Baltic Dry Index. 985
-47 Brent
Crude 69.26
Never ending Brexit
now October 31, maybe.
Day 157 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Trump Tariffs
Friday!
USA v EU trade war 9
days away? No one optimistic.
“If
you're not gonna pull the trigger, don't point the gun.”
James Baker. United States Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and U.S. Secretary of State and White House Chief of Staff under President George H. W. Bush
With President Trump’s
tweets threatening to impose punitive tariffs on China as early as this Friday,
just 4 days away, global stock markets are now set up for a crash landing. Nearly
all were complacently betting on a face saving trade deal between China and the
USA, with a joint signing between President’s Trump and Xi expected at the end
of May or sometime in June. President Trump just blew that out of the water.
Will China even
bother to attend this week’s trade talks, due to take place in Washington? Can
President Trump possibly back away from his brash threat? How likely is President
Xi to publicly kowtow to President Trump before Friday? My guess is about zero.
My guess is that
China’s consumer class will retaliate against US goods and firms, whatever
response China’s government makes. US farmers ought to think twice before
planting soybeans this year.
Below President Trump
points the gun at China’s head. Is there any way now not to pull the trigger? US
consumers, run do not walk down to Walmart’s, and get your last tariff free Chinese
made goods now! This trade war is about to go nuclear.
Trump vows tariff hike on Chinese goods, escalating tension in trade talks
May 5, 2019 / 6:00
PM
WASHINGTON
(Reuters) - President Donald Trump dramatically increased pressure on China to
reach a trade deal on Sunday, saying he would hike U.S. tariffs on $200 billion
worth of Chinese goods this week and target hundreds of billions more soon.
The move marked a major escalation in tensions between the world’s
largest economies and a shift in tone from Trump, who had cited progress in
trade talks as recently as Friday. Stock markets sank and oil prices tumbled as
negotiations were thrown into doubt.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday night that China was
considering canceling this week’s trade talks in Washington in light of Trump’s
comments, which took Chinese officials by surprise.
U.S. officials did not immediately know if China would attend and the
U.S. Trade Representative’s Office did not immediately comment. China’s
commerce ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
But the editor of an influential, Chinese state-run newspaper said Liu
was unlikely to go.
“I think Vice Premier Liu He will very unlikely go to the US this week.
Let Trump raise tariffs. Let’s see when trade talks can resume,” Hu Xijin,
editor-in-chief of the tabloid the Global Times, tweeted.
The newspaper is published by the ruling Communist Party’s People’s
Daily, but it not considered an official publication and does not speak for the
government.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin had described last week’s
negotiations in Beijing as “productive.”
But a less than rosy update from United States Trade Representative
Robert Lighthizer, including details that China was pulling back from some
commitments it made previously, prompted Trump’s decision and jab on Twitter at
Beijing, officials said.
“The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly, as they attempt to
renegotiate. No!” Trump said in a tweet.
Global financial markets, which had been largely pricing in expectations
of a trade deal, went into a tailspin. U.S. equity futures fell more than 2
percent and stocks across trade-reliant Asia tumbled, with China’s main indexes
plunging 4 percent.
More
‘Tariff Man Is Back’: Stock Futures Sink on Trump Trade Tweets
By Sarah Ponczek and Vildana Hajric
Updated on 6 May 2019, 02:04 BST
U.S. stock futures fell sharply after President Donald
Trump threatened to escalate the yearlong trade war with
China, disrupting calm that helped push equities toward all-time highs.Contracts on the S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average extended declines, falling 2.1 percent each at 9 p.m. in New York. Nasdaq 100 Index futures lost 2.3 percent. Major equity benchmarks closed within a whisker of records Friday after a strong jobs report bolstered optimism in the economy. China is considering delaying a trip to Washington by its top trade negotiators after
Trump threatened the country with steeper tariffs, according to people familiar with the matter.
“When the president puts his foot down, it makes the market go down,” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank in New York, wrote in an email. “Tariff man is back just in time to make the stock market dive, dive, dive.”
The
president’s latest salvo unnerved investors who had grown confident the
administration was close to ending its spat with China. Trump on Sunday ramped
up pressure on China to complete a trade deal this week during talks in
Washington, threatening to more than double tariffs on $200 billion of the
Asian nation’s sales to the world’s largest economy, and impose new import
taxes.
