London Irvine Report: Special Update 24/01/2026 USA

Baltic Dry Index. 1762 +01 Brent Crude 65.88

Spot Gold 4983 Spot Silver 103.26

U S 2 Year Yield 3.61 +0.01

US Federal Debt. 38.646 trillion US GDP 30.091 trillion

A happy, healthy and enjoyable time to all celebrating Burns Night tomorrow.

See To A Mouse, (not To A Louse,) at the end of this LIR update.

As two thirds of America prepares for a harsh winter storm, the US stock casinos are preparing for a looming private credit storm.

Gold and silver continue to soar against the fiat currencies as global insurance against the coming fiat currency crisis.

S&P 500 ends Friday little changed, but posts second straight losing week amid wild trading

Updated Fri, Jan 23 202 64:22 PM EST

U.S. equities were mixed on Friday, as the Nasdaq Composite extended its gains amid easing geopolitical fears and the Dow Jones Industrial Average underperformed.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.28% and settled at 23,501.24, while the blue-chip Dow lost 285.30 points, or 0.58%, closing at 49,098.71. A nearly 4% slide in Goldman Sachs weighed on the 30-stock index. The broad market S&P 500 eked out a marginal gain of 0.03% to end at 6,915.61.

Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were among those supporting the Nasdaq and the S&P 500, climbing 1.5% and more than 2%, respectively. The moves come as people familiar with the matter told CNBC that Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is planning to visit China in the coming days. Other tech names like Microsoft saw a boost as well.

Intel shares, in contrast, tumbled around 17% after the chipmaker reported a disappointing first-quarter outlook.

The three major averages rallied for a second session on Thursday as investors were appeased by news of easing trade tensions and geopolitical risk.

The indexes began their rebound on Wednesday after President Donald Trump called off his threatened tariffs on the imports of eight European nations — which were set to start Feb.1 — and announced that he and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reached a “framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland.” The tariff threat briefly spurred a flight from U.S. assets as investors turned to the “sell America” trade at the start of the holiday-shortened trading week.

Trump had also told CNBC Wednesday that “we have a concept of a deal” with the Arctic island.

“Investors this week welcomed a term that kind of started around Liberation Day or shortly thereafter — the ‘TACO’ trade,’” said Scott Ellis, managing director, corporate credit at Penn Mutual Asset Management. “Maybe investors will look to that in the future as Trump kind of walks back and this administration walks back some of the rhetoric in order to get deals done.”

To be sure, Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said on Thursday he doesn’t know what’s in the “framework” deal that Trump announced, stressing that any such deal must respect Greenland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

While the combined gains on Wednesday and Thursday had erased the Dow’s losses from earlier in the week, Friday’s move put it back in the red. The 30-stock Dow fell 0.5% on the week. The S&P 500 lost about 0.4%, while the Nasdaq slipped less than 0.1% in the period — both posted back-to-back losing weeks.

Stock market news for Jan. 23, 2026

Wall Street braced for a private credit meltdown. The risk of one is rising

Published Fri, Jan 23 2026 7:00 AM EST Updated Fri, Jan 23 2026 4:26 PM EST

The sudden collapse last fall of a string of American companies backed by private credit has thrust a fast-growing and opaque corner of Wall Street lending into the spotlight.

Private credit, also known as direct lending, is a catch-all term for lending done by nonbank institutions. The practice has been around for decades but surged in popularity after post-2008 financial crisis regulations discouraged banks from serving riskier borrowers.

That growth — from $3.4 trillion in 2025 to an estimated $4.9 trillion by 2029 — and the September bankruptcies of auto-industry firms Tricolor and First Brands have emboldened some prominent Wall Street figures to raise alarms about the asset class.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned in October that problems in credit are rarely isolated: “When you see one cockroach, there are probably more.” Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach a month later accused private lenders of making “garbage loans” and predicted that the next financial crisis will come from private credit.

