Baltic
Dry Index. 1650 +83 Brent Crude 64.03
Spot Gold 4719 Spot Silver 94.40
US 2 Year Yield 3.56 Friday
US Federal Debt. 38.630 trillion US GDP 31.079 trillion.
“The markets in the long run are no doubt driven by fundamental economic laws—if the United States runs a persistent trade deficit, the dollar will eventually plummet—but in the short run money flows less rationally. Fear and, to a lesser extent, greed are what make money move.”
Michael Lewis, Liar's Poker
Why is President Trump so fixated on Greenland that he’s now willing to deprive all but billionaire American’s French wines and champagne?
Left with only Californian, Oregon and Canadian sparkling wines, a cruel and horrible fate for most other Americans.
This week it’s all about President Trump’s insane obsession with icy Greenland and his willingness to bring on the next Great Depression to get it.
Someone in Norway give DJT a Nobel Peace Prize or two ASAP; it’s got to be worth it to stop new global depression!
Asia markets trade subdued as Trump’s
Greenland-linked tariff threats weigh on risk sentiment
Published Mon, Jan 19 2026 6:51 PM EST
Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower on
Monday as investors assessed renewed U.S. tariff threats tied to Greenland,
raising concerns about escalating trade tensions with Europe.
European states are reportedly discussing
counter-tariffs and broader punitive economic measures in response to fresh
tariff threats from President Donald Trump, further straining relations over
Greenland.
Trump on Saturday announced that exports
from eight European nations would start at 10% on Feb. 1 and climb to 25% by
June 1 if talks fail to secure U.S. control of Greenland, a mineral-rich,
semi-autonomous island under Danish control.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.1%,
while mainland China’s CSI 300 traded flat after heightened
regulatory scrutiny following a surge in trading activity.
Authorities have moved to rein in leverage
after onshore market turnover hit record levels, driven in part by a rise in
margin trading balances to an all-time high.
Despite the tightening, Standard
Chartered’s Raymond Cheng said the bank remains positive on China A shares,
citing a stabilizing economy and expected fiscal policy support at China’s
upcoming policy meetings in March 2026.
“We view the strength of China equities as
sustainable, given policy stimulus to add further upside to our projected
mid-teen earnings growth for the forward 12 months,” the bank’s regional chief
investment officer for Greater China said.
Investors are closely watching
developments in Japanese markets after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on
Monday that she plans to dissolve parliament and call a snap election on Feb.
8.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.7%, while
the Topix declined 0.52%. South Korea’s Kospi fell 0.41%, while the small-cap
Kosdaq traded flat.
Yields on Japan’s 40-year government bond
rose to 4% for
the first time.
Japan’s ruling coalition holds a one-seat
Lower House majority following its formation in October, when Takaichi became
prime minister after her predecessor resigned. While the snap election would
raise near-term political uncertainty, it could bring greater policy clarity if
a government emerges with a stronger mandate, Fitch Group said in a note.
Fitch expects government debt to remain
elevated over the medium term, but to gradually decline as stronger nominal GDP
growth offsets wider fiscal deficits and higher borrowing costs.
Consolidated general government debt is
projected to ease to the mid-190% range of GDP by fiscal 2029, from an
estimated 199.5% in fiscal 2025 and a peak of 222% in fiscal 2020.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.46%.
U.S. stock futures pointed to a downbeat
session on Wall Street as Trump intensifies his rhetoric on Greenland.
Asia-Pacific
markets today: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng Index
Trump threatens 200% tariff on French wines as
Macron reportedly snubs ‘Board of Peace’ seat
Published Tue, Jan 20 2026 12:35 AM EST
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday
threatened to impose 200% tariffs on French wines and champagne, as French
President Emmanuel Macron is reportedly set to refuse joining his “Board of Peace”
on Gaza.
When asked for a response by a reporter in
Miami, Trump said “Well, nobody wants him because he’s going to be out of
office very soon. So you know, that’s all right. What I’ll do is ... I’ll put a
200% tariff on his wines and champagnes, and he’ll join. But he doesn’t have to
join.”
