Thursday 30 May 2019

“Don’t Say We Didn’t Warn You,” China.


Baltic Dry Index. 1107 +25    Brent Crude 69.71

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe. 
Nuclear Trump Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

“Openness brings progress, shutting off brings backwardness”.

Wang Zhaoxing, a vice chairman of China’s banking and insurance regulator.

Run do not walk to the lifeboat stations! Over the summer the USA v China trade war is about to get very nasty. “The expression “don’t say we didn’t warn you” is generally only used by official Chinese media to warn rivals over major areas of disagreement, for example during a border dispute with India in 2017 and in 1978 before China invaded Vietnam.”  For more on that scroll down to Crooks Corner.

Which country can handle likely rising unemployment and a stock market crash better? Which country can absorb a coming debt default crisis better? Which trade war loser, loses least? Which country is desperate for a “win” before next year’s elections?

Below, global stock markets brace for a summer of follies. 

Asian markets dig deeper hole as selloff continues

Published: May 29, 2019 11:37 p.m. ET
Asian shares were mostly lower Thursday after another round of selling on Wall Street and investor worries about a trade war.

Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 NIK, -0.57%   dropped nearly 0.9% in morning trading. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 XJO, -0.83%   slipped 0.7% while South Korea’s Kospi 180721, +0.31%   edged up 0.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng HSI, -0.42%   was down 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, -0.83%   lost 0.8%. Stocks rose in Taiwan Y9999, +0.63%  but fell in Singapore STI, -0.78%  .

The latest market slide comes as investors worry that the trade war between the U.S. and China will derail global economic and corporate profit growth as it drags on with no sign of a resolution.

“The cracks in global equity markets threatened to grow wider still as relentless haven-buying of sovereign bonds overnight pushed key yields even lower and sent recession fears through stocks,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at Oanda.

“Asia is unlikely to feel much relief today either with both the Nikkei 225 and the ASX 200 down.”
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Dow slides more than 200 points as yields fall on worries about the economy

Stocks fell on Wednesday as bond yields declined again, triggering concerns about the economic outlook. Increasing trade tensions in the China-U.S. trade fight also weighed on markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 221.36 points  to 25,126.41 while the S&P 500 slid 0.7% to 2,783.02. The Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.8% 7,547.31. The Dow briefly fell more than 400 points as the 10-year Treasury note yield hit its low of the day.

The 10-year Treasury note yield fell to its lowest level since September 2017 before rebounding to about 2.26%. A portion of the yield curve further inverted as 3-month Treasury bills last yielded 2.36%, well above the 10-year rate. A yield curve inversion is seen by traders as a potential sign that a recession is in the horizon.

Bank shares fell along with yields. Bank of America and J.P. Morgan Chase both slid more than 0.2%. Citigroup dipped 0.1%. Shares of the three banks had dropped more than 1% earlier in the day.

The S&P 500 broke below 2,800, a key technical level watched by traders. The broad index also traded around its lowest level since late March.

“The topping pattern is crystal clear,” Frank Cappelleri, executive director at Instinet, wrote in a note. He added that other stock indexes across the globe were also showing topping patterns. “The equity advance through April was broad, which helped keep the uptrend intact. Now, with so many areas sporting bearish patterns like this, if one breaks, the odds are it will have company.”

Washington and Beijing have imposed tariffs on billions of dollars’ worth of one another’s goods since the start of 2018, battering financial markets and souring business and consumer sentiment.
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Taking aim at U.S., China says provoking trade disputes is 'naked economic terrorism'

May 30, 2019 / 3:01 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - Provoking trade disputes is “naked economic terrorism”, a senior Chinese diplomat said on Thursday, ramping up the rhetoric against the United States amid a bitter trade war that is showing no signs of ending soon.

Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated sharply earlier this month after the Trump administration accused China of having “reneged” on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices.

Washington later slapped additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 billion (£158.4 billion) of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate.

Speaking to reporters in Beijing, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Zhang Hanhui said China opposed the use of “big sticks” like trade sanctions, tariffs and protectionism.

“We oppose a trade war but are not afraid of a trade war. This kind of deliberately provoking trade disputes is naked economic terrorism, economic homicide, economic bullying,” Zhang said, when asked about the trade war with the United States.

Everyone loses in a trade war, he added, addressing a briefing on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Russia next week, where he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin and speak at a major investor forum in St Petersburg.

“This trade clash will have a serious negative effect on global economic development and recovery,” Zhang added.

“We will definitely properly deal with all external challenges, do our own thing well, develop our economy, and continue to raise the living standards of our two peoples,” he said, referring to China and Russia.

“At the same time, we have the confidence, resolve and ability to safeguard our country’s sovereignty, security, respect and security and development interests.”

From combative missives in state media and patriotic fervour on social media, to a mobilisation of ambassadors around the world to get its message out, China has intensified its criticism of Washington since the United States this month moved to increase tariffs on Chinese imports and blacklisted tech giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd.

