Baltic
Dry Index. 1762 +0.01 Brent Crude 65.97
Spot Gold 5055 Spot Silver 106.59
US 2 Year Yield 3.60 -0.01
US Federal Debt. 38.655 trillion US GDP 31.097 trillion.
True, governments can reduce the rate of interest in the short run. They can issue additional paper money. They can open the way to credit expansion by the banks. They can thus create an artificial boom and the appearance of prosperity. But such a boom is bound to collapse soon or later and to bring about a depression.
Ludwig von Mises
A new trading week and a difficult trading week at that. The US central bank meets Tuesday and Wednesday. They are expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Gold and silver continue to rise as much of the rest of the world continues to dedollarise.
President Trump continues to destabilise the global economy.
A US armada is headed towards Iran.
Asia-Pacific stocks trade mixed as geopolitical
worries keep investors on edge
Published Sun, Jan 25 2026 7:03 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed Monday
as investors assessed ongoing geopolitical concerns.
On Sunday stateside, Canadian Prime
Minister Mark Carney said that his country has no intention of pursuing a
free trade agreement with China, after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Ottawa if it
signed a trade deal with China.
“Canada respects our engagements, our
commitments. We have commitments under CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico
Agreement) that not to pursue free trade agreements with non-market economies
without prior notification. We have no intention of doing that with China or
with other non-market economy,” Carney said.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 1.52%, while
the Topix declined 1.76%. South Korea’s Kospi added 0.64% while the small-cap
Kosdaq advanced 2.28%.
The Japanese yen last strengthened 0.45%
to trade about 155.01 against the dollar.
Investors will continue keeping a close
eye on Japanese stocks and the yen after Japan’s
prime minister signaled to counter speculative market activity on a
sharp yen strengthening Friday, warning that authorities stand ready to act if
volatility intensifies.
“The yen rallied on rising risk of
intervention, with spillovers to the broad USD. While a cautiously hawkish
stance from the FOMC along with resilient data should offer some support, a
potential yen intervention can aggravate a weak flow picture for the dollar,”
Barclays’ economists wrote in a note on Sunday.
Hong Kong Hang Seng index slid 0.26%,
while mainland’s CSI 300 added 0.27%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.13%.
Spot gold prices rose to a record high
above $5,000 per ounce as investors rush to safe-haven assets amid geopolitical
uncertainties, also helped by a weaker greenback. The U.S. dollar index fell
0.52% to 90.087.
Separately, the Singapore dollar
strengthened to 1.271 per dollar, its highest in over a decade.
U.S. futures traded lower on Monday as
traders braced for a big week, with key earnings reports and a U.S. monetary
policy meeting.
Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost
131 points, or 0.27%. S&P
500 and Nasdaq-100
futures shed 0.33% and 0.48%, respectively.
Last Friday in the U.S., the main
benchmarks closed mixed, as the Nasdaq Composite extended
its gains amid easing geopolitical fears while the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.28% and
settled at 23,501.24, while the blue-chip Dow lost 285.30 points, or 0.58%,
closing at 49,098.71. A nearly 4% slide in Goldman Sachs weighed on the
30-stock index.
The broad market S&P 500 eked out a
marginal gain of 0.03% to end at 6,915.61.
Asia-Pacific
markets: Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, Kospi, gold, Canada
Another day another high: Gold surges past $5,000
as investors seek shelter from global risks
Published Sun, Jan 25 2026 7:24 PM EST
Gold climbed to a fresh all-time high,
crossing $5,000 an ounce on Monday and extending its record-breaking run as
investors seek the safety of the yellow metal amid rising geopolitical tensions
and global fiscal risks.
Spot
gold prices and U.S.
gold futures for February gained 1.2%, trading at $5,042 and $5,036 an
ounce, respectively.
The precious metal’s surge comes as recent
flashpoints from Greenland and Venezuela to the Middle East underscore higher
geopolitical risk, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a hedge against uncertainty.
