Special Update 31/01/2026 Turning Away The World. A Silver Crash

 Baltic Dry Index. 2148 +146       Brent Crude 69.32

Spot Gold 4907                              Spot Silver 85.25

U S 2 Year Yield 3.52 -0.01 

US Federal Debt. 38.676 trillion US GDP 31.111 trillion

Imagination is the only weapon in the war with reality.

Lewis Carroll.

On the last trading day of the month, massive volatility.

An interesting, if largely unpredictable February lies ahead.

But dinosaur Graeme wonders, where are all the losses (7 trillion) hiding? Who’s damaged but still solvent? Who’s insolvent but hiding it?

Are any US banks and shadow banks impaired?

Was the NY Fed involved behind the scenes?

The answers to some of this will come out in February. Interestingly, the Shanghai price of physical silver hasn't crashed and remains at $122/oz.  Is the Comex paper silver price a gigantic error?

Silver plunges 30% in worst day since 1980, gold tumbles as Warsh pick eases Fed independence fear

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 5:31 AM EST Updated Fri, Jan 30 2026 3:45 PM EST

Gold and silver prices plunged Friday, as President Donald Trump’s nomination for the next chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, appeared to relieve concerns about the central bank’s independence and sent the dollar soaring.

Spot silver was down 28% at $83.45 an ounce, trading near its lows of the day. Silver futures plummeted 31.4% to settle at $78.53, marking its worst day since March 1980.

Meanwhile, spot gold shed around 9% to trade at $4,895.22 an ounce. Gold futures dropped 11.4% to settle at $4,745.10.

The sharp moves down were initially triggered by reports of Warsh’s nomination. However, they gained steam in afternoon U.S. trading as investors who piled into the metals raced to book profits. Metals were also under pressure as the dollar spiked higher, making it more expensive for foreign investors to buy gold and silver and spoiling the theory that metals would replace the greenback as the globe’s reserve currency.

The dollar index last traded around 0.8% higher.

“This is getting crazy,” said Matt Maley, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. “Most of this is probably ‘forced selling.’ This has been the hottest asset for day traders and other short-term traders recently. So, there has been some leverage built up in silver. With the huge decline today, the margin calls went out.”

Trump picks Warsh

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett had been the favorite to replace Powell for some time, but Warsh became the front-runner in prediction markets in recent days.

In a note on Friday morning, Evercore ISI’s Krishna Guha said the market was “trading Warsh hawkish.”

“The Warsh pick should help stabilize the dollar some and reduce (though not eliminate) the asymmetric risk of deep extended dollar weakness by challenging debasement trades – which is also why gold and silver are sharply lower,” the firm’s vice chairman said.

“But, we advise against overdoing the Warsh hawkish trade across asset markets – and even see some risk of a whipsaw. We see Warsh as a pragmatist not an ideological hawk in the tradition of the independent conservative central banker.”

Claudio Wewel, FX strategist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday that a “perfect storm” of geopolitical tensions had helped precious metals move higher this year, pointing to the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and Washington’s threats to use military force in Greenland and Iran.

More recently, he said, speculation over who would be nominated as the next Fed chair had been influencing metals markets.

“The market has clearly been pricing the risk of a much more dovish contender, that’s been largely helping the gold price along with other precious metal prices. Over the last 24 hours, the news flow has changed a little bit,” Wewel said, prior to Trump’s announcement.

‘Even good assets can sell-off’

Gold and silver both enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135%, respectively, over the course of the year.

Coeur Mining lost 17%. Silver ETFs were dragged into the action, with the ProShares Ultra Silver fund last seen more than 62% lower. The iShares Silver Trust ETF lost 31%. Both funds were headed for their worst days on record.

Precious metals have been on a stellar rally over the past 12 months, amid broader market volatility, the decline of the U.S. dollar, bubbling geopolitical tensions and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve.

Katy Stoves, investment manager at British wealth management firm Mattioli Woods, told CNBC on Friday morning that the moves were likely “a market-wide reassessment of concentration risk.”

 “Just as tech stocks — particularly AI-related names — have dominated market attention and capital flows, gold has similarly seen intense positioning and crowding,” she said. “When everyone is leaning the same way, even good assets can sell off as positions get unwound. The parallel isn’t accidental: both represent areas where capital has flooded in based on powerful narratives, and concentrated positions eventually face their day of reckoning.”

Meanwhile, Toni Meadows, head of investment at BRI Wealth Management, contended that gold’s run to the $5,000 mark had happened “too easily.” He noted that the unwinding of the greenback had supported gold prices, but that the dollar had appeared to stabilize.

