Baltic Dry Index. 1032
-11 Brent
Crude 72.17
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Nuclear Trump
Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed
to November, maybe.
The financial crisis that began
in the summer of 2007 was an extraordinarily complex event with multiple
causes.
Ben Bernanke
For once we can open
with good news. The USA announced yesterday that it will delay its decision on
auto tariffs until November. For now, Germany and the EU face no imminent
recession, or at least, no imminent recession brought about by the collapse of
German auto exports to the USA. Trade
War Team Trump blinked for now at the prospect of an Atlantic-Pacific trade war
on two fronts bringing on the next global recession.
The bad news is that
the USA and President Trump fell off the good cop bandwagon and went back to
kicking China’s telecom giants again, on unproven security fears. I suspect
that China will not be shy about responding. Worse, it comes at a time where
the US economy itself is giving signs of slowing.
If the US economy
does join the Chinese economy in slowing, at a time that the EU economy is at
stall speed with Brexit still to come, it will take a miracle for the global
economy to avoid a recession. For President Trump that likely means a recession
in 2020, his presidential re-election year. Were that to happen, it’s anyone’s
guess as to the outcome, given the crowded, ever growing field of declared Democrat
hopeful non-entities.
U.S. blacklists China's Huawei as trade dispute clouds global outlook
May 15, 2019 /
7:05 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - The Trump administration hit Chinese telecoms giant Huawei with
severe sanctions on Wednesday, adding another incendiary element to the
U.S.-China trade dispute just as Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he
would visit China soon for more talks.
The Commerce Department said it was adding Huawei Technologies Co Ltd
and 70 affiliates to its “Entity List” - a move that bans the company from
acquiring components and technology from U.S. firms without government
approval.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement that President Donald
Trump backed the decision to “prevent American technology from being used by
foreign owned entities in ways that potentially undermine U.S. national
security or foreign policy interests.”
Trump earlier in the day signed an executive order barring U.S.
companies from using telecommunications equipment made by firms deemed to pose
a national security risk.
While the order did not specifically name any country or company, U.S.
officials have previously labelled Huawei a “threat” and lobbied allies not to
use Huawei network equipment in next-generation 5G networks.
Huawei, which denies its products pose a security threat, said it was
“ready and willing to engage with the U.S. government and come up with
effective measures to ensure product security.”
It said
restricting Huawei from doing business in the United States would “limit the
U.S. to inferior yet more expensive alternatives, leaving the U.S. lagging
behind in 5G deployment and eventually harming the interests of U.S. companies
and consumers.”
More
Asian markets mixed as Trump moves to ban Huawei
By Marketwatch
and Associated
Press
Published: May 15,
2019 11:37 p.m. ET
Auto stocks mixed after reports that Trump will hold off on tariffs
Asian markets were mixed in early trading Thursday after President Donald Trump signed an order that would ban telecom equipment from countries considered “foreign adversaries,” in a move apparently targeted at China’s Huawei Technologies.On Wall Street, a promising update on the Trump administration’s efforts to reach a trade deal with Canada and Mexico by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin put investors in a buying mood on Wednesday
Sentiment also got a boost from reports that the White House plans to delay new tariffs on car and auto parts imports from Europe by up to six months.
Mnuchin also said he expected to travel soon to Beijing to resume talks on the trade dispute that has rattled financial markets and cast doubt over the global economic outlook.
But the rally fizzled in Asia, after Trump issued an executive order declaring a national economic emergency that empowers the government to ban the technology and services of “foreign adversaries” deemed to pose unacceptable risks to national security. While it doesn’t name specific countries or companies, it follows months of U.S. pressure on Huawei, the world’s biggest supplier of network gear. A ban would also affect China-based ZTE Corp. 0763, -4.82% , which saw its stock tumble in Hong Kong trading.
Japan’s Nikkei NIK, -0.60% sank 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI, +0.24% was about flat. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +0.28% rose 0.1%, while the smaller-cap Shenzhen Composite 399106, +0.23% wavered between slight gains and losses. South Korea’s Kospi SEU, -0.84% fell 0.5%. Taiwan’s Taiex Y9999, -0.26% dipped 0.1%, while benchmark indexes in Singapore STI, +0.05% and Indonesia JAKIDX, -1.49% were mixed. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, +0.32% gave up early gains and was last about flat.
Stocks have been whipsawed this week by worries over the worsening relationship between China and the U.S. and its impact on the broader global economy.
Tensions between the world’s two biggest economies intensified over the last week. The Trump administration more than doubled tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports and spelled out plans to target the $300 billion worth that aren’t already facing 25% taxes. The escalation covers everything from sneakers to toasters to billiard balls. The Chinese have retaliated by hiking tariffs on $60 billion in U.S. imports.
