Baltic Dry Index. 1032
+01 Brent
Crude 70.48
Never ending Brexit
now October 31, maybe.
Day 154 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Everyone’s “optimistic.”
USA v EU trade war 12
days away? No one optimistic.
“Thus, under the gold standard, a free banking system stands as
the protector of an economy’s stability and balanced growth. When gold is
accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free
international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and
the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the
dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all
are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as
one …”
Alan Greenspan. 1966.
Today, while we await
the US employment figures and the final results of yesterday’s local election
voting in England, when the next global recession hits is America about to go
all in socialist and adopt Modern Monetary Theory, aka financial
communism? It’s inevitable, says Ray
Dalio, the man running the world’s biggest hedge fund, and he probably knows
what he’s talking about.
But with the fiat US
dollar by far the world’s largest reserve currency, were that to happen it
effectively steals for America, from the entire rest of the world.
Everyone now
needs a little cushion of some fully paid up, physical gold and silver. The rest of the world are unlikely to continue
using fiat dollars as their main reserve currency, if Uncle Scam goes all in on
MMT in the next financial crisis that lies shortly ahead.
Asian markets calm as investors await U.S. jobs report
May 3, 2019 / 2:10
AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian share markets were subdued on Friday amid thin holiday trade although the
dollar found support as investors pared expectations for a U.S. rate cut this
year while oil prices loitered near one-month lows on oversupply fears.
Australia’s benchmark index was last up 0.2 percent, New Zealand shares
were off 0.5 percent while South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.3 percent. Trading
volumes were light across Asia with markets in China and Japan still closed for
holidays.
Overnight on Wall Street, major indices gave up initial gains and closed
in the red, weighed down by energy shares.
World stocks have rallied hard this year - the S&P 500 has climbed
more than 16 percent so far in 2019 - but further gains will be hard to come
by, analysts at Capital Economics said.
“We are more downbeat on the outlook for the global economy. We forecast
that GDP growth in advanced economies will slow from 2.2 percent in 2018 to
just 1.0 percent in 2020,” they said.
“As such, we are of the view that investors are still too optimistic
about the outlook for earnings growth. As earnings disappoint, we think that
stock markets will drop around the world.”
Capital Economics forecast the S&P 500 would drop to 2,300 points by
Christmas from current levels of just under 2,900.
Investors await U.S. employment figures due later in the day, which is
forecast to show 185,000 net new jobs were added in April and the unemployment
rate steady at 3.8 percent.
More
Head of world’s largest hedge fund says adoption of unorthodox monetary policy is ‘inevitable’
By Mark DeCambre
Published: May 2, 2019 5:01 p.m. ET
It has been referred to by some business experts and
economists as weird science, “garbage”
and “nonsense,”
but Ray Dalio says that unconventional monetary policies may be required as
traditional policy stumbles. In a Thursday blog post on LinkedIn, Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates LP, the world’s biggest hedge fund, said the ineffectiveness of current monetary policy alone, including cutting interest rates or offering cheap financing to a select few, will make some version of strategies like so-called Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), or what he refers to as Monetary Policy 3 (MP3), more tenable options in the future.
“Obviously, normal fiscal policy is usually the way we handle those sorts of investments. But the problem with relying on fiscal policies in a downturn (besides them being highly politically charged) is that it is slow to respond: it has long lead times, you have to make programs, concerns over deficits can make it more challenging politically to pass fiscal stimulus, etc.,” Dalio said.
“It is inevitable that this shift will happen because it is
inevitable that central bankers will want to ease when interest rates are
pinned at 0% and when quantitative easing will be ineffective in achieving the
goal,” he wrote.
Proponents of MMT argue that a government that borrows in its own
currency doesn’t need to worry about running up a deficit (as long as inflation
isn’t running out of control) because it controls the money-printing press.
Billionaire Dalio makes the case that traditional policies have widened
the gap between the poor and the wealthy rather than helping to stimulate
growth across socioeconomic classes, among other aforementioned foibles. The
hedge-fund founder believes that an alternative to MMT, so-called MP3, a
coordinated one-two punch of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus, also could
be used to address weakness in economic polices.
More
Trailblazing stock-market bull says investors need to ‘get into their heads’ that time of ‘monetary policy providing nothing but stimulus is over’
By Mark
DeCambre Published: May 2, 2019
12:59 p.m. ET
Abby Joseph
Cohen, advisory director and senior investment strategist at Goldman Sachs, has
some choice words for stock-market bulls hoping for an unfettered run to record
heights on the back of an easy-money-oriented Federal Reserve.
