Baltic
Dry Index. 1688 -30 Brent Crude 63.48
Spot Gold 4595 Spot Silver 84.21
US 2 Year Yield 3.54 +0.05
US Federal Debt. 38.597 trillion US GDP 31.056 trillion.
The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.
Ernest Hemingway
Update 8 AM GMT.
Gold breaches $4,600/oz as Powell-Trump rift stokes safe-haven demand
Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold broke through
$4,600/ounce for the first time on Monday, while silver also hit a record high,
as investors snapped up safe-haven assets due to heightened geopolitical
uncertainties and a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Spot gold jumped 1.4% to $4,572.36 per
ounce by 0619 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $4,600.33 earlier in the day.
U.S. gold futures for February delivery
firmed 1.8% to $4,583.20.
"So, between events in Iran, and
potential U.S. involvement, and the (Fed) chair being the focus of a criminal
probe... U.S. futures turned lower on the Powell news, which was a green light
for gold to take a run higher," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market
analyst.
Powell said on Sunday the Trump
administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment over Congressional
testimony, an action the
Fed Chair called a "pretext" to further pressure the central bank
into lowering rates. This sent the dollar and U.S. equity futures lower.
Though Goldman Sachs pushed
back its forecast for Fed rate cuts on Sunday, it is now expecting two
25-basis-point reductions in June and September 2026 instead of the earlier
anticipated moves in March and June.
Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a
low-interest-rate environment and during geopolitical or economic
uncertainties.
"If things remain as they are, I
think (silver) prices will be soon pushing towards $90/oz... while there is
still policy uncertainty and now there are some restrictions from
China of which we are (yet) to see the impact," said ANZ commodity
strategist Soni Kumari.
More
Gold
breaches $4,600/oz as Powell-Trump rift stokes safe-haven demand | Reuters
The President Trump war on Fed Chairman Powell over interest rates and an independent central bank escalated over the weekend and in a way that will only escalate rest of the world long term dollar flight.
In America and the UK, the media is hard at work conditioning the public for intervention in Iran.
Gold silver and crude oil are all trading higher. How long before crude oil stops trading in US dollars?
Asia-Pacific markets rise after key Wall Street
indexes ended last week on record highs
Published Sun, Jan 11 2026 6:55 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets rose Monday following
Wall Street gains from last week after a U.S. job
report showed that unemployment rate fell, signaling resilience in the
labor market.
Investors will be keeping an eye on oil
prices as Iran entered a third week of protests, which have seen more than 500
people killed, according to a U.S.-based rights group. President Donald Trump is
reportedly weighing options for intervention in Iran, according to
multiple reports Sunday.
Brent crude futures reversed
course to fall to $63.05 per barrel, while the U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
declined 0.49% to $58.83 per barrel, as of 10 a.m. Singapore time (9 p.m. ET
Sunday).
Spot gold prices rose more than 1.6% to
hit all-time high of $4,581.29 per ounce.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.38%.
South Korea’s Kospi climbed 1.11%, and the
small-cap Kosdaq advanced 0.96%. Shares of Hyundai Glovis soared as much as 8%
after analysts raised their price target for the South Korean
logistics company.
Robot-maker Boston Dynamics, in which
Hyundai Glovis owns an 80% stake, announced a partnership with Google DeepMind last
Monday to integrate AI into humanoid robots.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and mainland
China’s CSI 300 opened slightly below the flatline.
Japanese markets were closed for a
holiday. On Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s coalition partner,
Hirofumi Yoshimura, said that she may call an early general election. His
comments come after domestic media reported that
Takaichi was considering a snap election in February, citing government
sources.
The Japanese yen weakened sharply Monday,
hitting a one-year low of 158.19 against the greenback.
U.S. equity futures were flat in early
Asian hours, ahead of a flurry of key economic data and earnings reports
throughout the week.
On Friday stateside, the S&P 500 closed up 0.65%
to 6,966.28, a fresh record close. It also notched a new
all-time intraday high in the session.