“Central bank buying has driven the longer-term rally but this has tailed off in recent months,” he said. “The case for further reserve diversification is still there though as Trump’s trade policies and intervention in foreign affairs will make a lot of countries nervous about holding U.S. assets, especially those countries in the emerging markets or aligned to China or Russia. Silver will mirror the direction of gold, so it is not surprising to see falls there.”

Silver, gold sell off as precious metals markets nosedive

Microsoft stock is flat the day after sinking 10%. Here’s why

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 6:47 AM EST Updated Fri, Jan 30 2026 12:30 PM EST

Microsoft’s stock was largely flat on Friday, after the stock saw its biggest daily decline since 2020, sliding 10% Thursday after it reported earnings.

Shares fell despite the company’s second-quarter earnings beating analyst revenue expectations.

Like other hyperscalers, Microsoft has invested huge sums in its AI infrastructure buildout. But Meta reported huge AI spending on the same day and its stock jumped 8%.

Why did Microsoft’s stock drop?

Investors latched onto the growth of Microsoft’s cloud computing platform Azure and other cloud services, which came in at 39% below StreetAccount’s 39.4% consensus. Those areas saw 40% growth in the fiscal first quarter.

The company’s CFO Amy Hood said that the cloud business’ results could have been higher if the company had allocated more data center infrastructure to customers rather than prioritising in-house needs.

Implied operating margin for third-quarter also came up short, with Microsoft calling for about $12.6 billion in revenue from the More Personal Computing segment that includes Windows, which was lower than StreetAccount’s $13.7 billion consensus.

What analysts are saying

In a post-earnings note on Thursday, Barclays analyst Raimo Lenschow said most investors focused solely on Azure growth to judge the health of Microsoft’s business, especially in its performance around AI.

“It now looks like the company will not really accelerate Azure further from here, due to the law of large numbers and extra capacity being used for its own, higher-margin, first party offerings like Co-Pilot and its own AI R&D efforts,” he said.

More

Microsoft stock is flat the day after sinking 10%. Here's why

World leaders flock to Beijing, hedging against U.S. disruptions

Published Fri, Jan 30 2026 2:15 AM EST

BEIJING — Countries that shunned China during its trade dispute with the U.S. are now sending their leaders to Beijing for meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping — and are keen to strike business deals.

At least five national leaders, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, have visited Xi in January alone. Uruguay’s President Yamandú Orsi is due to make the trip next week — the first by a South American leader since U.S. President Donald Trump captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife in early January.

The Canadian and British leaders’ trips are the first in at least eight years, while a visit by Ireland’s prime minister on Jan. 5 was the first in 14 years. China had closed its borders during the Covid-19 pandemic and only reopened them in earnest in early 2023.

“These visits reflect managed, selective resets under rising U.S. policy uncertainty, rather than a strategic pivot to China,” said Yue Su, principal economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.

“Keeping communication channels open with Beijing is increasingly seen as preferable to disengagement,” she said, “particularly as the gains from selective resets with China become more visible, and U.S. policy has grown less predictable.”

Since taking office 12 months ago, Trump has wielded tariffs not just on China but a slew of U.S. trading partners. In recent months, he’s increased efforts to ramp up U.S. influence over Venezuela, Iran and Greenland.

It’s an opportunity for Beijing, which has sought to portray itself as not only a partner for developing countries but also as a stabilizing force for the world.

“Maintaining distance from the United States indicates that these countries value ties with China’s large economy,” Cui Shoujun, an international studies professor at Renmin University of China, said in a phone interview Thursday. That’s according to a CNBC translation of his Mandarin-language remarks.

European and other countries may still need to align with the U.S. on security issues, but they are now increasing economic engagement, Cui said.

Facilitating business deals

Large business delegations often accompany national leaders when making state visits. Nearly 60 British companies and cultural organizations sent representatives to accompany the U.K. prime minister on his China trip. British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca used the state visit to announce plans to invest $15 billion in China through 2030.

Similarly, during Carney’s visit, Canada agreed to cut tariffs on a limited number of China-made electric cars to 6.1% from 100%, in exchange for lower Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola seeds.

Global businesses have also long been keen to sell to China’s large consumer market, the second-largest in the world.

More

Starmer, Carney, Orsi visit Beijing, China to strike deals

Tourists turning away from USA following planned social media checks

29 January 2026

Holidaymakers are now seemingly turning away from going to the USA following the announcement of planned social media checks. 

A new survey, by the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) analysed the answers of 4,500 respondents from many different countries involved with the ESTA programme.

It found a third of tourists admit they are less likely to go to America if the social media proposals are introduced, Sky News reports. 

Proposals announced by US Customs and Border Protection in December, via a 'mandatory' notice published in the Federal Register, could mean overseas visitors would be required to make their social media activity over the last five years open to scrutiny.