While fears about private credit have subsided in recent weeks in the absence of more high-profile bankruptcies or losses disclosed by banks, they haven’t lifted completely.

Companies that are most linked to the asset class, such as Blue Owl Capital, as well as alternative asset giants Blackstone and KKR, still trade well below their recent highs.

The rise of private credit

Private credit is “lightly regulated, less transparent, opaque, and it’s growing really fast, which doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a problem in the financial system, but it is a necessary condition for one,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi said in an interview.

Private credit’s boosters, such as Apollo co-founder Marc Rowan, have said that the rise of private credit has fueled American economic growth by filling the gap left by banks, served investors with good returns and made the broader financial system more resilient.

Big investors including pensions and insurance companies with long-term liabilities are seen as better sources of capital for multiyear corporate loans than banks funded by short-term deposits, which can be flighty, private credit operators told CNBC.

But concerns about private credit — which tend to come from the sector’s competitors in public debt — are understandable given its attributes.

After all, it’s the asset managers making private credit loans that are the ones valuing them, and they can be motivated to delay the recognition of potential borrower problems.

“The double-edged sword of private credit” is that the lenders have “really strong incentives to monitor for problems,” said Duke Law professor Elisabeth de Fontenay.

“But by the same token … they do in fact have incentives to try to disguise risk, if they think or hope that there might be some way out of it down the road,” she said.

De Fontenay, who has studied the impact of private equity and debt on corporate America, said her biggest concern is that it’s difficult to know if private lenders are accurately marking their loans, she said.

“This is a market that is extraordinarily large and that is reaching more and more businesses, and yet it’s not a public market,” she said. “We’re not entirely sure if the valuations are correct.”

In the November collapse of home improvement firm Renovo, for instance, BlackRock and other private lenders deemed its debt to be worth 100 cents on the dollar until shortly before marking it down to zero.

Defaults among private loans are expected to rise this year, especially as signs of stress among less creditworthy borrowers emerge, according to a Kroll Bond Rating Agency report.

And private credit borrowers are increasingly relying on payment-in-kind options to forestall defaulting on loans, according to Bloomberg, which cited valuation firm Lincoln International and its own data analysis.

Ironically, while they are competitors, part of the private credit boom has been funded by banks themselves.

Wall Street braced for a private credit meltdown. The risk is rising

Speculative frenzy catapults silver above $100/oz

January 23, 2026 10:45 PM GMT

LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Silver prices vaulted above $100 an ounce on Friday, extending a remarkable 2025 surge into the new year as retail investor and momentum-driven buying added to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets for the precious and industrial metal.

Hopping onto the coat-tails of far more expensive gold, technical analysts who study charts of past price moves to predict future movement said the rapid nature of silver's gains had positioned it for a major correction.

"Silver is in the midst of a self-propelled frenzy and with plenty of geopolitical risk to give gold added buoyancy, silver is benefiting, even now, from its lower unit price," said StoneX analyst Rhona O'Connell.

"Everyone, it seems, wants to be involved but it is also flashing amber wealth warnings," she added. "As and when cracks start to appear they could easily become chasms. Buckle up."

Spot prices for silver , used in jewellery, electronics, solar panels, as well as an investment, were last up 5.1% at $101 per troy ounce on Friday.

The price has gained 40% since the beginning of 2026 after rallying by 147% in 2025. Gold hit a record high of $4,988 per ounce on Friday.

Speculative frenzy catapults silver above $100/oz | Reuters

In other news.

Major winter storm may affect over 170 million Americans — how much it could cost you

Published Fri, Jan 23 2026 3:51 PM EST Updated Fri, Jan 23 2026 5:23 PM EST

A massive winter storm is threatening to wreak havoc across the U.S. in the days ahead — and potentially take a financial toll on households in its path.

