Baltic
Dry Index. 1718 -58 Brent Crude 62.46
Spot Gold 4475 Spot Silver 76.67
US 2 Year Yield 3.49 +0.02
US Federal Debt. 38.584 trillion US GDP 31.047 trillion.
If you pay people not to work and tax them when they do, don't be surprised if you get unemployment.
Milton Friedman
It is US jobs report Friday, but is it US Supreme Court Friday for Team Trump’s tariffs?
As the US Nasdaq slips, is it the beginning of the end of the AI bubble.
Are US auto sales warning that a largely spent out US consumers are reaching the end of “buy now, pay later?”
An interesting day lies ahead.
Dow closes 270 points higher, Nasdaq slips as
investors rotate out of tech: Live updates
Updated Thu, Jan 8 2026 4:18 PM EST
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose
on Thursday, while the Nasdaq
Composite came under pressure as investors moved away from technology
stocks.
The 30-stock Dow climbed 270.03 points, or
0.55%, and ended at 49,266.11. The tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 0.44% and settled
at 23,480.02. The S&P 500 advanced
0.01% and closed at 6,921.46. Among the 11 S&P 500 sectors, information
technology was the laggard, falling more than 1%.
Artificial intelligence darling Nvidia was among the names
investors exited, ending the day down more than 2%. Fellow AI play Oracle pulled back nearly 2%.
Shares of iPhone maker Apple were
also down, notching a seventh day of losses.
While Rob Haworth, senior investment
strategy director at U.S. Bank Asset Management, believes that tech and AI will
remain an important theme for 2026, he thinks the trade’s status as an upside
driver will be dependent on whether use cases start to arise and in what
sectors.
“We’re seeing early signs of that in
health care,” he said. “When we think about robotics, insurance, diagnostics,
all these types of companies are going to be early beneficiaries. That’s where
we think the growth story is.”
To be sure, Haworth added that the
performance will need to broaden out, citing industrials and financials as two
key areas to watch. He said, “Those stories are starting to look better this
year, and I think that will be key for this rally to continue.”
Defense stocks were a bright spot of the
day, as key names rallied after President Donald Trump called for a $1.5
trillion defense budget in 2027 — a massive increase from the $901
billion approved by Congress for 2026. Northrop Grumman jumped more
than 2%, and Lockheed Martin gained
more than 4%. Additionally, RTX advanced
almost 1%, and Kratos Defense popped
close to 14%.
The S&P 500 and Dow ended
Wednesday’s session in the red after touching fresh all-time highs. Those
declines came as crude prices slid after Trump said that interim authorities in
Venezuela will be turning over as
much as 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., prompting concerns over
increasing oil supply.
Oil prices rebounded Thursday,
with brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude
each settling higher by more than 4%.
Stock
market news for Jan. 8, 2026
The December jobs report is due out Friday. Here’s
what it is expected to show
Published Thu, Jan 8 2026 3:57 PM EST
The U.S. labor market likely showed modest
improvement in December, providing some encouragement for the year ahead but
nothing to get too excited about.
Nonfarm payrolls likely rose by 73,000
last month while the unemployment rate edged lower to 4.5%, according to the
Dow Jones consensus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the report
Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
If those numbers are near accurate, it
would represent a slight step up from the 55,000 average monthly gain during
the prior 11 months of 2025 and would be a bit better than the initially
reported 64,000 for
November.
The jobless rate is half a percentage point above where it was at the start of
last year.
Heading into 2026, most economists see
a labor
market far from stellar, but at least stable.
“The year is ending stronger than it
started,” said Amy Glaser, senior vice president of business operations at
Adecco Staffing. “We’ve seen some positivity, both in terms of hiring as well
as [a] slow down of layoffs. So [the market is] looking pretty positive going
into 2026. I think it’ll be the year of stability.”
The labor market moved in a tight range
through most of 2025, from a peak gain of 158,000 in April to a loss of 105,000
in October. Three of the last six months saw net losses.
