddenly."
In today’s Trump tariff wars, its equivalent is, how did the US and global economy seize up? Gradually and then suddenly.
Prepare for “suddenly” from about mid-May
onwards. Enjoy “gradually” while it lasts.
Asia-Pacific markets muted after China vows
targeted measures to support industries
Updated Mon, Apr 28 2025 12:14 AM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets were muted Monday as
investors assessed China’s promises to support domestic businesses as well as
developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries in the
region.
Over the weekend, China’s finance minister
Lan Fo’an said that the Asian powerhouse will “adopt more proactive
macroeconomic policies to promote the realization of the expected growth target
for the whole year and continue to bring stability and momentum to the global
economy,” according to a Google translation of a statement
posted on the ministry’s website.
Chinese authorities are slated to hold a
press conference later in the day.
Mainland China’s CSI 300 index and Hong
Kong’s Hang Seng Index were
nearly flat in choppy trade.
Over in Japan, the benchmark Nikkei 225 added 0.37% while
the broader Topix index advanced 0.9%.
In South Korea, the Kospi index eked out a 0.13%
gain while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 1.04%.
India’s benchmark Nifty 50 moved up 0.74% in
early trade while the broader BSE Sensex increased 0.34%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.65%.
Investors will also be keeping tabs on
developments in trade negotiations between the U.S. and countries in the
region, after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that another pause to his “reciprocal tariffs” was unlikely,
according to Bloomberg reports.
U.S.
futures edged down ahead of a heavy earnings week, even as all three
major benchmarks rose
and notched their second positive week out of three.
The broad-based S&P 500 ended last
Friday’s session 0.74% higher at 5,525.21, while the Nasdaq Composite added 1.26%
to end at 17,282.94. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average lagged,
but managed to edge up marginally by 0.05%, or 20 points to close at
40,113.50.
Asia
markets live: Stocks muted
Chinese factories are stopping production and
looking for new markets as U.S. tariffs bite
Published Sun, Apr 27 2025 9:13 PM EDT
BEIJING — Chinese manufacturers are
pausing production and turning to new markets as the impact of U.S. tariffs
sets in, according to companies and analysts.
The lost orders are also hitting jobs.
“I know several factories that have told
half of their employees to go home for a few weeks and stopped most of their
production,” said Cameron Johnson, Shanghai-based senior partner at consulting
firm Tidalwave Solutions. He said factories making toys, sporting goods and
low-cost Dollar Store-type goods are the most affected right now.
“While not large-scale yet, it is
happening in the key [export] hubs of Yiwu and Dongguan and there is concern
that it will grow,” Johnson said. “There is a hope that tariffs will be lowered
so orders can resume, but in the meantime companies are furloughing employees
and idling some production.”
Around 10 million to 20 million workers in
China are involved with U.S.-bound export businesses, according to Goldman
Sachs estimates. The official number of workers in China’s cities last year was
473.45 million.
Over a series of swift announcements this
month, the U.S. added more than 100% in tariffs to Chinese goods, to which
China retaliated with reciprocal duties. While U.S. President Donald Trump
on Thursday asserted trade talks with Beijing were underway, the
Chinese side has denied any negotiations are ongoing.
The impact of the recent doubling in
tariffs is “way bigger” than that of the Covid-19 pandemic, said Ash Monga,
founder and CEO of Guangzhou-based Imex Sourcing Services, a supply chain
management company. He noted that for small businesses with only several
million dollars in resources, the sudden increase in tariffs might be
unbearable and could put them out of business.
He said there’s so much demand from
clients and other importers of Chinese products that he’s launching a new “Tariff Help” website on
Friday to help small business find suppliers based outside China.
More
Chinese
factories stop production, eye new markets as U.S. tariffs hit
Trump has two weeks to save America from empty
shelves
As imports from China dwindle, US
retailers face a difficult choice: pay the tariffs or suffer shortages
25 April 2025 6:00am BST
Donald Trump has kept the world on edge
with a trade policy that seems to change by the day.
So far, American consumers
have been shielded from
much of the impact. But as the world of international shipping adjusts to his
policies, the president is facing a potential reckoning.
With the US-China trade war starting to
gum up container traffic between the world’s two biggest economies, freight
companies are warning of plunging bookings and a surge in “blank sailings” –
where ports are skipped or voyages are called off altogether.
Earlier this week, America’s most powerful
retail executives trooped into the White House to deliver a blunt prognosis:
tariffs on Chinese goods risked causing “empty shelves” in two weeks without a
change of course.
