Wednesday, 15 May 2019

The Sucker’s Rally?


Baltic Dry Index. 1043 +17   Brent Crude 70.92

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe. 
Nuclear Trump Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war any day from now.  No one optimistic.

“You are a slow learner, Xi," said Trump
"How can I help it? How can I help but see what is in front of my eyes? Two and two are four."
"Sometimes, Xi. Sometimes they are five. Sometimes they are three. Sometimes they are all of them at once. You must try harder.

With apologies to George Orwell 1984.

After several days of severe rhetoric blasting China for “reneging” on an agreed trade deal, unintentionally blasting US stock markets and his 2020 re-election chances, President Trump U-turned his rhetoric yesterday back towards that a trade deal still might be possible.

Investors, aka “Muppets” at a famous if not infamous leading Wall Street firm, raced back into the markets to get long over-priced stocks. Re-election Team Trump breathed a big sigh of relief.  I suspect that their sigh of relief will be short lived. Nothing has really changed.

US consumers face sharply higher prices on many consumer goods over the summer. US manufacturers face higher Chinese import costs and lower margins. US farmers face sharply lower prices and bankruptcy.

And all this is before President Trump starts his next trade war with the European Union over auto exports to the USA, which according to President Trump represent a severe security threat to the USA requiring punitive tariffs. The EU says “go ahead, make my day, we will retaliate.” President Trump has authority to start his European trade war from mid-May, which is today or tomorrow. Any USA v EU trade war is highly likely to push the EU into recession.

Ticking away like an unexploded time bomb in Europe lies Brexit, which itself under the EU’s botched Brexit negotiations, is also highly likely to push the EU into recession, and probably GB into a constitutional crisis, which is quite something for a nation without a written constitution.

All in all, no reason to gamble on over-priced stocks at the onset of summer.

Asia stocks bounce from three-and-a-half month lows as trade fears soften

May 15, 2019 / 1:48 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian stocks bounced from a 3-1/2-month low on Wednesday as a slight softening in rhetoric from U.S. President Donald Trump helped ease worries about the U.S.-China tariff war and on expectations Beijing could release more economic stimulus.

Shares in Asia were led by strong gains in Chinese equities, which rebounded after two days of losses. 

“Chinese stocks are mounting a rebound as they had been oversold in recent sessions. Sentiment is also better as President Trump seems to be desiring a compromise,” said Kota Hirayama, senior emerging markets economist at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan gained 0.5%. The index had fallen to its lowest level since the end of January the previous day as the Sino-U.S. trade conflict intensified. Beijing on Monday imposed a tariff hike on U.S. goods following Washington’s decision last week to hike its levies on Chinese imports.

However, Trump on Tuesday said he had a “very good” dialogue with China and insisted talks between the world’s two largest economies had not collapsed. Wall Street shares were able to bounce overnight in wake of Trump’s comments.

---- “The latest data shows that the Chinese economy still needs stimulus. Its stock markets could sustain its recovery if the government indicates it will continue to keep supporting the economy,” Hirayama at SMBC Nikko Securities said.

Australian stocks added 0.6%, South Korea’s KOSPI gained 0.7% and Japan’s Nikkei dipped 0.1%.
The Chinese yuan was a shade firmer at 6.9005 per dollar in offshore trade, having edged away from a five-month trough of 6.9200 set on Tuesday.
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China's economic activity cools in April

By MarketWatch  Published: May 14, 2019 11:39 p.m. ET
BEIJING-- China's economic activity cooled last month as growth in factory production, investment and retail sales slowed.

Value-added industrial output in China rose 5.4% in April from a year earlier, slowing from an 8.5% year-over-year increase in March, the National Bureau of Statistics said Wednesday. April's growth also missed the median forecast of 6.6% from a Wall Street Journal poll of economists.

Fixed-asset investment in non-rural areas rose 6.1% in the January-to-April period from a year ago, slowing from the 6.3% growth in the first three months, and missing economists' median forecast of 6.4%

Retail sales climbed 7.2% in April from a year earlier, slowing from March's 8.7% growth and missing economists' median forecast for growth of 8.8%

Economists expect the government to step up efforts to help stabilize the domestic economy amid rising trade tensions with the U.S.