“We’re just seeing that it’s not too cold,
not too hot, it’s kind of right in the middle,” Glaser said. “I think that’s
where we’ll continue to see 2026 as folks are cautiously optimistic. We’ll
probably see some ups and downs and add a little bit of bumpiness along the
way. It may not be linear, but at the end of the day I think the market has
proved resilient.”
Though the outward signs of the labor
market show unemployment at a very low rate historically speaking, some Federal
Reserve policymakers worry that cracks are showing that could grow
more pronounced this year.
Policymakers who backed the recent run
of three
straight interest rate cuts have cited a need to strengthen the jobs
outlook as outweighing concerns over inflation reigniting. Fed officials also
have cited a “systematic
overcount” of payroll growth as a reason for their caution.
Markets have been pinning their hopes that
the Fed will intervene again if needed, said Jose Torres, senior economist at
Interactive Brokers.
“Confidence has been stronger this year on
the expectation that the Fed’s going to ease further,” he said. “That’s really
going to bolster the hiring in more cyclically oriented areas.”
Job growth has so far largely been
concentrated in areas that benefit from expansionary fiscal policy,
particularly health care and government. Glaser expects that trend to continue.
Outside of that pattern, Glaser said the
other trend to continue watching in 2026 is retention, or the efforts of
companies to keep the staff they have, rather than lay off or aggressively
hire.
More
The
December jobs report is due out Friday. What it's expected to show
The Supreme Court may rule Friday on Trump’s
tariffs. Here’s what’s at stake for the economy
Published Thu, Jan 8 2026 2:25 PM EST Updated
Thu, Jan 8 2026 3:55 PM EST
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday could
rule on the legality of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a
decision poised to have far-reaching impacts on not only trade policy, but also
the U.S. fiscal situation.
Though it’s not certain that the high
court will make its ruling, it has scheduled Friday as a “decision day” for
handing down opinions, and there is widespread speculation that the tariff case
will come up.
At its core, the ruling will address two
issues: whether the administration can use provisions
under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to levy the
tariffs, and if it isn’t proper, if the U.S. will have to reimburse those
importers who already have paid the duties.
However, the final decision could also
fall somewhere in between.
The court has the option to grant limited
powers under the IEEPA and require only limited repayment, along with multiple
other options for how it handles a touchy matter that is being closely watched
on Wall Street.
Moreover, even should the White House lose
the case, it has other
tools in its chest to implement tariffs that don’t require the
emergency powers cited under the act.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent himself
said Thursday he expects a “mishmash” ruling.
More
The
Supreme Court may rule Friday on Trump's tariffs. Here's what's at stake for
the economy
In other news, on the one hand, on the other.
HSBC’s guess is as good as anyone else’s. Berlin gets back electric power.
Gold could hit $5,000 an ounce in first half of
2026, says HSBC
8 January 2026
Jan 8 (Reuters) - Gold prices could rise
to $5,000 an ounce in the first half of 2026 on geopolitical risks and rising
debt, HSBC said on Thursday.
However, the bank lowered its average 2026
price forecast for gold to $4,587 an ounce from $4,600, citing risks that
rising prices could trigger a correction later in the year.
It added that this correction could be
deeper should geopolitical risks subside or if the U.S. Federal Reserve stops
cutting interest rates.
"We see a wide range of
$5,050-$3,950/oz for 2026 and an end-year price of $4,450/oz," HSBC said,
adding that trade is likely to feature high volatility.
HSBC also raised its 2027 and 2028 average
price forecasts to $4,625 and $4,700, from $3,950 and $3,630 respectively. The
note flagged a 2027 year-end price view of $4,600 and introduced a 2029 average
price forecast of $4,775.
Spot gold was trading near $4,427.48 on
Thursday after logging a 64% annual gain in 2025, its biggest since 1979.