“The recent further leg up in gold and
silver prices has arrived on the back of geoeconomics issues related to
Greenland,” HSBC wrote in a note last week.
Silver also
rallied Monday, with spot prices jumping 3% to $106.1 per ounce, also
benefiting from industrial demand.
Analysts at Union Bancaire Privée said
Friday that prices have rallied on the back of sustained demand from both
institutional and retail buyers.
“We anticipate that gold should enjoy
another strong year, reflecting ongoing central bank and retail investment
demand, with a year-end target price of USD 5,200 per ounce,” UBP said.
Goldman Sachs sees the demand base for
gold to have broadened beyond traditional channels. Western ETF holdings have
climbed by about 500 tonnes since the start of 2025, while newer instruments
used to hedge macro-policy risks, including physical purchases by
high-net-worth families, have become an increasingly important source of
demand.
The investment bank recently lifted its
December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 an ounce, up from $4,900
previously, arguing that hedges against global macro and policy risks have
become “sticky,” effectively lifting the starting point for gold prices this
year.
Central bank purchases also remain robust.
Goldman estimates central-bank purchases are now averaging around 60 tonnes a
month, far above the pre-2022 average of 17 tonnes, with emerging-market
central banks continuing to shift reserves into gold.
More
Gold
surges past $5,000 to a fresh record
Wall St Week Ahead Fed, big earnings week loom for
markets as global tensions muddy outlook
January 24, 2026 2:00 PM GMT
NEW YORK, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Investors who
have been consumed by geopolitical turmoil to start the year may switch focus
in the coming week to prospects for artificial intelligence-related profits
and the path for interest rates, with a huge crop of earnings reports and a
Federal Reserve meeting on tap.
U.S. stocks hit a rocky patch this week
due to fallout from President Donald Trump's aggressive stance to acquire
Greenland, which threatened a new trade war with Europe.
Markets initially reeled, with stocks,
bond prices and the U.S. dollar all swooning, an unusual occurrence. But major
equity indexes rebounded later in the week after Trump backed off tariff
threats,
suggesting a deal was in sight for Greenland.
"It's been a little bit of a short
but steep roller-coaster ride over the past several days," said Yung-Yu
Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group. "I don't
know that it's completely behind us, but at least the acute phase seems to be
behind us."
INVESTORS SEEK INSIGHT ON AI BENEFITS TO
PROFITS
The upcoming reporting week could turn
attention to the outlook for U.S. corporate profits, with earnings overall
expected to rise substantially this year including gains from a wider group of
companies.
About one-fifth of the S&P 500 is due
to report quarterly results, including Apple (AAPL.O), opens
new tab,
Microsoft (MSFT.O),
opens new tab,
Meta Platforms (META.O), opens
new tab and
Tesla (TSLA.O),
opens new tab,
four of the "Magnificent 7" megacap companies.
Coming off the third straight year of
double-digit returns for the S&P 500, the benchmark index is up about 1%
to start 2026. The index's valuation is also above 22 times expected earnings
for S&P 500 companies, well higher than its long-term average of 15.9, so
"the earnings bar had better be met," said Chris Galipeau, senior
market strategist at Franklin Templeton.
----A critical theme this earnings season
is whether companies are starting to reap benefits from AI-related investments.
Doubts that massive spending on data centers and other infrastructure would
yield returns weighed on tech and other AI-related stocks late in 2025, after
that group had been a key driver for the bull market in U.S. stocks that is
entering its fourth year.
"It's important just to hear from the
major companies in the S&P 500 that they are continuing to push these uses
and initiatives forward for AI so that people believe that it is not just a
story of building and infrastructure," said PNC's Ma.
FED RATE OUTLOOK, INDEPENDENCE IN FOCUS
Investors widely expect the Fed to hold
rates steady when it gives its monetary policy decision on Wednesday at the
end of its two-day meeting. After the U.S. central bank lowered rates by a
quarter percentage point at each of its last three meetings of 2025, Fed Funds
futures are pricing in at least one more such cut this year, according to LSEG
data.