The Wall Street heavyweight’s comments come after the Fed Wednesday afternoon held benchmark rates in check at a range between 2.25% and 2.50%, but indicated that stubbornly low inflation, holding below the central bank’s 2% target, is likely to pickup, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, referring to the current state of inflation as “transitory.”
More
Euro-Area Factory Slump Eases in April as Italy Exceeds Estimate
By Piotr Skolimowski
2 May 2019, 09:00 BST Updated on 2 May 2019, 09:53
BST
The euro area’s manufacturing slump showed tentative improvement in
April as Italy’s contraction slowed markedly and French industry stopped
shrinking.
A Purchasing Managers’ Index came in at 47.9 in April, up from
March and a touch above both economists’ estimates and a previous reading for
the month. It was still below the 50 level that would indicate expansion.
The
euro rallied as the report from Italian purchasing managers exceeded estimates
amid improvement in new export orders and hiring. Industry there is still
shrinking though, and the gauge for factory output for the 19-nation region is
signaling contraction at a quarterly rate of 1 percent, a major drag on an
economy increasingly sustained by services.
“It
remains too early to call a turning point,” said Chris Williamson, an economist
at IHS Markit. This suggests “that the manufacturing downturn will persist in
the coming months.”
More
“Gold is a currency. It is
still, by all evidence, a premier currency, where no fiat currency, including
the dollar, can match it.”
Alan
Greenspan 2014.
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, Tesla again. How much longer can a greater fool financing game go
on?
Why Tesla is offering rock-bottom solar panel prices
New York (CNN Business)Tesla's solar ambitions sometimes feel like they've been lost in the
shuffle as Elon Musk focuses on building electric cars, devising robo-taxis and fighting with the SEC.
While
Tesla's electric vehicles are gaining popularity, its solar business has been
in retreat in an ultra-competitive market. Tesla lost its crown as America's
leading rooftop solar installer in 2018, falling behind lesser-known rival
Sunrun (RUN),
according to research firm Wood Mackenzie.
Now
Musk is trying to jump-start Tesla's solar business with a simple strategy:
Cutting costs. Sharply. Tesla has started selling solar panels and equipment
for up to 41% less than the national average.
"Tesla
is likely hoping to use low prices to drive out competition and gain market
share," said Timothy Fox, vice president and research analyst at Clearview
Energy Partners, an energy research firm.
To make the cost cuts work, Tesla has
standardized systems and begun to require customers to order solar panels
online, the
company told The New York Times this week. By stopping
door-to-door sales, Tesla is trying to slash so-called "soft" costs
that play a significant role driving up the price tag on solar panels.
A
Tesla spokesperson confirmed the changes reported by the Times. The new prices
have been posted on Tesla's website. Tesla announced last
fall that price cuts were coming.
But
some observers on Wall Street are skeptical that Tesla can pull off the
strategy without eating into its already-shrinking
bottom line. Profit margins in the solar industry are
razor-thin.
"It
feels like a half-court shot," said Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush
Securities who recently downgraded his rating on Tesla.
‘Math Doesn’t Lie’: Musk Can’t Dodge Tesla Cash Woes Any Longer
Despite his brash talk and disdain of Wall Street, Elon Musk still hasn’t figured out how to profitably mass-produce electric cars.By Molly Smith 1 May 2019, 11:00 BST Updated on 1 May 2019, 17:15 BST
Elon Musk said he was through asking Wall Street for money.
In spite of what the Tesla Inc. analysts said, Musk has in the past year insisted Model 3 production was finally on track, positive cash flow was just a quarter away and the haters would pay dearly for suggesting it had trouble paying its bills. He even famously tweeted that Tesla was done with public capital markets altogether.
So what did Musk tell investors last week after Tesla reported yet another quarter of disappointing earnings? His cash-strapped, electric-car company just might need to ask Wall Street for more money.
It’s
a striking turnabout for Tesla’s chief executive officer, who’s never been one
to back down from his critics. Musk noted additional capital makes sense in
light of his ambitious new plan to develop a fleet of autonomous robotaxis (not
to mention forays into insurance,
chip-making, and even “sentient”
leaf blowers). But in some ways, it’s a tacit
admission that for all the brash talk and easy confidence Musk has exuded about
Tesla’s future, he still hasn’t figured
out
how to profitably mass-produce its cars.
