Baltic Dry Index. 940
+04 Brent
Crude 69.79
Never ending Brexit
now October 31st, maybe.
Day 160 of the
never-ending USA v China trade talks. Trump Tariffs Midnight!
USA v EU trade war 6
days away? No one optimistic.
“They're funny things, Accidents. You never have them till
you're having them.”
The
House at Trump Corner.
Well we are less than
one day away from Trump’s trade war with China going nuclear. At least
according To President Trump. At 12:01 AM tomorrow, according to Trump, US
tariffs on China jump from 10 percent to 25 percent and get imposed on an
additional 325 billion of Chinese goods exported to the USA. China says if it
happens they will retaliate.
So today, do we bet
on red in stocks that it happens, or black in stocks that somehow it doesn’t
happen? I don’t know either, all I know
is that this is no way to be running a global economy that’s already
dangerously near stall speed. But if I chose to bet on 50:50 outcomes, I’d be
betting on red. Recession by year end if 25 percent nuclear tariffs happen.
So what could
possibly go wrong? Accidents are funny things. You never have them till you’re
having them, to misquote someone at Boeing or somewhere.
U.S. Stock Futures Drop After Trump Says China ‘Broke the Deal’
By Jackie Edwards and Min Jeong Lee
Updated on 9 May 2019, 05:09 BST
U.S. stock-index futures slid after President Donald Trump said China
“broke the deal” that he was negotiating on trade, days after he threatened to
raise tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese imports.
Futures contracts on the S&P 500 expiring in June fell as much as
0.7% after Trump made comments on trade talks at a campaign rally Wednesday in
Panama City Beach, Florida. Dow Jones Industrial Average contracts also dropped
as much as 0.7%, while those on the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8%.
Trump’s latest comments further clouded the outlook for negotiations
that were already strained by U.S. plans to lift tariffs on $200 billion of
Chinese goods to 25% from 10% and China’s threats of retaliation. The president
noted that top Chinese trade negotiator Liu He was traveling to Washington for
further talks. “They come in tomorrow and whatever happens, don’t worry about
it. It will work out. It always does,” he said.
U.S. stocks have
had a volatile trading week with three straight days of losses as tensions
between the world’s two largest economies escalated. The S&P 500 whipsawed
and eventually closed 0.2% lower Wednesday in a headline-driven market amid the
conflicting messages on trade talks.
The three-day decline of 2.3% puts the market on course for its worst week
since the Christmas Eve meltdown.
More
Asia shares sink to six-week low as clock ticks toward U.S. tariff hike on Chinese goods
May 9, 2019 / 2:33
AM
SYDNEY (Reuters) -
Asian shares fell to six-week lows on Thursday as tensions rose ahead of last
ditch U.S.-China trade talks which could sharply alter the direction of the
global economy.
Investors were on tenterhooks as they waited to see if Chinese Vice
Premier Liu He can salvage a trade deal during two days of negotiations in
Washington on Thursday and Friday, after U.S. officials said Beijing had
backtracked on earlier commitments.
An agreement could avert a sharp increase in U.S. tariffs on Chinese
goods that President Donald Trump has threatened to impose on Friday, which
Beijing has threatened to retaliate against in what would be major escalations
in the countries’ bruising trade war.
“If Trump’s threat becomes reality, it will be a game changer for the
global economy. This is the worst-case scenario we modeled last year that
resulted in recession conditions in the United States, a rapid reduction of
growth in China, and slower global trade,” said Steve Cochrane, chief APAC
economist at Moody’s Analytics in Singapore.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1 percent
to its lowest level since March 28.
Stocks extended earlier losses in Asian trade after U.S. President
Donald Trump told a rally of supporters that China had “broke the deal” and
would be paying for it.
Chinese shares tumbled further and were a hair away from 2-1/2-month
lows marked on Wednesday. The benchmark Shanghai Composite slid 1.1 percent and
the blue-chip CSI 300 fell 1.5 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 1.6
percent.
Japan’s Nikkei average shed 1.2 percent to a five-week low, while South
Korea’s KOSPI fell 1.1 percent and the Australian benchmark added 0.4 percent.
Trump has threatened to raise tariffs to 25 percent from 10 percent on
$200 billion worth of Chinese imports at 12:01 a.m. ET (0401GMT) on Friday.
Beijing has vowed to retaliate, without giving details.
