Baltic
Dry Index. 2002 -14 Brent Crude 70.13
Spot Gold 5246 Spot Silver 111.07
US 2 Year Yield 3.53 -0.03
US Federal Debt. 38.671 trillion US GDP 31.108 trillion.
The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.
Murray Rothbard
Has Trump 2.0 and a tariff war on friend and foe alike destabilised global stock and commodity markets?
With increasingly wild unpredictable price swings becoming the new normal, where are the losses piling up?
With Trump’s “beautiful armada” locked and loaded off Iran, will it be a war weekend for the Persian Gulf?
Gold rally stalls as prices drop 4% after a sharp
run-up; Asia-Pacific stock markets trade mixed
Published Thu, Jan 29 2026 7:01 PM EST
Gold and silver prices fell Friday, after
hitting record highs a day earlier, as investors book profits after a
record-breaking rally this year.
Spot gold prices declined over 4% to
$5,156.64 per ounce. The yellow metal remained around 20% higher year to date.
“A correction back to $5,000 with some
consolidation around that price would be a normal pattern in a bull market,” Ed
Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told CNBC. “The surprise is that it
went from $3,000 to $5,500 without any significant correction ... So far this
has been more of a melt-up than a traditional bull market in the precious
metals.”
Silver prices fell over 5% to $110.26 per
ounce. Year-to-date, the white metal’s price is still 53% higher.
Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets traded
mixed after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he will announce his choice
for the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday.
Speaking at the premiere of Melania, a
film about first lady Melania Trump, he
said the five-month search to replace current chair Jerome Powell was nearing
its conclusion.
The process for selecting Powell’s
replacement began in September with an 11-candidate field that included past
and current Fed officials, economists, and Wall Street investment
professionals.
South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.23% while
the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.99%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.25% higher,
and the Topix added 0.58%.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.23%.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 0.71%,
while the mainland CSI 300 was down 0.51%.
The head of Indonesia’s stock exchange has
stepped down following the fallout from an MSCI warning of a potential
downgrade. The Jakarta Composite climbed about 1% following the announcement.
Oil prices slid after Trump reportedly said that he intended to speak with Iran, even
as the United States sent another warship to the Middle East and Defense
Secretary Pete Hegseth said the military stood ready to act on the president’s
instructions. Trump offered no details on the scope or timing of any talks, nor
on who would lead them.
Global benchmark Brent lost
1.43% to $69.7 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures
traded 1.65% lower at $64.33 per barrel.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.16%,
as were Nasdaq 100 futures. Dow futures fell 112 points,
or about 0.2%. Trump also endorsed a Senate deal
to fund the vast majority of the federal government through the remainder of
the fiscal year, easing near-term political uncertainty for investors.
Senators clinched a deal with just over a
day until a partial government
shutdown. They agreed to remove funding for the Department of Homeland
Security from the package and pass the other five bills, while DHS will be
funded by a stopgap.
Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 fell, bogged down
by Microsoft, as traders
reacted to the megacap technology company’s latest earnings results and the
Federal Reserve’s interest
rate decision.
The broad market index slipped 0.13% to
close at 6,969.01, while the Nasdaq
Composite declined 0.72% to end at 23,685.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced
0.11%, or 55.96 points, and settled at 49,071.56. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin shed more than 5%
and hit its lowest
level in almost two months.
Asia-Pacific
markets mixed: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Jakarta Composite Index
Stocks tumble on bets Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed
pick
January 30, 2026 1:46 AM GMT
SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Stocks
slumped while the dollar and bond yields shot up on Friday after U.S.
President Donald Trump said he has firmed his choice for new
Federal Reserve boss, with reports zeroing in on Kevin Warsh as the likely
pick.
While Warsh, a former Fed Governor, is
seen as an advocate of lower interest rates, he is also considered to be one of
the less radical choices among the various
names that have been raised and perhaps more cautious on heavy
monetary stimulus than others.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific
shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS),
opens new tab tumbled as much as 1.3%, extending the previous day's
declines with the biggest one-day slump of the past month.
S&P 500 e-mini futures slid 0.4%,
Nasdaq e-mini futures were off 0.5% and precious metals plunged, after Reuters
reported Warsh visited
the White House for a meeting with Trump on Thursday, citing a source familiar
with the matter.
Bloomberg News also reported that the
Trump administration is preparing to nominate Warsh as the next Fed chair.