“Musk and Tesla looked in the mirror and realized they needed to change their tune a little on the capital raise because the math doesn’t lie,” says Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities. “Based on the profitability trajectory and what we saw in the first quarter, the writing is on the wall.”
So for Ives and many other analysts like him, the more pertinent question now isn’t whether Tesla will tap the markets for fresh capital. It is who’s going to be willing to provide the financing — and how expensive will it be.
In response to a question about the need to secure more funding, Musk acknowledged on last week’s earnings call that “there is merit to the idea of raising capital at this point.” That came after Tesla reported a record decline in deliveries, which combined with Tesla’s biggest-ever debt payment, depleted its cash reserve to a three-year low of $2.2 billion.
More
“If the
dollar or any other fiat currency were universally acceptable at all times,
central banks would see no need to hold any gold. The fact that they do
indicates that such currencies are not a universal substitute. Of the 30
advanced countries that report to the International Monetary Fund, only four
hold no gold as part of their reserve balances.”
Alan
Greenspan. 2014.
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
Nanomaterials mimicking natural enzymes with superior catalytic activity and selectivity
Date:
April 30, 2019
Source:
The Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST)
Summary:
A research team doped nitrogen and boron into graphene to selectively increase
peroxidase-like activity and succeeded in synthesizing a peroxidase-mimicking
nanozyme with a low cost and superior catalytic activity. These nanomaterials
can be applied for early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.
Enzymes are the main catalysts in our body and are widely used in
bioassays. In particular, peroxidase, which oxidizes transparent colorimetric
substrates to become a colored product in the presence of hydrogen peroxide, is
the most common enzyme that is used in colorimetric bioassays.
However, natural enzymes consisting of proteins are unstable against
temperature and pH, hard to synthesize, and costly. Nanozymes, on the other
hand, do not consist of proteins, meaning the disadvantages of enzymes can be
overcome with their robustness and high productivity. In contrast, most
nanonzymes do not have selectivity; for example, peroxidase-mimicking nanozymes
demonstrate oxidase-like activity that oxidizes colorimetric substrates in the
absence of hydrogen peroxide, which keeps them away from precisely detecting
the target materials, such as hydrogen peroxide.
Professor Jinwoo Lee from the Department of Chemical and Biomolecular
Engineering and his team were able to synthesize a peroxidase-mimicking nanozyme
with superior catalytic activity and selectivity toward hydrogen peroxide.
Co-doping of nitrogen and boron into graphene, which has negligible
peroxidase-like activity, selectively increased the peroxidase-like activity
without oxidase-like activity to accurately mimic the nature peroxidase and has
become a powerful candidate to replace the peroxidase.
The experimental results were also verified with computational
chemistry. The nitrogen and boron co-doped graphene was also applied to the
colorimetric detection of acetylcholine, which is an important neurotransmitter
and successfully detected the acetylcholine even better than the nature
peroxidase.
Professor Lee said, "We began to study nanozymes due to their
potential for replacing existing enzymes. Through this study, we have secured
core technologies to synthesize nanozymes that have high enzyme activity along
with selectivity. We believe that they can be applied to effectively detect
acetylcholine for quickly diagnosing Alzheimer's disease.
Another weekend and another bank holiday weekend here in the
UK. A weekend here in the UK for the political parties to try to make sense of
the local election results. A weekend for the EUSSR to decide if they really
want UK MEPs in the next European Parliament. A weekend for the rest of the
world to start pondering a US global reserve currency, now seriously flirting
with Modern Monetary Theory as a response to the next global recession.
Probably why so many Asian central banks are now stockpiling and hoarding gold.
Have a great weekend everyone.
“Helicopter Money” v Gold.
Let us suppose now that one day a helicopter flies over this community and drops an additional $1,000 in bills from the sky, which is, of course, hastily collected by members of the community. Let us suppose further that everyone is convinced that this is a unique event which will never be repeated.
Milton Friedman. The “Chicago School” economist who coined the term Helicopter Money in 1969. “The Optimum Quantity of Money.”
We are living in very dangerous times for our money. Since August 1971, all money everywhere has been unbacked fiat money, communist money, irredeemable into anything else but yet more dangerous fiat money. After 45 years on fiat money, our intensely interrelated world now finds itself on the brink of a new financial crisis, which some are proposing to address by turning to helicopter money to save the system. But first, an over view of where we have arrived.
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down.
SP500: 2,946
+55 Up.
The S&P has
reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President
Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now
officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest
action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the
major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.
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