Baltic Dry Index. 1762 +0.01 Brent Crude 65.17
Spot Gold 5084 Spot Silver 109.89
US 2 Year Yield 3.56 -0.04
US Federal Debt. 38.659 trillion US GDP 31.100 trillion.
It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family, never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy...What is prudence in the conduct of every private family, can scarce be folly in that of a great kingdom.
Adam Smith. The Wealth Of Nations.
Little need for my input this morning as the articles below speak loudly about what is driving markets as the rest of the world adjusts to erratic Trump presidency 2.0.
Today, GB Prime Minister Starmer heads off to Beijing to try to mend UK-China strained relations.
S&P 500 futures are little changed after index
rises ahead of this week’s Big Tech earnings:
Updated Tue, Jan 27 2026 7:45 PM EST
S&P 500 futures were
near the flatline on Monday night after the major averages started the busy
earnings week on a positive note. Investors are also waiting for the Federal
Reserve’s rate decision, due later this week.
Futures tied to the broad-market index
were little changed, while Nasdaq
100 futures added 0.2%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost
156 points, or 0.3%, weighed down by a decline in UnitedHealth shares.
In extended trading, shares of several
big-name health insurers plunged after the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services proposed
raising payments to Medicare Advantage insurers by a net average of just 0.09%
in 2027. Shares of Humana slid
12%, while CVS Health lost
almost 10%. News of CMS keeping rates relatively flat next year was first
reported by The Wall Street Journal.
President Donald Trump also said late
Monday that he would
raise tariffs on South Korean autos, pharmaceuticals and lumber from
15% to 25%. He cited a delay in South Korea’s legislature approving a trade
deal the nation had reached with the U.S. last summer.
Stocks kicked off the week strong, aided
by gains in major technology names. The S&P 500 advanced 0.5% in
Monday’s regular session, while the Dow gained about 314 points,
or 0.6%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq
Composite climbed 0.4% as Apple, Meta Platforms and Microsoft rose ahead of their
earnings reports scheduled later this week.
More than 90 S&P 500 companies are
slated to report quarterly earnings this week. They include “Magnificent Seven”
giants Meta, Tesla and Microsoft — which are due Wednesday. Apple will share
its results on Thursday.
Earnings season has been strong so far,
with about three out of four S&P 500 companies beating expectations, per
FactSet.
“Top of mind is earnings season. We got
200 companies reporting in the next two weeks and so far, so good,” said Adam
Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate Research. “I think the real issue is that
the second half of the year estimates are way too high. And so the question is
can we keep the momentum here through April guidance? I think yes.”
Looming this week is the Fed’s first
policy decision of the year. The central bank is widely expected to keep its
key rate at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%, but traders will search for clues
on when future cuts may come. Fed funds futures trading still suggests there
could be two quarter percentage point cuts by the end of 2026, according to
the CME FedWatch Tool.
On the economic data front Tuesday,
traders will be watching for the latest consumer confidence reading and home
price data.
Companies set to report quarterly results
on Tuesday include American Airlines and Boeing.
Stock
market today: Live updates
Gold, silver rise to near record highs on
safe-haven demand
January 27, 2026 5:30 AM GMT
Jan 27 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Tuesday,
after breaking through the $5,100 mark for the first time in the previous
session, as geopolitical uncertainty underpinned safe-haven demand, while
silver also hovered near all-time highs.
Spot gold climbed 0.9% to $5,060.36 per
ounce, as of 0507 GMT, after scaling a record $5,110.50 on Monday.
"Trump's disruptive policy approach
this year is playing into the hands of precious metals as a defensive play. The
threats of higher tariffs to Canada and South Korea are doing enough to keep
gold a safe-haven choice," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market
analyst.
Escalating trade tensions, U.S. President
Donald Trump said on Monday he would raise tariffs
on South Korean auto, lumber, and pharmaceutical imports to 25%, while
criticizing Seoul for failing to enact a trade deal with Washington.