On Thursday, a broadcaster from Chinese state television and a Fox Business host staged an unprecedented live debate about the China-U.S. frictions on the U.S. cable network.

---- On Thursday, the state-run China Daily newspaper said “it would be naive to think that China does not have other countermeasures apart from rare earths to hand”.

“As Chinese officials have reiterated, they have a ‘tool box’ large enough to fix any problem that may arise as trade tensions escalate, and they are ready to fight back ‘at any cost’,” it said in an editorial.
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Here’s the damage done to the stock market since Trump’s May 5 trade tweet

Published: May 29, 2019 6:03 p.m. ET
What’s our damage so far? 

The bullish dynamic for risk assets on Wall Street is beginning to unravel, clearly. Blame it on trade-war fears, at least partly sparked by a May 5 tweet from President Donald Trump, or peg it to worries that the global economy is facing a pronounced slowdown. In any case, major assets are reflecting deepening concerns about the durability of bull run for stocks, which will mark its 10th year in about a month.

Here is how the market is setting up:

---- The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, -0.79% stands down 7.6% from its record on May 3. Most market participants view a decline of at least 10% from a recent high as representing a correction.

---- The S&P 500 SPX, -0.69% is trading at or near its 200-day moving average, at 2,776.04, as of Wednesday afternoon trade. A breach below that point would represent a longer-term bearish momentum shift for the broad-market index. Market technicians tend to view moving averages as the demarcation between bullish and bearish momentum in an asset.
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In Europe news, paymaster Germany’s already buckling even before Juncker-Barnier’s attempt at a punitive Brexit. Nothing good lies ahead for the EUSSR on its present course.

German jobless total rises unexpectedly in May as economy slows

May 29, 2019 / 9:08 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - German unemployment rose unexpectedly in May for the first time in nearly two years, data showed on Wednesday, in a sign that a slowdown in Europe’s largest economy is spilling over to the labour market. 

The number of people out of work rose by 60,000 to 2.279 million in seasonally adjusted terms, according to data from the Federal Labour Office. That compared with the Reuters consensus forecast for a fall of 8,000.

The Labour Office said that the rise was mainly due to a special effect, but also to the slowing economy.

The seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 5.0%.

Rehn says ECB ready to react if slowdown persists

May 29, 2019 / 9:49 AM
LONDON (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is ready to reintroduce monetary support measures if required, policymaker Olli Rehn said on Wednesday, while hitting out at calls from Italy for it to guarantee countries’ debt.

Speaking at a Reuters Breakingviews event, Rehn said the ECB would discuss options at a policy meeting next week, when it will also have a new set of in-house economic forecasts at its disposal.

“We now have a soft patch in the economy and we are analyzing whether this is a genuine soft patch or a more of a long lasting economic slowdown,” Rehn said, blaming the U.S.-China trade war for further eroding confidence.

“If things turn south and we face a recession we are ready to use all instruments.”

While a euro zone recession was not currently the central scenario, an ample degree of policy stimulus remained appropriate, Rehn said.

---- Rehn, who also heads the Bank of Finland and is viewed as an outside bet to take over as ECB president when Mario Draghi steps down in October, repeated calls for a slightly more flexible policy framework for the bank.

Persistently low inflation across the developed world has prompted a debate about central bank policy and the effectiveness of inflation-targeting.

Rehn said he would not change the ECB’s inflation-focused mandate but would loosen its close-but-below 2% definition of price stability. “My view is that 2% is not a ceiling and inflation can deviate in both directions,” he said.

He rejected a call this week by Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini for the ECB to “guarantee” government debt in order to keep borrowing costs low.
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I could see that, if not actually disgruntled, the markets were far from being gruntled.

With apologies to P. G. Wodehouse.

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, that USA v China easy to win trade war again. With the USA going nuclear on Huawei and ZTE, China considers going nuclear back via rare earths. Mutual Assured Destruction lies ahead, with mass unemployment and social disorder to follow if we repeat 2008-2009.

Not to worry though, America’s Epoch Times says China doesn’t stand a chance in a trade war with America. But how does the world gain from a China back in the 1960s chaos?

China ready to hit back at U.S. with rare earths: newspapers

May 29, 2019 / 3:54 AM
BEIJING (Reuters) - China is ready to use rare earths to strike back in a trade war with the United States, Chinese newspapers warned on Wednesday in strongly worded commentaries on a move that would escalate tensions between the world’s two largest economies.

President Xi Jinping’s visit to a rare earths plant last week had sparked speculation that China would use its dominant position as an exporter of rare earths to the United States as leverage in the trade war. 

Rare earths are a group of 17 chemical elements used in everything from high-tech consumer electronics to military equipment. The prospect that their value could soar as a result of the trade war caused sharp increases in the share prices of producers, including the company visited by Xi.