The National Weather Service said Friday that it expects a “significant, long-duration winter storm” to bring heavy snow, sleet and freezing rain to a broad swath of the U.S., from the southern Rockies to New England, lasting from Friday through Monday.

Snowfall may exceed a foot in certain areas, while “locally catastrophic ice accumulations” and frigid temperatures may trigger long-term power outages, extensive tree damage and widespread travel disruptions, according to the weather service.

The storm may affect more than 170 million Americans, the weather service said early Friday.

Despite the financial costs of such storms, people can take steps to dampen the economic hit, financial experts said.

“A big cost of winter storms is the aftermath of home damage and accidents,” according to Carolyn McClanahan, a certified financial planner and founder of Life Planning Partners in Jacksonville, Florida. McClanahan is a member of CNBC’s Financial Advisor Council. “People should be preemptive in preparing for this storm. Make sure you cover pipes, bring in plants or cover them, and stock up on supplies so you don’t have to go out.”

Here’s what to know about the potential financial impacts and how to prepare.

What major winter storm Fern could mean for your money

Trump’s Year of Anarchy

The Unconstrained Presidency and the End of American Primacy

January 20, 2026

For most Americans and Europeans alive today, a world of anarchy probably never felt quite real. Since 1945, the United States and its allies crafted and maintained an order that while neither fully liberal nor fully international, established rules that kept the peace among the great powers, promoted a world of relatively open trade, and facilitated international cooperation. In the decades that followed, the world became more stable and prosperous.

Before that long great-power peace, however, anarchy was far from an abstraction in the developed world. The first half of the twentieth century alone featured two world wars, a global depression, and a deadly pandemic. With weak global rules and weaker enforcement mechanisms, most states had little choice but to fend for themselves, often resorting to military force. But there were still limits to what sovereign states might do in a conflict. Countries were only just beginning to project military power beyond their borders, and information, goods, and people traveled less rapidly. Even during periods of international disorder, states could do only so much to one another without risking their own demise.

Today, the most powerful country is leading the world into a different kind of anarchy. Although U.S. President Donald Trump did not single-handedly bring about the decline of the post-1945 order, he has, in his first year since returning to office, accelerated and even embraced its demise. Trump’s appetite for territorial expansion eviscerates the most powerful post-1945 norm: that borders cannot be redrawn through the force of arms. And his disregard for domestic institutions has allowed him to run roughshod over any attempts at home to check those foreign expansionist dreams.

The anarchy that is emerging under Trump, in other words, is more chaotic. It is closer to the more primitive anarchy of the political philosopher Thomas Hobbes—a world of “all against all,” where sovereign power cannot be challenged domestically or internationally. In this Hobbesian order, driven by a leader who rejects any constraints on his ability to act and who is emboldened by technology to move at a whirlwind pace, anything goes. Order may well eventually emerge from this anarchy, but that order is unlikely to be led by—or to benefit—the United States.

Trump’s Year of Anarchy: The Unconstrained Presidency and the End of American Primacy

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Ken Griffin says America was sent an 'explicit warning' from the bond market, and it's time to get the national debt in order

January 22, 2026

While it might appear that the most significant updates about the global economy are currently coming from a small town in the Swiss Alps, Tokyo may disagree. This week Japan’s bond market suffered a major selloff, with yields hitting an all-time high.

Ten-year yields spiked to 2.2%, while 30-year yields hit 3.66%. While the onset of the selloff can’t be pinpointed, it is likely a combination of geopolitical tensions and simmering concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s ¥21.3 trillion ($134 billion) economic plan to bolster Japan’s debt-heavy economy.

This, warned Citadel CEO Ken Griffin, should be a cautionary tale to the U.S., where yields neared the danger benchmark of 5% this week.

“I think there’s an explicit warning that if your fiscal house is not in order, the bond vigilantes can come out and retract their price,” Griffin said at a Bloomberg event in Davos.