This was after he threatened tariffs on
Canada in the backdrop of a thawing relationship between the two countries,
following Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney's visit to China earlier this
month.
China's Zijin Gold (2259.HK),
opens new tab will buy Canada's
Allied Gold (AAUC.TO), opens new tab for about C$5.5 billion
($4.02 billion) in cash, amid record high prices for gold. Gold's unprecedented
rally has boosted miners' margins and cash flows, fuelling consolidation.
"The intervention from U.S. and
Japanese officials to steady the yen has dented the dollar and has been a boon
for the gold price," KCM's Waterer added.
A looming U.S. government shutdown and
Trump's erratic policymaking also pressured the greenback, making the
dollar-priced gold cheaper for overseas consumers.
---- Spot silver jumped 4% to $108.05 an ounce,
after hitting a record high of $117.69 on Monday. The white metal has already
surged 53% so far this year.
Spot platinum tumbled 4% to $2,647.39 per
ounce after hitting a record $2,918.80 in the previous session, while palladium
fell 1.4% to $1,953.69.
Gold,
silver rise to near record highs on safe-haven demand | Reuters
Gold has more room to run as geopolitics, cenbank
buying fuel gains, analysts say
January 26, 2026 5:48 AM GMT
Jan 26 (Reuters) - Analysts expect spot
gold prices, which hit a record high above $5,000 per ounce on Monday, to climb
further toward $6,000 this year on mounting global tensions as well as strong
central-bank and retail demand.
Gold raced
to a peak of $5,092.70 as geopolitical and economic risks rattled
markets. The safe-haven metal is up more than 17% this year, after soaring
64% in 2025.
The London Bullion Market Association's
annual precious metals forecast survey shows analysts projecting gold rising as
high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026.
Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026
gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900.
Independent analyst Ross Norman expects a
high of $6,400 this year, with an average of $5,375.
"The only certainty at the moment
seems to be uncertainty, and that's playing very much into gold's hands,"
Norman said.
GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
Gold's
recent rally has been fuelled by geopolitical tensions, from the
U.S.–NATO friction over Greenland and tariff
uncertainty to rising doubts over the independence of
the U.S. Federal Reserve, among others.
"With the upcoming U.S. mid-term
elections, political uncertainty may increase further. At the same time,
persistent concerns about over-valued equity markets are likely to reinforce
portfolio diversification flows into gold," said Philip Newman, a director
at Metals Focus.
"After crossing the $5,000/ounce
milestone, we expect further upside," he added.
ROBUST CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES
Central-bank gold buying, a key driver of
prices in 2025, is expected to stay strong this year.
Goldman
Sachs forecasts purchases to average 60 metric tons a month as
emerging-market central banks continue diversifying reserves into gold.
Poland's central bank, which held 550 tons
of gold at end-2025, aims to lift reserves to 700 tons, Governor Adam Glapinski
said this month.
More
Gold
has more room to run as geopolitics, cenbank buying fuel gains, analysts say |
Reuters
Fed meeting likely to be overshadowed by threats
to central bank's independence
By Howard Schneider January 26, 2026 11:14 AM GMT
WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The Federal
Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady this week at a meeting
overshadowed by a Trump administration criminal investigation of U.S. central
bank chief Jerome Powell, an evolving effort to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook,
and the coming nomination of a successor to take over for Powell in May.
Only three scheduled policy meetings
remain in Powell's eight-year stint as the world's top central banker, but the
typically smooth transition has become a potentially disruptive period. Powell
faces the controversial decision of whether to stay on as a Fed governor under his
successor, the Supreme Court may rule whether Cook becomes the first Fed
governor removed by a president, and President Donald Trump's nominee to lead
the central bank must convince U.S. senators he won't be captive to Trump's
demands.
With so much in motion - and the Fed's
independence at stake - the policy debate seems almost secondary, although
analysts at this point largely expect the central bank's institutional
guardrails to hold. Market-based inflation
expectations and
longer-term U.S. bond yields have for now shown no widespread fear about the
Fed's future.