"We expect the Federal Open Market
Committee to take an extended pause because the fed funds rate is close to
neutral, downside risks to the labor market have begun to ease, and inflation
has peaked," Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics,
said in a note.
The near-term rate outlook could take a
back seat to issues around the Fed's political independence. The meeting
follows the revelation this month that Fed Chair Jerome Powell faced legal
threats from
the Trump administration, which Powell called a "pretext" to gain
the dramatic rate cuts Trump wants.
Meanwhile, Trump is mulling his decision
on a nominee to replace Powell, whose term as chair ends in May. A decision
could come soon.
Investors will remain on guard for
geopolitical wildcards or other policy proposals from the administration.
"If the Greenland situation, for
example ... were to go off the rails, and then we've got the tariff threat and
all that sort of thing, that would certainly dent confidence and probably put
the tape under pressure," Galipeau said.
Next, President Trump threatens 100 percent tariffs on Canada’s exports. If it happens, USA precious metals imports from Canada would stop, leaving US manufacturers scrambling for alternative supply. But at what cost?
And let’s not get started on the cost of replacing 4 million barrels of Canadian heavy crude oil exports a day with Venezuelan heavy crude, assuming Venezuela could even provide it.
Another TACO coming up? But having offended and insulted Canada, Britain and the EU over Greenland and Afghanistan, who in Canada, GB and the EU is going to go out of their way to buy US exports and US Treasury debt? In just over a year, Pax Americana has been largely undermined.
" We must Hang Together Or Surely We Shall Hang Separately"
Thomas Jefferson.
Trump threatens Canada with 100% tariffs over deal
with China
24 January 2026
Donald Trump has
threatened to “immediately” hit Canada with a 100
percent tariff on all goods and products, should they make a deal with China.
“If Governor Carney thinks he is going to
make Canada a “Drop Off Port” for China to send goods and products into the
United States, he is sorely mistaken,” the president wrote in a Truth Social
post Saturday morning.
“China will eat Canada alive, completely
devour it, including the destruction of their businesses, social fabric, and
general way of life. If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be
hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the
U.S.A.”
The new “strategic partnership” between
China and Canada was announced by Prime Minister
Mark Carney earlier
this month and promises to expand trade and mutual investment between the two
nations and focus on areas such as agriculture, agri-food, energy, and finance.
Following a meeting between two leaders,
which marked the first visit by a Canadian leader to China in nearly a decade,
Carney announced that Canada expects China to lower canola tariffs to 15 per
cent by 1 March. Ottawa, in return, will allow 49,000 Chinese EVs into the
Canadian market.
Trump initially had said that agreement
was what Carney “should be doing and it’s a good thing for him to sign a trade
deal” before seemingly changing his mind Saturday.
Trump threatens Canada with 100% tariffs over deal with China
Trump's 100% Tariff RETALIATION: Carney Strikes Back – $2T at Risk [Full
Timeline]
Trump's 100% Tariff RETALIATION: Carney
Strikes Back – $2T at Risk [Full Timeline]
A China-Europe energy alliance could deliver a new
world order
Xi Jinping has seized on the transatlantic
rift, leaving Donald Trump’s global agenda in the dust
23 January 2026 7:00am GMT
Europe and China are natural allies in the
world’s emerging bloc of electrotech economies.
Both are large net importers of oil and
fossil fuels. Both have a strong incentive to end this dangerous vulnerability
as fast as possible.
The new line of strategic cleavage in
global affairs is the clash of interests between those betting on total
electrification, led by China, versus those betting on the old energy order,
now led with ideological fervour by Donald Trump’s
America.
Three quarters of humanity live in
countries that run fossil deficits on their trade accounts and are bleeding
their national wealth to the other quarter, which collects the rent.
This has been tolerated for lack of
alternatives and because global shipping lanes have been secure. It will not be
tolerated any longer.