The Nasdaq Composite gained
0.81% to 23,671.35. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average added 237.96 points, or 0.48%, to end at
49,504.07, scoring a new closing record as well.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Oil, Iran protests, Hang Seng Index, CSI 300
Wall Street Week Ahead
Jan. 11, 2026 6:03 AM ET
Wall Street has a busy week ahead that
will see the start of the earnings season and a host of economic data.
Major U.S. banks take the spotlight as they gear up for their quarterly
results. Investors will hear from the biggest lender, JPMorgan (JPM), on Tuesday,
followed by number-two lender Bank of America (BAC) on Wednesday,
along with Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citi (C), and Goldman
Sachs (GS) and Morgan
Stanley (MS) on Thursday.
Looking at the economic calendar, traders will receive the December consumer
price index report on Tuesday, followed by the delayed November producer price
index report on Wednesday. The U.S. retail sales report for November is also
set for Wednesday.
Finally, market participants will hear from some Federal Reserve speakers this
week, including Governor Stephen Miran, Vice Chair for Supervision
Michelle Bowman, and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. The Fed's Beige Book
will be published as well.
Wall Street Week
Ahead | Seeking Alpha
Federal Prosecutors Open Investigation Into Fed
Chair Powell
The investigation, which is said to center
on renovations of the Federal Reserve’s headquarters in Washington, signals an
escalation in the long-running clash between President Trump and the chair.
Jan. 11, 2026
The U.S. attorney’s office in the District
of Columbia has opened a criminal investigation into Jerome H. Powell, the
Federal Reserve chair, over the central bank’s renovation of
its Washington headquarters and whether Mr. Powell lied to Congress about the
scope of the project, according to officials briefed on the situation.
The inquiry, which includes an analysis of
Mr. Powell’s public statements and an examination of spending records, was
approved in November by Jeanine Pirro, a longtime ally of President Trump who
was appointed to run the office last year, the officials said.
The investigation escalates Mr. Trump’s
long-running feud with Mr. Powell, whom the president has continually attacked
for resisting his demands to slash interest rates significantly. The president
has threatened to fire the Fed chair — even though he nominated Mr. Powell for
the position in 2017 — and raised the prospect of a lawsuit against him related
to the $2.5 billion renovation, citing “incompetence.”
Mr. Trump told
The New York Times in an interview last week that he had decided on
who he wants to replace Mr. Powell as Fed chair. He is expected to soon
announce his decision. Kevin
A. Hassett, Mr. Trump’s top economic adviser, is a front-runner for the top
job. While Mr. Powell’s term as chair ends in May, his term as a governor runs
through January 2028. Mr. Powell has not disclosed whether he plans to stay on
at the central bank beyond this year.
Mr. Powell, in a rare video message released by the Fed, acknowledged
on Sunday that the Justice Department had served the central bank with grand
jury subpoenas days earlier. He described the investigation as “unprecedented” and
questioned the motivation for the move, even as he affirmed that he carried out
his duties as chair “without political fear or favor.”
The Fed chair warned that the
investigation signaled a broader battle over the Fed’s independence. “The
threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting
interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather
than following the preferences of the president,” Mr. Powell added. “This is
about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on
evidence and economic conditions — or whether instead monetary policy will be
directed by political pressure or intimidation.”
More
Federal
Prosecutors Open Investigation Into Fed Chair Powell - The New York Times
Oil edge up as Iran supply risk counters Venezuela
export resumption
Published Mon, Jan 12 2026 12:07 AM EST
Oil prices edged higher
on Monday as escalating protests in Iran sparked concerns about
supplies from the OPEC producer, while efforts to
resume oil exports from Venezuela and expectations the market will be
oversupplied this year limited gains.
Brent crude futures climbed
5 cents to $63.39 a barrel by 0433 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was
at $59.16 a barrel, up 4 cents.
Both contracts rose more than 3% last week
to clinch their biggest weekly rise since October as Iran’s clerical
establishment intensified its crackdown on the biggest demonstrations
since 2022.
While a premium has formed
in oil prices in recent days, the market is still underestimating the
geopolitical risk from a wider Iran conflict that may
impact oil shipments at the Strait of Hormuz, Saul Kavonic,
head of energy research at MST Marquee.
“The market is saying show me the
disruption to supply before materially responding,” he added.
