Baltic Dry Index. 1762 -35 Brent Crude 79.70
Spot Gold 2419 US 2 Year Yield 4.35 -0.01
Give me a place to stand, and a lever long enough, and I will move the world.
Archimedes.
It is the last trading day of the month, normally a day to dress up stocks and stock indexes for the all important money manager bonuses.
But today is off to an unpromising start. The BOJ has raised its key interest rate.
Later today, the US central bank is expected to put off any interest rate cut until September.
In the real global economy, far divorced from life in the stock casinos, yet more signs of that long forecast, if long delayed, next recession arriving.
How’s a poor stock hustler supposed to make an “honest” living if the central banksters allow recessions?
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rises after its central bank
raises benchmark rate amid broader gains in Asia markets
Published Tue, Jul 30 20247:40 PM EDT
Asia-Pacific markets rose Wednesday as investors assessed China’s business activity data, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 reversing course to log gains after the country’s central bank raised benchmark interest rates to around 0.25%.
Economists polled by Reuters were expecting the bank to hold rates at the current 0% to 0.1% range, though other analysts had expected a hike. This marks the first time since December 2008 that Japan’s benchmark interest rate stands higher that 0.1%.
China’s factory activity contracted at a slightly faster pace in July, with the official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index standing at 49.4, down from 49.5 in June. This figure, however, beat forecasts from a Reuters poll, which expected the PMI to come in at 49.3.
Australia’s second-quarter inflation rose 1% compared to the last quarter, while inflation climbed 3.8% year on year.
June’s inflation rate also came in at 3.8%, in line with expectations and decelerating from the 4% seen in May.
A weaker inflation reading could open the possibility of rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia, or at least discourage it from raising rates, a course of action that was discussed at its last monetary policy meeting.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.24% reversing earlier losses, while the broad-based Topix gained 0.37%. The country’s retail sales climbed 3.7% year on year in June, beating expectations of a 3.2% rise from economists polled by Reuters.
South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.58%, with heavyweight Samsung Electronics up 1.6% as the firm reported a whopping 1,458.2% year on year rise in second-quarter operating profit. The small-cap Kosdaq was down 0.78%
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 was up 1.30%.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index was up 1.9%, leading Asian markets, while mainland China’s CSI 300 was up nearly 2%.
Separately, China’s securities regulatory commission has replaced vice chairman Fang Xinghai with Li Ming, its inspection bureau chief. Fang has been in the role of CSRC vice chairman since 2015. The state-run Global
Times, citing local media, reported that Fang was retiring.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 was dragged lower by declines in megacap tech stocks, as investors braced for quarterly reports from names in that cohort.
Traders also set their eyes on Washington as the Federal Reserve began its latest policy meeting.
Nvidia shares pulled back by 7%, while Microsoft shed about 0.9%. Tech-related giants Amazon, Netflix and Meta Platforms also declined.
The broad market index lost 0.5%, while
the Nasdaq Composite tumbled
1.28%. In contrast, the Dow
Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5%.
Asia stock markets: BOJ decision, China PMI, Australia inflation (cnbc.com)
Here’s everything you need to know about
the Fed decision coming Wednesday
Published Tue, Jul 30 2024 3:30 PM EDT Updated Tue, Jul 30 2024 5:25 PM EDT
This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is not much about the present but potentially very much about the future.
If things go according to expectations, policymakers again will keep short-term interest rates on hold roughly from where they’ve been the past year.
However, with a raft of cooperating inflation data under their belts in recent months, central bankers are widely expected to lay the groundwork for interest rate cuts to begin in September. Just how aggressive they are in spreading those breadcrumbs is the main question markets will be looking to answer.
“Our expectation is that they’re going to keep rates unchanged,” said Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede. “But there’s going to be a lot of focus on the [post-meeting] statement, perhaps teeing up September as whatever the opposite of liftoff is.”
Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. The central bank has kept its benchmark funds rate in a range of 5.25-%-5.5% for the past year. The rate indicates what banks charge each other for overnight lending but sets a guidepost for a slew of other consumer debt products.
As for this week’s meeting, which
concludes Wednesday, traders are assigning a very small possibility of a cut.
However, there are expectations that the rate-setting Federal Open Market
Committee will drop signals that as long as there are no major data hiccups, a
September move is very much on the table.
More
Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday: What you need to know (cnbc.com)
In other news, more signs of that long delayed global recession arriving, just don’t let on to the sky high stock casinos.
Oil prices, which were falling, are stablising following Israel’s assassination of Hamas’s leader in Tehran, putting the middle east back on a path to a wider war again, and the rest of the world closer to WW3.
A change of President in Washington can’t come soon enough if, we’re to avoid stumbling into WW3.
Oil prices slide 1% to 7-week low as China
concerns weigh
July 30, 2024
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices slid about 1% to a seven-week low on Tuesday on worries about weaker demand from China and a stronger U.S. dollar, and concerns OPEC+ could boost supplies in the future.
Brent futures for September delivery fell $1.01, or 1.3%, to $78.77 a barrel by 12:21 p.m. EDT (1621 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 86 cents, or 1.1%, to $74.95.
That puts both benchmarks on track for their lowest closes since June 5 and kept both in technically oversold territory for a second day in a row.
In addition to crude, U.S. futures for diesel and gasoline were also trading at their lowest levels since early June.
A string of disappointing economic news from China, the world's largest crude importer, has been weighing on commodity prices. China's manufacturing activity likely shrunk for a third month in July, according to a Reuters poll.
"Weakening global demand growth, an unresolved economic outlook in China and still-elevated global oil inventories are continuing to weigh on prices" said Claudio Galimberti of consultancy Rystad Energy.
Even as Chinese leaders vowed to step up support for the economy, expectations on the extent of such measures have been limited since the Third Plenum policy meeting largely reiterated existing economic policy goals.
The U.S. dollar rose to a two-week high versus a basket of other currencies before the U.S. Federal Reserve’s July 30-31 policy meeting, where any new clues of a September rate cut will be in focus.
The Fed is expected hold its benchmark overnight interest rate steady at the July meeting and signal that rate cuts may begin as soon as the U.S. central bank's September meeting.
----Coming up on Thursday, top ministers
from OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) along
with allies like Russia, will meet to review the market, including a plan to
start unwinding some output cuts from October. No changes are currently
expected.
More
Oil prices slide 1% to 7-week low as China concerns weigh (msn.com)
Starbucks revenue misses estimates as same-store
sales decline for second straight quarter
Published Tue, Jul 30 2024 3:37 PM EDT
Starbucks on Tuesday reported quarterly revenue that missed analysts’ expectations as both its U.S. and international cafes faced weaker demand.
Still, the results weren’t as bad as investors feared. Shares of the company rose more than 5% in extended trading.
Here is what the company reported compared
to what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by LSEG:
- Earnings
per share: 93 cents adjusted vs. 93 cents expected
- Revenue: $9.11 billion vs. $9.24 billion expected
The coffee giant reported fiscal
third-quarter net income attributable to the company of $1.05 billion, or 93
cents per share, down from $1.14 billion, or 99 cents per share, a year
earlier.
Excluding items, Starbucks earned 93 cents per share.
Net sales dropped 1% to $9.11 billion. The company’s same-store sales fell 3% in the quarter, fueled by a 5% decline in transactions.
Traffic to its U.S. stores fell again this quarter, dropping 6%. Domestic same-store sales fell 2%, boosted by an increase in average ticket. Last quarter, executives discussed plans to revive the lagging U.S. business that included leaning on discounts and new drinks to bring back customers who had abandoned the chain.
CEO Laxman Narasimhan said on Tuesday that
more shoppers are buying its packaged coffee at grocery stores, but a
“challenging consumer environment” is weighing on sales at its cafes.