Trump calls trade war with China 'little squabble,' says talks ongoing

May 14, 2019 / 4:24 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday called the trade war with China “a little squabble” and insisted talks between the world’s two largest economies had not collapsed, as investors remained on guard for a further escalation of tit-for-tat tariffs. 

Trump, who has railed against what he describes as China’s unfair trade practices and threatened to impose punitive levies on all its imports, softened his tone in a series of remarks expressing optimism about reaching a trade deal with Beijing.

“We’re having a little squabble with China because we’ve been treated very unfairly for many, many decades,” Trump told reporters, referring to U.S. complaints about Chinese intellectual property and subsidy practices.

Trump also denied talks with China had broken down after Washington punctuated two days of negotiations last week with another round of tariffs on Chinese imports, with Beijing following suit on Monday with higher tariffs on U.S. goods.

“We have a dialogue going. It will always continue,” said the U.S. president, who has announced plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping at a G20 summit in Japan late next month. Trump described the dialogue with China as “very good” and touted his “extraordinary” relationship with Xi.

Earlier, Trump tweeted that the United States would make a deal with China when the “time is right” and said that would happen “much faster” than thought.

Global stock markets, which have seen a sharp selloff in the past week on the back of rising U.S.-China tensions, rebounded. Major U.S. stock indexes were up more than 1%, recovering some of their losses on Monday. The U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies.

Earlier on Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a daily news briefing that it was his understanding that China and the United States had agreed to continue “pursuing relevant discussions.”

“As for how they are pursued, I think that hinges upon further consultations between the two sides,” Geng said.

---- U.S. agricultural products have been targeted by China’s retaliatory tariffs, and American farmers, a key political constituency for Trump, are increasingly frustrated with the failure of the two sides to find a solution to the dispute.

Soybeans , which was the most valuable U.S. export crop, bounced off a decade low on Tuesday as the market’s focus shifted to weather-related planting delays that could reduce the crop size. Some analysts said the worst of the trade news was priced into the market.

In a tweet earlier on Tuesday, Trump appealed to China to buy U.S. farm products.
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Beijing calls for a 'people's war' against the US as Trump threatens tariffs on another $300 billion of Chinese goods in all-out trade battle

Published .
The US-China trade war continues to heat up, with Beijing calling for a "people's war" against Washington and President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs on another $300 billion worth of Chinese goods.

In a series of editorials and op-ed articles published Monday, Chinese state media slammed what it labeled the Trump administration's "greed and arrogance" and called for a "people's war" against it. Beijing's state-run media effectively serves as a mouthpiece for the Communist Party.

"The most important thing is that in the China-US trade war, the US side fights for greed and arrogance ... and morale will break at any point. The Chinese side is fighting back to protect its legitimate interests," the nationalistic Global Times tabloid wrote in a Chinese-language editorial carried by Xinhua News Agency.

"The trade war in the US is the creation of one person and one administration, but it affects that country's entire population. In China, the entire country and all its people are being threatened. For us, this is a real 'people's war.'"
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In other news, more sign of our new slowing global economy.

Taiwan's Foxconn shares drop more than 2% after quarterly profit miss

May 15, 2019 / 2:18 AM
TAIPEI (Reuters) - Shares of Foxconn, the world’s largest contract manufacturer, dropped more than 2% on Wednesday after the company posted a lower-than-expected quarterly profit.

Foxconn, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, reported a net profit of T$19.82 billion ($637.26 million) for the first three months of 2019, down 17.7% from the same period a year earlier.

The result lagged the T$24.84 billion average of eight analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.

“War is peace. Freedom is slavery.  Ignorance is strength.”

George Orwell 1984.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner 

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, WhatsApp, are your enemies targeting you?

How Hackers Broke WhatsApp With Just a Phone Call

Author: Lily Hay Newman 05.14.19 12:05 pm
You've heard the advice a million times. Don't click links in suspicious emails or texts. Don't download shady apps. But a new Financial Times report alleges that the notorious Israeli spy firm NSO Group developed a WhatsApp exploit that could inject malware onto targeted phones—and steal data from them—simply by calling them. The targets didn't need to pick up to be infected, and the calls often left no trace on the phone's log. But how would a hack like that even work in the first place?