The three companies who attended the
meeting – Walmart, Target and Home Depot – are among the most exposed to the
president’s policies, which include tariffs of up to 145pc on Chinese goods and
higher port fees for Chinese-made vessels.
Walmart sources roughly 60pc of its imports from
China, including clothing, electronics and toys, according to
Reuters’ research, while around 50pc of Target’s suppliers are also based
there.
Many retailers and manufacturers will have
a “buffer” of stock kept in warehouses and other storage facilities that will
have initially allowed them to weather any disruptions.
But these can only last so long, usually a
matter of weeks. And after that point, retailers will face a choice: pay the
tariffs and either swallow the extra cost or pass them on to customers; or stop
buying goods from China and accept shortages on shelves.
Sailing into trouble
There are signs that many American
companies are now responding by cancelling orders, at least temporarily.
It takes about two to three weeks for
vessels from the east coast of China to make their way to the west coast of
America.
According to data published by the Port of
Los Angeles, which handles large amounts of goods shipped from Chinese ports
including Shanghai, container traffic was 56pc higher this week than a year
earlier, likely reflecting a flood of orders that were placed just before
Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement on April 2.
But next week traffic is expected to be
11pc lower, and then 33pc lower the week after.
The drop in predicted arrivals at Los
Angeles follows reports from data provider Vizion of a “crash” in container
bookings in April. For shipments from China to the US, bookings fell 64pc in
the first week of the month compared to the previous week.
Analysts blamed the crash on importers who
were cancelling shipments to “reassess costs, timelines, and broader trade
strategy”.
This is leaving more container ships
half-empty – and prompting more shipping companies to cancel voyages in a bid
to reduce losses and stop fees plummeting.
More
Trump has two
weeks to save America from empty shelves
Huge decline at L.A. port is a hit to truckers—and
a stark warning of coming tariff damage
April 26, 2025
Logistics experts are warning that cargo
volumes at U.S. ports are undergoing a precipitous drop. This trend is most
apparent in Los Angeles, home to the nation’s busiest port, and one that is
first to feel any drop-off from Asian shipping. The drop in container shipping
is the latest sign the White House’s trade war is having a real effect on the
U.S. economy, and one sizable group of workers is poised to feel the impact
first: long-haul truckers.
On Thursday, the founder of a media firm
that tracks shipping trends reported that daily volumes this week are
equivalent to Thanksgiving and Christmas Day—the two slowest shipping days of
the year. The founder, Craig Fuller, also warned truckers to avoid hauling
shipments to Los Angeles since they would likely have to “deadhead” back
home—the industry term for driving an empty load.
The drop-off coincides with the ongoing
fallout from the global trade war launched by President Donald Trump, which
imposed tariffs on countries around the world, and singled out
China for a dramatic 145% levy. This has led to a resulting drop-off in orders
for Chinese goods, though the effect on shipping is only hitting U.S. shores
now.
This week, though, the effect is beginning
to be felt at West Coast ports—and is soon going to become far more pronounced.
Here is a chart from Port Optimizer, hosted by the Port of Los Angeles, that
shows what is poised to happen to import volumes:
---- Those declining volumes will translate
directly to even fewer loads for truckers at the Port of Los Angeles, but that
is only the beginning of the ripple effects. In addition to a coinciding
drop-off at other West Coast ports like Long Beach and Seattle, truckers in
other cities—where vessels take longer to arrive from Asia—will see deliveries
dry up.
On X, entrepreneur
Molson Hart posted shipping route data to show that in the next two weeks,
containers will stop arriving in Houston and Chicago, and that the same will
happen in New York a week later:
Earlier this week, President Trump
indicated that he was ready to scale back some of his tariffs. That may not be
enough, however, to reassure skittish trading partners wary that the
President’s tariff policy could shift again. Meanwhile, a near-term drop-off in
container traffic is now a certainty, meaning that U.S. truckers may have to
get used to driving fewer miles for the foreseeable future.
Huge
decline at L.A. port is a hit to truckers—and a stark warning of coming tariff
damage
American Consumers Serve Up Bleak Outlook on
Economy
The University of Michigan’s closely
watched sentiment index fell to its lowest levels ever among Democrats and independents
Updated April 25, 2025 1:40
pm ET
American households ended April feeling
much worse about the economy than they did in March, according to a closely
watched measure of consumer sentiment.
The University of Michigan said Friday its
final index of consumer sentiment for April was 52.2, down from 57 in March, a
drop of 8% from the previous month. The index hit its lowest levels ever for
Democrats and for independents.