The civil unrest in Iran
has killed more than 500 people, a rights group said on Sunday.
“There have also been calls for workers in
the oil industry to down tools amid the protests,” ANZ analysts led
by Daniel Hynes said in a note.
“The situation puts at least 1.9 million
barrels per day of oil exports at risk of disruption,” they added.
U.S. President Donald Trump has repeatedly
threatened to intervene if force is used on protesters.
The president is expected to meet senior
advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for Iran, a U.S. official told
Reuters on Sunday.
Still, Venezuela is expected to
resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas
Maduro as Trump said last week the government in Caracas is set to turn over as
much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the United States.
That has set off a race
among oil companies to find tankers and assemble operations to
ship the crude safely from vessels and dilapidated Venezuelan ports, four
sources familiar with the operations said.
Trafigura said in a meeting with the
White House on Friday that its first vessel should load in the next week.
More
Oil
edge up as Iran supply risk counters Venezuela export resumption
In other news.
Trump calls for one-year cap on credit card
interest rates at 10%
January 10, 2026 4:08 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S.
President Donald Trump said on
Friday he was calling for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%
starting on January 20 but he did not provide details on how his plan will come
to fruition or how he planned to make companies comply.
Trump also made the pledge during the
campaign for the 2024 election that he won but analysts dismissed it at the
time saying that such a step required congressional approval.
Lawmakers from both the Democratic and
Republican Parties have raised concerns about high rates and have called for
those to be addressed. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in both the
Senate and the House of Representatives.
There have been some legislative efforts
in Congress to pursue such a proposal but they are yet to become law and in his
post Trump did not offer explicit support to any specific bill.
Opposition lawmakers have criticized
Trump, a Republican, for not having delivered on his campaign pledge.
"Effective January 20, 2026, I, as
President of the United States, am calling for a one year cap on Credit Card
Interest Rates of 10%," Trump wrote on Truth Social, without providing
more details.
"Please be informed that we will no
longer let the American Public be 'ripped off' by Credit Card Companies,"
Trump added.
U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Democrat
in the Senate Banking Committee, said Trump's call was meaningless without a
bill being passed by Congress.
"Begging credit card companies to
play nice is a joke. I said a year ago if Trump was serious I'd work to pass a
bill to cap rates," Warren said, while criticizing Trump's attempts to gut
the U.S. Consumer Financial
Protection Bureau.
The White House did not immediately
respond to a request for comment on details of the call from Trump, but said on
social media without elaborating that the president was capping the rates.
Some major U.S. banks and credit card
issuers like American Express (AXP.N), opens new
tab,
Capital One Financial Corp (COF.N), opens new
tab,
JPMorgan (JPM.N),
opens new tab,
Citigroup (C.N),
opens new tab and
Bank of America (BAC.N), opens new
tab did
not respond to a request for comment.
Some banking advocacy groups said in a
joint statement that a 10 percent interest rate cap would "reduce credit
availability" and "only drive consumers toward less regulated, more
costly alternatives."
The statement came from the Consumer
Bankers Association, Bank Policy Institute, American Bankers Association,
Financial Services Forum and Independent Community Bankers of America.
LAWMAKERS HAVE RAISED CONCERNS ABOUT RATES
U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, a fierce
Trump critic, and Senator Josh Hawley, who belongs to Trump's Republican Party,
have previously introduced bipartisan legislation aimed at capping credit card
interest rates at 10% for five years. This bill explicitly directs credit card
companies to limit rates as part of broader consumer relief legislation.
Democratic U.S. Representative Alexandria
Ocasio-Cortez and Republican Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna have also
introduced a House of Representatives bill to cap credit card interest rates at
10%, reflecting cross-aisle interest in addressing high rates.
Billionaire fund manager Bill Ackman, who
endorsed Trump in the last elections, said on X the U.S. president's call was a
"mistake."
Last year, the Trump administration moved to scrap a credit
card late fee rule from the era of former President Joe Biden.
The Trump administration had asked a
federal court to throw out a regulation capping credit card late fees at $8,
saying it agreed with business and banking groups that alleged the rule was
illegal. A federal judge subsequently threw out the rule.