[GOL/]
Gold could hit
$5,000 an ounce in first half of 2026, says HSBC
Power restored to thousands of Berlin households
after attack on lines causes several-day outage
Updated 11:12 AM GMT, January 7, 2026
BERLIN (AP) — Power was being restored on
Wednesday to thousands of households in Berlin that had been without
electricity in freezing temperatures for four days following a suspected
far-left attack on high-voltage lines, authorities said.
About 45,000 households and 2,200
businesses lost their supply on Saturday morning after a fire on a bridge that
carries high-voltage cables over the Teltow Canal, in the southwest of the
German capital, affecting an estimated 100,000 people.
Authorities were able gradually to
reconnect many to the network, but several days of work were required to repair
the damage. Some 25,500 households and 1,200 businesses were still without
power on Tuesday, largely in the prosperous Zehlendorf district.
It was the longest blackout in the city
since the end of World War II.
Berlin’s power network operator said
service was gradually being restored Wednesday to all remaining households,
German news agency dpa reported.
Investigators have focused on a written
claim of responsibility by a far-left group, headlined “Turning off the juice
to the rulers,” which said a gas-fired power plant in Berlin’s Lichterfelde
district had been “successfully sabotaged.” It claimed that the aim of the
action was to strike the fossil-fuel energy industry, not to cause power
outages. Germany’s domestic intelligence agency said self-styled “Volcano
Groups” have been carrying out attacks on infrastructure in Berlin and the
surrounding state of Brandenburg since 2011. A 2024 attack on a pylon that
supplies a Tesla factory near Berlin temporarily halted production.
On Tuesday, the German federal
prosecutor’s office said it was taking over the investigation, citing
suspicions of anticonstitutional sabotage, membership in a terrorist
organization and arson.
Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession
Watch.
Given
our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians,
inflation now needs an entire section of its own.
Slowing auto sales stoke concern over near-record car prices
January 6, 2026
(Bloomberg) -- High
prices threaten to send US auto sales into decline this year as middle-class
consumers shy away from new-vehicle purchases with stickers near record levels.
Major carmakers including
General Motors Co., Honda Motor Co. and Hyundai Motor Co. said sales fell
during the final three months of the year. Although industrywide volume likely
surpassed 16 million vehicles for 2025, the annualized rate slowed in the fourth
quarter to an estimated 15.6 million, down more than 5% from the third quarter,
according to industry researcher Cox Automotive.
Automakers are contending
with consumer angst about the cost of living that persisted throughout the last year, as well as curtailed government support
for electric vehicles and new tariffs that are pushing up costs. Randy Parker,
Chief Executive Officer of Hyundai’s North America business, said those issues
will continue to weigh on the industry this year.
The year ahead “is going
to be very challenging, Parker said, adding that he still expects Hyundai to
grow in 2026. “Affordability is going to be the key.”
New-car sales among
households with annual incomes of $75,000 or less have plunged 30% since 2019,
while sales fell 7% among families with incomes between $75,000 and $150,000,
according to Cox. Deliveries meanwhile soared 45% among households with annual
incomes of $150,000 or more in the same period.
More than one in five
new-car buyers signed up for loans with payments of more than $1,000 a month in
the fourth quarter, an all-time high, according to researcher Edmunds.com.
Cox expects affordability
to weigh on the market this year, forecasting US auto sales of 15.8 million
vehicles. That would mark the US auto industry’s first annual drop since 2022.
“The people who can still
afford new vehicles are buying what they want: larger premium vehicles,” said
Cox executive analyst Erin Keating. “Everyone else, they didn’t downgrade to a
compact car, they left the new market entirely, buying either used or hanging
onto what they’ve got.”
Sales Slowdown
Well-heeled buyers helped
GM report a 5.5% increase in sales last year. Volume at its pricey GMC truck
brand set a record and Cadillac reported its best year in a decade with its
large Escalade SUV showing big gains.
GM’s sales in the fourth
quarter fell 6.9%, as EVs and some of its cheapest models, such as the
Chevrolet Trax and Buick Encore GX, saw declines.