More
Starbucks (SBUX) Q3 2024 earnings (cnbc.com)
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
German
economy unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in second quarter
July
30, 2024
BERLIN
(Reuters) - The German economy unexpectedly shrank in the second quarter after
skirting a recession at the beginning of the year, showing that the euro zone's
biggest economy is failing to take off despite the easing of inflation
pressures.
Germany's
gross domestic product contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter compared with
the previous three-month period, preliminary data from the statistics office
showed on Tuesday.
Analysts
polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter increase in adjusted
terms, following 0.2% economic growth in the first quarter.
In
a year-on-year comparison, GDP in the second quarter contracted by 0.1%,
adjusted for price and calendar effects.
German economy
unexpectedly shrank by 0.1% in second quarter (msn.com)
US
yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal
By Davide Barbuscia July 29, 2024 11:04 AM GMT+1
NEW YORK, July 29 (Reuters) - The longest and deepest U.S. Treasury yield curve inversion in history, a key bond market signal of an upcoming recession, could be nearing its end.
While an inverted curve has typically preceded a recession, this time there is debate about the predictive power of the curve, with optimism that the U.S. could escape prolonged economic pain. Some indicators in recent weeks have pointed to a slowdown, but growth remains strong thanks to a resilient labor market.
"I'm not looking at it as recessionary as of now, I think it's a very different time," said Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic.
Investors observe the shape of the Treasury yield curve - which plots the yields of all Treasury securities - because it reveals market expectations on monetary policy and the economy. An inverted yield curve, which occurs when short-term debt yields more than long-term paper, has been a harbinger of a recession in nine out of 10 instances over the last 70 years, according to Deutsche Bank data.
Several Wall Street firms expected a recession to occur last year because of higher borrowing costs, but continued economic resilience defied those projections. Economists polled by Reuters this month expect the U.S. economy will keep expanding over the next two years. A majority of bond strategists polled by Reuters earlier this year said the curve was no longer a reliable recession signal.
"It is one of those indicators that may be not as perfect as the data suggests," said Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist for LPL Financial. "Right now, as the yield curve disinverts it's not because of recession, it's just getting back to a normal upward-sloping yield curve."
A key part of the Treasury yield curve that plots two-year and 10-year yields has been continuously inverted since early July 2022, exceeding a previous inversion record from 1978. The inversion followed a cycle of interest-rate increases by the Federal Reserve that started in March 2022 to tame inflation.
In recent weeks, that curve has steepened - meaning that the spread of two-year yields over 10-year (2/10 curve) has narrowed - amid signs of a cooling economy. On Wednesday, the curve hit minus-14.5 basis points, the least inverted it has been since July 2022, Tradeweb data showed. On Friday it was at minus-18.5.
The curve typically turns positive because a slowing economy leads to markets anticipating the Fed will cut rates, causing a rally in short-term debt more than in longer-dated bonds. Yields decline when bond prices increase.
But while a disinversion could happen amid signs of the economy only moderately slowing, as it appears to be doing now, some analysts warn recent yield curve history suggests an economic contraction could still be in the cards.
"In recent cycles, a re-steepening back out of inversion has occurred shortly before a recession, so that’s one to keep an eye on, given how it’s moved ahead of the past few downturns," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said in a note on Thursday.
In
every case Deutsche Bank examined, the curve had re-steepened before the
recession started.
More
US yield curve nears flip with jury out on recession signal | Reuters
Covid-19 Corner
This section will continue until it becomes unneeded.
COVID-19 Is
Widespread In ‘Common Backyard Wildlife’ In US
Jul 29, 2024,04:59pm EDT
A variety of backyard
wildlife, such as rabbits, mice and bats, had SARS-CoV-2 infections,
potentially making evolution of this virus more unpredictable.
A new study has
determined that the COVID-19 virus is widespread amongst wildlife in the United
States. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was recently detected in
six common backyard species. Additionally, antibodies indicating prior exposure
to the virus were found in five species. Depending upon the species, exposure
rates ranged from 40-60%.