The split has consequences that go far
beyond primary energy. It determines how countries will shape their transport
and industrial systems over the next twenty years.
Trump has sharpened the issue by seizing
Venezuela’s oil and
openly declaring his aim to gain a global stranglehold over fossil energy. This
is coupled with an equally brazen pattern of weaponising commerce and supply
chains to lash out at anybody who thwarts him.
Trump’s national security strategy exhorts
Europe to reward Vladimir
Putin,
and openly states the goal of “cultivating resistance to Europe’s current
trajectory”.
Given that, it is no longer tolerable for
Britain and Europe to maintain such heavy reliance on imports of oil and
liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the US or from any country under Trump’s spell
or subject to his coercive reach.
More
A China-Europe
energy alliance could deliver a new world order
In other news.
Claude Is Taking the AI World by Storm, and Even Non-Nerds Are
Blown Away
Developers
and hobbyists are comparing the viral moment for Anthropic’s Claude Code to the
launch of generative AI
Jan. 17, 2026 12:00 pm ET
They call it getting “Claude-pilled.”
It’s the moment software engineers,
executives and investors turn their work over to Anthropic’s Claude AI—and then
witness a thinking machine of shocking capability, even in an age awash in
powerful artificial-intelligence tools.
Many coders spent their holiday breaks
on a “Claude bender,” testing out the capabilities of the latest Anthropic
model, Claude Opus 4.5, which they used within a desktop coding tool called
Claude Code. Tech companies have been incorporating code-writing AI into their
workflows for years, and prior models were often compared with a junior
software developer. The buzz around Claude’s latest incarnation is something
different.
Malte Ubl is chief technology
officer at Vercel, which helps develop and host websites and apps for users of
Claude Code and other such tools. He said he used the tool to finish a complex
project in a week that would’ve taken him about a year without AI. Ubl spent 10
hours a day on his vacation building new software and said each run gave him an
endorphin rush akin to playing a Vegas slot machine.
The Claude zeal has spread widely this
month, even to non-engineers. Many took to social media to describe the process
of building their first software program without ever having learned to code.
And despite the “code” in the name, people are using Claude Code for everything
from health-data analysis to expense-report compiling as well.
Some described a feeling of awe followed
by sadness at the realization that the program could easily replicate expertise
they had built up over an entire career.
“It’s amazing, and it’s also scary,”
said Andrew Duca, chief executive of Awaken Tax, a cryptocurrency tax
platform. Duca has been coding since he was in middle school. “I spent my whole
life developing this skill, and it’s literally one-shotted by Claude
Code.”
Anthropic often shares the spotlight
with OpenAI. The two leading AI-model startups, which both lose billions of
dollars, are focused on different markets. OpenAI has a broad, global user base of consumers
and has a far higher number of total users, while Anthropic is focused on
business customers. As of mid-2025, Anthropic had a larger market share of
enterprise users, according to Menlo Ventures.
More
Anthropic’s Claude Code Has the AI World Buzzing: ‘It’s Amazing and Also
Scary’ - WSJ
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Hard Times in the Delta as Farmers Consider Letting Crops Rot
Prices for nearly
every major U.S. crop are below what it costs to grow them. But a drop in rice
prices means another blow to farmers in Mississippi’s agricultural belt.
Jan. 25, 2026
Jack Westerfield stood
ankle deep atop 30 feet of unhusked rice, his gray T-shirt and jeans dusty with
starchy powder. He sounded distressed.
“What am I supposed to do
with 2.2 million pounds of rice?” he asked, raising his voice to be heard over
the noisy industrial fans drying the rice on his farm in Merigold, Miss. “I’m
serious. What am I supposed to do?”
It wasn’t a rhetorical
question. Mr. Westerfield had even considered whether he should dump the grains
onto a field to rot.
Across the country,
farmers are struggling. Prices for nearly every major crop are below what it
costs to grow them. Much attention has been paid to Midwestern soybean growers,
whose crop was at the heart of the trade
war between the United States and China. But farmers in Mississippi are
perhaps worse off than farmers in the rest of the country. Rice is one of their
biggest crops, and almost no one is buying.