“The only real piece of good news is that the U.S. has announced it will defer its decision on auto tariffs to November, perhaps aimed at placating allies such as Germany and Japan as it fights a trade war with China,” said Chang Wei Liang, of the Asia & Oceania Treasury Department at Mizuho Bank in Singapore.
More
Weak U.S. retail sales point to slowing economy
May 15, 2019 /
2:33 PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in April as households cut back
on purchases of motor vehicles and a range of other goods, pointing to a
slowdown in economic growth after a temporary boost from exports and
inventories in the first quarter.
The economy’s outlook was also dimmed by other data on Wednesday showing
a decline in industrial production last month. The weak reports came in the
midst of an escalating trade war between the United States and China, which has
triggered a massive stock market sell-off.
Economists have warned the trade tensions could undercut growth.
Following the retail sales report, some economists trimmed their second-quarter
growth estimates.
The Commerce Department said retail sales slipped 0.2% last month. Data
for March was revised slightly up to show retail sales surging 1.7%, the
largest increase since September 2017, instead of the previously reported 1.6%
jump.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales gaining 0.2% in
April. Retail sales in April increased 3.1% from a year ago.
U.S. financial markets were little moved by the data.
Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services,
retail sales were unchanged in April after an upwardly revised 1.1%
acceleration in March. These so-called core retail sales correspond most
closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product.
They were previously reported to have soared 1.0% in March. Consumer
spending accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity. While March’s
strong core retail sales set consumer spending on an upward trajectory in the
second quarter, last month’s weakness suggested the pickup in consumption could
be moderate.
More
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP forecast is sliding, and expectations for rate cuts are surging
- The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker is pointing to a 1.1% gain in the second quarter, down from 3.2% in the first quarter.
- Traders now see the Fed cutting its benchmark interest rate by September, although central bank officials have said they are staying put.
The Atlanta Fed’s closely watched GDPNow tracker is pointing to a 1.1% gain for the economy in the second quarter, according to a revision posted Wednesday. That comes on the back of a strong first three months that saw a 3.2% gain and is substantially lower than CNBC’s Rapid Update survey, which puts the GDP tracking estimate at 2%.
Disappointing
retail sales in April fueled the latest leg down in the Atlanta Fed outlook.
The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that sales declined 0.2% for the
month against expectations of a 0.2% gain. Along with the retail letdown,
industrial production fell 0.5% against Wall Street estimates of a 0.1% gain.
More
Report: U.S.-China trade war could hurt Japan, Taiwan firms
Updated May 15,
2019 at 11:02 PM
May 15 (UPI) -- Leading electronics manufacturers in Japan and Taiwan are facing a
crisis because of U.S. President Donald
Trump's decision to possibly place 25 percent tariffs on another $300
billion worth of "Chinese" goods, according to a Japanese press
report.The Nikkei reported Wednesday the tariffs would hit 3,805 items, including key consumer products like smartphones. Top Japanese, Taiwanese and South Korean mobile phone manufacturers with plants in China could be heavily hit with tariffs, according to the report.
Terry Guo, chief executive of Foxconn in Taiwan, has said the firm is reviewing its options because "no end appears to be in sight" in the U.S.-China trade war.
Foxconn, a major manufacturer for companies like Apple, has 12 factories in nine Chinese cities and hires more than a million employees on the mainland.
Taiwanese manufacturer Compal Electronics, maker of the latest iPads for Apple, is also exploring relocation options. The company could move operations to Vietnam, according to the Nikkei.
Asus, the Taiwan-based multinational computer and electronics company, has maintained a long-term presence in China. The company is also not ruling out relocation despite plants that began operations in China in the 1990s.
Other firms in Taiwan, like Quanta Computer, may not be able to relocate owing to high costs associated with relocation and negotiations.
More
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2019/05/15/Report-US-China-trade-war-could-hurt-Japan-Taiwan-firms/1181557944477/?ls=4
Finally,
has China lost patience with US bullying? Probably not, but this serves as a
timely reminder that things can get a lot worse yet in the USA v China trade
war. Export duties on global rare earth sales by China next? China makes plans
for the next decade.
Exclusive: Tanker unloads Iranian fuel oil at China port after near five-month trek - data
May 16, 2019 /
5:03 AM
SINGAPORE/BEIJING (Reuters) - A tanker carrying Iranian fuel oil in
violation of U.S. sanctions has unloaded the cargo into storage tanks near the
Chinese city of Zhoushan, according to ship tracking data on Refinitiv Eikon.
The discharging of the nearly 130,000 tonnes of Iranian fuel oil onboard
the tanker, the Marshal Z, confirmed by a representative of the oil storage
terminal, marks the end of an odyssey for the cargo that began four months ago.