Trump also reiterated his plans to control
Greenland, saying that European leaders “won’t push back too much.”
“We have to have it ... They can’t protect
it,” he added.
Trump
threatens 200% tariff on French wines and champagnes
Japan’s 40-year bond yield hits 4% record
on fiscal jitters following election call
Published Mon, Jan 19 2026 9:20 PM EST
Japan’s 40-year government bond yield hit
a record high on Tuesday amid a broad selloff in government bonds, as investors
worried that proposed cuts to the food sales tax could worsen the country’s
fiscal position.
The long-dated yield rose more than 5
basis points to 4%, the highest level since the 40-year maturity was
introduced.
Yields on shorter maturities climbed
sharply as well. The 10-year Japan government bond yield rose by over 6 basis
points to 2.3%, the highest level since 1999, while yields on the 20-year tenor
jumped by around 9 basis points to 3.35%.
The selloff came a day after Prime
Minister Sanae Takaichi said she plans to dissolve parliament on Friday and
call a snap election on Feb. 8, setting the stage for a campaign that is
expected to focus heavily on economic policy.
“Ultra‑long JGB yields are being pushed
higher not only by the structural supply–demand imbalance but also by a fresh
re-pricing of term and risk premium as markets absorb a more expansionary
fiscal stance and persistent inflation,” said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income
strategist at State Street Investment Management.
That repricing has revived a familiar
market pattern, he added. “This has revived the classic ‘Takaichi
trade’ dynamic of stronger Nikkei, weaker JGBs and yen,” Loo told CNBC.
It was a repeat of the volatility seen in
October last year, when Japanese markets reacted to comments and policy signals
from Takaichi that pointed toward looser fiscal policy, which later stabilized,
he added.
He added that the current move has strong
technical and sentiment echoes rather than signaling structural distress.
Loo said the yield curve is likely to
remain steep through the first half of this year before stabilizing as bond
issuance patterns adjust and domestic banks return as buyers.
Similarly, analysts at Crédit Agricole
Corporate and Investment Bank said markets are increasingly pricing in a
durable shift toward aggressive fiscal policy under Takaichi. They said that
stance, which aims to move away from what Takaichi described as the “shackles of excessive austerity,” could translate into
larger deficits.
Japan's
40-year bond yield hits 4% record on fiscal jitters following election call
In other news, has President Trump totally lost
it?
Trump’s Letter to Norway Should Be the Last Straw
Will Republicans in Congress ever step in?
By Anne Applebaum January 19, 2026, 9:11 AM ET
Let me begin by quoting, in full, a letter that the president of the United States of America sent yesterday to the prime minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre. The text was forwarded by the White House National Security Council to ambassadors in Washington, and was clearly intended to be widely shared. Here it is:
Dear Jonas:
Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only a boat that landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT
One could observe many things about this
document. One is the childish grammar, including the strange capitalizations
(“Complete and Total Control”). Another is the loose grasp of history. Donald
Trump did not end eight wars. Greenland has been Danish territory for
centuries. Its residents are Danish citizens who vote in Danish elections.
There are many “written documents” establishing Danish sovereignty in
Greenland, including some signed by the United States. In his second term,
Trump has done nothing for NATO—an organization that the U.S. created and
theoretically leads, and that has only ever been used in defense of American
interests. If the European members of NATO have begun spending more on their
own defense (budgets to which the U.S. never contributed), that’s because of
the threat they feel from Russia.
More
Trump’s
Letter to Norway Should Be the Last Straw - The Atlantic
USA's declaration on Danish sovereignty of
Greenland, 1916
On 4th August 1916, the American
government issued a declaration to the Danish government that it would not
raise objections if Denmark extended its interests in Greenland to include the
entire island. This was perhaps surprising given the 1832 Monroe Doctrine
intended to limit European colonialism. The declaration paved the way for
recognition of Danish sovereignty by other nations.