Federation meeting, a
group representing farmers, participants floated the idea of a government
program that would pay producers to destroy the harvested rice sitting in their
bins. A similar program was put in place during the 1980s farm crisis, when the Agriculture
Department paid farmers to idle land and reduce huge surpluses of
crops.
“We are making a lot of
good crops, and losing money,” said Gwin Smith, the longtime owner of Rutledge
Investment Company, a Mississippi agricultural land broker.
The Mississippi Delta is
a 200-mile-long pocket of fertile soil between the Mississippi and Yazoo
Rivers. But farming costs are high. Most crops must be planted in a short
window between spring rains and summer heat, and it is always a race in the
fall to harvest and prepare fields before winter rains render them muddy and
unworkable. This forces up labor costs during those periods.
And unlike Midwest
summers, when rains provide most of the water for crops, drier Mississippi
summers mean crops must be irrigated, requiring equipment and expensive fuel to
power pumping.
Mississippi’s biggest
advantage, besides good soil, is the diversity of things that can be grown.
While most of the Midwest grows only corn, soybeans and wheat, Mississippi
farmers can grow those crops as well as cotton and rice. Whenever one crop is
selling at a premium, farmers will shift to growing more of it.
More
Hard
Times in the Mississippi Delta as Farmers Consider Letting Crops Rot - The New
York Times
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Lufthansa
becomes first European airline to ban power banks - and how it will affect more
carriers
22 January 2026
Lufthansa has become the
first European airline to ban the use of power banks on flights.
The German carrier previously
allowed passengers to use the useful tech on board, but after a spate of
incidents the policy has now changed.
Power banks have caused
issues on several flights and one set fire on an Air China A312 Airbus last year after it
overheated.
Crew members managed to put
the flames out and there were no reported injuries, but it isn't the only time
a portable charger has set alight.
Another set fire on a KLM
plane in August travelling from São
Paulo to Amsterdam.
Again, crew members put out
the flames but the repeated issues have caused airlines to adjust their
policies.
Lufthansa has now changed its
policy on power bank usage during flights.
Passengers will be able to
bring the tech in their cabin luggage, but they won't be able to charge their
devices with them on board anymore.
They are still banned from
being carried in checked luggage, too.
In the cabin, power banks
must be stored in hand luggage under the seat, or on the person. They are no
longer permitted to be stowed in the overhead compartments.
'Personal electronic devices
and batteries are classed as dangerous goods. This is because, if damaged, they
can generate heat, short-circuit and start a fire,' the airline states on its
website.
Transport approval is
required for power banks above 100 Wh and only two are allowed per
person.
'Charging and using power
banks is prohibited. An exception is made for use with approved medical
devices,' the regulation reads.
It continues, 'Power banks
must not be stowed in the overhead locker above the seats.
'For safety reasons, please
store your power banks under the seat in front of you or in its seat pocket, on
your person or in your hand luggage.'
Lufthansa adds, 'Protect your
power bank against damage and short circuiting, by using the original
packaging, for example.'
Travellers who wish to bring
a power bank larger than the restrictions must notify the carrier beforehand
and get approval.
The new rules impact all
Lufthansa flights, EuroNews reports, including routes operated by affiliated
or Lufthansa-owned planes.
The move could see even more
airlines restrict the use of power banks as aviation safety organisations
across the world look into safety measures.
UAE carrier Emirates became
the first airline to ban power banks completely
last year, and a number of
airlines have put strict rules in place that prohibit passengers from bringing
power banks in checked luggage going into the hold.
Lufthansa becomes first European airline to ban power banks - and how it
will affect more carriers
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
History has witnessed the failure of many endeavors to impose
peace by war, cooperation by coercion, unanimity by slaughtering dissidents....
A lasting order cannot be established by bayonets.
Ludwig von Mises
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