Reuters reported on March 20 that some Iranian fuel oil had managed to
evade the United States’ sanctions on petroleum exports by using ship-to-ship
transfers involving four different ships, including the Marshal Z, and by using
forged documents that masked the cargoes as originating from Iraq.
A second representative from the terminal operator, Zhoushan Jinrun
Petroleum Transfer Co, said the cargo could not be Iranian oil, as the terminal
had not received official shipments from Iran in at least the past four years.
Both Jinrun representatives declined to be identified because of the
sensitivity of the matter.
The unloading of the fuel oil comes less than two weeks after U.S.
President Donald Trump’s administration stepped up moves to choke off Iran’s
oil exports by scrapping waivers it had granted to big buyers of the country’s
crude oil including China.
Refined products like fuel oil, mainly used to power ship engines and
generate electricity, were not covered by the temporary waivers granted on the
sanctions reintroduced in November 2018 as Washington seeks to pressure Iran
into abandoning its nuclear and missile programmes.
More
China to host 2023 Asian Cup after Korea withdraw bid
Date created :
South Korea have abandoned their bid to stage football's Asian Cup in
2023, authorities said, leaving the sole other bidders China with a free run to
become hosts.
The Korea Football Association (KFA) said in a statement it had pulled
out to "strategically focus" on a joint bid with North Korea to host
the Women's World Cup in the same year.
The KFA announced the joint bid in March, but diplomatic contacts
between Pyongyang and Seoul have since dwindled with North Korea-US nuclear
talks deadlocked.
"For the Women's World Cup, FIFA and the South Korean government
will provide active support so that the joint hosting by South and North Koreas
can be materialised," the KFA's head Chun Han-jin said in the statement
late Wednesday.
Seoul's Asian Cup withdrawal means that China should on June 4 be
confirmed by the AFC (Asian Football Confederation) as hosts of the nations
championship finals for the second time.
China staged the tournament in 2004 when the hosts lost 3-1 to Japan in
the Beijing final.
More
With
a possible global recession looming, global politics has never looked more
dismal. Polls suggest a socialist win in Saturday’s Australian election. Next week’s
European elections are forecast to return a myriad of anti-EU MEPs. Any fall
off in the US economy imperils both Re-election Team Trump and the Federal
Reserve. Globally nothing seems to work for the central banks as planned.
Time
to reduce risk and go longer fully paid up physical precious metals. You just
never know when insurance will be needed.
In the long run, outsourcing is
another form of trade that benefits the U.S. economy by giving us cheaper ways
to do things.
Janet Yellen
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
That USA v China trade war again. China
follows the US and moves to protect some Chinese firms from their own import
tariffs. Uncle Sam still wants China’s rare earths. Both seem to be preparing
for a long trade war of attrition.
China throws trade war tariff exclusion lifelines that it thought it would never need
·
Beijing has been working on the exemptions for
six months
·
Roll-out signals trade war has gone further than
China expected
Finbarr
Bermingham Published: 7:26pm, 14 May, 2019
When officials in Beijing started consulting lawyers six months ago
about protecting Chinese industries from potential tariffs on imports from the
United States, they were not certain they would have to act on the advice.
According to a source familiar with the consultations, senior officials
within the government “really thought the tariffs would go away”.
But then on Monday with China’s announcement of extra tariffs on US$60
billion in US imports there was a sign that a line had been crossed – for the
first time the government offered a tariff exclusion process.
“It is a sign that things are probably going to be going on a little bit
longer from the top down than they thought,” the source said.
The process is
largely based on a similar programme in the US and allows tariff-affected firms
in China to apply for an exclusion.
The Chinese exclusions
are a lifeline to key industries that Beijing wants to protect from the turmoil
of the trade war. Given that importers must pay the extra duties themselves,
offering exemptions to those that cannot afford the tariffs makes economic
sense, according to analysts.
Jon Cowley, a senior international trade lawyer at Baker McKenzie in
Hong Kong, said China was throwing its economy a “life jacket” while still
trying to match the United States on tariffs.
“They want to be careful not to damage the economy or important economic
players that lack viable substitutes for these products. It is a sensible
policy, but happens to be one that is difficult to implement and requires a lot
of work,” Cowley said.
----Peng
said that while the US and Chinese tariff increases did not come as a surprise,
the exclusion note did. She said she fielded calls all day on Tuesday from
clients wondering if they would qualify for an exclusion.
“Only Chinese companies can apply, and [the Chinese government]
encouraged a lot of trading associations to apply too, because the government
is familiar with working with them,” she said, suggesting that Beijing has
already identified the industries it wants to support.
Officials on both sides have about six weeks to reach an agreement if
they want to do so in time for a possible meeting between Trump and Chinese
President Xi Jinping at the G20 Summit in Osaka in late June. Trump has
signalled that this will happen but China has not yet confirmed Xi’s
participation.
