Monday, 27 May 2019

Mixed Messages.


Baltic Dry Index. 1066 -02   Brent Crude 68.70

Never ending Brexit now October 31st, maybe. 
Nuclear Trump Tariffs Now In Effect.
USA v EU trade war postponed to November, maybe.

When the stock market crashed, Franklin Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the princes of greed. He said, 'Look, here's what happened.'

Joe Biden

With markets closed in America and GB today for respective bank holidays, and Europe, though open, still digesting the results of the European Parliament elections, Asian and European markets are likely to be thin and skittish. Europe’s voters seem to have sent out mixed messages.

With the surge in Britain of the Brexit Party, only founded about six weeks ago, and the departure of Calamity May as Prime Minister on June 7th, the rump EUSSR now has an unsolvable Brexit problem. Come up with a meaningful trade deal with the departing GB by October 31, or watch GB leave on WTO terms, almost certainly pushing the EUSSR into recession.

Below, Asian markets nervously await developments on a mooted Renault – Fiat Chrysler merger,  details expected later,  while China takes a hard line back with the USA.

Asia stocks flat, euro holds firm after fragmented Europe vote

May 27, 2019 / 1:34 AM
TOKYO (Reuters) - Asia stocks hovered near four-month lows on Monday amid concerns about U.S.-China tensions while the euro was confined to a narrow range after the weekend’s European Parliament elections.

MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was virtually flat, a sliver above from a four-month low touched on Friday, with market holidays in the U.S. and U.K. denting trading volumes. 

Casting a shadow over many share markets were worries the China-U.S. trade conflict was turning into a technology cold war between the world’s two largest economies.

Japan’s Nikkei average was up 0.3% by its midday break.

Chinese shares began Monday higher but then slipped, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite down 0.3% and the blue-chip CSI 300 falling 0.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.5%.

Wall Street’s major indexes edged higher on Friday in a rebound from the previous session’s losses after comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on trade relations with China provided markets a bit of a respite. [.N]

The euro was a shade higher at $1.1211, holding within a tight $1.2272-$1.2754 range in what was a limited reaction so far to partial returns in the European parliament elections.

---- “With a turnout of more than 50%, European elections were far less of a non-event than usual,” Robert Carnell, ING Asia-Pacific research head, said in a note to clients.

“This was not a ringing endorsement for Euroskepticism - with only 22% of the seats going to EU skeptical parties, and even this bolstered by what may be a temporary surge in the UK’s Brexit party seats, the EU parliament remains a largely pro-European institution.”

A centrist, pro-EU coalition would still be possible in the new chamber that will sit for the first time on July 2. But it would be more difficult to piece together among more numerous partners, according to the European Parliament’s estimates.

The longer-term impact of the election, therefore, remained unclear, analysts say.
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China says U.S. demand on its state-owned enterprises is 'invasion' on economic sovereignty

May 25, 2019 / 5:36 PM
BEIJING (Reuters) - The United States has called on China to curb the development of its state-owned enterprises (SOEs), a demand that China sees as an “invasion” on its economic sovereignty, Chinese state news agency Xinhua said on Saturday.

Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated sharply earlier this month after the Trump administration accused China of having “reneged” on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices. 

Washington later slapped additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to retaliate.

As trade talks stalled, both sides have appeared to be digging in. China has denied it had walked back on its promises but reiterated it would not make concessions to “matters of principles” to defend its core interests, although no full details were given.

“At the negotiating table, the U.S. government presented a number of arrogant demands to China, including restricting the development of state-owned enterprises,” Xinhua said in a commentary.

SOEs in China enjoy not only explicit subsidies but also hidden benefits such as implicit government guarantees for debts and lower interest for bank loans, analysts and trade groups say.

“Obviously, this is beyond the scope of trade negotiations and touches on China’s fundamental economic system,” Xinhua said.

“This shows that behind the United States’ trade war against China, it is trying to invade China’s economic sovereignty and force China to damage its core interests.”

The commentary added the United States has made unfounded accusations including that Beijing had forced technology transfers from foreign firms operating in China, saying this is all evidence that the U.S side is “forcing China to change its development path.”

In other Asian news, the USA and North Korea traded barbs. Trump, as usual, sent a mixed message.

North Korea slams 'human defect' Bolton

Date created :
North Korea slammed US National Security Advisor John Bolton on Monday, calling him a "human defect" that had to be banished, just as President Donald Trump offered a positive outlook on relations with Pyongyang.

Talks between Washington and Pyongyang have been deadlocked since the collapse of a summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi in February when they failed to agree a deal on denuclearisation.

The North has since sought to raise the pressure and carried out two short-range missile tests earlier this month.

Bolton said Saturday there was "no doubt" they violated UN Security Council resolutions against ballistic missile launches, but insisted Washington was still ready to resume talks.

A spokesman for the North's foreign ministry dismissed Bolton's remarks, saying Pyongyang had never accepted the UN bans on ballistic technology, which denied its "rights as a sovereign nation".

"Bolton said our regular military drills violated UNSC resolutions, which is beyond stupid," he said in a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA).

Without referring to the weapons as missiles, the statement said the launches did not target or threaten any neighbouring countries.