----Trump
has deployed the threat of tariffs repeatedly as seeks concessions from China
in trade talks between the world’s two largest economies. He also on Sunday
raised the possibility of imposing a 25 percent tariff on another $325 billion
in imports from China not currently covered. Such a move could disrupt the U.S.
economy as it would hit products such as smartphones and computers that have
been left off lists so far.
----“For
the market, if talks continue despite an increase in tariffs, the market can
absorb the delay, but a shutdown in negotiations would be a clear market
negative,” said Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial
Inc.
More
Yuan Plunges, U.S. Stock Futures Drop on Trade War: Markets Wrap
By Andreea Papuc
Updated on 6 May 2019, 05:50 BST
China’s yuan plunged the most in three years and equity
markets were roiled after President Donald Trump’s threat to increase tariffs on
Chinese imports cast a cloud over talks this week that were expected to
finalize a trade deal.The yuan slumped as much as 1.3 percent against the dollar, and Chinese shares tumbled more than 5 percent when the market opened after a holiday. Futures on the S&P 500 Index sank as much as 2.2 percent after Trump tweeted a plan to hike tariffs on Friday and China was reported to consider delaying the upcoming talks. European equity-index futures slumped. The Australian dollar also fell, while the yen climbed. West Texas Intermediate crude declined 3 percent. U.S. Treasury futures soared, with the cash market closed due to a holiday in Japan.
Trump ramped up pressure on China to make concessions in talks scheduled
to be held in Washington this week by threatening to more than double tariffs
on $200 billion of Chinese goods, and impose a fresh round of import taxes on
top of that. Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He was scheduled to arrive in Washington
on Wednesday with a delegation of about 100 people, but now China is
considering delaying that trip, according to people familiar with the matter.
“It’s making the outcomes more binary, with everybody focused on the
Friday deadline. There doesn’t seem to be much leeway now to much go past
that,” Joyce Chang, chair of global research at JPMorgan Chase & Co., said
on Bloomberg Television. “It’s going to mean that investors will be very
focused on the trade issues even beyond China,” with a review of U.S.
auto-import tariffs still pending, she said.
----Trump’s
comments came after the S&P 500 Index rose the most in a month Friday, with
April employment data suggesting the American labor market can support growth
without sparking inflation. With Japan’s markets are closed for a holiday
Monday, Treasuries won’t trade in the cash market in Asia.
More
Finally, in other
news, the sky just fell in on Boeing, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Should the two 737 Max crashes now be investigated as murder?
Boeing Knew About Safety-Alert Problem for a Year Before Telling FAA, Airlines
The problem kept a safety feature found on earlier models from functioning on the 737 MAX
By Andy Pasztor, Andrew Tangel
and Alison Sider Updated May 5, 2019 7:15 p.m.
ET
Boeing Co. BA 0.18% didn’t share information about a problem
with a cockpit safety alert for about a year before the issue drew attention
with the October crash of a 737 MAX jet in Indonesia, and then gave some
airlines and pilots partial and inconsistent explanations, according to
industry and government officials. It was only after a second MAX accident in Ethiopia nearly five months later, these officials said, that Boeing became more forthcoming with airlines about the problem. And the company didn’t publicly disclose the software error behind the problem for another six weeks, in the interim leaving the flying public and, according to a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman, the agency’s acting chief unaware.
The length of time between when Boeing realized the problem and when it shared that information hasn’t been previously reported. The problem kept a safety feature found on earlier models from functioning on the MAX, though it isn’t clear if the feature would have prevented either crash.
Senior FAA and airline officials increasingly are raising questions about how transparent the Chicago aerospace giant has been regarding problems with the cockpit warnings, according to people familiar with their thinking.
The growing scrutiny could pose new challenges to Boeing’s efforts to shore up confidence in the 737 MAX, solicit regulatory support around the globe and get the MAX fleet, grounded after the second crash, flying again.
Meanwhile, as part of a criminal probe into whether Boeing misled regulators or customers, investigators as recently as last week were asking questions about how the MAX jets gained approval for flight and about Boeing officials involved in the process.
On Sunday, Boeing said company engineers in 2017 identified that the alerts weren’t operating as intended due to a software error. Boeing said that at the time it relied on standard internal procedures and conducted an internal review by engineers and managers that determined that the problem didn’t “adversely impact airplane safety or operation.” Senior Boeing leaders didn’t learn about the issue until after the Oct. 29, 2018, Lion Air crash, the company said.