The plans mean any hint of anti-American sentiment posted online could land tourists hoping to visit the country in hot water with border officials. 

If overseas visitors do fall in such a way, the WTTC estimates tourism spending could be cut by $15bn (£10.8bn). 

It could also hit a whopping 157,000 jobs. 

Some 66 per cent of respondents shared they were aware of the possible new regulations.

It's not the first time concerns have been raised about tourism to the US being impacted.

When the proposals were first announced, Peter Greenberg, aka The Travel Detective, told BBC 5 Live Breakfast that the US faces losing huge tourist revenue if the plans go ahead.

The News Travel Editor at CBS said: 'They're proposing up to a $15,000 bond to guarantee that when a visit is over, they don't extend their visa and they come home. How many people can afford that?

'Adding to that [the bond] is the new proposal that tourists may have to provide five years of social media history that needs to be inspected.

'Add those things together and you'll understand already why there's been a huge drop in inbound travel to the United States this summer, resulting in lost revenue that can never be recouped.' 

American President Donald Trump previously commented on whether he was worried about the plans impacting tourism.

According to Sky News, he said: 'We want safety, we want security, we want to make sure we're not letting the wrong people come into our country.'

WTTC CEO and president Gloria Guevara, noted that security is 'vital' but went on to outline the damage the new plans could cause. 

She explained: 'Security at the US border is vital, but the planned policy changes will damage job creation, which the US administration values so much.

'Even modest shifts in visitor behaviour, discouraged by the planned changes, will have real economic consequences for US travel and tourism, particularly in a highly competitive global market.'

It comes after we revealed how to get your phone ready if US border force ask you to go through it. 

Tourists turning away from USA following planned social media checks

In other news, trouble ahead for copper and silver? Well, less so for silver if this new material eventually lowers copper production. Silver is a big byproduct of copper production. But any tantalum nitride effect is probably still years away.

But see Monday’s LIR technical section.

Newly discovered material conducts heat nearly 3x faster than any metal

January 27, 2026

Data center servers, powerful smartphones, and your computer's motherboard have one thing in common. When these devices get too hot, their performance takes a hit, and we can't have that. That's why copper is used to manufacture them: this metal has high thermal conductivity, which means it can efficiently carry heat and dissipate it across its surface.

Now, copper is already pretty good at what it does. With a thermal conductivity of approximately 401 W/mK at room temperature, it's second only to silver by a wee bit, while being a lot less expensive to procure. But aerospace engineers at University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) have discovered a material that blows those two out of the water with nearly thrice the thermal conductivity.

Metallic theta-phase tantalum nitride exhibits an ultrahigh thermal conductivity of 1,100 W/mK, which means it's way more efficient at transporting heat than copper and silver. Their conductivity is limited by the strong interactions between free-moving electrons and atomic vibrations called phonons.

That name just rolls off the tongue, doesn't it? It refers to a specific crystal structure of this metallic compound which has certain properties – similar to how carbon can be found in the form of soft graphite, and also as hard diamond.

Using molecular structure analysis techniques like synchrotron-based X-ray scattering and ultrafast optical spectroscopy, the researchers found unusually weak electron-phonon interactions in this specific configuration of tantalum nitride. This allows for super-efficient heat flow through the material with a lot less resistance, vastly exceeding what we see with copper and silver. The findings were published in the journal Science this month.

"As AI technologies advance rapidly, heat-dissipation demands are pushing conventional metals like copper to their performance limits, and the heavy global reliance on copper in chips and AI accelerators is becoming a critical concern," explained Yongjie Hu, a professor at the UCLA Samueli School of Engineering who led the study.

This metallic material could prove to be a desirable alternative to copper in heat sinks – not just for computers and AI hardware, but also for aerospace systems and quantum computers that need to constantly run cool.

Source: UCLA

New material beats copper for heat dissipation

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

From market 'speed bumps' to recession odds, here are 3 major 2026 predictions from Goldman CEO David Solomon

January 28, 2026

David Solomon has laid out his big predictions for the path of markets and the economy in 2026.

The CEO of Goldman Sachs said he has a generally healthy outlook for markets and the US economy this year, though he also voiced some caution on emerging macro developments. Speaking to Bloomberg at Goldman's annual Asia-Pacific conference, he weighed in on what he expects to see through the rest of the year.

Uncertainty has defined the investing climate in recent months, with investors rattled by geopolitical events while concerns continue to mount over the health of the AI trade.

Here's what the banking exec thinks is coming next for markets:

1. The risk of a recession is just below 20%

The risk that the US economy will tip into a recession remains relatively low this year at just under 20%, Solomon estimated, calling the economic setup in the US especially "constructive."