"Banning launches using ballistic technology is equal to telling us to give up our right to self defence," he added.

The spokesman went on to denounce Bolton, calling him a "war maniac" and accusing him of "whispering war" into Trump's ears, referring to Washington's approach towards the Middle East and South America.

Calling the hawkish official "structurally faulty", he added that Bolton was working to "destroy peace and security".

"Such human defect must go away as soon as possible," the spokesman said.

The statement came just minutes after Trump -- on a visit to Japan -- said there was "great respect" between the United States and North Korea and predicted "lots of good things".

Trump expressed confidence in his relationship with Kim at the weekend and downplayed Pyongyang's recent missile launches, calling them "small weapons" that "disturbed some of my people, and others, but not me".

Last week, KCNA launched a diatribe against Democratic former US vice president Joe Biden, calling him an "imbecile" and a "fool of low IQ", prompting White House spokeswoman Sarah Sanders to say that Trump agreed with the assessment.

Finally, that Asian African Swine Fever virus epidemic is still spreading, and could eventually reach the USA.

Vietnam Culls 1.7 Million Pigs as Virus Spreads to New Areas

By Mai Ngoc Chau
Updated on 27 May 2019, 02:57 BST

Vietnam culled more than 1.7 million pigs as African swine
Vietnam culled more than 1.7 million pigs as African swine fever spread across the country, with officials warning the disease may penetrate sizable commercial farms next.

About 5% of the nation’s pig population has been culled as the number of infected provinces and cities increased to 42, the government said on its website. The epidemic will likely continue expanding to other locations and bigger farms, according to the agricultural ministry’s forecasts.
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Animal feed could carry African swine fever into U.S., researchers say

May 24, 2019 / 3:00 AM
EVANSVILLE, Ind., May 24 (UPI) -- While U.S. Customs and Border Protection scrambles to keep pork products infected with African swine fever from entering the country, experts say the disease could slip through easily another way -- in unmonitored animal feed.

Researchers at Kansas State University recently showed that hogs will become sick after eating feed that has been exposed to the virus. They also showed that the virus can survive in feed ingredients long enough to be shipped from a country infected with the disease to an American farm.
The United States imports millions of pounds of animal feed each year from countries that have African swine fever outbreaks, notably China.

That "makes this pathway important to consider," Megan Niederwerder, an assistant professor of diagnostic medicine and pathobiology at Kansas State's College of Veterinary Medicine, who conducted the study, said in a statement.

"African swine fever is arguably the most significant threat to worldwide swine production," Niederwerder said. The study, she said, "is the first to demonstrate that African swine fever can be easily transmitted through the natural consumption of contaminated feed and liquid."

What makes this threat more credible to the pork industry is that animal feed has carried viruses from China to the United States before.

"Our experience tells us this can happen," said Paul Sundberg, the director of the Swine Health Information Center in Iowa. In 2013, feed contaminated by porcine epidemic diarrhea virus crossed the ocean from China and reached the American herd.


"There were several farms that broke essentially at the same time," said Liz Wagstrom, the chief veterinarian at the National Pork Producers Council. "These farms had nothing in common. They were in completely different states. They didn't use any of the same suppliers. It was really interesting trying to figure out what was infecting them. We eventually traced it back to where the feed came from."

The feed can become contaminated because in many parts of Asia, including China, farmers and exporters dry their soybeans and other animal feed by spreading the food out on the open ground. Beans, for example, can be exposed to manure and other bodily secretions from nearby animals that may be sick, Wagstrom said.

From there, the virus can infect the containers, trucks and even processing plants in which beans are transformed into feed.
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The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible.

Bernard Baruch

Crooks and Scoundrels Corner

The bent, the seriously bent, and the totally doubled over.

Today, that massive contaminated Russian oil problem. Actually, it’s a Poland, Germany, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic oil problem too. Was it criminal activity or sabotage, and if sabotage, by whom?

Exclusive: Russia to pump dirty oil back from Belarus - sources

May 24, 2019 / 10:16 AM
MOSCOW/WARSAW (Reuters) - Russia will pump dirty crude oil back from Belarus as it tries to clear a major pipeline of the contaminated oil that has caused the worst ever disruption to its oil exports, sources and officials said on Friday.

Some 5 million tonnes of oil were contaminated in April with organic chloride and the dirty crude is now stuck in pipelines in Belarus and further West - in Poland, Germany, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

The sources said it could take months to fully resolve the crisis. 

The crude is blocking the 1 million barrels-per-day Druzhba pipeline, shut since late April, and the evacuation of dirty barrels is complicated by the fact that no firm wants to pay for or refine them as organic chloride can damage refining equipment.

Four industry sources familiar with the latest Russian plan told Reuters Moscow would reverse the Druzhba pipeline and pump back around 1 million tonnes of contaminated oil from Belarus, thus cleaning up the link all the way through to Belarus’s border with Poland.

Another 1 million tonnes stuck in Poland and Germany though, will be left there to be dealt with by those countries, the sources said.

“The Russians are open to agreeing to take back the polluted oil from the Belarus section which has not come to Poland yet, but there is no agreement on compensation,” one industry source said.