"It's not possible to view the
actions of the next Fed chair as separate from the economic environment or
their ability to influence other FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)
participants," said Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist with SGH Macro Advisors.
Indeed, whoever succeeds Powell will still
need to convince other U.S. central bank governors and the five voting Fed
regional bank presidents of the need for any rate cuts, regardless of Trump's wishes.
More
Fed meeting likely
to be overshadowed by threats to central bank's independence | Reuters
In other news, a rapidly changing global
economy.
1 big thing: Why the Japanese bond drama matters
January 26, 2026
The financial headlines overnight were full of
speculation about currency interventions by the Japanese and U.S. governments.
That's really a small piece of a bigger story — one with serious consequences
for the global economy.
The big picture: Japan has played
an outsize role in the global financial system over the last two decades, with
its massive pile of low-interest debt and major institutional investors looking
to deploy capital for higher returns.
- Those
underpinnings are now coming into question. Should they unravel more
fully, it could throttle capital inflows to the rest of the world and
therefore lower asset values and lift long-term rates.
- It
raises the prospect of a world where bond investors are more jittery about
buying the debt of countries with large ongoing fiscal deficits, like a
certain global superpower celebrating its 250th birthday this year.
Driving the news: The yen soared
1.2% against the U.S. dollar overnight, following a steep sell-off last week,
as traders saw hints that a government intervention to prop up the currency
could be imminent.
- "We
will take all necessary measures to address speculative and highly
abnormal movements," Japanese finance ministry official Atsushi
Mimura said yesterday, per Bloomberg.
- It
comes after a week of wild gyrations in both the currency and longer-term
Japanese bonds, which sold off sharply last Monday and Tuesday, pushing
borrowing rates sharply higher — with spillover effects to U.S. assets.
More
Carney says Canada not pursuing free trade deal with China as
Trump threatens 100% tariffs
Published Sun, Jan 25 2026 8:45 PM EST Updated
Sun, Jan 25 2026 8:53 PM EST
Canada has “no intention” of pursuing a
free trade deal with China, Prime Minister Mark Carney said, after U.S.
President Donald Trump threatened to slap punitive tariffs on Ottawa.
Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Carney said that the country respects its
obligations under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, known as CUSMA in
Canada and the USMCA in the U.S., and will not pursue a free trade agreement
without notifying the other two parties.
Carney’s remarks come after Trump
threatened to put a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Ottawa “makes a deal”
with Beijing.
“If Governor Carney thinks he is going
to make Canada a ‘Drop Off Port’ for China to send goods and products into the
United States, he is sorely mistaken,” Trump posted on Truth Social Saturday.
The remarks come against the backdrop of
rising tensions between the U.S. and Canada, with Trump last week withdrawing
the invitation to Ottawa to join his “Board of Peace,” after Carney in his
address at the World Economic Forum in Davos warned against economic coercion
by the world’s superpowers.
While Carney did not name any country,
Trump said on the sidelines of the WEF that “Canada lives because of the United
States. Remember that, Mark, the next time you make your statements.”
Trump’s fiery rhetoric on Truth Social
contrasts with what he said after the agreement between Ottawa and Beijing
earlier this month, “that’s what he [Carney] should be doing. It’s a good thing
for him to sign a trade deal. If you can get a deal with China, you should do
that.”
---On Jan. 16, Ottawa and Beijing
concluded a “preliminary agreement,” with both sides lowering tariffs on select
goods.
Under the agreement, Canada will allow 49,000 Chinese electric
vehicles into the market annually at a lowered tariff rate of 6.1%, after
raising tariffs on such vehicles to 100% in October 2024 in conjunction Canada has “no intention” of pursuing a free trade deal with
China, Prime Minister Mark Carney said, after U.S. President Donald Trump
threatened to slap punitive tariffs on Ottawa.