More
https://www.wsj.com/articles/boeing-knew-about-safety-alert-problem-for-a-year-before-telling-faa-airlines-11557087129
"Our country is in serious
trouble. We don't have victories any more. We used to have victories but [now]
we don't have them. When was the last time anybody saw us beating, let's say,
China, in a trade deal? They kill us. I beat China all the time. All the
time."
Donald J. Trump, campaign launch
rally, 15/6/15
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, more fallout from that easy to win trade war. Will exceptional
rains bring higher price relief? Yes, but only if a crop gets planted. But with
Trump’s latest tweets, is it worth planting any soybeans this year in America?
Trade war and sagging prices push U.S. family farmers to leave the field
April 30, 2019 /
1:32 PM
BEATTIE, KANSAS (Reuters) - Shuffling across his frozen fields, farmer
Jim Taphorn hunched his shoulders against the wind and squinted at the
auctioneer standing next to his tractors.After a fifth harvest with low grain
prices, made worse last fall by the U.S.-China trade war, the 68-year-old and
his family were calling it quits. Farming also was taking a physical toll on
him, he said; he’d suffered a heart attack 15 months before.
It took less than four hours to sell off all the tractors, combines and
other farm equipment at the Taphorn retirement sale, ending a family tradition
that had survived nearly a century.
“We went through the bad times in the ‘70s and ‘80s,” said Jim, 68,
broad-shouldered and stocky. “In some ways, this is worse.”
Across the Midwest, growing numbers of grain farmers are choosing to
shed their machinery and find renters for their land, all to stem the financial
strain on their families, a dozen leading farm-equipment auction houses told
Reuters. As these older grain farmers are retiring, fewer younger people are
lining up to replace them.
The trend has created boom times for the auction houses, which report
that their retirement business has grown 30 percent or more over the past six
months, compared to the same period a year earlier.
But it is expected to put a strain on the agricultural supply chain: It
means fewer customers for seed and chemical companies, fewer machine buyers,
and fewer suppliers for grain merchants.
The revival of the family farming tradition proved short-lived.
---- Farmer retirement rates are not tracked by either state or U.S. government agencies, but federal data shows the ranks of farmers are gradually aging. The average age of U.S. farm operators was 57.5 years in 2017, up from 54.3 years in 1997.
The number of farms is shrinking, too, as the industry increasingly is
consolidated either into the hands of large-scale operators or tiny niche crop
growers. Mid-sized farms – those with annual sales of more than $50,000 but
less than $5 million - are dwindling.
---- For many families, leaving farming is a painful but simple calculation: The trade war with China, set off by tariffs imposed by the Trump Administration, has lasted nearly 10 months.
China, the top buyer of U.S. soybeans, the nation’s most valuable agricultural
export, has dramatically reduced its purchases. Grain prices have remained
stubbornly low and operating costs are rising fast.
More
Trouble could be brewing for farmers in the US Corn Belt
By John Roach, AccuWeather staff writer May 03, 2019
Corn planting is behind schedule in the United States because of the weather in four of the top six states for corn production -- and that situation is not expected to improve when the latest Crop Progress report is issued Monday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), according to an AccuWeather analysis.Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and South Dakota are the four states significantly behind schedule and expected to remain that way, according to AccuWeather meteorologists who have been analyzing the data. Those four states combined produce nearly 40% of the corn in the U.S. If the weather continues a wet pattern through late May, consumer prices could go up this summer.
Iowa and Nebraska, the other two states among the top six corn producers, are only slightly behind, according to data from the USDA.
“The question will be how much farther it will fall behind the pace,” said AccuWeather senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “It’s about a week behind schedule right now. If it were to go to a week and a half or two weeks, that’s big news.”
Corn is vital to Americans and the U.S. economy; as The Washington Post noted, “The grain is so ubiquitous that it would take longer to list the foods that contain traces of it than to pinpoint the ones that don’t.”
It is grown in most U.S. states, but the bulk of production is centered in Northern and Midwestern states known as the U.S. Corn Belt. The U.S. is the largest producer of corn in the world with almost 100 million acres of land reserved for corn production.