The source attended a meeting in Warsaw on Thursday between Russian, Belarussian and European companies to discuss how to resume oil exports via Druzhba, the loss of which is costing Russia $80 million per day.

Three other people present at the Warsaw talks or briefed on what was discussed also said the plan was for Russia to take back the oil from the Belarus section.

“This is a bit under 1 million tonnes. They plan to take it back to Russia,” one of four sources said.
The pipeline supplies Poland and Germany via its northern leg and goes to Ukraine, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic in the south. The routes split at the Mozyr refinery in Belarus.

---- Germany’s economy ministry and oil industry association said on Friday that ongoing Druzhba problems did not pose a threat to the security of oil product supply and that there were no plans to release oil from strategic stocks.

It remained unclear where Russia is planning to send the contaminated crude after pumping it back, the four sources said. It previously sent contaminated oil via the Baltic port of Ust-Luga via a pipeline, while a small volume was sent by rail to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk where it got mixed with clean oil.
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Russia removed 2 million tonnes of tainted Druzhba oil using rail, sea, storage: sources

May 23, 2019 / 3:34 PM
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia is using rail, storage tanks and ships to remove contaminated oil from an export pipeline, and has so far extracted around 2 million tonnes of the tainted oil - or over a third of volumes hit, industry sources and data showed.

---- Russia is attempting the clean-up by a number of means.

Since the start of May, Russia is sending some tainted oil by rail to the Black Sea port of Novorossiisk - which was not affected by the contamination, where it is mixed with clean oil and then exported. 

---- On Wednesday evening, Slovakia started to receive clean Russian oil via the Druzhba pipeline thanks to the cleaning efforts but there are no flows to Hungary and the Czech republic, according to traders.

Czech pipeline operator Mero said on Thursday that normal flows are expected to resume by the end of the month. Hungarian energy company MOL did not reply to a Reuters request for a comment.

The northern leg to Poland and Germany remains shut and refineries on that route are using alternative supplies, including via the sea, to compensate for the loss of Russian flows.
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Technology Update.
With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section. Updates as they get reported. Is converting sunlight to usable cheap AC or DC energy mankind’s future from the 21st century onwards?

Mathematically designed graphene has improved electrocatalytic activity

Date: May 24, 2019

Source: Tohoku University

Summary: An international research group has improved graphene's ability to catalyze the 'hydrogen evolution reaction,' which releases hydrogen as a result of passing an electronic current through water. They designed a mathematically predicted graphene electrocatalyst, and confirmed its performance using high resolution electrochemical microscopy and computational modelling.
Akichika Kumatani of Tohoku University's Advanced Institute for Materials Research (AIMR), Tatsuhiko Ohto of Osaka University, Yoshikazu Ito of Tsukuba University and colleagues in Japan and Germany found that adding nitrogen and phosphorus 'dopants' around the well-defined edges of graphene holes enhanced its ability to electrocatalyse the hydrogen evolution reaction.

Graphene-based catalysts have an advantage over metal-based ones in that they are stable and controllable, making them suitable for use in fuel cells, energy storage and conversion devices, and in water electrolysis. Their properties can be improved by making multiple simultaneous changes to their structures. But scientists need to be able to 'see' these changes at the nanoscale in order to understand how they work together to promote catalysis.

Kumatani and his colleagues used the recently developed scanning electrochemical cell microscopy (SECCM) for direct, sub-microscale observation of the electrochemical reactions that happen when current is passed through water during electrolysis. It also allowed them to analyse how structural changes in graphene electrocatalysts affect their electrochemical activities. This type of observation is not possible using conventional approaches.

The team synthesized an electrocatalyst made from a graphene sheet full of mathematically predicted holes with well-defined edges. The edges around the holes increase the number of active sites available for chemical reactions to occur. They doped the graphene sheet by adding nitrogen and phosphorus atoms around hole edges. The graphene-based electrocatalyst was then used to enhance the release of hydrogen during electrolysis.

Using SECCM, the team found that their graphene electrocatalyst significantly improved the formation of a current in response to energy release during electrolysis. Their computational calculations suggest that adding nitrogen and phosphorus dopants enhances the contrast of positive and negative charges on the atoms surrounding hole edges, boosting their ability to transport an electric current.

Nitrogen- and phosphorus-doped holey graphene electrocatalysts worked better than those doped with only one of the two chemical elements.

"These findings pave a path for atomic-level engineering of the edge structure of graphene in graphene-based electrocatalysts through the local visualization of electrochemical activities," the researchers conclude.

The difference between playing the stock market and the horses is that one of the horses must win.

Joey Adams

The monthly Coppock Indicators finished April

DJIA: 26,593 +51 Down. NASDAQ: 8,095 +89 Down. SP500: 2,946 +55 Up. 

The S&P has reversed to up largely as a result of the Fed falling into line with President Trump’s demands, but with President Trump wanting to be judged by the performance of the stock market and the Fed’s Plunge Protection Team now officially part of President Trump’s re-election team, probably the safest action here is still fully paid up synthetic double options on most of the major indexes. This could all go very wrong very fast.

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