Speaking to reporters on Sunday, Carney said that the country respects its
obligations under the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement, known as CUSMA in
Canada and the USMCA in the U.S., and will not pursue a free trade agreement
without notifying the other two parties.
Carney’s remarks come after Trump
threatened to put a 100% tariff on Canadian exports if Ottawa “makes a deal”
with Beijing.
more
Carney says Canada not pursuing free trade deal with China as Trump
threatens 100% tariffs
Exclusive:
Carney likely to visit India in early March as Canada trade pivot intensifies,
envoy says
By Promit Mukherjee January 26, 2026 12:52 PM GMT
OTTAWA, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Canada's
Prime Minister Mark Carney will likely visit India the first week of March and
sign deals on uranium, energy, minerals and artificial intelligence, Dinesh
Patnaik, India's High Commissioner to Canada said in an interview.
Carney is making all-out efforts to
diversify Canada's alliances beyond the U.S., its top trade partner. In Davos last
week, he earned a rare standing ovation for saying
the old rules-based order is over and called on middle powers like Canada to
build coalitions to shape a fairer, more resilient world.
His viral speech followed an agreement
with China to slash tariffs on electric vehicles and canola and open up to C$7
billion ($5.11 billion) in export markets as he tries to double non-U.S.
exports over the next decade.
Carney is also resetting relations with
India after his predecessor Justin Trudeau accused the Indian government of
involvement in the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in 2023. India has
denied those claims.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended
the Group of 7 summit on Carney's invitation last year and several of Carney's
ministers have traveled to India.
"I have a feeling in the first
week of March is what we are looking at," said High Commissioner Patnaik
on Carney's visit during a weekend interview.
More
Europe-U.S. ties at their ‘lowest’ in NATO history, ex-EU chief says, as
Trump goes ‘America First’
Published Mon, Jan 26 2026 1:20 AM EST
Europe and U.S. relations are facing their “lowest
moment” since NATO came
into being, former European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said, as
Washington’s disruptive approach to diplomacy forces allies to reexamine the
transatlantic relationship.
“There are some doubts about the relationship with
the United States,” Barroso, also former prime minister of Portugal, said in an
interview with CNBC’s “The China Connection” on
Monday, pointing to a loss of trust that extends beyond the European Union to
include the U.K.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s aim
to acquire Greenland, a semi-autonomous territory of Denmark, including threats
of possible military action and higher tariffs on European nations, has shaken
confidence in the U.S. among European leaders and the public.
The relationship between Europe and the U.S. has
become increasingly driven by interests, shifting away from the traditional
model of being based on shared “democratic values,” Barroso said, describing
the moment as a “rupture phase” in which it remains unclear “where we are going
from now.”
While Trump pulled back from a maximalist
position, ruling out
the use of military force and retreating from his threat
of imposing tariffs on
European nations aimed at pressuring them to help the U.S.
acquire the island, he is sticking with
his aim of exerting control on the Arctic territory.
In a social media post last week after a meeting
with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump said there is “the framework of a
future deal” on Greenland, without disclosing any details or whether Denmark
had agreed to
a deal. Rutte later said the issue of Greenland’s
ownership did not come up in his talks with Trump.
Barroso described Trump as “the great disruptor”
who is sometimes “more tough with allies and friends, than with opponents.”
Only 16% of Europeans view the U.S. as an ally that
shares the same values, down from 21% in 2024, with a “striking” 20% seeing the
U.S. as a rival or an enemy, according to a survey conducted in November by the European
Council on Foreign Relations, an international think tank.
That collapse of trust was stark in the U.K. which
saw the share drop to 25%, from 37% a year earlier.
More
Europe-US
relations at their 'lowest moment': former European Commission president
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Approx. 24 minutes.
Does Europe Have a Financial Nuclear Option?
Does Europe Have a Financial Nuclear Option?
