Baltic Dry Index. 1877 24/12 Brent Crude 60.85
Spot Gold 4332 Spot Silver 70.98
US 2 Year Yield 3.47 +0,02
US Federal Debt. 38.551 trillion US GDP 31.024 trillion.
A happy, healthy and prosperous 2026 to all.
In the silver market, Comex, unable to deliver physical silver, thinks it’s January 1980 all over again, but is it? I suspect the CME paper silver Ponzi scheme is going to blow up in 2026.
But will silver also take down the AI bubble and the highly fragile US private credit/debt fraud?
Welcome to the start of a very iffy 2026.
Wall Street Ends 2025 Grinning
Despite Some Gloom
December 31, 2025 at 11:07 PM GMT
With 2025 at an end, the numbers show
the S&P 500 up more than 16% as the three-year bull market
continued unabated. The party kept pace despite well-worn cautions about a
looming artificial intelligence bubble and how its explosion would
exacerbate the fraught economic reality most Americans already face.
But for now, investors don’t appear overly
worried. The AI trade broadened as markets rode to riches on the shoulders of
the Magnificent 7 and the companies building their data centers. Three of the
index’s top 10 performers were data storage firms, among the main
beneficiaries of the hundreds of billions of dollars pledged by the massive AI
cloud service providers and their multibillionaire owners.
Still, off the trading floor some
consumers are worried that 2026 might witness trade war chickens coming home to
roost, with rising inflation to match rising unemployment and maybe a
recession to boot. Affordability is already an overarching complaint, and
the new year will bring grim tidings to those Americans who rely on the
Affordable Care Act for healthcare. Millions are set to lose access given the
expiration of pandemic-era subsidies.
On Wall Street though, as long as the
AI gravy train keeps chugging, the outlook for investors might
be just fine. For the full picture on equities in the year that was,
here are the biggest winners
and losers of 2025. —David
E. Rovella
Wall
Street Ends the Year Grinning Amid the Gloom: Evening Briefing Americas -
Bloomberg
China to restrict silver exports, echoing rare
earths playbook
Published Tue, Dec 30 2025 10:56 PM EST
BEIJING — China is set to tighten controls
on silver exports from
Thursday, expanding restrictions on the once-ordinary metal critical to the
U.S. industry and defense supply chains.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk criticized the
move over the weekend on his social media platform X, responding to a post
about the upcoming restrictions.
“This is not good. Silver is needed in many
industrial processes,” Musk wrote.
But the rules are not new. China’s
Commerce Ministry first announced
the new measures in
October to strengthen oversight of rare metals, on the same day
that U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in South
Korea. At the time, Beijing agreed to a one-year pause on
certain rare earth export controls, while the U.S. rolled back tariffs.
Earlier this month, China released a list
of 44 companies approved
to export silver under
the new measures in 2026 and 2027. The new rules in 2026 also restrict exports
of tungsten and antimony, materials
dominated by China’s supply chain and widely used in defense and advanced
technologies.
While China hasn’t explicitly announced a
blanket ban on silver exports, the state-run Securities Times on Tuesday cited an unnamed
industry insider,
who said the new policy formally elevates the metal from an ordinary commodity
to a strategic material, placing its export controls on the same regulatory
footing as rare earths.
The EU Chamber of Commerce in China found
in a flash survey of members in November that a majority of respondents have
been or expect to be affected by those Chinese export controls.
The U.S. added
silver to
its nationally designated list of critical minerals in November, citing its use
in electrical circuits, batteries, solar cells, and anti-bacterial medical
instruments. A separate U.S. analysis said China was one
of the world’s largest producers of silver in 2024, and also home to
one of the largest reserves.
China exported more than 4,600 tons of
silver in the first 11 months of the year, far more than the roughly 220 tons
of imports during that time, according to Wind Information, citing official
figures.
Two Chinese companies contacted
Canada-based Kuya Silver on Friday, offering to buy physical
silver at about $8 more than the market price at the time, CEO David
Stein confirmed to CNBC. He said one company was a manufacturer, and the other
was a large trading firm.
An Indian buyer approached Kuya on Monday
with an offer $10 above the market price, he added.
Conservative digital media outlet The Free
Press ran a column Tuesday by George Mason University economics professor Tyler
Cowen, who said the surge in silver and gold prices reflects investors shifting
away from the U.S. dollar.
He called the surge in prices “a flashing
warning for
the [U.S.] economy.”
The U.S. dollar index has fallen
by nearly 9.5% in 2025, its worst performance since 2017.
In contrast, silver has more than doubled
in price, on track for its best year since 1979 when the metal surged by nearly
470%. Silver prices retreated on Wednesday after touching a record peak above
$80 an ounce at the start of the week, with spot prices last trading at around
$73.
Gold has gained more than 60% so far this
year and is also on pace for its best year since 1979.
Bitcoin, sometimes promoted as an
alternative to gold as a store of value, was trading near $88,000 Wednesday
morning Beijing time, down by more than 5% for the year.