WhatsApp, which offers encrypted messaging by default to its 1.5 billion users worldwide, discovered the vulnerability in early May and released a patch for it on Monday. The Facebook-owned company told the FT that it contacted a number of human rights groups about the issue and that exploitation of this vulnerability bears "all the hallmarks of a private company known to work with governments to deliver spyware." In a statement, NSO Group denied any involvement in selecting or targeting victims but not its role in the creation of the hack itself.

So-called zero-day bugs, in which attackers find a vulnerability before the company can patch it, happen on every platform. It's part and parcel of software development; the trick is to close those security gaps as quickly as possible. Still, a hack that requires nothing but an incoming phone call seems uniquely challenging—if not impossible—to defend against.

WhatsApp wouldn't elaborate to WIRED about how it discovered the bug or give specifics on how it works, but the company says it is doing infrastructure upgrades in addition to pushing a patch to ensure that customers can't be targeted with other phone-call bugs.

"Remote-exploitable bugs can exist in any application that receives data from untrusted sources," says Karsten Nohl, chief scientist at the German firm Security Research Labs. That includes WhatsApp calls, which use the voice-over-internet protocol to connect users. VoIP applications have to acknowledge incoming calls and notify you about them, even if you don't pick up. "The more complex the data parsing, the more room for error," Nohl says. "In the case of WhatsApp, the protocol for establishing a connection is rather complex, so there is definitely room for exploitable bugs that can be triggered without the other end picking up the call."
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“Big Brother is Watching You.”

George Orwell 1984.

Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

The Fusion Reactor Next Door

Entrepreneurs are taking up the search for a near limitless energy source and seeking investors willing to put money behind a long-shot bet against climate change.
By Stanley Reed May 13, 2019

YARNTON, England — On a Friday afternoon, a small group of scientists gathered in front of a bank of computer screens near a Ping-Pong table in a warehouse close to Britain’s Oxford University. Scattered conversations and laughter hushed as a siren started blaring.

One of the scientists began calling out, “10 … 20 … 30 …,” as a hulking machine behind thick walls in the next room was pumped with electromagnetic energy. Within seconds, he gave the command: “Send trigger!”

A sudden bang like a shotgun blast reverberated through the building. The equivalent of hundreds of lightning strikes going off at once had just exploded.

“Well done, everyone,” someone said after a few moments, and the chatter resumed. The scientists had just taken another small step toward harnessing the power of the universe, and the weekend beckoned.

The promise of fusion energy seems fantastic and unapproachable: It is the power behind the sun and the stars. The spark comes when hydrogen nuclei fuse to become heavier atoms. The tremendous burst of energy released in the resulting transformation creates sunlight, and the conditions that enabled our creation. Without it, the universe would be cold, dark and lifeless.

Since the 1930s, scientists have been trying to harness fusion, thinking that it could run the electric power plants of the future and even send people to other planets.

The fusing of hydrogen and helium atoms requires incredible heat and pressure, and for decades fusion research has been the exclusive province of big science, like ITER, a 35-nation thermonuclear project in the south of France that covers 100 acres and is expected to ultimately cost more than $20 billion.

Such initiatives, though, have made slow progress toward the ultimate goal of building a machine that generates more power than it takes in.

Fusion is now attracting science-minded entrepreneurs and investors willing to make a long bet. They see small companies as more nimble than government-funded behemoths. They are sensitive to rising alarms over the impact of climate change. They want to create a power source with enviable possibilities: millions of times the energy potential of oil and gas and substantially more than nuclear power, without the carbon emissions of fossil fuels.

Fusion proponents also say that it is free of most of the risks of contemporary nuclear plants — which are powered by splitting, not joining, atoms — and that it has advantages over wind and solar, whose output is variable and whose turbines and panels require enormous space.

“There is no doubt in my mind that humanity will eventually succeed in making fusion energy happen,” said Robin Grimes, a professor of physics at Imperial College, a public research university in London. “We’ve got no choice.”
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The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April

DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down. SP500: 2,946 +55 Up. 

The S&P has reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.

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