Honda said fourth-quarter
sales fell 9.5%, with its namesake brand declining 10%. Key models including
the Civic compact car and CR-V SUV were down in December.
Hyundai saw a 1% decline
in the most recent quarter, a late slowdown in what was a record year for the
South Korean automaker. Toyota Motor Corp. posted an 8.1% gain in the final
three months of the year and a 10% jump in December, led by its RAV4 compact
SUV and Camry sedan.
Stellantis NV said
deliveries rose 4% in the fourth quarter, lifted by Ram pickups and Chrysler
minivans. The Jeep brand also saw a 4% gain in the quarter, helping it break a
six-year losing streak to increase sales 1% for the year. The automaker’s full-year
sales fell 3% from 2024.
Tariff Pressure
The Trump administration
whipsawed carmakers and shoppers alike last year with new tariffs and moves to
gut environmental regulations that had pushed carmakers to sell more electric
vehicles.
Fears that duties would
drive prices even higher fueled a sales surge early last year before the levies took effect. Yet the import taxes
haven’t yet pushed up stickers, in part because automakers are largely absorbing the higher costs and due to moves by the government that have
provided carmakers with some relief.
Toyota expects demand to
remain strong this year, especially for its gas-electric hybrids which are
expected to make up more than half of its volume, said David Christ, head of
the Toyota brand in the US.
More
Slowing auto sales stoke concern over near-record car prices
Technology
Update.
With events happening fast in the
development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this
section. Updates as they get reported.
Are we facing an AI jobs apocalypse?
Thursday 08 January 2026 5:14 am
Police in Cornwall are on the hunt for a masked vandal seen on CCTV
spraying “AI will take our jobs” across multiple sites in the villages of
Polbathic, Widegates and Crafthole.
Is this vigilante right to warn us all?
Ask Chat GPT whether AI will lead to a jobs apocalypse and the answer is
suspiciously reassuring. “Every major general-purpose technology has triggered
the same fear,” it says, “but ultimately created more work than it eliminated.”
It would say that, wouldn’t it?
Perhaps I’m guilty of endowing it with a
duplicitous nature that it cannot possess, but there’s no doubt that many
people do fear a future in which it’s just easier, cheaper and more productive
to lean on AI than it is to hire, train and manage a pesky human with their
penchant for lunch breaks and pensions.
While disruption is inevitable, one of
the main impacts that AI is having on the current labour market is that demand
for tech expertise is through the roof. According to TotalJobs, mentions of tech-related capabilities in UK job
adverts rose 12 per cent between 2024 and 2025, and one in four recruiters now
rank AI as the most valuable skill when determining pay or a promotion.
Two-thirds of tech workers received a pay rise in the last 12 months, well
above the national average. Separate research by Robert Half finds that 56 per
cent of UK firms have plans to expand their tech teams in the first half of
2026.
Most analysts, including those at the
World Bank, say entry level and graduate jobs are most vulnerable to AI
replacement, but the debate is far from settled.
Oxford Economics yesterday published a
note saying they are “sceptical that firms can quickly and seamlessly
substitute workers with AI even in sectors where the potential for AI
disruption is greatest.” They say that “firms don’t appear to be replacing workers
with AI on a significant scale” and that if they were, it “stands to reason
that measures of labour productivity should be increasing, as the same output
is produced with fewer workers.”
This doesn’t appear to be happening, at
least not yet.
As things stand, employment taxes and
increased labour costs are a far bigger driver of unemployment than AI. The Cornish graffiti artist may have
a point, but they should probably insert some caveats into their work.
Are we facing an AI jobs apocalypse?
Next, the
world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.
World Debt Clocks
(usdebtclock.org)
Another
weekend and where will Team Trump strike next? Have a great weekend everyone.
Higher taxes never reduce the deficit. Governments spend
whatever they take in and then whatever they can get away with.
Milton Friedman
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