China to restrict
silver exports, echoing rare earths playbook
Gold, silver prices fall after CME raises precious
metals margins — again
Published Wed, Dec 31 2025 8:18 AM EST Updated
Wed, Dec 31 2025 11:41 AM EST
Gold and silver prices lost ground on
Wednesday as investors booked profits after a historic
annual rally and exchange operator CME Group hiked the margins on
precious metal futures for the second time in the space of a week.
Spot
gold prices dipped 0.1% to $4,339.89 per ounce at 8:50 a.m. ET,
extending losses in the run-up to the new year. The yellow metal notched a
one-week low in the previous session.
Spot
silver prices, meanwhile, tumbled 5.6% to $72.15 per ounce, paring
gains after climbing
above $80 for the first time at the start of the week.
The moves come at the end of a blockbuster
year for the precious metals.
Gold is up more than 64% year to date, on
track for its best annual performance since 1979 and third straight positive
year. The rally has been supported by a multitude of factors, including the
impact of U.S.
interest rate cuts, tariff tensions, and robust demand from exchange-traded
funds and central banks.
Silver has far outpaced gold in 2025. The
metal, which has endured wild
price swings in recent days, is on course for annual gains of nearly
150%. Like gold, this would be silver’s best yearly performance since 1979.
Silver’s price boom has stemmed from
a mix of low supply and high demand from India, as well as industrial needs and
tariffs.
CME Group, one of the world’s largest
trading floors for commodities, said Tuesday that margins for gold, silver, platinum
and palladium would increase again after the close of business Wednesday.
It said in a statement that the decision
was made “as per the normal review of market volatility to ensure adequate
collateral coverage.”
The notice means traders will need to put
up more cash on their bets to insure against the prospect of a default when
they take delivery of the contract.
CME Group raised margin requirements for
precious metals earlier in the week, prompting gold and silver futures to
fall sharply on Monday.
Gold
and silver prices fall after CME raises precious metals margins
In other news.
China accuses Netherlands of making ‘mistakes’
over chipmaker Nexperia
Published Wed, Dec 31 2025 3:24 AM EST
China has urged the Netherlands to swiftly
correct its “mistakes” over chipmaker Nexperia and restore
stability in the global semiconductor industry, in the latest development in a
dispute over technology transfer.
In September, the Dutch government invoked
a Cold War-era law to effectively take control of Nexperia, a Chinese-owned
chipmaker based in the Netherlands. The unusual move was reportedly made after
the U.S. raised security concerns.
In response, China moved to block its
products from leaving China, which, in turn, raised the alarm among global
automakers as they faced shortages of the chipmaker’s components.
On Wednesday, a spokesperson for China’s
Commerce Ministry said that the Netherlands should “immediately correct its
mistakes and clear the obstacles to restoring the stability and security of the
global semiconductor supply chain.”
“What is perplexing is that, faced with
the anxiety and unease of the global industry, the Netherlands remains
indifferent and stubbornly insists on its own way, showing absolutely no
responsible attitude towards the security of the global semiconductor supply
chain, and taking no substantive action whatsoever,” the spokesperson said in a
statement, according to a Google translation.
A spokesperson for the Dutch government
was not immediately available to comment when contacted by CNBC on Wednesday
morning. Dutch Economy Minister Vincent Karremans has repeatedly defended his decision
to intervene in the company over recent weeks.
Nexperia manufactures billions of
so-called foundation chips — transistors, diodes and power management
components — that are produced in Europe, assembled and tested in China, and
then re-exported to customers in Europe and elsewhere.
The low-tech, inexpensive chips are needed
in almost every device that uses electricity. In cars, they’re used to connect
the battery to motors, for lights and sensors, for braking systems, airbag
controllers, entertainment systems and electric windows.
Auto industry groups have said that
disruptions in the supply chain for Nexperia parts have not yet been
fundamentally resolved, meaning that component availability remains uncertain.
Japan’s Nissan and German
auto supplier Bosch are among
the firms to have warned about looming shortages.
Speaking to CNBC last month, a
spokesperson for the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), which
represents Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz Group and BMW among hundreds of others, warned of
elevated risks to supply, “particularly for the first quarter” of 2026.
China accuses
Netherlands of making 'mistakes' over chipmaker Nexperia
USDA details $12 billion farm aid package favoring
rice, cotton; soy farmers warn of strain
CHICAGO, Dec 31 (Reuters) - The U.S.
Department of Agriculture released details on Wednesday about how much row crop
farmers will receive next year from a $12 billion aid program, but soybean
growers say such payments fall short of helping those hurt by low crop prices
and trade disputes.
The Farmer Bridge Assistance program is
expected to distribute $11 billion in one-time payments to farmers, who will be
paid on a per-acre rate if they planted one of the 19 commodity crops
identified as being eligible for the program, USDA said in a statement, opens new tab on Wednesday.
U.S. farmers produced massive corn and
soybean harvests this fall amid a global glut of grain, and lost billions of
dollars amid falling crop prices. Soybean farmers were particularly hard hit by
the loss of soybean sales to China, by far the world's top buyer, when it
turned to South American suppliers during stalled trade talks.