The 5% threshold is a concern for investors because it’s the point at which holding U.S. debt is comparable to the returns on stocks. This is a worry because bonds are seen as a stable, low-risk component of a balanced portfolio; if yields are at a level comparable to stocks, then risk may also be too high for investors who want stability.

“What’s particularly troubling is … when bonds and stocks move together in price, then bonds are no longer a hedge for your equity portfolio, and they lose a substantial part of what makes them so special in constructing a portfolio,” Griffin said.

U.S. Treasuries had a shaky week after President Trump announced over the weekend that a bevy of European nations would face additional tariffs if they did not support his bid to purchase Greenland. Yields spiked as speculation mounted over how Europe and its investors would respond: namely, whether they would continue to hold U.S. debt.

The speculation bothered Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who claimed that Deutsche Bank’s CEO called him personally to apologize for a note published by his institution over the weekend, which suggested European investors may vote with their feet in response to Trump’s threats. Deutsche’s note was one of many that suggested Treasuries could be used to right-size Trump’s plan, including UBS’s Paul Donovan, who suggested Uncle Sam’s deficits were the nation’s “Achilles’ heel.”

A U.S. funding issue

While recent yield shifts have resulted from short-term foreign policy, this does lay bare the broader question about U.S. funding. National debt now exceeds $38 trillion, with the government forking out in excess of $270 billion in debt interest payments alone in the final three months of fiscal year 2025. Everyone from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon to Fed Chair Jerome Powell are concerned not necessarily about the value of the nation’s debt, but its borrowing in relation to its economic growth.

While some might argue a debt crisis will never come to pass because the Federal Reserve can simply print more money (inflationary in its own right), others fear investors at some point will feel the U.S. has reached an unstable spending threshold and demand higher returns as a result.

“If U.S. Treasuries are viewed as being at risk because the United States is not seen as creditworthy, then bonds and stocks will move together in price. That will result in bonds having a much higher demand yield in the marketplace, so mortgage rates will be higher; the cost for us to finance our deficits will be higher,” Griffin said.

Ken Griffin says America was sent an 'explicit warning' from the bond market, and it's time to get the national debt in order

Consumer confidence has been negative for 10 years

Friday 23 January 2026 6:00 am | Updated: Friday 23 January 2026 7:00 am

Consumer confidence inched up slightly this month despite remaining in negative territory, a leading survey has indicated, indicating a degree of “resilience” despite a decade of consumer pessimism.

The overall index score on GfK’s closely monitored consumer confidence survey rose by one point while feelings about personal finances over the next 12 months edged up four points.

The overall index, which takes various confidence indicators into account, remained in negative territory at -16.

It has now been 10 years since the index was in positive territory, reflecting people’s long-running dissatisfaction with stagnant living standards.

But sentiment about personal financial situations was now at a net reading of 6 compared to -2 at the same point last year.

People were also more confident about their personal financial situations over the last 12 months, according to the research firm.

Consumer confidence readings add to pressure on Labour

Keir Starmer has focused his government’s communications operations on plans to tackle the cost of living for millions of people.

But in a more damning assessment of the Labour government, Britons were more negative in readings relating to the general economy.

The net reading for the general economic situation over the next 12 months dropped two points to -31.

Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director at GfK, said the latest results were less about “optimism” than “resilience”.

“We remain a long way from consumers feeling that better days are around the corner,” Bellamy said.

“Yes, perceptions of personal finances have improved, but this is offset by growing concerns about the economy. We’ve seen this pattern before.

“During periods of political and economic uncertainty – most notably in late 2022 – consumers became more cautious but also more self-reliant.”

The GfL survey is frequently cited in Bank of England reports as a key indicator for consumer trends.

Researchers also measure people’s confidence about their savings pots.

Despite being four points higher on the month, the latest score, 28, was just two points lower than last year’s reading, posing a question to the effects four interest rate cuts have had on Brits.

Dovish members on the Bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC) have suggested that lower borrowing costs has not stimulated spending and demand remains weak.