"The base case for a recession is one out of seven," he said. "I think the chance of a recession this year is low in the US, and I don't think you'd see one unless there was some exogenous event that materially changed the current sentiment," he said.

Wall Street generally expects the US to avoid a downturn in 2026, given the investment flowing into AI, the Fed's rate-cutting cycle, and the growth-friendly policies from the Trump administration. The US economy is expected to have grown 5.4% in the fourth quarter, according to the latest estimate from Atlanta Fed economists.

2. Markets will have another strong year

Solomon said he expects 2026 to be a "strong capital markets year" around the world. He pointed to additional fiscal stimulus across various economies and to the move toward looser regulation in the US and Europe, a trend that's also thought to help stimulate the economy and support dealmaking.

More companies are also beginning to adopt AI, a trend that's likely to boost productivity and pave the way to higher economic growth and investment.

While there's a risk of a "potential bubble" brewing in AI stocks, the market rally appears to be broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven stocks, Solomon said, referring to how laggards like small-caps are now starting to outperform the market's top tech names.

"I think there's a broader level of participation and things are set up quite constructively for the next few years," he said.

3. Investors could hit geopolitical and regulatory "speed bumps"

While he's bullish on the outlook for markets, Solomon flagged the potential for hiccups along the way this year.

"There's a lot going on in the world. And as that stuff plays out, it can lead to speed bumps, or you know, distractions," Solomon said, pointing to last April, when President Trump's tariffs sparked a historic sell-off in stocks.

"The noise sometimes can sap confidence," Solomon added.

Investors have already gotten a few glimpses of how volatile the market could be this year. So far, stocks have been rattled by the US's raid on Venezuela, escalating tensions with Iran, and Trump's various threats to pressure Greenland into a sale, though equities have bounced back as tensions have subsided and Trump has eased his rhetoric on some of his policies.

From market 'speed bumps' to recession odds, here are 3 major 2026 predictions from Goldman CEO David Solomon

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, I’ve added this section.

Falling Battery Storage Costs Are Quietly Reshaping Electricity Markets

Featuring Christian Kaps. By Rachel Layne on January 23, 2026.

Sustainability and self-reliance motivated early adopters of solar energy and battery storage in Germany. Now, falling costs—and rising electricity prices—could compel more people to pull back from the grid.

As solar panel and battery prices drop, research by Harvard Business School Assistant Professor Christian Kaps predicts some 54% of German households would benefit from using a solar-battery combination. The rise of self-generated electricity would have major implications for German utilities and the country’s power grid, which gets a substantial, yet decreasing share of energy from fossil fuels.

Incentives and subsidies helped drive $807 billion in renewal energy investment globally in 2024 alone, as part of efforts to confront climate change. With electricity costs surging in many parts of the world, Germans stand to become producers and consumers of power in one of the most advanced clean-energy economies—even without such enticements.

“In many European countries, at least in many markets with higher electricity prices, solar and storage is going to be a profitable investment,” says Kaps, coauthor of “Residential Battery Storage—Reshaping the Way We Do Electricity” with Serguei Netessine, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The article is forthcoming in the journal Operations Research.

The shift wouldn’t be without consequences. Researchers predict that increased solar and storage adoption in Germany would reduce residential electricity demand by 38%, cutting utilities’ revenue. Rising generation and delivery costs could also challenge the industry’s pay-per-use model.

Rapid adoption, dizzying change

Since the early 2000s, solar panel prices have dropped 85%, the authors note. And the cost of lithium-ion batteries has dropped by nearly 90% during the decade until 2020. The trend helped spur a 20-fold increase in German household battery systems between 2015 and 2020.

As more households use battery storage, it becomes harder for utilities to predict how much electricity to generate and send to the grid—and when to do it. Demand from homes with battery-solar setups can drop to near zero when it’s sunny outside, but spike during cold, dark days that deplete home storage. It’s unlikely that most households will be totally self-sufficient and leave the larger electricity grid completely, the researchers write.

Why Germans turned to storage

Kaps and Netessine analyzed solar-storage adoption from 2018 through 2020, using data from 3,200 households served by the German firm Solarwatt. Back then, batteries cost almost twice as much as today, but consumers who installed them prioritized self-sufficiency and the potential to slash climate-damaging emissions, motives the authors call “nonmarket valuation.” The change cost households a median 29 euro cents (34 cents in the US) more per kilowatt hour than relying on the power grid.

“It was really this idea of, ‘I'm producing solar power myself. I want to use more of that myself,’” Kaps says. “It's a sustainability argument. Germany has a long history of debating how to generate electricity.”

More

Falling Battery Storage Costs Are Quietly Reshaping Electricity Markets | Working Knowledge

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Exponent Calculator

Enter values into any two of the input fields to solve for the third.