While the aid is expected to help farmers
prepare for the next planting season, growers and agricultural economists say
the payments are a
fraction of farm losses and will not rescue the sagging U.S. farm
economy.
The highest per-acre payments will be paid
to rice farmers, who could receive $132.89 an acre; cotton farmers, at $117.35
an acre; and oat farmers, at $81.75 an acre. Meanwhile, farmers are eligible
for a payment of $44.36 per corn acre, $30.88 per soybean acre and $39.35 per
wheat acre. The payments are calculated using 2025 planted acres,
cost-of-production data, and market conditions, USDA said.
More
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
The
countries most at risk of recession in 2026
December
31, 2025
Regional
struggles, global pressures and the increasingly wide reach of new technology
are set, once again, to alter how each nation navigates the world economy’s
choppy waters in 2026.
This
pessimism was aptly summarized in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF)
latest World Economic Outlook. Subtitled “Global Economy in Flux, Prospects
Remain Dim,” the organization slightly revised growth projections upward
because of a less volatile and unclear trading landscape but nevertheless
maintained its forecasts of a slowdown compared with recent years.
“Uncertainty
about the stability and trajectory of the global economy remains acute,” the
report read, adding that policy changes, “financial market fragilities” and
structural pressure on global labor forces mean risks remain “tilted to the
downside.”
Which
Countries Are At Risk Of A Recession In 2026?
United
States
President
Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements in April sent markets into
a tailspin and businesses scrambling to stockpile goods before the duties went
into effect while raising the specter of a recession only months into his
second term. Fears worsened when advance estimates showed the economy
contracted in the first three months of 2025 but have since been somewhat
tempered thanks to strong GDP growth in the second and third quarters.
However,
beyond immediate policy shocks such as tariffs—the effects of which will
continue to be felt in 2026—experts have pointed to other underlying corrosives
that could tip America toward a downturn next year.
“Labor
markets here are atrophying,” financial analyst Gary Shilling told Newsweek,
noting that
a slowdown in hiring has
combined with a worrying
increase in job cuts.
Shilling,
among the first experts to raise concerns about the housing bubble that
preceded the Great Recession that began in late 2007, went on to say that U.S.
consumers are “up
to their eyeballs in debt” and described the current economy as a
“flattened-down environment” that any kind of shock could push into crisis,
most notably the AI bubble bursting.
AI
stocks now account for one-third of the S&P 500 in terms of overall market
cap, per Bank of England estimates, and investments in the technology made up
more than 90 percent of GDP growth in the first half of 2025, according to
Harvard economist Jason Furman. As a result, a sharp correction would ripple
through the entire economy and impact all of its constituents.
Dean
Baker, economist and co-founder of the Center for Economic and Policy Research
(CEPR), told Newsweek: “The biggest risk, first and foremost to the
U.S. economy, is a collapse of the AI bubble. The loss of trillions of dollars
in stock wealth will cause consumption to fall.
“Also,
since there is heavy leverage associated with both AI and crypto we will almost
certainly see some major stress in the financial system. There will be
secondary effects in Europe and elsewhere in the world, but the U.S. will be by
far the biggest victim of a collapse.”
More
The countries most
at risk of recession in 2026
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
AI device with ion gel and graphene cuts machine learning power
use 100-fold
30 December 2025
In recent years, power consumption by
machine learning technologies, represented by deep learning and generative
artificial intelligence (AI), has increased exponentially, creating a serious
social challenge. To address this problem, demand is growing for AI devices
with low power consumption and high computational performance.
"Physical reservoirs"—AI devices that perform efficient
brain-inspired information processing called reservoir computing—have attracted
attention due to their low computational load (the required number of
multiply-accumulate operations) and low power consumption, but their lower
computational performance compared to software processing has been a drawback.
A research team from NIMS, Tokyo
University of Science, and Kobe University developed a physical reservoir
device utilizing ions that achieved high computational performance comparable
to that of deep learning while reducing the computational load by orders of
magnitude. Their research is published in ACS Nano.
By combining graphene, which has high
electron mobility and ambipolar behavior, and an ion gel, various responses
with different speeds (ions and electrons moving in various manners) develop
through complex interactions, enabling the device to respond to input signals
with time constants (rates of change) that vary over an extremely wide range.
The device exhibited the highest-level
computational performance among conventional physical reservoirs, comparable to
that of deep learning performed using software, while succeeding in reducing
the computational load to about 1/100.
More information: Daiki
Nishioka et al, Two Orders of Magnitude Reduction in Computational Load
Achieved by Ultrawideband Responses of an Ion-Gating Reservoir, ACS
Nano (2025). DOI: 10.1021/acsnano.5c06174
AI device with ion gel and graphene cuts machine learning power use
100-fold
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the
Capitalist System was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of
inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important
part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate,
but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it
actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches
strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing
distribution of wealth.
John Maynard Keynes
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