The reading was a slight improvement
on a
preliminary print of 50.8 earlier in the month. A separate index measuring
consumers’ expectations for the future was down 32% since January. The survey
said that was the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990
recession.
Concerns about higher prices combined with
a weaker labor market suggest “consumers have really reflected—ahead of
financial markets—the fears of stagflation,” said KPMG’s chief
economist Diane Swonk. “The Fed’s got to be nervous about the inflation
expectations looking higher,” she added.
Respondents said they expect prices to
surge 6.5% over the next year, up from expectations in March for a 5% increase.
It was the highest reading since 1981, the survey said. Longer-run inflation
expectations also rose compared with March.
The Michigan survey said people expect
weaker income growth for themselves in the year ahead. Slower consumer
spending—or higher expectations for rising prices—can turn a gloomy mood into a
real economic slowdown.
“Consumers perceived risks to multiple
aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade
policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead,”
said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director. “Labor market expectations
remained bleak,” she added.
The survey ran from March 25 to April 21,
a topsy-turvy month in which markets churned after President Trump announced
sweeping tariffs, temporarily paused some of them, then implied that he would
fire the Federal Reserve chair. (The survey ended before Trump said
on Tuesday that
he had “no intention” of firing the Fed chair.)
The Michigan survey is one of the first
major economic gauges to examine the month of April.
Other surveys and signs also suggest that
American consumers and businesses are
feeling rattled by
the Trump administration’s stop-start moves on tariffs, as well as other
disruptive measures like mass layoffs of federal employees. Sales of existing
homes in March posted their biggest
monthly decline in
more than two years, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.
More
U.S. Consumer
Sentiment Falls to Its Lowest Level Ever Among Democrats - WSJ
Finally, so you really, really want to visit
Trump’s USA. Travel to America, at your severe peril? A massive tourism bust
gets underway.
The tourists whose dream American vacations were
destroyed by Trump’s border crackdown
27 April 2025
Charlotte Pohl and Maria Lepère’s first
night in Honolulu was
not how they intended.
The jet-setting high school graduates from
Rostock, Germany, had envisioned island-hopping across Hawaii before flying
inland to California.
Instead, they woke up from their “fever
dream” on a moldy mattress in a frigid, dilapidated cell, detained by
authorities when they arrived at Honolulu airport and had attempted to go
through U.S. customs.
Pohl and Lepère’s experience is one of
several harrowing, high-profile
accounts from
tourists who have had their vacations derailed at the hands of border officials
since Donald
Trump's
return to the White House in January.
Ever since the
president promised
to stage “the largest deportation operation in
American history” earlier this year, international tourism to the U.S.
has plummeted amid reports of detained tourists and travelers.
Total foreign visitors were down 12
percent year-on-year in March, according to the National Travel and Tourism
Office, a division of the U.S. Department of Commerce. That drop marked one of
the steepest declines on record outside of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Western European visitors experienced a 17
percent drop-off last month, spearheaded by fewer British and German visitors —
14 and 28 percent, respectively.
Here are some of the tourists that did try
and visit — but instead had their American dreams dashed.
Charlotte Pohl, 19, and Maria Lepère, 18,
from Germany
Pohl, 19, and Lepère, 18, were denied
entry into the U.S. on March 18 despite holding the required documentation,
including the electronic visa required by most visitors.
The teens said that they wanted to travel
“spontaneously,” and subsequently hadn’t booked accommodation for the entirety
of their five-week stint on the archipelago, Pohl told German newspaper Ostsee Zeitung.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection
Assistant Commissioner Hilton Beckham countered this week that the tourists
were “attempting to enter the U.S. under false pretenses,” and claimed they
admitted they “intended to work” without the appropriate visas.
The travelers told the newspaper they were
stripped and searched before being given prison garments to wear and locked in
a double cell.
After three days detained, they returned
to Rostock via Tokyo, Qatar, and Frankfurt am Main.
“We had already noticed a little bit of
what was going on in the U.S. But at the time, we didn't think it was happening
to Germans. That was perhaps very naive,” Lepère reflected.
For tourists like Pohl and Lepère, and
others legally
in the U.S. and subsequently removed, that so-called “privilege” was not
afforded.
Rebecca Burke, 28, Wales
Welsh graphic artist Rebecca Burke was
detained on February 26 after she embarked on “the trip of a lifetime” across
North America.
The 28-year-old from Monmouthshire was
reunited with her family this month after spending 19 days in a processing
center after being denied entry at the border between the U.S. and Canada over
a so-called visa mix-up.