Iowa and Illinois lead the way in corn production, combining for nearly one-third of the corn produced. However, rain throughout the early planting season, particularly in Illinois, has thwarted planting efforts.
“Most of the problems are because of consistent rains, plus there is also rain in the forecast,” Nicholls said. “Of the two key producing states, Iowa isn’t too bad, but Illinois is way off schedule.”
By this time of year, 43% of corn crops would already be planted in Illinois, according to the five-year average provided by the USDA. However, just 9% has been planted so far. Iowa averages 26% of crops planted at this point, and 21% has been planted so far.
Three of the other top corn producers are lagging behind this season so far. Minnesota (2% of corn crops planted by now compared to its five-year average of 24%), Indiana (2% compared to 17%) and South Dakota (0% compared to 17%) are also well off pace.
AccuWeather analysts don’t believe Monday’s Crop Progress will show much improvement.
"It was just too wet this week for there to be a national catch-up,” Nicholls said. “Most of the corn should be in the ground by May 15 in the South and by June 1 in the North. After those dates you start to risk losing significant yield.
“We think one of the weeks in late May will end up being drier, maybe at the end of the month,” Nicholls added. “But the week of May 6-12 looks pretty wet and May 13-19 doesn’t look good either.”
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/trouble-could-be-brewing-for-farmers-in-the-us-corn-belt/70008178
"I
beat the people from China. I win against China. You can win against China if
you're smart. But our people don't have a clue. We give state dinners to the
heads of China. I said, 'why are you doing state dinners for them? They're
ripping us left and right. Just take them to McDonald's and go back to the
negotiating table.'"
Donald
J. Trump, 2015.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Stickier than expected: Hydrogen binds to graphene in 10 femtoseconds
Bound for only ten quadrillionths of a second
Date:
May 3, 2019
Source:
University of Göttingen
Summary:
Graphene is an extraordinary material consisting of pure carbon just a single
atomic layer thick. It is extremely stable, strong and conductive. In
electronics, however, graphene has crucial disadvantages. It cannot be used as
a semiconductor, since it has no bandgap. Now researchers have produced an
''atomic scale movie'' showing how hydrogen atoms can chemically bind to
graphene to produce a bandgap in one of the fastest reactions ever studied.
The international research team bombarded graphene with hydrogen atoms.
"The hydrogen atom behaved quite differently than we expected," says
Alec Wodtke, head of the Department of Dynamics at Surfaces at the Max Planck
Institute (MPI) for Biophysical Chemistry and professor at the Institute of
Physical Chemistry at the University of Göttingen. "Instead of immediately
flying away, the hydrogen atoms 'stick' briefly to the carbon atoms and then
bounce off the surface. They form a transient chemical bond," Wodtke
reports. And something else surprised the scientists: The hydrogen atoms have a
lot of energy before they hit the graphene, but not much left when they fly
away.
Hydrogen atoms lose most of their energy on collision, but where does it
go?
To explain these surprising experimental observations, the Göttingen MPI
researcher Alexander Kandratsenka, in cooperation with colleagues at the
California Institute of Technology, developed theoretical methods, which they
simulated on the computer and then compared to their experiments. With these
theoretical simulations, which agree well with the experimental observations,
the researchers were able to reproduce the ultra-fast movements of atoms
forming the transient chemical bond. "This bond lasts for only about ten
femtoseconds -- ten quadrillionths of a second. This makes it one of the
fastest chemical reactions ever observed directly," Kandratsenka explains.
"During these ten femtoseconds, the hydrogen atom can transfer
almost all its energy to the carbon atoms of the graphene and it triggers a
sound wave that propagates outward from the point of the hydrogen atom impact
over the graphene surface, much like a stone that falls into water and triggers
a wave," says Kandratsenka. The sound wave contributes to the fact that
the hydrogen atom can bind more easily to the carbon atom than the scientists
had expected and previous models had predicted.
The results of the research team provide fundamentally new insights into
chemical bonding. In addition, they are of great interest to industry. Sticking
Hydrogen atoms to graphene can produce a bandgap, making it a useful
semiconductor and much more versatile in electronics.
More
Every
generation imagines itself to be more intelligent than the one that went before
it, and wiser than the one that comes after it.
George
Orwell.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down.
SP500: 2,946
+55 Up.
The S&P has
reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President
Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now
officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest
action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the
major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.
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