Trump calls for
one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10% | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
US job growth stuck
at stall speed in December; unemployment rate dips to 4.4%
January 9, 2026 7:23 PM
GMT
WASHINGTON, Jan 9
(Reuters) - U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in December amid
job losses in the construction, retail and manufacturing sectors, but a decline
in the unemployment rate to 4.4% suggested the labor market was not rapidly deteriorating.
The Labor Department's
closely watched employment report on Friday also showed solid wage growth last
month, bolstering economists' expectations the Federal Reserve would leave
interest rates unchanged at its January 27-28 meeting.
Economists have blamed
sluggish job growth on President Donald Trump's aggressive trade and immigration policies, which they say have
reduced both demand for and supply of workers.
Businesses are also
holding back on hiring, unsure of their staffing needs as they invest heavily
in artificial intelligence. The economy is experiencing a jobless expansion,
with growth and worker productivity surging
in the third quarter, which was partly attributed to AI.
"All roads lead to
the unemployment rate ... it should douse the Fed's recent urgency to backstop
a weakening labor market," said Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research
at Fitch Ratings. "That said, the weak job-growth story can't be brushed
aside. Hiring is still stuck in stall speed, and job growth in the cyclical
parts of the economy isn't sending a comforting signal."
Nonfarm payrolls
increased by 50,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised rise of 56,000
in November, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists
polled by Reuters had forecast a gain of 60,000 jobs after a previously reported
increase of 64,000 in November.
Job losses in October
were revised higher to 173,000, the most in nearly five years and the result of
federal government employees who took deferred buyouts, from the previously
estimated 105,000. Job losses have averaged 22,000 over the past three months,
underscoring the loss of momentum in the labor market.
Economists said negative
quarterly payrolls were unusual outside a recession. They described the labor
market as being stuck in a "low-hire, low-fire" mode.
Only 584,000 jobs were
added in 2025, averaging about 49,000 positions per month. That figure was less
than a third of the 2 million jobs created in 2024, when employment gains
averaged about 168,000 positions per month.
"Throughout the
year, persistent policy headwinds weighed on business sentiment and curtailed
hiring, prompting many firms to remain cautious and prioritize cost control and
flexibility in response to an unpredictable operating environment," said
Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon.
Job gains were narrow,
with the share of industries reporting growth falling to 50.8% from 55.6% in
November.
More
US job growth stuck at stall speed in December; unemployment rate dips to
4.4% | Reuters
Fed seen on longer
rate-cut pause after December jobs data
January 9, 2026 7:55 PM
GMT
Jan 9 (Reuters) - A drop
in the unemployment rate may ease concerns at the U.S. central bank about labor
market weakness, with traders betting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has
delivered his last interest rate cut before his term ends in May and leaving
any further policy easing in the hands of whomever President Donald Trump taps
as Powell's successor.
The unemployment
rate fell to 4.4% last month
from a revised 4.5% in November, the U.S. Labor Department reported on Friday,
even as employers added 50,000 jobs in the month. Economists polled by Reuters
had forecast a gain of 60,000.
Powell led the Fed into
reducing its benchmark overnight interest rate by three quarters
of a percentage point last year in a bid to keep the job market from softening
further, even as his more hawkish colleagues argued that doing so could slow or
even imperil progress on bringing down above-target inflation.
The latest job market
data appears to give the central bank a bit of breathing room to leave
short-term borrowing costs where they are to keep up the pressure on inflation,
as Powell last month signaled policymakers are inclined to do at least in the
near term.
December's modest job
growth is "very much in line with the businesses I am talking to, which is
that the low-hire environment continues," Richmond Fed President Thomas
Barkin told reporters, noting the reluctance to hire is due to uncertainty about
the economy and also to higher productivity that allows firms to get by with
less labor.
While it is an
"uncomfortable" fact that hiring is concentrated in only a narrow set
of industries, he said he feels labor supply and job growth are in reasonable
balance. That view suggests he's not in a rush to cut rates to support the job
market.
Traders of rate futures
tied to the Fed's policy rate now see just a 44% chance of a rate cut by April,
versus about even odds previously, with a resumption of rate cuts in June seen
as the far more likely scenario.