Exponent Calculator

This weekend’s music diversion.   Approx. 12 minutes.

Franz Horneck (c.1690-c.1724) - Fagottkonzert Es-Dur

Franz Horneck (c.1690-c.1724) - Fagottkonzert Es-Dur

Next, more fun with really big numbers. Where the US federal deficit is heading? Approx.20 minutes.

TREE vs Graham's Number - Numberphile

TREE vs Graham's Number - Numberphile

Finally, some of Scotland’s many castles. Pay attention to castle number 17. Sorry about some of the glaring mispronunciations. Approx. 29 minutes.  Next week, the castles of England. After that Ireland and the Wales.

25 Beautiful Castles in Scotland To Visit in 2025 | Scotland Travel Video

25 Beautiful Castles in Scotland 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 To Visit in 2025 | Scotland Travel Video

“I’m not strange, weird, off, nor crazy, my reality is just different from yours.”

President Trump, with apologies to Lewis Carroll.

Is It Still A Rules Based World? Whose Rules? A War Weekend?

Baltic Dry Index. 2002 -14       Brent Crude 70.13

Spot Gold  5246                         Spot Silver 111.07

US 2 Year Yield 3.53 -0.03

US Federal Debt. 38.671 trillion US GDP 31.108 trillion.

The natural tendency of government, once in charge of money, is to inflate and to destroy the value of the currency.

Murray Rothbard

Has Trump 2.0 and a tariff war on friend and foe alike destabilised global stock and commodity markets?

With increasingly wild unpredictable price swings becoming the new normal, where are the losses piling up? 

With Trump’s “beautiful armada” locked and loaded off Iran, will it be a war weekend for the Persian Gulf?

Gold rally stalls as prices drop 4% after a sharp run-up; Asia-Pacific stock markets trade mixed

Published Thu, Jan 29 2026 7:01 PM EST

Gold and silver prices fell Friday, after hitting record highs a day earlier, as investors book profits after a record-breaking rally this year.

Spot gold prices declined over 4% to $5,156.64 per ounce. The yellow metal remained around 20% higher year to date.

“A correction back to $5,000 with some consolidation around that price would be a normal pattern in a bull market,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, told CNBC. “The surprise is that it went from $3,000 to $5,500 without any significant correction ... So far this has been more of a melt-up than a traditional bull market in the precious metals.”

Silver prices fell over 5% to $110.26 per ounce. Year-to-date, the white metal’s price is still 53% higher.

Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets traded mixed after U.S. President Donald Trump said that he will announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair on Friday.

Speaking at the premiere of Melania, a film about first lady Melania Trump, he said the five-month search to replace current chair Jerome Powell was nearing its conclusion.

The process for selecting Powell’s replacement began in September with an 11-candidate field that included past and current Fed officials, economists, and Wall Street investment professionals.

South Korea’s Kospi advanced 1.23% while the small-cap Kosdaq added 0.99%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was 0.25% higher, and the Topix added 0.58%.

Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.23%.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index slid 0.71%, while the mainland CSI 300 was down 0.51%.

The head of Indonesia’s stock exchange has stepped down following the fallout from an MSCI warning of a potential downgrade. The Jakarta Composite climbed about 1% following the announcement.

Oil prices slid after Trump reportedly said that he intended to speak with Iran, even as the United States sent another warship to the Middle East and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the military stood ready to act on the president’s instructions. Trump offered no details on the scope or timing of any talks, nor on who would lead them.

Global benchmark Brent lost 1.43% to $69.7 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures traded 1.65% lower at $64.33 per barrel.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 were down 0.16%, as were Nasdaq 100 futures. Dow futures fell 112 points, or about 0.2%. Trump also endorsed a Senate deal to fund the vast majority of the federal government through the remainder of the fiscal year, easing near-term political uncertainty for investors.

Senators clinched a deal with just over a day until a partial government shutdown. They agreed to remove funding for the Department of Homeland Security from the package and pass the other five bills, while DHS will be funded by a stopgap.

Overnight in the U.S., the S&P 500 fell, bogged down by Microsoft, as traders reacted to the megacap technology company’s latest earnings results and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The broad market index slipped 0.13% to close at 6,969.01, while the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.72% to end at 23,685.12. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.11%, or 55.96 points, and settled at 49,071.56. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin shed more than 5% and hit its lowest level in almost two months.

Asia-Pacific markets mixed: Nikkei 225, Kospi, Jakarta Composite Index

Stocks tumble on bets Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed pick

January 30, 2026 1:46 AM GMT

SINGAPORE, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Stocks slumped while ​the dollar and bond yields shot up on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he has firmed his choice ‌for new Federal Reserve boss, with reports zeroing in on Kevin Warsh as the likely pick.