20 June 2019 by Original source
The declaration (reproduced below) was included as an appendix to the contract concerning the sale of the Danish West Indies to USA, both of which were signed on 4th August 1916. The American foreign minister Robert Lansing (1864-1928) signed the declaration on behalf of the USA in support of Denmark's claim to sovereignty over Greenland.
Since 1721, Denmark had had a presence
predominantly on the west coast of Greenland, but a greater number of Danish
expeditions started to reach the previously impassable areas in north and east
Greenland from 1880s. In 1894, Ammassalik (now Tasiilaq) on the east coast
became a permanent trading post, for example. A private trading post in Thule
(now Qaanaaq) in north Greenland was founded in 1909/10, eventually being sold
to the Danish state in 1937.
The declaration was extremely important:
More
USA's
declaration on Danish sovereignty of Greenland, 1916
Trump tariffs: EU ‘has tools at disposal’ to hit
back amid Greenland spat
Monday 19 January 2026 9:42
am | Updated: Monday 19 January 2026 11:37 am
The European Union has pledged it has the
“tools” to hit back at the US after President Trump’s latest trade offensive
amid the deepening
Greenland crisis.
In a daily briefing the European
Commission’s deputy chief spokesperson and trade lead, Olof Gill, said
“should the threatened tariffs be imposed, the European Union has tools at its
disposal and is prepared to respond because we will do everything
necessary to protect EU’s economic interests.”
Gill also added current priorities centred
around engaging and not escalating, adding “sometimes the most responsible form
of leadership is restraint”.
It follows Trump announcing the United
Kingdom, along with Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Finland
and Germany would face a 10 per cent a new tariff for their efforts defending
Greenland’s sovereignty.
European nations came to the staunch
defence of Greenland, which is an autonomous member of Nato member Denmark –
meaning it governs itself domestically but is represented by the latter on
defence and foreign policy matters.
Trump said the tariffs would come into
effect on 1 February and increase to 25 per cent come 1 June 2026, remaining in
place until “a deal is reached for the complete and total purchase of
Greenland”.
The EU is said to be gearing up to hit the
US with a staggering €93bn tariff package, which was frozen during the summer
of 2025 in negotiations after Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ levies.
Gill said the “automatic” suspension of
the package lifts on 6 February, with the measures kicking in the following
day.
Officials across Europe are set to meet
with the Trump Administration at the World
Economic Forum in Davos this week with hopes the threat of the tariffs
package could give them crucial leverage in negotiations.
Starmer tells Trump tariffs ‘wrong’
Downing Street confirmed on Sunday Starmer
had told Trump that “applying tariffs on allies for pursuing the collective
security of Nato allies is wrong” in a telephone call.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer doubled
down on calls for “calm discussion” in a press conference on Monday, where he
called for allies to “find
a way forward” and “avoid a tariff war”.
Across Europe, reaction has remained
strong with Italy’s Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni branding the tariffs a
mistake and the Dutch foreign minister, David van Weel, comparing the threats
to “blackmail”.
Markets are taking the news in a mixed
response. The FTSE 100 quickly tumbled 0.4 per cent before edging further down
after some volatility.
“The direction of market movements is
consistent with past examples, but the scale of the reaction appears modest,”
Patrick Munnelly, partner at Market Strategy Tickmill Group, said.
“Investors may believe the present will be
another instance of “TACO”
(Trump Always Chickens Out), where the eventual outcome differs from the initial
threat to reopen the trade war.”
Comparatively, in Trump’s April 2025
‘Liberation Day’ where sweeping levies were slapped on the US’ trading
partners, the FTSE 100 fell 11 per cent in under a week.
Gold – often a safe-haven asset for
investors in geopolitical conflict – hit a record of over $4,680 an ounce
Monday morning and silver surged around four per cent to an all-time high.
“The FTSE 100 seems to be the teflon index
– not even a new US-Europe trade war and the potential collapse of NATO seems
capable of stopping it,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG,
told City AM.
“While we should take all of today’s moves
with a pinch of salt due to US markets being closed for MLK Day, the selling
has been relatively contained, perhaps awaiting a bigger response from the EU.”