More
Fed seen on longer rate-cut pause after December jobs data | Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Interesting, but can it work in the
real world?
New battery idea gets lots of power out of unusual sulfur
chemistry
Rather
than being used as a storage material, the sulfur gives up electrons.
John Timmer – 7
Jan 2026 16:02
Anyone paying attention to battery research sees sulfur come up
frequently. That’s mostly because sulfur is a great storage material for
lithium, and it could lead to lithium batteries with impressive power
densities. But sulfur can participate in a wide range of chemical reactions,
which has made it difficult to prevent lithium-sulfur batteries from decaying
rapidly as the sulfur forms all sorts of unwanted materials. As a result,
despite decades of research, very few lithium-sulfur batteries have made it to
market.
But a team of Chinese researchers has managed to turn sulfur’s
complex chemistry into a strength, making it the primary electron donor in a
sodium-sulfur battery that also relies on chlorine for its chemistry. The
result, at least in the lab, is an impressive energy per weight with extremely
inexpensive materials.
Sulfur chemistry
Sulfur sits immediately below oxygen on the periodic table, so you
might think its chemistry would look similar. But that’s not the case. Like
oxygen, it can participate in covalent bonding in biological chemistry,
including in two essential amino acids. Also, like oxygen, it can accept
electrons from metals, as seen in some atomically thin materials that have been
studied. But it’s also willing to give electrons up, forming chemical compounds
with things like chlorine and oxygen.
It’s that last feature the researchers behind the new paper are
most interested in. Pure sulfur forms an eight-atom complex that can give up 32
total electrons under the right conditions. The trick was finding the right
conditions.
The system had a cathode of pure sulfur and an anode that was
simply a strip of aluminum that acted as a current collector. The electrolytes
the researchers tested contained a lot of aluminum, sodium, and chlorine
(typically something like eight Molar aluminum chloride and a 4.5 Molar
solution of some sodium salt). The aluminum helps stabilize the foil at the
anode, while the other two chemicals participate in the reactions that power
the battery.
When the battery starts discharging, the sulfur at the cathode
starts losing electrons and forming sulfur tetrachloride (SCl4),
using chloride it stole from the electrolyte. As the electrons flow into the
anode, they combine with the sodium, which plates onto the aluminum, forming a
layer of sodium metal. Obviously, this wouldn’t work with an aqueous
electrolyte, given how powerfully sodium reacts with water.
High capacity
To form a working battery, the researchers separated the two
electrodes using a glass fiber material. They also added a porous carbon
material to the cathode to keep the sulfur tetrachloride from diffusing into
the electrolyte. They used various techniques to confirm that sodium was being
deposited on the aluminum and that the reaction at the cathode was occurring
via sulfur dichloride intermediates. They also determined that sodium chloride
was a poor source of sodium ions, as it tended to precipitate out onto some of
the solid materials in the battery.
The battery was also fairly stable, surviving 1,400 cycles before
suffering significant capacity decay. Higher charging rates caused capacity to
decay more quickly, but the battery did a great job of holding a charge,
maintaining over 95 percent, even when idled for 400 days.
More
New battery idea
gets lots of power out of unusual sulfur chemistry - Ars Technica
UK engineering firm plunges into administration - valued at £300m
10 January 2026
A British engineering company once valued at £3million has plunged into
administration after months of uncertainty. Versarien plc, which makes
graphene for the clothing, automotive and aerospace sectors, confirmed it
appointed joint administrators on January 6, coming at a "great loss for
the district, county and country," according to its former CEO and
founder. It follows a turbulent few years for the company, marked by struggling
finances and a legal battle with its founder.
A statement from Versarien on January 6 said: "Following the
company's announcement on December 19, 2025, that a second notice of intention
to appoint administrators had been filed in the High Court of Justice, the
company now confirms that it has today appointed Andrew Knowles and Andrew
Poxon of Leonard Curtis as joint administrators of the parent company,
Versarien Plc."
More
UK engineering
firm plunges into administration - valued at £300m
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
In a time of universal deceit - telling the truth is a
revolutionary act.
George Orwell
No comments:
Post a Comment