Warsh "is on record as saying he
prefers lower rates," said Damien Boey, portfolio strategist, Wilson
Asset Management in Sydney "But the trade-off that he makes with lower
rates is that he wants the Fed to have a smaller balance sheet," he added.
"The markets are reacting as if
thinking: 'What would the world look like with a smaller Fed balance sheet?'
"
On prediction market site Polymarket, the
implied probability of contracts betting that Trump will nominate Warsh to
lead the central bank surged to 92% from 35%.
The U.S. dollar index , which measures the
greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.3% at
96.481, reversing some recent weakness.
"We've definitely seen some dollar
buying straight away on the back of it," said Tim Kelleher, head of
institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland. "He's known to
the markets and will probably calm things down slightly."
Asian stocks were led lower by declines in
China, with a gauge of Chinese companies with listings in Hong Kong (.HSCE),
opens new tab off 2.1%. MSCI's broadest gauge of equities outside of
Japan remains on track for its best monthly performance in more than three
years. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 (.N225),
opens new tab slipped 0.1%.
Stocks in Jakarta (.JKSE),
opens new tab rallied 1% after the
head of Indonesia's stock exchange resigned, taking responsibility for a
selloff triggered by a warning of a potential downgrade from index provider
MSCI. It was the country's biggest stock rout since the 1998 Asian Financial
Crisis.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury
bond was last up 4.0 basis points at 4.265%. Fed funds futures are pricing an
implied 86.6% probability that the U.S. central bank will hold steady on rates
at its next two-day meeting on March 18, compared with a 87.5% chance a day
earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.
A faltering rebound for precious metals
fell short after a choppy
session on Thursday. Gold was last down 3.7% at $5,195.91, while
silver plunged 6% to $109.10.
Brent crude was last down 1.4% at $69.70
as oil markets weighed geopolitical risks, after Trump on Thursday signed an
executive order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to
impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil
to Cuba.
Also on Thursday, Trump said he was
planning to talk to Iran amid
rising tensions.
Bitcoin was last down 2.7% at $82,089.96,
while ether tumbled 2.8% to $2,738.30.
Stocks
tumble on bets Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed pick | Reuters
In other news.
Trump warns Britain on China ties as Starmer hails
reset
January 30, 2026 1:08 AM GMT
WASHINGTON/BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) -
U.S. President Donald Trump warned Britain against getting into business
with Beijing as Prime Minister Keir Starmer lauded the economic
benefits of resetting relations with China during a visit there on Friday.
As Western leaders reel from Trump's
unpredictability, Starmer is the latest to head to China.
In three-hour talks with President Xi
Jinping on Thursday, the British leader called for a "more sophisticated
relationship" with improved market access, lower tariffs and investment
deals while also discussing soccer and Shakespeare.
In Washington, however, replying to
questions about the closer ties, Trump said, "Well, it's very dangerous
for them to do that." He was speaking to reporters ahead of the premiere
of the "Melania" film at the Kennedy Center.
He did not elaborate.
Trump, who plans to travel to China in
April, threatened last week to impose
tariffs on Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney struck economic
deals with Beijing on a recent visit.
A Downing Street spokesperson and China's
foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Around the time of Trump's comments,
Starmer told a meeting of the UK-China Business Forum in the Chinese capital
that his "very warm" meetings with Xi had provided "just the
level of engagement that we hoped for".
He added, "We warmly engaged and made
some real progress, actually, because the UK has got a huge amount to
offer."
Starmer hailed deals on visa-free travel
and lower whisky tariffs as "really important access, symbolic of what
we're doing with the relationship".
"That is the way that we build the
mutual trust and respect that is so important," Starmer said.
More
Trump
warns Britain on China ties as Starmer hails reset | Reuters
Trump says U.S. decertifying Bombardier Global
Express until Canada certifies Gulfstream
Published Thu, Jan 29 2026 8:38 PM EST
President Donald
Trump said on Thursday the U.S. was decertifying Bombardier Global
Express business jets and threatened 50% import tariffs on other aircraft made
in Canada until the country certified a number of planes produced by
U.S. rival Gulfstream.
“Further, Canada is effectively
prohibiting the sale of Gulfstream products in Canada through this
very same certification process,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “If,
for any reason, this situation is not immediately corrected, I am going to
charge Canada a 50% Tariff on any and all aircraft sold into the
United States of America.”
It was unclear what planes beyond
Bombardier’s Global Express franchise would fall under Trump’s increased
tariffs, including the Airbus A220 commercial jets made in Canada.
