Not
being an accountant, let alone a forensic accountant, I’m not qualified to
opine, but as a service to LIR readers, this link raises enough red flags to
seriously worry that it is. If it is, will the Chinese Communist Party pickup
the pieces and bailout the foreign shareholders. Will they prosecute the
guilty?
If
BABA blows up, what about the rest of the market? How close to The Big Bang are
we?
BABA:...an "Earnings Call" without discussing "Earnings"
Today's call was a truly historic moment in
the evolution of alleged global financial fraud, both perpetrated by the CPC on
US investors and fully supported, through their absurd "analyst"
questions, by our industry experts: JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman,
Merrill, Bank of America, Barclays, Citi, HSBC, RBC Capital, Deutsche Bank,
etc. Here are the materials:
Webcast:
https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/8zqz2d4o
Presentation:
https://www.alibabagroup.com/en/ir/presentations/pre190515.pdf
Press Release:
https://www.alibabagroup.com/en/news/press_pdf/p190515.pdf
Filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000110465919029738/a19-10031_1ex99d1.htm
Alibaba management (Joe, Daniel, Maggie and Robert) and their "analysts" spent much of the hour collectively congratulating themselves on the greatness of their fake 51% revenue growth and their unverifiable, fake, GMV, which has now ballooned to US$853 Billion. This "ecosystem" GMV, due to these phenomenal, dubious growth rates, is now roughly the same size as the Global GMV of both Amazon ($277 Billion) and Walmart ($625 Billion including estimated Third Party GMV) combined. Alibaba GMV has increased roughly ten fold since 2012. They are on pace to Reach $1 Trillion by next year. Alibaba's GMV sold, according to management, has quickly grown to roughly the same as Switzerland's GDP, with about the same level of opacity. Miraculous.....perhaps even unbelievable, to say the least.
Webcast:
https://edge.media-server.com/m6/p/8zqz2d4o
Presentation:
https://www.alibabagroup.com/en/ir/presentations/pre190515.pdf
Press Release:
https://www.alibabagroup.com/en/news/press_pdf/p190515.pdf
Filing:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1577552/000110465919029738/a19-10031_1ex99d1.htm
Alibaba management (Joe, Daniel, Maggie and Robert) and their "analysts" spent much of the hour collectively congratulating themselves on the greatness of their fake 51% revenue growth and their unverifiable, fake, GMV, which has now ballooned to US$853 Billion. This "ecosystem" GMV, due to these phenomenal, dubious growth rates, is now roughly the same size as the Global GMV of both Amazon ($277 Billion) and Walmart ($625 Billion including estimated Third Party GMV) combined. Alibaba GMV has increased roughly ten fold since 2012. They are on pace to Reach $1 Trillion by next year. Alibaba's GMV sold, according to management, has quickly grown to roughly the same as Switzerland's GDP, with about the same level of opacity. Miraculous.....perhaps even unbelievable, to say the least.
I don't want
to belabor the absurdity of the analyst discussion by repeating the irrelevant,
odd, focus-less Q&A (feel free to listen to it on your own if you have the
stomach for it.) To illustrate the madness, it would be easier to discuss
what was NOT covered in the presentation....so...here goes:
The Appropriate Earnings Call Questions, which I might expect a real analyst to ask, are highlighted in RED below.
The Appropriate Earnings Call Questions, which I might expect a real analyst to ask, are highlighted in RED below.
What the "Analysts" didn't ask about....
1.) First, Joe gave a 10 minute dissertation, on the "elephant in the
room". When I first heard that I thought "Finally...Joe is gong
to come clean and admit that Alibaba is actually ground zero on the CPC's full
frontal assault on the Western Financial System!", but I was wrong, he
went into some silliness about how Alibaba was perfectly positioned to survive
a trade war, a global recession, a currency war and, like the financial
cockroach it is, anything up to and probably including a nuclear winter.
I'm sure specifics will be forthcoming in future "earnings" calls.
2.) Speaking of "earnings" there was not one question, comment or slide in the deck that mentioned earnings. NOT ONE....an entire hour of fluff..... and "earnings" wasn't discussed, described, commented on or mentioned. This is odd for an "earnings" call....don't you think? When we look at the press release, we can understand why. On page 40 there is a $2.974 Billion accounting "Gain on the revaluation of assets" which was roughly equal to net income for the quarter. i.e.) If we exclude this gain, the business had no earnings from operations. I guess that would explain the lack of discussion of same. Why talk about something that doesn't exist? Am I right?
There's limited discussion in the documentation (including the 6-K) as to what this gigantic gain was attributable to....here's the language:
2.) Speaking of "earnings" there was not one question, comment or slide in the deck that mentioned earnings. NOT ONE....an entire hour of fluff..... and "earnings" wasn't discussed, described, commented on or mentioned. This is odd for an "earnings" call....don't you think? When we look at the press release, we can understand why. On page 40 there is a $2.974 Billion accounting "Gain on the revaluation of assets" which was roughly equal to net income for the quarter. i.e.) If we exclude this gain, the business had no earnings from operations. I guess that would explain the lack of discussion of same. Why talk about something that doesn't exist? Am I right?
There's limited discussion in the documentation (including the 6-K) as to what this gigantic gain was attributable to....here's the language:
Interest and investment income, net in the
quarter ended March 31, 2019 was RMB18,665 million (US$2,781 million), which
mainly included net gains arising from the change in fair value of listed
equity investments and a non-cash gain of RMB5,825 million (US$868 million)
arising from the revaluation of our previously held equity interest in Alibaba
Pictures when we obtained control in March 2019. The above-mentioned gains were
excluded from our non-GAAP net income.