Exclusive:
India to slash tariffs on cars to 40% in trade deal with EU, sources say
By Aditi Shah and Philip Blenkinsop January 26, 202610:51 AM GMT
NEW DELHI/BRUSSELS, Jan 25 (Reuters) - India plans to
slash tariffs on cars imported from the European Union to 40% from as high as
110%, sources said, in the biggest opening yet of the country's vast market as
the two sides close in on a free trade pact that could come as early as Tuesday.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has agreed to
immediately reduce the tax on a limited number of cars from the 27-nation bloc
with an import price of more than 15,000 euros ($17,739), two sources briefed
on the talks told Reuters.
This will be further lowered to 10% over time, they
added, easing access to the Indian market for European automakers such as
Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW.
The sources declined to be identified as the talks are
confidential and could be subject to last-minute changes. India's commerce
ministry and the European Commission declined to comment.
PACT ALREADY DUBBED 'MOTHER OF ALL DEALS'
India and the EU are expected to announce on Tuesday
the conclusion of protracted negotiations for the free trade pact,
after which the two sides will finalise the details and ratify what is being
called "the mother of all deals.
The pact could expand bilateral trade and lift Indian
exports of goods such as textiles and jewellery, which have been hit by 50%
U.S. tariffs since late August.
More
Exclusive: India
to slash tariffs on cars to 40% in trade deal with EU, sources say | Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
New
filtration technologies could quickly absorb 'forever chemicals'
25 January 2026
New filtration
technologies that could absorb “forever
chemicals” at an “ultrafast” rate have been developed.
Researchers say their
findings could greatly improve
pollution control, although they face multiple
challenges before the technology can be deployed at scale.
The scientists outline in a
new paper how a layered double hydroxide (LDH) material made from copper and
aluminium could absorb long-chain PFAS at an “ultrafast” speed.
This could be up to 100 times
the rate of current filtration systems, according to reports.
“Forever chemicals” – so-called because they do not degrade – have
been used in a variety of consumer and commercial applications since the 1950s.
They can repel water and oil, resist high temperatures and act as “surfactants”
by helping different types of liquids mix.
There are around 15,000
different PFAS chemicals. Each one has a slightly different chemical
composition, but they all have at least two carbon-fluorine bonds. These
extremely strong bonds mean that PFAS do not readily break down. So the bond
that affords PFAS some of its unique characteristics also causes them to build
up and persist in our bodies and the environment for decades.
Many PFAS are known to be
toxic, including associations with altered liver and thyroid function, and
various cancers.
Granular activated carbon,
reverse osmosis and ion exchange are among the current filtration technologies
being used, and they work by absorbing PFAS in water. However, the chemicals
caught in the filter have to be stored in hazardous waste facilities or
destroyed in a thermal process using high heat, which produces toxic byproducts
or just breaks the PFAS down into smaller PFAS.
The new process works by
soaking up and concentrating PFAS at high levels, meaning it is non-thermal as
the chemicals can be destroyed without using high temperatures, according to
Michael Wong, director of Rice University’s Water Institute, a PFAS research
centre that developed the new technologies.
The LDH material is similar
to those previously used, but copper atoms have replaced some aluminium ones,
he said, so the positively charged material attracts and absorbs a broad array
of negatively charged PFAS.
“It just soaks it in to the
order of 100 times faster than other materials that are out there,” Mr
Wong told The Guardian.
PFAS have been seen as almost
indestructible due to the bonds between their carbon and fluoride atoms, but
the team found heating the material to 400 to 500C, a relatively low
temperature, broke the bonds and left a safe, disposable by-product.
Furthermore, new PFAS
elimination systems generally do not work at scale, but the researchers say the
LDH material has a strong absorption rate and can be used repeatedly and with
existing infrastructure, which also removes a big cost barrier.
“This material is going to be
important for the direction of research on PFAS destruction in general,” Mr
Wong added.
New filtration technologies could quickly absorb 'forever chemicals'
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
No society can surely be flourishing and happy, of which the far
greater part of the members are poor and miserable.
Adam Smith
No comments:
Post a Comment