While Warsh, a former Fed Governor, is seen as an advocate of lower interest rates, he is also considered to be one of the less radical choices among the various names that have been raised and perhaps more cautious on heavy monetary stimulus than others.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS), opens new tab tumbled as much as 1.3%, extending the previous day's declines with the biggest one-day ‌slump of the past month.

S&P 500 e-mini futures slid 0.4%, Nasdaq e-mini futures were off 0.5% and precious ​metals plunged, after Reuters reported Warsh visited the White House for a meeting with Trump on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the matter.

Bloomberg News also reported that the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Warsh as the next Fed chair.

Warsh "is on record as saying he prefers lower rates," said ‍Damien Boey, portfolio strategist, Wilson Asset Management in Sydney "But the trade-off that he makes with lower rates is that he wants the Fed to have a smaller balance sheet," he added.

"The markets are reacting as if thinking: 'What would the world look like with a smaller Fed balance sheet?' "

On prediction market site Polymarket, the implied probability of contracts ⁠betting that Trump will nominate Warsh to lead the central bank surged to 92% from 35%.

The U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback's ‍strength against a basket of six currencies, was last up 0.3% at 96.481, reversing some recent weakness.

"We've definitely seen some dollar buying straight away on the back of ‌it," said ‌Tim Kelleher, head of institutional FX Sales at Commonwealth Bank in Auckland. "He's known to the markets and will probably calm things down slightly."

Asian stocks were led lower by declines in China, with a gauge of Chinese companies with listings in Hong Kong (.HSCE), opens new tab off 2.1%. MSCI's broadest gauge of equities outside of Japan remains on track for its best monthly performance in more than three years. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 (.N225), opens new tab slipped 0.1%.

Stocks in Jakarta (.JKSE), opens new tab ⁠rallied 1% after the head of Indonesia's ⁠stock exchange resigned, taking responsibility for ​a selloff triggered by a warning of a potential downgrade from index provider MSCI. It was the country's biggest stock rout since the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis.

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was last up 4.0 basis points at 4.265%. Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 86.6% probability that the U.S. ‍central bank will hold steady on rates at its next two-day meeting on March 18, compared with a 87.5% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool.

A faltering rebound for precious metals fell short after a choppy session on Thursday. Gold was last down 3.7% at $5,195.91, while silver plunged 6% to $109.10.

Brent crude was last down 1.4% ​at $69.70 as oil markets weighed geopolitical risks, after Trump on Thursday signed an executive ‍order declaring a national emergency and establishing a process to impose tariffs on goods from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba.

Also on Thursday, Trump said he was planning to talk ​to Iran amid rising tensions.

Bitcoin was last down 2.7% at $82,089.96, while ether tumbled 2.8% to $2,738.30.

Stocks tumble on bets Kevin Warsh is Trump's Fed pick | Reuters

In other news.

Trump warns Britain on China ties as Starmer hails reset

January 30, 2026 1:08 AM GMT

WASHINGTON/BEIJING, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump warned Britain against getting into business with Beijing as Prime Minister Keir Starmer lauded the economic benefits of resetting relations with China during a visit there on Friday.

As Western leaders reel from Trump's unpredictability, Starmer is the latest to head to China.

In three-hour talks with President Xi Jinping on Thursday, the British leader called for a "more sophisticated relationship" with improved market access, lower tariffs and investment deals while also discussing soccer and Shakespeare.

In Washington, however, replying to questions about the closer ties, Trump said, "Well, it's very dangerous for them to do that." He was speaking to reporters ahead of the premiere of the "Melania" film at the Kennedy Center.

He did not elaborate.

Trump, who plans to travel to China in April, threatened last week to impose tariffs on Canada after Prime Minister Mark Carney struck economic deals with Beijing on a recent visit.

A Downing Street spokesperson and China's foreign ministry did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Around the time of Trump's comments, Starmer told a meeting of the UK-China Business Forum in the Chinese capital that his "very warm" meetings with Xi had provided "just the level of engagement that we hoped for".

He added, "We warmly engaged and made some real progress, actually, because the UK has got a huge amount to offer."

Starmer hailed deals on visa-free travel and lower whisky tariffs as "really important access, symbolic of what we're doing with the relationship".

"That is the way that we build the mutual trust and respect that is so important," Starmer said.

More

Trump warns Britain on China ties as Starmer hails reset | Reuters

Trump says U.S. decertifying Bombardier Global Express until Canada certifies Gulfstream

Published Thu, Jan 29 2026 8:38 PM EST

President Donald Trump said on Thursday the U.S. was decertifying Bombardier Global Express business jets and threatened 50% import tariffs on other aircraft made in Canada until the country certified a number of planes produced by U.S. rival Gulfstream.