Burke had been residing with host families
in Portland, Oregon, whom she helped out with chores in exchange for her
accomodation.
As she attempted to cross into Canada,
border officials informed her that her living arrangements would mean she
needed a work visa, not a tourist one.
She was sent back to the U.S. where
American officials classed her as an illegal alien.
Burke was shackled and transported to
an Immigration
and Customs Enforcement detention center in Tacoma, Washington.
She was not allowed to fly home to the
U.K. despite having the funds to pay for a plane ticket. Burke was detained
while attempting to leave the U.S., not entering it.
As she was ushered to the plane before
finally being flown back to Britain, her father told the BBC she had been taken
in “leg chains, waist chains and handcuffs” like The Silence
of the Lambs serial killer, “Hannibal Lecter.”
More
The tourists whose
dream American vacations were destroyed by Trump’s border crackdown
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US
Recession Seems Likely, Nobel-Winning Economist Says
April
25, 2025
Nobel
Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman warns that President Donald Trump's unpredictable
tariff policies—including imposing and pausing various tariffs as well as
changing rates—make a U.S. recession seem "likely."
Newsweek has reached out to
Krugman for further comment via email on Friday.
Why
It Matters
President
Donald Trump largely campaigned on economic and immigration policies, pledging
to levy numerous tariffs and increase U.S. manufacturing, as well as cracking
down on illegal immigration.
Trump's
tariffs and shakeup of global trade has rattled global and domestic markets,
with Wall Street tanking over the past month, marking
the worst days for the U.S. stock markets since 2020. Markets later
surged after Trump paused a broad set of retaliatory tariffs, but many
businesses and consumers remain in limbo as the current economic policy remain
uncertain.
Krugman's
latest warning, which has been echoed by leading financial institutes,
highlights the risk that policy volatility could tip the country into an
economic downturn. Many economists, financial firms, Democrats, and some Republicans have warned
that Trump's tariff policy would spark a recession, while the Trump
administration has not ruled out the possibility, noting the transition period
will be marked with some market "disruption."
What
To Know
Krugman,
who won the Nobel Prize in economic sciences in 2008, said during an April 23
episode of a Goldman Sachs podcast that Trump's tariff policy, and the way it
has been delivered, is introducing severe uncertainty into the business
environment.
"There
has been nothing like this," Krugman said, adding "the story keeps
changing."
Krugman
has been critical of Trump's policies in the past and warned ahead of the 2024
election that the Republican nominee's
economic policies would cause "economic chaos."
The
economist noted that what's ironic about his prediction of a likely recession
is "this is not the tariff," as a "stable tariff rate would not
cause a recession, but an unpredictable tariff rate that can change the next
day is really a depressing effect on demand."
Krugman
further noted "the secret sauce of the Trump tariffs is that they are
extremely uncertain. Nobody knows what they will be. Nobody knows what comes
next."
Trump
has repeatedly announced, imposed, paused and reimposed a series of blanket,
sectoral and retaliatory tariffs. Notably, just hours after sweeping,
retaliatory tariffs went into effect on April 9, he paused the majority of
them.
Krugman
noted that these conditions are impacting business investment, consumers, and
homebuilders, among others, which "is the reason why a recession seems
likely."
He
later noted that he doesn't expect the recession to be "severe,"
however he noted that "if consumer spending falls off a cliff, yeah, then
it can become a severe recession."
Trump
has urged Americans to "hang tough" amid market volatility and the
announcement of reciprocal tariffs by other countries, including China.
What
People Are Saying
Ray
Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates said during a recent NBC
interview: "I
think that right now we are at a decision-making point and very close to a
recession, and I'm worried about something worse than a recession if this isn't
handled well."
"Such
times are very much like the 1930s. I've studied history, and history repeats
over and over again," Dalio added. "If you take tariffs, if you take
debt, and the rising power challenging an existing power, and those
factors—those changes in the orders, the systems—are very, very disruptive. How
that's handled could produce something that's much worse than a recession, or
it can be handled well."
Economist
Torsten Slok said in a Monday appearance on CNBC that there will
"absolutely" be a recession in 2025 if tariffs "stay at these
levels."
President
Donald Trump said in an April Truth Social post: "THIS IS AN
ECONOMIC REVOLUTION, AND WE WILL WIN. HANG TOUGH, it won't be easy, but the end
result will be historic. We will, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!!!"
Vice
President JD Vance said in an X post earlier in April: "There is a
category of DC insider who wants to fight an actual war with China but also
wants China to manufacture much of our critical supply. This is insane.