FlightRadar24 said on X there were more
than 400 Canadian-made planes operating to and from U.S. airports as of about
0100 GMT on Friday.
Data provider Cirium said there were 150
Global Express aircraft in service registered in the U.S., operated by 115
operators.
Bombardier, General
Dynamics-owned Gulfstream and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office
did not immediately respond when asked for comment.
Trump said Canada has refused to
certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700, and 800 jets. In April, the Federal
Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency certified
the Gulfstream G800 jet. Transport Canada, which is responsible for
Canadian certification, did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
It was unclear how Trump would decertify
the planes since that is the job of the Federal Aviation Administration, but he
has made similar declarations in the past that were ultimately carried out,
often with exemptions, by relevant agencies.
It was also not clear if the Federal
Aviation Administration could revoke certifications for planes based on
economic reasons or what that would mean for American owners of the planes and
whether that would prevent them from operating in the United States. The FAA
can revoke an airplane’s certification for safety reasons. The FAA declined
immediate comment.
Certification process
Under global aviation rules the country
where an aircraft is designed - the U.S. in Gulfstream’s case - is responsible
for primary certification known as a type certificate, vouching for the
design’s safety.
Other countries typically validate the
decision of the primary regulator, allowing the plane into their airspace, but
have the right to refuse or ask for more data. Following the Boeing 737 Max
crisis, European regulators delayed endorsement of some U.S. certification
decisions and pressed for further design changes, sparking tensions with the
FAA.
As part of continuing
U.S.-Canada tensions, Carney on Tuesday denied he had retracted comments
that irritated Trump, and said almost nothing was normal in the United States.
Carney, citing U.S. trade policy, last
week urged nations to accept the end of the rules-based
global order that Washington had once championed. Due to U.S. tariffs on key
Canadian imports, Carney is pushing to diversify trade away from the United
States, which takes around 70% of all Canadian exports under terms of the
U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade deal.
The FAA in December certified Bombardier’s
Global 8000 business jet, the world’s fastest civilian plane since the Concorde
with a top speed of Mach 0.95, or about 729 mph (1,173 kph). It was certified by Transport Canada on November 5.
Trump
says U.S. decertifying Bombardier Global Express until Canada certifies
Gulfstream
Germany's Merz: Europe found 'joy of self-respect'
to defend rules-based world
January 29, 2026 10:42 AM GMT
BERLIN, Jan 29 (Reuters) - German
Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Thursday said Europe had found
"self-respect" in standing up for a rules-based global order, and
called for a stronger NATO within Europe while still extending the hand of
cooperation to the United States.
Speaking to the German parliament, Merz
also said that Europe will no longer be cowed by tariff threats, after U.S.
President Donald Trump backed away from using
such tariffs as a tool to seize Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark.
Merz's speech underscored how European
leaders have been emboldened to try to project European strength and values,
after the standoff with Trump over Greenland, global trade ructions and nearly
four years of war between Russia and Ukraine.
"For some weeks now, we have been
seeing with increasing clarity the emergence of a world of great powers. Rough
winds are blowing in this world, and we will feel their effects for the
foreseeable future," Merz told lawmakers.
In recent weeks, "we have been able
to experience something of the joy of self-respect", he said, adding that
rules-based action and rules-based trade were not dead.
"More and more countries around the
world are recognizing that the current global reorganization also presents an
opportunity for all actors who prefer rules to arbitrariness and who see more
advantages in free and fair trade than in the one-sided pursuit of sole
self-interest," Merz said.
EU UNITED AGAINST TARIFF INTIMIDATION,
MERZ SAYS
Merz was speaking a week after tensions
with Trump came to a head over Greenland, threatening to blow apart the NATO
alliance that has underpinned Western security since the end of World War Two.
His words echoed those of French President
Emmanuel Macron who, in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos,
Switzerland, said Europe would not give in to bullies.
At the same event, European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen called for a new form
of European independence, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that
in an age of great power rivalry democratic middle powers must build flexible
coalitions together.
"Last week, we demonstrated that we
in the EU can act swiftly when necessary. We were united in our determination
not to be intimidated by tariff threats again," Merz said.
Merz touted European Union trade deals
with South American trade bloc Mercosur and with India as examples of Europe
pushing ahead, adding that Europe should accelerate reforms and dial back
regulation.
In a separate row after the Greenland
dispute, Trump provoked
widespread anger across
Europe when he said European troops had stayed off the front lines in
Afghanistan.