Trump tariffs: EU
'has tools at disposal' to hit back amid Greenland spat
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
China fourth-quarter growth slows to 4.5%, weakest
in nearly three years as consumption misses forecasts
Published Sun, Jan 18 2026
China’s economic growth slowed to its
weakest pace in nearly three years in the fourth quarter as domestic demand
softened, though full-year growth matched Beijing’s target despite growing
trade frictions with the U.S. and a prolonged real estate slump.
Gross domestic product grew 4.5% in the
October-to-December period, data from the National Statistics Bureau showed
Monday. That marked a slowdown from 4.8% in the third quarter and was the
weakest reading since the first quarter of 2023, when growth also came
in at 4.5%.
Full-year economic output came in at 5%,
meeting the official target of around 5%.
Separate December data showed domestic
consumption weakened and the investment decline steepened, while manufacturing
improved.
Retail sales grew 0.9% in December from a
year earlier, missing economists’ forecast for 1.2% growth and slowing from
1.3% in the prior month. That marked the softest growth since December 2022,
according to Wind Information, when the gauge of consumption declined 1.8% year
on year.
Industrial output climbed 5.2% in
December, topping expectations for a 5% growth and up from 4.8% in the previous
month.
Fixed-asset investment, which includes
real estate, contracted 3.8% last year, worse than economists’ forecast for a
3% drop in a Reuters poll. Investment in property development continued to
decline as a real estate crisis dragged on, falling
17.2% in
2025, deepening from the 10.6%
drop in 2024.
The urban unemployment rate remained
unchanged at 5.1% in December.
---- Supply-demand imbalance
The world’s second-largest economy showed
resilience in 2025, largely helped by lower-than-expected tariff rates and
exporters’ push to diversify away from the U.S., allowing policymakers to delay
launching large-scale stimulus.
China reported a record trade surplus
of nearly $1.2
trillion last
year, driven by surging exports to non-U.S. markets as manufacturers redirected
shipments to avoid higher U.S. tariffs.
The anticipated drag from front-loaded
shipments, tighter transshipment controls and currency appreciation has been
limited, said Tommy Xie, managing director of OCBC Bank. Xie expects China’s
exports to grow around 3% in 2026.
China’s net exports accounted for nearly
one-third of its GDP in 2025, while consumption contributed 52% to the economic
output, statistics bureau director Kang Yi told reporters Monday.
Exports continued to face headwinds. U.S.
President Donald Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on countries doing business
with Iran, including China, and the trade truce with Washington is set to
expire later this year. China’s staggering trade imbalance has also drawn
criticism from trading partners seeking to shield domestic industries from an
influx of cheap Chinese goods.
More
China
fourth-quarter growth slows to 4.5%, weakest in nearly three years
Trump's Europe tariff threat over Greenland
revives talk of 'Sell America' trade
By Yoruk Bahceli and Dhara Ranasinghe January 19, 20264 :07 PM GMT
LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - U.S. President
Donald Trump's renewed tariff threats against European
allies amid rising tension over Greenland have revived talk of the 'Sell
America' trade that emerged in the aftermath of his sweeping Liberation Day
levies last April.
Stock markets bore the brunt on Monday of
fears that the trade war could re-escalate, with European equities dropping
over 1% and U.S. stock futures taking a similar hit that points to weakness
following Monday's public holiday.
The dollar was on the back foot too, a
sign that the world's No.1 reserve currency was also in the crosshairs of Trump's
threat on Saturday to increase tariffs on goods from several European
countries until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland. They will start
with a 10% tariff from February 1, rising to 25% on June 1.
The euro bounced from its lowest since
late November, along with sterling and Scandinavian currencies. The Swiss franc
, a classic safe haven, headed for its largest daily rise against the dollar in
a month.
"I'm sure that there are a lot of
people that are fairly aghast at what happened over the weekend and probably
thinking about how they hold their assets," said Francesca Fornasari, head
of currency solutions at Insight Investment.