More
Trump’s comments apparently emboldened China to take harder line on trade talks
By Lingling
Wei and Bob
Davis Published: May 8, 2019 10:02
p.m. ET
Trump’s attacks on Fed chief Powell interpreted as weakness
The new hard line taken by China in trade talks — surprising the White House and threatening to derail negotiations — came after Beijing interpreted recent statements and actions by President Trump as a sign the U.S. was ready to make concessions, said people familiar with the thinking of the Chinese side.High-level negotiations are scheduled to resume Thursday in Washington, but the expectations and the stakes have changed significantly. A week ago, the assumption was that negotiators would be closing the deal. Now, they are trying to keep it from collapsing.
Read: Trump on trade talks with China: ‘They broke the deal’
The hardened battle lines were prompted by Beijing’s decision to take a more aggressive stance in negotiations, according to the people following the talks. They said Beijing was emboldened by the perception that the U.S. was ready to compromise. In particular, these people said, Trump’s hectoring of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates was seen in Beijing as evidence that the president thought the U.S. economy was more fragile than he claimed.
Beijing was further encouraged by Trump’s frequent claim of friendship with Chinese President Xi Jinping and by Trump’s praise for Chinese Vice Premier Liu He for pledging to buy more U.S. soybeans.
An expanded version of this report appears on WSJ.com.
In other lesser news,
more USA Iran sanctions, banksters, more unicorns disappear, Canada’s Huawei’s
hostage. Can war with Iran be far away? Is Trump following FDR’s game-plan with
Japan?
U.S. targets Iran's metals for sanctions, Tehran relaxes nuclear deal compliance
May 8, 2019 / 7:12
AM
WASHINGTON/LONDON
(Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday imposed new sanctions on
Iran, targeting revenue from its exports of industrial metals, the latest salvo
in tensions between Washington and Tehran over a 2015 international accord
curbing the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme.
Iran had announced hours earlier that it was relaxing some restrictions
on its nuclear programme, steps that stopped short of violating the deal with
world powers for now, but threatening more action if countries do not shield it
from U.S. sanctions.
An executive order issued by Trump covers Iran’s iron, steel, aluminium,
and copper sectors, the government’s largest non-petroleum-related sources of
export revenue and 10 percent of its export economy, a White House statement
said.
“Tehran can expect further actions unless it fundamentally alters its
conduct,” Trump said.
The administration says the nuclear deal, negotiated by Trump’s
predecessor Barack Obama, was flawed as it is not permanent, does not address
Iran’s ballistic missile programme and does not punish it for waging proxy wars
in the Middle East.
More
Ten former Danske Bank executives charged over Estonia case: Berlingske
May 8, 2019 /
1:27 PM
COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Danish prosecutors have charged 10 former
executives of Danske Bank over their suspected involvement in one of the
world’s biggest money laundering scandals, newspaper Berlingske reported on
Wednesday citing unnamed sources.
Former chief executive Thomas Borgen, who stepped down last October, was
among the 10 persons charged, Berlingske said.
Danske Bank is under investigation regarding some 200 billion euros
($224 billion) in suspicious transactions that passed through its Estonian
branch between 2007 and 2015.
The Danish state prosecutor for economic crime declined to comment.
More than $40 million in bitcoin stolen in hack of world’s biggest cryptocurrency exchange
By Steven
Russolillo Published: May 8, 2019
3:45 a.m. ET
The theft offers another example of the vulnerability
facing cryptocurrencies and the venues where investors trade them. Yet the
price of bitcoin BTCUSD,
-0.49% and other digital
currencies barely budged after the robbery was disclosed Wednesday morning in
Asia.Binance said it discovered Tuesday that 7,000 bitcoins were stolen from a single wallet, amounting to roughly 2% of the company’s total bitcoin holdings.
Hackers used phishing, viruses and other techniques, the company said. Binance said they had obtained information about multiple users, including two-factor authentication codes. Industry participants said they believed it was the first major breach at Binance.
An expanded version of this story can be found at WSJ.com
Huawei CFO to seek extradition stay citing Trump comments
May 8, 2019 /
12:11 PM
VANCOUVER/NEW YORK
(Reuters) - Huawei’s chief financial officer intends to seek a stay of
extradition proceedings in part based on statements by President Donald Trump
about the case, which her lawyers say disqualifies the United States from
pursuing the matter in Canada.