External member Alan Taylor has suggested keeping interest rates too high for too long could put the UK economy at greater risk from suffering from a recession.

Recent figures showed inflation hitting 3.4 per cent in the year to December.

While economists have argued that inflation will rapidly slow down from April due to changes on energy pricing, some have suggested that high food price growth and sticky wage growth could put the Bank’s aims of bringing inflation down to 2 per cent at jeopardy.

Consumer confidence has been negative for 10 years

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Go long silver.

UK homes to get £15bn for solar and green tech to cut energy bills

Updated 21 January 2026

Households will be eligible for thousands of pounds' worth of solar panels and other green tech to lower their energy bills, the government has announced.

The long-awaited Warm Homes Plan promises to provide £15bn to households across the UK over the next five years, as well as introducing new rights for renters.

The government has said it wants to create a "rooftop revolution", tripling the number of homes with solar, and lifting one million people out of fuel poverty.

The plan has been strongly welcomed by the energy and finance industry, but the Conservative Party said the scheme will "saddle households with high ongoing running costs".

First touted back in 2024, the Warm Homes Plan promised to tackle the "national emergency" of rising energy bills, but it has taken two years for the final detail to be published.

The government announced that the plan, published on Wednesday, will focus on funding solar panels, heat pumps and batteries for households across the UK via low-interest loans and grants.

For able-to-pay households even with the grants there are likely to be additional costs of installing the technologies. For a heat pump after the subsidy households pay on average £5,000.

But for an average three bedroom semi-detached home, installing these three technologies, could save £500 annually on energy bills, it estimates.

Although social charity Nesta, and green energy charity, MCS Foundation, have estimated, external it could be more than £1000.

"A warm home shouldn't be a privilege, it should be a basic guarantee for every family in Britain," said Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

Ed Miliband said the "cost of living crisis is the biggest issue the country faces" and that "upgrading homes is a crucial part of getting bills down".

Speaking to BBC Breakfast on Wednesday, the Energy Secretary said the move was aimed at "expanding the choices that people have, so something like a heat pump or a solar panel isn't just in the reach of the wealthiest".

Measures in the plan include:

Extending the Boiler Upgrade Scheme by a further year to 2029/30, offering £7,500 grants for air source heat pumps
Additional £600m for low-income households to receive funding for the full cost of solar panels and batteries taking the total available to £5bn
Low and zero-interest loans for households irrespective of income

The plan has been strongly welcomed by the energy industry, workers' unions, and the finance sector, who see the long-term financial commitment by the government as crucial for driving private investment into green technologies.

"£15 billion is a substantial commitment, it provides certainty to investors and businesses in the energy market," said Dhara Vyas, chief executive of trade body Energy UK.

Camilla Born, CEO of Electrify Britain - a joint campaign group from Octopus and EDF to encourage switching to electric heating - also welcomed the announcement and said it will help cut bills long-term but said "the bad side is that it is a plan, and we need delivery".

Some of the schemes are already distributing grants, but for new funding the government has yet to decide how or when households will receive the money. It said that "further engagement with the finance sector" is needed this year.

Richard Tice, Reform deputy leader, strongly criticised the plan and said it was: "A scandalous waste of up to £15bn of taxpayers' cash primarily buying Chinese made solar panels, batteries and heat pumps, that is bad for British industry."

Two thirds (68%) of the solar panels imported by the UK came from China in 2024, according to HMRC trade data.

UK households to get £15bn for solar and green tech to lower energy bills - BBC News

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion. More long forgotten J. F. Fasch. Approx. 14 minutes.

Johann Friedrich Fasch - Concerto per liuto in re minore FWV L:d 2

Johann Friedrich Fasch - Concerto per liuto in re minore FWV L:d 2

Next, more fun with numbers. Approx.8 minutes and 5 minutes.

The Uncracked Problem with 33 – Numberphile