She said the dollar could move lower but
was also supported by a strong U.S. economy and U.S. shares.
And so far, market moves are modest,
especially compared to last April's near 2% daily dollar
slide following Liberation Day. It's a sign, some analysts said, that
markets think Trump will end up de-escalating, as he has done previously.
A pending U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the
legality of Trump's tariffs and uncertainty on how European capitals will
respond also blur the picture.
The EU may respond with tariffs against
the U.S., but could also implement the so far untested "anti-coercion
instrument", which could limit U.S. access to public tenders,
investments or banking activity or restrict trade in services.
"For the most part so far it would
appear to be more noise than signal at this point," said Leonard Kwan,
fixed income portfolio manager at T Rowe Price.
WILL EUROPEAN INVESTORS DUMP U.S. ASSETS?
While deep and liquid U.S. capital markets
- the Treasury market alone is worth $30 trillion - make diversification for
international investors hard, the U.S. is also vulnerable to foreign outflows,
analysts said.
European countries are the United States'
biggest creditor, owning $8 trillion worth of equities and bonds, almost twice
as much as the rest of the world combined, said Deutsche Bank.
"In an environment where the
geoeconomic stability of the Western alliance is being disrupted existentially,
it is not clear why Europeans would be as willing to play this part,"
Deutsche Bank's global head of FX research George Saravelos wrote.
The question is whether European investors
would sell and what that would take.
ING said that there would be little the EU
could do to force European private sector investors to sell dollar assets, it
could only try to incentivise investments in euro ones.
----Even if European assets could
potentially benefit from shifts away from the U.S., Trump's tariff threats
renew uncertainty for Europe's economy.
Capital Economics said the countries most
exposed to increased U.S. tariffs were the UK and Germany, estimating that a
25% tariff could knock 0.2%–0.3% off their output.
Economists warned the full economic impact
could be larger given uncertainty and potential EU retaliation.
Trump's
Europe tariff threat over Greenland revives talk of 'Sell America' trade |
Reuters
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Engineers just
created a “phonon laser” that could shrink your next smartphone
Date: January 17, 2026
Source: University of Colorado at Boulder
Summary: Engineers have created a device that generates
incredibly tiny, earthquake-like vibrations on a microchip—and it could
transform future electronics. Using a new kind of “phonon laser,” the team can
produce ultra-fast surface waves that already play a hidden role in
smartphones, GPS systems, and wireless tech. Unlike today’s bulky setups, this
single-chip device could deliver far higher performance using less power,
opening the door to smaller, faster, and more efficient phones and wireless
devices.
Engineers have taken a major step toward
producing the smallest earthquakes ever created, shrinking seismic-style
vibrations down to the scale of a microchip.
The breakthrough centers on a device
called a surface acoustic wave phonon laser. The technology could eventually
enable more advanced chips for smartphones and other wireless electronics,
helping make them smaller, faster, and more energy efficient.
The research was led by Matt
Eichenfield, an incoming faculty member at the University of Colorado Boulder,
along with scientists from the University of Arizona and Sandia National
Laboratories. Their findings were published Jan. 14 in the journal Nature.
What Are Surface Acoustic Waves?
The new device relies on surface
acoustic waves, commonly known as SAWs. These waves behave somewhat like sound
waves, but instead of traveling through the air or deep inside a material, they
move only along its surface.
Large earthquakes naturally produce
powerful surface acoustic waves that ripple across the Earth's crust, shaking
buildings and causing damage. On a much smaller scale, SAWs are already
essential to modern technology.
"SAWs devices are critical to the
many of the world's most important technologies," said Eichenfield, senior
author of the new study and Gustafson Endowed Chair in Quantum Engineering at
CU Boulder. "They're in all modern cell phones, key fobs, garage door
openers, most GPS receivers, many radar systems and more."
More
Engineers just created a “phonon laser” that could shrink your next
smartphone | ScienceDaily
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
“Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate
real estate. It will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of
living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more
moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up the
wrecks from less competent people.”
Andrew Mellon
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