“Further, Canada is effectively prohibiting the sale of Gulfstream products in Canada through this very same certification process,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social. “If, for any reason, this situation is not immediately corrected, I am going to charge Canada a 50% Tariff on any and all aircraft sold into the United States of America.”

It was unclear what planes beyond Bombardier’s Global Express franchise would fall under Trump’s increased tariffs, including the Airbus A220 commercial jets made in Canada.

FlightRadar24 said on X there were more than 400 Canadian-made planes operating to and from U.S. airports as of about 0100 GMT on Friday.

Data provider Cirium said there were 150 Global Express aircraft in service registered in the U.S., operated by 115 operators.

Bombardier, General Dynamics-owned Gulfstream and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s office did not immediately respond when asked for comment.

Trump said Canada has refused to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700, and 800 jets. In April, the Federal Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency certified the Gulfstream G800 jet. Transport Canada, which is responsible for Canadian certification, did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

It was unclear how Trump would decertify the planes since that is the job of the Federal Aviation Administration, but he has made similar declarations in the past that were ultimately carried out, often with exemptions, by relevant agencies.

It was also not clear if the Federal Aviation Administration could revoke certifications for planes based on economic reasons or what that would mean for American owners of the planes and whether that would prevent them from operating in the United States. The FAA can revoke an airplane’s certification for safety reasons. The FAA declined immediate comment.

Certification process

Under global aviation rules the country where an aircraft is designed - the U.S. in Gulfstream’s case - is responsible for primary certification known as a type certificate, vouching for the design’s safety.

Other countries typically validate the decision of the primary regulator, allowing the plane into their airspace, but have the right to refuse or ask for more data. Following the Boeing 737 Max crisis, European regulators delayed endorsement of some U.S. certification decisions and pressed for further design changes, sparking tensions with the FAA.

As part of continuing U.S.-Canada tensions, Carney on Tuesday denied he had retracted comments that irritated Trump, and said almost nothing was normal in the United States.

Carney, citing U.S. trade policy, last week urged nations to accept the end of the rules-based global order that Washington had once championed. Due to U.S. tariffs on key Canadian imports, Carney is pushing to diversify trade away from the United States, which takes around 70% of all Canadian exports under terms of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade deal.

The FAA in December certified Bombardier’s Global 8000 business jet, the world’s fastest civilian plane since the Concorde with a top speed of Mach 0.95, or about 729 mph (1,173 kph). It was certified by Transport Canada on November 5.

Trump says U.S. decertifying Bombardier Global Express until Canada certifies Gulfstream

Germany's Merz: Europe found 'joy of self-respect' to defend rules-based world

January 29, 2026 10:42 AM GMT

BERLIN, Jan 29 (Reuters) - German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Thursday said Europe had found "self-respect" in standing up for a rules-based global order, and called for a stronger NATO within Europe while still extending the hand of cooperation to the United States.

Speaking to the German parliament, Merz also said that Europe will no longer be cowed by tariff threats, after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from using such tariffs as a tool to seize Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark.

Merz's speech underscored how European leaders have been emboldened to try to project European strength and values, after the standoff with Trump over Greenland, global trade ructions and nearly four years of war between Russia and Ukraine.

"For some weeks now, we have been seeing with increasing clarity the emergence of a world of great powers. Rough winds are blowing in this world, and we will feel their effects for the foreseeable future," Merz told lawmakers.

In recent weeks, "we have been able to experience something of the joy of self-respect", he said, adding that rules-based action and rules-based trade were not dead.

"More and more countries around the world are recognizing that the current global reorganization also presents an opportunity for all actors who prefer rules to arbitrariness and who see more advantages in free and fair trade than in the one-sided pursuit of sole self-interest," Merz said.

EU UNITED AGAINST TARIFF INTIMIDATION, MERZ SAYS

Merz was speaking a week after tensions with Trump came to a head over Greenland, threatening to blow apart the NATO alliance that has underpinned Western security since the end of World War Two.

His words echoed those of French President Emmanuel Macron who, in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, said Europe would not give in to bullies.

At the same event, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for a new form of European independence, while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said that in an age of great power rivalry democratic middle powers must build flexible coalitions together.

"Last week, we demonstrated that we in the EU can act swiftly when necessary. ​​We were united in our determination not to be intimidated by tariff threats again," Merz said.

Merz touted European Union trade deals with South American trade bloc Mercosur and with India as examples of Europe pushing ahead, adding that Europe should accelerate reforms and dial back regulation.

In a separate row after the Greenland dispute, Trump provoked widespread anger across Europe when he said European troops had stayed off the front lines in Afghanistan.