The greatest exposure to
the COVID virus was found in animals near hiking trails and high-traffic public
areas, suggesting that the virus passed from humans to wildlife. Genetic
testing of wild animals confirmed both the presence of SARS-CoV-2 and the existence
of unique viral mutations with lineages that closely matched variants
circulating in humans at the time, further supporting the idea of
human-to-animal transmission.
“The virus can jump from
humans to wildlife when we are in contact with them, like a hitchhiker
switching rides to a new, more suitable host,” said one of the study’s
corresponding authors, cancer researcher Carla Finkielstein, a Professor and
Director of the Molecular Diagnostics Lab and Interim Director of the Cancer
Research Group at the Fralin
Biomedical Research Institute at Virginia Tech.
“The goal of the virus is
to spread in order to survive,” Professor Finkielstein explained. “The virus
aims to infect more humans, but vaccinations protect many humans. So, the virus
turns to animals, adapting and mutating to thrive in the new hosts.”
Previously, SARS-CoV-2
infections had been identified primarily in white-tailed deer and feral mink.
But this new study significantly expands the number of species in which the
virus has been found, pointing to areas with high human activity can serve as
points of contact for transmission between humans and animals.
To do this study,
Professor Finkielstein and collaborators collected 798 nasal and oral swabs
from 23 common Virginia species and tested them for both active infections and
for antibodies indicating previous infections. The study animals were either
live-trapped in the field and released, or were being treated by wildlife
rehabilitation centers. The team also collected 126 blood samples from six
species and tested those.
Professor Finkielstein
and collaborators identified the virus in deer mice, Virginia opossums,
raccoons, groundhogs, Eastern cottontail rabbits, and Eastern red bats.
Interestingly, the team collected two mice at the same site on the same day
that had the exact same variant, indicating they either both got it from the
same human, or one mouse infected the other. Additionally, they found one
opossum was infected with a COVID variant with mutations that had never been
seen before. Such mutations could make the virus more dangerous and
transmissible, and could also create challenges for vaccine development.
More
COVID-19 Is Widespread In ‘Common Backyard Wildlife’ In US (forbes.com)
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Surface
oxygen functionality controls selective transport of metal ions through
graphene oxide membranes
July 25, 2024
Developing efficient, selective, and scalable
separations for critical materials, including lithium and magnesium, is
essential to meeting the increasing demands for clean energy technologies and
alleviating challenges with domestic supply chains. Graphene oxide (GO)
membranes have shown promise for separating ions from mixed solutions based on
size.
While previous work used GO membranes for size-based
separations, UV light reduction expands the potential uses of GO membranes by
altering the separation mechanism. This modification approach allows
researchers to tune the functionality of GO membranes via a straightforward
method that uses no harsh or specialty chemicals.
Scientists discovered that reducing GO membranes
with ultraviolet (UV) light alters the oxygen functional
groups on the GO surface. This modification results
in a different, chromatography-like separation mechanism that is selective for
charge rather than size.
Larger, doubly charged cations, such as calcium, move through the membranes faster than smaller, singly charged cations
such as lithium. The work is published in
the Chemical Engineering Journal.
The smaller lithium cations permeate more slowly
through the UV-rGO membranes than larger cations, such as calcium and
magnesium, resulting in a 3- to 4-fold improvement in the separation
selectivity between these representative cations.
UV exposure selectively removed hydroxyl (–OH)
groups from the GO basal planes, leading to enhanced interactions of metal
cations with functional groups located at the edges of GO. This resulted in a
lower ratio of free mobile lithium in solution compared to calcium cations. A
separation mechanism analogous to chromatography is proposed for UV-rGO,
emphasizing the crucial role of different oxygen groups on GO in controlling
selective ion transport through GO membranes.
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt
Clocks (usdebtclock.org)
The
diameter of the earth is greater than the diameter of the moon and the diameter
of the sun is greater than the diameter of the earth.
Archimedes