More
U.S. leaves rare earths, critical minerals off China tariff list
May 14, 2019 /
3:40 PM
BEIJING (Reuters)
- The United States has again decided not to impose tariffs on rare earths and
other critical minerals from China, underscoring its reliance on the Asian
nation for a group of materials used in everything from consumer electronics to
military equipment.
The minerals are set to be among the few items spared from U.S. tariffs
in an escalating trade war with China, which is by far the world’s biggest
producer of rare earths.
Beijing, however, is set to raise tariffs on around $60 billion in U.S.
goods, including rare earth ores, hitting back at a tariff hike by Washington
on $200 billion of Chinese goods in the bitter trade dispute.
The office of U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer also on Monday
released a list of further Chinese goods, worth around $300 billion annually,
that have been earmarked for a 25 percent tariff.
Lighthizer on Friday said
this next round of tariffs would cover “essentially all remaining imports from
China” not yet hit by tariffs.
The list, which is open for public comments until June 17, does not
include rare earth materials and other critical minerals, and also excludes
pharmaceuticals and select medical goods, the document said.
“These materials are critical to
U.S. industry and defense, and with nowhere else to turn for supplies in the
near-term, the tariffs would invoke more suffering on U.S. end-users than
China,” said Ryan Castilloux, managing director of consultancy Adamas
Intelligence, in an e-mail.
In July last year, the U.S. Trade Representative office included rare
earths on a provisional list of tariffs on Chinese goods, only to remove it
later from the final list.
The United States “won’t be unable to find a replacement in the short
term ... so if they want to tax rare earth products that would make it worse
for themselves,” said an analyst at stake-backed Chinese research house
Antaike, who asked not to be named.
Rare earths were in a list of 35 minerals deemed critical to U.S.
security and economic prosperity published one year ago. Most of these 35
minerals are now subject to the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, but rare earths,
antimony - used in batteries and flame retardant - helium and natural graphite
are not.
Cesium and rubidium, used in research and development and neither of
which are mined in the United States, are also spared, as are fluorspar, used
to make gasoline, steel and uranium fuel.
More
The very nature of finance is
that it cannot be profitable unless it is significantly leveraged... and as
long as there is debt, there can be failure and contagion.
Alan Greenspan
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Alarming study finds plastic ocean pollution harms bacteria that produces the oxygen we breathe
15 May 2019
An important new study is raising novel
concerns over the effects of plastic pollution in our oceans. For the first
time researchers investigated how a common ocean bacteria, responsible for
producing over 10 percent of oxygen in the atmosphere, is negatively impaired
by chemicals that can leach out of plastic products.
This remarkable cyanobacterium is not only the smallest photosynthesizing organism on the planet, but also one of the most abundant. Some estimates suggest there are as much as three octillion Prochlorococcus in the ocean, where they not only help keep the waters healthy, but also produce a substantial volume of the oxygen we breathe.
"These tiny microorganisms are critical to the marine food web, contribute to carbon cycling and are thought to be responsible for up to 10 per cent of the total global oxygen production," says Lisa Moore, from Australia's Macquarie University and co-author on the new study. "So one in every 10 breaths of oxygen you breathe in is thanks to these little guys, yet almost nothing is known about how marine bacteria, such as Prochlorococcus respond to human pollutants."
To fill this substantial gap in scientific knowledge, the researchers took two different strains of the cyanobacteria and in laboratory conditions exposed them to chemicals known to leach out of common plastic products. The results were striking with the chemicals impairing the Prochlorococcus' growth, reducing its ability to photosynthesize, and altering the expression of a large number of its genes.
The study obviously has a number of limitations if one is trying to extrapolate these results to the general effect of plastics in the ocean. The researchers do note that their experiments do not equate to specific concentrations of plastics in the ocean, but instead they're designed to try to better understand what the impact of plastic pollution could be on this vitally important population of microorganisms in our marine systems.
"Our data shows that plastic pollution may have widespread ecosystem impacts beyond the known effects on macro-organisms, such as seabirds and turtles," says lead author on the study, Sasha Tetu. "If we truly want to understand the full impact of plastic pollution in the marine environment and find ways to mitigate it, we need to consider its impact on key microbial groups, including photosynthetic microbes."
While a great deal of activity currently circles the problem of plastics, and microplastics, in our ocean ecosystems, very little is known about what actual damage these pollutants are causing. Further study will be necessary to investigate the effects of these plastics on microorganisms in the actual ocean, but the researchers hypothesize this to potentially be a significant global issue.
More
Economics is extremely useful as a form of
employment for economists.
John
Kenneth Galbraith
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down.
SP500: 2,946
+55 Up.
The S&P has
reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President
Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now
officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest
action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the
major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.
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