CFO Meng Wanzhou, 47, the daughter of Huawei Technologies Co Ltd’s
billionaire founder, Ren Zhengfei, was arrested at Vancouver’s airport in
December on a U.S. warrant and is fighting extradition on charges that she
conspired to defraud global banks about Huawei’s relationship with a company
operating in Iran.
After the arrest, Trump told Reuters he would intervene in the U.S. case
against Meng if it would help close a trade deal with China.
Meng’s defence lawyers said in a document presented to the British
Columbia Supreme Court on Wednesday that they intend to apply for the stay of
the extradition proceedings based on abuses that go beyond Trump’s comments.
The lawyers also claim Meng was unlawfully detained, searched and
interrogated at the airport, with her arrest delayed under the guise of a
routine immigration check.
In addition, Meng’s counsel argued there is no evidence she
misrepresented to a bank Huawei’s relationship with a company operating in Iran
called Skycom, thereby putting the bank at risk of violating U.S. sanctions
law, or that the bank relied on her statements to its detriment.
The lawyers claim the bank understood the relationship between Huawei
and Skycom.
More
“Trump
explained about the Necessary Trade Wars. He had explained this to Xi and
Juncker once before and had been waiting for a chance to do it again, because
it is a thing you can easily explain twice before anybody knows what you are
talking about.”
The House at Trump Corner
Crooks and Scoundrels Corner
The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled
over.
Today, President Trump trashes another international accord. Hopefully
not a precedent if China ever becomes top dog later this century.
“It was a drowsy summer afternoon, and the Forest was full of
gentle sounds, which all
seemed to be saying to Trump, 'Don't listen to anyone,
listen to Trump.' So he got in a comfortable position for not listening to anyone”
The House at Trump Corner
U.S. sinks Arctic accord due to climate change differences: diplomats
May 7, 2019 /
11:49 AM
ROVANIEMI, Finland
(Reuters) - The United States has refused to sign an agreement on challenges in
the Arctic due to discrepancies over climate change wording, diplomats said on
Tuesday, jeopardising cooperation in the polar region at the sharp edge of
global warming.
With Arctic temperatures rising at twice the rate of the rest of the
globe, the melting ice is creating potential new shipping lanes and has opened
much of the world’s last untapped reserves of oil and gas to commercial
exploitation .
A meeting of eight nations bordering the Arctic in Rovaniemi in Finland
on Tuesday was supposed to frame a two-year agenda to balance the challenge of
global warming with sustainable development of mineral wealth.
But sources with knowledge of the discussions said the United States
balked at signing a final declaration as it disagreed with wording that climate
change was a serious threat to the Arctic.
It was the first time a declaration had been cancelled since the Arctic
Council was formed in 1996.
Instead, in a brief statement, ministers from the United States, Canada,
Russia, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden and Iceland repeated their commitment
to sustainable development and the protection of the Arctic environment.
Except for the United States, other nations had wanted to go further,
participants said.
“A majority of us regarded climate change as a fundamental challenge
facing the Arctic and acknowledged the urgent need to take mitigation and
adaptation actions and to strengthen resilience,” talks chair and Finnish
Foreign Minister Timo Soini said in a statement.
---- A senior U.S. State Department official denied Washington had again dragged its heels over global environmental action.
“There were several different versions of the declaration going around.
The U.S. was ready to sign,” said the official, who spoke to reporters on
condition of anonymity.
The idea for “a simpler, positive, unified, collective message” had come
from Russia and Canada, he added.
Scientists believe the Arctic contains around 13 percent of the world’s
undiscovered reserves of oil and 30 percent of its reserves of natural gas as
well as huge deposits of minerals such as zinc, iron and rare earth metals.
Harvesting them remains expensive, but melting ice is making that more
feasible, as well as affecting the world’s weather, and the Arctic’s wildlife
and indigenous residents.
More
“That's
right. You'll like Xi. He flew past a day or two ago and noticed me. He didn't
actually say anything, mind you, but he knew it was me. Very friendly of him.
Encouraging."
May and Juncker shuffled about a little and said, "Well, good-bye, Trump" as lingeringly as they could, but they had a long way to go, and wanted to be getting on.
"Good-bye," said Trump. "Mind you don't get blown away, in a trade war little Juncker. You'd be missed. People would say `Where's little Juncker been blown to?' -- really wanting to know. Well, good-bye. And thank you for happening to pass me.”