"Fifty-nine German soldiers lost their lives during the almost 20-year deployment in Afghanistan, and well over 100 were injured, some seriously, in combat and attacks," Merz told parliament.

"We will not allow this deployment to be denigrated or belittled."

Germany's Merz: Europe found 'joy of self-respect' to defend rules-based world | Reuters

Global Inflation/Stagflation/Recession Watch.

Given our Magic Money Tree central banksters and our spendthrift politicians, inflation now needs an entire section of its own.

Mark Cuban says a recession is coming: Media, restaurants, and gov-funded businesses will collapse first

January 28, 2026

Billionaire investor Mark Cuban recently shared in an interview that he believes a recession is imminent, aligning with broader economic forecasts. Several analysts estimate the probability of a recession at nearly 60%, suggesting that markets and macroeconomic indicators are increasingly pricing in a significant economic slowdown. These forecasts typically consider factors such as slowing economic growth, rising unemployment, and declining consumer spending.

Cuban's outlook stems from his extensive experience navigating market downturns and understanding economic cycles. He emphasised that layoffs tend to lead to lower revenue for businesses, and when consumers cut back on spending, sales decline. Business owners then feel the impact, creating a domino effect across sectors. Cuban pointed out that when the next recession hits, four industries could be the most vulnerable to collapse first.

Traditional Media's Dependence on Advertising Revenue

According to Cuban, the traditional media industry will be among the most susceptible during a recession. He argued that media companies are struggling to adapt to a shift in consumer attention from print newspapers to digital platforms. The industry's revenue heavily depends on advertising income, which tends to shrink during economic downturns.

The digital media landscape has become more fragmented, as audiences increasingly turn to social platforms like YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram. Additionally, advances in AI have made it easier to generate media content, diverting consumer interest away from traditional outlets. As a result, viewership and subscription numbers have declined, making it challenging for media companies to sustain their production budgets.

During a recession, advertisers typically cut back on marketing spend, which significantly impacts media organisations' revenue streams. To survive, these companies may need to collaborate with other brands and diversify their streaming channels or digital offerings, but the financial strain remains considerable.

Risks for Restaurants and Dining Sectors

Cuban identified the restaurant and dining industry as another sector likely to be hit hard in a US recession. Operating on very narrow profit margins—due to high labour and operating costs—even during periods of economic growth, this industry becomes particularly vulnerable when consumers tighten their discretionary spending.

He explained that restaurants are often the first to feel the effects of economic stress, especially with the rising wages and the pressure of food inflation. In recent years, the costs of basic ingredients have surged, squeezing margins further. This combination of wage pressures and rising food costs puts the sector at significant risk.

More

Mark Cuban says a recession is coming: Media, restaurants, and gov-funded businesses will collapse first

Technology Update.

With events happening fast in the development of solar power and graphene, among other things, I’ve added this section Updates as they get reported.

Realme P4 Power pairs 10,001mAh battery with 144Hz display

29 January 2026

The first global smartphone with a 10,000mAh battery is here. Realme today announced the Realme P4 Power in India, featuring a 10,000mAh battery, bold claims about its runtime, and a starting price of just Rs 28,999 (~$285). Talk about value.

A battery that’s doing most of the talking

The Realme P4 Power 5G’s biggest selling point is, unsurprisingly, its battery. With a capacity of 10,001mAh, this is one of the largest batteries you’ll find in a mainstream smartphone in India right now. 

Realme says it’s the world’s first 10,000mAh-plus battery to pass a military-grade shock resistance test (MIL-STD-810), which is an interesting claim for a phone that’s meant to be used daily.

Realme has also shared some bold endurance numbers. It claims up to 932 hours of standby, over 72 hours of calling, around 32 hours of YouTube playback, and more than 21 hours of navigation. Even gaming figures are impressive, with over 11 hours of BGMI gameplay on a single charge. 

Charging hasn’t been ignored either. Despite the huge battery, the phone supports 80W fast charging, along with 27W reverse wired charging for powering accessories. 

There’s also bypass charging, which lets users game or stream while plugged in without stressing the battery, and a “boost charging” feature that promises faster top-ups with a long press. 

Realme is also confident enough to offer a four-year battery health guarantee, and is even ready to replace the unit if health drops below 80 percent. The service, however, is only applicable to first-sale units. 

More

Realme P4 Power pairs 10,001mAh battery with 144Hz display

Next, the world global debt clock. Nations debts to GDP compared.

World Debt Clocks (usdebtclock.org)

Another weekend and another new war weekend? Hopefully not. Have a great weekend everyone.

Throughout history governments have been chronically short of revenue. The reason should be clear: unlike you and me, governments do not produce useful goods and services that they can sell on the market; governments, rather than producing and selling services, live parasitically off the market and off society.

Murray Rothbard