"Fifty-nine German soldiers lost
their lives during the almost 20-year deployment in Afghanistan, and well over
100 were injured, some seriously, in combat and attacks," Merz told
parliament.
"We will not allow this deployment to
be denigrated or belittled."
Germany's Merz: Europe found 'joy of self-respect' to defend rules-based world | Reuters
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Mark Cuban says a recession is coming: Media, restaurants, and
gov-funded businesses will collapse first
January 28, 2026
Billionaire investor Mark
Cuban recently shared in an interview that he believes a recession is imminent,
aligning with broader economic forecasts. Several analysts estimate the
probability of a recession at nearly 60%, suggesting that markets and macroeconomic
indicators are increasingly pricing in a significant economic slowdown. These
forecasts typically consider factors such as slowing economic growth, rising
unemployment, and declining consumer spending.
Cuban's outlook stems
from his extensive experience navigating market downturns and understanding
economic cycles. He emphasised that layoffs tend to lead to lower revenue for
businesses, and when consumers cut back on spending, sales decline. Business owners
then feel the impact, creating a domino effect across sectors. Cuban pointed
out that when the next recession hits, four industries could be the most
vulnerable to collapse first.
Traditional Media's Dependence on Advertising
Revenue
According to Cuban, the
traditional media industry will be among the most susceptible during a
recession. He argued that media companies are struggling to adapt to a shift in
consumer attention from print newspapers to digital platforms. The industry's revenue
heavily depends on advertising income, which tends to shrink during economic
downturns.
The digital media
landscape has become more fragmented, as audiences increasingly turn to social
platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram. Additionally, advances
in AI have made it easier to generate media content, diverting consumer
interest away from traditional outlets. As a result, viewership and
subscription numbers have declined, making it challenging for media companies
to sustain their production budgets.
During a recession,
advertisers typically cut back on marketing spend, which significantly impacts
media organisations' revenue streams. To survive, these companies may need to
collaborate with other brands and diversify their streaming channels or digital
offerings, but the financial strain remains considerable.
Risks for Restaurants and Dining Sectors
Cuban identified the
restaurant and dining industry as another sector likely to be hit hard in a US
recession. Operating on very narrow profit margins—due to high labour and
operating costs—even during periods of economic growth, this industry becomes
particularly vulnerable when consumers tighten their discretionary spending.
He explained that
restaurants are often the first to feel the effects of economic stress,
especially with the rising wages and the pressure of food inflation. In recent
years, the costs of basic ingredients have surged, squeezing margins further.
This combination of wage pressures and rising food costs puts the sector at
significant risk.
More
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section Updates as they get reported.
Realme P4 Power pairs 10,001mAh battery with 144Hz display
29 January 2026
The first global smartphone with a
10,000mAh battery is here. Realme today announced the Realme P4 Power in
India, featuring a 10,000mAh battery, bold claims about its runtime, and a
starting price of just Rs 28,999 (~$285). Talk about value.
A battery that’s doing most of the talking
The Realme P4 Power 5G’s biggest selling
point is, unsurprisingly, its battery. With a capacity of 10,001mAh, this is
one of the largest batteries you’ll find in a mainstream smartphone in India
right now.
Realme says it’s the world’s first
10,000mAh-plus battery to pass a military-grade shock resistance test
(MIL-STD-810), which is an interesting claim for a phone that’s meant to be
used daily.
Realme has also shared some bold
endurance numbers. It claims up to 932 hours of standby, over 72 hours of
calling, around 32 hours of YouTube playback, and more than 21 hours of
navigation. Even gaming figures are impressive, with over 11 hours of BGMI gameplay
on a single charge.
Charging hasn’t been ignored either.
Despite the huge battery, the phone supports 80W fast charging, along with 27W
reverse wired charging for powering accessories.
There’s also bypass charging, which lets
users game or stream while plugged in without stressing the battery, and a
“boost charging” feature that promises faster top-ups with a long press.
Realme is also confident enough to offer
a four-year battery health guarantee, and is even ready to replace the unit if
health drops below 80 percent. The service, however, is only applicable to
first-sale units.
More
Realme P4 Power pairs 10,001mAh battery with 144Hz display
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and another new war weekend? Hopefully not. Have a great weekend
everyone.
Throughout history governments have been chronically short of
revenue. The reason should be clear: unlike you and me, governments do not
produce useful goods and services that they can sell on the market;
governments, rather than producing and selling services, live parasitically off
the market and off society.
Murray Rothbard
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