May and Juncker shuffled about a little and said, "Well, good-bye, Trump" as lingeringly as they could, but they had a long way to go, and wanted to be getting on.
"Good-bye," said Trump. "Mind you don't get blown away, in a trade war little Juncker. You'd be missed. People would say `Where's little Juncker been blown to?' -- really wanting to know. Well, good-bye. And thank you for happening to pass me.”
With
apologies to The House at Trump
Corner
Technology Update.
With events happening
fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.
Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC
energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?
India mulls new solar tender with focus on factories
India is considering a new solar that doesn’t include a requirement to also generate electricity, sources said.
Updated: May 07,
2019, 05.46 PM IST
by Anindya Upadhyay
India is considering a new tender to develop solar power equipment manufacturing that doesn’t include a requirement to also generate electricity, a move aimed at sparking investor interest, according to people with knowledge of the plan.
In addition to separating manufacturing of solar cells and modules from generation, the government may also offer some form of financial aid, said the people, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.
There has been little interest from solar equipment makers in the previous manufacturing tenders, a hurdle to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plans of building 100 gigawatts of solar power capacity by 2022.
India is considering a new tender to develop solar power equipment manufacturing that doesn’t include a requirement to also generate electricity, a move aimed at sparking investor interest, according to people with knowledge of the plan.
In addition to separating manufacturing of solar cells and modules from generation, the government may also offer some form of financial aid, said the people, asking not to be identified as the information isn’t public.
There has been little interest from solar equipment makers in the previous manufacturing tenders, a hurdle to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitious plans of building 100 gigawatts of solar power capacity by 2022.
India
has been struggling to spur its nascent domestic manufacturing industry, which
the government estimates can currently only meet just 15 per cent of the
country’s annual needs. The South Asian nation has been seeking to boost its
capabilities through both manufacturing tenders as well as a safeguard duty on
cheaper Chinese imports.
A
tender issued in May 2018 was downsized and delayed multiple times, before
being scrapped due to poor investor interest. It was replaced by a smaller
version in January, for which the bidding deadline has been extended three
times. The latest deadline, May 14, is expected to be extended again, the
people said.
Anand
Kumar, secretary at the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy, declined to
comment on either the extension of the deadline or the possible new tender.
India’s efforts to develop its own solar equipment industry will be challenged by both domestic policies and overseas competition, according to BloombergNEF analyst Rohit Gadre.
India’s efforts to develop its own solar equipment industry will be challenged by both domestic policies and overseas competition, according to BloombergNEF analyst Rohit Gadre.
More
“And out floated Trump.
"Trump!" cried everybody.
Looking very calm, very dignified, with his legs in the air, came Trump from beneath the bridge.
"It's Trump!" cried May terribly excited.
"Is that so?" said Trump, getting caught up by a little eddy, and turning slowly round three times. "I wondered."
"I didn't know you were playing," said May.
"I'm not," said Trump.
"Trump, what are you doing there?" said Powell.
"I'll give you three guesses, Powell. Digging holes in the ground? Wrong. Leaping from branch to branch of a young oak-tree? Wrong. Waiting for somebody to help me out of this trade war? Right. Give Powell time, and he'll always get the answer."
"But, Trump," said Powell in distress, "what can we--I mean, how shall we--do you think if we--"
"Yes," said Trump. "One of those would be just the thing. Thank you, Powell.”
"Trump!" cried everybody.
Looking very calm, very dignified, with his legs in the air, came Trump from beneath the bridge.
"It's Trump!" cried May terribly excited.
"Is that so?" said Trump, getting caught up by a little eddy, and turning slowly round three times. "I wondered."
"I didn't know you were playing," said May.
"I'm not," said Trump.
"Trump, what are you doing there?" said Powell.
"I'll give you three guesses, Powell. Digging holes in the ground? Wrong. Leaping from branch to branch of a young oak-tree? Wrong. Waiting for somebody to help me out of this trade war? Right. Give Powell time, and he'll always get the answer."
"But, Trump," said Powell in distress, "what can we--I mean, how shall we--do you think if we--"
"Yes," said Trump. "One of those would be just the thing. Thank you, Powell.”
With apologies to The
House at Pooh Corner
The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April
DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down.
SP500: 2,946
+55 Up.
The S&P has
reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President
Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the
performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now
officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest
action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the
major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.
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