Note:
Alibaba pictures was actually written down by US$2.888 Billion on last years 20-F, so now that they have
obtained a whopping 51% control they are writing it back up and booking the
gain. There was also no calculation as to the basis and the gain presented.
Moreover, per the above, there's
another $1.913 Billion in valuation gains not described or identified in the
filings. These gains are in addition to the $2.4 Billion write-up they
took last quarter (ended 12/31/18). The total valuation/accounting gains
booked for the year amounted to $7.031 Billion, which was included in their Net
Income of $11.955 Billion. i.e.) Most of Alibaba's "income" is
generated by unidentified Accounting/Asset write-ups, not from actual
"business".
Appropriate Earnings Call Question: "Could you please provide a detailed schedule of the $7.031 Billion "Revaluation Gain" as well as basis and current carrying value calculations for the related assets?"
Appropriate Earnings Call Question: "Could you please provide a detailed schedule of the $7.031 Billion "Revaluation Gain" as well as basis and current carrying value calculations for the related assets?"
----My crystal clear message to the analysts
who were on the call is, when this eventually blows up, and there's no question
that it will, you have to understand that the "Sorry I'm just a
dumb-ass" defense won't work anymore. The times, they are a
changin'.
You analysts (yes I'm speaking directly to you now) are all highly educated, smart, professional people. You are experts, or at least you are supposed to be, and you, and your respective employers are held to a much higher standard than the rest of the investing world and blogosphere. It's assumed by naive American Investors that you know exactly what you are doing. Your endorsement means everything. Unfortunately, in this particular case, and many others, it looks like you are accepting a nice paycheck to do exactly what you are told by the Chinese Communist Party. You are also committing, aiding and abetting securities fraud. When you see the accounting travesties and inconsistencies described above, your job is to investigate them, ask tough questions, and if you find the explanations provided by management to be unsatisfactory, you must resign from the account. Your inaction, congratulatory "we" tone and your tacit endorsement of this charade makes you an accessory, not an unwitting pawn. You and your employers have significant legal and political liability for what's about to happen. There will be no escaping it this time.
To your probable surprise and eventual chagrin, once this implodes, the political environment in America will be such that you will be hunted down, like the sweet, smiling, CPC controlled puppy-dogs you are and brought to justice for your complicity. This time, no expense will be spared and no stones will be left un-turned. This time it is indeed different. Bankers, analysts and anyone perceived to have been responsible for this destruction will be figuratively hung in the public square. Your nice, sweet, friendly, cheery dispositions and professional demeanor, popularity and Facebook friends won't save you this time. You won't be passing go. You won't be collecting $200. You will be going to jail, directly to jail. Your families and friends will miss you, but yours is the price that must be paid to put an end to this madness.
You and your employers are indeed responsible and culpable:
Alex Yao – J.P. Morgan
Grace Chen – Morgan Stanley
Piyush Mubayi – Goldman Sachs
Eddie Leung – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Gregory Zhao – Barclays
Alicia Yap – Citigroup
Binnie Wong – HSBC
Zachary Schwartzman – RBC Capital Markets
Han Joon Kim – Deutsche Bank
Also, I forgot to ask, have you met my good friend RICO? He's fair, honest and bipartisan, but he can get a little cranky, so you might want to be careful around him.
You analysts (yes I'm speaking directly to you now) are all highly educated, smart, professional people. You are experts, or at least you are supposed to be, and you, and your respective employers are held to a much higher standard than the rest of the investing world and blogosphere. It's assumed by naive American Investors that you know exactly what you are doing. Your endorsement means everything. Unfortunately, in this particular case, and many others, it looks like you are accepting a nice paycheck to do exactly what you are told by the Chinese Communist Party. You are also committing, aiding and abetting securities fraud. When you see the accounting travesties and inconsistencies described above, your job is to investigate them, ask tough questions, and if you find the explanations provided by management to be unsatisfactory, you must resign from the account. Your inaction, congratulatory "we" tone and your tacit endorsement of this charade makes you an accessory, not an unwitting pawn. You and your employers have significant legal and political liability for what's about to happen. There will be no escaping it this time.
To your probable surprise and eventual chagrin, once this implodes, the political environment in America will be such that you will be hunted down, like the sweet, smiling, CPC controlled puppy-dogs you are and brought to justice for your complicity. This time, no expense will be spared and no stones will be left un-turned. This time it is indeed different. Bankers, analysts and anyone perceived to have been responsible for this destruction will be figuratively hung in the public square. Your nice, sweet, friendly, cheery dispositions and professional demeanor, popularity and Facebook friends won't save you this time. You won't be passing go. You won't be collecting $200. You will be going to jail, directly to jail. Your families and friends will miss you, but yours is the price that must be paid to put an end to this madness.
You and your employers are indeed responsible and culpable:
Alex Yao – J.P. Morgan
Grace Chen – Morgan Stanley
Piyush Mubayi – Goldman Sachs
Eddie Leung – Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Gregory Zhao – Barclays
Alicia Yap – Citigroup
Binnie Wong – HSBC
Zachary Schwartzman – RBC Capital Markets
Han Joon Kim – Deutsche Bank
Also, I forgot to ask, have you met my good friend RICO? He's fair, honest and bipartisan, but he can get a little cranky, so you might want to be careful around him.
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