President Trump wants peace, but also wants fair trade and more self-reliance
for the American economy."
More
US Recession Seems
Likely, Nobel-Winning Economist Says
Finally
in other news, even the conservative UK press thinks Trump’s tariff wars has demeaned
the United States.
Trump’s
attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated
America
has emerged from the trade war as an international laughing stock
26
April 2025 11:00am BST
It
seems unlikely that President Donald Trump has read much Lenin, but had he done
so he might have stumbled across the following observation: it takes organisers
to make a revolution.
Characterised
by screeching handbrake turns, made-up policy on the hoof and mixed-messaging
on steroids, it’s been another week of chaos in Washington.
If
anyone knows what on Earth it is that the US is trying to achieve on trade, and
much else besides, then I’d like to hear from them, because having come to the
US capital in the hope of garnering some insights, I’m none the wiser.
What’s
now increasingly obvious, however, is that Trump is in ragged
retreat;
he’s compromising all over the shop, such that if the plan was to upend the
established global order, one can almost definitely say that, beyond the
rhetoric, it is already over.
Rank
lack of professionalism and organisation has defined the endeavour all along,
and now it’s coming apart at the seams. Sensing an administration on the run,
no one is any longer hurrying to do a trade deal with the US. From Britain to
Canada and beyond, getting the right deal rather than a quick one has become
the new mantra.
Trump
has in the meantime made himself – and the US – into an international laughing
stock, never mind the damage that policy uncertainty is inflicting on the
global economy. You’d be forgiven for thinking that chaos is itself the policy
goal.
Repeatedly
forced to row back on its demands and aspirations, the White House has been
left looking back-footed and ridiculous.
Trump
has to show a “win” of some sort, so no doubt something that might pass for one
will eventually be plucked from melee, but it will be tokenistic stuff.
There
have been two defining retreats in particular: first, the pause in “reciprocal”
tariffs in the face of a potentially catastrophic market sell-off, and
second, attempts to sack
the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, likewise quickly
ditched when markets ran for the hills.
More
Trump’s attempt to upend the global order has already been defeated
Covid-19
Corner
This section will continue only occasionally when something of interest occurs.
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Stellantis solid-state EV battery 'breakthrough' to bring more
range and faster top-ups
Car making giant is teaming up with US
specialist to demo advanced new cells next year
25 Apr 2025
Stellantis has announced plans to
demonstrate solid-state batteries in 2026 after
a successful ‘breakthrough’ validation of the technology.
The parent company of major car brands such
as Vauxhall, Peugeot, Citroen and Fiat invested 75 million dollars (roughly £56m)
in US-based solid-state battery specialist Factorial Energy back in 2021. Since
then, the pair have worked towards a five-year goal of introducing
solid-state batteries into electric vehicles.
“Reaching this level of performance
reflects the strengths of our collaboration with Factorial,” said Ned Curic,
Stellantis Chief Engineering and Technology Officer. “This breakthrough puts us
at the forefront of the solid-state revolution. We continue working together to
bring us closer to lighter, more efficient batteries that reduce costs for our
customers.”
Unlike the lithium-ion batteries that
conventional EVs currently use, solid-state batteries have a capacity for
higher energy density – essentially resulting in more range and quicker charging speeds.
Tesla’s latest 4680 battery technology, for
example, has an energy density of 244Wh/kg; Stellantis’ solid-state
demonstrator’s density stood at 375Wh/kg after completing 600 charging cycles.
Stellantis claims a 15 to 90 per cent top-up will take 18 minutes.
The solid-state cells should also weigh
less than comparable lithium-ion batteries and will also deliver a higher power
output, with Stellantis noting their ability to support “greater
performance demands in electric vehicles”. The battery can perform in
temperatures ranging from -30 degrees to 45 degrees Celsius.
While Stellantis says its latest validation
“marks a significant step forward on the path to bringing next-generation
electric vehicle (EV) batteries to market”, it is not committing to a date when
we might see production-ready solid-state battery-powered vehicles. However, it
does intend to build a demonstration fleet with Factorial next year for
“assessment of performance in real-world driving conditions”.
While we’ll see road tests of solid-state
battery vehicles in the next 18 months, Stellantis’ latest STLA platform (which
was only introduced in 2023) isn’t expected to be compatible with the new
technology.
Stellantis solid-state EV battery 'breakthrough' to bring more range and
faster top-ups | Auto Express
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
No one
should ever sit in this office over 70 years old, and that I know.
Dwight
D. Eisenhower
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