While China has so far not explicitly said it would restrict rare earths sales to the United States, Chinese media has strongly implied this will happen.

In a commentary headlined “United States, don’t underestimate China’s ability to strike back”, the official People’s Daily noted the United States’ “uncomfortable” dependence on rare earths from China.

“Will rare earths become a counter weapon for China to hit back against the pressure the United States has put on for no reason at all? The answer is no mystery,” it said.

“Undoubtedly, the U.S. side wants to use the products made by China’s exported rare earths to counter and suppress China’s development. The Chinese people will never accept this!” the ruling Communist Party newspaper added.

“We advise the U.S. side not to underestimate the Chinese side’s ability to safeguard its development rights and interests. Don’t say we didn’t warn you!”

The expression “don’t say we didn’t warn you” is generally only used by official Chinese media to warn rivals over major areas of disagreement, for example during a border dispute with India in 2017 and in 1978 before China invaded Vietnam.

In its own editorial on Wednesday, sister paper the Global Times said an export ban on rare earths “is a powerful weapon if used in the China-U.S. trade war.”

“Nevertheless, China will mainly use it for defense,” it added, noting that while China might incur losses from a ban on exports, the United States would suffer more.

---- Chinese trade experts say if Beijing moves forward with new restrictions on rare earth exports to the United States, it will likely follow Washington’s example and use national security as a justification.
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The Chinese Regime Stands No Chance in US Trade War

By Joshua Philipp, The Epoch Times
May 27, 2019 Updated: May 28, 2019
The real “trade war” between the United States and the Chinese regime is just starting. Right now, the playing field is merely being laid out in a way that allows companies to compete on fairer grounds, with honest businesses able to win through rule of law.

The United States has begun to fight back against the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) decades-old trade war of currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, and policies that made it nearly impossible for foreign companies to compete with Chinese companies. In 2018, the U.S. trade deficit with China was $419 billion, and until recently, it didn’t appear this would change.

For the Chinese regime, trade policy is war. Trade has been regarded even publicly as a method to occupy and overtake the United States through nonmilitary means. According to the CCP’s “Unrestricted Warfare” doctrine, which uses financial warfare, trade warfare, and other nonmilitary systems to achieve dominance, “There is now no domain which warfare cannot use, and there is almost no domain which does not have warfare’s offensive pattern.”
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Alan Schwartz, CEO Bear Stearns, March 12, 2008. Bust March 16, 2008.
Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Centrica launches solar and battery products to power EV switchover

Energy giant to install on-site solar and batteries to boost companies' EV charging infrastructure
Businesses will be able to install solar panels and battery banks to boost their infrastructure for charging electric vehicles, under a new offer launched today by Centrica. 

The energy giant said its offer will enable businesses - from shopping centres to transport hubs - to meet the demands of EV charging points with power generated on site.

Many businesses are keen to accelerate their transition to electric vehicles, but without costly grid upgrades will struggle to charge more than one or two vehicles at once. 

Centrica's own research found that while 75 per cent of businesses are planning to introduce EVs into their fleet, less than half of those have considered how doing so could impact their energy demand.

"This is a very real issue as we're increasingly hearing that the complexity of implementing the infrastructure that surrounds EV is proving to be a barrier to customers," a spokeswoman explained. 
"For example, we've had customers come to us and ask for help because they'd planned to install 20 charging points only to find that they don't have a big enough grid connection to cope with that additional power demand. So they're effectively falling at the first hurdle."

The firm's new product offers include installing solar panels and battery storage on business premises, as well as the charge points themselves. This would help firms invest in EV infrastructure while bypassing the need for grid improvements, according to Centrica. 

"We believe this is the most comprehensive commercial EV offer in the UK to date, giving businesses in the ability to future-proof against the increased power requirements of the electrification of their fleets," the spokeswoman added. 

Under pressure to tackle air pollution, the UK government has committed to banning sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 2040 - while the Committee on Climate Change has called for this to be brought forward to 2035.

Currently, EVs account for less than one per cent of new sales. Transitioning to a fully electric fleet in the UK could require 18GW of additional power capacity by 2050, according to the National Grid, which suggests that EVs could increase Britain's peak power demand by a third unless measures are taken to balance the demand peaks using smart technologies.

Centrica, which owns British Gas and has installed over 17,000 charging points since 2012, argued localised generation could be key to meeting heightened power demand.

"We believe distributed energy technologies will be key to supporting the cost-effective roll out of EVs, reducing the need for costly grid upgrades and new centralised generation capacity," said Jorge Pikunic, global managing director for Centrica Business Solutions. "The adoption of electric vehicles is no longer a question for tomorrow. For businesses, the transition to EV is a big opportunity to become cleaner, more sustainable and more efficient."


George Orwell.

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April

DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down. SP500: 2,946 +55 Up.  

The S&P has reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.

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